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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Indonesia: Lippo Karawaci and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Lippo Karawaci – Earnings Flash – 9M FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

Lippo Karawaci – Earnings Flash – 9M FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

In our view, Lippo Karawaci’s (LPKR) 9M/22 results were mixed. The Real Estate Development segment was weak due to the challenging operating environment, with rising mortgage rates. The Healthcare and Lifestyle segments performed well, albeit this was not enough to fully offset the softness from Real Estate Development. Cash flows remained dismal. Leverage deteriorated and was elevated. Liquidity appears to be adequate, but is rapidly shrinking

LPKR’s near-term direction appears to be uncertain. While management seems confident that a rebound will occur in Q4/22 due to additional launches, the real estate sector in general is suffering from rising interest rates. Thus, it is unclear if take-up rates will be positive. Lifestyle is recovering from a very low base, due to the pandemic. Although Healthcare is the best performing segment, it was affected by a high base effect (due to abnormally high pandemic-related business in 2021).

We revise our Credit Bias to “Negative” from “Stable” due to the challenging macroeconomic conditions (with rising inflation and mortgage rates), which will continue to affect Real Estate Development.


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Daily Brief Singapore: American Rebel Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • American Rebel Holdings Inc.: Interesting Set Of Updates With Respect To The Champion Acquisition & Diversification

American Rebel Holdings Inc.: Interesting Set Of Updates With Respect To The Champion Acquisition & Diversification

By Baptista Research

  • American Rebel is a manufacturer a high-tech safes and vaults provider for the modern American consumer.
  • The American Rebel brand has been known for its distinctly American flavor and a strong level of patriotism associated with its practices.
  • Over the past months, the management has been extremely active in terms of executing its inorganic growth strategy and also diversifying its offerings.

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Daily Brief United States: Meta Platforms (Facebook), Moderna Inc, Texas Pacific Land Trust, Laser Photonics, American Rebel Holdings, Howard Hughes Corp, Hawkins Inc, Ecovyst and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • META: Connecting People
  • Moderna (MRNA US): Q3 Result Misses Expectations; Guidance Slashed As COVID Vax Shipment Deferred
  • TPL: Rising Production, Raising PT
  • Laser Photonics Corporation: An Emerging Star In The Laser Cleaning Industry
  • American Rebel Holdings Inc.: Interesting Set Of Updates With Respect To The Champion Acquisition & Diversification
  • HHC: Q3 Results Affirm MPC Strengths
  • HWKN: Moving to Sidelines on Rise of Headwinds
  • ECVT: Regenerating Free Cash Flow

META: Connecting People

By Value Investing

  • A few weeks ago, Altimeter Capital CEO Brad Gerstner and longtime shareholder of Meta wrote an open letter to you and the rest of the team at Meta – humbly requesting that you guys pay more attention to the company’s deteriorating share price, and the gradually hostile investor sentiment towards your company.
  • Basically he was telling you to shape up or ship out – with the main vex of his letter being your company’s large cash burn in their Reality Labs segment (i.e. Metaverse).
  • As a complete nobody with a net worth of less than $1B, I thought that I should weigh in as well.

Moderna (MRNA US): Q3 Result Misses Expectations; Guidance Slashed As COVID Vax Shipment Deferred

By Tina Banerjee

  • Moderna Inc (MRNA US) reported Q3 revenue of $3.36 billion, below expectation, representing y/y decline of 35% and q/q decrease of 31%, due to lower sales volume of COVID-19 vaccine.
  • Management now expects 2022 vaccine revenue of $18–19 billion, down earlier expectation of $21 billion, following delay of certain deliveries into 2023 due to short-term supply constraints.  
  • With the continued higher medical burden of COVID relative to flu, Moderna expects the endemic COVID vaccine market could be as large or larger than flu market volumes over time.

TPL: Rising Production, Raising PT

By Hamed Khorsand

  • TPL reported better than expected third quarter results on the heels of production rebounding to a new high compared to the last four quarters
  • The availability of fracking sand has been the biggest impediment for energy producers in the Permian Basin. TPL contracting for two mobile sand miners should stabilize production over multiple quarters
  • We are raising our price target to $2,750 to better reflect the earnings power TPL’s business has looking ahead to 2023 and 2024 with higher production levels

Laser Photonics Corporation: An Emerging Star In The Laser Cleaning Industry

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first research note on Laser Photonics and we look to provide an overview of the company operations before diving deeper into its valuation with a full-fledged valuation report which will be released soon.
  • The automotive, building and metalworking industries’ strong need for these technologies and the growing interest in robotic cleaning technologies all support the market’s growth.
  • Laser Photonics is one of the very few American players in the laser blasting space and offers a cutting-edge solution to the significant rust issue that plagues various industries.

