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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 14
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: NTT Data Corp, Total Access Communication, LG Energy Solution, Omron Corp, Alibaba (ADR), Temc, WCP, Lumen Technologies, Oracle Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • NTT Buying NTT Data Shares – ¥40bn to Go
  • DTAC/True Merger: The Court Dismisses the Consumer Council’s Petition
  • Korean Pair Trades Review in 2022
  • Omron (6645) | Key Beneficiary of Industry 4.0
  • China ADRs Delisting – Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks
  • EQD | Alibaba (BABA US): Revisiting the December Call Ratios
  • TEMC IPO Preview
  • Recent IPOs Carrying Putback Option in Korea: Market’s Attention Is on WCP
  • Lumen Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Oracle: Key Considerations For Long-Term Investors From Yet Another Strong Quarter

NTT Buying NTT Data Shares – ¥40bn to Go

By Travis Lundy

  • NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) and NTT Data Corp (9613 JP) did a deal earlier this year to sell NTT’s global data business to NTT Data. Discussed here.
  • NTT sold 55% of its current overseas business in NTT Communications, Dimension Data, and NTT Security Group, in return getting 45% of NTT Data’s current global business, plus ¥112bn. 
  • NTT would then spend ¥100bn of the ¥112bn increasing its stake. So far it has spent ¥58.39bn buying 18% of volume every day since Oct 1.

DTAC/True Merger: The Court Dismisses the Consumer Council’s Petition

By Arun George

  • The Administrative Court has dismissed the Thai Consumers Council petition to impose an injunction on the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.
  • Telenor ASA (TEL NO) and CP Group are currently seeking clarification on certain NBTC conditions such as tariff adjustments and MVNOs network capacity. 
  • Completion is targeted for 1Q23. The current share price ratio of 9.072x vs exchange ratio of 10.221x is attractive. Timing and tweaks to the exchange ratio are risks.

Korean Pair Trades Review in 2022

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we review all the 16 Korean pair trade ideas in 2022.
  • A few of the best performing pair trade ideas this year included long LG Chem/short LGES, long Doosan Corp/short Doosan Enerbility, and long KIH/short MFG.
  • Going forward in 2023, as the market continues to show higher volatility, there could be continued strong interest in pair trade ideas in Korea. 

Omron (6645) | Key Beneficiary of Industry 4.0

By Mark Chadwick

  • Omron is a structural growth stock that has fallen by 39% YTD reflecting near term risks to growth and margins
  • We believe that Omron is a major beneficiary of continued investment in automation and the shift to Industry 4.0
  • We analyse Omron’s core value drivers – revenue, margins, risk and reinvestment – and see 35% upside

China ADRs Delisting – Friday Could Be Judgment Day for over US$800bn Mcap of Stocks

By Sumeet Singh

  • PCAOB officials concluded their Hong Kong visit last month and PCAOB is due to announce its annual judgment on whether it had adequate access to US listed China companies.
  • The Hong Kong visit was on the back of the 26th Aug 2022 announcement by PCAOB and CSRC that they had entered into an agreement with US authorities for access.
  • In this note, we’ll talk about the latest developments, possible outcomes and implications.

EQD | Alibaba (BABA US): Revisiting the December Call Ratios

By Simon Harris

  • In November we published on the upside potential in Alibaba 
  • Stock has rallied and the call ratio we recommended has performed very well
  • We evaluate the trade and look at potential trade options

TEMC IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • TEMC is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in January 2023. TEMC is a materials company that produces specialty gases for the semiconductor and display production processes.
  • The IPO price range is from 32,000 won to 38,000 won and the expected market cap is expected to be from 361 billion won to 429 billion won. 
  • The company’s sales increased at a 57.4% CAGR from 2019 to 2021. Its sales exploded higher by 254% YoY to reach 238 billion won in 1Q-3Q 2022.

Recent IPOs Carrying Putback Option in Korea: Market’s Attention Is on WCP

By Sanghyun Park

  • WCP has the largest gap between the exercise and current prices (-16%). And its retail allocation is also the largest (5.44% of SO). In addition, it is subject to short-selling.
  • The deadline is January 2nd. A large-scale option exercise will be unavoidable if the share price does not exceed ₩54,000 by that date.
  • It is very likely that WCP’s share price will experience strong downward pressure for a week after January 2nd. We need to consider a position setup that actively utilizes this.

Lumen Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Lumen Technologies is a big player in the facilities-based technology and communications domain.
  • The customer experience offered by them continues to improve, driven by the company’s very high NPS as well as customer e-scores for both the upper end of the company’s customer base and Quantum Fiber.
  • Apart from that, Lumen Technologies has been expanding its premier residential as well as Quantum Fiber aggressively in over 30 cities and metro areas.

