Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Salesforce delivered a strong financial performance for fiscal year 2025, showcasing significant progress in its AI and Data Cloud initiatives.
The company reported annual revenue of $37.9 billion, reflecting a 9% increase from the prior year, with fourth-quarter revenue reaching $10 billion—its first-ever $10 billion quarter.
Subscription and support revenue grew by 10% in constant currency, indicating continued demand for its enterprise software solutions.

The TJX Companies: How Consumer Demographic Diversification Is Playing A Critical Role In Its Strategy!

The TJX Companies, Inc. reported robust financial performance in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, exceeding expectations in multiple areas.
With net sales of $16.4 billion, which marks a 5% increase over last year’s adjusted figures, the company demonstrated consistent strength across all divisions.
The driving factor was a 5% increase in consolidated comparable store sales, which stemmed from increased customer transactions.

Home Depot’s Surprise Sales Rebound—But Is It Enough to Overcome a Tough 2025?

Home Depot’s latest financial results presented a mixed picture, with some encouraging signs of recovery despite a cautious outlook for the coming year.
Total sales for fiscal 2024 rose 4.5% to $159.5 billion, though comparable sales for the year declined by 1.8%.
However, fourth-quarter same-store sales showed improvement, rising 0.8%—breaking an eight-quarter streak of declines and exceeding analysts’ expectations of a 1.5% drop.

Light & Wonder Inc.: Expanding Gaming Business To Strengthen Market Reach & Capture Growth!

Light & Wonder reported a solid performance in their fiscal year, demonstrating growth across multiple segments.
The company’s strategic focus on sustainable growth has been underscored by their expansion and strengthening of product offerings, resulting in record revenues and profitability.
The acquisition of Grover Gaming’s charitable gaming business represents a strategic entry into a high-barrier market with favorable competitive advantages.

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (III)

By Patrick Liao

Intel Corp (INTC US) has hired Mr. Lip-Bu Tan as the new CEO effective March 18th. He was formerly a board member of Intel before resigning in June 2024.
The A18 technology node marks a new beginning for Intel Corp (INTC US), which is believed to be the new hope, but we approach it with caution.
Intel Corp (INTC US) should focus on developing its own technology and also consider using Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) as an insurance policy.

Permian Resources: The Enhanced Operational Efficiencies

Permian Resources reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results, demonstrating stability and growth in its operations.
The company delivered its highest-ever production and free cash flow per share metrics in Q4 2024.
Effective field execution and a focus on cost control led to a significant reduction in drilling and completion (D&C) costs, while maintaining a robust cash flow.

Upcoming Spin-Offs: Key Details

By Richard Howe

So far in 2025, there have been 5 new US spin-off announcements. Meanwhile 3 new spin-offs have started trading.
Spin-off stock performance was strong in 2024, but performance has turned over a bit in the last month.
On February 6, 2025, Honeywell International (HON) announced its plans to separate into three independent public entities:

The Hartford Financial Services Group: An Enhanced Pricing & Risk Management Strategy!

The Hartford Financial Services Group’s recent earnings highlighted both commendable achievements and areas of concern for the company.
The reported outcomes for the fourth quarter and the full year 2024 underscore the company’s solid financial performance, propelled by strategic initiatives and a disciplined approach to underwriting and pricing.
Positive aspects include robust growth across different sectors, with Commercial Lines witnessing a 6% growth in the fourth quarter and 9% for the year.

Globe Life Inc.: Share Repurchase & M&A Strategy to Effectively Navigate Competitive Market Dynamics!

Globe Life reported a fourth-quarter net income of $255 million, or $3.01 per share, compared to $275 million, or $2.88 per share, in the prior year.
Net operating income increased 12% to $266 million, or $3.14 per share.
Return on equity stood at 21.7%, while book value per share, excluding accumulated other comprehensive income, rose 13% to $86.40.

Cincinnati Financial Corporation: Geographic & Product Diversification to Seize Emerging Opportunities In The Dynamic Insurance Sector!

