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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Mar 28
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Indosat Tbk PT, Alam Sutera Realty, PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Indosat (ISAT IJ) – The Telco Changeling
  • Alam Sutera: Weak Results, with Declining Margins and Credit Deterioration
  • WIKA: Decent 1H18

Indosat (ISAT IJ) – The Telco Changeling

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Indosat (ISAT IJ) has come back from being the loss-making underdog amongst the Indonesian telcos and is now well and truly on the rebound, with significant potential upside.
  • The acquisition of Hutchison’s “3” has propelled the company into the number two spot in terms of market share and enabled better quality coverage after a well-orchestrated merger. 
  • Indosat now has a 4G footprint in Java greater than Telkomsel and with significant potential to gain share ex-Java, which provides higher returns. Valuations remain attractive. 

Alam Sutera: Weak Results, with Declining Margins and Credit Deterioration

By BOS Research

  • Established in 1993, PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (Alam Sutera) is a small Indonesian property developer, focused on the development and management of large-scale townships of residential and commercial property.
  • As of FY16, the company held total land bank of 1,898 hectares in gross area.
  • Key source of earnings remain property development sales, with recurring income limited and derived from leases in its shopping malls.

WIKA: Decent 1H18

By BOS Research

  • Net profit up 19% YoY on strong revenue growth. New order flow remains decent.
  • Maintain IDR 2,300 TP, valuations look attractive
  • With a diversified portfolio of private construction and public infrastructure projects, WIKA offers broad exposure to Indonesia’s infrastructure investment growth

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Mar 28
0

Daily Brief United States: Nasdaq-100 Stock Index, Binance Coin, NFT, Equifax Inc, Gold, Hologic Inc, C.H. Robinson Worldwide and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias
  • Binance Volume Plummets After End of Zero-Fee Trading
  • Athlete-Direct-to-Fan: The Future or FAD?
  • Equifax Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Equifax Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat // Trafigura CFO sees more Volatility ahead
  • Hologic Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Post-Pandemic Impact & Key Drivers
  • Hologic Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Q1 2023 has confirmed that the material 2022 downward correction is likely complete. Subsequently, after a period of correction, the resumption of the Q4/Q1 uptrend was confirmed.
  • Bullish price triggers combine with positive MT/LT momentum triggers to initially target 13740. A break above 13740 is increasingly likely and would present a far more bullish MT outlook.

Binance Volume Plummets After End of Zero-Fee Trading

By Kaiko

  • On March 22, Binance halted its no-fee trading promotion for 13 BTC spot trading pairs, reversing a move that helped boost the exchange’s market share by more than 20% relative to its competitors.
  • The exchange also announced that it would be eliminating trading fees for the BTC-TUSD pair, which was mothballed in September and only recently re-listed.
  • It is unclear why Binance has chosen to promote its TUSD pair, although it appears the exchange has selected the stablecoin as a successor to BUSD, which is being phased out because of regulatory actions in the U.S. 

Athlete-Direct-to-Fan: The Future or FAD?

By Sporting Crypto

  • The way fans interact with sports has changed an incredible amount over the past 20 years.
  • We’ve seen broadcasting, social media, streaming and such all impact the way fans consume the sports they love.
  • The future of fan engagement is always a hot topic because things are always changing, of course.

Equifax Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Equifax is one of the largest consumer credit reporting companies in the U.S.
  • It has strong financial fundamentals which are helping it thrive in the turbulent business environment that includes an unprecedented decline in the mortgage market.
  • Their global non-mortgage businesses has been performing well and is fueled by Workforce Solutions’ remarkable performance.

Equifax Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on the multinational consumer credit reporting player, Equifax.
  • Their global non-mortgage businesses performed exceptionally well, with constant currency revenue growth of 12% and constant organic currency revenue growth of 10%.
  • Equifax further announced the acquisition of the Food Industry Credit Bureau.

Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat // Trafigura CFO sees more Volatility ahead

By The Commodity Report

  • Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat Goldman Sachs expects a commodities supercycle driven by China and the capital flight from energy markets and investment this month after concerns triggered by the banking sector, the U.S. bank’s head of commodities said.
  • “Historically, when you have this kind of scarring event, it takes months to get capital back … We will still get a deficit by June and it will drive oil prices higher.”
  • Jeff Currie, global head of commodities for Goldman Sachs, told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit on Tuesday.

Hologic Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Post-Pandemic Impact & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on Hologic, Inc., a renowned medical technology giant focused on women’s health.
  • However, Breast Health lost 5.2%, indicating that its recovery from supply chain headwinds caused by chips is in progress.
  • Their Women’s Health molecular diagnostics and cytology basis enable sustainable growth, foster beneficial connections with leading labs and key opinion leaders, and open the door for further innovative products.

