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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Utilities: HK Electric Investments and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Electric Investments (2638 HK): MSCI Deletion Could Mark a Bottom

HK Electric Investments (2638 HK): MSCI Deletion Could Mark a Bottom

By Brian Freitas

  • HK Electric Investments (2638 HK) will be deleted from the MSCI Hong Kong Index at the close on 28 February. This was largely expected.
  • We estimate passive MSCI trackers will need to sell 172.3m shares (US$111m; 19.1 days of ADV to trade). That is a lot. But there are pre-positions on the stock.
  • HK Electric Investments (2638 HK) has underperformed its peers and now trades at a lower price to book. There could be outperformance post the MSCI deletion.

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Daily Brief Industrials: InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, US Treasury (10 Yr Generic), Ametek Inc, Virgin Orbit Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Has Sold Before, Will Sell Again
  • Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?
  • AMETEK Inc: Major Drivers
  • First UK Mission’s Root Cause Was a Dislodged Fuel Filter; Space Is Hard

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Has Sold Before, Will Sell Again

By Sumeet Singh

  • Indigo’s co-founder Rakesh Gangwal aims to raise around US$375m via selling around 4.0% of the company.
  • He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with the other co-founder. He last sold in Sep 2022.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)
  • Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.
  • Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.

AMETEK Inc: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ametek continued to deliver excellent results with strong growth in the fourth quarter as well.
  • The company delivered an all-around beat in this quarter and has seen a positive impact in the organic growth initiatives.
  • On the other hand, the organic sales growth was 9%.

First UK Mission’s Root Cause Was a Dislodged Fuel Filter; Space Is Hard

By Water Tower Research

  • Virgin Orbit’s first international launch, after four 100% successful commercial ones, failed to deliver its payload because an in-line fuel filter was dislodged, which caused a fuel pump to run in a degraded mode.
  • Thus, the engine was starved for fuel and the rocket did not deliver its payload.
  • On the January 9 attempt, Cosmic Girl released the rocket, which began accelerating to 11,000 mph.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Adaro Energy, Endurance Gold, Royal Dutch Shell Plc (Adr), Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback – A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV
  • EDG: Continuing to Impress with the Drill Bit
  • Shell PLC: New Solar Energy Projects & Other Drivers
  • Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) Buyback – A Decent Chunk of 1 Year ADV

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, Indonesia’s second largest coal mining business Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) announced a buyback. This follows another buyback which ended in December 2022.
  • The Sep21-Dec22 buyback bought back 1bn shares, but did not spend all the money allocated to the buyback. This new one might buy back a similar quantity.
  • Looking at Real World Float is the right frame of reference. And the stock was at a recent low vs a Peer Basket. 

EDG: Continuing to Impress with the Drill Bit

By Atrium Research

  • EDG is one of the highest grade at-surface discoveries in Canada with grade open along strike and to depth
  • Simplistic gold camp in the making – Idyllic access to infrastructure, within 10km of another permitted operation, low permitting risk in comparison to the Golden Triangle
  • Resource has potential to be several million ounces – Orogenic gold deposit confirmed over a 1.5km trend and gold anomalies spanning across the property Endurance Gold’s flagship Reliance Gold Project is the primary driver of our valuation for the Company as it is showing early-yet-strong signs of becoming a multi-million-ounce high-grade gold deposit with economical ounces just kilometers from another permitted gold operation.

Shell PLC: New Solar Energy Projects & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Shell produced a mixed set of results in the quarter, meeting the revenue expectations of Wall Street but missing out on earnings.
  • The company’s working capital situation has improved significantly and working capital was a substantial cash inflow in the quarter.
  • The improved cash flow position in the quarter enabled Shell to enhance its distributors to shareholders.

Morning Views Asia: Vedanta Resources

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Sea Ltd, JOYY, EQS Group AG, Alphabet Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, T Mobile Us Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • [Sea (SE US, SELL, TP US$55) Target Price Change]: A Margin-Beat Quarter Followed by a Tough 2023
  • [JOYY (YY US, SELL, TP US$25.1) Target Price Change]: Price Correction to Come Amid Global Headwinds
  • EQS Group – Further delays in German legislation
  • Alphabet Inc.: The ChatGPT Effect & Impact On Ad Revenues
  • Amazon.com Inc.: Monetizing From Shopify & Other Merchants & Other Drivers
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 8-10% Decline
  • T-Mobile Inc.: Major Drivers

[Sea (SE US, SELL, TP US$55) Target Price Change]: A Margin-Beat Quarter Followed by a Tough 2023

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate SEA’s 4Q22 revenue to be largely in line with cons., while non-GAAP net loss to be narrower than cons. 
  • We see SEA to continue to experience challenges in top-line growth because of inflation, competition with TikTok, and weak performance of Free Fire. Yet, the losses will be better managed.
  • We slightly raise SE’s TP by 6% to US$55 to reflect 4Q22’s margin beat, yet maintain SELL because of the mid-to-long-term challenges.

