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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Sep 20
0

Daily Brief ECM: Onewo Space-Tech IPO – Appears Digestible Even on Conservative Assumptions and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Onewo Space-Tech IPO – Appears Digestible Even on Conservative Assumptions
  • WCP IPO: Final IPO Price Set, Still an Avoid
  • Porsche IPO Preview
  • Broadcom Inc: Collaboration With Dell & Other Drivers
  • Etsy Inc: New Purchase Protection Feature & Other Developments
  • HP Inc.: Weakened Macro & Other Developments
  • Best Buy Inc: New Small Format Digital-First Store & Other Drivers
  • Uber Technologies: AV-Based Food Delivery Pilot & Other Developments
  • Autodesk Inc: Introduction of AutoCAD Web & Other Drivers
  • Freeport-McMoran Inc: New Mining Technologies & Other Drivers

Onewo Space-Tech IPO – Appears Digestible Even on Conservative Assumptions

By Sumeet Singh

  • Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK) (OST) aims to raise upto US$784m in its Hong Kong IPO. OST is a property management service provider primarily owned by China Vanke (2202 HK). 
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, amongst the residential community service providers in China, OST ranked first. It also ranked first in the commercial space integrated services market in China.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about valuations.

WCP IPO: Final IPO Price Set, Still an Avoid

By Arun George

  • WCP (WCP KS), a lithium-ion batteries separator company, has set its IPO price at KRW60,000 per share, a hefty 25-40% discount on the “desired” IPO price range of KRW80,000-100,000. 
  • The target raise has declined from KRW720-900 billion (US$517-646 million) to KRW432 billion (US$310 million) due to the lower IPO price and offer shares.
  • While the final IPO price is now reasonable, the process smacks desperation and calls into question the credibility of the syndicate’s forecasts. This is still an avoid.

Porsche IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • The Porsche IPO is expected to be the second largest IPO ever in Germany. Total proceeds from the IPO will be 18.1 billion to 19.5 billion euros.
  • The IPO price range is from 76.50 euros to 82.50 euros per share, which suggests a valuation of 70 billion to 75 billion euros.
  • After the IPO, Volkswagen will have an extraordinary shareholders meeting in December to propose to pay 49% of total proceeds to shareholders in early 2023 as a special dividend.

Broadcom Inc: Collaboration With Dell & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Broadcom reported an all-around beat in the quarter with an increase in revenues in semiconductor solutions and infrastructure software.
  • Service and cloud provider growth remained strong in the quarter, driven by infrastructural upgrades and data center build-outs.
  • As both enterprise and cloud data centers refresh, they continue to increase the adoption of the company’s Jericho, Trident, and Tomahawk switching silicon platforms.

Etsy Inc: New Purchase Protection Feature & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Etsy recently launched the Etsy Purchase Protection program where buyers will get a total refund for purchases they make on Etsy.com in cases that do not match the item description, never arrive, or arrive damaged.
  • This new program aims at making shopping on the website more worry-free.
  • The purchase Protection Program of Etsy will complement the company’s brand efforts in improving customer support, maintaining integrity in its marketplace as a destination for special and unique items, and increasing trust signals over the user experience.

HP Inc.: Weakened Macro & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • HP Inc also had a significantly below par result along with its rival, Dell Technologies as the industry cycle has commenced its downward trend after the huge upswing during the pandemic.
  • The results of this quarter were impacted by macroeconomic challenges, which included a significant slowdown in consumer demand to geopolitical, currency, and inflation challenges.
  • Recently, the company introduced its HP Instant Ink for its small business and its innovative LaserJet Pro with HP+.

Best Buy Inc: New Small Format Digital-First Store & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Best Buy delivered a decent result this quarter surpassing Wall Street expectations on all counts.
  • Best Buy is also viewing more interest in the sales events such as tax-free events, prime day, and other events that are geared at an exceptional value.
  • Best Buy also opened new outlet stores, finished store remodels, and started to implement newly signed deals with healthcare companies.

Uber Technologies: AV-Based Food Delivery Pilot & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Uber Technologies delivered a mixed quarterly result with revenues above expectations resulting from an increase in the annualized run rate and gross bookings.
  • The company failed to meet market expectations on the earnings front as a result of considerable forex challenges through it did generate a positive free cash flow.
  • The top-line growth of the company continues to be durable and the onboarding process has shown a significant improvement.

Autodesk Inc: Introduction of AutoCAD Web & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Autodesk reported a solid quarter in terms of revenue, free cash flow, and non-GAAP operating margin.
  • The end market’s demand remained strong for the company and it delivered another all-around beat.
  • Among key developments, Autodesk introduced AutoCAD Web, a new combined subscription to AutoCAD Web and AutoCAD Mobile from Autodesk with improved access to drawings.