Hologic Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Hologic, Inc. is a well-known medical technology giant focused on women’s health.
  • In Diagnostics, they maintained top positions in key product categories for women’s health, like STIs and cervical cancer.
  • Their Women’s Health molecular diagnostics and cytology basis enable sustainable growth, foster beneficial connections with leading labs and key opinion leaders, and open the door for further innovative products.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • C.H.
  • Robinson is a global provider of multimodal transportation and third-party logistics service.
  • Freight demand has deteriorated, negatively impacting the top-line but the contractual truckload AGP per shipment increased, which resulted in some nominal growth in their AGP per truckload shipment.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on C.H.
  • Robinson Worldwide, a well-known provider of multimodal transportation and third-party logistics service.
  • Routing guide depth of tender, a proxy for their entire market, fell from 1.3 in the third quarter to 1.2 in the fourth quarter.

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Mar 28
0

Daily Brief Japan: Nitori Holdings, Cosmo Energy Holdings, Seven & I Holdings, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Potential Changes & Dark Horses
  • Cosmo Energy (5021) – It’s Even More On
  • Seven & I (3382) | New Plan Falls Short
  • Nitori: Low Valuation Multiples and A Strong Potential to an Earnings Beat
  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO Trading – Rakuten Filing Will Add on More Pressure
  • Let Fujitec’s Case Be a Lesson to Companies and Investors in Japan

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Potential Changes & Dark Horses

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends end July. We highlight 3 potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.
  • There are a few alternate adds that are interesting and their inclusion in the index could move things around a fair bit.
  • Due to the large size difference between the potential adds/deletes, there will be a large funding trade with passive trackers needing to sell over 0.5x ADV on many index constituents.

Cosmo Energy (5021) – It’s Even More On

By Travis Lundy

  • In mid-January, things between activist Yoshiaki Murakami and Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) came to a head. Cosmo announced a large buyback and possible takeover defence measures.
  • The buyback was a beefy chunk of the float because of the expected profit payout. On 9 February, Cosmo lowered its NP guidance by 40%. FY22 div stays at ¥150/share.
  • Last Thursday, Cosmo presented its NEW Mid-Term Management Plan. ROE targets similar. Profit targets up. Minimum div goes up; payout ratio goes up. More comes if financial health targets met.

Seven & I (3382) | New Plan Falls Short

By Mark Chadwick

  • Seven & I has revamped its corporate board and announced an updated MTP that improves capital allocation. However…
  • Activist investor ValueAct has turned hostile and is seeking to replace the President and three other directors
  • The stock price has declined by 12% from its year high and we see substantial upside to our intrinsic valuation

Nitori: Low Valuation Multiples and A Strong Potential to an Earnings Beat

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Consensus estimates suggest that Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)‘s gross margin will experience a sudden change affecting profitability for a few quarters, before returning to 6-8% below the long-term trend.
  • We see no apparent reason for a drastic change in Nitori’s profitability and expect it to remain slightly below trend, in line with guidance.
  • Nitori is expected to reach ¥140bn and ¥150bn OP for FY24 and FY25, with valuation at 13.3x and 12.4x OP. This is reasonable given Nitori’s rare history of low multiples.

SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO Trading – Rakuten Filing Will Add on More Pressure

By Sumeet Singh

  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) (SSNB) raised around US$370m in its second listing attempt.
  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank is a Japanese digital bank set up as a 50-50 joint venture between Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Japan’s largest trust bank, and SBI Group.
  • In this note, we talk about the recent updates and trading dynamics.

Let Fujitec’s Case Be a Lesson to Companies and Investors in Japan

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Fujitec’s board composition was above average of Japanese companies in form. This was an opportunity to see an example of a board that is formally structured but not actually functioning.
  • Bringing manager’s buddy on as an “independent director” is not likely to contribute to sustainable growth in corporate value.
  • If domestic institutional investors, including passive funds, vote according to the will of the company, it will lead to stagnation of the substance of corporate governance in Japanese companies.

