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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: LG CNS, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Intel Corp, StubHub Holdings, Oracle Corp, Computer Modelling and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • [Quiddity Index Sep25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 6 ADDs + 6 DELs, 1.5 Pairs to Trade
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Extreme Level; ASE Spread Hits Parity; ChipMOS Near Long Level
  • Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 15-19
  • Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?
  • StubHub IPO (STUB.US): Reasonable Valuation With Superior Gross Margins Unlocks a Buying Opportunity
  • TSMC’s COUPE Signals Silicon Photonics Go-Time — Early Winners in Taiwan’s Listed Supply Chain
  • What the Heck Is Going on with Oracle?
  • Computer Modelling Group Ltd (CMG.) – Friday, Jun 13, 2025


[Quiddity Index Sep25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 6 ADDs + 6 DELs, 1.5 Pairs to Trade

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX). It’s popular.
  • Inside, we look at the names likely to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in December 2025. We see up to 6 ADDs and 6 DELs.
  • There are 1.5 pairs I like here even though we have weeks left. One is “surer” than the other, but they both work fundamentally.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Extreme Level; ASE Spread Hits Parity; ChipMOS Near Long Level

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +24.4% Premium: Remains at Level to Short the ADR Spread
  • ASE: 0.0% (Parity); Open Fresh Longs Here or at a Discount
  • ChipMOS: -1.9% Discount; Near Level to Go Long the Spread

Asia/Pacific Stocks Outlook For the Week Sep 15-19

By Nico Rosti


Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?

By Patrick Liao

  • Why does Intel Corp (INTC US)’s current CFO state “Intel will use TSMC basically forever”? 
  • From Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s perspective, they have always maintained a “no competition with customers” principle.  
  • Another question remains: who will adopt Intel’s 14A technology in 2027-28?  

StubHub IPO (STUB.US): Reasonable Valuation With Superior Gross Margins Unlocks a Buying Opportunity

By Andrei Zakharov

  • StubHub Holdings, the world’s leading live event marketplace, is expected to price its initial public offering on Tuesday.
  • The 20+ times oversubscribed offering may raise up to ~$850M at the high end of the range at $25.00 per share.
  • The American online ticketing giant plans to use net proceeds from the offering to repay ~$550M of existing indebtedness outstanding.

TSMC’s COUPE Signals Silicon Photonics Go-Time — Early Winners in Taiwan’s Listed Supply Chain

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Last week at SEMICON, TSMC unveiled COUPE, moving silicon photonics from lab demos into industrial-scale advanced packaging.
  • Himax, ASE, Zhen Ding, GlobalWafers, ACON, and Accton form Taiwan’s listed ecosystem for silicon photonics adoption.
  • As NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)-driven AI clusters proliferate, the power and cost of moving data between chips have become as constraining as compute itself.

What the Heck Is Going on with Oracle?

By Fallacy Alarm

  • Oracle is on a mission to rival the Big Three cloud providers and its cloud ambitions are part of a theme that will determine GDP growth in the US and globally as a whole.
  • They are guiding for a 10x revenue increase in cloud computing in just four years which would transform Oracle Cloud from a nobody with 3% market share to a leading player with a business larger than AWS is today.
  • Most importantly, this guidance is based on contracted revenue, i.e. revenue that their customers (most importantly OpenAI) basically only can get out by declaring bankruptcy.

Computer Modelling Group Ltd (CMG.) – Friday, Jun 13, 2025

By Value Investors Club (VIC)

Key points (machine generated)

  • CMG specializes in unconventional reservoir simulation software for oil and gas, with a CAD570 million market cap and 65-70% recurring revenue.
  • The company is transforming into a commercially-focused entity, influenced by major shareholder Edgepoint Investment Group and Constellation Software’s heritage.
  • Recent acquisitions have diversified CMG’s offerings and increased revenue past CAD100 million, but the company faced a 45% stock value drop in FY2025 due to declining oil prices.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Financials: Shengjing Bank Co Ltd H, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Klarna Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Offer “Bumped” To A ~84% Disc To NAV From 86.49%
  • Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (15 Sep)
  • Klarna (KLAR US): US-EU Index Exclusion Remains; Slim Prospects for Global Index Inclusion


