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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief ECM: Hanwha Ocean Placement – Recent Run-Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Hanwha Ocean Placement – Recent Run-Up, Results Make It Tricky
  • KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing
  • Ather Energy IPO | Showroom and Service Center Visits
  • Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Another Insurance IPO Possibility on the Horizon
  • Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention


Hanwha Ocean Placement – Recent Run-Up, Results Make It Tricky

By Sumeet Singh

  • Korea Development Bank (KDB) plans to raise around US$740m via selling around 5%+ stake in Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS).
  • HO’s shares have nearly tripled since the start of the year, and the company reported its results today.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing

By Sanghyun Park

  • KDB sells 4.3% of total shares, offloading about one fifth of its holdings. The price range was 81,265–81,710 won, at an 8.51–9.00% discount, totaling 1.056–1.062 trillion won.
  • With more float and passive buying (KOSPI 200) potential, plus shipbuilding momentum, the stock’s pullback likely won’t exceed today’s discount — it might be worth taking a swing.
  • There’s buzz KDB might sell its HMM stake through block trades, like Hanwha Ocean. However, with HMM’s cash reserves, a tender offer seems more likely to drive stock action instead.

Ather Energy IPO | Showroom and Service Center Visits

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Ather Energy (1207922D IN) IPO opened today (April 28, 2025) with a price band of Rs 304-321 per share, and will remain open until April 30, 2025. 
  • This insight focuses on our takeaways from visiting various Ather Showroom and Service Centers across the Country. 
  • The product quality, service feedback and product positioning is relatively better than competition. The product is good, business probably not. 

Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

  • Guangzhou Xiao Noodles Catering Management (GXNCM) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CMBI and CLSA.
  • It’s a leading Chinese noodle restaurants operator in China, operating under the Xiao Noodles brand, offering value-for-money cuisines.
  • Under its dual model of corporate-owned and franchising, it focuses on corporate-owned restaurants in first-tier & new first-tier cities in China.

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Another Insurance IPO Possibility on the Horizon

By IPO Boutique

  • Aspen Insurance Holdings filed for its IPO in December 2023 and saw its filing refreshed in December 2024 and once again on March 20th, 2025.
  • This company was acquired by private-equity titan Apollo Global in a transaction announced in August 2018 and closing in February 2019. 
  • For the twelve months ended December 31, 2024, they wrote $4,609 million in gross written premiums marking a 16.2% increase from the same period in 2023. 

Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Like peers, we saw the performance growth slowdown of Auntea Jenny in 2024, mainly due to industry slowdown and intensified competition. Auntea Jenny does not have advantage in lower-tier markets.
  • Auntea Jenny relies on third-party suppliers, with insufficient cold chain coverage, resulting in weak cost control.It’s difficult to maintain the current profit margin level. Franchisees may be forced to quit.
  • Valuation of Auntea Jenny should be lower than Guming and MIXUE. Considering the weak fundamentals and uncertain outlook, it is already good if valuation could be similar to Baicha Baidao.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns
  • Next Target After Hanwha for Regime Change Momentum Play: SK Inc’s Share Cancellation
  • Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued
  • Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer
  • Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family Reloads At S$0.895/Share
  • Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair
  • Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Conditional VGO at S$0.895
  • Lions Gate Studios Spin-off Deep Dive
  • Potential Takeovers, Legal Battles, and Strategic Reviews: Key Updates on THTX, SWTX, LQDA and More
  • Event Driven: Mahindra & Mahindra Acquired SML Isuzu, Strengthening Presence in CV


Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns

By Arun George

  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP) shares were set to hit the daily upper limit of JPY16,225 due to press reports of a privatisation bid valuing it at JPY6 trillion. 
  • Toyota Industries confirmed receiving a going-private proposal from a special purpose company, while Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said it is considering all possibilities, including a partial investment. 
  • There are still several unknowns, including the price, the identity of the offeror, potential irrevocable commitments, the financing structure, and the timeline. 

Next Target After Hanwha for Regime Change Momentum Play: SK Inc’s Share Cancellation

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local traders are betting SK Inc will preemptively announce a treasury share cancellation before the June election, positioning it as the center of the regime change momentum play.
  • From a trading perspective, SK Inc could rally as a “buyback stock” and offer NAV gap trading opportunities.
  • Another option could be an event-driven hedge strategy: go long on SK and short index futures post-election. If Lee Jae-myung wins, SK could outperform, but the broader market may drop.

Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

By Brian Freitas

  • Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV. 
  • Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.
  • There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.

Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) entered into a scheme implementation deed with Novomatic, its controlling shareholder, at A$1.00 per share, a 35.1% premium to the unaffected price.
  • The final offer is unattractive. Kanen Wealth Management opposes the offer. The lack of irrevocables from Spheria and Allan Gray adds to the vote risk.   
  • Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance condition, thereby limiting the downside risk.

Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family Reloads At S$0.895/Share

By David Blennerhassett

  • Amara Holdings (AMA SP), a property/hotel play, has announced a best-and-final conditional S$0.895/share cash Offer, a 27% to undisturbed and a lifetime high, from the controlling Teo family.
  • If Amara sounds familiar, in November 2023, the family launched  a best-and-final unconditional cash Offer at S$0.60/share as discussed in Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family’s Lifetime High Offer.
  • This new Offer has a 90% acceptance condition. Irrevocables tally 90.58%. Done and done. 

Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on 27th March, the family trust of the Widjaja Family made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 29.7% in Sinarmas Land (SML SP) not held.
  • Pricing was uninspiring: the S$0.31 cash Offer (not final) for the (mainly) Indo property play was a 12.9% premium to undisturbed; and a 73.9% discount to the 1H24 S$1.19/share NAV.
  • The IFA agreed and said “Not Fair but Reasonable”, with an estimated fair value range of S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. This (still) needs a bump. But that is looking less likely.

Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Conditional VGO at S$0.895

By Arun George

  • Amara Holdings (AMA SP) has disclosed a voluntary conditional offer from a three-member consortium at S$0.895 per share, a 27.0% premium to the last close price. 
  • Irrevocables, including from the 2023 VGO offeror, represent 90.58% of the outstanding shares, ensuring that the 90% minimum acceptance condition will be satisfied and the offer will be declared unconditional. 
  • The offer price is final. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high, and is 49.2% above the 2023 VGO price. 

Lions Gate Studios Spin-off Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

  • Lionsgate Entertainment (LGFA/LGFB) recently approved the spin-off of Lionsgate Studios (LION). The spin-off should happen within a few weeks.

  • Lionsgate Studio has carved out a niche as a lean, franchise-focused independent studio that thrives in the mid-budget, IP-driven segment of the entertainment industry.

  • It punches above its weight by targeting profitable genre films, franchise extensions, and strategic licensing — while avoiding the financial risk of mega-budget blockbusters.


Potential Takeovers, Legal Battles, and Strategic Reviews: Key Updates on THTX, SWTX, LQDA and More

By Special Situation Investments

  • Theratechnologies (THTX) received a non-binding takeover offer from Future Pak, with a potential 62% upside including CVR.
  • Merck KGaA is nearing a $47/share acquisition of SpringWorks Therapeutics (SWTX), with no competing bidders reported.
  • Liquidia (LQDA) and UTHR are engaged in legal battles over patent infringement and Yutrepia’s approval, affecting market valuations.

Event Driven: Mahindra & Mahindra Acquired SML Isuzu, Strengthening Presence in CV

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) is acquiring a 58.96% stake in SML Isuzu through SPAs with Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP) and Isuzu Motors (7202 JP), along with open offer.
  • The acquisition aims to significantly strengthen M&M’s position in the >3.5T commercial vehicle segment, doubling its market share initially and targeting further growth.  
  • This strategic move signals M&M’s clear intent to become a full-range player in commercial vehicles, leveraging synergies in product, network, and manufacturing. 

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Medco Energi, Greenko Energy, Vedanta Resources, Reliance Industries
  • Last Friday, US Treasuries tightened by 5-8 bps across the curve. US equities continued to recover, albeit at a slow pace, with the S&P 500 up by 0.7% and Nasdaq rising 1.3%.
  • The US economy is projected to register a weak 0.4% annualised growth rate in Q1/25, according to the US government’s initial estimate, with a large trade deficit and consumer fatigue contributing to the slowdown, even before the tariff-related upheaval.

