Smartkarma Daily Briefs

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
The highest spreads are 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU), Link Administration (LNK AU).
The lowest gross spreads are Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP), Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU), Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP), Giordano International (709 HK), Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK).

ANZ to Acquire Suncorp Bank: Equity Raise & Regulatory Approvals

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU) has announced that it is acquiring Suncorp Bank from Suncorp (SUN AU) for an all cash consideration of A$4.9bn.
ANZ will fund the Suncorp Bank acquisition by a fully underwritten 1:15 pro rata accelerated renounceable entitlement offer to raise A$3.5bn at A$18.9/share, a 12% discount to TERP.
A small increase in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for the mortgage lending market will make it difficult for ACCC to deny approval for the acquisition.

Weekly Deals Digest (17 Jul): WCP, BYD, Link, Genting Singapore, DTAC/True, AOF, ResApp

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea and Chinese ADRs.
On the ECM front, Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) listed its H Shares, WCP (WCP KS) plans to launch a KRW900 billion (US$692 million) IPO in August.
Event-Driven developments at Link Administration (LNK AU), DTAC/True, BYD (1211 HK), Genting Singapore (GENS SP), Tassal (TGR AU), Resapp Health (RAP AU), Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK).

S&P/ASX200: West African Resources (WAF) Replaces Uniti (UWL) At 21 July Close

The Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) Scheme Meeting was held Friday, approving both General Scheme Resolution and Rollover Shares Scheme unanimously. The MBD Bidco deal is done.
Friday after the close, the S&P DJI Global Index team announced that Uniti would be deleted from the ASX200 21 July at the close.
Gold miner West African Resources (WAF AU) was chosen as the replacement. It’s a decent-sized inclusion and should have been well-flagged last week but may have been ignored.

GSK Spinoff Haleon (HLN UK) Is Biggest New Euro Listing In 10yrs – Index Implications and Overhang

GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK LN) shareholders on 6 July overwhelmingly approved the long-awaited demerger of its GSK Consumer Healthcare unit newly-named Haleon (HLN LN) earlier this month.
While not originally universally-desired (Elliott wanted a sale), it was overwhelmingly approved. Haleon lists Monday 18 July with a £40+bn valuation resulting in FTSE 100 and Stoxx Europe 600 changes.
GSK investors get 1 share of Haleon for every share of GSK held. Post-demerger, the public owns 55%, Pfizer ~32%, GSK ~13%. Lockup ends 10 November. There will be overhang.

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Jul 18

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK): 1Q22 Result: Double-Digit Revenue Growth; One-Off Charges Drag Profit and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK): 1Q22 Result: Double-Digit Revenue Growth; One-Off Charges Drag Profit
Fast Retailing: Guidance Upgraded, Yet The Upside Seems Limited Due to Stretched Valuations
China Internet Weekly (18Jul2022): Tencent, Alibaba, Kingsoft Office, Miss Fresh

CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK): 1Q22 Result: Double-Digit Revenue Growth; One-Off Charges Drag Profit

By Tina Banerjee

CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) reported Q1 results, with revenue growth of 17% y/y to RMB8 billion, driven by a 15% y/y growth in finished drugs revenue.
Oncology, with 34% contribution to finished drug revenue remained the main growth engine. Oncology revenue grew 15% y/y. The company has launched one new innovative oncology drug in Q1.
CSPC’s net profit declined 5% y/y to RMB1.40 billion, dragged by fair-value losses of RMB133 million on its financial assets. Without considering one-off charge, net profit would have increased 10%.

Fast Retailing: Guidance Upgraded, Yet The Upside Seems Limited Due to Stretched Valuations

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

With discounting delayed, Fast Retailing (9983 JP)’s 3QFY22 was a surprise to the upside as its OP grew 36.5% YoY to ¥81.8bn (consensus:¥65.8bn) to exceed the pre-COVID level by 9.7%.
Nevertheless, the upside seems limited in the short-term, with shares already trading at a stretched valuation of 22.2x consensus FY+2 OP, compared to the historical median of 15.5x.
At around ¥290.0bn FY+1 OP, a fair price should be somewhere around ¥58,000-60,000, which implies a downside of around 25%.