[JOYY (YY US, SELL, TP US$25.1) Target Price Change]: Price Correction to Come Amid Global Headwinds

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate JOYY’s 4Q22 top line/bottom line to miss cons. by (3%)/(12%), as TikTok’s influence in major market expands. 
  • We suggest that a much slower recovery in 1Q23 does not bode well for its full year outlook. Our top line and bottom line are (2%)/(14%) lower than cons.
  • Maintain SELL and cut TP to US$25.1, implying 12.8X PE in 2023.

EQS Group – Further delays in German legislation

By Edison Investment Research

EQS has issued a year-end trading update, showing that it achieved its targets for number of new customers and for annually recurring revenues. However, the continuing delays to the full implementation of the whistleblowing legislation in the key German market mean that the group has missed its previously published targets for revenue and for EBITDA by €1.5m and €1.3m respectively. Guidance for FY23 now reflects an abundance of caution on the likely timing of the legislative stimulus, assuming that the law is not transposed until Q323. Our new forecasts align with the lower end of the guided range for now. Despite the delays, the shares continue to trade well below the level indicated by the DCF.


Alphabet Inc.: The ChatGPT Effect & Impact On Ad Revenues

By Baptista Research

  • Alphabet is going through a tough period.
  • The company’s stock is losing value given the expected impact of the popularity of ChatGPT on its Search revenues.
  • We downgrade the stock of Alphabet and give it a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Amazon.com Inc.: Monetizing From Shopify & Other Merchants & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Amazon delivered a mixed result as its worldwide net sales grew by 12% year over year which was above the expectation of Wall Street.
  • The company worked hard to secure millions of deals and offer low prices for customers this quarter, including its foremost Prime Early Access Sale and the Thanksgiving.
  • In the quarter, Amazon customers spent more on everyday essentials and shifted to lower-priced and value brands in electronics.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 8-10% Decline

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • On 7 November 2022 we published a bullish TSS / tactical recommendation in TSM US. It was trading at 62.49. TSM US rallied 13.4% in 3 days. 
  • On 15 February 2023 TSM US peaked at a new Q4/Q1 uptrend high of 98.99 amid similar extreme ST momentum failure and quickly reversed.
  • Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the high and justifies a further 8-10% decline in the coming 1-2 weeks.

T-Mobile Inc.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • T-Mobile has recently been in the news for suffering from a major network outage affecting around 83,000 customers.
  • T-Mobile added many new customers but the company ended Q4 on a mixed note.
  • Their financial results also enabled them to launch share repurchases earlier than anticipated and speed up network rollouts.

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Daily Brief Industrials: InterGlobe Aviation Ltd, US Treasury (10 Yr Generic), Ametek Inc, Virgin Orbit Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Has Sold Before, Will Sell Again
  • Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?
  • AMETEK Inc: Major Drivers
  • First UK Mission’s Root Cause Was a Dislodged Fuel Filter; Space Is Hard

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Has Sold Before, Will Sell Again

By Sumeet Singh

  • Indigo’s co-founder Rakesh Gangwal aims to raise around US$375m via selling around 4.0% of the company.
  • He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with the other co-founder. He last sold in Sep 2022.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)
  • Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.
  • Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.

AMETEK Inc: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ametek continued to deliver excellent results with strong growth in the fourth quarter as well.
  • The company delivered an all-around beat in this quarter and has seen a positive impact in the organic growth initiatives.
  • On the other hand, the organic sales growth was 9%.

First UK Mission’s Root Cause Was a Dislodged Fuel Filter; Space Is Hard

By Water Tower Research

  • Virgin Orbit’s first international launch, after four 100% successful commercial ones, failed to deliver its payload because an in-line fuel filter was dislodged, which caused a fuel pump to run in a degraded mode.
  • Thus, the engine was starved for fuel and the rocket did not deliver its payload.
  • On the January 9 attempt, Cosmic Girl released the rocket, which began accelerating to 11,000 mph.