Freeport-McMoran Inc: New Mining Technologies & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Freeport delivered a disappointing result and failed to meet Wall Street expectations on all counts but the future outlook remains optimistic.
  • The company is increasing production year over year, and controlling expenses in a difficult environment and benefits from a highly favorable macro for copper.
  • With an expected rise in demand for copper with respect to energy conservation especially in EVs, the company benefits from a positive future macro.

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Sep 20
0

Daily Brief ESG: Smartkarma Webinar | ESG Risks in Korea and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Webinar | ESG Risks in Korea

Smartkarma Webinar | ESG Risks in Korea

By Smartkarma Research

In our next Webinar, we welcome Analyst Soo Young Kim , who will take us through the ESG risks present in South Korea and her analysis based on negative ESG incidents. 

The webinar will be hosted on Wednesday, 21 September 2022, 17:00 SGT/HKT.

Soo Young is the Head of ESG Intelligence at Who’s Good, Asia’s first AI-driven ESG Insight Provider. Using AI technologies and public data, Who’s Good provides objective and up-to-date corporate ESG insights on Asian companies.

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Sep 20
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Vanke and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, Country Garden Holdings Co

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke, Country Garden Holdings Co

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Sep 20
0

Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, Seven & I Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News “Leaks” Likely
  • Toshiba – Japan Industrial Partners The Only Real Bid?
  • Seven & I: Going Strong in Overseas, Another Beat On the Cards

Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News “Leaks” Likely

By Travis Lundy

  • Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.
  • If no deal, there’s downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.
  • I don’t see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.

Toshiba – Japan Industrial Partners The Only Real Bid?

By Mio Kato

  • Since the second of Jun Toshiba is down 14.7% while TOPIX is up 0.7%. 
  • This underperformance against TOPIX and industry peers suggests that some of the implied acquisition premium has dissipated. 
  • With reasonable potential for some form of bid coming through we consider the news about Japan Industrial Partners growing its consortium.

Seven & I: Going Strong in Overseas, Another Beat On the Cards

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • After raising guidance yet again in 1QFY23 through stronger than expected performance in the overseas business, Seven & I is scheduled to release Q2 results on 6th October 2022.
  • We are optimistic that 2QFY23 could provide the platform for Seven & I to break the ¥6,100 level, at which the share-price has been stuck for the first 9-months 2022.
  • This is because, we are seeing a significant improvement in Seven & I’s domestic performance while, North America is carrying the growth momentum that been there since the Speedway-acquisition.

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Sep 20
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News “Leaks” Likely and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News “Leaks” Likely
  • OZ Minerals May Be Narrowing the Price Gap to a BHP Deal
  • Toshiba – Japan Industrial Partners The Only Real Bid?
  • Link’s On Again-Off Again Scheme Is All but Off
  • Trading Angles of Hyundai Green Food Demerger, with Potential Tender & Hive-Off

Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News “Leaks” Likely

By Travis Lundy

  • Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.
  • If no deal, there’s downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.
  • I don’t see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.

OZ Minerals May Be Narrowing the Price Gap to a BHP Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • Six+ weeks ago, BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) approached OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) with a bid of A$25/share. Oz very quickly rejected it and said it was worth more.
  • The back and forth immediately post-rejection was not conciliatory. My expectation was that if they came back quickly, they’d have to pay A$30. But coming back quickly was tough.
  • There are hints now that may be the price. But it may not be. It will take time. 

Toshiba – Japan Industrial Partners The Only Real Bid?

By Mio Kato

  • Since the second of Jun Toshiba is down 14.7% while TOPIX is up 0.7%. 
  • This underperformance against TOPIX and industry peers suggests that some of the implied acquisition premium has dissipated. 
  • With reasonable potential for some form of bid coming through we consider the news about Japan Industrial Partners growing its consortium.

Link’s On Again-Off Again Scheme Is All but Off

By Arun George

  • Dye & Durham/DND has proposed a revised Link Administration (LNK AU) offer to address any FCA redress payments. Around A$1.00 per share will hang on the outcome of the FCA investigation.
  • The Link Board has said it cannot recommend the revised proposal based on value, structure and alternatives available to Link. We agree with the Board’s view.
  • The scheme is all but dead. The shares are now a back-end play and remain attractive for value investors.

Trading Angles of Hyundai Green Food Demerger, with Potential Tender & Hive-Off

By Sanghyun Park

  • The value accretion that will occur by unlocking treasury shares will be more significant than Hyundai Dept. The treasury shares account for 10.64%, compared with 6.61% for Hyundai Dept.
  • Neither Holdco nor Opco will likely remain in the KOSPI 200 after relisting. So we cannot expect PASSIVE inflow at the time of relisting.
  • A tender will likely follow. However, neither is available for shorting. So, we should use Opco’s overheated price adjustment as an exit timing for our positions aimed at value accretion.

