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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

By Joe Jasper

  • Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&P 500.
  • The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).
  • The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Myth-Busting: The Economy Drives the Stock Market and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Myth-Busting: The Economy Drives the Stock Market

Myth-Busting: The Economy Drives the Stock Market

By Nicolas Rabener

  • US real GDP growth and US stock market returns were positively correlated since 1900
  • However, the correlation was not consistent and even turned negative
  • The evidence of this relationship from other countries is mixed

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Daily Brief Credit: Vulcan Materials Company: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Vulcan Materials Company: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Morning Views Asia: Sino-Ocean Service, Vedanta Resources
  • Generac Holdings Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • DISH Network Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • FMC Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • O’Reilly Automotive Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Parker-Hannifin Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • Rockwell Automation Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report
  • WestRock Company: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Vulcan Materials Company: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Vulcan Materials Company is a well-known producer, distributor, and seller of construction materials.
  • The company did continue its reliable cash generation and careful capital deployment and its free cash flow conversion has been above 90% on average over the last four years.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Discovery is a major global media company that is going through a turbulent phase.
  • In terms of direct-to-consumer, they are successfully moving towards their objective of realizing profitability in streaming, a significant and potent part of their business.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

Morning Views Asia: Sino-Ocean Service, Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Generac Holdings Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Generac Holdings is a major energy technology player with a reasonable amount of debt on its balance sheet and showing ongoing growth in its commercial and industrial product categories.
  • Its weaker residential product sales have been a point of concern for the management.
  • Sales of C&I products have climbed significantly, with strong core sales growth across all domestic channels and all overseas areas.

DISH Network Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • DISH Network Corporation is a leading provider of television entertainment and technology.
  • DISH’s wireless and broadband networks, as well as DISH and Sling services, are still up and running and functioning regularly.
  • DISH Network further launched Samsung-supported sites for the DISH Wireless 5G network, kicking off Samsung’s participation in the operator’s nationwide rollout.

FMC Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • FMC Corporation is a major agricultural sciences player in the U.S.
  • The company has been witnessing high volume growth and its aggressive pricing has helped build a strong financial position.
  • Agricultural markets remain strong with high commodity prices, expanding cropland, and optimistic grower sentiment.

O’Reilly Automotive Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • O’Reilly Automotive, Inc is one of the largest retailers of automobile aftermarket parts in the U.S.
  • The company has consistently reported strong sales volumes and the management claims that the core fundamental demand drivers are still strong, which supports the health of the automotive aftermarket.
  • DIY and professional businesses have showed strength across 2022 and their high average ticket increase contributed to the improved performance in their DIY division, which accelerated on a 1, 2, and 3-year comparable store sales growth basis.

Parker-Hannifin Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Parker-Hannifin Corporation is among the market leader in motion and control technologies across the globe.
  • Parker-Hannifin has also benefited from a positive net impact of the aircraft Wheel and Brake sale and the Meggitt acquisition.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

Rockwell Automation Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Rockwell Automation is a major provider of digital transformation and industrial automation solutions across the world.
  • Its backlog orders continue to increased sequentially with order cancellation rates staying in the low single digits as per recent results.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

WestRock Company: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • WestRock Company is one of the largest providers of fiber-based paper and packaging solutions across the globe.
  • The company has been on the receiving end of strong economic volatility and this has affected its financial performance in 2022.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different credit strengths and credit risks of the company as well as a line-by-line analysis of the financial statements of the company for the past four years.

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Daily Brief ECM: Harita Nickel IPO: Valuation Insights and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Harita Nickel IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Generac Holdings Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Acquisition-Led Growth & Innovation
  • Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Still Running Strong
  • O’Reilly Automotive Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

Harita Nickel IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Generac Holdings Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Acquisition-Led Growth & Innovation

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on a renowned energy technology player, Generac Holdings.
  • Sales of C&I products climbed significantly, with strong core sales growth across all domestic channels and all overseas areas.
  • We initiate coverage on the stock of Generac Holdings Inc. with a ‘Hold’ rating.

Growatt Technology Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Still Running Strong

By Ethan Aw

  • Growatt Technology (1833969D CH) is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Growatt Technology is a global distributed energy solution provider, specializing in sustainable energy generation, storage and consumption, as well as energy digitalization. 
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance, peer comparison and shared our thoughts on valuation. In this note, we will talk about its refiling updates.

