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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Feb 16
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Sea Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • [Sea (SE US, SELL, TP US$55) Target Price Change]: A Margin-Beat Quarter Followed by a Tough 2023

[Sea (SE US, SELL, TP US$55) Target Price Change]: A Margin-Beat Quarter Followed by a Tough 2023

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate SEA’s 4Q22 revenue to be largely in line with cons., while non-GAAP net loss to be narrower than cons. 
  • We see SEA to continue to experience challenges in top-line growth because of inflation, competition with TikTok, and weak performance of Free Fire. Yet, the losses will be better managed.
  • We slightly raise SE’s TP by 6% to US$55 to reflect 4Q22’s margin beat, yet maintain SELL because of the mid-to-long-term challenges.

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Feb 16
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Adaro Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback – A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV

Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback – A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, Indonesia’s second largest coal mining business Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) announced a buyback. This follows another buyback which ended in December 2022.
  • The Sep21-Dec22 buyback bought back 1bn shares, but did not spend all the money allocated to the buyback. This new one might buy back a similar quantity.
  • Looking at Real World Float is the right frame of reference. And the stock was at a recent low vs a Peer Basket. 

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Feb 16
0

Daily Brief South Korea: S.M.Entertainment Co, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index, SOCAR and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Who Wants SM Entertainment More? Kim Bum-Soo (Kakao) Or Bang Si-Hyuk (Hybe)?
  • EQD | KOSPI2 Index: Reloading on Upside Calls
  • SoCar Lock-Up – US$242m Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiry, Expect Scattered Selling

Who Wants SM Entertainment More? Kim Bum-Soo (Kakao) Or Bang Si-Hyuk (Hybe)?

By Douglas Kim

  • It has been reported that Kakao has hired local brokerage firms to discuss the details of another tender offer of SM Entertainment shares (at more than 130,000 won).
  • We believe that this has been the key reason why SM Entertainment’s shares rose an additional 5% on 15 February.
  • We believe that eventually Kakao Group will win the M&A fight for SM Entertainment and shares of SM could rise further in the coming weeks. 

EQD | KOSPI2 Index: Reloading on Upside Calls

By Simon Harris

  • KOSPI2 Index trading off the highs but supported by the 200-dma
  • Implied vols are trading cheap offering a good entry point
  • Options continue to be priced cheaply and we look at simple upside plays

SoCar Lock-Up – US$242m Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiry, Expect Scattered Selling

By Ethan Aw

  • SOCAR (403550 KS) was listed on 22nd Aug 2022, where it raised US$78m in its Korea IPO. Its six-month lockup will expire on 21st Feb 2023. 
  • SoCar is a Korean car sharing business which aims to become an all-in-one mobility solutions provider beyond car sharing, with approximately 78% domestic market share in the car sharing space.
  • Coming up for six-month lockup expiry are the firm’s pre-IPO investors, but the bulk of the shares unlocked will come from its strategic investors.

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Feb 16
0

Daily Brief India: InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Has Sold Before, Will Sell Again
  • Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Has Sold Before, Will Sell Again

By Sumeet Singh

  • Indigo’s co-founder Rakesh Gangwal aims to raise around US$375m via selling around 4.0% of the company.
  • He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with the other co-founder. He last sold in Sep 2022.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Feb 16
0

Daily Brief China: HK Electric Investments, Oriental Watch, JOYY, Sonoscape Medical Corp and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Electric Investments (2638 HK): MSCI Deletion Could Mark a Bottom
  • Oriental Watch: Management Meet, HK Slow + China Resilient, 50% of Mkt Cap Cash + 15% Yield
  • [JOYY (YY US, SELL, TP US$25.1) Target Price Change]: Price Correction to Come Amid Global Headwinds
  • 2023 High Conviction Update: Sonoscape Medical (300633.CH) – High Growth Is Expected to Continue

HK Electric Investments (2638 HK): MSCI Deletion Could Mark a Bottom

By Brian Freitas

  • HK Electric Investments (2638 HK) will be deleted from the MSCI Hong Kong Index at the close on 28 February. This was largely expected.
  • We estimate passive MSCI trackers will need to sell 172.3m shares (US$111m; 19.1 days of ADV to trade). That is a lot. But there are pre-positions on the stock.
  • HK Electric Investments (2638 HK) has underperformed its peers and now trades at a lower price to book. There could be outperformance post the MSCI deletion.