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Sep 20
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Understanding Party/State Positions and The Trinity Of Leadership and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Understanding Party/State Positions and The Trinity Of Leadership

Understanding Party/State Positions and The Trinity Of Leadership

By David Blennerhassett

  • China’s 20th Party Congress opens on the 16th October 2022. 
  • The Party Congress can give Xi Jinping a third term as General Secretary; not confer him a third term as President as is often incorrectly reported in the media.
  • The apparent confusion between Party and State positions requires some clarification, which hopefully this insight achieves.

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Sep 20
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Seven & I: Going Strong in Overseas and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Seven & I: Going Strong in Overseas, Another Beat On the Cards
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Biden Says US Will Defend Taiwan, Texas Instruments Gives Hope
  • Meituan (3690 HK): User Base Beating Competitor, Industry Recovering, Upgrade to Hold
  • Aier Eye Hospital (300015.CH) 22H1 – More Downside Ahead; The Long Logic Doesn’t Exist
  • CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Good Time to Re-Visit
  • Agilent Technologies: New Launches In Mass Spectrometry & Other Drivers
  • Big Food Automation
  • ATEN: Security Remains in Demand
  • WDFC: Expectations Set for Disappointment

Seven & I: Going Strong in Overseas, Another Beat On the Cards

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • After raising guidance yet again in 1QFY23 through stronger than expected performance in the overseas business, Seven & I is scheduled to release Q2 results on 6th October 2022.
  • We are optimistic that 2QFY23 could provide the platform for Seven & I to break the ¥6,100 level, at which the share-price has been stuck for the first 9-months 2022.
  • This is because, we are seeing a significant improvement in Seven & I’s domestic performance while, North America is carrying the growth momentum that been there since the Speedway-acquisition.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Biden Says US Will Defend Taiwan, Texas Instruments Gives Hope

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Biden makes the most definitive statement to date that the US will defend Taiwan.
  • Texas Instruments hikes dividend, annouces additional buyback. Will other cash rich semiconductor stocks follow suit?
  • Intel vs. TSMC/UMC Trade Monitor: We look at performance streaks for the pairs. Intel outperforming over the last trading sessions.

Meituan (3690 HK): User Base Beating Competitor, Industry Recovering, Upgrade to Hold

By Ming Lu

  • In July, Meituan’s user base exceeded Ele.me and Ele.me’s active user base decreased by 24% YoY.
  • In China, Monthly active user bases of local life and food delivery recovered from May to July.
  • We believe Meituan’s stock has only a downside of 6% for year end 2023.

Aier Eye Hospital (300015.CH) 22H1 – More Downside Ahead; The Long Logic Doesn’t Exist

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The fundamental changes in the population structure will lead to a decline in the growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods. The long logic doesn’t exist.
  • Aier has hit a growth ceiling. As the endogenous demand will be stepped downward gradually, the performance of Aier will further decline. The downward elasticity of valuation is greater.
  • It is still difficult for healthcare sector to have its own independent growth logic. The bottom of healthcare sector would appear after the collapse of Aier’s valuation.

CPMC Holdings (906 HK): Good Time to Re-Visit

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Underpinned by higher ASP and sequentially lower input costs, CPMC Holdings (906 HK) should achieve better margin in 2H22. Its 17% fall in share price YTD makes it appealing.
  • Average aluminum price was down 14% so far in 2H22, vs. 1H21, good to its costs. Well-controlled selling and administrative costs will help to support profitability recovery.
  • New two-piece can capacity will grow by 54% over the next three years as 5 production lines are expected to be added. Most of them already have demand lined up.

Agilent Technologies: New Launches In Mass Spectrometry & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Agilent Technologies delivered an excellent quarterly result with earnings and revenue exceeding market expectations significantly.
  • The strong results were led by strength in its biggest markets i.e., chemical, energy, and pharma.
  • We provide the stock of Agilent Technologies with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

Big Food Automation

By subSPAC

  • While the pandemic has uprooted many industries, perhaps none have seen a larger impact than the Restaurant and Fast Food Industry.
  • These industries have been hit with a barrage of issues including a mass exodus of workers, inflation hitting the prices of ingredients, and foot traffic being much lower due to a change in eating preferences.
  • These chains have struggled with their profit margins, which have yet to reclaim their pre-covid levels and could get worse due to several headwinds in the coming months.

