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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Singapore: Penguin International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Penguin International (PBS SP): Chairman & Dymon Return To the Well

Penguin International (PBS SP): Chairman & Dymon Return To the Well

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 5th): Aia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 5th): Aia, China Mengniu Dairy, ESR
  • Upside Versus Downside Stocks

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (May 5th): Aia, China Mengniu Dairy, ESR

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on May 5th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), China Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK), Esr (1821 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Tencent (700 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).

Upside Versus Downside Stocks

By Nicolas Rabener

  • There is more upside in downside and more downside in upside stocks than expected.
  • Stocks can be ranked by their upside and downside betas to the S&P 500
  • Excess returns from upside stocks were negative, zero for downside stocks

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Daily Brief ESG: Rather and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Rather, Listing Criteria for Prime Market Should Be Modified to the Original Concept of the Market

Rather, Listing Criteria for Prime Market Should Be Modified to the Original Concept of the Market

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While the listing criteria aren’t consistent with the initial concept of the prime market, “investment targets for global investors,” “transitional” companies that don’t meet those listing criteria are allowed listing.
  • Delisting through TOB or MBO will lead to the metabolism of listed companies and maintain the quality of the TSE as an “investment target for global investors” market.
  • It is not about bringing “transitional” companies into compliance with the listing criteria of the prime market, but about modifying the listing criteria to the original concept of the market.

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Daily Brief Credit: Weekly Wrap – 05 May 2023 and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 05 May 2023

Weekly Wrap – 05 May 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Vedanta Resources
  2. Azure Power Global Ltd
  3. Pakuwon Jati
  4. Japfa Comfeed Indonesia
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Go Airlines (India) Limited- What’s at Stake? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Go Airlines (India) Limited- What’s at Stake?
  • AMD: The Bear Market Rally Is Over
  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Shaking off the COVID Factor
  • SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Xcopri US Sales Doubled in 2022; More Stream Still Left
  • Nihon M&A: Puts Aside Mid-Term Growth Plan by Two Years
  • MediaTek Q1’23 Earnings NT$95.7 Billion, -11.6% QoQ , -33% YoY. Q2’23 Flat QoQ
  • Cleveland-Cliffs Inc: What Is Its True Moat Source? – Key Drivers
  • [RemeGen (9995 HK) Target Price Change]: Chinese Biotech Must Confine to the Biotech Role
  • TM: More High-Grade Drill Results; Mining Ahead of Schedule
  • Epwin Group – Solid results highlight management action

Go Airlines (India) Limited- What’s at Stake?

By Nitin Mangal

  • Go Air Limited (GO IN)‘s resistance to put its operational woes aside, has come to an end as the company has filed for insolvency.
  • In our previous IPO insight, Go Air IPO- In Search Of Smooth Landing we had highlighted several issues that were haunting the company, including the Pratt and Whitney trouble.
  • Now that the company has filed for insolvency, the search of smooth landing extends to the shareholders and the lenders.

AMD: The Bear Market Rally Is Over

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • The sharp rebound of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) over the recent months came to a sudden halt after market participants were once again surprised by the deteriorating outlook for the company.
  • Prompted by the bear market rally in

Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Shaking off the COVID Factor

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Prodia booked a softer set of numbers in 1Q2023 but reflected a higher COVID base plus 1Q2023 was impacted by the fasting month but the testing mix was positive.
  • The company will significantly increase capex this year with more outlet expansion and more investment into its digital business, which is becoming an increasingly important growth driver. 
  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) stands out as the unique diagnostic leader in Indonesia,  which trades at a significant discount to both local healthcare players and Indian diagnostic peers.

SK Biopharmaceuticals (326030 KS): Xcopri US Sales Doubled in 2022; More Stream Still Left

By Tina Banerjee

  • For 2022, SK Biopharmaceuticals Co Ltd (326030 KS) recorded Xcopri U.S. revenue of KRW169B, up 116% YoY. This year, the company expects to secure Xcopri sales of ~KRW300B in U.S.
  • Thus far, Xcopri has been launched in 15 countries in Europe. The company expects to launched Xcopri in eight more countries in Europe this year.
  • By 2025, SKBP plans to submit sNDA for cenobamate in primary generalized tonic-clonic (PGTC) seizures and pediatric patients, and carisbamate for orphan pediatric epilepsy.

