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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Fast Retailing (9983) | Japan Delivers as Tariffs Start to Impact and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Fast Retailing (9983) | Japan Delivers as Tariffs Start to Impact
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)
  • PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue
  • [BYD Company (1211 HK, BUY, TP HK$400) TP Change]: Better than Expected ASP Is the Positive Surprise
  • #134 India Insight: EU 0% Auto Tariff; Warburg ₹800cr Bailout; PAG Plans ₹2.2kcr Nuvama Stake Sale
  • Chord Energy Corporation: Leveraging Simul-Frac Technology To Up Their Game!
  • Merit Medical Systems: An Insight Into Its Product Innovation & Clinical Advancements!
  • Haemonetics Corporation: Diversification Into High-Margin Med-Surg Offerings As A Critical Growth Lever!
  • MSC Industrial Direct Battles Tariffs with Bold Pricing Moves—Will It Pay Off?
  • Noble Corporation: An Insight Into Market Demand, Growth Prospects & Key Growth Drivers!


Fast Retailing (9983) | Japan Delivers as Tariffs Start to Impact

By Mark Chadwick

  • Strong Q2 beat: Revenue rose 14% YoY and OP jumped 33%, driven by Japan strength and solid winter sales, offsetting China’s continued weakness.
  • Guidance tweak: FY business profit raised to ¥540bn, though H2 expectations effectively lowered due to anticipated US tariff impact.
  • US expansion continues: 69 stores now open; North America accounts for 7.5% of sales, with future margin mitigation via supply chain shifts and EU/Asia growth.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for US Tariff! (II)

By Patrick Liao


PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

By Nicolas Baratte

  • PC units grew by 1% in 2024, accelerating to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers: Apple, Lenovo. Higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs but flat end-demand.
  • ~70% of Computers are Made in China, US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.
  • There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.

[BYD Company (1211 HK, BUY, TP HK$400) TP Change]: Better than Expected ASP Is the Positive Surprise

By Eric Wen

  • BYD reported C1Q25 net profit up 86%-119% YoY, with the midpoint exceeds our estimate/consensus by 12%/20%.
  • We believe this driven by better ASP mix of its products, among other factors;
  • We believe a possible China-EU deal on EV market access can be positive for BYD. We raise the TP to HK$400 and place BYD back to TOB BUY.

#134 India Insight: EU 0% Auto Tariff; Warburg ₹800cr Bailout; PAG Plans ₹2.2kcr Nuvama Stake Sale

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The EU is negotiating with India to remove the 100% import duty on fully built cars under FTA.
  • Warburg Pincus plans to lead a INR600 – 800 crore rights issue to rescue troubled Fusion Micro Finance (FUSION IN).
  • PAG has hired JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley to sell its INR 2.2k crore controlling stake in Nuvama Wealth Management (NUVAMA IN)

Chord Energy Corporation: Leveraging Simul-Frac Technology To Up Their Game!

By Baptista Research

  • Chord Energy reported a transformational year in 2024, significantly strengthened by its strategic combination with Enerplus.
  • This merger, completed in May 2024, positioned the company as a leading entity in the Williston Basin.
  • The integration was marked by operational and corporate synergies, enhancing Chord Energy’s scale and efficiency.

Merit Medical Systems: An Insight Into Its Product Innovation & Clinical Advancements!

By Baptista Research

  • Merit Medical Systems reported robust financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, displaying notable revenue and profit growth.
  • The company recorded total revenue of $355.2 million for Q4, reflecting a 9% increase year-over-year on a GAAP basis and 10% on a constant currency basis.
  • This exceeded Merit Medical’s growth expectations, which it had projected at 6% to 9%.

Haemonetics Corporation: Diversification Into High-Margin Med-Surg Offerings As A Critical Growth Lever!

By Baptista Research

  • Haemonetics Corporation reported its third-quarter fiscal 2025 financial results, indicating both strengths and challenges within its various business segments.
  • The company achieved a revenue of $349 million, reflecting a 4% increase on a reported basis but remaining flat organically.
  • Adjusted earnings per share improved by 14% to $1.19.

MSC Industrial Direct Battles Tariffs with Bold Pricing Moves—Will It Pay Off?

By Baptista Research

  • MSC Industrial Supply reported a mixed set of results for its fiscal second quarter of 2025.
  • The company faced challenges in the current quarter, underscored by a decline in average daily sales by 4.7% year-over-year, indicating a soft demand environment.
  • This decline, however, showed slight improvements towards the end of the quarter, with January and February outperforming historical trends.