Shengjing Bank (2066 HK): Offer “Bumped” To A ~84% Disc To NAV From 86.49%

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 26th August, troubled rural commercial bank Shengjing Bank Co Ltd (2066 HK) announced a HK$1.32/Share Offer, a 15.79% premium to undisturbed, and a 86.49% discount to NAV. 
  • Clearly not all is well with Shengjing Bank. And alternatives to the low-balled Offer are slim on the ground. 
  • The Offeror has now bumped terms to HK$1.60 (best & final). That’s a 40.5% premium to undisturbed, but still a 83.96% discount to NAV. 

Relative Value Opportunities in Asia-Pac, Pair Trade Roundup (15 Sep)

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.
  • Highlights: Currently nine pair trade opportunities across four markets and four sectors persist.
  • Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.

Klarna (KLAR US): US-EU Index Exclusion Remains; Slim Prospects for Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Klarna Group (KLAR US) is ineligible for US indices due to incorporation and headquarters in the UK, a foreign listing in the US and a majority of assets in Sweden.
  • Klarna Group (KLAR US) is ineligible for EU indices due to a sole listing in the US.
  • Klarna Group (KLAR US) can achieve inclusion in Global indices given an eligible nationality and following the lock-up expiry which increases float cap and public voting rights.

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Daily Brief Health Care: GenFleet Therapeutics, PolyNovo Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Genfleet (劲方医药) IPO: Margin of Safety
  • PolyNovo (PNV AU): Solid FY25 Performance; Label and Geography Expansion to Accelerate Growth


Genfleet (劲方医药) IPO: Margin of Safety

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Genfleet, a China-based clinical stage biotech company, launched its IPO to raise at least USD 204 million via a Hong Kong listing.
  • In our previous note, we have examined the company’s core product and key product and our thoughts on valuation.
  • In this note, we look at the deal term. We think the valuation provides margin of safety while sentiment is positive.

PolyNovo (PNV AU): Solid FY25 Performance; Label and Geography Expansion to Accelerate Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • PolyNovo Ltd (PNV AU) reported 29% YoY growth in FY25 revenue to A$119M, driven by 29% YoY growth in U.S. sales to A$88M. RoW sales grew 30% YoY to AS$30M.
  • PolyNovo expects continued sales growth as multiple products received relevant regulatory clearance. Leveraging on proven track record in full thickness burn procedures, PolyNovo is driving adoption in additional surgical areas.
  • Strong FY25 result enhances conviction on the growth prospects. Broader rollout of NovoSorb MTX across multiple regions and increasing demand from plastic and reconstructive procedures are expected drive growth.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Soft99 Corp, Alibaba, NIO , Laopu Gold, Meituan, LIFULL, Lifevantage , Continental and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Shock and Awe as Effissimo Emerges with a Competing Offer
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly
  • [Japan M&A/Activism] SOFT99 MBO Sees Activist EffissimoOverbid by 66%! Will This Set New Precedent?
  • ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei
  • Laopu Gold (6181.HK) – Gold Stocks Are Different from Gold Commodities
  • HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap
  • Q3 Follow-Up – LIFULL (2120 JP): September 2, 2025
  • LFVN: 4QFY25 Trails Expectations; Strategic Acquisition Announced
  • Continental Spin-off (Aumovio) Deep Dive
  • Weekly Update (Aumovio, WBD, LION)


Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Shock and Awe as Effissimo Emerges with a Competing Offer

By Arun George

  • On 12 September, Kyodo News reported that Effissimo Capital Management will launch a competing tender offer for Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) at JPY4,100, 66.3% higher than the JPY2,465 MBO offer.
  • The Effissimo offer structure has been designed to shine an unflattering spotlight on the MBO low-ball offer and to prevent management from privatising Soft99.  
  • The management has several options to respond. The initial play will likely be to lean on the special committee to question the feasibility of the Effissimo bid. 