ATEN: Security Remains in Demand

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ATEN should continue to benefit from security remaining at the top of priority lists for enterprises and service providers after more network intrusion and hacking news in recent days
  • The proposal from Vista Equity Partners to purchase KnowBe4 (KNBE) provides greater clarity of the discount ATEN’s stock trades at
  • ATEN’s purchase of shares from its venture capital shareholder, Summit Partners, at $12.75 per share suggests there is value at current levels

WDFC: Expectations Set for Disappointment

By Hamed Khorsand

  • The recent decline in crude oil has resulted in optimism WDFC’s gross margin would improve. There is a delay before WDFC sees a benefit/impact from the price of oil
  • We continue to maintain our viewpoint of WDFC experiencing slower demand for its products from consumers and retailers holding back on orders
  • WDFC’s exposure to international markets could negatively impact sales due to the strong US Dollar

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Sep 20
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Post-Merge Market Mayhem and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Post-Merge Market Mayhem

Post-Merge Market Mayhem

By Kaiko

  • Price Movements: ETH is down 25% on the week despite the successful completion of the Merge.
  • Market Liquidity: The U.S. dollar remains the dominant fiat currency in crypto, possessing 70% of total fiat trade volume.
  • Derivatives: ETH funding rates have returned to neutral after dipping to all time lows of less than -0.4%. 

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Sep 20
0

Daily Brief Macro: India: Tailwinds from Reopening On Its Last Legs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • India: Tailwinds from Reopening On Its Last Legs
  • China: Do Not Get Your Hopes up for Stronger Growth Just Yet
  • A Downturn in the Asian Technology Sector Is Imminent
  • The Commodity Report #69

India: Tailwinds from Reopening On Its Last Legs

By Nicholas Chia

  • The economic momentum is waning as tailwinds from the reopening fade.
  • Inflationary pressures have trended up, primarily because of base effects. We envision inflation easing to 7.0% in 3Q22 and 6.4% in 4Q22.
  • But, the RBI will not let up on tightening just yet, given that price pressures are stickier in India. We therefore pencil a 35bps rate hike on 30th September.

China: Do Not Get Your Hopes up for Stronger Growth Just Yet

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Stimulus is bearing fruit as economic activity picks up amid a continuing slump in the real estate sector and continued lockdowns.
  • But stronger growth is not necessarily on the cards yet. The effectiveness of stimulus is diminished by weakened confidence in the economy and poor incentives to implement policy.
  • The net result is a sluggish recovery in growth with continued large downside risks. The authorities will have little choice but to expand their support measures more aggressively.

A Downturn in the Asian Technology Sector Is Imminent

By Nigel Chiang

  • Early signs of export declines: Export figures for Taiwan and South Korea, two powerhouse exporters of technology-related goods, are showing the beginnings of a slowdown
  • Inventory accumulation has continued: A combination of a build-up in inventories and a downturn in Capex intentions are further risk factors for the sector’s performance
  • But long-term structural factors such as changing consumer and business practices and government priorities may provide a medium-to-long term buffer against cyclical forces.

The Commodity Report #69

By The Commodity Report

  • Probably the best news of the week was that a rail strike in the US was averted after both parties agreed on a deal including higher wages and benefits for rail workers.
  • The deal includes a 24% wage increase over five years, including 14,1 % effective immediately as well as five annual $1.000 payments, according to the National Carriers’ Conference Committee.
  • According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are currently 150.000 people working in the US railway sector.

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Sep 20
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Toshiba Corp, WCP and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News “Leaks” Likely
  • Toshiba – Japan Industrial Partners The Only Real Bid?
  • WCP IPO: Final IPO Price Set, Still an Avoid

Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News “Leaks” Likely

By Travis Lundy

  • Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.
  • If no deal, there’s downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.
  • I don’t see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.

Toshiba – Japan Industrial Partners The Only Real Bid?

By Mio Kato

  • Since the second of Jun Toshiba is down 14.7% while TOPIX is up 0.7%. 
  • This underperformance against TOPIX and industry peers suggests that some of the implied acquisition premium has dissipated. 
  • With reasonable potential for some form of bid coming through we consider the news about Japan Industrial Partners growing its consortium.

WCP IPO: Final IPO Price Set, Still an Avoid

By Arun George

  • WCP (WCP KS), a lithium-ion batteries separator company, has set its IPO price at KRW60,000 per share, a hefty 25-40% discount on the “desired” IPO price range of KRW80,000-100,000. 
  • The target raise has declined from KRW720-900 billion (US$517-646 million) to KRW432 billion (US$310 million) due to the lower IPO price and offer shares.
  • While the final IPO price is now reasonable, the process smacks desperation and calls into question the credibility of the syndicate’s forecasts. This is still an avoid.

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