China Internet Weekly (18Jul2022): Tencent, Alibaba, Kingsoft Office, Miss Fresh

By Ming Lu

Tencent’s games gave only three hours a week to juveniles in school summer vacation.
Tencent and NetEase did not get new game licenses for the third time this year.
Kingsoft censors files on users’ computers, which will benefit Microsoft Office.

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Jul 18

Daily Brief Macro: Three Catalysts That Could Spark A “Rip Your Face Off” Rally and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Three Catalysts That Could Spark A “Rip Your Face Off” Rally
The Fed Has Become the Bull in a China Shop

Three Catalysts That Could Spark A “Rip Your Face Off” Rally

By Cam Hui

The U.S. stock market appears to be highly resilient in the face of bad news.
We outline three catalysts that have the potential to change the macro narrative from bearish to bullish and spark a “rip your face off” rally.
While none of these factors are specifically actionable, investors should be aware of possible asymmetry of risks and behave accordingly.

The Fed Has Become the Bull in a China Shop

By Cam Hui

The Fed appears intent on tightening until something breaks. In effect, the Fed is behaving like the proverbial bull in a china shop.
Even as Fed speakers assert their determination to bring down inflation, the market is signaling growing stress.
The combination of a falling 10-year Treasury yield and rising HY spreads is a possible lethal combination for financial stability.

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Jul 18

Daily Brief Australia: Link Administration, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), West African Resources and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (18 Jul) – Link Admin, AOF, DTAC/True, Ramsay Health, ResApp, Infomedia
ANZ to Acquire Suncorp Bank: Equity Raise & Regulatory Approvals
S&P/ASX200: West African Resources (WAF) Replaces Uniti (UWL) At 21 July Close

Merger Arb Mondays (18 Jul) – Link Admin, AOF, DTAC/True, Ramsay Health, ResApp, Infomedia

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
The highest spreads are 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU), Link Administration (LNK AU).
The lowest gross spreads are Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP), Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU), Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP), Giordano International (709 HK), Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK).

ANZ to Acquire Suncorp Bank: Equity Raise & Regulatory Approvals

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU) has announced that it is acquiring Suncorp Bank from Suncorp (SUN AU) for an all cash consideration of A$4.9bn.
ANZ will fund the Suncorp Bank acquisition by a fully underwritten 1:15 pro rata accelerated renounceable entitlement offer to raise A$3.5bn at A$18.9/share, a 12% discount to TERP.
A small increase in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for the mortgage lending market will make it difficult for ACCC to deny approval for the acquisition.

S&P/ASX200: West African Resources (WAF) Replaces Uniti (UWL) At 21 July Close

The Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) Scheme Meeting was held Friday, approving both General Scheme Resolution and Rollover Shares Scheme unanimously. The MBD Bidco deal is done.
Friday after the close, the S&P DJI Global Index team announced that Uniti would be deleted from the ASX200 21 July at the close.
Gold miner West African Resources (WAF AU) was chosen as the replacement. It’s a decent-sized inclusion and should have been well-flagged last week but may have been ignored.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 18

Daily Brief Japan: Fast Retailing, IR Japan Holdings Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Fast Retailing: Guidance Upgraded, Yet The Upside Seems Limited Due to Stretched Valuations
Governance of Companies in Which the Founder Owns Majority of the Shares Should Also Be Discussed

Fast Retailing: Guidance Upgraded, Yet The Upside Seems Limited Due to Stretched Valuations

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

With discounting delayed, Fast Retailing (9983 JP)’s 3QFY22 was a surprise to the upside as its OP grew 36.5% YoY to ¥81.8bn (consensus:¥65.8bn) to exceed the pre-COVID level by 9.7%.
Nevertheless, the upside seems limited in the short-term, with shares already trading at a stretched valuation of 22.2x consensus FY+2 OP, compared to the historical median of 15.5x.
At around ¥290.0bn FY+1 OP, a fair price should be somewhere around ¥58,000-60,000, which implies a downside of around 25%.

