Smartkarma Daily Briefs

With three trading days left in the review period for the CSI 500 Index (SH000905 INDEX) June rebalance, we forecast 50 changes at the close on 9 June.
There is a big sector skew in the potential changes. We estimate a one-way turnover of 10.77% at the June rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY 6.28bn.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes but there has been a big selloff in the last couple of weeks as the market has headed lower.

Horizon Construction Development IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

Horizon Construction Development (1887128D HK)/HCD, a subsidiary of Far East Horizon (3360 HK), is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$200-250 million, according to press reports.
HCD is the largest equipment operation service provider in China in terms of revenue in 2021, according to Frost & Sullivan.
The key elements of the bull case rest on market share gains, an anticipated post-COVID recovery boost, high revenue visibility, stable operating margin and young equipment life.

Oriental Watch: Recovery of HK Sales in Jan-Feb 2023, Trading at 15% Yield, 50% of Mkt Cap in Cash

By Sameer Taneja

The census and statistics department data for watches and jewelry showed a sharp rebound for HK in Jan-Feb 2023 (up 63% YoY). China sales, we estimate, continue to be resilient.
Over the last month, secondhand watch pricing has also shown an uptrend of 3-4%. This leads us to believe that demand is having a decent uptick in April.
The stock trades at 7.2x PE FY23e, with >50% of the market capitalization in cash and a 15% dividend yield (assuming a 100% payout ratio).

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF): Weekly Close Confirms Bearish Multi-Week Risk

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
Throughout Q4 2022 / Q1 2023 each material turning point has been confirmed by a definitive weekly reversal pattern. Last week produced a definitive bearish weekly reversal pattern.
Long-Term charts imply that MXEF has entered a sustainable multi- quarter uptrend. Last week’s bearish weekly confirmation however, confirms risk of a further counter-trend correction in the coming weeks.

CIMC Enric (3899 HK): It’s Not My Fault, I’m Resilient

By Osbert Tang, CFA

We see the recent sell-down of CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK) unjustified. 1Q23 revenue grew a healthy 19.6%, and management indicated excellent margin expansion as well.
New orders signed accelerated in Mar to 21.6%, from just 10.7% in Jan-Feb. Its order backlog reached Rmb18.9bn (+22.3%). For hydrogen business, new orders even grew 61%.
Guidances are for double-digit revenue growth in FY23, and besides better gross margin, lower tax rates have benefited net margin. We estimate 1Q23 profit may have increased ~50%.

UMP Healthcare: An Undervalued Gem with a Promising Future in Hong Kong’s Healthcare Market

By Sameer Taneja

UMP Healthcare (“UMP”) is Hong Kong’s leading private medical service network. Its network spans 1100+ service providers, 1mm+ scheme members, 2000+ contract customers, and over 1.13mm+ annual clinic visits.
Despite the consistent track record, UMP trades at a 61% discount to its IPO price, 6x PE, and 8% yield with 45% of its market cap in net cash.
We see ingredients in place for a multi-year re-rate, backed by HK’s new Healthcare Policy and the company’s strategic tilt towards higher margin service lines supporting future profit growth.

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Apr 26

Daily Brief South Korea: Mntech Co Ltd, Lutronic Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Matched Order Fraud in Korea: Reason Behind Eight Stocks Hit Massively
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Starting to Crack (After Huge Outperformance)

Matched Order Fraud in Korea: Reason Behind Eight Stocks Hit Massively

By Sanghyun Park

The local ghost hedge fund began to excessively invest in credit, which leveraged 2.5 to 3 times when the eight manipulated stocks started to increase rapidly in price.
Then, the Financial Supervisory Service deemed this excessively-leveraged trading behavior as unusual, and news of an investigation into their activities broke out and triggered them to dump the shares.
The key now is identifying in advance the stocks that will experience similar selling patterns. To do so, we need to prioritize selecting stocks with high-margin balances in recent times.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Starting to Crack (After Huge Outperformance)

With 3 trading days left in the review period for the June rebalance, we see 8 potential changes and 2 close adds for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX).
There are two potential transfers from the KOSDAQ Market to KOSPI Market that could lead to more changes in May and/or June.
Nearly all potential deletions are trading near their lows and short interest has been increasing on some of the stocks. That will be covered closer to implementation of the rebalance.