Cincinnati Financial Corporation presented its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings results for 2024, with a focus on improving operational performance and premium growth, as well as resilience despite external challenges.
Operating performance showcased a robust gain with highlights such as a stronger combined ratio and a significant rise in both premium and investment income compared to the previous year.
However, these results were contextualized by challenges posed by the California wildfires, which affected forecast performance.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 17

Daily Brief China: CK Hutchison Holdings, Tencent, HKBN Ltd, Xiaomi Corp, Great Wall Motor, Zai Lab , Ping An Healthcare and Technology, Hang Seng Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence
Tencent (700 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights
HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech and Banks Still Leading
Xiaomi (1810 HK): Overpriced Volatility Ahead of 2024 Results
A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening
China Healtchare Weely (Mar.16) – 2025 VBP Instructions, GLP-1s Cooling Down, Zai Lab’s Headwinds
Xiaomi Earnings: Option Market Expectations, Past Performance and Hedge Opportunities
Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook
HSI Index Options Weekly (March 10-14): Flat Week but Still and Strong Relative Performer

CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence

On 13 March, Ta Kung Pao, a Hong Kong newspaper owned by the Chinese government and Communist Party, denounced CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)’s planned port transaction.
The opinion piece is mainly political rhetoric, as even if China managed to block the deal, it would still not address the underlying concerns expressed in the article.
In the near term, the shares will likely be under pressure from a nationalistic backlash. Nevertheless, deal or no deal, the valuation remains undemanding.

Tencent (700 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

Tencent (700 HK) / Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) is set to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025.
Options pricing implies a 4-6% move after earnings, significantly higher than historical patterns. From an options perspective, calendar spreads offer opportunities.
Tencent‘s significant index weighting, around 8% in key Hong Kong indices, means its earnings has the potential to impact broader market performance.

HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion

By David Blennerhassett

China Mobile (941 HK) has made a pre-conditional HK$5.23/share voluntary Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). However, a possible separate Offer from I Squared continues to make the news.
In an unusual move, MBK, via Twin Holding, has converted HK$970.5mn of VLNs, at a whopping HK$11.60/share conversion price, lifting MBK’s stake to 16.39% on a fully diluted basis.
Speculation is rife that MBK provides an irrevocable to I Squared for its enlarged shareholding. Maybe. I still don’t see China supporting a U.S.-based infrastructure firm over an SOE .

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech and Banks Still Leading

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped again somewhat but still high at HK$625bn. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$61bn which is HUGE.
The flows here are still striking. >25% of the top 100 most liquid Southbound eligible stocks saw SOUTHBOUND buy more than 10% of weekly traded volume to March 12.
A summary of important China-related stock news as I saw it this week is included.

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Overpriced Volatility Ahead of 2024 Results

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is set to announce 2024 results after the close on 18 March.
Options markets imply a price movement in excess of historic averages, creating trading opportunities through calendar spreads and short straddles that capitalize on March’s elevated implied volatility.
Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is a major constituent in key Hong Kong indices (HSI Index, HSCEI Index, and HSTECH Index). Its post-results move will likely impact the broader market.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 14 Mar 2025): AH Premia Still Falling; Expect Curve Torsion or AH Widening

AH Premia continue to fall. Spread curve torsion was a barbell this week. Narrow and wide spreads see Hs outperform. Middling spreads outperform less.
To me, warning signs are flashing on spreads. They are at their narrowest in 5yrs and they are volatile, though volatility is coming down.
Lots of spreads see the HA premium less than 15%. That is historically tight.

China Healtchare Weely (Mar.16) – 2025 VBP Instructions, GLP-1s Cooling Down, Zai Lab’s Headwinds

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The NHSA has issued clear instructions for VBP in 2025, including two batches of national VBP of drugs and one batch of medical consumables VBP. TCM will also be included.
The sales growth of GLP-1s has entered a turning point, it will be far from the previously high expectations. The actual market size of GLP-1s could be only US$100 billion.
Rapid sales growth of Efgartigimod is the key factor for Zai Lab to narrow the losses.But whether it can be breakeven relies on the decline of cost/expenses, not revenue growth.