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

By Leandro Gubler

  • Argentina’s Economy Grows Above Expectations in February / Vista 1Q25: Strategic Petronas Acquisition Strengthens Credit and Growth Outlook
  • Fitch Affirms Cemex at ‘BBB-‘; Stable Outlook Reflects Resilient Credit Profile
  • Pemex Rig Suspensions Highlight Ongoing Operational and Financial Risks / MercadoLibre CEO Sees U.S.-China Trade War as Major Opportunity

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Short Interest New Highs; Chunghwa Telecom Short Spike
  • Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25
  • Indirect Beneficiaries of the Smash Hit Movie “King of Kings” In the Korean Stock Market
  • Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd: Missing Inventory Exposes the Audit Blind Spot
  • Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind
  • Is IBM the Dark Horse of AI? $6 Billion in Bookings Signal a New Era!
  • Lam Research Is Dominating Advanced Packaging & NAND Upgrades But Does This Create A Prime Buy Opportunity?
  • Reliance: Betting Big on New Energy
  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Rally Looks Overdone; Taiwan Remains Better Value


IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India is set to witness INR 4.02 trillion worth of Pre-IPO shares becoming tradeable by June 2025, lead to huge selling pressure among various IPO stocks.
  • We identified 6 Companies where lock-in is about to expire and analyzed their current status in terms of their business and industry environment.
  • Some fundamentally good companies also provide opportunities at a good price due to a fall because of selling pressure in these companies after lock-in expiry.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC ADR Short Interest New Highs; Chunghwa Telecom Short Spike

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +19.5% Premium; Short Interest in ADRs Jumps to New Highs; Open Fresh Short of Spread at 20% or Higher
  • ASE: +3.8% Premium; Wait for Higher Premium Before Opening New Short
  • CHT: -1.0% Discount; Consider Going Long the Spread; ADR Short Interest Rises to New Highs

Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25

By Ming Lu

  • Geely’s deliveries reached 46% of BYD in 1Q25, while the number was 23% in 2024.
  • The delivery growth rate accelerated since December 2024 and reached 54% YoY in March 2025.
  • We believe, even without production capacity expansion, BEV deliveries can grow significantly YoY in 2Q25 and 3Q25.

Indirect Beneficiaries of the Smash Hit Movie “King of Kings” In the Korean Stock Market

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the indirect beneficiaries of the global hit movie “King of Kings” in the Korean stock market. 
  • The King of Kings is a 3D animation movie produced by a Korean company called Mofac Studio (unlisted). This film made $45mn in N. American box office in 10 days.
  • Dexter Studios, Wysiwyg Studios, and GiantStep (listed competitors to Mofac Studios) are up on average 17% in the past one month. 

Ramkrishna Forgings Ltd: Missing Inventory Exposes the Audit Blind Spot

By Nitin Mangal

  • On April 26, 2025, Ramkrishna Forgings (RMKF IN) (RKFL) disclosed that during the annual physical verification of inventory for the financial year ending March 31, 2025, there were discrepancies observed.
  • The company has appointed independent external agencies to dig-out the findings, but the fact that management expects a 4-5% erosion of net-worth has caught the attention of many.
  • While this exposes the accounting and governance, the bigger picture is that it also exposes a big audit blind spot relating to inventory discrepancy threshold of 10%.

Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind

By Nitin Mangal

  • Ather Energy (1207922D IN) kickstarts its INR 29.8 bn worth IPO this week, comprising of fresh issue worth INR 26.3 bn and 11.1 mn OFS valued at INR 3.5 bn. 
  • Ather, a pioneer, was the first entity to launch a smart scooter back in 2018. The company currently is 4th largest EV player with a market share of 10.7%. 
  • Although it shows strong R&D profile and a positive warranty trend, Ather continues its heavy cash burn and has exorbitant wages, loss of market share, increased discounting, etc.

Is IBM the Dark Horse of AI? $6 Billion in Bookings Signal a New Era!

