Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• The S&P 500 closed at a fresh record high, gaining 0.8% after an afternoon rally helped investors shake off disappointing private employment data
• Treasury yields dropped following the ADP report, easing pressure on markets after the 30-year yield briefly topped 5% Wednesday
• Nidec shares plummeted 22% to 2,420 yen, hitting the lower limit of the price range, after the company announced a possible case of improper accounting treatment at Chinese subsidiary

• The GST Council has simplified India’s indirect tax structure, cutting rates across daily essentials and consolidating slabs into 5% and 18%, with a new 40% bracket for sin goods.
• Consumption accounts for over 60% of GDP, and this tax reset is designed to revive household demand. We expect a 0.5-1% boost to GDP growth over the next 4–6 quarters.
• FMCG companies with price-sensitive portfolios, biscuits, hair oils, shampoo sachets, stand to gain most. Retailers and QSRs will ride the consumption uplift, while tobacco taxation remains unresolved beyond 2025.

• CCI establishes 550 procurement centres to carry out MSP operations
• Duty-Free imports of yellow peas impact prices of local pulses
• Centre approves 60,800 metric tonnes of urea for Chhattisgarh for Sept

• Gold equities have seen a significant run up in price, with strong earnings being reported in the past few months.
• Despite the increase in gold price, generalist investors have been slow to enter the gold market, causing some skepticism about the sustainability of the price above $3,000.
• However, industry experts believe there is still room for growth in the gold market, with potential for more retail and institutional investors to enter the space and drive margins higher.

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• Huge +18% move for Sandisk will help Japan’s memory complex leg higher.
• Networking developer Ciena jumped 23% after blow-out numbers while Broadcom beats after-hours.
• 10-Year yield dropping below its recent supports helps home builders higher while Shin Etsu continues to underwhelm.

• China curbing NMC builds due to <40% factory utilization while EV installs were 75% LFP/25% ternary, undermining NMC ROI significantly.
• LFP cost advantage widened with cathode material costs falling $72→$41/kWh vs NCM622 $92→$79/kWh, creating ~$38/kWh gap.
• India’s opportunity lies in LFP/LMFP across ESS and mobility, backed by ACC PLI Rs 181bn and BESS VGF programs.

• The GST Council has approved rate cuts , lowering from 28-29% to 18% for 2Ws (<350cc), 3Ws, CVs, tractors and small PVs, while larger cars move to 40% from 43-50%.
• Price cuts of 2–9% in mass-market vehicles could spur demand just as rural sentiment, interest rates, and fiscal transfers turn supportive, creating a multi-pronged recovery catalyst for OEMs and ancillaries.
• The rationalization removes structural distortions, improves affordability, and positions the festive season as a turning point for sector volumes and improved margins, though premium bikes and fleet operators face headwinds.

• Almost a year ago, I wrote a report titled “Humanoids are coming and this overlooked stock could be their Nvidia”.  There’s been progress, but mass production still hasn’t started.
• Despite advancements in generative AI and large language models, it’s proving technologically challenging to teach humanoids to reason, adapt, and multitask like humans.
• 2026 seems to be the new target, but there likely needs to be evidence of an order increase before the related stocks get moving.

• Walmart’s electronic shelf label shipments are growing significantly, reflecting a shift in retail technology.
• Sony aims for all suppliers to use 100% renewable energy by 2031, highlighting a commitment to sustainability.
• The Tech Forum 2025 predicts AI and semiconductor convergence will boost the global market to $2 trillion by 2040.