Oriental Watch: Management Meet, HK Slow + China Resilient, 50% of Mkt Cap Cash + 15% Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • We met with the management of Oriental Watch (398 HK).  HK demand continues to be sluggish, while China sales were resilient with single-digit SSSG growth. 
  • The company will continue with its conservative policy of not expanding as Rolex/Patek restrict watch supply. It will only foray into boutique expansions if KPIs on return/brands etc., are met.
  • With its generous >100% payout ratio, the stock trades at a 15% dividend yield based on our estimated 6.9x FY23 PE, with >50% of its market capitalization in net cash.

[JOYY (YY US, SELL, TP US$25.1) Target Price Change]: Price Correction to Come Amid Global Headwinds

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate JOYY’s 4Q22 top line/bottom line to miss cons. by (3%)/(12%), as TikTok’s influence in major market expands. 
  • We suggest that a much slower recovery in 1Q23 does not bode well for its full year outlook. Our top line and bottom line are (2%)/(14%) lower than cons.
  • Maintain SELL and cut TP to US$25.1, implying 12.8X PE in 2023.

2023 High Conviction Update: Sonoscape Medical (300633.CH) – High Growth Is Expected to Continue

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We are optimistic about Sonoscape’s 2022 annual results, which was an important turning year. Due to policy catalyst/China reopening, Sonoscape would maintain high growth in 2023, with relatively high certainty.
  • Sonoscape has established a high moat in the field of soft endoscopes. Even if new manufacturers enter this market, they are hard to affect the market pattern in short term.
  • Although the current valuation is not cheap, based on our forecast of its business lines, there’s still growth space in valuation. Under positive momentum, this stock can be traded repeatedly.

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Feb 16
0

Daily Brief Japan: MatsukiyoCocokara, Japan Tobacco, Morinaga Milk Industry Co, Rakuten Bank, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • The MatsuKiyoCocokara (3088) February Flow Show
  • Japan Tobacco: An Activist Targeting Torii Pharmaceutical, Turns to JT to Fulfil Their Wishes
  • Morinaga Milk (2264 JP)’s Overseas Expansion
  • Rakuten Bank IPO Early Look – The Positives – Has Grown Fast over the past Few Years
  • Comparability of Disclosures Between Companies Will Enhance Content of Sustainability Information

The MatsuKiyoCocokara (3088) February Flow Show

By Travis Lundy

  • MatsukiyoCocokara (3088 JP) has run up quite well in the past year, rising strongly and outperforming Peers significantly. It has been the avatar of Inbound Rebound hopes and dreams.
  • Over that time, forward EPS expectations have also improved, but not as much as price. MatsukiyoCocokara used to be cheap to peers on forward PER. Now it is not.
  • 28 Feb sees an MSCI inclusion trade to swing 7% of shares from active to passive. Understanding where those come from is key.

Japan Tobacco: An Activist Targeting Torii Pharmaceutical, Turns to JT to Fulfil Their Wishes

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)’s 4Q22 results were stronger than anticipated yet again with revenue and OP surpassing consensus by 4.3% and 35.2% respectively through selling price increments.
  • 2023 guidance looks a bit disappointing, with the company guiding adjusted OP at ¥667bn in 2023 compared to ¥729bn in the previous year, expecting an unfavourable foreign exchange movement.
  • But the highlight these days was the proposal by the activist investor LIM Advisors to dispose JT’s share ownership in Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP).

Morinaga Milk (2264 JP)’s Overseas Expansion

By David Blennerhassett

  • Last week, Japanese dairy play Morinaga Milk Industry Co (2264 JP) acquired a soy-based food company in the US and a baby formula distribution company in Vietnam
  • These acquisitions are in keeping with Moringa’s medium-term business plan (to Mar-2025) to achieve an overseas sale ratio of 13%, compared to 8.7% last year.
  • 3Q23 results were also announced with 9M23 sales and operating profit of ¥405.2bn and ¥20.5bn, a change of +16.8% and -7.2% yoy.

Rakuten Bank IPO Early Look – The Positives – Has Grown Fast over the past Few Years

By Sumeet Singh

  • Rakuten Bank, the online banking arm of Rakuten Inc (4755 JP), aims to raise around US$500m (estimated) in its Japan listing in April 2023. 
  • RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Mar 2023, it had 13.39m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.6tn. 
  • In this note we take an early look at the IPO and talk about the positive aspects of its past performance.

Comparability of Disclosures Between Companies Will Enhance Content of Sustainability Information

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since the revised Corporate Governance Code in 2021 requires TCFD disclosure for prime market listed companies, TCFD disclosure is expected to expand to all prime listed market companies going forward.
  • Most companies do not have a roadmap for meeting their emissions targets, and there is a need to look carefully at whether their numerical targets and timelines are reasonable.
  • Until now, companies that preceded TCFD disclosures have mainly disclosed information in integrated reports. However, attention will focus on how these information will be disclosed in the Annual Securities Report.