By Baptista Research

  • International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) delivered solid performance in its first-quarter 2025 results, exhibiting a combination of strengths and challenges as it continues to pursue its strategic focus on hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence (AI).
  • IBM reported a total revenue of $14.5 billion for the quarter, marking a 2% increase at constant currency from the previous year.
  • This growth was primarily driven by robust performance in the Software segment which rose by 9% thanks to advancements across Red Hat, Automation, Data, and Transaction Processing.

Lam Research Is Dominating Advanced Packaging & NAND Upgrades But Does This Create A Prime Buy Opportunity?

By Baptista Research

  • Lam Research reported a strong performance in the March 2025 quarter, exceeding the midpoint of guidance across key financial metrics such as revenue, gross margin, operating margin, and EPS.
  • The company achieved record foundry revenues, attributing much of this success to robust execution and strategic investments in manufacturing and operations, leading to improved gross margins post-Novellus merger.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Reliance: Betting Big on New Energy

By Rahul Jain

  • Reliance plans to invest Rs40,000–45,000 crore (30% of total capex) into its New Energy business over FY25–FY28.
  • Solar PV manufacturing (10 GW), Green Hydrogen (electrolyzers + hydrogen production), Energy Storage (30 GWh batteries), Biogas (CBG plants), and Carbon Capture initiatives.
  • New Energy could contribute 8–10% of Reliance’s total EBITDA over the next 10 years as projects mature and commercial operations ramp up.

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Rally Looks Overdone; Taiwan Remains Better Value

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Delta Thailand’s rally looks sentiment-driven, not fundamental: 1Q25 results were decent but not a major beat.
  • Valuation gap widened to unjustifiable levels: Delta Thailand trades at 52x trailing PER vs. Delta Taiwan at 25x.
  • Delta Taiwan remains the structurally stronger,cheaper exposure to the group’s long-term growth themes.

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Daily Brief Macro: UK Politics: Labour Day and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • UK Politics: Labour Day, Not Labour’s Day
  • Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks
  • De-Risking Returns, This Time Towards America
  • Vietnam Rubber Export Returns Up, But Products Suffer In Feb
  • Steno Signals #194 — The March 2020 Parallel Intensifies
  • Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April
  • Trump Versus the Fed: President Will Get His Way
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 28 April 2025
  • CX Daily: China’s Pet Boom Bites Back
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – ACES, Alfamart, and Shakey’s Pizza


UK Politics: Labour Day, Not Labour’s Day

By Alastair Newton

  • The balance of seats Labour loses to Reform UK, compared to the LibDems and Greens, could be crucial in internal party disputes.
  • The outcomes of the local elections on 1 May could significantly influence this balance.
  • A concurrent by-election also stands to have a significant impact on government policy.

Asian Equities: The Overvalued, Low Growth, Over-Leveraged Stocks

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • We use quantamental screens to identify overvalued stocks in Asia, with weak fundamentals – consistently low earnings growth, forecast return ratios less than cost of capital, and over-leveraged balance sheets.
  • We screen Asia-listed stocks above US$1bn market cap on declining EPS CAGR over next 2 years, less than 10% ROE, higher than 1x PEG and P/BV, more than 80% D/E.
  • We identify 30 stocks: 11 from HK/China, 9 from Japan, 4 from Taiwan, 3 from India, and one each from Korea, Malaysia and Singapore. Financials, property, industrials dominate the list.

De-Risking Returns, This Time Towards America

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • After much talk about de-risking from China, countries are now applying the same lens in reviewing their economic, security, and technological dependencies on the US.
  • Countries will seek to expand and deepen trading links with other partners, but it will be hard to fully compensate for the closing down of the world’s largest consumer market.
  • No economic or geopolitical law mandates the existence of a global hegemon. The economic and security order is becoming more fragmented and decentralized.

Vietnam Rubber Export Returns Up, But Products Suffer In Feb

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Rubber products exports to the US falls 4.99% MoM in Feb  
  •  Product exports to China surge by 143.22% MoM in Feb  
  •  Rubber exports value in Feb soar to US$225.71 million  

Steno Signals #194 — The March 2020 Parallel Intensifies

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Monday from a sunny Copenhagen! We have been banging the drum on the similarities between the tariffs-cycle and the Covid-cycle over the past month, and we are increasingly confident that the playbook holds true.
  • The kind of stop/go dynamics look clearly similar as a policy shock nukes the cycle, while the “solution” is to roll back the shock gradually.
  • A lockdown before a reopening essentially.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils demand could wane as expectations of improving supply and more muted end-user consumption incentivize blenders to keep low stocks.
  • High base oils margins could add to buyers’ preference to hold back amid concern about disconnect between high margins and prospect of weaker supply-demand fundamentals.
  • More muted regional demand would speed up recovery in supply as more plant maintenance draws to a close in coming weeks.

