Smartkarma Daily Briefs, Author at Smartkarma

Sep 08

Daily Brief Health Care: Global Health (Medanta), PureTech Health and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Global Health Pre-IPO – Stiff Competition Makes Growth Look Mediocre
PureTech Health (PRTC LN): Continued Value Unlocking; Multiple Catalysts Are Pushing Up Stock Price

Global Health Pre-IPO – Stiff Competition Makes Growth Look Mediocre

By Ethan Aw

Global Health (Medanta) (GH IN) is looking to raise approximately US$270m in its upcoming India IPO.
Global Health (GH) is a hospital network that operates under the Medanta brand. The firm currently has five hospitals in operation and one more planned for development.
The company has managed to remain profitable throughout COVID-19 and even experienced margin expansion in FY22. However, its post-COVID growth might be short-lived given stiff competition amongst peers.

PureTech Health (PRTC LN): Continued Value Unlocking; Multiple Catalysts Are Pushing Up Stock Price

By Tina Banerjee

PureTech Health (PRTC LN) has raised approximately $115.4 million through partial offloading of stake in Karuna Therapeutics Inc (KRTX US). PureTech will continue to hold 3.5% of Karuna’s outstanding shares.
Following the transactions, PureTech has updated guidance to extend its operational runway to Q1 2026 from prior cash runway guidance into Q1 2025.
Karuna plans to submit a new drug application for KarXT in schizophrenia with the FDA in mid-2023. As a co-inventor of KarXT, PureTech has the right to receive royalty.

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Sep 08

Daily Brief Industrials: Hitachi Transport System, SG Holdings, CALB, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Hitachi Transport (9086 JP) – Tender Launch Likely Soon But Watch for Flow
SG Holdings Placement – Had Suffered from Weak Price Momentum, Buyback Should Support Share Price
CALB IPO: The Bear Case
Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – The Beginning of the End of the Overhang

Hitachi Transport (9086 JP) – Tender Launch Likely Soon But Watch for Flow

By Travis Lundy

Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) has had a “long” wait to get its approvals, but EC and China are in, any remaining should be in shortly.
Yesterday, as a footnote on the SG Holdings offering document, there was a comment about SG Holdings selling shares. This was likely more good corporate governance hygiene than warning.
Shares are down this morning. I’d expect final approvals and launch quite soon. I would therefore look to buy the dip on flow – block or not.

SG Holdings Placement – Had Suffered from Weak Price Momentum, Buyback Should Support Share Price

By Clarence Chu

MUFG Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp are looking to raise a combined US$210m from trimming their respective stakes in SG Holdings (9143 JP).
While representing 16 days of three month ADV, comprising only 10.1m shares, 1.57% of the firm’s current market cap, the deal is a small one on an absolute basis.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

CALB IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

CALB (CALBLZ CH), a leading EV battery manufacturer, is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion through an HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
In CALB IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on its small scale, low profitability and high FCF burn compared to listed peers.

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – The Beginning of the End of the Overhang

By Sumeet Singh

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)’s co-founder Rakesh Gangwal aims to raise around US$250m via selling 2.8% of the company.
He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with the other co-founder Rahul Bhatia.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Sep 08

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: China Shenhua Energy Co H, Australian Strategic Materials, Crude Oil and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Could Be A BIG One
MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Potential Deletes
S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Could Be A BIG One

By Brian Freitas

There could be up to 6 changes to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the December rebalance, mainly driven by the deletions.
If there are six changes to the index, estimated one-way turnover is 6.47% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4,124m.
There is large short interest on quite a lot of stocks and will play an important role in the rebalance.

MVIS Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Potential Deletes

By Brian Freitas

Sierra Rutile Holdings (SRX AU) is a high probability delete from the index, while Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU) is close to the deletion threshold.
Sayona Mining (SYA AU) is the highest ranked non-constituent while Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) only makes inclusion at the entire IPO raise.
Deletion from the index will require passive trackers to sell over 5 days of ADV on Australian Strategic Materials (ASM AU).

S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

By Joe Jasper

Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on the S&P 500, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
We see a bounce as possible at these levels, but breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows — or worse.
WTI crude oil is breaking below the critical $85 support level, confirming a major top in place. The Bloomberg commodity index needs to break $32.50 to confirm a major top.