Nihon M&A: Puts Aside Mid-Term Growth Plan by Two Years

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Nihon M&A reported 4QFY03/2023 results last week. Revenue increased 86.7% YoY to ¥11.4bn (vs consensus ¥10.0bn) while OP for the quarter more than quadrupled to ¥4.2bn (vs consensus ¥4.9bn).
  • Full-Year FY03/2023 revenue of ¥41.3bn and OP of ¥15.3bn were slightly below guidance of ¥42bn and ¥18bn respectively and the company has put aside its medium-term growth plan by 2years.
  • We continue to prefer Baycurrent over Nihon M&A Center (2127 JP) in the Japanese consulting/M&A space as Baycurrent continues to make strong progress.

MediaTek Q1’23 Earnings NT$95.7 Billion, -11.6% QoQ , -33% YoY. Q2’23 Flat QoQ

By William Keating

  • Q1’23 revenues of NT$95.7 billion, down 11.6% sequentially and 33% year-over-year.
  • Q2’23 revenues sequentially flat at the midpoint. Longer replacement cycles and growing refurbishment market will see 2023 unit shipments decline a further ~10% YoY.
  • Strength in Smart Edge products (TV, Tablet, Telco, Automotive) continues to offset weakness in smartphones

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc: What Is Its True Moat Source? – Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • It was a successful Q4 for Cleveland-Cliffs as the company managed an all-around beat with lower-than-expected losses.
  • Cleveland-Cliffs supplies over 7 million tons of steel to the automotive industry, including 5 million tons of direct sales and over 2 million tons of indirect sales.
  • With typical volumes of 5 million tons per year, the company expects its full-year 2023 carbon flat-rolled steel selling price to increase to $1,415 per net ton, a $115 per net ton increase year over year.

[RemeGen (9995 HK) Target Price Change]: Chinese Biotech Must Confine to the Biotech Role

By Shawn Yang

  • RemeGen’s C1Q23 top line came in as 31% of our C1H23 estimate while IFRS operating loss came in as 55%. 
  • C1Q23 gross margin exceeded our C1H23 estimate by 12ppt, mainly due to restraining in shipment
  • We cut our product sales estimates and raise WACC by 1ppt to reflect concentrated risk, leading to TP reduction from US$64 to US$46.

TM: More High-Grade Drill Results; Mining Ahead of Schedule

By Atrium Research

  • This morning, Trigon Metals Inc. (TM:TSXV), announced additional high-grade drill results from its Kombat Mine in Namibia.
  • The Company reported drill results from 12 holes totalling 996m at the Kavango West area, 150m west of the Main Kavango Pit (Figure 1).
  • These results build upon the already reported high-grade copper drill results from the Main Kavango Pit and East 400 area (150m east of the Kavango Pit), highlighting the strong mineralization across the Kombat trend.

Epwin Group – Solid results highlight management action

By Edison Investment Research

Epwin’s FY22 results highlight both the challenging trading environment but also management’s ability to successfully handle inflationary pressures. Well-established long-term growth trends imply that Epwin is well placed to leverage off increasing demand for its energy efficient and low-maintenance building products. The acquisition of Poly-Pure and Mayfield underscore the company’s ambition and ability to self-finance accretive expansion. We anticipate further deals in the foreseeable future. Epwin trades on a P/E of 8.3x for FY23e versus a long-term average of 10.9x, with upside as and when margins recover further.