Trump Versus the Fed: President Will Get His Way

By Said Desaque

  • Financial markets were recently frightened by the spectre of President Trump replacing Fed Chairman Powell before his term expires, but the era of peak Fed credibility has elapsed.
  • President Trump’s criticism of the Fed has some validity. The nexus between the Fed and the Treasury during Biden administration became tighter, thereby helping to facilitate profligate fiscal policy conduct.
  • The Fed will not offer updated forward guidance until June, but markets are discounting three policy rate reductions in 2025. 

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 28 April 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • Bank Indonesia maintains high rates despite economic strain; Korea shows early signs of slowdown with weak investment and trade data.

  • India’s domestic economy remains strong, but early PMI data’s significance is limited.

  • U.S. trade policy assumptions collapse as tariffs rise and the dollar weakens, exposing flaws in anti-China strategies.


CX Daily: China’s Pet Boom Bites Back

By Caixin Global

  • Pets / In Depth: China’s pet boom bites back
  • China-Brazil /Trade war is a trade opportunity for Brazil, São Paulo mayor says
  • Canton Fair /In Depth: Despite slowdown in U.S. orders, global buyers flock to China’s biggest trade fair

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – ACES, Alfamart, and Shakey’s Pizza

By Angus Mackintosh


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Most Read: Toyota Industries, Laopu Gold, Shin Etsu Chemical, Sigma Healthcare, Ather Energy, SK Inc, Hanwha Ocean and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)
  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation
  • Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – OK Earnings, OK Forecast, But Ground-Breaking Buyback
  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Next Round of Passive Buying Around the Corner
  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns
  • Ather Energy IPO: Expensive and No Immediate Index Inclusion
  • Next Target After Hanwha for Regime Change Momentum Play: SK Inc’s Share Cancellation
  • Hanwha Ocean Placement – Recent Run-Up, Results Make It Tricky
  • Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued
  • KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing


Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP)
  • The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies. 
  • ¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation

By Brian Freitas

  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK) was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.
  • Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.
  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK) could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – OK Earnings, OK Forecast, But Ground-Breaking Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) reported FY earnings to beat January guidance for all four major measures, just slightly. They only guide 1 quarter out, and Q1 is up year-on-year… 
  • …in revenues, but down in OP and NP. Note: OP and NP guidance is nearly identical to what they guided for Q1 last year on ¥585bn revenues (vs ¥610bn now)
  • The BIG news here is a Very Large Buyback. The company has long has huge piles of cash. This buyback (~90% of annual profit) starts to make use of it.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Next Round of Passive Buying Around the Corner

By Brian Freitas

  • There was big passive buying in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) in March from S&P/ASX trackers following the completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse Group.
  • Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) should be added to a global index in May and those passive trackers will have a lot of stock to buy.
  • While there will be positioning in the stock, it appears lighter than the estimated passive buying. Shorts are being covered and that could provide a boost.

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): A Rumoured Privatisation with Several Unknowns

By Arun George

  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP) shares were set to hit the daily upper limit of JPY16,225 due to press reports of a privatisation bid valuing it at JPY6 trillion. 
  • Toyota Industries confirmed receiving a going-private proposal from a special purpose company, while Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said it is considering all possibilities, including a partial investment. 
  • There are still several unknowns, including the price, the identity of the offeror, potential irrevocable commitments, the financing structure, and the timeline. 

Ather Energy IPO: Expensive and No Immediate Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

  • Ather Energy is looking to raise INR 30bn (US$349m) in its IPO, valuing the company at INR 120bn (US$1.4bn). The company appears to be expensive compared to peers.
  • Ather Energy could be added to one global smallcap index in August/November and to another in December/March. Small Cap classification for AMFI and no major local index inclusion.
  • The continued selloff in Ola Electric will give investors pause, especially given Ather Energy‘s stagnant market share and continued losses. There is supply in Ola Electric with PE/VC investors selling. 