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Apr 26

Daily Brief United States: Bitcoin, VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, S&P 500 INDEX, EVmo, Ross Stores Inc, Skyworks Solutions, Omnicom Group, Johnson & Johnson, Olo Inc, Analog Devices and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

Bitcoin (XBTUSD) – Recent Decline Is Logical / Necessary / Counter-Trend
“Sell in May” Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear
Late April Break for a 6-Week Decline
Core Business Still Strong with 2023 Off to a Good Start
Ross Stores Inc.: Collaboration With Adidas & Other Drivers
Skyworks Solutions Inc.: Working Towards The Future of Connectivity and Mobility – Key Drivers
Omnicom Group Inc.: Success in Precision Marketing and Public Relations – Key Drivers
Johnson & Johnson: Continued MedTech & Pharma Expansion – Key Drivers
OLO’s Dilemma… (part 2)
Analog Devices Inc.: The Next Big Thing in Mission-Critical Equipment – Key Drivers

Bitcoin (XBTUSD) – Recent Decline Is Logical / Necessary / Counter-Trend

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
Bitcoin (XBTUSD) confirmed a meaningful top in the past 2 weeks when it rejected material MT resistance levels and completed a bearish weekly reversal pattern.
With definitive bullish price and momentum triggers in play, we anticipate that a multi-week period of consolidation / correction will remain counter-trend. Searching for the next MT base towards 25200/25250.

“Sell in May” Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear

By Joe Jasper

The SPX made a high of 4169 last week, tagging our 4165-4200 resistance range. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023, with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible.
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, and with the seasonably weaker “sell in May and go away” period approaching, we continue to recommend higher allocations to defensives
This includes Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX).

Late April Break for a 6-Week Decline

By Thomas Schroeder

Late April capitulation turn unfolding on the SPX trendline break and RTY wedge support breach. We turned bearish (shorting) on April 18 just under SPX 4,200.
A number of breakdown coming through in Asia – Korea’s bear impulse and Taiwan’s break of trendline support that turns the cycle to bearish. Japan will lag.
SPX MACD bear turn is in line with our late April bear phase. A cycle trough is due in 6 weeks time (second week of June).

Core Business Still Strong with 2023 Off to a Good Start

By Water Tower Research

Results recap. EVmo reported record revenues of $12.6 million, up 23% from 2021, on a growing vehicle fleet, higher rental rates from new high-demand cars (Tesla Model 3s), and increased sales efforts.
Based on the existing fleet today, the company expects annual revenues of more than $18 million, which would imply 40% growth over 2022.
Consolidated net loss was $7.1 million, an almost $8 million improvement from 2021 due to sales growth and cost controls.

Ross Stores Inc.: Collaboration With Adidas & Other Drivers

Ross Stores delivered strong fourth-quarter sales and profitability results despite a very competitive holiday season, owing to customers’ positive response to the company’s expanded selection and value offerings.
The company delivered an all-around beat with earnings per share for Q4 reported at $1.31 on a net income of $447 million.
These figures compare to earnings per share of $1.04 on net earnings of $367 million for the 13 weeks ended January 29, 2022.

Skyworks Solutions Inc.: Working Towards The Future of Connectivity and Mobility – Key Drivers

Skyworks Solutions reported a strong first-quarter financial results, with sales above the analyst consensus estimate, robust profitability, and significant cash flow performance.
In addition to the strong financial performance, Skyworks expanded its design win pipeline in a number of emerging high-growth markets.
Skyworks expanded its expanding technology portfolio across a growing customer base in IoT.