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Daily Brief Health Care: PolyNovo Ltd, Ryman Healthcare, Pharmaessentia Corp, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc, Pixium Vision Sa, Novo Nordisk A/S, Sonoscape Medical Corp, Catalent Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete
  • Ryman Healthcare Renounceable Entitlement Offer – Dilutive, but Would Take at the Low End
  • Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT): Besremi Starts 2023 on Strong Note; Geography Expansion Continues
  • Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.: Acquisition Of The Binding Site Group & Other Drivers
  • Pixium Vision – End of ESGO arrangement comes as no surprise
  • Novo Nordisk A/S.: Major Drivers
  • 2023 High Conviction Update: Sonoscape Medical (300633.CH) – High Growth Is Expected to Continue
  • Catalent Inc: An M&A Arbitrage Opportunity? What Could Be A Fair Value For The Danaher Acquisition? (02/23)

S&P/​​​​​​​ASX Index Rebalance Preview: Review Period (Nearly) Complete

By Brian Freitas

  • We currently see 1 change for the ASX20 Index, 2 changes for the ASX100 Index, 4 changes for the ASX200 Index, 10 adds/7 deletes for the ASX300 Index in March.
  • On average, the potential adds to each of the indices have outperformed the potential deletes with the largest outperformance for the ASX300 Index.
  • Shorts have continued to increase positions on the potential deletes while covering their positions on the potential adds. We expect there are large pre-positions on some of the stocks now.

Ryman Healthcare Renounceable Entitlement Offer – Dilutive, but Would Take at the Low End

By Ethan Aw

  • Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ) aims to raise around US$569m (NZ$903m) via a renounceable entitlement offer. 
  • The use of proceeds will be to reset the firm’s capital structure and reduce its gearing.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT): Besremi Starts 2023 on Strong Note; Geography Expansion Continues

By Tina Banerjee

  • Pharmaessentia Corp (6446 TT) recorded revenue of NT$232M (+259% YoY) for its sole marketed product Besremi in January 2023. For 2022, Besremi reported revenue of NT$2.9B (+339% YoY).
  • Thus far, Besremi received approval in US, EU, Switzerland, Israel, South Korea, Macao, and Taiwan. Besremi is expected to obtain approval in Japan and China in 2Q23 and 1Q24, respectively.
  • Besremi is in phase 3 trial for essential thrombocythemia, which is a myeloproliferative neoplasm characterized by an overproduction of platelets in the blood resulting from a genetic mutation.

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.: Acquisition Of The Binding Site Group & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Thermo Fisher produced a solid set of results in the fourth quarter, with impressive growth in the low teens for the quarter and mid-teens for the entire year.
  • The management saw a decent growth in industrial and produced significant year-over-year growth in the businesses of mass spectrometry, chromatography, and electron microscopy.
  • Overall, we give Thermo Fisher a ‘Hold’ rating with a revised target price.

Pixium Vision – End of ESGO arrangement comes as no surprise

By Edison Investment Research

Pixium has terminated its convertible note financing arrangement with the European Select Growth Opportunities Fund (ESGO) without any penalties. The termination is not surprising, given the arrangement required a minimum share price of €0.25 for Pixium to be permitted to issue any additional convertible notes beyond the initial 550 (representing €5.5m; each note had a nominal value of €10,000) that formed part of the first (and only) tranche issued. Pixium’s share price had remained below this minimum price threshold since August 2022 and the company acknowledged in October 2022 that it was not able to draw further tranches. Pixium reiterates that it is funded until the end of Q223 and is exploring various mechanisms to secure its cash flow necessary to pursue its strategic and development objectives.


Novo Nordisk A/S.: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Novo Nordisk produced a double-digit operational profit and strong revenue growth, driven by excellent commercial execution in their therapy areas and critical countries.
  • They also started the first two Phase trials based on the Dicerna in the siRNA technology platform.
  • Besides that, Novo anticipates starting a Phase IIIb trial with Ziltivekimab in the first half of 2023 to treat heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.