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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): China TMT Update (May.6) – Douyin/PDD/ByteDance/BEKE/NIO: Douyin Launches “Super Cheap Little Shop” and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • China TMT Update (May.6) – Douyin/PDD/ByteDance/BEKE/NIO: Douyin Launches “Super Cheap Little Shop”
  • Mat-Chem Notes : For the Week Ended April 28, 2023

China TMT Update (May.6) – Douyin/PDD/ByteDance/BEKE/NIO: Douyin Launches “Super Cheap Little Shop”

By Shawn Yang

  • PDD: Douyin launches “Super Cheap Little Shop” to provide low cost products (-)
  • ByteDance/BEKE: ByteDance give up offline housing brokerage business, while online business remains(+)
  • NIO: NIO to officially launch all-new ES6 on May 24 (+)

Mat-Chem Notes : For the Week Ended April 28, 2023

By Water Tower Research

  • WTR-CMI last week. In what was a mixed week for the market, with S&P 500 appreciating 0.9% and the Russell 2000 slipping 1.3%, our WTR-CMI index of 30 specialty chemicals and materials stocks outperformed both broader indexes by appreciating 1.1%, led by a recovery in prices of lithium stocks, which took a tumble the previous week after the announcement of the Chilean government’s intention to increase its financial participation in large lithium projects in the country.
  • Better weather drives stronger planting progress. Following last year’s planting delays caused by unseasonal weather, the 2023 planting season in the US is picking up the pace after a slower start, with both corn and soybean planting well ahead of last year and the five-year average, boding well for North American crop protection and the fertilizer market, at least when it comes to demand.
  • Chinese auto sales look to rise. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the country should see a 50% surge in Y/Y new passenger vehicle sales in April, following a strong March, compared with the COVID lockdown period a year ago.

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Daily Brief Macro: TPW Advisory May Monthly: Forward and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • TPW Advisory May Monthly: Forward

TPW Advisory May Monthly: Forward

By TPW Advisory

  • It’s a strange time; the calendar says May but the NYC weather feels like March; time is passing but we don’t seem to be making much headway.
  • The Fed likely feels the same – the most aggressive rate hike cycle in 50 years and inflation remains above target.
  • Recession calls, as they have for the past year, continue to dominate the economic outlooks.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Penguin International (PBS SP): Chairman & Dymon Return To the Well and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Penguin International (PBS SP): Chairman & Dymon Return To the Well
  • Insiders Sell at Ecopro BM

Penguin International (PBS SP): Chairman & Dymon Return To the Well

By David Blennerhassett


Insiders Sell at Ecopro BM

By Douglas Kim

  • It was recently reported that Choi Mun-Ho (CEO of Ecopro BM) sold 2,000 shares of Ecopro BM Co Ltd (247540 KS) at 254,000 won per share.
  • It was also recently announced that Eroom T&C, the family company of Lee Dong-Chae, the chairman of Ecopro Group, also sold shares of Ecopro BM.
  • Recent selling of Ecopro BM shares by CEO Choi Mun-Ho and Ecopro affiliate Eroom T&C are negative signs on the Ecopro BM. Lofty valuations are also negative on Ecopro BM. 

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Most Read: HDFC Limited, Douzone Bizon, Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk, Toshiba Corp, Jindal Steel & Power, Thai Life Insurance, Ventia, Ecopro Co Ltd, Japan Tobacco, Penguin International and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • HDFC/​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Index Implications as We Near Completion
  • KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential & Close Changes in September
  • LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Changes
  • Toshiba (6502) – Thinking About the Arb
  • NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Double/Triple Whammy for Some Stocks
  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes – One High Probability; One Has Possibilities
  • Ventia (VNT AU) – Placement Could Lead to ASX200 Inclusion in June
  • Ecopro – Is This the Start of the End?
  • Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: Potential 62% Upside
  • Penguin International (PBS SP): Chairman & Dymon Return To the Well

HDFC/​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Index Implications as We Near Completion

By Brian Freitas

  • Foreign shareholding has dropped in HDFC Limited and increased in HDFC Bank – the net effect is an increase in foreign room to just north of 18%.
  • The merger is expected to complete in Q2/Q3 when there will be buying from MSCI trackers. There will be adhoc inclusions to the NIFTY, Nifty Next 50 and SENSEX indices.
  • HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) trades 1.39% below the merger ratio with HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) and also at a lower price to book.

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance Preview: Potential & Close Changes in September

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the September rebalance ends on 31 July, the changes will be announced towards end August and implemented at the close of trading on 7 September.
  • There are potential changes to some of the indices and then there are close changes that will result in big flows if they eventuate.
  • The March rebalance saw some funky moves on the stocks that had big flows and we could see more of that at the September rebalance.


