Smartkarma Daily Briefs

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

We believe shares of Douzone Bizon are deeply oversold and ready for a turnaround.
The company is increasingly buying back shares. Treasury shares as a percentage of total outstanding shares increased from 0% at end of 2021 to 9.3% at end of 1Q 2023.
Korean government’s plans to boost the domestic software industry by spending more than 560 billion won in the software industry is also likely to positively benefit the company this year.

History Could Repeat For Apple With A Hardware High

By Kevin George

Apple’s stock reached an all-time high ahead of the 2023 Worldwide Developer Conference.
The company unveiled its mixed-reality headset, Apple Vision Pro, which could revolutionize communications and be a game-changer for the metaverse.
McKinsey predicts that the headset could be a $5 trillion opportunity by 2030.

ADEA: Undiscovered AI

By Hamed Khorsand

ADEA could be the most under the radar artificial intelligence (“AI”) beneficiary through its patent portfolio related to hybrid bonding
Hybrid bonding is expected to help usher the next generation of semiconductors to handle the growing need for speed and bandwidth with lower power consumption
ADEA’s stock has been mainly valued on the free cash flow it is able to generate from its media patent portfolio with little value given to ADEA’s semiconductor patent portfolio

Hogy Medical (3593 JP): Mixed FY23 Result; Soaring Cost to Negatively Impact Profit in FY24

By Tina Banerjee

Hogy Medical (3593 JP) reported mixed FY23 result. Revenue and operating profit were ahead of guidance while net profit missed guidance mainly due to a one-off loss of ¥464M.
For FY24, Hogy guided for 5% revenue growth. However, operating, and net profits are expected to decline 23% and 19%, respectively, due to rising costs and exchange rate fluctuations.
While Hogy will continue cost cutting and improving productivity, the company is not expected to fully offset the cost pressure. Hence near-term outlook for the company remains bleak.

AViC (9554 JP) – 2Q Follow Up

By Sessa Investment Research

AViC announced its 2HFY9/23 earnings on May 15.
For 1H,Oct.–Mar., AViC posted net sales of ¥730 mn, +30.1% YoY, and operating profit of ¥140 mn, a slight year-on-year decline of 5.1%.
On account of a deterioration in the funding environment for start-up companies, AViC lost some of its start-up clients, which account for a percentage of clients that is not insignificant, and saw others cut their budget.

Alibaba Health Information Technology (241.HK) FY2023 – A Slowdown in Future Growth Seems Inevitable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Against a backdrop of slowing revenue/active users growth, a return to profit in FY2023, while welcome, is shaky.We think Alibaba Health’s growth would continue to slow down in the future.
The low gross profit and strong regulatory characteristics of drug sales indicate that Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK) is difficult to replicate the scale effect brought by traditional internet platforms.
The current business model and revenue structure have already made Alibaba Health lack imagination space.From a comprehensive perspective, its valuation should be lower than JD Health but higher than PAGD.

Elevance Health: A Critical Update (Rating Downgrade)

Elevance Health, Inc. has been active in the M&A market with the divestiture of its life disability business and a “new markets” acquisition.
However, evidence suggests that success is not guaranteed, according to the company.
The company’s stock has been downgraded to a moderate buy.

McKesson Corporation: A Streamlined Portfolio After Recent Divestitures – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

McKesson managed an all-around beat in the last quarter, closing out a solid fiscal 2023 with full-year revenues of $277 billion and adjusted earnings per diluted share of $25.94.
The core Pharmaceutical Distribution business supported growth in the U.S.
Pharmaceutical segment, and they divested their European operations to streamline their portfolio.