American Rebel Holdings Inc.: Interesting Set Of Updates With Respect To The Champion Acquisition & Diversification

By Baptista Research

  • American Rebel is a manufacturer a high-tech safes and vaults provider for the modern American consumer.
  • The American Rebel brand has been known for its distinctly American flavor and a strong level of patriotism associated with its practices.
  • Over the past months, the management has been extremely active in terms of executing its inorganic growth strategy and also diversifying its offerings.

HHC: Q3 Results Affirm MPC Strengths

By Hamed Khorsand

  • HHC reported third quarter 2022 results validating the real Sim City label we gave the Company upon initiation in 2014. 
  • HHC reported second quarter revenue of $639.5 million primarily because of condo deliveries. HHC reported condo sales of $418 million as it records condo sales upon delivery of units
  • HHC’s operating assets showed resiliency with a new multi-family property coming online in the third quarter resulting in higher NOI

HWKN: Moving to Sidelines on Rise of Headwinds

By Hamed Khorsand

  • HWKN reported better than expected fiscal second quarter (September) results with the caveat it would experience higher costs due to a supplier being offline in the December quarter
  • Downgrading from Buy to Neutral as this is the perfect time to move to the sidelines as some of the tailwinds of the last two years could become headwinds. 
  • The weakness in industrial could become multi-quarter event with demand pressure due to higher prices and increased imports

ECVT: Regenerating Free Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ECVT is benefiting from the continued need for sulfuric acid in multiple industries and catalysts for specialty chemicals
  • Gasoline demand is now above 2019 levels with greater need for premium gasoline leading to more alkylate production
  • The catalyst business should realize benefits from refineries taking maintenance shutdowns in the first quarter of 2023 due to the current high utilization rates

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Daily Brief Thailand: Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB): Revised Capacity Expansion Plan to Arrest Downfall in ASP

Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB): Revised Capacity Expansion Plan to Arrest Downfall in ASP

By Tina Banerjee

  • As continued strong market competition and excess capacities from major players have capped upward trajectory for ASP, key global glove manufacturers have revised their capex plans lower.
  • To reflect the current industry climate, Sri Trang expects to reach an annual production capacity of 56.6 billion pieces in 2024 from 81.9 billion pieces earlier.
  • The company aims to launch surgical gloves, which command a high margin, in the domestic market in Q4 2022.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Millie’s Library, KT Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Millie’s Library IPO Preview
  • KOSPI 200 Index Review: Names Subject to Float Rate Adjustment

Millie’s Library IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Millie’s Library is getting ready to complete its IPO on the KOSDAQ exchange in November. The IPO price range is from 21,500 won to 25,000 won per share.
  • Millie’s Library is the largest platform for e-books subscription in Korea. The major shareholder of Millie’s Library is Genie Music Corp (an affiliate of KT Group) with a 38.63% stake. 
  • The company started to generate positive operating margin in 1H 2022 when it had sales of 21.1 billion won (up 66.1% YoY) and operating margin of 5%.

KOSPI 200 Index Review: Names Subject to Float Rate Adjustment

By Sanghyun Park

  • We have seven constituents of KOSPI 200, which are subject to a float rate adjustment due to major shareholder stake sales and lockup release in the upcoming rebalancing in December
  • In terms of passive impact x ADTV, LG Energy Solution, KT Corp, and Shinhan Financial are expected to receive the most attention from flow traders.
  • The preemptive setups of flow traders will likely be more inclined toward these float rate changes since this December rebalance will have the lowest number of constituent changes ever.

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Daily Brief India: Campus Activewear, UPL Ltd, Country Garden Holdings Co, Indian Energy Exchange Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Campus Activewear Lock-Up – Shares Have Nearly Doubled. Pre-IPO Investors Might Book Gains
  • UPL Ltd, Peaking Debt, Reasonable Valuations
  • Weekly Wrap – 04 Nov 2022
  • Indian Energy Exchange: Weak Base, Low Sentiment, Improving Valns

Campus Activewear Lock-Up – Shares Have Nearly Doubled. Pre-IPO Investors Might Book Gains

By Clarence Chu

  • Campus Activewear (CAMPUS IN) was listed on 9th May, 2022, with its six-month lockup expiring today, 4th November 2022. 
  • Campus Activewear is a lifestyle-oriented sports and athleisure footwear firm based in India. Operating under the “CAMPUS” brand, it offers a diverse portfolio of styles, color palettes, and price points.
  • Coming up for six-month lockup expiry are the pre-IPO investors and the Promoters, both of which had sold during the IPO.