Oracle: Key Considerations For Long-Term Investors From Yet Another Strong Quarter

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Oracle continues to outperform its peers and the broader equity market after reporting yet another strong quarter.
  • The cloud application segment continues to deliver, the infrastructure side of the business deserves more attention, according to analysts and market commentators.
  • The early signs were plain to see a couple of years back, says analyst.

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Dec 14
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Origin Energy, Gujarat Ambuja Exports and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Origin Energy: Gas Price Cap Compromises Brookfield’s Offer
  • Gujarat Ambuja Exports

Origin Energy: Gas Price Cap Compromises Brookfield’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 10 November, Brookfield and EIG/MidOcean offered Origin Energy (ORG AU) shareholders $9.00/share, a 54.9% premium to last close, by way of a Scheme. The Offer is non-binding.
  • On the 9 December, the Aussie government said it would take action to limit the worst impacts of the forecast gas price increases to protect Australian households, industry, and manufacturers.
  • This includes a temporary price cap on new domestic wholesale gas contracts by east coast producers, such as Origin, for 12 months.

Gujarat Ambuja Exports

By Gauri Anand

  • Company holds pole position in corn starch processing in India with ~ 25% market share; but accounts for a significant share of industry’s profit pool. 
  • Further expanded capacity by 40% (1200tpd) just last week and another 25% expansion is planned for Q4FY24E, the 60%+ capacity expansion will drive volume led growth forward.
  • Cost pressures (commodity, energy) to abate in FY24E. Formidable player, capital efficient business, cost leadership, net cash stature, low valuations(<10x PER, <1x EV/Sales), favors investment.

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Dec 14
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Toyo Construction, Okk Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyo (1890) Says “We Reject”. YFO Says “But We Didn’t Talk”. Medium-🌶🌶🌶 Hostile Activism To Ensue
  • Nidec (6594) To Take Over Nidec OKK (6205), Squeezing Out Minorities

Toyo (1890) Says “We Reject”. YFO Says “But We Didn’t Talk”. Medium-🌶🌶🌶 Hostile Activism To Ensue

By Travis Lundy

  • In March, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) agreed to be bought out by INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) for ¥770/share. One activist objected, and bought 28%. They then said they’d pay ¥1,000.
  • The Infroneer deal failure started an acrimonious back and forth. The hostility lessened over the summer, but despite activist Yamauchi Family Office’s protestations of love, no deal as of November.
  • Today saw another press release, delaying things. The contents are 🌶🌶🌶.  NOW things are getting more interesting. Hostility is back. Medium-spicy. Three 🌶 out of five.

Nidec (6594) To Take Over Nidec OKK (6205), Squeezing Out Minorities

By Travis Lundy

  • Small machine tool maker OKK used to be good for about ¥2bn in EBITDA, then that dropped to the low ¥1bns on average, then the last two years were negative. 
  • A year ago, Nidec agreed to inject capital and buy 66.6% of OKK – Now Nidec OKK – for peanuts. Yesterday, the two agreed a scrip merger on 1 March.
  • The process and ratio leave a LOT to be desired but they only need 66.67% and with 66.66% already, it’s a done deal. Nothing you can do about it.  

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Dec 14
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Toyo Construction, Okk Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyo (1890) Says “We Reject”. YFO Says “But We Didn’t Talk”. Medium-🌶🌶🌶 Hostile Activism To Ensue
  • Nidec (6594) To Take Over Nidec OKK (6205), Squeezing Out Minorities

Toyo (1890) Says “We Reject”. YFO Says “But We Didn’t Talk”. Medium-🌶🌶🌶 Hostile Activism To Ensue

By Travis Lundy

  • In March, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) agreed to be bought out by INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) for ¥770/share. One activist objected, and bought 28%. They then said they’d pay ¥1,000.
  • The Infroneer deal failure started an acrimonious back and forth. The hostility lessened over the summer, but despite activist Yamauchi Family Office’s protestations of love, no deal as of November.
  • Today saw another press release, delaying things. The contents are 🌶🌶🌶.  NOW things are getting more interesting. Hostility is back. Medium-spicy. Three 🌶 out of five.

Nidec (6594) To Take Over Nidec OKK (6205), Squeezing Out Minorities

By Travis Lundy

  • Small machine tool maker OKK used to be good for about ¥2bn in EBITDA, then that dropped to the low ¥1bns on average, then the last two years were negative. 
  • A year ago, Nidec agreed to inject capital and buy 66.6% of OKK – Now Nidec OKK – for peanuts. Yesterday, the two agreed a scrip merger on 1 March.
  • The process and ratio leave a LOT to be desired but they only need 66.67% and with 66.66% already, it’s a done deal. Nothing you can do about it.  