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Mar 28
0

Daily Brief Consumer: S.M.Entertainment Co, Nitori Holdings, DPC Dash, Patanjali Foods, Seven & I Holdings, United Malt Group Ltd, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Parkson Retail, OPAP SA and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • SM Entertainment: Tender Offer Allocation Ratios Announced
  • Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Potential Changes & Dark Horses
  • DPC Dash IPO Trading – Tepid Demand Even as Capital Group Tops Up
  • Patanjali Foods Early FPO Look – Lifting the Overhang with a Well Flagged Deal. Re-Listing Went Well
  • Seven & I (3382) | New Plan Falls Short
  • Nitori: Low Valuation Multiples and A Strong Potential to an Earnings Beat
  • United Malt (UMG AU): Malteries Soufflet’s Indicative A$5.00 Offer
  • Let Fujitec’s Case Be a Lesson to Companies and Investors in Japan
  • Parkson Retail: Positive 4Q SSS Growth, Overall SSS Growth Still Negative
  • OPAP – FY22 profit and cash returns exceed estimates

SM Entertainment: Tender Offer Allocation Ratios Announced

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Investment & Securities announced the final competition rate for the tender offer of SM Entertainment by Kakao Group (8,333,641 shares of SM Entertainment at 150,000 won per share).
  • The competition ratio of the tender offer was 2.2655436 to 1. Accordingly, the allocation ratio was set at 44.1395170%. 
  • At the current price of 95,100 won, SM Entertainment’s shares are undervalued by about 25% to 45% over the next 6-12 months, in our view. 

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Sep 2023): Potential Changes & Dark Horses

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) September rebalance ends end July. We highlight 3 potential inclusions and exclusions for the index.
  • There are a few alternate adds that are interesting and their inclusion in the index could move things around a fair bit.
  • Due to the large size difference between the potential adds/deletes, there will be a large funding trade with passive trackers needing to sell over 0.5x ADV on many index constituents.

DPC Dash IPO Trading – Tepid Demand Even as Capital Group Tops Up

By Sumeet Singh

  • DPC Dash (1405 HK) raised around US$75m, after pricing its IPO at the bottom-end. 
  • The company is the exclusive master franchisee for Domino’s Pizza in China, HK and Macau. DPC operated 604 stores across 17 cities, as of Feb 2023.
  • In this note, we talk about the subscription levels and trading dynamics.

Patanjali Foods Early FPO Look – Lifting the Overhang with a Well Flagged Deal. Re-Listing Went Well

By Clarence Chu

  • The promoters of Patanjali Foods (PATANJAL IN) are looking to increase the firm’s public shareholding to the minimum required 25% imposed by SEBI.
  • We had discussed about this in their effective re-listing FPO last year, and the deal has been well covered by media sources as well, thus it is very well flagged.
  • While it would be a large one to digest, representing at least 62.1 days of the firm’s three month ADV, the deal will lift the remaining overhang on the stock.

Seven & I (3382) | New Plan Falls Short

By Mark Chadwick

  • Seven & I has revamped its corporate board and announced an updated MTP that improves capital allocation. However…
  • Activist investor ValueAct has turned hostile and is seeking to replace the President and three other directors
  • The stock price has declined by 12% from its year high and we see substantial upside to our intrinsic valuation

Nitori: Low Valuation Multiples and A Strong Potential to an Earnings Beat

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Consensus estimates suggest that Nitori Holdings (9843 JP)‘s gross margin will experience a sudden change affecting profitability for a few quarters, before returning to 6-8% below the long-term trend.
  • We see no apparent reason for a drastic change in Nitori’s profitability and expect it to remain slightly below trend, in line with guidance.
  • Nitori is expected to reach ¥140bn and ¥150bn OP for FY24 and FY25, with valuation at 13.3x and 12.4x OP. This is reasonable given Nitori’s rare history of low multiples.

United Malt (UMG AU): Malteries Soufflet’s Indicative A$5.00 Offer

By Arun George

  • United Malt Group Ltd (UMG AU) has offered exclusive due diligence to Malteries Soufflet for its non-binding indicative proposal of A$5.00 per share, a 45.3% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The offer follows on from three previous undisclosed proposals. The offer is subject to several conditions such as due diligence, Board recommendation and FIRB approval.
  • The presence of several substantial shareholders necessitates an attractive premium. The offer is attractive in comparison to historical share prices and peer multiples. 

Let Fujitec’s Case Be a Lesson to Companies and Investors in Japan

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Fujitec’s board composition was above average of Japanese companies in form. This was an opportunity to see an example of a board that is formally structured but not actually functioning.
  • Bringing manager’s buddy on as an “independent director” is not likely to contribute to sustainable growth in corporate value.
  • If domestic institutional investors, including passive funds, vote according to the will of the company, it will lead to stagnation of the substance of corporate governance in Japanese companies.

Parkson Retail: Positive 4Q SSS Growth, Overall SSS Growth Still Negative

By BOS Research

  • Parkson Retail Group Ltd (Parkson) is a department store operator with 19 years of operating history in China.
  • With an extensive network of 50 stores in 36 cities in China under the “Parkson” brand, the Group is one of the largest store operators.
  • It targets the middle- and mid-upper-end of the Chinese retail market, with most of its revenues derived from concessionaire sales (90% of total revenues), while direct sales account for the rest.