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. BIG Net buying. Big BABA trading. 
  • SOUTHBOUND investors traded US$9bn of Alibaba (9988 HK) in the week. Not shy. It was a big net buy as well (4 of 5 days was +US$500mm or more).
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

[Japan M&A/Activism] SOFT99 MBO Sees Activist EffissimoOverbid by 66%! Will This Set New Precedent?

By Travis Lundy

  • In early August, the founder-family announced they would MBO the car care company Soft99 Corp (4464 JP). It was a very cheap MBO. Even 20% higher it would be cheap. 
  • On Saturday, Kyodo, followed by various other media outlets, announced activist Effissimo Capital Management had announced a TOB to buy the company saying the MBO was “an extremely low level.”
  • The Nikkei-reported goal would be “to protect the interests of minority shareholders while ensuring medium- to long-term increases in corporate value.” This is REALLY BIG NEWS.

ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, things are picking up going into the year end, as is usual, with multiple US$1bn+ deals said to go live over the next few weeks.
  • On the placements front, as well, market remains receptive for both primary and secondary offerings.

Laopu Gold (6181.HK) – Gold Stocks Are Different from Gold Commodities

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The strong bullish sentiment towards gold has boosted Laopu’s share price, but we still have doubts about whether Laopu can truly benefit from the gold price rally in the future.
  • In a crisis, gold stocks will face sell-off. We may see an “interesting phenomenon”- The price of gold commodities is soaring, while gold stocks are performing unsatisfactory or even plummeting.
  • In fact, we already witnessed the inconsistency between the gold commodities prices and Laopu’s share price. This is the core logic we recommend investors take profits on Laopu in time.

HK Volatility Cones: Volatility on the Rise, Meituan and Ping An Historically Cheap

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Context: Volatility cones provide a clear framework to evaluate whether options are trading cheap or rich.
  • Highlights: Implied volatility has increased across the board, but while some stocks recorded a 5-10% increase, other just added 1-2%. Upcoming November earnings start to shape the term structure.
  • Why Read: Spot opportunities, assess regime shifts, and manage risk effectively — volatility cones turn complex data into actionable insights for traders and investors.

Q3 Follow-Up – LIFULL (2120 JP): September 2, 2025

By Sessa Investment Research

  • In Q3 FY2025/9, LIFULL Co., Ltd. (hereafter, the Company) reported consolidated net sales of JPY 21,059 mn, up 7.1% YoY and operating profit of JPY 3,001 mn, up 23.3% YoY .
  • Operating profit rose substantially, backed by strong performance in the HOME’S Services segment.
  • Excluding the one-time gain on sale recorded in the same period a year earlier, operating profit doubled on an actual basis, underscoring a notable improvement in profitability. 

LFVN: 4QFY25 Trails Expectations; Strategic Acquisition Announced

By Water Tower Research

  • LFVN reported 4QFY25 adjusted EPS of $0.17 versus $0.14, up 21.4% and in line with our forecast. FactSet consensus was $0.18. All % changes are Y/Y.
  • Sales in the quarter increased 12.6% to $55.1MM, below our forecast for $59.0MM and FactSet consensus of $56.9MM.
  • Management’s implied 4QFY25 sales range was $54.6-61.6MM so it was at the lower end of management’s previous expectations as well. 

Continental Spin-off (Aumovio) Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

  • Continental (XTRA: CON) is set to spin off its automotive business, Aumovio, on September 18, 2025.
  • The business, which has historically operated with low margins and modest growth, is currently undergoing a turnaround.
  • I estimate Aumovio’s fair value at approximately €56 per share and believe the stock could present an attractive opportunity if it trades down meaningfully following the spin-off.

Weekly Update (Aumovio, WBD, LION)

By Richard Howe

  • Next week, Continental (CON) will spin off its auto parts business, Aumovio, as a public company.
  • The first day of regular trading will be September 18, 2025. Shareholders will receive one share of Aumovio for every two shares of Continental.
  • Aumovio is in the midst of a turnaround, and I was initially skeptical of managements rosy guidance.