Governance of Companies in Which the Founder Owns Majority of the Shares Should Also Be Discussed

By Aki Matsumoto

I hope that the investigation by SESC will lead to the establishment of compliance system for these IR vendors, although IR vendors have been left unchecked by insider trading regulations.
Apart from this issue, there is much room for discussion on the issue of governance for a company listed in which the founder owns more than 50% of the shares.
This is the same problem that occurs with parent-subsidiary listings. For increasing the listed companies, TSE has permitted the listing of companies in which the founder owns majority of shares.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 18

Daily Brief China: BYD, CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, Tencent, Central China Real Estate, Cryofocus Medtech (Shanghai) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Weekly Deals Digest (17 Jul): WCP, BYD, Link, Genting Singapore, DTAC/True, AOF, ResApp
CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK): 1Q22 Result: Double-Digit Revenue Growth; One-Off Charges Drag Profit
China Internet Weekly (18Jul2022): Tencent, Alibaba, Kingsoft Office, Miss Fresh
Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, China South City
Pre-IPO Cryofocus Medtech (Shanghai) – The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

Weekly Deals Digest (17 Jul): WCP, BYD, Link, Genting Singapore, DTAC/True, AOF, ResApp

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea and Chinese ADRs.
On the ECM front, Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) listed its H Shares, WCP (WCP KS) plans to launch a KRW900 billion (US$692 million) IPO in August.
Event-Driven developments at Link Administration (LNK AU), DTAC/True, BYD (1211 HK), Genting Singapore (GENS SP), Tassal (TGR AU), Resapp Health (RAP AU), Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK).

CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK): 1Q22 Result: Double-Digit Revenue Growth; One-Off Charges Drag Profit

By Tina Banerjee

CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK) reported Q1 results, with revenue growth of 17% y/y to RMB8 billion, driven by a 15% y/y growth in finished drugs revenue.
Oncology, with 34% contribution to finished drug revenue remained the main growth engine. Oncology revenue grew 15% y/y. The company has launched one new innovative oncology drug in Q1.
CSPC’s net profit declined 5% y/y to RMB1.40 billion, dragged by fair-value losses of RMB133 million on its financial assets. Without considering one-off charge, net profit would have increased 10%.

China Internet Weekly (18Jul2022): Tencent, Alibaba, Kingsoft Office, Miss Fresh

By Ming Lu

Tencent’s games gave only three hours a week to juveniles in school summer vacation.
Tencent and NetEase did not get new game licenses for the third time this year.
Kingsoft censors files on users’ computers, which will benefit Microsoft Office.

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, China South City

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Central China Securities
China South City

Pre-IPO Cryofocus Medtech (Shanghai) – The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The cryoablation market accounts for about 1/3 of the total tumor ablation market overseas, while this percentage is less than 1/10 in China, indicating promising growth potential in the future.
Cryofocus Medtech (Shanghai) (CFM HK)’s products and candidates do have technical advantages, offering more choices for patients and doctors.
However, the commercialization outlook remains to be seen because of the potential large price reduction after entering national medical insurance coverage and the uncertainties over acceptance by patients and doctors.