OPAP – FY22 profit and cash returns exceed estimates

By Edison Investment Research

OPAP’s FY22 results benefited from the ongoing retail recovery post COVID, and a still-growing contribution from online (despite the tough comparative) as the company’s enhanced offering attracts growing customer numbers. The higher-than-expected profit, despite relative disappointment about Q422’s revenue due to the FIFA World Cup, reinforces management’s cost control credentials against a background of higher external cost pressures. Management’s guidance for further profit growth in FY23 and an undergeared balance sheet should be supportive of high cash returns.

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Mar 28
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Meituan, WCP, Indosat Tbk PT, Tencent, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, MSCI Emerging Markets Index, Xiaomi Corp, NFT and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Meituan (3690 HK): All Stock in CCASS Now; Tracking the Selling
  • W-Scope IPO Lock-Up – US$300m Worth of Shares to Come Free
  • Tencent Meituan Dividend – All Shares in CCASS – More Pressure Now but Will Have a Shorter Overhang
  • [Meituan (3690 HK) Target Price Change]: Bracing for Douyin Impact with Limited War Chest
  • Indosat (ISAT IJ) – The Telco Changeling
  • Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Bullish Multi-Month Outlook – Target 450+ (+20-25%)
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings to Provide Memory Outlook; Taiwan Vs. SOX Divergence
  • MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support — Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight
  • [Xiaomi Inc. (1810 HK) Target Price Change]: Picking Both Earnings and Scale, but Obtaining Neither
  • Athlete-Direct-to-Fan: The Future or FAD?

Meituan (3690 HK): All Stock in CCASS Now; Tracking the Selling

By Brian Freitas

W-Scope IPO Lock-Up – US$300m Worth of Shares to Come Free

By Sumeet Singh

  • WCP (393890 KS) raised around US$314m via in its Korean IPO. The stock was listed on 30th Sep 2022, its six-month lockup will expire soon.
  • WCP designs, manufactures, and sells separators, which are one of the four core materials for secondary Lithium-ion batteries.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Tencent Meituan Dividend – All Shares in CCASS – More Pressure Now but Will Have a Shorter Overhang

By Sumeet Singh

  • On 16th Nov 22, post-market close, along with its 3Q22 results Tencent declared an interim dividend by way of distribution in specie of Class B Ordinary shares of Meituan.
  • At the time of declaration, the dividend amounted to US$20bn or 15.5% of Meituan’s outstanding shares.
  • We have spoken about the background of the deal in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the overnight updates.

[Meituan (3690 HK) Target Price Change]: Bracing for Douyin Impact with Limited War Chest

By Shawn Yang

  • Meituan reported C4Q22 total revenue 4% higher than cons. Non-IFRS net margin beat cons. by 0.4ppt due to strong cost control during lockdowns.  
  • Meituan has limited options against Douyin’s fast expansion of new service categories and customized offerings. The competition against Douyin will continue to pressure the in-store business in the long run.
  • Maintain SELL and cut TP to HK$125. Our TP implies 3x PS, 10x PE and 1x PS for on-demand delivery, in-store, and new initiatives, respectively.

Indosat (ISAT IJ) – The Telco Changeling

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Indosat (ISAT IJ) has come back from being the loss-making underdog amongst the Indonesian telcos and is now well and truly on the rebound, with significant potential upside.
  • The acquisition of Hutchison’s “3” has propelled the company into the number two spot in terms of market share and enabled better quality coverage after a well-orchestrated merger. 
  • Indosat now has a 4G footprint in Java greater than Telkomsel and with significant potential to gain share ex-Java, which provides higher returns. Valuations remain attractive. 

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Bullish Multi-Month Outlook – Target 450+ (+20-25%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Last week complemented November 2022’s  bullish LT confirmation with a bullish MT confirmation, re-instating the MT uptrend after a period of correction in Feb/Mar.
  • Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) has likely entered the 2nd leg of a material MT uptrend. Q2 2023 target towards 451.95 (+25%).

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings to Provide Memory Outlook; Taiwan Vs. SOX Divergence

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Micron earnings this week, will provide insight on the outlook for the memory chip space.
  • The Taiwanese market has substantially lagged the surge in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
  • Chinese firms are trying to poach engineers from TSMC and UMC by offering 2-3x their salaries.

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support — Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

By Joe Jasper

  • In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
  • The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
  • The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).

[Xiaomi Inc. (1810 HK) Target Price Change]: Picking Both Earnings and Scale, but Obtaining Neither

By Shawn Yang

  • Xiaomi reported C4Q22 top-line, non-IFRS EBIT and non-IFRS net income in-line, 14%, and 25% vs. our est., and in-line, 78%, and 26% vs. consensus; 
  • Beginning in 2023,  we expect it will be forced to sacrifice for or the other given its lack of moat in any category; 
  • Xiaomi will likely improve phone gross margins due to declining IC prices, RMB appreciation, underlying our TP raise to HK$8.2, but we maintain SELL.  