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Daily Brief Australia: Ramelius Resources, Catalyst Metals, Santos Ltd, PolyNovo Ltd, Verbrec and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade
  • MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade
  • Merger Arb Mondays (15 Sep) – Santos, Soft99, Technopro, Mandom, Shengjing Bank, Dongfeng Motor
  • PolyNovo (PNV AU): Solid FY25 Performance; Label and Geography Expansion to Accelerate Growth
  • Verbrec Ltd – Big discount plus growth


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
  • The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 13 adds, 2 deletes and 1 listing change for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. There are capping and float changes too.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 14.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are 12 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
  • There are multiple stocks that will have same-way flows from other index trackers at the same time, and the impact will be amplified.


PolyNovo (PNV AU): Solid FY25 Performance; Label and Geography Expansion to Accelerate Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • PolyNovo Ltd (PNV AU) reported 29% YoY growth in FY25 revenue to A$119M, driven by 29% YoY growth in U.S. sales to A$88M. RoW sales grew 30% YoY to AS$30M.
  • PolyNovo expects continued sales growth as multiple products received relevant regulatory clearance. Leveraging on proven track record in full thickness burn procedures, PolyNovo is driving adoption in additional surgical areas.
  • Strong FY25 result enhances conviction on the growth prospects. Broader rollout of NovoSorb MTX across multiple regions and increasing demand from plastic and reconstructive procedures are expected drive growth.

Verbrec Ltd – Big discount plus growth

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Verbrec Limited (ASX:VBC) provides engineering, asset management, operations and maintenance, and training to the energy, mining, infrastructure and defence industries in Australia, New Zealand, PNG and the Pacific Islands.
  • The company operates two divisions in Engineering (~90% of FY25 revenue) and Competency Training (~10% of FY25 revenue).
  • The company has announced that it has signed an agreement to sell Competency Training to RelyOn Australia Pty Ltd for a headline purchase price of $11.5m, payable full in cash on completion, but subject to adjustments for working capital and net cash/debt at completion.

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Daily Brief South Korea: LG CNS and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • [Quiddity Index Sep25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 6 ADDs + 6 DELs, 1.5 Pairs to Trade


[Quiddity Index Sep25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 6 ADDs + 6 DELs, 1.5 Pairs to Trade

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX). It’s popular.
  • Inside, we look at the names likely to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in December 2025. We see up to 6 ADDs and 6 DELs.
  • There are 1.5 pairs I like here even though we have weeks left. One is “surer” than the other, but they both work fundamentally.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: Horizon Robotics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Horizon Robotics, Tencent, CCB, Shandong Gold Mining
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 12th): China Longyuan Power, Fudan Microelectronics, Zijin Mining
  • HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 12th): Alibaba, Horizon Robotics, Pop Mart Intl, BYD, Meituan
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 12th): SK Hynix, Hanwha Ocean, Samsung Electronics, Kakaopay
  • Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Sep 12th): Malaysian Resources, Sime Darby, Bumi Armada, Genting
  • Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Sep 12th): Intouch, Amata, Advanced Info Service, Bangkok Dusit
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 12th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, MediaTek, Delta Electronics
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 12th): Lite-On Technology, MiTAC, Accton Technology, Elite Material


HK Short Interest Weekly: Horizon Robotics, Tencent, CCB, Shandong Gold Mining

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Sep 5th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period.
  • We highlight short changes in Horizon Robotics, Tencent, CCB, Shandong Gold Mining.

A-H Premium Weekly (Sep 12th): China Longyuan Power, Fudan Microelectronics, Zijin Mining

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 157 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 57.8% as of Sep 12th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -2.5ppt week-on-week, led by information technology, consumer staples, financials and offset by consumer discretionary.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Longyuan Power, Fudan Microelectronics, Zijin Mining, CSSC O&M Engineering, Baiyunshan Pharma, SMIC.