Xiaomi Earnings: Option Market Expectations, Past Performance and Hedge Opportunities

Xiaomi earnings are upcoming. We analyze what the options market is pricing and examine historical trends and tendencies.
Historical earnings reactions show notable differences across quarters, with Q4 standing out for its downside risk.
We outline a tactical hedge that minimizes jump risk while taking advantage of extended implied volatility.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

PAGD’s 2024 performance beat expectations. The support of Ping An Group remains the key for PAGD to turning losses into profits. A breakthrough point is the Senior care services business.
The CAGR of PAGD’s revenue could be 12%-15% from 2025 to 2027, and revenue in 2027 may reach RMB6.5-7 billion. The peak revenue scale could be just about RMB8 billion.
Adjusted net profit could reach RMB250-300 million in 2025 and exceed RMB400 million in 2027.If based on P/S of 2-3x, revenue of RMB6.5-7 billion in 2027, valuation is RMB13-21 billion.

HSI Index Options Weekly (March 10-14): Flat Week but Still and Strong Relative Performer

We look into whether long or short volatility strategies on the HSI have been the most effective.
Implied volatility remained under pressure as muted trading and weak price action weighed on implied volatility.
Despite finishing lower, HSI remained a strong relative performer among global indexes, particularly against SPX.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 17

Daily Brief Japan: Tsuruha Holdings, Seven & I Holdings, Japan Post Bank, Canon Inc, Nikkei 225 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio
Merger Arb Mondays (17 Mar) – Seven & I, Tenma, Proto, OneConnect, Vesync, Tam Jai, Insignia
Retail Media Can Help Pay for a ¥2 Trillion Buyback
ECM Weekly (17th Mar 2025) -JPB, Recruit, Austal, BoB, Chifeng, Guarantee, Anjoy, Softcare, AvePoint
Canon (7751) | The Cash Printer
Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Mar 10–14): Assessing Long Vs. Short Vol Strategies & Returns Vs. SPX

Tsuruha (3391) – Welcia (3141) – Tsuruha Earnings In a Week – Still Good To Be Long The Ratio

Tsuruha and Welcia are on the road to a merger, where Tsuruha takes over Welcia but Aeon ends up owning “more than 50% but less than 51%” of Tsuruha.
The Price Ratio is now 4.24x. Trailing EPS ratios is >5. Forward EPS ratios are further above 5. BVPS ratio? Near 5. Welcia grows storecount. Tsuruha makes more money/store.
Tsuruha changed its FY-end to match that of Welcia/Aeon so both will report earnings/guidance in just over 3 weeks. That will likely influence the ratio.

Merger Arb Mondays (17 Mar) – Seven & I, Tenma, Proto, OneConnect, Vesync, Tam Jai, Insignia

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Tenma Corp (7958 JP), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), OneConnect Financial Technology (OCFT US), Soundwill Holdings (878 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU).
Lowest spreads: Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Proto Corp (4298 JP), PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU).

Retail Media Can Help Pay for a ¥2 Trillion Buyback

By Michael Causton

Seven & I continues to seek shareholder approval for its own path, offering not just improved efficiency but a massive ¥2 trillion buyback albeit one over a long time frame.
This is a lot, especially when the core Seven Eleven chain in Japan is still struggling to keep up with its peers on monthly growth rates.
But this forgets retail media which is set to become a major new income stream for CVS and, judging by forecasts, would help pay for a chunk of that buyback.

ECM Weekly (17th Mar 2025) -JPB, Recruit, Austal, BoB, Chifeng, Guarantee, Anjoy, Softcare, AvePoint

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, we had a look at a few of the upcoming listings in Hong Kong.
On the placements front, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) managed to do better than its last deal while Austal Ltd (ASB AU) didn’t do too well.

