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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: ABM Investama and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief India: ABM Investama, Hopson Development and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Weekly Wrap – 06 Jan 2023

Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

Weekly Wrap – 06 Jan 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Fosun International
  2. Lippo Karawaci
  3. Agile Property Holdings
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Lifestyle International Holdings

and more…

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Intouch Holdings, iQIYI Inc, STMicroelectronics NV, NetEase Inc, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Thaicom: Gulf Energy’s Low-Balled MTO Now Open For Acceptances
  • IQIYI (IQ US): Taking a Break
  • STMicroelectronics: Building Positions Ahead of the Next Upcycle
  • NetEase(NTES.US) 4Q22 Preview: Enter a Period of Lukewarm Performance
  • Time to Move Forward to Corporate Governance 2.0, Where the Substance Will Be Questioned

Thaicom: Gulf Energy’s Low-Balled MTO Now Open For Acceptances

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 7 November, Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)‘s board approved the sale of its 41.13% stake in Thaicom Pcl (THCOM TB) to Gulf Energy Development Public Company (GULF TB).
  • The sale price was Bt 9.92/share, a 19.3% discount last close. Intouch shareholders overwhelmingly approved the sale on the 28 December, which subsequently triggered an MTO. 
  • The Offer is now open for acceptances. The Offer closes on the 9 February. Intouch will pass through 100% of the sale proceeds via a special dividend. 

IQIYI (IQ US): Taking a Break

By Eric Chen

  • Since we highlighted the compelling asymmetrical risk-return payoff of IQ last November, the stock has surged 200%, compared to 45% gain for KWEB which tracks China ADRs.
  • We believe the outperformance was driven by more concrete progress in fundamental turnaround including multiple blockbuster drama released, increase in subscription fee and removal of debt overhang.
  • With $7 billion market cap (on diluted basis), IQ already trades at 35 times 2023 earnings, pricing in fair degree of positive prospects. We advise investors to lock in profits.

STMicroelectronics: Building Positions Ahead of the Next Upcycle

By Alexis Dwek

  • New technologies such as 5G, 3D, Time of Flight and new materials such as silicon carbide and gallium nitride have paved the way for the Company’s long-term growth
  • The semis market should reach trough in H1 2023; the low point in share prices is generally a few months before the semis market itself reaches the bottom
  • Valuation is appealing at these levels. Discount to peers. Upside potential is over 50%

NetEase(NTES.US) 4Q22 Preview: Enter a Period of Lukewarm Performance

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that NetEase’s 4Q22 revenue/non-GAAP net income will be in line/12% vs cons. Our 2023’s revenue/non-GAAP net income are in line/12% vs cons.
  • In 4Q22, several of NetEase’s mid-tier games saw declines in ranking.  We expect that NetEase will have a period of single digit growth in revenue.
  • We still rate NetEase BUY and raise TP to US$ 87. But NetEase is not our top pick within China internet space.

Time to Move Forward to Corporate Governance 2.0, Where the Substance Will Be Questioned

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Although Fujitec’s corporate governance framework has improved in places, the Statutory Auditor and Nominating Committee aren’t functioning, and the Board of Directors with a majority of independent directors isn’t functioning.
  • METI survey shows that 20% of independent directors are friends of CEO, a glimpse of how companies expect independent outside directors to play a role in endorsing executive management policies.
  • With several revisions of Corporate Governance Code, companies have ostensibly made steady progress in corporate governance efforts. However, whether this has been accompanied by substance varies from company to company.

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Jan 07
0

Most Read: XPeng, SBI Shinsei Bank, Brilliance China Automotive, Li Auto, Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk, Ping An Insurance (H), Adani Enterprises, Weimob Inc., KakaoBank and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview (March): Handling Treatment Changes Lead to High Turnover
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Handling Treatment & Changes in March
  • 2023 High Conviction – SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) – Still Reading Between the Lines
  • HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change
  • HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?
  • LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Few Weeks to Implementation
  • Ping An A/H Premium: Buy the A’s, Sell the H’s
  • SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Could Replace Wipro
  • Weimob Placement – Share Price Momentum over the past Few Months Have Been Strong
  • Potential Block Deal Targets in Korea for a Preemptive Position Buildup

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview (March): Handling Treatment Changes Lead to High Turnover

By Brian Freitas

  • We expect at least one change to the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTECH INDEX) in March – though there could be another change as well.
  • Changes to the index handling for Dual Primary Listings should result in an increase in free float and passive inflows to Li Auto (2015 HK) and XPeng (9868 HK). 
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 5.83% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$4.87bn and this is mainly driven by float and capping changes.

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Handling Treatment & Changes in March

By Brian Freitas

  • We expect one change to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in March, though there is a possibility of a second change.
  • The change in the index handling treatment for Secondary Listings and Dual Primary Listings will also result in some big float changes resulting in inflows to some stocks.
  • If there are two changes to the index, estimated one-way turnover is 2.39% resulting in a one-way trade of HK$1,536m.