Toshiba (6502) – Thinking About the Arb

By Travis Lundy

  • Toshiba is trading at a 12-13% annualised return on the arb when using the expected Tender Offer Start Date proposed in the Takeover Announcement on 23 March 2023.
  • On Day 1-2 post-announcement, Toshiba traded at an 11-13% annualised spread. Since the announcement, a 12-name Peer Basket is up 11+% meaning Toshiba back end risk has shrunk.
  • Forward consensus EPS ratios have fallen, in part due to the shift forward one fiscal year by comps. We’ll see where those lie in a week when earnings come.

NIFTY100 Index Rebalance Preview: Double/Triple Whammy for Some Stocks

By Brian Freitas

  • Halfway through the review period, we see 5 potential changes for the Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)/ Nifty 100 Index (NSE100 INDEX) at the September rebalance.
  • All the potential adds are expected to migrate from MidCap to LargeCap at the AMFI June reclassification, while we expect two of the potential deletes to move the other way.
  • Of the potential deletes, one is a high probability deletion from the MSCI India Index at the May QCIR while there is another that is a lower probability deletion.

SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Two Changes – One High Probability; One Has Possibilities

By Brian Freitas


Ventia (VNT AU) – Placement Could Lead to ASX200 Inclusion in June

By Brian Freitas


Ecopro – Is This the Start of the End?

By Ken S. Kim

  • A SELL note from a broker on Ecopro BM Co Ltd (247540 KS) was a key reason for the 7% and 8+% fall for Ecopro Co Ltd (086520 KS) .  
  • Is this finally start of the end of the rally for the poster boy for Korean EV 
  • When will earnings matter and what are the catalysts that could start the downfall?

Japan Tobacco High Conviction Update: Potential 62% Upside

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Japan Tobacco’s 1Q23 performance exceeded consensus expectations, with revenue and OP surpassing by 5.3% and 12.3%, respectively.
  • Consensus expected no volume growth for Japan Tobacco in declining combustible tobacco market; targeted mid-single digit constant currency revenue growth via pricing.
  • Higher cigarette prices are expected to contribute to Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)‘s OP growth, which we anticipate will exceed its historical peak levels in the next few years.

Penguin International (PBS SP): Chairman & Dymon Return To the Well

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Advanced Micro Devices, Mediatek Inc, Cliq Digital AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • AMD: The Bear Market Rally Is Over
  • MediaTek Q1’23 Earnings NT$95.7 Billion, -11.6% QoQ , -33% YoY. Q2’23 Flat QoQ
  • CLIQ Digital – Bundled content driving sales and profit growth

AMD: The Bear Market Rally Is Over

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • The sharp rebound of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) over the recent months came to a sudden halt after market participants were once again surprised by the deteriorating outlook for the company.
  • Prompted by the bear market rally in

MediaTek Q1’23 Earnings NT$95.7 Billion, -11.6% QoQ , -33% YoY. Q2’23 Flat QoQ

By William Keating

  • Q1’23 revenues of NT$95.7 billion, down 11.6% sequentially and 33% year-over-year.
  • Q2’23 revenues sequentially flat at the midpoint. Longer replacement cycles and growing refurbishment market will see 2023 unit shipments decline a further ~10% YoY.
  • Strength in Smart Edge products (TV, Tablet, Telco, Automotive) continues to offset weakness in smartphones

CLIQ Digital – Bundled content driving sales and profit growth

By Edison Investment Research

CLIQ Digital had a very strong start to FY23, with a 58% y-o-y revenue uplift in Q123 (to €83m) and an EBITDA margin of 15.4% (Q122: 15.8%). Raised levels of marketing spend continue to drive momentum, generating growth in both the lifetime value of the customer base (LTVCB) and in the number of paid members. CLIQ is inherently highly cash generative and net cash was €10.9m at the quarter-end. Management has reiterated both FY23 and mid-term 2025 sales guidance, and our forecasts are unchanged, underpinned by the strong Q123 performance. CLIQ’s valuation remains at a significant discount to peers on EV/sales and EV/EBITDA multiples, with substantial potential upside to the current share price on current estimates, in our view.


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