Next Target After Hanwha for Regime Change Momentum Play: SK Inc’s Share Cancellation

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local traders are betting SK Inc will preemptively announce a treasury share cancellation before the June election, positioning it as the center of the regime change momentum play.
  • From a trading perspective, SK Inc could rally as a “buyback stock” and offer NAV gap trading opportunities.
  • Another option could be an event-driven hedge strategy: go long on SK and short index futures post-election. If Lee Jae-myung wins, SK could outperform, but the broader market may drop.

Hanwha Ocean Placement – Recent Run-Up, Results Make It Tricky

By Sumeet Singh

  • Korea Development Bank (KDB) plans to raise around US$740m via selling around 5%+ stake in Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS).
  • HO’s shares have nearly tripled since the start of the year, and the company reported its results today.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

By Brian Freitas

  • Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV. 
  • Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.
  • There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.

KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing

By Sanghyun Park

  • KDB sells 4.3% of total shares, offloading about one fifth of its holdings. The price range was 81,265–81,710 won, at an 8.51–9.00% discount, totaling 1.056–1.062 trillion won.
  • With more float and passive buying (KOSPI 200) potential, plus shipbuilding momentum, the stock’s pullback likely won’t exceed today’s discount — it might be worth taking a swing.
  • There’s buzz KDB might sell its HMM stake through block trades, like Hanwha Ocean. However, with HMM’s cash reserves, a tender offer seems more likely to drive stock action instead.

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Daily Brief Australia: Ainsworth Game Technology and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer


Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer

By Arun George

  • Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) entered into a scheme implementation deed with Novomatic, its controlling shareholder, at A$1.00 per share, a 35.1% premium to the unaffected price.
  • The final offer is unattractive. Kanen Wealth Management opposes the offer. The lack of irrevocables from Spheria and Allan Gray adds to the vote risk.   
  • Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance condition, thereby limiting the downside risk.

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Daily Brief Thailand: Delta Electronics Thailand and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Rally Looks Overdone; Taiwan Remains Better Value


Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Monitor: Delta Thai Rally Looks Overdone; Taiwan Remains Better Value

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Delta Thailand’s rally looks sentiment-driven, not fundamental: 1Q25 results were decent but not a major beat.
  • Valuation gap widened to unjustifiable levels: Delta Thailand trades at 52x trailing PER vs. Delta Taiwan at 25x.
  • Delta Taiwan remains the structurally stronger,cheaper exposure to the group’s long-term growth themes.

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Daily Brief South Korea: SK Inc, Hanwha Ocean , WYSIWYG Studios, LG CNS and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Next Target After Hanwha for Regime Change Momentum Play: SK Inc’s Share Cancellation
  • Hanwha Ocean Placement – Recent Run-Up, Results Make It Tricky
  • Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued
  • KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing
  • Indirect Beneficiaries of the Smash Hit Movie “King of Kings” In the Korean Stock Market
  • LG CNS: Better Than Expected Results in 1Q 2025 Led by Cloud & AI Unit


Next Target After Hanwha for Regime Change Momentum Play: SK Inc’s Share Cancellation

By Sanghyun Park

  • Local traders are betting SK Inc will preemptively announce a treasury share cancellation before the June election, positioning it as the center of the regime change momentum play.
  • From a trading perspective, SK Inc could rally as a “buyback stock” and offer NAV gap trading opportunities.
  • Another option could be an event-driven hedge strategy: go long on SK and short index futures post-election. If Lee Jae-myung wins, SK could outperform, but the broader market may drop.

Hanwha Ocean Placement – Recent Run-Up, Results Make It Tricky

By Sumeet Singh

  • Korea Development Bank (KDB) plans to raise around US$740m via selling around 5%+ stake in Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS).
  • HO’s shares have nearly tripled since the start of the year, and the company reported its results today.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

By Brian Freitas

  • Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV. 
  • Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.
  • There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.