O’Reilly Automotive Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on O’Reilly Automotive, Inc., one of the largest retailers of automobile aftermarket parts in the U.S.
  • O’Reilly Automotive had a great last quarter and ended 2022 with an all-around beat.
  • The company reported strong sales volumes and the management claims that the core fundamental demand drivers are still strong, which supports the health of the automotive aftermarket.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): AMD Versus Intel. Spot The Differences? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • AMD Versus Intel. Spot The Differences?
  • Good Morning Japan |SPX Reclaims 4000! NUGGET: Asahi Kasei-M&A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain
  • Japan Healthcare: Currency Benefit Seems to Be Fading; Focus Will Be on Underlying Business Strength
  • Discount Drugstores Challenging Japanese Supermarkets
  • MQG – Funding Squeeze?
  • Banks Vs. Market: A Closer Look at Equity Risk Premia and Other Valuation Measures
  • China TMT Update(Mar.22): 700HK/NTES/BILI/IQ/3659.JP /BGNE/9995HK/ZLAB – Foreign Game Codes(+)

AMD Versus Intel. Spot The Differences?

By William Keating

  • AMD Q4 2022 revenues amounted to $5.6 billion, $100 million above the midpoint of the guided range, flat sequentially but an increase of 16% YoY. 
  • Intel Q4 2022 revenue amounted to $14 billion, at the very bottom of the guided range down 8% sequentially and down 28% YoY.
  • Facing the same macro headwinds, AMD significantly outperformed Intel across a wide range of key metrics in 2022

Good Morning Japan |SPX Reclaims 4000! NUGGET: Asahi Kasei-M&A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX reclaims 4000 level with 2nd day of gains; 8/11 SPX sectors up as VIX collapses; Fed Decision Day on Wed-Expect No surprises; INTEL headwinds on China curbs
  • JAPAN.  NKY Futs +0.6% vs Cash; USDJPY 132. 4; Japan set to rally after the Spring  transition break;US accepts Japan’s EV subsidy appeal=+ve auto parts; More inflation support from govt.
  • NUGGET. Asahi Kasai – M&A Gone Bad, Writedown, Struggles Remain. Future profitability of the LiB Separator business in question.

Japan Healthcare: Currency Benefit Seems to Be Fading; Focus Will Be on Underlying Business Strength

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 2022, JPY depreciated against USD to the lowest level in more than 30 years. This benefitted healthcare companies in Japan, which earn significant portion of revenues from the U.S.
  • This year, Yen has started reversing its course and began to strengthen. With benefit of favorable Forex gradually fading, investors need to be selective in picking healthcare bets in Japan.
  • We have discussed about five top picks from Japan healthcare sector. Domestic focused business, favorable industry tailwinds, and COVID recovery are the main investment thesis for the top picks.

Discount Drugstores Challenging Japanese Supermarkets

By Michael Causton

  • Drugstores were already the fastest growing format before Covid and the health scare only improved their performance further.
  • Several of the largest chains are now powerful players in food, using their non-food base to shake up the supermarket sector in ways that Japan has never seen before.
  • Being price-led, inflation is only helping them along, with a much greater capacity to hold down prices than mainstream supermarkets.

MQG – Funding Squeeze?

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Funding squeeze evident in HK’s HIBOR market and reported in Australia too
  • Even where not visible, this must be expected globally, as banks reign in risk
  • MQG has low levels of deposits and high levels of securities

Banks Vs. Market: A Closer Look at Equity Risk Premia and Other Valuation Measures

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Unsurprisingly, the (required) equity risk premium on bank stocks has increased, but especially in the case of US banks, it is not at extreme levels. 
  • The forward P/E ratio of European bank stocks has dropped to distressed/recessionary levels, while the forward P/E of US bank stocks is ‘seriously low’ at 8.
  • However, based on the Price-to-Book ratio, bank valuation is average.  Given elevated contagion risks and increased regulatory scrutiny, bank stock valuation alone is insufficient to overweight the sector.