Canon (7751) | The Cash Printer

By Mark Chadwick

Earnings Momentum in 2025 – Canon expects 5% revenue growth and 17% EBIT expansion this year, driven by high-margin segments like semiconductor lithography, medical devices, and network cameras.
Aggressive Shareholder Returns – With ¥350 billion in planned buybacks and dividends in 2024, Canon’s 6.8% TSR and strong free cash flow offer a compelling value proposition.
De-Risked Upside – 2025 guidance provides earnings visibility, while valuation suggests ~40% upside, supported by resilient end-markets and an under-leveraged balance sheet.

Nikkei Index Options Weekly (Mar 10–14): Assessing Long Vs. Short Vol Strategies & Returns Vs. SPX

We assess the effectiveness of short volatility versus long volatility positioning.
Nikkei’s performance relative to SPX is analyzed across three distinct time frames.
Volatility remained muted ahead of next week’s Bank of Japan meeting, while option volumes increased week over week.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 17

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Spartan Resources /Australi, Rio Tinto Ltd, Hindustan Zinc, Permian Resources , Sealed Air Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade
Ramelius/Spartan Merger: MergeCo Close to ASX100 Index Inclusion
Spartan Resources (SPR AU): A Rumoured Merger with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)
Weekly Deals Digest (16 Mar) – Rio Tinto, De Grey, HKBN, ESR, Seven & I, Makino, Tenma, JXAM
Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) Silver Rally Is a Sweetener
Permian Resources: The Enhanced Operational Efficiencies
Sealed Air Corporation: Will Its Effort Towards Pricing Strategy & Resin Cost Management Pay Off?

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade

By Brian Freitas

There are 7 adds for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in March. There are plenty of float and capping changes too.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$610m. There are 11 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) and Ora Banda Mining (OBM AU) will be added to some of the S&P/ASX indices at the same time, increasing flow and impact.

Ramelius/Spartan Merger: MergeCo Close to ASX100 Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) have signed a binding Transaction Implementation Deed to enter into a ‘Transformational Combination’.
For each share of Spartan Resources (SPR AU) held, shareholders will receive A$0.25 in cash and 0.6957 Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) shares, implying a value of A$1.78/share for Spartan Resources.
The merger is expected to complete late July/ early August, and the merged entity could be added to the S&P/ASX 100 Index in September.

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): A Rumoured Merger with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

The AFR reports that Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) are in advanced talks about a low-premium merger through a scheme of arrangement.
A merger will result in synergies due to more significant gold production and lower costs. By adding ore to Mount Magnet, Spartan could fix Ramelius’ near-term production gap.
My analysis suggests an exchange ratio of around 0.82x (0.82x RMS share per SPR share). This implies an SPR price of A$1.80, a 12.8% premium to the last close.

Weekly Deals Digest (16 Mar) – Rio Tinto, De Grey, HKBN, ESR, Seven & I, Makino, Tenma, JXAM

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) to list on 19 March.
Event-Driven developments: Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), De Grey Mining (DEG AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), ESR Group (1821 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Tenma Corp (7958 JP).

Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) Silver Rally Is a Sweetener

By Rahul Jain

Hindustan Zinc (HZ IN) is set to see significant earnings upgrades driven surge in silver prices (40% EBITDA share), local currency weakness and benign costs.
Planning for major US$2-2.5b growth expenditure to double output over next 3=5 years.
Valuations: Entering a strong earnings upgrades cycle. Stock can re-rate despite trading at slight premium to historic averages. Stake sales by key holders is a risk.

Permian Resources: The Enhanced Operational Efficiencies

Permian Resources reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 results, demonstrating stability and growth in its operations.
The company delivered its highest-ever production and free cash flow per share metrics in Q4 2024.
Effective field execution and a focus on cost control led to a significant reduction in drilling and completion (D&C) costs, while maintaining a robust cash flow.

Sealed Air Corporation: Will Its Effort Towards Pricing Strategy & Resin Cost Management Pay Off?