Noble Corporation: An Insight Into Market Demand, Growth Prospects & Key Growth Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • Noble Corporation’s fourth-quarter 2024 earnings call provided a comprehensive overview of its operational and financial performance while highlighting key strategic initiatives and market outlook.
  • The company recently completed the acquisition of Diamond Offshore, enhancing its positioning in the deepwater drilling market.
  • This integration is progressing well, with $50 million of the targeted $100 million synergies already realized, reflecting operational efficiencies.

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Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Lucror Analytics – Convertibles Brief


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Meituan, China Jinmao, Lenovo, AAC Technologies, China Hongqiao
  • US President Donald Trump has announced on Truth Social a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for more than 75 countries, with these countries to be charged a “substantially lowered reciprocal tariff” of 10% during this transition.
  • That said, Mr Trump raised tariffs on China to 125% (from 104%), after China raised its own tariffs on US imports to 84% (from 34%) in a retaliatory move earlier yesterday.

Lucror Analytics – Convertibles Brief

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Convertibles Brief publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Lenovo
  • Credit markets widened yesterday, with the iTraxx X-Over up 36 bps at 428 bps.

  • Equities were mixed, with European bourses sliding 2.2-4.2%, as the markets closed before US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on additional tariffs for all countries except China.


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Daily Brief Macro: The Drill – The Commodity Onslaught (Still) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • The Drill – The Commodity Onslaught (Still)
  • Tariff Part II: Canada-Mexico Web Ensnares US; USTMA Projects Higher Volume
  • US Travel Crashes Inflation In Mar-25
  • From Rs.87 to Rs.85: Rupee’s Rebound Faces Tariff Test
  • India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%
  • [ETP 2025/15] Tariff Pause Halts Slide in WTI and Henry Hub but U.S.-China Tensions Weigh on Prices
  • CX Daily: Cargo Ships Are Racing Across Pacific as U.S.-China Tariff Deadline Looms


The Drill – The Commodity Onslaught (Still)

By Andreas Steno

  • Greetings from Copenhagen.
  • We were just about to wrap up this week’s edition of The Drill when the news hit: tariffs are officially on pause for all trade partners except China.
  • So that initial line—“risk sentiment was improving a tad this afternoon as markets likely see the worst headlines and data behind us”—can now be upgraded to markets partying like there’s no tomorrow.

Tariff Part II: Canada-Mexico Web Ensnares US; USTMA Projects Higher Volume

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  Components crossing US–Mexico–Canada corridor face disruption  
  •  Reshoring production to US would involve multi-year lead times  
  • USTMA expects U.S. tire shipments of 340.4 million units in 2025

US Travel Crashes Inflation In Mar-25

By Phil Rush

  • Downside news from February’s US CPI print extended into a March crash with a 0.2pp undershoot at -0.05% m-o-m, not just because of a 2.4% m-o-m fall in energy prices.
  • Hotels joined another sharp fall in airfares to drive the core inflation weakness. The late Easter appears responsible, similar to 2023, ahead of an April resurgence.
  • Market participants are unusually unfazed by data that does not reveal the impact of substantial policy changes. Resilience should damp dovish hopes for cuts returning.

From Rs.87 to Rs.85: Rupee’s Rebound Faces Tariff Test

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

  • INR rose from Rs.87.6 in Feb to Rs.85 in Apr 2025, but tariffs may halt this in June.
  • Trade deficit narrowed to $56.5B in Mar, yet expected to hit $60 to 65B in June, pressuring INR.
  • FPI inflows turned positive in Mar but may fade in June due to rate cuts and global uncertainty.

India Twin Deficit Watch: Fiscal Deficit to Shrink to 4% of GDP in FY26, CAD to 0.2%

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • India’s exports (merchandise+invisible) topped US$1trn in 2024, up over 36-fold in 33 years. This has been crucial to bolstering the economy, and is likely to strengthen as Chinese exports recede. 
  • CAD likely moderated to 0.7% of GDP in FY25, and will shrink further in FY26, helped by lower oil prices and broad-based export recovery, as oil-refinery shutdowns end. 
  • Fiscal deficit was 4.4% of GDP in the 12months to Feb’25 (below official estimate of 4.8%). With tax revenue strong, the FY26 fiscal deficit should shrink to 4% of GDP.  