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Sep 08

Daily Brief Industrials: Hitachi Transport System, SG Holdings, CALB, InterGlobe Aviation Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Hitachi Transport (9086 JP) – Tender Launch Likely Soon But Watch for Flow
SG Holdings Placement – Had Suffered from Weak Price Momentum, Buyback Should Support Share Price
CALB IPO: The Bear Case
Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – The Beginning of the End of the Overhang

Hitachi Transport (9086 JP) – Tender Launch Likely Soon But Watch for Flow

By Travis Lundy

Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) has had a “long” wait to get its approvals, but EC and China are in, any remaining should be in shortly.
Yesterday, as a footnote on the SG Holdings offering document, there was a comment about SG Holdings selling shares. This was likely more good corporate governance hygiene than warning.
Shares are down this morning. I’d expect final approvals and launch quite soon. I would therefore look to buy the dip on flow – block or not.

SG Holdings Placement – Had Suffered from Weak Price Momentum, Buyback Should Support Share Price

By Clarence Chu

MUFG Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp are looking to raise a combined US$210m from trimming their respective stakes in SG Holdings (9143 JP).
While representing 16 days of three month ADV, comprising only 10.1m shares, 1.57% of the firm’s current market cap, the deal is a small one on an absolute basis.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

CALB IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

CALB (CALBLZ CH), a leading EV battery manufacturer, is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion through an HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
In CALB IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on its small scale, low profitability and high FCF burn compared to listed peers.

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – The Beginning of the End of the Overhang

By Sumeet Singh

InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)’s co-founder Rakesh Gangwal aims to raise around US$250m via selling 2.8% of the company.
He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with the other co-founder Rahul Bhatia.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

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Sep 08

Daily Brief Financials: Soho China, United Nations Global Compact, CIFI Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

SOHO China (410 HK): Blackstone Deal Potentially Back On As Pan Shiyi Goes “Altruistic”
2022 UNGC Ten Principle Compliance Report on Korean Listed Companies
Morning Views Asia: China SCE, CIFI Holdings

SOHO China (410 HK): Blackstone Deal Potentially Back On As Pan Shiyi Goes “Altruistic”

By David Blennerhassett

Pan Shiyi and Pan Zhangxin – Chairman and CEO respectively of SOHO China (410 HK) – have tendered their resignations, with immediate effect.
Both are resigning “to focus on supporting the arts and philanthropic pursuits“.
That sounds like a “donation” is on the cards. And the Pans selling their stake in SOHO China would nicely fund that donation.

2022 UNGC Ten Principle Compliance Report on Korean Listed Companies

By Yujin Oh

Major index providers and investment management companies reflect on United Nations Global Compact (UNGC) principles for the assessment of portfolios. This particular UNGC compliance analysis focuses on Korean listed companies.
The evaluation of Korea’s 828 listed companies and their sustainable management level utilised Who’s Good’s ESG evaluating framework, ‘Performance Analysis’ and ‘Incident Analysis’ and applied it to the Ten Principles.
Only 10% of the 828 listed companies were members of the UNGC, and 50% of the top 100 companies who scored the highest in UNGC scores, were members of UNGC.

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, CIFI Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

China SCE
CIFI Holdings

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Sep 08

Daily Brief Consumer: Evolution Gaming Group Ab, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Porsche Automobil Holding Se, Campbell Soup Co, Capri Holdings, Ulta Beauty, Inc., Upstart Holdings Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Evolution Gaming: The World’s Largest Casino, Which You Probably Never Heard Of
Investment Managers Should Seek Ways to Reflect ESG Investing in Their Investment Performance
Intention to Float Porsche AG: A Good Deal for Porsche Automobile Holding SE
Campbell Soup Inc: Online Sales As A Key Driver & Other Factors Driving Growth
Capri Holdings: Digital Momentum & Other Drivers
Ulta Beauty: The Beauty& Campaign
Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, Trex

Evolution Gaming: The World’s Largest Casino, Which You Probably Never Heard Of

By Steven Chen

Although lesser-known, this Swedish company dominates one of the most lucrative segments of the global casino industry.
In our view, it is probably the only investable casino company, and despite its size, still has a massive growth runway ahead.
Our DCF model implies a 15%-20% total return for the company’s long-term shareholders.

Investment Managers Should Seek Ways to Reflect ESG Investing in Their Investment Performance

By Aki Matsumoto

The lackluster ESG investing trust performance is the main reason for the sharp decline in new setups, as retail investors tend to trade short term.
The fact that Japanese companies aren’t leading the world in green practices and are reluctant to disclose their activities are the factors that prevent wash from occurring and being detected.
While it’s difficult to evaluate ESG investing in short-term-performance, it’s important to pay attention to how management is taking measures to increase corporate value in ESG perspective in particular G.