China TMT Update(Mar.22): 700HK/NTES/BILI/IQ/3659.JP /BGNE/9995HK/ZLAB – Foreign Game Codes(+)

By Shawn Yang

  • 700HK/NTES/BILI/IQ/3659.JP: The latest Foreign game codes released by NPPA, positive to gaming companies(+)
  • BGNE/9995HK:Daiichi and Zymeworks end antibody pact after seven years (-)
  • ZLAB:ZaiLab’s partner Karua’s Schizophrenia drug obtained positive Phase 3 data (+)

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: The BIG March 2023 “Wednesday Thursday Trade” and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • The BIG March 2023 “Wednesday Thursday Trade”
  • S.M. Entertainment: Proration Musings
  • S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June
  • Mincor Resources (MCR AU): Wyloo’s A$1.40 Unconditional Takeover Offer
  • Quiddity Leaderboard-​​​​​​​​​​​ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes
  • Mincor: Twiggy’s On-Market Takeover
  • India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023)
  • Oak Holdings/​Vantage Towers: Delisting Agreement
  • Onewo Space-Tech IPO Lock-Up – Company, Parent and Cornerstones Could Eventually Sell

The BIG March 2023 “Wednesday Thursday Trade”

By Travis Lundy

  • Every year it’s the same trade. But it isn’t really. But it kinda is. This year it is Wednesday and Thursday. There are risks to the analysis – notably allocation.
  • But, ceteris paribus, it is still possibly a ¥1,580,876,450,407 buying spree to take place on one day into the close later this month. Or something close to it.
  • And for a two-day period, over the last ten years, the average return is 1.60% on these two days with a 9:1 win ratio. Lots of angles here.

S.M. Entertainment: Proration Musings

By David Blennerhassett

  • After HYBE (352820 KS) conceded to Kakao Corp (035720 KS) earlier this month, S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)‘s shares have declined 23%. 
  • Kakao’s Partial Offer of  ₩150,000/share closes on the 26 March. 
  • Unadjusted proration is 36.8%, conservatively rising to 48.5%. It may settle at 61% if HYBE maintains its position – but that is probably a tad optimistic. 

S&P/​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Changes from Now to June

By Brian Freitas


Mincor Resources (MCR AU): Wyloo’s A$1.40 Unconditional Takeover Offer

By Arun George

  • Wyloo has launched an unconditional off-market takeover bid for Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU) at A$1.40 per share, a 34.6% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer opens 5 April.
  • In certain aspects the offer is attractive. The offer values Mincor at a premium to peer and precedent transaction EV/Resource and EV/Reserve multiples.
  • However, the offer is at a discount to recent share prices and price targets. Rival bidders (BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) or IGO Ltd (IGO AU)) could also emerge. 

Quiddity Leaderboard-​​​​​​​​​​​ASX Jun 23: OZ Minerals Replacements and Other Changes

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run up to the June 2023 Rebalance.
  • OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) upcoming deletion in April 2023 could cause a couple of intra-review replacements.
  • Separately, there could be one more change in the ASX 200 index in the June 2023 review.

Mincor: Twiggy’s On-Market Takeover

By David Blennerhassett

  • Nickel explorer Mincor Resources NL (MCR AU)‘s board urges shareholders to take no action in response to the on-market takeover from Andrew Forrest’s backed Wyloo Metals.
  • Wyloo is offering A$1.40/share. The offer period commences on the 5 April and runs until the 8 May – unless extended. However, Wyloo’s broker is already standing in the market. 
  • Wyloo, together with associates, control 19.87% of the voting power in Mincor. Currently trading 5.7% through terms

India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (June 2023)

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearly halfway through the review period, we see 10 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and vice versa, and 9 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap and vice versa.
  • Financials are poised to be the biggest gainers in the reshuffle with 6 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap and 5 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap.
  • Over the last 6 months, stocks expected to migrate upward have outperformed stocks that are expected to migrate downward., though there has been a downward drift this year.

Oak Holdings/​Vantage Towers: Delisting Agreement

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Vantage Towers and Oak Holdings have concluded a delisting agreement after all takeover conditions were met. Oak Holdings intends to offer a cash consideration of €32/share to holdouts.
  • The stock is trading 4.25% above the delisting offer price, thus it seems difficult that a lot more shares will be tendered.
  • Elliot has a 5.61% stake in Vantage Towers, enough to prevent a squeeze-out and can exert pressure to obtain the DPLTA to include favorable terms (higher interest).