[ETP 2025/15] Tariff Pause Halts Slide in WTI and Henry Hub but U.S.-China Tensions Weigh on Prices

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 04/Apr, U.S. crude inventories rose by 2.6m barrels (vs. expectations of 2.2m rise), and gasoline stockpiles fell less than expected.
  • US natural gas inventories rose by 57 Bcf for the week ending 04/Apr, missing analyst expectations of a 60 Bcf build. Inventories are 2.1% below the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Trump cancelled BP and Shell’s licenses for gas projects in Venezuela. UBS lowered its price target for Chevron, Exxon, Occidental, Halliburton, and Schlumberger.

CX Daily: Cargo Ships Are Racing Across Pacific as U.S.-China Tariff Deadline Looms

By Caixin Global

  • Tariffs /: Cargo ships are racing across Pacific as U.S.-China tariff deadline looms
  • Retaliation /: Trade war escalates as China raises tariffs on U.S. goods to 84%
  • Quant /In Depth: How China’s quant funds became AI incubators

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Daily Brief Thailand: Valeura Energy Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Lower oil prices could generate acquisition opportunities


Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Lower oil prices could generate acquisition opportunities

By Auctus Advisors

  • • 1Q25 production averaged 23.9 mboe/d, which is in line with previous indications.
  • This included a planned seven-day annual maintenance shutdown at the Nong Yao field near the end of the quarter.
  • Production resumed on 1 April.

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Daily Brief Australia: De Grey Mining, Gold Road Resources, EBOS Group and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25: Flow Expectations
  • Gold Road (GOR AU)’s U-Turn On Gruyere’s Underground Mine Estimates
  • EBOS Group Placement – Accretive Deal with Synergies


Quiddity Leaderboard MV Jr-Gold Miners Jun25: Flow Expectations

By Travis Lundy

  • The MV Jr-Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. 
  • This index is reviewed semiannually in March and September. There will be no index changes for the June 2025 index rebal event but there will be capping flows.
  • We expect one-way flows of US$81mm for June 2025 which translates to a turnover of 1.4%.

Gold Road (GOR AU)’s U-Turn On Gruyere’s Underground Mine Estimates

By David Blennerhassett

  • After rejecting  Gold Fields (GFI SJ)‘s Offer last month, calling terms “low ball and opportunistic”, Gold Road (GOR AU) has done a bang-up job how NOT to underpin that position.
  • After correcting minor information (on the 4th April) to an Australian Roadshow Investor Presentation, GOR has now retracted details of the underground mining potential at the Gruyere mine.
  • But don’t expect any new developments in this transaction until after De Grey Mining (DEG AU)‘s Scheme vote on the 16th April.

EBOS Group Placement – Accretive Deal with Synergies

By Nicholas Tan

  • Ebos Group Ltd (EBO NZ) aims to raise around US$122m in order to partly fund its acquisition of SVS Veterinary Supplies (SVS).
  • This will complement the company’s strategy of investing for growth and the second acquisition done in 2H25.
  • In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Posco Future M, CJ Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance
  • Corporate Act Amendment Takes Unexpected Turn: Watch for Holdco Momentum Plays Post-June Election


Korea Short Selling: Biggest Changes in Shorts & Trade Performance

By Brian Freitas

  • The resumption of short selling in Korea came at a good time for investors, giving them some additional tools to manage market volatility.
  • Short interest has increased from 0.17% to 0.23% of market cap for the KOSPI market and from 0.46% to 0.63% for the KOSDAR market.
  • The KOSPI/KOSDAQ ratio has reverted a bit on profit taking, and the forecast index deletions have recovered a bit but should continue to see increase short interest.

Corporate Act Amendment Takes Unexpected Turn: Watch for Holdco Momentum Plays Post-June Election

By Sanghyun Park

  • The word on the street is the Dems are banking on their candidate winning in June, then clearing the veto and pushing the Corporate Act amendment through immediately.
  • What seemed like a dead issue for the Corporate Act amendment has turned into a surprise, shifting market momentum and potentially impacting the Korean stock scene.
  • It could shift the Korean market’s focus to long-term governance improvements, targeting major holdcos like CJ, Hanwha, GS, Doosan, Mobis, SK, and Samsung C&T, with June’s election key.