Athlete-Direct-to-Fan: The Future or FAD?

By Sporting Crypto

  • The way fans interact with sports has changed an incredible amount over the past 20 years.
  • We’ve seen broadcasting, social media, streaming and such all impact the way fans consume the sports they love.
  • The future of fan engagement is always a hot topic because things are always changing, of course.

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Mar 28
0

Daily Brief Financials: Credit Suisse, Nasdaq-100 Stock Index, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Home First Finance, Yuzhou Group, Ping An Insurance (H), Alam Sutera Realty, Binance Coin, Shui On Land, Yanlord Land and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 23: Credit Suisse, Vantage Towers, and 3 Regular Changes
  • NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias
  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO Trading – Rakuten Filing Will Add on More Pressure
  • Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) | The Bounce Mystery & Way Forward
  • Yuzhou: Strong FY Results and Robust Liquidity Profile
  • Ping An: Reassuring New Business Pickup
  • Alam Sutera: Weak Results, with Declining Margins and Credit Deterioration
  • Binance Volume Plummets After End of Zero-Fee Trading
  • Shui On Land – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Yankuang Energy Group, Yanlord Land

Quiddity Leaderboard SE600 Jun 23: Credit Suisse, Vantage Towers, and 3 Regular Changes

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the STX Europe 600 and EUROSTX Indices for the March 2023 Rebalance.
  • STX Europe 600 members Credit Suisse (CSGN SW) and Vantage Towers (VTWR GR) could possibly get deleted in the next few months triggering intra-review ADDs.
  • Separately, I see 3 more ADDs and DELs for the STX Europe 600 index in the regular review in June 2023.

NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Q1 2023 has confirmed that the material 2022 downward correction is likely complete. Subsequently, after a period of correction, the resumption of the Q4/Q1 uptrend was confirmed.
  • Bullish price triggers combine with positive MT/LT momentum triggers to initially target 13740. A break above 13740 is increasingly likely and would present a far more bullish MT outlook.

SBI Sumishin Net Bank IPO Trading – Rakuten Filing Will Add on More Pressure

By Sumeet Singh

  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP) (SSNB) raised around US$370m in its second listing attempt.
  • SBI Sumishin Net Bank is a Japanese digital bank set up as a 50-50 joint venture between Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank, Japan’s largest trust bank, and SBI Group.
  • In this note, we talk about the recent updates and trading dynamics.

Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) | The Bounce Mystery & Way Forward

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Home First Finance (HOMEFIRS IN) lends to a customer segment exposed to high income volatility.
  • Soft bounces are used by customers to manage their cash flow, with bounce charge collection done on a best-effort basis, management attitude towards financial discipline warrants attention. 
  • While there may not be any immediate asset quality issues, caution is warranted. 

Yuzhou: Strong FY Results and Robust Liquidity Profile

By BOS Research

  • Yuzhou Properties Company Limited (Yuzhou) is a property developer that focuses on residential housing in West Strait Economic Zone and Yangtze River Delta.
  • The company has moved its headquarters to Shanghai from Xiamen.
  • The company has been listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since November 2009. As of 31 Mar 2017, market capitalization of Yuzhou stands at HKD12.4b (USD1.6b).

Ping An: Reassuring New Business Pickup

By BOS Research

  • Interim results beat with strong results across most business lines
  • Life insurance new business value growth reversed to positive growth in 2Q and should accelerate
  • Fair value trimmed to HKD98 but headwinds abating in 2H

Alam Sutera: Weak Results, with Declining Margins and Credit Deterioration

By BOS Research

  • Established in 1993, PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (Alam Sutera) is a small Indonesian property developer, focused on the development and management of large-scale townships of residential and commercial property.
  • As of FY16, the company held total land bank of 1,898 hectares in gross area.
  • Key source of earnings remain property development sales, with recurring income limited and derived from leases in its shopping malls.

Binance Volume Plummets After End of Zero-Fee Trading

By Kaiko

  • On March 22, Binance halted its no-fee trading promotion for 13 BTC spot trading pairs, reversing a move that helped boost the exchange’s market share by more than 20% relative to its competitors.
  • The exchange also announced that it would be eliminating trading fees for the BTC-TUSD pair, which was mothballed in September and only recently re-listed.
  • It is unclear why Binance has chosen to promote its TUSD pair, although it appears the exchange has selected the stablecoin as a successor to BUSD, which is being phased out because of regulatory actions in the U.S. 