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Jun 06

Daily Brief Event-Driven: ENM (128 HK): Chinachem Takeover and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

ENM (128 HK): Chinachem Takeover
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jun 2023)
Yitai Coal (3948 HK): Offer Open with H Share Class Meeting on 30 June
EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Risk/Reward Profile
Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review – Still Fastie, Nitori, Zozo, and Lasertec as Interesting Names
Austal (ASB AU): Privatisation on the Cards?
Yitai Coal (3948 HK): H-Shareholders To Vote on 30th June

ENM (128 HK): Chinachem Takeover

By David Blennerhassett

Fashion wear retailer ENM Holdings (128 HK) has received a delisting Offer from major shareholder, Chinachem.
The Scheme consideration of HK$0.58 is a 24.7% premium to last close, although shares popped 24% prior to suspension.
The Offer price is final. There is probably enough here for the Offer to get up. But there is potentially significant value to be unlocked from recent land rezoning.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jun 2023)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
Zuiko Corp (6279 JP), Anycolor (5032 JP), and Lifedrink (2585 JP) will have TOPIX Inclusion events at the end of June (Zuiko) or July 2023 (the other two).
One of our pre-event TOPIX Inclusion candidates CELSYS (3663 JP) has experienced sharp price moves over the last few weeks.

Yitai Coal (3948 HK): Offer Open with H Share Class Meeting on 30 June

Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Company Ltd (3948 HK)‘s H Share buyback offer at HK$17.50 per H Share is open. The H class meeting is on 30 June.
The key conditions are approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (<10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection). There is a 90% minimum acceptance condition.
The de-rating of the peers, likely supportive substantial H Shareholders and no major retail opposition should help hit the 90% threshold. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread is 4.7%/23.9%.

EOFLOW/Medtronic Tender: Risk/Reward Profile

Medtronic Plc (MDT US) aims to acquire Eoflow (294090 KS) through share purchase agreements (SPA), a share subscription agreement (SSA) and a public tender offer at KRW30,000.
The shares are trading wide to terms due to key risks – regulatory approvals and the minimum acceptance condition (Medtronic owns 53.02% of the post-SSA outstanding shares).
The regulatory approvals should be forthcoming due to minimum competition issues. The minimum acceptance condition requires a minority acceptance rate of 15.7%, which is achievable due to an attractive offer.

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 Review – Still Fastie, Nitori, Zozo, and Lasertec as Interesting Names

By Travis Lundy

The Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 review has 2 months left of data collection. That means the rankings are quasi-fixed. So then the question is what to do with them.
There is a consultation in progress. You still have one week to respond, but that doesn’t change the names.
The top inclusion is the big one in dollar terms but low in liquidity. The next two are likely to be consumer names, and much more impactful.

Austal (ASB AU): Privatisation on the Cards?

Media reports indicate that Austal Ltd (ASB AU) is in the crosshairs of investors looking to take the company private.
In an announcement, Austal Ltd (ASB AU) said it is regularly involved in discussion with strategic parties to create value for shareholders.
The recent large contract from the US Navy, potentially more contracts in the pipeline and a weak AUD could result in investors paying up to take the company private.

Yitai Coal (3948 HK): H-Shareholders To Vote on 30th June

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 9 May, Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Company Ltd (3948 HK) announced an H-share buyback at HK$17.50/share.
With no pre-conditions attached to this hybrid Scheme/Tender Offer, my expectation was this could be wrapped up by mid-August.
The dispatch of the Offer Document yesterday evening indicates even this timeline was conservative, with payment potentially occurring in the third week of July.

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Jun 05

Daily Brief Singapore: Golden Energy & Resources and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Deals Digest (04 Jun) – Golden Energy, Challenger, ENM, Golden Eagle Retail, Amman Mineral

Weekly Deals Digest (04 Jun) – Golden Energy, Challenger, ENM, Golden Eagle Retail, Amman Mineral

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – Amman Mineral Internasional (1416286D IJ), Tata Technologies (TATATECH IN), JD Industrials (2231713D CH) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments – Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP), Challenger Technologies (CHLG SP), Enm Holdings (128 HK), Golden Eagle Retail (3308 HK), Metro Pacific Investments Co (MPI PM), Yashili.