Intention to Float Porsche AG: A Good Deal for Porsche Automobile Holding SE

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Volkswagen aims for an IPO of Porsche AG (operating company). 25% of preferreds will be placed and 25% of ords sold to Porsche Automobile Holding SE (combined, 25% equity capital).
Thought a holding chain, the Pïech and Porsche families will directly control 25% of the votes of Porsche AG and 39.975% indirectly (total of 64.975%), with just a 24.275% economic interest.
Porsche Automobile Holding SE will cover c.30% of the cost of its stake through the extraordinary dividend that Volkswagen will pay. It also gets the ords at a friendly price.

Campbell Soup Inc: Online Sales As A Key Driver & Other Factors Driving Growth

By Baptista Research

The demand for Campbell’s portfolio of brands continued to be strong in the last quarter and it was able to match the market’s revenue expectations through its result.
The company was able to deliver an earnings beat as it enhanced supply chain performance and put into place efficient revenue management to combat inflation.
Their Win in Soup approach will remain strong in fiscal 2023 largely due to innovation.

Capri Holdings: Digital Momentum & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

Capri has seen a decent performance across all three of its luxury residences and 2022 has been delivering better results than the management had anticipated.
The company delivered an all-around beat with a revenue of $1.36 billion, which exceeded management and market expectations.
Fendace combined unique features with classic silhouettes from two renowned Italian luxury brands, Fendi and Versace.

Ulta Beauty: The Beauty& Campaign

By Baptista Research

Ulta Beauty performed well in this quarter and delivered an all-around beat.
Based on point-of-sale statistics from the NPD Group, all key categories for the quarter exceeded its expectations, and they grew their market share in prestige beauty compared to the previous year.
Haircare, their second-largest category, experienced double-digit growth for another quarter due to newness and excellent participation in their semi-annual Gorgeous Hair Event.

Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, Trex

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business.
Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts. This week we flag: Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, Trex

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Sep 07

Daily Brief ESG: Director Compensation Should Be Changed from Stable Compensation to More Variable Compensation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

Director Compensation Should Be Changed from Stable Compensation to More Variable Compensation

Director Compensation Should Be Changed from Stable Compensation to More Variable Compensation

By Aki Matsumoto

The reason for high remuneration of foreign directors isn’t only that remuneration is determined based on overseas compensation levels, but also that fixed remuneration for directors in Japan is high.
It is hoped that more companies will increase the proportion of variable compensation, and that for shareholders, performance will increase enough to significantly increase variable compensation.
In order for directors to fulfill their responsibilities in determining important strategies, the system must be designed to be high-risk and high-return as well as individually disclosed.

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Sep 07

Daily Brief Private Markets: Ninja Van: SEA’s Last-Mile Courier with ~100% Regional Coverage and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

Ninja Van: SEA’s Last-Mile Courier with ~100% Regional Coverage
Carro: Southeast Asia’s Leading Used Car Marketplace

Ninja Van: SEA’s Last-Mile Courier with ~100% Regional Coverage

By Alec Tseung

Ninja Van is a leading Singapore-based logistics company in Southeast Asia with almost 100% last-mile courier coverage of the region.
The company was valued at $1.85bn based on its previous capital raise in September 2021.
An investment in the company could offer indirect and broader exposure to Southeast Asia’s e-commerce sector since it counts most of the e-commerce players in the region as its clients.

Carro: Southeast Asia’s Leading Used Car Marketplace

By Alec Tseung

An online used car marketplace in Singapore that offers full-stack services across a customer’s car ownership lifecycle.
The company facilitated an annual run-rate GMV of ~S$1 billion (with >2 million MAUs) in 2020 and managed to earn a revenue of c. $465m in FY21.
It reached unicorn status in the previous round of fund raise in Jun 2021 and has started preparing for an IPO internally.

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Sep 07

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Dutch TTF Gas and Impact on WTI and DAX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Dutch TTF Gas and Impact on WTI and DAX

Dutch TTF Gas and Impact on WTI and DAX

By Thomas Schroeder

TTF Dutch gas futures are set to rally off of trendline and price support that will ripple into oil and our DAX short theme.
Oil saw a lift off the 86 support base on the back of TTF Gas popping higher and prospects of a hard European winter.
DAX pressure building to break the 12,400/500 pivot support that would in turn crack noted MACD support. Short theme working. New low target remains at 11,500.

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