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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jul 06
0

Singapore: SPH REIT, Mapletree Commercial Trust and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • SPH REIT Float Drops – Index Impacts To Come (Today and Beyond)
  • MCT SP as MPACT Creeping Ever Higher Vs Peers

SPH REIT Float Drops – Index Impacts To Come (Today and Beyond)

By Travis Lundy

MCT SP as MPACT Creeping Ever Higher Vs Peers

By Travis Lundy

  • Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP) has crept higher vs the Peer Baskets, especially in the last 4-6 weeks as Other S-REITs have weakened. 
  • This sets the stage for a potentially large flowback into S-REITs as a class coming in a few weeks.
  • It may be time to reconsider positioning, looking at where MPACT has been and will be.

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Jul 06
0

Event-Driven: SPH REIT, Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT, Tianqi Lithium, Advanced Info Service, SK IE Technology, Mapletree Commercial Trust, Rio Tinto PLC and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • SPH REIT Float Drops – Index Impacts To Come (Today and Beyond)
  • Merdeka Copper (MDKA IJ): Listing Board Change and FTSE Inclusion
  • MSCI August 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: The Last QIR?
  • Jasmine Acquisition To Expand Advanced’s Broadband Footprint
  • Block Deal Sale of SK IE Technology by Premier Partners: Trying to Dump Shares on a Dead Cat Bounce
  • MCT SP as MPACT Creeping Ever Higher Vs Peers
  • Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: June ‘22 Report

SPH REIT Float Drops – Index Impacts To Come (Today and Beyond)

By Travis Lundy

Merdeka Copper (MDKA IJ): Listing Board Change and FTSE Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

MSCI August 2022 Index Rebalance Preview: The Last QIR?

By Brian Freitas

Jasmine Acquisition To Expand Advanced’s Broadband Footprint

By David Blennerhassett

Block Deal Sale of SK IE Technology by Premier Partners: Trying to Dump Shares on a Dead Cat Bounce

By Douglas Kim

  • Premier Partners private equity firm plans to sell a total of 3.46 million shares (4.84% stake) of SK IE Technology (361610 KS) in a block deal sale.
  • Premier Partners is trying to dump its shares right after a dead cat bounce in SK IET’s share price rise on 5 July.  
  • Despite the large block deal discount range, we remain negative on the SK IE Technology shares and we would avoid this block deal. Valuations remain expensive.

MCT SP as MPACT Creeping Ever Higher Vs Peers

By Travis Lundy

  • Mapletree Commercial Trust (MCT SP) has crept higher vs the Peer Baskets, especially in the last 4-6 weeks as Other S-REITs have weakened. 
  • This sets the stage for a potentially large flowback into S-REITs as a class coming in a few weeks.
  • It may be time to reconsider positioning, looking at where MPACT has been and will be.

Selected European Holdcos and DLCs: June ‘22 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have either remained within same levels or widened during June: Alba, 40.3%; GBL, 34.7%; Heineken Holdings to 20.9%; Industrivärden C, 13.8%; Investor B, 15.6%; 
  • Porsche Automobile Holding to 35.3%. Rio Tinto DLC widened to 23.4%.  Spreads tend to widen in bear markets but short term recoveries provide opportunities to bet on tightening discounts.
  • Recommended trades: Industrivärden C vs. listed assets, Rio Tinto (DLC).

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Jul 06
0

TMT: SenseTime Group, FUJIFILM Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • SenseTime: Shares Fall with Lock-Up Expiry; Further Downside with More Selling at the Next Expiry
  • Fujifilm (4901) | Bio Pharma Giant Is a Double

SenseTime: Shares Fall with Lock-Up Expiry; Further Downside with More Selling at the Next Expiry

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • AI software company SenseTime’s share price dropped more than 50% over the last one week with the expiry of lock-up period as pre-investors of the company took some profits.  
  • The company was placed in an investment blacklist by the US government prior to the IPO which forced to launch the IPO without investors from the US.
  • The company also priced the IPO at the bottom of the price range and despite all of this, shares quickly went up to HK$8.20 from IPO price of US$3.85.

Fujifilm (4901) | Bio Pharma Giant Is a Double

By Mark Chadwick

  • It is time to throw off the old valuation models. Fujifilm is no longer a dusty old camera maker
  • The healthcare business is already the biggest earnings driver and with aggressive capex…. 
  • Fujifilm will become the biggest biopharma contract manufacturing company in the world. Valuations don’t reflect that. 

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Jul 06
0

Consumer: Emperador Inc, Weilong Delicious Global and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Emperador Secondary Listing – Driven by Whisky, Supported by Brandy
  • Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – Growth Is Slowing but Pre-IPO Valuation Has Been Halved

Emperador Secondary Listing – Driven by Whisky, Supported by Brandy

By Sumeet Singh

  • Emperador (Emp) is looking to raise up to US$750m via a secondary listing in Singapore.
  • Emp is the Philippines’ largest liquor company and the world’s largest brandy producer. Its products are sold in over 100 countries.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s past performance.

Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – Growth Is Slowing but Pre-IPO Valuation Has Been Halved

By Sumeet Singh

  • Weilong Delicious Global (WDG), a spicy snack food company in China, aims to raise around US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • According to F&S, WDG ranked first among spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and in the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snacks categories.
  • In this note, we talk about the updates from its refiled PHIP.

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Jul 06
0

Indonesia: Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk PT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Merdeka Copper (MDKA IJ): Listing Board Change and FTSE Inclusion

Merdeka Copper (MDKA IJ): Listing Board Change and FTSE Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

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Jul 06
0

Equity Bottom-Up: SenseTime Group, Shionogi & Co, China Power International, Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund, Advanced Info Service, FUJIFILM Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • SenseTime: Shares Fall with Lock-Up Expiry; Further Downside with More Selling at the Next Expiry
  • Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Ready To Cash-In On COVID-Related Efforts; Long-Term Growth Drivers Added
  • China Power International (2380 HK): Another Step in Clean Energy Transition
  • JASIF : Contract Cancellation Will Affect Dividend Payment
  • ADVANC : Large Boost to Broadband Business Growth
  • Fujifilm (4901) | Bio Pharma Giant Is a Double

SenseTime: Shares Fall with Lock-Up Expiry; Further Downside with More Selling at the Next Expiry

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • AI software company SenseTime’s share price dropped more than 50% over the last one week with the expiry of lock-up period as pre-investors of the company took some profits.  
  • The company was placed in an investment blacklist by the US government prior to the IPO which forced to launch the IPO without investors from the US.
  • The company also priced the IPO at the bottom of the price range and despite all of this, shares quickly went up to HK$8.20 from IPO price of US$3.85.

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Ready To Cash-In On COVID-Related Efforts; Long-Term Growth Drivers Added

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shionogi & Co (4507 JP), an established global name in infectious diseases, is banking on COVID-related products to achieve accelerated double-digit revenue growth in current fiscal.
  • Shionogi applied for the domestic marketing of its COVID-19 oral drug and signed a basic agreement with the government, which is expected to purchase 1 million courses immediately after approval.
  • It has a stable revenue stream from HIV franchise. Apart from infectious diseases, Shionogi has multiple late-stage candidates in psycho-neurological diseases and other new growth areas, including oncology and cardiology.

China Power International (2380 HK): Another Step in Clean Energy Transition

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Power International (2380 HK) will acquire 2.15GW clean energy capacity from its parent SPIC for a total of Rmb7.5bn. This will add 14.3% to its end-FY21 clean energy portfolio.
  • We think the assets are priced attractively at 12.5x PER for FY21, a discount to peers’ average of 14x. The acquired capacity has an impressive 45.8% YoY earnings growth.
  • CPI targets to have 70% of end-FY23 capacity from clean energy, and this implies a 46.3% CAGR between FY21 and FY23, which is a very exciting momentum. 

JASIF : Contract Cancellation Will Affect Dividend Payment

By Pi Research

  • Downgrade to HOLD fom BUY and cut TP by 28% to Bt8.80 derived form DCF (WACC=8.02%, g=0%) to factor in significant reduction in revenue and dividend from 2023 
  • A non-attractive deal for JASIF shareholders: On July 4th 2022, JAS informed SET that, ADVANC is considering purchase of 99.99% of TTTBB and 19% of total JASIF units at Bt8.5 
  • In that case,The Amended Rental Assurance agreement that generates a superior rental rate of770/km/month will be cancelled which will cause a dip of 30%in the revenue generation of JASIF in2023onwards.

ADVANC : Large Boost to Broadband Business Growth

By Pi Research

  • We maintain our BUY rating and TP of Bt259 based on based on DCF,representing 26.4xPE’22E. Analyst meeting yesterday on ADVANC’s acquisition of TTTBB and JASIF units came with positive tone
  • The deal should be highly favorable for ADVANC:We believe that the entire transaction could provide a 8.5% upside to our current forecasted 23E EPS through Adjusted EPS, leading to Bt11.54/share.
  • 2Q22E earnings will keep 22E earnings on track We believe that 2Q22E net profit will be at Bt6.5bn(-7% YoY, +4% QoQ).Seasonal low costs, despite high competition, will lead to QoQ 

Fujifilm (4901) | Bio Pharma Giant Is a Double

By Mark Chadwick

  • It is time to throw off the old valuation models. Fujifilm is no longer a dusty old camera maker
  • The healthcare business is already the biggest earnings driver and with aggressive capex…. 
  • Fujifilm will become the biggest biopharma contract manufacturing company in the world. Valuations don’t reflect that. 