HK Connect Flows Weekly (Sep 12th): Alibaba, Horizon Robotics, Pop Mart Intl, BYD, Meituan

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of September 12th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for Alibaba, Horizon Robotics, Pop Mart Intl, BYD, Meituan, Ping An Insurance, Akeso, China Telecom, Xiaomi, Kuaishou.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 12th): SK Hynix, Hanwha Ocean, Samsung Electronics, Kakaopay

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Sep 12th. The aggregated holding was USD694.4bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,835mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Hanwha Ocean, Samsung Electronics, kakaopay, HANWHA AEROSPACE.

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Sep 12th): Malaysian Resources, Sime Darby, Bumi Armada, Genting

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Sep 12th. The aggregated short interest is USD365m.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Malaysian Resources, Sime Darby, Bumi Armada, Genting, Yinson.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Sep 12th): Intouch, Amata, Advanced Info Service, Bangkok Dusit

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Sep 12th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD2.5bn.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Intouch, Amata, Advanced Info Service, Bangkok Dusit, Central Pattana, Bangkok Dusit, Central Pattana, Advanced Info Service.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 12th): TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, MediaTek, Delta Electronics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 12th. The aggregated holding was USD1,263.9bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD4,850mln. We tabulate the league tables for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, MediaTek, Delta Electronics, Wistron, TSMC, Hon Hai Precision, Mediatek, Wistron, Delta Electronics.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Sep 12th): Lite-On Technology, MiTAC, Accton Technology, Elite Material

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Sep 12th. The aggregated short interest was USD26.9bn.
  • We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Lite-On Technology, MiTAC, Accton Technology, Elite Material, Wiwynn, Lite-On Technology, MiTAC, Accton Technology, Elite Material, Wiwynn.

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Most Read: Hanwha Systems Co Ltd, Deep Yellow Ltd, Ramelius Resources, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Alibaba, Soft99 Corp, Vietnam Airlines Jsc, Catalyst Metals, LG CNS and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: Hanwha Systems Added as Stocks Play Offence
  • MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$445m Trade
  • Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade
  • Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Shock and Awe as Effissimo Emerges with a Competing Offer
  • MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly
  • [Japan M&A/Activism] SOFT99 MBO Sees Activist EffissimoOverbid by 66%! Will This Set New Precedent?
  • MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 4 Adds; 9.5% Turnover; US$112m Trade
  • MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade
  • [Quiddity Index Sep25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 6 ADDs + 6 DELs, 1.5 Pairs to Trade


MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: Hanwha Systems Added as Stocks Play Offence

By Brian Freitas

  • Hanwha Systems Co Ltd (272210 KS) will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 19 September.
  • The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$437m.
  • Inflows to the tracking ETF have slowed down but there could be more inflows after a period of consolidation in the underlying stocks.

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Changes Lead to US$445m Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There is 1 add/delete for the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index while there are no constituent changes for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.
  • Encore Energy (EU US) will replace Boss Energy (BOE AU) in the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index. 
  • The round-trip trade across both indices is US$445m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
  • The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.

Soft99 Corp (4464 JP): Shock and Awe as Effissimo Emerges with a Competing Offer

By Arun George

  • On 12 September, Kyodo News reported that Effissimo Capital Management will launch a competing tender offer for Soft99 Corp (4464 JP) at JPY4,100, 66.3% higher than the JPY2,465 MBO offer.
  • The Effissimo offer structure has been designed to shine an unflattering spotlight on the MBO low-ball offer and to prevent management from privatising Soft99.  
  • The management has several options to respond. The initial play will likely be to lean on the special committee to question the feasibility of the Effissimo bid. 

MV US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Capping Leads to US$3bn Trade

By Brian Freitas


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 12 Sep 2025); HUGE Single Stock Trading, ETFs Meh. Tech Bought Bigly

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just under US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. BIG Net buying. Big BABA trading. 
  • SOUTHBOUND investors traded US$9bn of Alibaba (9988 HK) in the week. Not shy. It was a big net buy as well (4 of 5 days was +US$500mm or more).
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

[Japan M&A/Activism] SOFT99 MBO Sees Activist EffissimoOverbid by 66%! Will This Set New Precedent?