Omnicom Group Inc.: Success in Precision Marketing and Public Relations – Key Drivers

Omnicom Group delivered an all-around beat as its revenues increased by 1%, while non-GAAP adjusted operating income remained unchanged.
Net interest expense decreased as interest income exceeded the company’s expectations.
We give Omnicom Group a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Johnson & Johnson: Continued MedTech & Pharma Expansion – Key Drivers

Johnson & Johnson reported strong operational performance in the quarter, demonstrating the power and adaptability of Johnson & Johnson as well as its dedication to enhancing global health outcomes.
They also anticipate a number of pipeline advances in 2023 that will boost confidence in their Pharmaceutical and MedTech companies.
Johnson & Johnson remains confident in its ability to generate near-term success, long-term growth, and shareholder value creation in the future.

OLO’s Dilemma… (part 2)

By Guasty Winds

Over the past few weeks I’ve done a handful of checks with competitors and customers in the restaurant-tech industry.
It was by no means exhaustive but definitely insightful.
Some were first party conversations; others came from 3rd party expert networks, podcasts interviews (there are lots of good ones out there, by the way) and other vendor white-papers etc.

Analog Devices Inc.: The Next Big Thing in Mission-Critical Equipment – Key Drivers

Despite significant macroeconomic uncertainty in the first quarter of fiscal 2023, Analog Devices managed to deliver an all-around beat.
These successes were driven by the company’s unwavering commitment to customer collaboration, the rising demand for cutting-edge technologies, and effective operational management.
We give Analog Devices a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

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Apr 26

Daily Brief Singapore: Sembcorp Marine, Esco Lifesciences Group, ESR Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: KDCREIT Facing Risk of Deletion
Esco Lifesciences (1891571D SP) Pre-IPO: A Profitable Revenue Growth Saga
10 in 10 with ARA US Hospitality Trust – Recovery On Track

Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: KDCREIT Facing Risk of Deletion

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for Singapore’s ST index (“STI”) between now and the September 2023 index review.
With roughly 4 more months left for the base date, Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) seems to be an ADD but it is close to the border.
Since the ranking system used for this index in based on prices as at a single point in time, the rankings could change significantly and our expectations could change too.

Esco Lifesciences (1891571D SP) Pre-IPO: A Profitable Revenue Growth Saga

By Tina Banerjee

Esco Lifesciences Group (1891571D SP), a profitable lifesciences tool provider with a global presence, is looking to raise $300M in its upcoming HK IPO.
The company clocked revenue of S$117M in 2019, which steadily rose to S$155M in 2020 and S$172M in 2021, representing CAGR of 21%, outpacing lifesciences equipment market growth of 10%.
In May 2021, Esco raised $200M through series-A fund raising with investors holding nearly 24% of the shares. This puts its valuation at around $840M.

10 in 10 with ARA US Hospitality Trust – Recovery On Track

By Geoff Howie

10 in 10 with ARA US Hospitality Trust – Recovery On Track

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Apr 26

Daily Brief India: Mankind Pharma and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Mankind Pharma: IPO Details & Index Inclusion

Mankind Pharma: IPO Details & Index Inclusion

Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN) is looking to raise up to US$526m in its IPO by selling 40.06m shares at a price range of INR 1026 to INR 1080 per share.
The company has allocated 12.02m shares to anchor investors at INR 1080/share. That list includes marquee names and the lock-up reduces near-term float.
The IPO opens on 25 April and will close on 27 April. Shares are expected to start trading on 9 May and there are no near-term index inclusions expected.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Apr 26

Daily Brief Financials: Bitcoin, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, S&P 500 INDEX, Road King Infrastructure, Merchants Trust and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Bitcoin (XBTUSD) – Recent Decline Is Logical / Necessary / Counter-Trend
MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF): Weekly Close Confirms Bearish Multi-Week Risk
Late April Break for a 6-Week Decline
Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure
The Merchants Trust – Higher dividends for the last 41 years

Bitcoin (XBTUSD) – Recent Decline Is Logical / Necessary / Counter-Trend

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
Bitcoin (XBTUSD) confirmed a meaningful top in the past 2 weeks when it rejected material MT resistance levels and completed a bearish weekly reversal pattern.
With definitive bullish price and momentum triggers in play, we anticipate that a multi-week period of consolidation / correction will remain counter-trend. Searching for the next MT base towards 25200/25250.