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Feb 16
0

Most Read: Toshiba Corp, Adani Green Energy, MatsukiyoCocokara, Adaro Energy, HK Electric Investments, Dentium, PolyNovo Ltd, S.M.Entertainment Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba – As Bad As It Gets?
  • Adani Group: Upcoming & Potential Index Impacts
  • The MatsuKiyoCocokara (3088) February Flow Show
  • Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback – A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV
  • Three Major Reasons Why Foreigner Are Pouring In So Much Capital into Korean Equities in 2023
  • HK Electric Investments (2638 HK): MSCI Deletion Could Mark a Bottom
  • Potential Inclusions & Exclusions in KOSPI 200 Rebalance in May 2023
  • S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete
  • Who Wants SM Entertainment More? Kim Bum-Soo (Kakao) Or Bang Si-Hyuk (Hybe)?
  • Good Morning Japan |GOLDILOCKS?: Higher Rates, Strong USD=Higher Equities; In JP, Mr Yen Says 120

Toshiba – As Bad As It Gets?

By Mio Kato

  • Toshiba results looked rather poor at the headline on account of additional one-off costs leading to a guidance downgrade to ¥95bn in OP. 
  • Despite that, we see some small positive signs across the various industrial segments. 
  • On balance, however, the downgrade and tight lips on the JIP bid leave little to be positive about in the near term.

Adani Group: Upcoming & Potential Index Impacts

By Brian Freitas

The MatsuKiyoCocokara (3088) February Flow Show

By Travis Lundy

  • MatsukiyoCocokara (3088 JP) has run up quite well in the past year, rising strongly and outperforming Peers significantly. It has been the avatar of Inbound Rebound hopes and dreams.
  • Over that time, forward EPS expectations have also improved, but not as much as price. MatsukiyoCocokara used to be cheap to peers on forward PER. Now it is not.
  • 28 Feb sees an MSCI inclusion trade to swing 7% of shares from active to passive. Understanding where those come from is key.

Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback – A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, Indonesia’s second largest coal mining business Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) announced a buyback. This follows another buyback which ended in December 2022.
  • The Sep21-Dec22 buyback bought back 1bn shares, but did not spend all the money allocated to the buyback. This new one might buy back a similar quantity.
  • Looking at Real World Float is the right frame of reference. And the stock was at a recent low vs a Peer Basket. 

Three Major Reasons Why Foreigner Are Pouring In So Much Capital into Korean Equities in 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss three major reasons why foreigners are pouring so much capital into the Korean stock market this year.
  • In the first two months of 2023 (as of 13 February), foreigners net purchased 8.2 trillion won in KOSPI included stocks.
  • These three major reasons include meaningful corporate governance improvements, increasing probability of South Korea being included in the MSCI developed country status, and overall turnaround in the global equity markets.

HK Electric Investments (2638 HK): MSCI Deletion Could Mark a Bottom

By Brian Freitas

  • HK Electric Investments (2638 HK) will be deleted from the MSCI Hong Kong Index at the close on 28 February. This was largely expected.
  • We estimate passive MSCI trackers will need to sell 172.3m shares (US$111m; 19.1 days of ADV to trade). That is a lot. But there are pre-positions on the stock.
  • HK Electric Investments (2638 HK) has underperformed its peers and now trades at a lower price to book. There could be outperformance post the MSCI deletion.

Potential Inclusions & Exclusions in KOSPI 200 Rebalance in May 2023

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss potential inclusions and exclusions of the upcoming KOSPI 200 rebalance in May 2023. With regards to the upcoming KOSPI 200 rebalance, we like the following long-short trading strategy.
  • We would short a basket of potential exclusions from KOSPI 200 rebalance which would include the bottom 5% of KOSPI 200 index (10 stocks).
  • We would go long a basket of potential inclusions in KOSPI 200 rebalance which include four stocks including Dentium, Jeju Air, Samyang Foods, and DGB Financial. 

S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

By Brian Freitas

  • We currently see 1 change for the ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the ASX200 Index, 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
  • On average, the potential adds to each of the indices have outperformed the potential deletes with the largest outperformance for the ASX300 Index.
  • Shorts have continued to increase positions on the potential deletes while covering their positions on the potential adds. We expect there are large pre-positions on some of the stocks now.

Who Wants SM Entertainment More? Kim Bum-Soo (Kakao) Or Bang Si-Hyuk (Hybe)?