UPL Ltd, Peaking Debt, Reasonable Valuations

By Gauri Anand

  • Crop and Ag Chem markets to consolidate after ~50% jump in CY19-22E
  • Crop Chem key beneficiary of energy transition > more crops for fuel > more crop chem use
  • UPL likely near peak debt, to consolidate position, reasonable valuations

Weekly Wrap – 04 Nov 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Melco Resorts & Entertainment
  2. Lenovo
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Lifestyle International Holdings
  5. Geely Auto

and more…


Indian Energy Exchange: Weak Base, Low Sentiment, Improving Valns

By Gauri Anand

  • Q2FY23 Results weak on high base, H2FY23 to report single digit growth
  • FII selling, led to stock’s underperformance in H1FY23, stock oversold
  • Weak base to support growth forward, low sentiment, steep selling, turning valuation attractive, besides long term opportunity is improving

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Daily Brief China: China MeiDong Auto, Country Garden Holdings Co, Pylon Technologies Co Ltd, Gcl New Energy Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Meidong: Now at 11.5 HKD, a Great Entry Price
  • Weekly Wrap – 04 Nov 2022
  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (3 November 2022)
  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (3 November 2022)

Meidong: Now at 11.5 HKD, a Great Entry Price

By Sameer Taneja

  • Since our note in April China Meidong: Back the Porsche at 20 HKD, the company is down greater than 50% despite improving fundamentals due to bearish sentiment on China.
  • The stock trades at 11.3x/6.4x FY22/23e PE. Assuming an 80% payout ratio, the stock has a 7.1%/12.5% dividend yield for FY22/23e. We believe there is an upside to the payout.
  • Checks with the company suggest Porsche sales are robust in the high double digits, and the company has overall accelerating revenue trends since Q1 2022. 

Weekly Wrap – 04 Nov 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Melco Resorts & Entertainment
  2. Lenovo
  3. China Jinmao Holdings
  4. Lifestyle International Holdings
  5. Geely Auto

and more…


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (3 November 2022)

By David Blennerhassett


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (3 November 2022)

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Japan: Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Kirin Holdings, DISCO Corp, Softbank Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • KLine (Kawasaki Kisen 9107) Announced Q2 Earnings and Possibly Game-Able Buyback (And Index Impact)
  • Kirin: Another Beat Could Turn Consensus from Pessimism into Optimism
  • Disco (6146 JP): Not Immune to a Downturn
  • Softbank Corp (Buy) – Q2 22 Results Reaction: PayPay Boost to Guidance and In-Line Results

KLine (Kawasaki Kisen 9107) Announced Q2 Earnings and Possibly Game-Able Buyback (And Index Impact)

By Travis Lundy

  • Strong but slightly disappointing Q2 earnings from Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP), and full-year forecasts are higher, but not as high as consensus. 
  • The company has announced a buyback, to be executed on ToSTNeT-3. Effissimo and Mizuho Bank will participate. Other crossholders could too. 
  • Strategy depends on whether you think they will. If they do not, post-buyback float drops sharply.

Kirin: Another Beat Could Turn Consensus from Pessimism into Optimism

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Consensus has dismissed Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s revised revenue and OP guidance by maintaining consensus 2022 revenue and OP estimates at ¥1,970bn and ¥149.8bn respectively.
  • With the yen depreciating by an additional 5-15%, domestic business outperforming expectations and raw material prices falling, we expect another raise to Kirin’s annual guidance in 3Q22.
  • We think a second upgrade to 2022 guidance can turn consensus from pessimism to optimism.

Disco (6146 JP): Not Immune to a Downturn

By Scott Foster

  • The share price is at the top of its trading range, but management sees YoY sales and profit growth dropping to single digits this quarter.
  • On a QoQ basis, guidance is for double-digit declines, but that is partly seasonal.
  • The shares have been in a trading range for almost two years. As interest rates rise, economies slow and the semiconductor down-cycle continues, watch out.