Shui On Land – Earnings Flash – FY 2022 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Shui On Land’s FY 2022 results were acceptable, supported by reasonable contracted sales, along with a strong revenue recovery in H2 (following a poor H1, when revenue recognition was impacted by pandemic-related lockdowns in Shanghai). Going forward, we believe contracted sales could decrease meaningfully in FY 2023, owing to the thin sales pipeline and reduced land bank size. That said, revenue recognition might continue to rise on the back of past robust sales.

Negatively, the company’s financial profile weakened slightly, with net debt rising more than expected. Still, we believe that Shui On’s liquidity profile remains manageable and expect the company to repay the USD 500 mn SHUION 5.75 23 (due November) using cash on hand.

Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield, Yankuang Energy Group, Yanlord Land

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Mar 28
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Cosmo Energy Holdings, Origin Energy, Aag Energy Holdings, Liontown Resources, TMC the metals co, Pan American Silver, Gold and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Cosmo Energy (5021) – It’s Even More On
  • Origin Energy (ORG AU): Brookfield/EIG Binding Offer; ACCC Approval the Key Risk
  • AAG Energy (2686 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied as Doubts Sets In
  • Origin Energy And Brookfield/MidOcean Enter Into Scheme Deed
  • Liontown Resources (LTR AU) Turns Down Albemarle’s A$2.5/Share Offer
  • Building Momentum into the Final Stretch; Turnkey Tolled Processing with PAMCO
  • Pan American Silver – Yamana transaction fully approved
  • Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat // Trafigura CFO sees more Volatility ahead

Cosmo Energy (5021) – It’s Even More On

By Travis Lundy

  • In mid-January, things between activist Yoshiaki Murakami and Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) came to a head. Cosmo announced a large buyback and possible takeover defence measures.
  • The buyback was a beefy chunk of the float because of the expected profit payout. On 9 February, Cosmo lowered its NP guidance by 40%. FY22 div stays at ¥150/share.
  • Last Thursday, Cosmo presented its NEW Mid-Term Management Plan. ROE targets similar. Profit targets up. Minimum div goes up; payout ratio goes up. More comes if financial health targets met.

Origin Energy (ORG AU): Brookfield/EIG Binding Offer; ACCC Approval the Key Risk

By Arun George

  • Origin Energy (ORG AU) has entered into a binding proposal with Brookfield/EIG. The offer terms are changed to A$5.78 and US$2.19 per share. The offer is worth A$8.912 excluding dividends.
  • Since the announcement of the first indicative offer on 10 November 2022, the average implied value of the revised offer is A$8.97 per share vs A$9.00 for the previous offer.
  • ACCC approval will be the key overhang and is expected to take around six months. At the last close, the gross spread to the offer is 9.1%.

AAG Energy (2686 HK): Pre-Condition Satisfied as Doubts Sets In

By Arun George

  • Aag Energy Holdings (2686 HK) noted that the pre-condition for Xinjiang Xintai Natural Gas (603393 CH) privatisation offer at HK$1.85 per share has been satisfied (which was expected). 
  • The gross spread has widened to 16.4% due to concerns that the recent solid FY22 results, lack of dividends and the skinny premium would nudge minorities to vote NO.
  • It remains unclear if the dissatisfied retail minorities have enough votes to block the scheme. The downside remains low as the shares are trading 5% below the undisturbed price. 

Origin Energy And Brookfield/MidOcean Enter Into Scheme Deed

By David Blennerhassett

  • In the wake of the Aussie government’s gas price intervention, the Brookfield/MidOcean consortium reduced its Offer for Origin Energy (ORG AU) to ~A$8.90/share, down from A$9.00/share, on the 22 Feb. 
  • At the time, Origin appeared supportive.  Origin and Brookfield/MidOcean have now entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed.
  • Some subtle – and more favourable to all investors – changes have been made to terms. Pricing is attractive. ACCC is the big question mark.

Liontown Resources (LTR AU) Turns Down Albemarle’s A$2.5/Share Offer

By Brian Freitas

Building Momentum into the Final Stretch; Turnkey Tolled Processing with PAMCO

By Water Tower Research

  • Pilot costs drive higher losses. TMC reported 4Q22 results that included a net loss of $109.6 million, compared with a net loss of $19.6 million in 4Q21.
  • Higher Y/Y losses were driven largely by the $70 million fair value of the Allseas warrant exercisable post successful collection test, valued at $7 per share based on the grant date of March 2021, partially offset by lower G&A expenses.
  • TMC ended 2022 with $46.8 million in cash, which along with the $25 million unsecured credit facility, management believes will be sufficient to meet its WC and capex needs through 1Q24.