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Dec 14
0

Daily Brief Financials: Omni Bridgeway, Cromwell Property, KFin Technologies, Seazen (Formerly Future Land), Akros Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)
  • MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Cromwell Property (CMW) Is a Deletion
  • KFin Technologies Pre-IPO – Large Domestic Player Continues to Get Larger
  • Morning Views Asia: Yuexiu Property
  • Line Parent’s VC Firm Leads $2.3m Funding for Korean ETF Startup

S&P/​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: A Busy March (Maybe January and February Too)

By Brian Freitas

MVIS Australia A-REITs Index Rebalance: Cromwell Property (CMW) Is a Deletion

By Brian Freitas

  • Cromwell Property (CMW AU) is a deletion from the MVIS Australia A-REITS Index at the close on 16 December.
  • Passive trackers will need to sell 13.9m shares (5 days ADV) of Cromwell Property (CMW AU) and there appears to be little to no pre-positioning on the stock.
  • There are a few other stocks that will have over 0.5 days of ADV to buy from passive trackers.

KFin Technologies Pre-IPO – Large Domestic Player Continues to Get Larger

By Clarence Chu

  • KFin Technologies (1804170D IN) is looking to raise around US$300m in its India IPO.
  • KFin Technology (KFin) is a technology driven financial services platform providing comprehensive services and solutions to the capital markets ecosystem.
  • Under its offering, it primarily serves asset managers and corporate issuers domestically, while providing investor solutions for mutual funds and private retirement schemes in other regions.

Morning Views Asia: Yuexiu Property

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Line Parent’s VC Firm Leads $2.3m Funding for Korean ETF Startup

By Tech in Asia

  • Akros Technologies, a South Korea-based fintech firm, has raised US$2.3 million in a strategic funding round.
  • The fundraise was led by ZVC – the investment arm of Line Corporation parent Z Holdings.
  • Founded last year, Akros Technologies manages its own exchange-traded funds (ETFs) powered by machine learning models. 

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Dec 14
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Haidilao, Endeavour Group, Sula Vineyards, Seven & I Holdings, Xtep International, Weilong Delicious Global and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Haidilao’s Imminent SpinOff of the Super Hi Overseas Business – Index Treatment and Implications
  • Endeavour Group Placement – Recent Momentum Has Been Very Weak
  • Sula Vineyards IPO: Forensic Analysis
  • 2021 & 2022 High Conviction Review: Time’s Up For Seven & I But Japan Tobacco Has More Room to Run
  • Long-Term Growth Intact: Xtep
  • Weilong Delicious Global IPO Trading – Liked by Retail but Still at a Premium

Haidilao’s Imminent SpinOff of the Super Hi Overseas Business – Index Treatment and Implications

By Travis Lundy

  • On 11 July, Haidilao (6862 HK) announced it would propose to spin off its international restaurant business (13-15% of revenue) to shareholders and employees. Shareholders approved in August.
  • There were interim announcements and indeed interim reports with some information, but not a lot. But Super Hi International Holding was headed for separate listing in HK. 
  • Last week, Haidilao said it was going ahead with a Listing by Introduction pending listing approval by HKEX. Haidilao shares go ex- 16 December. Index providers have announced treatment.

Endeavour Group Placement – Recent Momentum Has Been Very Weak

By Sumeet Singh

  • Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU) plans to raise around US$438m via selling 5.5% of Endeavour Group (EDV AU).
  • Endeavour Group was demerged from Woolworths in Jun 2021 and it runs the drinks and hospitality business of Woolworths.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Sula Vineyards IPO: Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Sula Vineyards (1332009D IN) has currently come up with its IPO. The ~INR 9.6 bn IPO comprises offer for sale and has a price band of INR 340-357 per share.
  • The company is a market leader with a market share crossing 50% in a relatively nascent INR 13.45 bn domestic 100% grape wine market.
  • Key forensic takeaways that one should consider is high litigation liabilities, emphasis on related party transactions, irrational dividends and absurd trend of line items.

2021 & 2022 High Conviction Review: Time’s Up For Seven & I But Japan Tobacco Has More Room to Run

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • As the year draws to a close, we took time to assess the effectiveness of our high-conviction calls made during the past two years.
  • With further dividend hikes looking increasingly possible, our 2022 high-conviction call, Japan Tobacco (2914 JP) has more room to run this year.
  • However, it’s probably the right time to take profits from our 2021 high-conviction trade, Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) as the US gas-stations profitability maxed-out in the last quarter.