Onewo Space-Tech IPO Lock-Up – Company, Parent and Cornerstones Could Eventually Sell

By Sumeet Singh

  • Onewo (2602 HK) (OST) had raised around US$730m in its Hong Kong IPO in Sep 2022. Its six-month lockup is set to expire soon.
  • OST is a property management service provider in China, primarily owned by China Vanke (H) (2202 HK)
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: 1373 HK: Value Play 8x PE and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • 1373 HK: Value Play 8x PE, Dividend Yield ~10%, 20% of Mkt Cap in Cash
  • Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP): Deep in Debt, Slipping Margins, Rising Rates – Perfect Storm?
  • Mitsubishi Motors (7211) | Modelling the Mid Term Plan
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia’s Latest Strategy Unveil Tonight; AUO Says PC Panel Demand Normalizing
  • Pinduoduo: Cost Cutting Wearing Out, Margins Heading Towards Our Steady State Target of 6-7%
  • Korea Kolmar: When Will People in Korea Stop Wearing Masks?
  • GoTo: Ambitious Profit Target to Further Stall Growth
  • Shortlist of High Conviction Ideas – Income, Value, Margin of Safety
  • Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU): It’s Not Too Late to Join the Bandwagon; More Stream Is Still Left
  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – 2022 Results Missed Expectations, but the Outlook Remains Positive

1373 HK: Value Play 8x PE, Dividend Yield ~10%, 20% of Mkt Cap in Cash

By Sameer Taneja

  • International Housewares Retail (1373 HK) is an interesting value/growth (5-10% CAGR) play with a high-dividend yield of >10%, trading at 8.1x FY23 PE. 
  • The claim to fame for this company is the investment of legendary HK mid/small cap investor David Webb (who has a 6.9% stake in this company). 
  • At a market cap of 2 bn HKD, the company has about 400 mn HKD net cash (20% of market cap), making it 6.9x ex-cash PE.

Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP): Deep in Debt, Slipping Margins, Rising Rates – Perfect Storm?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Del Monte Pacific reported a steep decline in profits led by a fall in gross margins and a steep rise in interest costs for the quarter ending 31st Jan 2023.
  • The company’s gearing has risen to 5.8x led by (1) the refinancing of preference shares and expensive debt (2) acquisition of the Kitchen basics brand (3) increased working capital loan.  
  • Del Monte’s precariously bloated debt levels and tighter operating conditions, given inflation-led cost pressures and moderating demand, in the current high-interest rate environment heightens the company’s financial risk.

Mitsubishi Motors (7211) | Modelling the Mid Term Plan

By Mark Chadwick

  • The stock is down sharply over the past few weeks as investors price in higher interest rates and weaker spending on durables
  • Mitsubishi recently unveiled its mid-term plan and further details on its electrification strategy
  • If management can hit its targets, the stock would have significant upside. We have our doubts

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Nvidia’s Latest Strategy Unveil Tonight; AUO Says PC Panel Demand Normalizing

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Nvidia CEO to unveil new developments at the company’s GTC developer conference tonight Asia time. TSMC and ASML could have read-throughs from the event given their key roles.
  • AUO’s chairman said that he expects PC panel demand to return to normal levels later this year; indicating another sign of potential improvement in the PC and display space.
  • PC maker Asustek was a top loser in the past week; we highlight it as a potential Long/Short opportunity.

Pinduoduo: Cost Cutting Wearing Out, Margins Heading Towards Our Steady State Target of 6-7%

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • With the impact of cost-cutting and monetisation wearing out, consensus looks overly aggressive to expect revenue and OP CAGRs of 24% and 35% respectively over the next two years.
  • Based on Pinduoduo (PDD US)’s revenue and cost trends discussed below, we think the steady state OP margin could be substantially lower than consensus.
  • Expecting consensus to downgrade expectations, we don’t think it is worthwhile paying up to 45.0x FY+2 OP (on our steady-state OP margin) for Pinduoduo at its current EV of $80.5bn.

Korea Kolmar: When Will People in Korea Stop Wearing Masks?

By Douglas Kim

  • The Korean government removed mask mandates for public transportation in Korea as of Monday, 20 March including in buses, taxis, and subways.
  • There are four major reasons why it will take much longer time for most people in Korea to stop wearing masks. 
  • As millions of people stop wearing masks in the coming year, there will be clear, visible higher demand for cosmetics, which should benefit companies such as Korea Kolmar. 