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Daily Brief India: InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, Nuvama Wealth Management, Bank of Maharashtra, IndiQube Spaces Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: US$1bn+ Total One-Way Flows; ADDs Strongly Outperforming DELs
  • #134 India Insight: EU 0% Auto Tariff; Warburg ₹800cr Bailout; PAG Plans ₹2.2kcr Nuvama Stake Sale
  • #2 Leadership Bytes(08-Apr-25)
  • IndiQube Spaces Pre-IPO – Capacity Has Been Expanding, Though Margins Remain Unstable


Quiddity Leaderboard NIFTY Sep25: US$1bn+ Total One-Way Flows; ADDs Strongly Outperforming DELs

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • NIFTY 50 represents the 50 largest stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India and the NIFTY Next 50 index tracks the next 50 largest names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for these indices in the September 2025 index rebal event.
  • We see two changes for NIFTY 50 and five changes for NIFTY 100. 

#134 India Insight: EU 0% Auto Tariff; Warburg ₹800cr Bailout; PAG Plans ₹2.2kcr Nuvama Stake Sale

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The EU is negotiating with India to remove the 100% import duty on fully built cars under FTA.
  • Warburg Pincus plans to lead a INR600 – 800 crore rights issue to rescue troubled Fusion Micro Finance (FUSION IN).
  • PAG has hired JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley to sell its INR 2.2k crore controlling stake in Nuvama Wealth Management (NUVAMA IN)

#2 Leadership Bytes(08-Apr-25)

By Sudarshan Bhandari


IndiQube Spaces Pre-IPO – Capacity Has Been Expanding, Though Margins Remain Unstable

By Rosita Fernandes

  • IndiQube Spaces Ltd (1628202D IN)  (ISL) is planning to raise about US$100m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • ISL is a managed workplace solutions provider offering technological workplace solutions. As per CBRE Report, ISL is among the leading operators in Bengaluru as of Jun 24.
  • ISL offers enterprise workplace solutions, from large hubs to small spokes, enhancing employee experience through integrated interiors, amenities, and various value-added services for a seamless, efficient office environment.

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Daily Brief United States: Copper, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Plexus Corp, Merit Medical Systems, Chord Energy , Haemonetics Corp, MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc, Lifeway Foods, Sonos Inc, Grocery Outlet Holding Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • The Drill – The Commodity Onslaught (Still)
  • Tariff Part II: Canada-Mexico Web Ensnares US; USTMA Projects Higher Volume
  • Plexus Corp Cuts Debt, Boosts Buybacks, & Tightens Inventory—Here’s What Inspires Our Optimism!
  • Merit Medical Systems: An Insight Into Its Product Innovation & Clinical Advancements!
  • Chord Energy Corporation: Leveraging Simul-Frac Technology To Up Their Game!
  • Haemonetics Corporation: Diversification Into High-Margin Med-Surg Offerings As A Critical Growth Lever!
  • MSC Industrial Direct Battles Tariffs with Bold Pricing Moves—Will It Pay Off?
  • Exploring Strategic Reviews: Key Opportunities in Biopharma and Food Sectors
  • Sonos Inc.: Product Innovation & Market Expansion Is The ONLY Way It Can Thrive!
  • Grocery Outlet: The Top 6 Influences on Its Performance for 2025 & The Future!


The Drill – The Commodity Onslaught (Still)

By Andreas Steno

  • Greetings from Copenhagen.
  • We were just about to wrap up this week’s edition of The Drill when the news hit: tariffs are officially on pause for all trade partners except China.
  • So that initial line—“risk sentiment was improving a tad this afternoon as markets likely see the worst headlines and data behind us”—can now be upgraded to markets partying like there’s no tomorrow.

Tariff Part II: Canada-Mexico Web Ensnares US; USTMA Projects Higher Volume

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  Components crossing US–Mexico–Canada corridor face disruption  
  •  Reshoring production to US would involve multi-year lead times  
  • USTMA expects U.S. tire shipments of 340.4 million units in 2025

Plexus Corp Cuts Debt, Boosts Buybacks, & Tightens Inventory—Here’s What Inspires Our Optimism!

By Baptista Research

  • Plexus Corp. reported strong financial performance and strategic strides in its first quarter of the fiscal year 2025.
  • The company recorded robust revenue of $976 million, meeting its guidance, with performance propelled by agility in response to customer needs and commitments to improving working capital efficiency.
  • The revenue forecast for the full fiscal year anticipates growth across its market sectors, supported by new program ramps and share gains, despite mixed sector trends.

Merit Medical Systems: An Insight Into Its Product Innovation & Clinical Advancements!

By Baptista Research

  • Merit Medical Systems reported robust financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, displaying notable revenue and profit growth.
  • The company recorded total revenue of $355.2 million for Q4, reflecting a 9% increase year-over-year on a GAAP basis and 10% on a constant currency basis.
  • This exceeded Merit Medical’s growth expectations, which it had projected at 6% to 9%.