2023 High Conviction Update: Sonoscape Medical (300633.CH) – High Growth Is Expected to Continue

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We are optimistic about Sonoscape’s 2022 annual results, which was an important turning year. Due to policy catalyst/China reopening, Sonoscape would maintain high growth in 2023, with relatively high certainty.
  • Sonoscape has established a high moat in the field of soft endoscopes. Even if new manufacturers enter this market, they are hard to affect the market pattern in short term.
  • Although the current valuation is not cheap, based on our forecast of its business lines, there’s still growth space in valuation. Under positive momentum, this stock can be traded repeatedly.

Catalent Inc: An M&A Arbitrage Opportunity? What Could Be A Fair Value For The Danaher Acquisition? (02/23)

By Baptista Research

  • This is a special, one-time report on Catalent, a leading contract manufacturer and provider of advanced delivery technologies, development, and manufacturing solutions for drugs, biologics, cell and gene therapies, and consumer health products.
  • This report aims to examine the factors that could influence Catalent’s valuation and provide an unbiased assessment of the company’s worth.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

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Daily Brief Financials: Rakuten Bank, iShares MSCI Emerging Markets, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index, Target Healthcare REIT PLC, Deutsche Beteiligungs AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Rakuten Bank IPO Early Look – The Positives – Has Grown Fast over the past Few Years
  • EM Thematic Short
  • EQD | KOSPI2 Index: Reloading on Upside Calls
  • Target Healthcare REIT – Income progress mitigates pressure on valuation
  • Deutsche Beteiligungs – Robust exit activity in Q123

Rakuten Bank IPO Early Look – The Positives – Has Grown Fast over the past Few Years

By Sumeet Singh

  • Rakuten Bank, the online banking arm of Rakuten Inc (4755 JP), aims to raise around US$500m (estimated) in its Japan listing in April 2023. 
  • RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Mar 2023, it had 13.39m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.6tn. 
  • In this note we take an early look at the IPO and talk about the positive aspects of its past performance.

EM Thematic Short

By Thomas Schroeder

  • EEM topped ahead of the DXY 101 bottom (lead) showing strong synergy with our bull DXY and bullish yield charts from last week.
  • Bull divergence implies a 2-3 month USD and yield up cycle is in store. EEM rising channel breakdown due.
  • HK was the first to crack trendline support. Korea is a weak link. India is one of the clearer shorts. Australia, Taiwan and then Japan are set to roll over.

EQD | KOSPI2 Index: Reloading on Upside Calls

By Simon Harris

  • KOSPI2 Index trading off the highs but supported by the 200-dma
  • Implied vols are trading cheap offering a good entry point
  • Options continue to be priced cheaply and we look at simple upside plays

Target Healthcare REIT – Income progress mitigates pressure on valuation

By Edison Investment Research

For Q223, Target Healthcare REIT declared a second quarterly DPS of 1.69p, supported by inflation-linked rental growth and improving rent collection, which are in turn protected by fixed costs on 96% of borrowings. Yield widening across the broad property sector affected the portfolio’s property valuations, although the effect was significantly mitigated by the quality of Target’s portfolio and long-term, indexed leases.


Deutsche Beteiligungs – Robust exit activity in Q123

By Edison Investment Research

Deutsche Beteiligungs (DBAG) posted a 7% increase in NAV per share in Q123 (ending 31 December 2022), supported by a €23.9m positive effect related to the higher earnings of portfolio companies, mostly due to the shift from 2022 to 2023 budgeted earnings in their carrying values. This was further strengthened by €36.5m valuation tailwinds from higher multiples amid the rally in public equities in the last quarter of 2022, as well as the recognition of agreed disposal prices (most notably for BTV Multimedia). DBAG’s shares trade at a 6% discount to NAV, while historically they have traded at a premium (6% on average in the last five years), reflecting the value of the fund services business.