Softbank Corp (Buy) – Q2 22 Results Reaction: PayPay Boost to Guidance and In-Line Results

By Kirk Boodry

  • This was a good print with underlying financial/operational results in line with our expectations whilst sector reads on competition (benign) and sales to corporates (positive) matching KDDI’s report
  • The company raised its operating profit forecast by ¥50bn which seems low based on the announced PayPay revaluation gain but could include cover for asset retirement costs
  • An implied valuation of almost ¥1,000bn for the PayPay business overall will have bankers keen but that seems high versus our valuation and public comparables

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Daily Brief Industrials: Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, DISCO Corp, Pylon Technologies Co Ltd, American Rebel Holdings, Laser Photonics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • KLine (Kawasaki Kisen 9107) Announced Q2 Earnings and Possibly Game-Able Buyback (And Index Impact)
  • Disco (6146 JP): Not Immune to a Downturn
  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (3 November 2022)
  • American Rebel Holdings Inc.: Interesting Set Of Updates With Respect To The Champion Acquisition & Diversification
  • Laser Photonics Corporation: An Emerging Star In The Laser Cleaning Industry

KLine (Kawasaki Kisen 9107) Announced Q2 Earnings and Possibly Game-Able Buyback (And Index Impact)

By Travis Lundy

  • Strong but slightly disappointing Q2 earnings from Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (9107 JP), and full-year forecasts are higher, but not as high as consensus. 
  • The company has announced a buyback, to be executed on ToSTNeT-3. Effissimo and Mizuho Bank will participate. Other crossholders could too. 
  • Strategy depends on whether you think they will. If they do not, post-buyback float drops sharply.

Disco (6146 JP): Not Immune to a Downturn

By Scott Foster

  • The share price is at the top of its trading range, but management sees YoY sales and profit growth dropping to single digits this quarter.
  • On a QoQ basis, guidance is for double-digit declines, but that is partly seasonal.
  • The shares have been in a trading range for almost two years. As interest rates rise, economies slow and the semiconductor down-cycle continues, watch out.

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (3 November 2022)

By David Blennerhassett


American Rebel Holdings Inc.: Interesting Set Of Updates With Respect To The Champion Acquisition & Diversification

By Baptista Research

  • American Rebel is a manufacturer a high-tech safes and vaults provider for the modern American consumer.
  • The American Rebel brand has been known for its distinctly American flavor and a strong level of patriotism associated with its practices.
  • Over the past months, the management has been extremely active in terms of executing its inorganic growth strategy and also diversifying its offerings.

Laser Photonics Corporation: An Emerging Star In The Laser Cleaning Industry

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first research note on Laser Photonics and we look to provide an overview of the company operations before diving deeper into its valuation with a full-fledged valuation report which will be released soon.
  • The automotive, building and metalworking industries’ strong need for these technologies and the growing interest in robotic cleaning technologies all support the market’s growth.
  • Laser Photonics is one of the very few American players in the laser blasting space and offers a cutting-edge solution to the significant rust issue that plagues various industries.

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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
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Daily Brief Health Care: Moderna Inc, Sri Trang Gloves (Thailand) Public Company Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Moderna (MRNA US): Q3 Result Misses Expectations; Guidance Slashed As COVID Vax Shipment Deferred
  • Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB): Revised Capacity Expansion Plan to Arrest Downfall in ASP

Moderna (MRNA US): Q3 Result Misses Expectations; Guidance Slashed As COVID Vax Shipment Deferred

By Tina Banerjee

  • Moderna Inc (MRNA US) reported Q3 revenue of $3.36 billion, below expectation, representing y/y decline of 35% and q/q decrease of 31%, due to lower sales volume of COVID-19 vaccine.
  • Management now expects 2022 vaccine revenue of $18–19 billion, down earlier expectation of $21 billion, following delay of certain deliveries into 2023 due to short-term supply constraints.  
  • With the continued higher medical burden of COVID relative to flu, Moderna expects the endemic COVID vaccine market could be as large or larger than flu market volumes over time.

Sri Trang Gloves (STGT TB): Revised Capacity Expansion Plan to Arrest Downfall in ASP

By Tina Banerjee

  • As continued strong market competition and excess capacities from major players have capped upward trajectory for ASP, key global glove manufacturers have revised their capex plans lower.
  • To reflect the current industry climate, Sri Trang expects to reach an annual production capacity of 56.6 billion pieces in 2024 from 81.9 billion pieces earlier.
  • The company aims to launch surgical gloves, which command a high margin, in the domestic market in Q4 2022.

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