GoTo: Ambitious Profit Target to Further Stall Growth

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • GoTo (GOTO IJ) reported 4Q2022 and full-year 2022 results yesterday. Gross revenue increased 18.0% YoY to IDR6.3trn while adjusted EBITDA losses declined to IDR3.1trn vs IDR6.5trn in 4Q2021.
  • However, adjusted EBITDA as % of net revenues has increased considerably compared to 3Q2022 due to increase in variable costs.
  • GoTo’s ambitious profitability target would prevent the company from fully exploiting growth opportunities which will lead to further decline in growth rates.

Shortlist of High Conviction Ideas – Income, Value, Margin of Safety

By Sameer Taneja


Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU): It’s Not Too Late to Join the Bandwagon; More Stream Is Still Left

By Tina Banerjee

  • Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU AU)‘s lead product Daybue (trofinetide) has obtained FDA approval for the treatment of Rett syndrome in adult and pediatric patients two years of age and older.  
  • Daybue is expected to be available in the US in April, 2023. Neuren is eligible to receive royalties on net sales of trofinetide in North America, plus milestone payments.  
  • Geography expansion of trofinetide (mainly European approval and launch), label expansion possibility of trofinetide, and Neuren’s pipeline progress can act as potential upside catalysts for the stock.

Fu Shou Yuan (1448.HK) – 2022 Results Missed Expectations, but the Outlook Remains Positive

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK)’s 2022 results were below our expectations. Affected by the 22Q4 pandemic, the performance recovery in 22H2 was lower than expected. 
  • The high demand due to soaring death rate since 22Q4 would be reflected in 23H1 results. Together with low base last year, strong performance rebound in 23H1 is worth expecting.
  • The reason behind short-term trade and long-term hold is different. But considering the Company has no obvious flaws in its long logic, every pullback can be a good buying opportunity.

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Daily Brief Macro: Singapore Banks: Breaking Out and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Singapore Banks: Breaking Out
  • CX Daily: 2008 Redux? SVB Collapse Raises Questions About Banking Oversight

Singapore Banks: Breaking Out

By Steven Holden

  • A record 25.3% of Global funds have exposure to Singapore Banks, breaking out of a range of between 18% and 24% over the last decade.
  • DBS Group favoured by investors, owned by 17.7% of funds compared to 11.2% in UOB and 7% in OCBC. 
  • After the recent rotation, Singapore Banks are now the 4th most widely held Bank exposure, behind US, Indian and Canadian Banks but ahead of fellow European and Asian peers.  

CX Daily: 2008 Redux? SVB Collapse Raises Questions About Banking Oversight

By Caixin Global

  • Banking / Cover Story: 2008 Redux? SVB collapse raises questions about banking oversight

  • Research / China launches campaign to tackle pressing domestic challenges

  • Taiwan / Beijing welcomes ex-Taiwan leader’s visit to the mainland


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Daily Brief China: Sun Hung Kai &, Meituan, Tencent, Megvii Technology, Fu Shou Yuan, Pinduoduo, SmartMore Technology, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, Xpeng and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • SHK 86_HK: Dividend Yield 8%, P/E 2.0x, P/B 0.27x
  • Meituan Tactical Slide into Our Buy Zone
  • Meituan (3690 HK) Earnings Preview: Less Loss in 4Q22 and to See Profit in 2023
  • China Internet Weekly (20Mar2023): Baidu, Tencent, KE
  • Megvii: An Artificial Intelligence Powerhouse in China
  • Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Key Takeaways from Post-FY22 Call
  • Pinduoduo (PDD): 4Q22, Lower Than Consensus, But Higher Than Competitors
  • Smartmore: Using AI to Implement Smart Manufacturing
  • Morning Views Asia: Melco Resorts & Entertainment, Sunny Optical
  • [XPeng (XPEV US) Earnings Review]: Facing Price War and Fiercer Competition in 2023

SHK 86_HK: Dividend Yield 8%, P/E 2.0x, P/B 0.27x

By Evaluate Research

  • For FY2022–Total Buyback of 5.9 million shares (HK$18.3 million) at average price of $3.10
  • Funds Management Business – Extended Platform to provide Family Office Solutions
  • Funds Management Unit – Total AUM increased 21% to US$975 million in 2022 with external capital accounting for 46.5%

Meituan Tactical Slide into Our Buy Zone

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Macro trend remains challenging for Meituan over the summer. We see a tactical short out of triangulation and view a new low as a turn and buy signal.
  • RSI bull divergence support a series of tactical rally sequences off of a new low, but macro headwinds will cap over the summer.
  • Bull set up at lower expanding wedge support with wedge resistance coming in near 140. 