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Daily Brief Consumer: MatsukiyoCocokara, Oriental Watch, S.M.Entertainment Co, Japan Tobacco, Morinaga Milk Industry Co, Star Entertainment Group, SOCAR, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • The MatsuKiyoCocokara (3088) February Flow Show
  • Oriental Watch: Management Meet, HK Slow + China Resilient, 50% of Mkt Cap Cash + 15% Yield
  • Who Wants SM Entertainment More? Kim Bum-Soo (Kakao) Or Bang Si-Hyuk (Hybe)?
  • Japan Tobacco: An Activist Targeting Torii Pharmaceutical, Turns to JT to Fulfil Their Wishes
  • Morinaga Milk (2264 JP)’s Overseas Expansion
  • Star Entertainment: Imminent Fund Raising?
  • Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Entertaining Known Unknowns
  • SoCar Lock-Up – US$242m Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiry, Expect Scattered Selling
  • Comparability of Disclosures Between Companies Will Enhance Content of Sustainability Information
  • LVMH: New Menswear Creative Director & Price Increases in Europe and China at LV

The MatsuKiyoCocokara (3088) February Flow Show

By Travis Lundy

  • MatsukiyoCocokara (3088 JP) has run up quite well in the past year, rising strongly and outperforming Peers significantly. It has been the avatar of Inbound Rebound hopes and dreams.
  • Over that time, forward EPS expectations have also improved, but not as much as price. MatsukiyoCocokara used to be cheap to peers on forward PER. Now it is not.
  • 28 Feb sees an MSCI inclusion trade to swing 7% of shares from active to passive. Understanding where those come from is key.

Oriental Watch: Management Meet, HK Slow + China Resilient, 50% of Mkt Cap Cash + 15% Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • We met with the management of Oriental Watch (398 HK).  HK demand continues to be sluggish, while China sales were resilient with single-digit SSSG growth. 
  • The company will continue with its conservative policy of not expanding as Rolex/Patek restrict watch supply. It will only foray into boutique expansions if KPIs on return/brands etc., are met.
  • With its generous >100% payout ratio, the stock trades at a 15% dividend yield based on our estimated 6.9x FY23 PE, with >50% of its market capitalization in net cash.

Who Wants SM Entertainment More? Kim Bum-Soo (Kakao) Or Bang Si-Hyuk (Hybe)?

By Douglas Kim

  • It has been reported that Kakao has hired local brokerage firms to discuss the details of another tender offer of SM Entertainment shares (at more than 130,000 won).
  • We believe that this has been the key reason why SM Entertainment’s shares rose an additional 5% on 15 February.
  • We believe that eventually Kakao Group will win the M&A fight for SM Entertainment and shares of SM could rise further in the coming weeks. 

Japan Tobacco: An Activist Targeting Torii Pharmaceutical, Turns to JT to Fulfil Their Wishes

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Japan Tobacco (2914 JP)’s 4Q22 results were stronger than anticipated yet again with revenue and OP surpassing consensus by 4.3% and 35.2% respectively through selling price increments.
  • 2023 guidance looks a bit disappointing, with the company guiding adjusted OP at ¥667bn in 2023 compared to ¥729bn in the previous year, expecting an unfavourable foreign exchange movement.
  • But the highlight these days was the proposal by the activist investor LIM Advisors to dispose JT’s share ownership in Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP).

Morinaga Milk (2264 JP)’s Overseas Expansion

By David Blennerhassett

  • Last week, Japanese dairy play Morinaga Milk Industry Co (2264 JP) acquired a soy-based food company in the US and a baby formula distribution company in Vietnam
  • These acquisitions are in keeping with Moringa’s medium-term business plan (to Mar-2025) to achieve an overseas sale ratio of 13%, compared to 8.7% last year.
  • 3Q23 results were also announced with 9M23 sales and operating profit of ¥405.2bn and ¥20.5bn, a change of +16.8% and -7.2% yoy.

Star Entertainment: Imminent Fund Raising?

By David Blennerhassett

  • In its earnings update, troubled Aussie casino operator Star Entertainment (SGR AU) said revenue was down 1% on pre-COVID levels, and expects FY23 EBITDA of $330mn-$360mn vs A$525mn in FY19.
  • But the big news was the possible $400mn to $1.6bn non-cash impairment charge in relation to disciplinary fines from regulators and new casino duties. 
  • Shares tanked and are currently trading around a lifetime low. One for the brave or one to ignore?

Star Entertainment (SGR AU): Entertaining Known Unknowns

By Arun George

  • Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU) scored an own goal by failing to provide an update on the balance sheet in the update on 13 February. The results are next week.   
  • There is a whirlwind of uncertainty surrounding potential fines and Star is in desperate need to recapitalise its balance sheet to avoid breaching covenants. 
  • Our leverage scenarios suggest an equity raise of A$250-500 million is required. Despite the share price fall, we would steer clear until the details of its equity raise are disclosed.