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF): Weekly Close Confirms Bearish Multi-Week Risk

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
Throughout Q4 2022 / Q1 2023 each material turning point has been confirmed by a definitive weekly reversal pattern. Last week produced a definitive bearish weekly reversal pattern.
Long-Term charts imply that MXEF has entered a sustainable multi- quarter uptrend. Last week’s bearish weekly confirmation however, confirms risk of a further counter-trend correction in the coming weeks.

Late April Break for a 6-Week Decline

By Thomas Schroeder

Late April capitulation turn unfolding on the SPX trendline break and RTY wedge support breach. We turned bearish (shorting) on April 18 just under SPX 4,200.
A number of breakdown coming through in Asia – Korea’s bear impulse and Taiwan’s break of trendline support that turns the cycle to bearish. Japan will lag.
SPX MACD bear turn is in line with our late April bear phase. A cycle trough is due in 6 weeks time (second week of June).

Morning Views Asia: Road King Infrastructure

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Road King Infrastructure

The Merchants Trust – Higher dividends for the last 41 years

By Edison Investment Research

Simon Gergel at Allianz Global Investors has managed The Merchants Trust (MRCH) for the last 17 years. His disciplined fundamental investment process has proved to be a successful strategy as MRCH is ahead of its benchmark over the last one, three, five and 10 years. The trust’s NAV total returns also rank top out of 20 funds in the AIC UK Equity Income sector over the last three years. MRCH has a commendable dividend track record, having increased its annual payments for the last 41 consecutive years, and its yield is consistently above the level of the UK market. Gergel’s, and the board’s, confidence in the positive prospects for the UK market is illustrated by a higher level of gearing; the remainder of the trust’s debt facility was drawn down in November 2022.

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Apr 26

Daily Brief Industrials: Sembcorp Marine, Horizon Construction Development, CIMC Enric Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: KDCREIT Facing Risk of Deletion
Horizon Construction Development IPO: The Bull Case
CIMC Enric (3899 HK): It’s Not My Fault, I’m Resilient

Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: KDCREIT Facing Risk of Deletion

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for Singapore’s ST index (“STI”) between now and the September 2023 index review.
With roughly 4 more months left for the base date, Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) seems to be an ADD but it is close to the border.
Since the ranking system used for this index in based on prices as at a single point in time, the rankings could change significantly and our expectations could change too.

Horizon Construction Development IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

Horizon Construction Development (1887128D HK)/HCD, a subsidiary of Far East Horizon (3360 HK), is pre-marketing an HKEx IPO to raise US$200-250 million, according to press reports.
HCD is the largest equipment operation service provider in China in terms of revenue in 2021, according to Frost & Sullivan.
The key elements of the bull case rest on market share gains, an anticipated post-COVID recovery boost, high revenue visibility, stable operating margin and young equipment life.

CIMC Enric (3899 HK): It’s Not My Fault, I’m Resilient

By Osbert Tang, CFA

We see the recent sell-down of CIMC Enric Holdings (3899 HK) unjustified. 1Q23 revenue grew a healthy 19.6%, and management indicated excellent margin expansion as well.
New orders signed accelerated in Mar to 21.6%, from just 10.7% in Jan-Feb. Its order backlog reached Rmb18.9bn (+22.3%). For hydrogen business, new orders even grew 61%.
Guidances are for double-digit revenue growth in FY23, and besides better gross margin, lower tax rates have benefited net margin. We estimate 1Q23 profit may have increased ~50%.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Apr 26

Daily Brief Health Care: Mankind Pharma, Lutronic Corp, VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF, UMP Healthcare, WuXi AppTec, YSB Inc, Esco Lifesciences Group, Johnson & Johnson and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Mankind Pharma: IPO Details & Index Inclusion
KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Starting to Crack (After Huge Outperformance)
“Sell in May” Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear
UMP Healthcare: An Undervalued Gem with a Promising Future in Hong Kong’s Healthcare Market
WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) 2023Q1 – The Signals Behind the Plunge in Stock Price
Pre-IPO YSB Inc (YSB.HK) – The Business Model Is Facing Challenges
Esco Lifesciences (1891571D SP) Pre-IPO: A Profitable Revenue Growth Saga
Johnson & Johnson: Continued MedTech & Pharma Expansion – Key Drivers