KDB’s Hanwha Ocean Block Deal: Worth Taking a Swing

By Sanghyun Park

  • KDB sells 4.3% of total shares, offloading about one fifth of its holdings. The price range was 81,265–81,710 won, at an 8.51–9.00% discount, totaling 1.056–1.062 trillion won.
  • With more float and passive buying (KOSPI 200) potential, plus shipbuilding momentum, the stock’s pullback likely won’t exceed today’s discount — it might be worth taking a swing.
  • There’s buzz KDB might sell its HMM stake through block trades, like Hanwha Ocean. However, with HMM’s cash reserves, a tender offer seems more likely to drive stock action instead.

Indirect Beneficiaries of the Smash Hit Movie “King of Kings” In the Korean Stock Market

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the indirect beneficiaries of the global hit movie “King of Kings” in the Korean stock market. 
  • The King of Kings is a 3D animation movie produced by a Korean company called Mofac Studio (unlisted). This film made $45mn in N. American box office in 10 days.
  • Dexter Studios, Wysiwyg Studios, and GiantStep (listed competitors to Mofac Studios) are up on average 17% in the past one month. 

LG CNS: Better Than Expected Results in 1Q 2025 Led by Cloud & AI Unit

By Douglas Kim

  • LG CNS reported better than expected results in 1Q 2025 with sales of 1.2 trillion won (up 13.2% YoY) and operating profit of 78.9 billion won (up 144.3% YoY).
  • The company’s sales, operating profit, and net profit were 5.5%, 16.5%, and 36.4% better than the consensus estimates, respectively in 1Q 2025. 
  • The company’s Cloud & AI unit had sales of 717.3 billion won (up 30.1% YoY) in 1Q 2025.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Amara Holdings, Sinarmas Land, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Suntec REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family Reloads At S$0.895/Share
  • Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair
  • Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Conditional VGO at S$0.895
  • Vietnam Rubber Export Returns Up, But Products Suffer In Feb
  • REIT Watch – S-REITs rebound from early April sell-off


Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family Reloads At S$0.895/Share

By David Blennerhassett

  • Amara Holdings (AMA SP), a property/hotel play, has announced a best-and-final conditional S$0.895/share cash Offer, a 27% to undisturbed and a lifetime high, from the controlling Teo family.
  • If Amara sounds familiar, in November 2023, the family launched  a best-and-final unconditional cash Offer at S$0.60/share as discussed in Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family’s Lifetime High Offer.
  • This new Offer has a 90% acceptance condition. Irrevocables tally 90.58%. Done and done. 

Sinarmas Land: Bumping Fades Despite IFA Opining Not Fair

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on 27th March, the family trust of the Widjaja Family made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 29.7% in Sinarmas Land (SML SP) not held.
  • Pricing was uninspiring: the S$0.31 cash Offer (not final) for the (mainly) Indo property play was a 12.9% premium to undisturbed; and a 73.9% discount to the 1H24 S$1.19/share NAV.
  • The IFA agreed and said “Not Fair but Reasonable”, with an estimated fair value range of S$0.350 to S$0.361/share. This (still) needs a bump. But that is looking less likely.

Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Conditional VGO at S$0.895

By Arun George

  • Amara Holdings (AMA SP) has disclosed a voluntary conditional offer from a three-member consortium at S$0.895 per share, a 27.0% premium to the last close price. 
  • Irrevocables, including from the 2023 VGO offeror, represent 90.58% of the outstanding shares, ensuring that the 90% minimum acceptance condition will be satisfied and the offer will be declared unconditional. 
  • The offer price is final. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high, and is 49.2% above the 2023 VGO price. 

Vietnam Rubber Export Returns Up, But Products Suffer In Feb

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • Rubber products exports to the US falls 4.99% MoM in Feb  
  •  Product exports to China surge by 143.22% MoM in Feb  
  •  Rubber exports value in Feb soar to US$225.71 million  

REIT Watch – S-REITs rebound from early April sell-off

By Geoff Howie

  • From April 14 to 24, top 10 iEdge S-REIT index performers received S$23.3 million in net institutional inflows.
  • Institutional investors net sold S$36.6 million in S-REITs from April 14 to 24, totaling S$465.1 million in outflows year-to-date.
  • Retail investors net sold S$64.4 million in S-REITs from April 14 to 24, with year-to-date net inflows of S$261.9 million.

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