SoCar Lock-Up – US$242m Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiry, Expect Scattered Selling

By Ethan Aw

  • SOCAR (403550 KS) was listed on 22nd Aug 2022, where it raised US$78m in its Korea IPO. Its six-month lockup will expire on 21st Feb 2023. 
  • SoCar is a Korean car sharing business which aims to become an all-in-one mobility solutions provider beyond car sharing, with approximately 78% domestic market share in the car sharing space.
  • Coming up for six-month lockup expiry are the firm’s pre-IPO investors, but the bulk of the shares unlocked will come from its strategic investors.

Comparability of Disclosures Between Companies Will Enhance Content of Sustainability Information

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since the revised Corporate Governance Code in 2021 requires TCFD disclosure for prime market listed companies, TCFD disclosure is expected to expand to all prime listed market companies going forward.
  • Most companies do not have a roadmap for meeting their emissions targets, and there is a need to look carefully at whether their numerical targets and timelines are reasonable.
  • Until now, companies that preceded TCFD disclosures have mainly disclosed information in integrated reports. However, attention will focus on how these information will be disclosed in the Annual Securities Report.

LVMH: New Menswear Creative Director & Price Increases in Europe and China at LV

By Alexis Dwek

  • Pharrell Williams named new menswear creative director for Louis Vuitton
  • Price increases in Europe (+4%-6%), and in China (+20%) at Louis Vuitton
  • Small incremental positive to our recent investment case on LVMH, long-term winner

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Daily Brief ESG: Comparability of Disclosures Between Companies Will Enhance Content of Sustainability Information and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Comparability of Disclosures Between Companies Will Enhance Content of Sustainability Information

Comparability of Disclosures Between Companies Will Enhance Content of Sustainability Information

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Since the revised Corporate Governance Code in 2021 requires TCFD disclosure for prime market listed companies, TCFD disclosure is expected to expand to all prime listed market companies going forward.
  • Most companies do not have a roadmap for meeting their emissions targets, and there is a need to look carefully at whether their numerical targets and timelines are reasonable.
  • Until now, companies that preceded TCFD disclosures have mainly disclosed information in integrated reports. However, attention will focus on how these information will be disclosed in the Annual Securities Report.

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Daily Brief ECM: Rakuten Bank IPO Early Look – The Positives – Has Grown Fast over the past Few Years and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Rakuten Bank IPO Early Look – The Positives – Has Grown Fast over the past Few Years
  • Ryman Healthcare Renounceable Entitlement Offer – Dilutive, but Would Take at the Low End
  • Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Has Sold Before, Will Sell Again
  • SoCar Lock-Up – US$242m Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiry, Expect Scattered Selling

Rakuten Bank IPO Early Look – The Positives – Has Grown Fast over the past Few Years

By Sumeet Singh

  • Rakuten Bank, the online banking arm of Rakuten Inc (4755 JP), aims to raise around US$500m (estimated) in its Japan listing in April 2023. 
  • RB is the largest internet bank in Japan, by number of accounts. As of Mar 2023, it had 13.39m deposit accounts with a total deposit base of JPY8.6tn. 
  • In this note we take an early look at the IPO and talk about the positive aspects of its past performance.

Ryman Healthcare Renounceable Entitlement Offer – Dilutive, but Would Take at the Low End

By Ethan Aw

  • Ryman Healthcare (RYM NZ) aims to raise around US$569m (NZ$903m) via a renounceable entitlement offer. 
  • The use of proceeds will be to reset the firm’s capital structure and reduce its gearing.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – Has Sold Before, Will Sell Again

By Sumeet Singh

  • Indigo’s co-founder Rakesh Gangwal aims to raise around US$375m via selling around 4.0% of the company.
  • He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with the other co-founder. He last sold in Sep 2022.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

SoCar Lock-Up – US$242m Pre-IPO Lock-Up Expiry, Expect Scattered Selling

By Ethan Aw

  • SOCAR (403550 KS) was listed on 22nd Aug 2022, where it raised US$78m in its Korea IPO. Its six-month lockup will expire on 21st Feb 2023. 
  • SoCar is a Korean car sharing business which aims to become an all-in-one mobility solutions provider beyond car sharing, with approximately 78% domestic market share in the car sharing space.
  • Coming up for six-month lockup expiry are the firm’s pre-IPO investors, but the bulk of the shares unlocked will come from its strategic investors.

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Sign Up for Free

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