Chord Energy Corporation: Leveraging Simul-Frac Technology To Up Their Game!

By Baptista Research

  • Chord Energy reported a transformational year in 2024, significantly strengthened by its strategic combination with Enerplus.
  • This merger, completed in May 2024, positioned the company as a leading entity in the Williston Basin.
  • The integration was marked by operational and corporate synergies, enhancing Chord Energy’s scale and efficiency.

Haemonetics Corporation: Diversification Into High-Margin Med-Surg Offerings As A Critical Growth Lever!

By Baptista Research

  • Haemonetics Corporation reported its third-quarter fiscal 2025 financial results, indicating both strengths and challenges within its various business segments.
  • The company achieved a revenue of $349 million, reflecting a 4% increase on a reported basis but remaining flat organically.
  • Adjusted earnings per share improved by 14% to $1.19.

MSC Industrial Direct Battles Tariffs with Bold Pricing Moves—Will It Pay Off?

By Baptista Research

  • MSC Industrial Supply reported a mixed set of results for its fiscal second quarter of 2025.
  • The company faced challenges in the current quarter, underscored by a decline in average daily sales by 4.7% year-over-year, indicating a soft demand environment.
  • This decline, however, showed slight improvements towards the end of the quarter, with January and February outperforming historical trends.

Exploring Strategic Reviews: Key Opportunities in Biopharma and Food Sectors

By Special Situation Investments

  • Lifeway Foods (LWAY) faces a pending takeover by Danone, with a potential board overhaul and strategic acquisition synergies.
  • Liquidia (LQDA) anticipates FDA approval for Yutrepia, challenging UTHR’s monopoly, with potential valuation gap closure post-commercialization.
  • Sage Therapeutics (SAGE) received a buyout offer from Biogen, with ongoing strategic review and potential for increased offer price.

Sonos Inc.: Product Innovation & Market Expansion Is The ONLY Way It Can Thrive!

By Baptista Research

  • Sonos, a prominent player in the home audio industry, recently shared its financial performance for the first fiscal quarter of 2025.
  • The interim CEO, Tom Conrad, highlighted several strategic changes and challenges faced by the company.
  • These insights provide a nuanced basis for evaluating the company’s future investment potential.

Grocery Outlet: The Top 6 Influences on Its Performance for 2025 & The Future!

By Baptista Research

  • Grocery Outlet recently held its fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call, highlighting several key outcomes and strategic initiatives.
  • The performance in Q4 showed a net sales increase of 10.9%, reaching $1.1 billion, with comparable store sales climbing 2.9%.
  • This growth was primarily driven by a 3% rise in customer visits, although the average basket size remained flat.

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Daily Brief China: Goldlion Holdings, Huge Dental, Lenovo, Chagee Holdings, BYD, Meituan, Oriental Watch, Goodman Group, Anta Sports Products and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Attractive Spread Ahead of the Vote on 9 May
  • Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): 9th May Vote On Tsang Family’s Offer
  • Huge Dental Pre-IPO – China’s Leading Dental Materials Player Rides Industry Tailwinds
  • PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue
  • Chagee Holdings IPO Valuation Analysis
  • [BYD Company (1211 HK, BUY, TP HK$400) TP Change]: Better than Expected ASP Is the Positive Surprise
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Oriental Watch (398 HK): Navigating a Tough Demand Environment With 65% of Market Cap in Cash
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (10-Apr-2025): Goodman investing $722M in Sydney data centre
  • Anta Sports (2020 HK): 1Q25 Stable, yet the Margin Remains Our Concern


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Attractive Spread Ahead of the Vote on 9 May

By Arun George

  • Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)’s IFA considers Mr Tsang’s HK$1.5232 per share offer fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 May.
  • The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (<10% disinterested shareholders rejection). FMR holds a blocking stake but should be supportive. 
  • The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for the 10 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.3%/19.0%.

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): 9th May Vote On Tsang Family’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 17th December 2024, Goldlion Holdings (533 HK), an apparel manufacturer/distributor, announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tsang family (2.95% stakeholder), for shares not held. 
  • The Tangs are offerings $1.5232/share (declared final), a 24.85% premium to last price, but a 71% premium to undisturbed. Despite the very low price-to-book multiple, this transaction looks done.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 9th May, with payment on or before the 10th July. The IFA (Altus Capital) says “fair & reasonable“.