Long-Term Growth Intact: Xtep

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • 4Q22 retail sales was negatively affected by the covid restrictions
  • Sales growth is expected to recover in 1Q23 with China’s nationwide loosening policy.
  • Long term growth is intact with continued upgrades of brands, products and channels

Weilong Delicious Global IPO Trading – Liked by Retail but Still at a Premium

By Sumeet Singh

  • Weilong Delicious Global (WDG), a spicy snack food company in China, raised around US$130m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • According to F&S, WDG ranked first among spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and in the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snacks categories.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

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Dec 14
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Acotec Scientific Holdings, Intuitive Surgical, GlaxoSmithKline PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – Logic Behind Boston Scientific’s Partial Offer and the Impact
  • Intuitive Surgical Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Approvals & Other Drivers
  • GlaxoSmithKline ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Other Drivers

Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669.HK) – Logic Behind Boston Scientific’s Partial Offer and the Impact

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Boston Scientific angles for majority stake with US$523 million for Acotec Scientific Holdings (6669HK), which is the largest acquisition of a Chinese medical device company by a MNC since 2014.
  • Completion of the Partial Offer would further strengthen Boston Scientific’s presence in China and create the potential for commercialization of Acotec products globally. It’s a win-win deal for both sides.
  • Companies listed in HKEX don’t have to seek valuation within HKEX system. If they can find “new anchor points”, they’ll have higher valuation.Chapter 18A companies’ future stock prices would diverge.

Intuitive Surgical Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Recent Approvals & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Intuitive Surgical, one of the largest players in robotic surgery offerings across the globe.
  • Korean growth remained steady, while Japanese procedure growth quickened compared to Q2.
  • We initiate coverage on the stock of Intuitive Surgical with a ‘Hold’ rating.

GlaxoSmithKline ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world.
  • The company is making a significant performance in both operating performance and R&D productivity.
  • GSK continued disciplined cost control by prioritizing investments in the growth for supporting launches in Vaccines and Specialty Medicines, namely Shingrix.

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Dec 13
0

Daily Brief ESG: Is Effective Reform Only Possible After Future Problems with High-Risk Companies? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Is Effective Reform Only Possible After Future Problems with High-Risk Companies?

Is Effective Reform Only Possible After Future Problems with High-Risk Companies?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Large audit firms focus on more profitable business and improving the profitability of their audit services. Consequently, high-risk firms that have been withdrawn from large firms flow to small-and-medium-sized firms.
  • “Enhancement of governance, including third-party evaluation function” is crucial to ensure that the audit firm has system to oversee and objectively determine the appropriateness of audit process and audit opinion.
  • Smaller audit firms will comply with the guidelines just for show, but only when future problems with high-risk firms arise will effective reforms be made in accordance with the guidelines.

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Dec 13
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Terra Collapse Returns to the Spotlight and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Terra Collapse Returns to the Spotlight

Terra Collapse Returns to the Spotlight

By Kaiko

  • Price Movements: BTC’s correlation with BNB has dropped significantly since FTX’s collapse, a sign that Binance’s token is diverging from wider markets. 
  • Market Liquidity: Curve, the DEX optimized for stablecoin swaps, is still mostly used by whale traders. 
  • Derivatives: Tron futures skew bearish after the network’s native stablecoin, USDD, depegged to $.97.

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Dec 13
0

Daily Brief Credit: IDEX Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • IDEX Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, Greenko Energy Holdings, Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings
  • AutoZone Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Newmont Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

IDEX Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • IDEX Corporation is an industrial giant and is often in the news for its acquisition-led growth moves.
  • The company’s recent financial performance has been strong with double-digit growth in organic sales across its three segments: Fluid & Metering Technologies, Health & Science Technologies, and Fire & Safety/Diversified Products.
  • IDEX’s overall backlog positions remain strong though its operating margin has negatively impacted by incremental depreciation from recent acquisitions.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, Greenko Energy Holdings, Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

AutoZone Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • AutoZone is one of the largest players in the distribution of automotive replacement parts and accessories in the U.S.
  • The company has been delivering a decent set of results in recent times after the impact of the pandemic has gone down.
  • However, its domestic, commercial sales make up 30% of its domestic auto parts sales.

Newmont Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Newmont Corporation is among the global leaders in the exploration and production of gold.
  • They are also stepping up development operations in Subika Underground and achieved record production drill meters while advancing the mine’s third production level’s development.
  • The arrival of a second underground production drill might help deliver the fourth quarter’s anticipated development and the ensuing ore tonnes in 2023.

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