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Jun 05

Daily Brief Japan: Nexon and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Nexon Founder Family Hands Over 4.7 Trillion Won Worth of NXC to Korean Government

Nexon Founder Family Hands Over 4.7 Trillion Won Worth of NXC to Korean Government

The late Nexon founder Kim Jung-Ju’s family recently paid nearly 4.7 trillion won worth of inheritance taxes to the Korean government by handing over 29.3% stake (paid-in-kind) in NXC Corp.
We view this handing over the 29.3% stake to the Korean government to be positive overall on Nexon in the near term.
However, we do not expect this could bring about change in controlling ownership of the Nexon Group in the near term to result in re-rating of the Nexon Group shares.

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Jun 05

Daily Brief United States: SoFi and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Beyond Student Loans

Beyond Student Loans

By subSPAC

With the inception of the pandemic, borrowers have largely been wrestling with financial distress, compelling fintech companies like SoFi technologies, which banks on student loan financing, to largely reimagine their business model.
SoFi has moved away from its core business over the past three years, instead casting a wider net, extending its services to include diverse financial products, personal loans, and its banking-as-a-service business targeting enterprise customers.
In 2023, SoFi has had to grapple with mounting external pressures emanating from a slowing economy.

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Jun 05

Daily Brief China: Cafe De Coral Holdings, Enm Holdings, Golden Eagle Retail, CStone Pharmaceuticals, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding, T.S. Lines, Health And Happiness (H&H) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September
ENM Holdings (128 HK): Privatisation Bid at HK$0.58 Per Share
Merger Arb Mondays (05 Jun) – Golden Eagle Retail, ENM, AAG, Yashili, Golden Energy, Challenger Tech
China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.2) – New Era for Medical Device, Shareholders’ Reduction in CXO, Cstone
Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding (601607.CH/2607.HK) – The Situation of Undervaluation Would Change
TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation
Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

Fenbi Ltd (2469 HK) was added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the close Friday and will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from open of trading today.
We see 22 potential adds, 19 potential deletes, couple of close deletes, 5 deletes on prolonged suspension and 4 close liquidity deletes for the HSCI in September.
There are 11 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.

ENM Holdings (128 HK): Privatisation Bid at HK$0.58 Per Share

Enm Holdings (128 HK) announced a privatisation offer from Chime Corporation at HK$0.58 per scheme share, a 54.7% premium to the undisturbed price of HK$0.375 per share (24 May).
The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% disinterested shareholders rejection). No shareholder holds a blocking stake. The offer price is final.
Detractors will argue the offer is low due to ENM’s net cash (75% of the market cap). However, the offer is reasonable compared to historical multiples and share prices.

Merger Arb Mondays (05 Jun) – Golden Eagle Retail, ENM, AAG, Yashili, Golden Energy, Challenger Tech

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – 111 Inc (YI US), Enm Holdings (128 HK), United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Hailan Holdings (2278 HK).
Lowest spreads – Healius (HLS AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Challenger Technologies (CHLG SP), Lian Beng (LBG SP), SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU).

China Healthcare Weekly (Jun.2) – New Era for Medical Device, Shareholders’ Reduction in CXO, Cstone

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

In the second half of this year, innovative device companies could be listed on the SSE STAR Market one after another, which is a systematic opportunity.
Shareholders’ reduction in CXO will continue. Then, CXO could become a company mainly controlled by various funds, with the original owners all cashing out and leaving, such as WuXi AppTec.
We analyzed some key points of CStone Pharmaceuticals (2616 HK). We remain conservative about the Company, and its stock price may continue to remain weak.

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding (601607.CH/2607.HK) – The Situation of Undervaluation Would Change

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Different from peers whose pharmaceutical assets are scattered in different listed companies, all assets/resources of SH Pharma are integrated within the Company. The intrinsic value of this model is greater.
SH Pharma is in a traditional industry, facing weak profitability and negative policy impacts, Thus, the Company lacks attractiveness and imagination space for investors, leading to long-term undervaluation.
Considering the transformation to more high-margin businesses, SH Pharma’s performance/profitability would improve. Since China hopes to establish a valuation system with Chinese characteristics, there’s valuation repair opportunity for SH Pharma.

TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

By Daniel Hellberg

In terms of fleet characteristics, market exposure, and recent financial performance, we believe T.S. Lines (TSL HK) and Taiwan’s Wan Hai Lines (2615 TT) are directly comparable
WHL has more exposure to the Transpacific, but still boasts a much larger Intra-Asia operation owing to its scale advantage (fleet and revenue about four times the size of TSL)
Given the similarities we outline in this insight, we believe TSL’s shares should trade at EV/Fleet and EV/Revenue multiples in line with WHL’s; no premium is justified, in our view

Morning Views Asia: NagaCorp Ltd

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

NagaCorp Ltd

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Jun 05

Most Read: BrainChip Holdings, TVS Motor , Cafe De Coral Holdings, Rakuten, YFY Inc, Nexon, Enm Holdings, Golden Eagle Retail and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Tax-Loss Selling in Australia – Brief Historical Analysis And A Trade Basket
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300/500, Chinext, China Semi Chips, Nifty Next50, SET50, REMX
HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September
Heads Up: Selling Event of a 30% Stake in NXC (Nexon Parent Company) Is Coming Soon
Last Week in Event SPACE:Tax-Loss Selling In Australia, China Conch/Anhui Conch, Canon, Rakuten
Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun 23 Rebal: 15/18 as Expected; Some Surprises, US$1.1bn+ One Way
Nexon Founder Family Hands Over 4.7 Trillion Won Worth of NXC to Korean Government
ENM Holdings (128 HK): Privatisation Bid at HK$0.58 Per Share
Merger Arb Mondays (05 Jun) – Golden Eagle Retail, ENM, AAG, Yashili, Golden Energy, Challenger Tech
Ohayo Japan |Stocks Soar on Debt Resolution/Jobs/China; NUGGET: Where Nvidia Goes, Advantest Follows

Tax-Loss Selling in Australia – Brief Historical Analysis And A Trade Basket

By Travis Lundy

I am not a tax advisor and I do not play one on TV but it is a subject of interest in Australia, as an AFR article last year shows.
The general gist of the idea is that retail investors in Australia will take gains on things which run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses.
Below I present a study using data from 2012-2022 of how a basket portfolio trade might work.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: CSI300/500, Chinext, China Semi Chips, Nifty Next50, SET50, REMX

It was a busy week with index rebalance implementations and announcements of index changes.
The coming week has the KOSPI200 and KOSDAQ150 rebalancing on Thursday and a bunch of onshore China indices rebalancing on Friday.
There were big inflows to China ETFs during the week while the largest inflows went to the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong Ltd (2800 HK) ETF.

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September

Fenbi Ltd (2469 HK) was added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the close Friday and will be added to Southbound Stock Connect from open of trading today.
We see 22 potential adds, 19 potential deletes, couple of close deletes, 5 deletes on prolonged suspension and 4 close liquidity deletes for the HSCI in September.
There are 11 potential deletions where holdings via Stock Connect are more than 20% of shares outstanding. There could be some unwinding of positions over the next couple of months.

Heads Up: Selling Event of a 30% Stake in NXC (Nexon Parent Company) Is Coming Soon

By Sanghyun Park

As reported by a local news outlet (YTN), the Korean government will soon list the NXC stake on Onbid, the government’s online auction system (www.onbid.co.kr).
If the right buyer acquires the 30% stake in NXC, the family members may also sell their stake, leading to an unexpected price impact for Nexon (3659 JP).
Timing is critical, and the Korean government must aim to list the stake on Onbid as soon as possible, given its current revenue shortfall issue.

Last Week in Event SPACE:Tax-Loss Selling In Australia, China Conch/Anhui Conch, Canon, Rakuten

By David Blennerhassett

Australian tax-loss selling is a thing. Retail investors will take gains on things that run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses.
The China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) / Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH) ratio is at an all-time low. The implied stub is re-testing its all-time low.
Historically, Canon (7751 JP)‘s buybacks are aggressive. It may pay to observe market data to see when they are done. It may also pay to look at peer outperformance cycles.