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Jul 18

Most Read: Genting Singapore, West African Resources, Link Administration, BYD, Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), WCP, Haleon and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Punters Take A Gamble on Genting Singapore
Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: TW Div+, TPX, KOSPI2, KQ150, NIFTY100, ASX200, CPSE, HFCAA, HDFCB
Last Week in Event SPACE: BYD, Astra/United Tractor, Japan Passive, AGL, Genting Singapore
Merger Arb Mondays (18 Jul) – Link Admin, AOF, DTAC/True, Ramsay Health, ResApp, Infomedia
ECM Weekly (17th Jul 2022) – Tianqi, Emperador, Soosan, SoCar, WCP, Deewin, Bharat FIH, BYD
ANZ to Acquire Suncorp Bank: Equity Raise & Regulatory Approvals
Weekly Deals Digest (17 Jul): WCP, BYD, Link, Genting Singapore, DTAC/True, AOF, ResApp
WCP Passive Flow Analysis: KOSDAQ 150 Early Entry & Local Battery ETFs
S&P/ASX200: West African Resources (WAF) Replaces Uniti (UWL) At 21 July Close
GSK Spinoff Haleon (HLN UK) Is Biggest New Euro Listing In 10yrs – Index Implications and Overhang

Punters Take A Gamble on Genting Singapore

By David Blennerhassett

Bloomberg is reporting Genting Singapore (GENS SP) has been attracting suitors, including MGM Resorts International (MGM US).
With Macau all-but emulating a Shanghai-style lockdown, including the recent shuttering of all casinos, large global casino operators will be looking to diversify their revenue base.
But with Singapore potentially emerging as Asia’s go-to gaming destination going forward, it’s unlikely the Lim family will exit their Genting flagship.

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: TW Div+, TPX, KOSPI2, KQ150, NIFTY100, ASX200, CPSE, HFCAA, HDFCB

The FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index is interesting since there are multiple moving parts and is not widely tracked. We take an early look at potential changes in December.
West African Resources (WAF AU) will replace Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) in the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) at the close of trading on 21 July.
There have been some large inflows to the Vanguard FTSE Pacific ETF (VPL US) in the last few weeks.

Last Week in Event SPACE: BYD, Astra/United Tractor, Japan Passive, AGL, Genting Singapore

By David Blennerhassett

Berkshire appears set to exit BYD (1211 HK) partially or in full. But why signal to market well in advance?
United Tractors (UNTR IJ)‘s buyback should be impactful. They could do another one afterwards as they have lots of cash. This is a raging buy. Buy now. With both hands.
The BOJ was expected to change its ETF allocations. It stopped buying Nikkei 225 and JPX Nikkei 400 ETFs. As the world moves more to passive, expect float to decrease.

Merger Arb Mondays (18 Jul) – Link Admin, AOF, DTAC/True, Ramsay Health, ResApp, Infomedia

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations covered by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
The highest spreads are 21Vianet Group (VNET US), Alliance Aviation Services (AQZ AU), Ramsay Health Care (RHC AU), Australian Unity Office Fund (AOF AU), Link Administration (LNK AU).
The lowest gross spreads are Hwa Hong Corp (HWAH SP), Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU), Excelpoint Technology (EXLP SP), Giordano International (709 HK), Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK).

ECM Weekly (17th Jul 2022) – Tianqi, Emperador, Soosan, SoCar, WCP, Deewin, Bharat FIH, BYD

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
Tianqi’s soggy debut in Hong Kong despite its wide discount will probably put Hong Kong ECM back in snooze mode for a while
There were no major placements this week and its likely to remain that was as we approach the half-yearly results season.

ANZ to Acquire Suncorp Bank: Equity Raise & Regulatory Approvals

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) (ANZ AU) has announced that it is acquiring Suncorp Bank from Suncorp (SUN AU) for an all cash consideration of A$4.9bn.
ANZ will fund the Suncorp Bank acquisition by a fully underwritten 1:15 pro rata accelerated renounceable entitlement offer to raise A$3.5bn at A$18.9/share, a 12% discount to TERP.
A small increase in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for the mortgage lending market will make it difficult for ACCC to deny approval for the acquisition.