Sealed Air Corporation’s recent earnings provided a comprehensive overview of the company’s performance, touching on both achievements and areas for improvement.
The company has been focusing on stabilizing business performance, strengthening its leadership team, and transforming its operations into two market focused segments: Food and Protective.
Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 17

Daily Brief Industrials: CK Hutchison Holdings, Rheinmetall AG, Honeywell International and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence
EURO STOXX50: Fast-Entry In June Or Inclusion In September 2025 For Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR)
Upcoming Spin-Offs: Key Details

CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence

On 13 March, Ta Kung Pao, a Hong Kong newspaper owned by the Chinese government and Communist Party, denounced CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)’s planned port transaction.
The opinion piece is mainly political rhetoric, as even if China managed to block the deal, it would still not address the underlying concerns expressed in the article.
In the near term, the shares will likely be under pressure from a nationalistic backlash. Nevertheless, deal or no deal, the valuation remains undemanding.

EURO STOXX50: Fast-Entry In June Or Inclusion In September 2025 For Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR)

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR) surged ~65% over the last month and is now passing the sector coverage threshold resulting in its selection list qualification and rank of ~26.
Fast-Entry inclusion to Euro STOXX50 can be triggered at the June 2025 quarterly review if RHM’s price increases by ~4% to reach the fast-entry rank of 25.
RHM’s inclusion at the September 2025 annual review has a high probability given a failed fast-entry in June. Kering (KER FP) is the main deletion candidate.

Upcoming Spin-Offs: Key Details

By Richard Howe

So far in 2025, there have been 5 new US spin-off announcements. Meanwhile 3 new spin-offs have started trading.
Spin-off stock performance was strong in 2024, but performance has turned over a bit in the last month.
On February 6, 2025, Honeywell International (HON) announced its plans to separate into three independent public entities:

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 17

Daily Brief Industrials: CK Hutchison Holdings, Rheinmetall AG, Honeywell International and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence
EURO STOXX50: Fast-Entry In June Or Inclusion In September 2025 For Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR)
Upcoming Spin-Offs: Key Details

CK Hutchison (1 HK): Political Turbulence

On 13 March, Ta Kung Pao, a Hong Kong newspaper owned by the Chinese government and Communist Party, denounced CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)’s planned port transaction.
The opinion piece is mainly political rhetoric, as even if China managed to block the deal, it would still not address the underlying concerns expressed in the article.
In the near term, the shares will likely be under pressure from a nationalistic backlash. Nevertheless, deal or no deal, the valuation remains undemanding.

EURO STOXX50: Fast-Entry In June Or Inclusion In September 2025 For Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR)

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Rheinmetall AG (RHM GR) surged ~65% over the last month and is now passing the sector coverage threshold resulting in its selection list qualification and rank of ~26.
Fast-Entry inclusion to Euro STOXX50 can be triggered at the June 2025 quarterly review if RHM’s price increases by ~4% to reach the fast-entry rank of 25.
RHM’s inclusion at the September 2025 annual review has a high probability given a failed fast-entry in June. Kering (KER FP) is the main deletion candidate.

Upcoming Spin-Offs: Key Details

By Richard Howe

So far in 2025, there have been 5 new US spin-off announcements. Meanwhile 3 new spin-offs have started trading.
Spin-off stock performance was strong in 2024, but performance has turned over a bit in the last month.
On February 6, 2025, Honeywell International (HON) announced its plans to separate into three independent public entities:

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Mar 17

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent, Technology One, HKBN Ltd, Xiaomi Corp, Salesforce.Com Inc, Canon Inc, Hang Seng Index, Intel Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Tencent (700 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights
MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: SIG, TNE Added; US$288m Trade
HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech and Banks Still Leading
Xiaomi (1810 HK): Overpriced Volatility Ahead of 2024 Results
Xiaomi Earnings: Option Market Expectations, Past Performance and Hedge Opportunities
Salesforce.Com Inc – Salesforce’s Growth Is Slowing—Can Agentforce Turn Things Around?
Canon (7751) | The Cash Printer
HSI Index Options Weekly (March 10-14): Flat Week but Still and Strong Relative Performer
Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (III)