Pan American Silver – Yamana transaction fully approved

By Edison Investment Research

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has reported that the Mexican Federal Economic Competition Commission approved the company’s plan of arrangement with Yamana and Agnico Eagle. This is the final regulatory approval that paves the way for the completion of the transaction, which is guided to occur by end March, in line with management’s expectations. In other news, PAAS recommended a Q123 cash dividend of US$0.10 per share, implying a 2.2% yield on an annualised basis.

Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat // Trafigura CFO sees more Volatility ahead

By The Commodity Report

  • Goldman Sachs jumps back into the supercycle boat Goldman Sachs expects a commodities supercycle driven by China and the capital flight from energy markets and investment this month after concerns triggered by the banking sector, the U.S. bank’s head of commodities said.
  • “Historically, when you have this kind of scarring event, it takes months to get capital back … We will still get a deficit by June and it will drive oil prices higher.”
  • Jeff Currie, global head of commodities for Goldman Sachs, told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit on Tuesday.

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Mar 28
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Sun Kwang, Golden Energy & Resources, Sembcorp Marine, CK Hutchison Holdings, PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Equifax Inc, Carr’s Group PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Target & Timing for Flow Trading Position Setup in NICE I&S KOSPI Transfer Event
  • Golden Energy (GER SP): DSS Vote on 2 May; Appraiser Unconvincingly States that Offer Is Fair
  • Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: Sembcorp Marine Addition Could Finally Happen
  • CK Hutchison Holdings: Is a Retail IPO Coming?
  • WIKA: Decent 1H18
  • Equifax Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • Equifax Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Carr’s Group – Details of FY22 performance

Target & Timing for Flow Trading Position Setup in NICE I&S KOSPI Transfer Event

By Sanghyun Park

  • NICE I&S will likely complete the transfer schedule in early May, meaning that an ad-hoc change may occur before the regular rebalancing of the KOSDAQ 150 in June.
  • If this gets completed before SK Oceanplant’s transfer listing schedule, the top reserved issue in NICE’s GICS sector (INDUSTRIALS) will be included. It is Sun Kwang (003100 KS).
  • As evidenced in the case of LX Semicon, we should set up a preemptive position for potential ADDITION at the time of the T or T-1 KRX corporate action announcement.

Golden Energy (GER SP): DSS Vote on 2 May; Appraiser Unconvincingly States that Offer Is Fair

By Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: Sembcorp Marine Addition Could Finally Happen

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for Singapore’s ST index (“STI”) between now and the September 2023 index review.
  • In my previous insight (link), I mentioned Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) could miss out on being added to the STI in March 2023 and that happened to be true.
  • However, based on the current data, Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) could finally be added to the STI in September 2023.

CK Hutchison Holdings: Is a Retail IPO Coming?

By BOS Research

  • In-depth presentation of retail digitalization raises expectation of retail spin-off. Asset disposals and increased DPS potential 2H catalysts
  • Limited impact from trade tensions; oil tailwind
  • Following 2 years of single-digit earnings growth, growth is likely to accelerate to double digit as headwinds from strong euro/GBP and weak oil prices eases and global economy continues to rebound.

WIKA: Decent 1H18

By BOS Research

  • Net profit up 19% YoY on strong revenue growth. New order flow remains decent.
  • Maintain IDR 2,300 TP, valuations look attractive
  • With a diversified portfolio of private construction and public infrastructure projects, WIKA offers broad exposure to Indonesia’s infrastructure investment growth

Equifax Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on the multinational consumer credit reporting player, Equifax.
  • Their global non-mortgage businesses performed exceptionally well, with constant currency revenue growth of 12% and constant organic currency revenue growth of 10%.
  • Equifax further announced the acquisition of the Food Industry Credit Bureau.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • C.H.
  • Robinson is a global provider of multimodal transportation and third-party logistics service.
  • Freight demand has deteriorated, negatively impacting the top-line but the contractual truckload AGP per shipment increased, which resulted in some nominal growth in their AGP per truckload shipment.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on C.H.
  • Robinson Worldwide, a well-known provider of multimodal transportation and third-party logistics service.
  • Routing guide depth of tender, a proxy for their entire market, fell from 1.3 in the third quarter to 1.2 in the fourth quarter.

Equifax Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Equifax is one of the largest consumer credit reporting companies in the U.S.
  • It has strong financial fundamentals which are helping it thrive in the turbulent business environment that includes an unprecedented decline in the mortgage market.
  • Their global non-mortgage businesses has been performing well and is fueled by Workforce Solutions’ remarkable performance.

Carr’s Group – Details of FY22 performance

By Edison Investment Research

Carr’s Group has released its audited results for FY22, having previously issued a detailed trading update in February giving preliminary financial metrics on FY22 performance. The shares were suspended from trading in January because of delays in publishing these results. The company has applied for them to be restored to trading.