Huge Dental Pre-IPO – China’s Leading Dental Materials Player Rides Industry Tailwinds

By Troy Wong

  • HD as a leading dental materials player in China, has achieved robust topline growth over the track record period, driven by its core product lines and favorable industry tailwinds
  • The company generates most of its revenue from the Chinese market, relying heavily on a distribution-led strategy for market expansion.
  • Some areas of concern include signs of a slowdown in growth and potential margin compression if the shift in product mix continues.

PC 1Q25: 5% YoY Growth but Shipments Inflated Ahead of US Tariffs. Dream of a Refresh Cycle Continue

By Nicolas Baratte

  • PC units grew by 1% in 2024, accelerating to 5% YoY in 1Q25. Best performers: Apple, Lenovo. Higher shipments to the US ahead of potential import tariffs but flat end-demand.
  • ~70% of Computers are Made in China, US consumes 25% of total PC. The supply chain is accelerating relocating US-purchased PC out of China, this should be done by end-2025.
  • There is a risk of over-built and over-stocking in my view if PC Brands are too optimistic on Windows 10 end-of-support and AI PC upgrades.

Chagee Holdings IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Chagee Holdings is target price of $46.7 per share, representing 67% higher than the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share). 
  • Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 21.4x on our estimated net profit of 2.9 billion RMB in 2025. 
  • We used a very conservative valuation multiple, mainly due to the extremely high macro risks related to the ongoing tariff dispute between China and the United States.

[BYD Company (1211 HK, BUY, TP HK$400) TP Change]: Better than Expected ASP Is the Positive Surprise

By Eric Wen

  • BYD reported C1Q25 net profit up 86%-119% YoY, with the midpoint exceeds our estimate/consensus by 12%/20%.
  • We believe this driven by better ASP mix of its products, among other factors;
  • We believe a possible China-EU deal on EV market access can be positive for BYD. We raise the TP to HK$400 and place BYD back to TOB BUY.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Meituan, China Jinmao, Lenovo, AAC Technologies, China Hongqiao
  • US President Donald Trump has announced on Truth Social a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for more than 75 countries, with these countries to be charged a “substantially lowered reciprocal tariff” of 10% during this transition.
  • That said, Mr Trump raised tariffs on China to 125% (from 104%), after China raised its own tariffs on US imports to 84% (from 34%) in a retaliatory move earlier yesterday.

Oriental Watch (398 HK): Navigating a Tough Demand Environment With 65% of Market Cap in Cash

By Sameer Taneja

  • Oriental Watch (398 HK) is navigating a challenging demand environment with Watch & Jewelry sales in HK subdued at -21% YoY for Jan-Feb 2025, according to the Department of Statistics.
  • The bright spot is that China sales continue to hold up and account for more than 73% of the company’s sales. Fortunately, Rolex could also increase its allocation to China.
  • We expect a 15%-20% YoY drop in FY25 profits. A 100% payout results in a 12.0% dividend yield, and 65% of the market capitalization is in cash. 

Asia Real Estate Tracker (10-Apr-2025): Goodman investing $722M in Sydney data centre

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Goodman announces $722M investment in 90MW data centre ‘Project Mars’ in Sydney, expanding their data centre portfolio.
  • Executives from Partners Group, CDPQ, and ESR join the speaker list for Singapore Forum, a key event in the data centre industry.
  • Singapore’s GIC collaborates with Alianza in a $329M venture to establish a data centre presence in Brazil, a promising market.

Anta Sports (2020 HK): 1Q25 Stable, yet the Margin Remains Our Concern

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • 1Q25 sales for Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) continue the trend in 4Q24, with ANTA and FILA brands recording a healthy high-single-digit YoY increase.
  • With the US-China trade war, the negative impact on consumer appetite is uncertain. It is difficult to project the 2Q-4Q25 revenue and margin outlook. 
  • Its associate, Amer Sports (AS US), has 36% of revenue from the Americas, while the Jack Wolfskin acquisition has limited contribution. Its 50% premium to sector caps upside.  

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Daily Brief Singapore: SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Tariff Part II: Canada-Mexico Web Ensnares US; USTMA Projects Higher Volume


Tariff Part II: Canada-Mexico Web Ensnares US; USTMA Projects Higher Volume

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  Components crossing US–Mexico–Canada corridor face disruption  
  •  Reshoring production to US would involve multi-year lead times  
  • USTMA expects U.S. tire shipments of 340.4 million units in 2025

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