By Travis Lundy

  • In early August, the founder-family announced they would MBO the car care company Soft99 Corp (4464 JP). It was a very cheap MBO. Even 20% higher it would be cheap. 
  • On Saturday, Kyodo, followed by various other media outlets, announced activist Effissimo Capital Management had announced a TOB to buy the company saying the MBO was “an extremely low level.”
  • The Nikkei-reported goal would be “to protect the interests of minority shareholders while ensuring medium- to long-term increases in corporate value.” This is REALLY BIG NEWS.

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: 4 Adds; 9.5% Turnover; US$112m Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • FPT Corp,Vietnam Airlines Jsc, Sacombank and Gelex Electricity Jsc will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 19 September.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 9.5% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$112m. There are a couple of stocks with more than 1x ADV to buy from passives.
  • The largest passive inflow will be in Masan Group (MSN VN) following a large increase in the free float for the stock.

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 13 Adds, 2 Deletes; US$2.5bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 13 adds, 2 deletes and 1 listing change for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. There are capping and float changes too.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 14.5% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are 12 stocks with over 3x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
  • There are multiple stocks that will have same-way flows from other index trackers at the same time, and the impact will be amplified.

[Quiddity Index Sep25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 6 ADDs + 6 DELs, 1.5 Pairs to Trade

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX). It’s popular.
  • Inside, we look at the names likely to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in December 2025. We see up to 6 ADDs and 6 DELs.
  • There are 1.5 pairs I like here even though we have weeks left. One is “surer” than the other, but they both work fundamentally.

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Daily Brief ECM: Weekly Deals Digest (14 Sep) – Zijin Gold and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (14 Sep) – Zijin Gold, Chery Auto, Hesai, Mandom, Soft99, Evergrande, Shengjing
  • ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei
  • StubHub IPO (STUB.US): Reasonable Valuation With Superior Gross Margins Unlocks a Buying Opportunity
  • Genfleet (劲方医药) IPO: Margin of Safety


Weekly Deals Digest (14 Sep) – Zijin Gold, Chery Auto, Hesai, Mandom, Soft99, Evergrande, Shengjing

By Arun George


ECM Weekly (15 September 2025)- Chery, Zijin Gold, Hesai, Orion, Myungin, Urban, Nio, Kotak, Toei

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, things are picking up going into the year end, as is usual, with multiple US$1bn+ deals said to go live over the next few weeks.
  • On the placements front, as well, market remains receptive for both primary and secondary offerings.

StubHub IPO (STUB.US): Reasonable Valuation With Superior Gross Margins Unlocks a Buying Opportunity

By Andrei Zakharov

  • StubHub Holdings, the world’s leading live event marketplace, is expected to price its initial public offering on Tuesday.
  • The 20+ times oversubscribed offering may raise up to ~$850M at the high end of the range at $25.00 per share.
  • The American online ticketing giant plans to use net proceeds from the offering to repay ~$550M of existing indebtedness outstanding.

Genfleet (劲方医药) IPO: Margin of Safety

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Genfleet, a China-based clinical stage biotech company, launched its IPO to raise at least USD 204 million via a Hong Kong listing.
  • In our previous note, we have examined the company’s core product and key product and our thoughts on valuation.
  • In this note, we look at the deal term. We think the valuation provides margin of safety while sentiment is positive.

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Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, StubHub Holdings, Oracle Corp, Clarivate , Klarna Group, UFP Industries , FTAI Infrastructure , Lifevantage and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?
  • StubHub IPO (STUB.US): Reasonable Valuation With Superior Gross Margins Unlocks a Buying Opportunity
  • What the Heck Is Going on with Oracle?
  • Clarivate Plc (CLVT) – Friday, Jun 13, 2025
  • Klarna (KLAR US): US-EU Index Exclusion Remains; Slim Prospects for Global Index Inclusion
  • UFPI Expansion Surprise: How Big Can Its Composite Decking Market Share Get by 2026?
  • Ftai Infrastructure Inc (FIP) – Friday, Jun 13, 2025
  • LFVN: 4QFY25 Trails Expectations; Strategic Acquisition Announced


Intel (INTC.US): Who Will Adopt Intel’s 14A Technology?