Tencent (700 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

Tencent (700 HK) / Tencent Holdings (ADR) (TCEHY US) is set to announce Annual 2024 Results on 19 March 2025.
Options pricing implies a 4-6% move after earnings, significantly higher than historical patterns. From an options perspective, calendar spreads offer opportunities.
Tencent‘s significant index weighting, around 8% in key Hong Kong indices, means its earnings has the potential to impact broader market performance.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: SIG, TNE Added; US$288m Trade

By Brian Freitas

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) and Technology One (TNE AU) will be added to the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) at the close on 21 March.
Surprisingly, there are no deletions from the index. The two inclusions, float changes and capping changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.6% leading to a round-trip trade of A$288m.
There will be huge buying of A$1.2bn in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) at the same time from S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) and related index trackers.

HKBN (1310 HK): MBK Ups Stake Via VLN Conversion

By David Blennerhassett

China Mobile (941 HK) has made a pre-conditional HK$5.23/share voluntary Offer for HKBN Ltd (1310 HK). However, a possible separate Offer from I Squared continues to make the news.
In an unusual move, MBK, via Twin Holding, has converted HK$970.5mn of VLNs, at a whopping HK$11.60/share conversion price, lifting MBK’s stake to 16.39% on a fully diluted basis.
Speculation is rife that MBK provides an irrevocable to I Squared for its enlarged shareholding. Maybe. I still don’t see China supporting a U.S.-based infrastructure firm over an SOE .

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 14 Mar 2025); Big Volumes, Big Net; Tech and Banks Still Leading

Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes dropped again somewhat but still high at HK$625bn. NET buying by SOUTHBOUND was HK$61bn which is HUGE.
The flows here are still striking. >25% of the top 100 most liquid Southbound eligible stocks saw SOUTHBOUND buy more than 10% of weekly traded volume to March 12.
A summary of important China-related stock news as I saw it this week is included.

Xiaomi (1810 HK): Overpriced Volatility Ahead of 2024 Results

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is set to announce 2024 results after the close on 18 March.
Options markets imply a price movement in excess of historic averages, creating trading opportunities through calendar spreads and short straddles that capitalize on March’s elevated implied volatility.
Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK) is a major constituent in key Hong Kong indices (HSI Index, HSCEI Index, and HSTECH Index). Its post-results move will likely impact the broader market.

Xiaomi Earnings: Option Market Expectations, Past Performance and Hedge Opportunities

Xiaomi earnings are upcoming. We analyze what the options market is pricing and examine historical trends and tendencies.
Historical earnings reactions show notable differences across quarters, with Q4 standing out for its downside risk.
We outline a tactical hedge that minimizes jump risk while taking advantage of extended implied volatility.

Salesforce.Com Inc – Salesforce’s Growth Is Slowing—Can Agentforce Turn Things Around?

Salesforce delivered a strong financial performance for fiscal year 2025, showcasing significant progress in its AI and Data Cloud initiatives.
The company reported annual revenue of $37.9 billion, reflecting a 9% increase from the prior year, with fourth-quarter revenue reaching $10 billion—its first-ever $10 billion quarter.
Subscription and support revenue grew by 10% in constant currency, indicating continued demand for its enterprise software solutions.

Canon (7751) | The Cash Printer

By Mark Chadwick

Earnings Momentum in 2025 – Canon expects 5% revenue growth and 17% EBIT expansion this year, driven by high-margin segments like semiconductor lithography, medical devices, and network cameras.
Aggressive Shareholder Returns – With ¥350 billion in planned buybacks and dividends in 2024, Canon’s 6.8% TSR and strong free cash flow offer a compelling value proposition.
De-Risked Upside – 2025 guidance provides earnings visibility, while valuation suggests ~40% upside, supported by resilient end-markets and an under-leveraged balance sheet.

HSI Index Options Weekly (March 10-14): Flat Week but Still and Strong Relative Performer