Weekly Deals Digest (17 Jul): WCP, BYD, Link, Genting Singapore, DTAC/True, AOF, ResApp

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea and Chinese ADRs.
On the ECM front, Tianqi Lithium (9696 HK) listed its H Shares, WCP (WCP KS) plans to launch a KRW900 billion (US$692 million) IPO in August.
Event-Driven developments at Link Administration (LNK AU), DTAC/True, BYD (1211 HK), Genting Singapore (GENS SP), Tassal (TGR AU), Resapp Health (RAP AU), Dongzheng Automotive Finance (2718 HK).

WCP Passive Flow Analysis: KOSDAQ 150 Early Entry & Local Battery ETFs

By Sanghyun Park

WCP will enter the KOSDAQ 150 with a passive inflow of about 530K shares, 1.5% of SO, at the close on December 8.
WCP will be added to the TIGER ETF on October 14 with a passive inflow of about 345K shares, 1.0% of SO, at the close on October 14.
From a flow trading perspective, the flow volume is certainly substantial enough to design a passive flow trading setup in conjunction with the lockup release schedule.

S&P/ASX200: West African Resources (WAF) Replaces Uniti (UWL) At 21 July Close

The Uniti Group Ltd (UWL AU) Scheme Meeting was held Friday, approving both General Scheme Resolution and Rollover Shares Scheme unanimously. The MBD Bidco deal is done.
Friday after the close, the S&P DJI Global Index team announced that Uniti would be deleted from the ASX200 21 July at the close.
Gold miner West African Resources (WAF AU) was chosen as the replacement. It’s a decent-sized inclusion and should have been well-flagged last week but may have been ignored.

GSK Spinoff Haleon (HLN UK) Is Biggest New Euro Listing In 10yrs – Index Implications and Overhang

GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK LN) shareholders on 6 July overwhelmingly approved the long-awaited demerger of its GSK Consumer Healthcare unit newly-named Haleon (HLN LN) earlier this month.
While not originally universally-desired (Elliott wanted a sale), it was overwhelmingly approved. Haleon lists Monday 18 July with a £40+bn valuation resulting in FTSE 100 and Stoxx Europe 600 changes.
GSK investors get 1 share of Haleon for every share of GSK held. Post-demerger, the public owns 55%, Pfizer ~32%, GSK ~13%. Lockup ends 10 November. There will be overhang.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Jul 18

Daily Brief Industrials: IR Japan Holdings Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Governance of Companies in Which the Founder Owns Majority of the Shares Should Also Be Discussed

Governance of Companies in Which the Founder Owns Majority of the Shares Should Also Be Discussed

By Aki Matsumoto

I hope that the investigation by SESC will lead to the establishment of compliance system for these IR vendors, although IR vendors have been left unchecked by insider trading regulations.
Apart from this issue, there is much room for discussion on the issue of governance for a company listed in which the founder owns more than 50% of the shares.
This is the same problem that occurs with parent-subsidiary listings. For increasing the listed companies, TSE has permitted the listing of companies in which the founder owns majority of shares.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 18

Daily Brief Industrials: IR Japan Holdings Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

Governance of Companies in Which the Founder Owns Majority of the Shares Should Also Be Discussed

Governance of Companies in Which the Founder Owns Majority of the Shares Should Also Be Discussed

By Aki Matsumoto

I hope that the investigation by SESC will lead to the establishment of compliance system for these IR vendors, although IR vendors have been left unchecked by insider trading regulations.
Apart from this issue, there is much room for discussion on the issue of governance for a company listed in which the founder owns more than 50% of the shares.
This is the same problem that occurs with parent-subsidiary listings. For increasing the listed companies, TSE has permitted the listing of companies in which the founder owns majority of shares.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
✓ Personalised Alerts
✓ Custom Watchlists
✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jul 18

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Link Administration, Tencent and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (18 Jul) – Link Admin, AOF, DTAC/True, Ramsay Health, ResApp, Infomedia
China Internet Weekly (18Jul2022): Tencent, Alibaba, Kingsoft Office, Miss Fresh

Merger Arb Mondays (18 Jul) – Link Admin, AOF, DTAC/True, Ramsay Health, ResApp, Infomedia