Quiddity TDIV/50/100 Jun 23 Rebal: 15/18 as Expected; Some Surprises, US$1.1bn+ One Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

In this insight, we take a look at the final ADDs/DELs for the TDIV, T50, and T100 Indices for the June 2023 Rebalance.
Across these three indices there will be 18 changes and 15 of them were in line with expectations.
Our updated flow expectations show that there could be US$1.1bn one-way flow in the June 2023 rebalance.

Nexon Founder Family Hands Over 4.7 Trillion Won Worth of NXC to Korean Government

The late Nexon founder Kim Jung-Ju’s family recently paid nearly 4.7 trillion won worth of inheritance taxes to the Korean government by handing over 29.3% stake (paid-in-kind) in NXC Corp.
We view this handing over the 29.3% stake to the Korean government to be positive overall on Nexon in the near term.
However, we do not expect this could bring about change in controlling ownership of the Nexon Group in the near term to result in re-rating of the Nexon Group shares.

ENM Holdings (128 HK): Privatisation Bid at HK$0.58 Per Share

Enm Holdings (128 HK) announced a privatisation offer from Chime Corporation at HK$0.58 per scheme share, a 54.7% premium to the undisturbed price of HK$0.375 per share (24 May).
The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% disinterested shareholders rejection). No shareholder holds a blocking stake. The offer price is final.
Detractors will argue the offer is low due to ENM’s net cash (75% of the market cap). However, the offer is reasonable compared to historical multiples and share prices.

Merger Arb Mondays (05 Jun) – Golden Eagle Retail, ENM, AAG, Yashili, Golden Energy, Challenger Tech

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – 111 Inc (YI US), Enm Holdings (128 HK), United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU), Estia Health (EHE AU), HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Hailan Holdings (2278 HK).
Lowest spreads – Healius (HLS AU), Liontown Resources (LTR AU), Challenger Technologies (CHLG SP), Lian Beng (LBG SP), SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP), Newcrest Mining (NCM AU).

Ohayo Japan |Stocks Soar on Debt Resolution/Jobs/China; NUGGET: Where Nvidia Goes, Advantest Follows

By Mark Chadwick

OVERSEAS. US Equities Soar on Debt Resolution and Payrolls; Markets continue to price in Fed Pause; Leaks about China Property stimulus support sentiment; Saudi Arabia slashes oil output.
JAPAN. NKY Futs +1.4% vs Cash; JP bid to continue after US Rally; Inflation pushing households to stocks; Japan prioritizes hydrogen; Companies face a raft of proposals at June AGMs
NUGGET. Where Nvidia Goes, Advantest Follows; Advantest now simply just a proxy on Nvidia’s share price

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Jun 05

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Nexon and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Nexon Founder Family Hands Over 4.7 Trillion Won Worth of NXC to Korean Government

Nexon Founder Family Hands Over 4.7 Trillion Won Worth of NXC to Korean Government

The late Nexon founder Kim Jung-Ju’s family recently paid nearly 4.7 trillion won worth of inheritance taxes to the Korean government by handing over 29.3% stake (paid-in-kind) in NXC Corp.
We view this handing over the 29.3% stake to the Korean government to be positive overall on Nexon in the near term.
However, we do not expect this could bring about change in controlling ownership of the Nexon Group in the near term to result in re-rating of the Nexon Group shares.

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Jun 05

Daily Brief Industrials: Golden Energy & Resources, T.S. Lines and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Deals Digest (04 Jun) – Golden Energy, Challenger, ENM, Golden Eagle Retail, Amman Mineral
TS Lines Pre-IPO | Like Wan Hai Lines, but Smaller | Intra-Asia Update | Approaches to Valuation

Weekly Deals Digest (04 Jun) – Golden Energy, Challenger, ENM, Golden Eagle Retail, Amman Mineral