Mankind Pharma: IPO Details & Index Inclusion

Mankind Pharma (6596876Z IN) is looking to raise up to US$526m in its IPO by selling 40.06m shares at a price range of INR 1026 to INR 1080 per share.
The company has allocated 12.02m shares to anchor investors at INR 1080/share. That list includes marquee names and the lock-up reduces near-term float.
The IPO opens on 25 April and will close on 27 April. Shares are expected to start trading on 9 May and there are no near-term index inclusions expected.

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: Adds Starting to Crack (After Huge Outperformance)

With 3 trading days left in the review period for the June rebalance, we see 8 potential changes and 2 close adds for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX).
There are two potential transfers from the KOSDAQ Market to KOSPI Market that could lead to more changes in May and/or June.
Nearly all potential deletions are trading near their lows and short interest has been increasing on some of the stocks. That will be covered closer to implementation of the rebalance.

“Sell in May” Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear

By Joe Jasper

The SPX made a high of 4169 last week, tagging our 4165-4200 resistance range. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023, with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible.
Considering limited upside in both scenarios, and with the seasonably weaker “sell in May and go away” period approaching, we continue to recommend higher allocations to defensives
This includes Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX).

UMP Healthcare: An Undervalued Gem with a Promising Future in Hong Kong’s Healthcare Market

By Sameer Taneja

UMP Healthcare (“UMP”) is Hong Kong’s leading private medical service network. Its network spans 1100+ service providers, 1mm+ scheme members, 2000+ contract customers, and over 1.13mm+ annual clinic visits.
Despite the consistent track record, UMP trades at a 61% discount to its IPO price, 6x PE, and 8% yield with 45% of its market cap in net cash.
We see ingredients in place for a multi-year re-rate, backed by HK’s new Healthcare Policy and the company’s strategic tilt towards higher margin service lines supporting future profit growth.

WuXi AppTec (2359.HK/603259.CH) 2023Q1 – The Signals Behind the Plunge in Stock Price

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Excluding COVID-19 projects, some of WuXi AppTec’s conventional CXO business growth rate has declined significantly. So, the fading of COVID-19 dividend period is not the only reason for the performance decline.
The supply-side reform of innovative drugs is further deepened, and the effect of industry clearing is obvious. So, the “winner-takes-all” logic will be gradually deduced in the future.
WuXi AppTec’s controlling shareholders seem to “have foreseen something”- They could continue to reduce holdings on rallies in the future. Together with longer-than-expected industry winter, valuation center could further decline.

Pre-IPO YSB Inc (YSB.HK) – The Business Model Is Facing Challenges

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The margins of pharmaceutical circulation B2B business is low. If there’s not enough incremental space of terminal customers, the simple B2B trading model is difficult to form a leapfrog growth.
Based on YSB’s business model, if terminal customers choose to use other platforms like JD Health/Alibaba Health, etc., YSB would face the risk of losing upstream and downstream users.
So far, we haven’t seen that YSB has established core competitiveness or moat to secure the terminal customers pool, casting doubts on its business model, investment logic and outlook.

Esco Lifesciences (1891571D SP) Pre-IPO: A Profitable Revenue Growth Saga

By Tina Banerjee

Esco Lifesciences Group (1891571D SP), a profitable lifesciences tool provider with a global presence, is looking to raise $300M in its upcoming HK IPO.
The company clocked revenue of S$117M in 2019, which steadily rose to S$155M in 2020 and S$172M in 2021, representing CAGR of 21%, outpacing lifesciences equipment market growth of 10%.
In May 2021, Esco raised $200M through series-A fund raising with investors holding nearly 24% of the shares. This puts its valuation at around $840M.

Johnson & Johnson: Continued MedTech & Pharma Expansion – Key Drivers