Related tickers: Shionogi & Co (4507.T), China Power International (2380.HK), Jasmine Broadband Internet Infrastructure Fund (JASIF.BK), Advanced Info Service (ADVANC.BK), FUJIFILM Holdings (4901.T)

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Jul 06
0

Japan: Shionogi & Co, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix, FUJIFILM Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Ready To Cash-In On COVID-Related Efforts; Long-Term Growth Drivers Added
  • Are Japanese Stocks Undervalued or Is There a Reason for Stagnant Valuations?
  • Fujifilm (4901) | Bio Pharma Giant Is a Double

Shionogi & Co (4507 JP): Ready To Cash-In On COVID-Related Efforts; Long-Term Growth Drivers Added

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shionogi & Co (4507 JP), an established global name in infectious diseases, is banking on COVID-related products to achieve accelerated double-digit revenue growth in current fiscal.
  • Shionogi applied for the domestic marketing of its COVID-19 oral drug and signed a basic agreement with the government, which is expected to purchase 1 million courses immediately after approval.
  • It has a stable revenue stream from HIV franchise. Apart from infectious diseases, Shionogi has multiple late-stage candidates in psycho-neurological diseases and other new growth areas, including oncology and cardiology.

Are Japanese Stocks Undervalued or Is There a Reason for Stagnant Valuations?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • I would like to discuss the Nikkei article on “Stock market interest is shifting to undervalued stocks, but analyst coverage of small- and mid-cap stocks is scarce.”
  • Assuming investors don’t buy a stock because it’s cheap, but because they understand the gap between its intrinsic value and the share price, to make many investors understand the value.
  • Companies are required to execute capital allocations and communicate with analysts and investors to increase corporate value, and those that were able to do so were able to raise valuations.

Fujifilm (4901) | Bio Pharma Giant Is a Double

By Mark Chadwick

  • It is time to throw off the old valuation models. Fujifilm is no longer a dusty old camera maker
  • The healthcare business is already the biggest earnings driver and with aggressive capex…. 
  • Fujifilm will become the biggest biopharma contract manufacturing company in the world. Valuations don’t reflect that. 

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Jul 06
0

South Korea: SK IE Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • SK IE Technology Placement – Last Deal Didn’t Do Well, More Discount and Cleanup Should Help
  • Block Deal Sale of SK IE Technology by Premier Partners: Trying to Dump Shares on a Dead Cat Bounce

SK IE Technology Placement – Last Deal Didn’t Do Well, More Discount and Cleanup Should Help

By Sumeet Singh

  • SK IE Technology’s (SKIE) shareholder aims to raise around US$228m via selling their remaining shareholding.
  • The same shareholder had sold some of their stake earlier in Nov 21. That deal didn’t end up doing well.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and  run the deal through our ECM framework.

Block Deal Sale of SK IE Technology by Premier Partners: Trying to Dump Shares on a Dead Cat Bounce

By Douglas Kim

  • Premier Partners private equity firm plans to sell a total of 3.46 million shares (4.84% stake) of SK IE Technology (361610 KS) in a block deal sale.
  • Premier Partners is trying to dump its shares right after a dead cat bounce in SK IET’s share price rise on 5 July.  
  • Despite the large block deal discount range, we remain negative on the SK IE Technology shares and we would avoid this block deal. Valuations remain expensive.

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Jul 06
0

United States: Bitcoin and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • BTC Drops Below $20k as Credit Contagion Spreads

BTC Drops Below $20k as Credit Contagion Spreads

By Kaiko

  • Trend of the Week: Tether’s market cap has plummeted amid a reportedly sharp increase in bearish bets.
  • Price Movements: BTC dipped below $20k while ETH held steady above $1k as credit contagion continued to roil markets.
  • Market Liquidity: Binance.US processed a record number of transactions after eliminating BTC trading fees.

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Jul 06
0

Macro: Emerging Asia – Moving Ahead Despite The Headwinds and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Emerging Asia – Moving Ahead Despite The Headwinds
  • Singapore: The Next Generation Leadership Sets Out to Make Its Mark
  • Japan: The Winner from This Year’s Spurt of Inflation

Emerging Asia – Moving Ahead Despite The Headwinds

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • First, our baseline view is that the US will avoid a recession and that capital spending there – which has a strong influence on Asian exports – can grow.
  • Second, we see China recovering in 2023 and adding to Asian export demand. Third, commodity prices are likely to continue supporting several Asian economies.
  • Finally, there are structural forces which will help promote investment into Asia – supply chain reconfiguration, reforms that improve the appeal to investors and infrastructure spending.

Singapore: The Next Generation Leadership Sets Out to Make Its Mark

By Nicholas Chia

  • The launch of the “Forward Singapore” exercise provides an opportunity for Deputy Prime Minster Lawrence Wong, the anointed successor to Prime Minister Lee to raise his profile. 
  • The policy priorities of the next generation of leaders can be gleaned from the exercise and it reinforces DPM Wong’s leadership style of consensus building.
  • A significant departure in the policy priorities of the next administration is highly unlikely, however.

Japan: The Winner from This Year’s Spurt of Inflation

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • Given public debt of 248% of GDP, inflation (however generated) is a solid net positive for Japan, boosting government revenue and reducing the fiscal deficit & public debt/GDP ratios. 
  • The depreciated Yen (at a 14-year low at end-June) is a boon for exports and import-competing manufacturers. Despite Kuroda’s jawboning, the Yen is likely to stay weak, boosting Japan’s manufacturers. 
  • The equity market is trading at 14.1x, far below its 10-year mean PE of 21.3x. The dominance of exporters should bolster index earnings. Japan will be a winning equity bet. 

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