By Patrick Liao

  • Why does Intel Corp (INTC US)’s current CFO state “Intel will use TSMC basically forever”? 
  • From Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)’s perspective, they have always maintained a “no competition with customers” principle.  
  • Another question remains: who will adopt Intel’s 14A technology in 2027-28?  

StubHub IPO (STUB.US): Reasonable Valuation With Superior Gross Margins Unlocks a Buying Opportunity

By Andrei Zakharov

  • StubHub Holdings, the world’s leading live event marketplace, is expected to price its initial public offering on Tuesday.
  • The 20+ times oversubscribed offering may raise up to ~$850M at the high end of the range at $25.00 per share.
  • The American online ticketing giant plans to use net proceeds from the offering to repay ~$550M of existing indebtedness outstanding.

What the Heck Is Going on with Oracle?

By Fallacy Alarm

  • Oracle is on a mission to rival the Big Three cloud providers and its cloud ambitions are part of a theme that will determine GDP growth in the US and globally as a whole.
  • They are guiding for a 10x revenue increase in cloud computing in just four years which would transform Oracle Cloud from a nobody with 3% market share to a leading player with a business larger than AWS is today.
  • Most importantly, this guidance is based on contracted revenue, i.e. revenue that their customers (most importantly OpenAI) basically only can get out by declaring bankruptcy.

Clarivate Plc (CLVT) – Friday, Jun 13, 2025

By Value Investors Club (VIC)

Key points (machine generated)

  • Clarivate operates in three main segments: Academia & Government, Intellectual Property, and Life Sciences & Healthcare.
  • Academia & Government is the largest revenue contributor at 49-52%, followed by Intellectual Property at 29-33%, and Life Sciences & Healthcare at 13-17%.
  • About half of Clarivate’s revenues come from the higher education sector, including the top 50 universities worldwide.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Klarna (KLAR US): US-EU Index Exclusion Remains; Slim Prospects for Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Klarna Group (KLAR US) is ineligible for US indices due to incorporation and headquarters in the UK, a foreign listing in the US and a majority of assets in Sweden.
  • Klarna Group (KLAR US) is ineligible for EU indices due to a sole listing in the US.
  • Klarna Group (KLAR US) can achieve inclusion in Global indices given an eligible nationality and following the lock-up expiry which increases float cap and public voting rights.

UFPI Expansion Surprise: How Big Can Its Composite Decking Market Share Get by 2026?

By Baptista Research

  • UFP Industries, Inc. has reported its second-quarter financial results for 2025, reflecting a continued trend of challenging market conditions.
  • The company reported revenues of $1.8 billion, a decrease of 3.5% compared to the previous year.
  • Declines in both unit volumes and pricing were noted across its business segments, although recent acquisitions provided some offsetting positive impacts.

Ftai Infrastructure Inc (FIP) – Friday, Jun 13, 2025

By Value Investors Club (VIC)

Key points (machine generated)

  • FIP offers a long-term investment opportunity with potential value in its business segments exceeding current market capitalization.
  • After a stock price increase from $3 to $10, FIP has recently fallen to $6.40, indicating segments may be undervalued and could lead to a 2-3x increase.
  • Factors contributing to FIP’s undervaluation include its small market cap, low trading volume, spin-off status, limited analyst coverage, and a conglomerate structure.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


LFVN: 4QFY25 Trails Expectations; Strategic Acquisition Announced

By Water Tower Research

  • LFVN reported 4QFY25 adjusted EPS of $0.17 versus $0.14, up 21.4% and in line with our forecast. FactSet consensus was $0.18. All % changes are Y/Y.
  • Sales in the quarter increased 12.6% to $55.1MM, below our forecast for $59.0MM and FactSet consensus of $56.9MM.
  • Management’s implied 4QFY25 sales range was $54.6-61.6MM so it was at the lower end of management’s previous expectations as well. 

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