Meituan (3690 HK) Earnings Preview: Less Loss in 4Q22 and to See Profit in 2023

By Ming Lu

  • We believe total revenue grew 18% in 4Q22 and 22% in 2023.
  • We believe operating losses decreased YoY in 4Q22 and the company will report an operating profit in 2023.
  • We expect the stock has an upside of 47% for year end 2023.

China Internet Weekly (20Mar2023): Baidu, Tencent, KE

By Ming Lu

  • Baidu launched a beta test of a ChatGTP-like function, WXYY.
  • Tencent announced it will close its digital collection platform, Huanhe, in June.
  • KE’s revenue decreased by 25% and new losses were RMB1.4 billion.

Megvii: An Artificial Intelligence Powerhouse in China

By Douglas Kim

  • Megvii is a leading artificial intelligence company in China focusing on IoT scenarios for mainly three fields including Consumer IoT, City IoT and Supply Chain IoT. 
  • In June 2022, Megvii’s chief scientist Sun Jian passed away due to a sudden illness. His death was one of the key reasons why the company has postponed the IPO.
  • Major investors in Megvii include Ant Group, Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Lenovo (992 HK), and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority.

Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK): Key Takeaways from Post-FY22 Call

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • After a dip in earnings in FY22, Fu Shou Yuan (1448 HK) guides for an encouraging rebound in FY23 with at least 35% revenue and 30-35% net profit growth.
  • We think the 12.7% growth in earnings in 2H22, against -28.9% in 1H22, showed that pandemic impact has faded. It is still very well positioned to benefit from aging population. 
  • Net cash equals 19% of its share price and its 13.9x PER for FY23 is not expensive relative to peers. We estimate, ex-cash, ROE is at a high of 24%. 

Pinduoduo (PDD): 4Q22, Lower Than Consensus, But Higher Than Competitors

By Ming Lu

  • In 4Q22, revenue grew by 46% YoY, lower than consensus, but higher than competitors.
  • The operating margin improved significantly from 7% in 2021 to 23% in 2022.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 31% and a price target of US$120.

Smartmore: Using AI to Implement Smart Manufacturing

By Douglas Kim

  • Established in 2019 and headquartered in Hong Kong, Smartmore is a technology company that focuses on the use of artificial intelligence to implement smart manufacturing and ultra-high definition videos.
  • The company’s intelligent manufacturing technology helps detect malfunction at manufacturing lines in numerous industries such as autos and semiconductors.
  • Since the inception of the company, Smartmore has raised nearly $300 million in funding. Its major investors include Hermitage Capital, IDG Capital, Sequoia Capital China, and Lenovo Capital.

Morning Views Asia: Melco Resorts & Entertainment, Sunny Optical

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


[XPeng (XPEV US) Earnings Review]: Facing Price War and Fiercer Competition in 2023

By Shawn Yang

  • Xpeng reported soft 4Q22 results, with top line of RMB 5.14bn, missing our estimate/cons. by (5.6%)/(9.7%); GPM of 8.7%, missing our estimate/cons. by (1.6ppt)/(3.4ppt), primarily due to increased sales promotions. 
  • We maintain SELL, because 1) price war and intensified competition in 2023 are still key challenges facing its existing and new models; 
  • 2) margin pressure ahead amid the price war, while its cost reduction initiatives starting from 2H23 take time to verify effect.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Del Monte Pacific and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Del Monte Pacific: Interest Costs Weigh On Financials

Del Monte Pacific: Interest Costs Weigh On Financials

By David Blennerhassett

  • Global branded food and beverage outfit Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP) recently announced group sales grew by 3% to US$68mn in the 3Q23 (April Y/E).
  • However net profit declined by 62% to US$9.8mn due to lower operating results and increased interest expense from higher cost bank loans.
  • Del Monte’s net debt, net gearing, and net debt/EBITDA were S$2.2bn, 582.5%, and 6.1x, compared to S$1.45bn, 211%, and 4.2x a year ago. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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