By Douglas Kim

  • It has been reported that Kakao has hired local brokerage firms to discuss the details of another tender offer of SM Entertainment shares (at more than 130,000 won).
  • We believe that this has been the key reason why SM Entertainment’s shares rose an additional 5% on 15 February.
  • We believe that eventually Kakao Group will win the M&A fight for SM Entertainment and shares of SM could rise further in the coming weeks. 

Good Morning Japan |GOLDILOCKS?: Higher Rates, Strong USD=Higher Equities; In JP, Mr Yen Says 120

By Mark Chadwick

  • OVERSEAS. SPX Rise as Cycicals/Tech bid; Higher Rates; Strong USD, No problem !   Market seems to have concluded that higher rates+strong economy is a workable outcome.
  • JAPAN. NKY Futs +0.4% vs Cash; USDJPY weakens to 134.1; Weak Yen Narrative to dominate; Do not say to “Mr Yen” who sees 120 ;  BULLISH Inbound but priced in
  • DAILY NUGGET. BayCurrent Consulting (6532) – Still lot of tailwinds..still BULLISH.

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Feb 16
0

Daily Brief Utilities: HK Electric Investments and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Electric Investments (2638 HK): MSCI Deletion Could Mark a Bottom

HK Electric Investments (2638 HK): MSCI Deletion Could Mark a Bottom

By Brian Freitas

  • HK Electric Investments (2638 HK) will be deleted from the MSCI Hong Kong Index at the close on 28 February. This was largely expected.
  • We estimate passive MSCI trackers will need to sell 172.3m shares (US$111m; 19.1 days of ADV to trade). That is a lot. But there are pre-positions on the stock.
  • HK Electric Investments (2638 HK) has underperformed its peers and now trades at a lower price to book. There could be outperformance post the MSCI deletion.

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Feb 16
0

Daily Brief Industrials: InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, US Treasury (10 Yr Generic), Ametek Inc, Virgin Orbit Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Has Sold Before, Will Sell Again
  • Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?
  • AMETEK Inc: Major Drivers
  • First UK Mission’s Root Cause Was a Dislodged Fuel Filter; Space Is Hard

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Has Sold Before, Will Sell Again

By Sumeet Singh

  • Indigo’s co-founder Rakesh Gangwal aims to raise around US$375m via selling around 4.0% of the company.
  • He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with the other co-founder. He last sold in Sep 2022.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)
  • Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.
  • Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.

AMETEK Inc: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ametek continued to deliver excellent results with strong growth in the fourth quarter as well.
  • The company delivered an all-around beat in this quarter and has seen a positive impact in the organic growth initiatives.
  • On the other hand, the organic sales growth was 9%.

First UK Mission’s Root Cause Was a Dislodged Fuel Filter; Space Is Hard

By Water Tower Research

  • Virgin Orbit’s first international launch, after four 100% successful commercial ones, failed to deliver its payload because an in-line fuel filter was dislodged, which caused a fuel pump to run in a degraded mode.
  • Thus, the engine was starved for fuel and the rocket did not deliver its payload.
  • On the January 9 attempt, Cosmic Girl released the rocket, which began accelerating to 11,000 mph.

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Feb 16
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Adaro Energy, Endurance Gold, Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr), Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback – A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV
  • EDG: Continuing to Impress with the Drill Bit
  • Shell PLC: New Solar Energy Projects & Other Drivers
  • Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback – A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, Indonesia’s second largest coal mining business Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) announced a buyback. This follows another buyback which ended in December 2022.
  • The Sep21-Dec22 buyback bought back 1bn shares, but did not spend all the money allocated to the buyback. This new one might buy back a similar quantity.
  • Looking at Real World Float is the right frame of reference. And the stock was at a recent low vs a Peer Basket. 

EDG: Continuing to Impress with the Drill Bit

By Atrium Research

  • EDG is one of the highest grade at-surface discoveries in Canada with grade open along strike and to depth
  • Simplistic gold camp in the making – Idyllic access to infrastructure, within 10km of another permitted operation, low permitting risk in comparison to the Golden Triangle
  • Resource has potential to be several million ounces – Orogenic gold deposit confirmed over a 1.5km trend and gold anomalies spanning across the property Endurance Gold’s flagship Reliance Gold Project is the primary driver of our valuation for the Company as it is showing early-yet-strong signs of becoming a multi-million-ounce high-grade gold deposit with economical ounces just kilometers from another permitted gold operation.

Shell PLC: New Solar Energy Projects & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Shell produced a mixed set of results in the quarter, meeting the revenue expectations of Wall Street but missing out on earnings.
  • The company’s working capital situation has improved significantly and working capital was a substantial cash inflow in the quarter.
  • The improved cash flow position in the quarter enabled Shell to enhance its distributors to shareholders.

Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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