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Mar 28
0

Daily Brief ESG: Let Fujitec’s Case Be a Lesson to Companies and Investors in Japan and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Let Fujitec’s Case Be a Lesson to Companies and Investors in Japan

Let Fujitec’s Case Be a Lesson to Companies and Investors in Japan

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Fujitec’s board composition was above average of Japanese companies in form. This was an opportunity to see an example of a board that is formally structured but not actually functioning.
  • Bringing manager’s buddy on as an “independent director” is not likely to contribute to sustainable growth in corporate value.
  • If domestic institutional investors, including passive funds, vote according to the will of the company, it will lead to stagnation of the substance of corporate governance in Japanese companies.

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Mar 28
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Sun Kwang, Golden Energy & Resources, Sembcorp Marine, CK Hutchison Holdings, PT Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Equifax Inc, Carr’s Group PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Target & Timing for Flow Trading Position Setup in NICE I&S KOSPI Transfer Event
  • Golden Energy (GER SP): DSS Vote on 2 May; Appraiser Unconvincingly States that Offer Is Fair
  • Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: Sembcorp Marine Addition Could Finally Happen
  • CK Hutchison Holdings: Is a Retail IPO Coming?
  • WIKA: Decent 1H18
  • Equifax Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers
  • Equifax Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Carr’s Group – Details of FY22 performance

Target & Timing for Flow Trading Position Setup in NICE I&S KOSPI Transfer Event

By Sanghyun Park

  • NICE I&S will likely complete the transfer schedule in early May, meaning that an ad-hoc change may occur before the regular rebalancing of the KOSDAQ 150 in June.
  • If this gets completed before SK Oceanplant’s transfer listing schedule, the top reserved issue in NICE’s GICS sector (INDUSTRIALS) will be included. It is Sun Kwang (003100 KS).
  • As evidenced in the case of LX Semicon, we should set up a preemptive position for potential ADDITION at the time of the T or T-1 KRX corporate action announcement.

Golden Energy (GER SP): DSS Vote on 2 May; Appraiser Unconvincingly States that Offer Is Fair

By Arun George

Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: Sembcorp Marine Addition Could Finally Happen

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for Singapore’s ST index (“STI”) between now and the September 2023 index review.
  • In my previous insight (link), I mentioned Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) could miss out on being added to the STI in March 2023 and that happened to be true.
  • However, based on the current data, Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) could finally be added to the STI in September 2023.

CK Hutchison Holdings: Is a Retail IPO Coming?

By BOS Research

  • In-depth presentation of retail digitalization raises expectation of retail spin-off. Asset disposals and increased DPS potential 2H catalysts
  • Limited impact from trade tensions; oil tailwind
  • Following 2 years of single-digit earnings growth, growth is likely to accelerate to double digit as headwinds from strong euro/GBP and weak oil prices eases and global economy continues to rebound.

WIKA: Decent 1H18

By BOS Research

  • Net profit up 19% YoY on strong revenue growth. New order flow remains decent.
  • Maintain IDR 2,300 TP, valuations look attractive
  • With a diversified portfolio of private construction and public infrastructure projects, WIKA offers broad exposure to Indonesia’s infrastructure investment growth

Equifax Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on the multinational consumer credit reporting player, Equifax.
  • Their global non-mortgage businesses performed exceptionally well, with constant currency revenue growth of 12% and constant organic currency revenue growth of 10%.
  • Equifax further announced the acquisition of the Food Industry Credit Bureau.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • C.H.
  • Robinson is a global provider of multimodal transportation and third-party logistics service.
  • Freight demand has deteriorated, negatively impacting the top-line but the contractual truckload AGP per shipment increased, which resulted in some nominal growth in their AGP per truckload shipment.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on C.H.
  • Robinson Worldwide, a well-known provider of multimodal transportation and third-party logistics service.
  • Routing guide depth of tender, a proxy for their entire market, fell from 1.3 in the third quarter to 1.2 in the fourth quarter.

Equifax Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Equifax is one of the largest consumer credit reporting companies in the U.S.
  • It has strong financial fundamentals which are helping it thrive in the turbulent business environment that includes an unprecedented decline in the mortgage market.
  • Their global non-mortgage businesses has been performing well and is fueled by Workforce Solutions’ remarkable performance.

Carr’s Group – Details of FY22 performance

By Edison Investment Research

Carr’s Group has released its audited results for FY22, having previously issued a detailed trading update in February giving preliminary financial metrics on FY22 performance. The shares were suspended from trading in January because of delays in publishing these results. The company has applied for them to be restored to trading.

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  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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