2023 High Conviction – SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) – Still Reading Between the Lines

By Travis Lundy

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: A Lot of Change

By Brian Freitas

  • We see 44 potential adds (including plenty of new listings) and 19 potential deletes (on market cap, liquidity and suspension) for the Hang Seng Composite Index in March.
  • We expect 37 stocks to be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the rebalance while 37 stocks could be deleted from the trading link and become Sell-only. 
  • There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.

HSI Index Rebalance Preview: Better Late Than Never?

By Brian Freitas

  • There are currently 76 index constituents and we can (maybe? finally! hopefully 🤞) get to 80 members in March before commencing the next leg up to 100 index constituents.
  • We list 10 potential inclusions to the index in March. Adding all 10 stocks will lead to over 6% one-way turnover, so there will be fewer inclusions.
  • All stocks will have over 1 day of ADV to buy from passive trackers. Some stocks have short interest of over 7% of float.

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Few Weeks to Implementation

By Brian Freitas

Ping An A/H Premium: Buy the A’s, Sell the H’s

By Brian Freitas

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview: Adani Enterprises Could Replace Wipro

By Brian Freitas

  • A third of the way through the review period of the June rebalance, we see one potential index change with Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) replacing Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN). 
  • Adani Enterprises (ADE IN) could move lower in the short-term due to the public issue of shares but should find support from passive buying from local and global index trackers.
  • Wipro Ltd (WPRO IN) has underperformed most of its peers by a wide margin over the last year and the passive selling could provide an entry point.

Weimob Placement – Share Price Momentum over the past Few Months Have Been Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • Weimob Inc. (2013 HK) is looking to raise about US$205m in its primary placement to fund R&D, upgrade marketing systems, and for general working capital purposes.
  • On an ADV basis, the deal is a relatively small one at just 3.6 days of the firm’s three month ADV.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

Potential Block Deal Targets in Korea for a Preemptive Position Buildup

By Sanghyun Park

  • TPG and Anchor experienced EOD risk due to the recent plunge in Kakao Bank’s stock price. So, they will sell shares if the current price rise continues a little further.
  • All three PEs of Shinhan Financial are currently expected to be seeking an early exit although they expressed last year that they would remain strategic shareholders.
  • Other notable targets are Hahn & Co’s Hanon Systems and K Car and MBK Partners’ ConnectWave, likely via a phased stake sale in tranches.

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Financials: KakaoBank, Agile Property Holdings, Krungthai Card, Hopson Development, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Potential Block Deal Targets in Korea for a Preemptive Position Buildup
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 06 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • KTC – The Quiet
  • Weekly Wrap – 06 Jan 2023
  • Where Is TLT ETF Headed In 2023 And Why Inflation Won’t Be An Issue

Potential Block Deal Targets in Korea for a Preemptive Position Buildup

By Sanghyun Park

  • TPG and Anchor experienced EOD risk due to the recent plunge in Kakao Bank’s stock price. So, they will sell shares if the current price rise continues a little further.
  • All three PEs of Shinhan Financial are currently expected to be seeking an early exit although they expressed last year that they would remain strategic shareholders.
  • Other notable targets are Hahn & Co’s Hanon Systems and K Car and MBK Partners’ ConnectWave, likely via a phased stake sale in tranches.

Chinese Property Weekly – 06 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

KTC – The Quiet

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Quietly KTC has seen its bad loans and credit costs rise
  • During last year it saw a final surge in credit costs in the last quarter
  • Market share losses and regulatory risk may continue to pressure its 5x PB

Weekly Wrap – 06 Jan 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Fosun International
  2. Lippo Karawaci
  3. Agile Property Holdings
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Lifestyle International Holdings

and more…

Where Is TLT ETF Headed In 2023 And Why Inflation Won’t Be An Issue

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • The one-sided downward movement in both equity and bond prices in 2022 was both unusual and expected.
  • The set-up for the next 12 to 18 months is favourable for bonds, both on the short and the long-end of the curve.
  • The one- sided downward movement was both unexpected and expected.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief South Korea: KakaoBank, Megastudyedu Co, Ltd. and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Potential Block Deal Targets in Korea for a Preemptive Position Buildup
  • Adoption of Digital Textbooks (Korea in 2025 & Japan in 2024)

Potential Block Deal Targets in Korea for a Preemptive Position Buildup

By Sanghyun Park

  • TPG and Anchor experienced EOD risk due to the recent plunge in Kakao Bank’s stock price. So, they will sell shares if the current price rise continues a little further.
  • All three PEs of Shinhan Financial are currently expected to be seeking an early exit although they expressed last year that they would remain strategic shareholders.
  • Other notable targets are Hahn & Co’s Hanon Systems and K Car and MBK Partners’ ConnectWave, likely via a phased stake sale in tranches.

Adoption of Digital Textbooks (Korea in 2025 & Japan in 2024)

By Douglas Kim

  • The Korean Department of Education announced on 5 January that Korea will start to adopt customized digital school textbooks starting 2025.
  • These 11 Korean stocks that are well positioned to capitalize on the digital textbooks are up on average 5.3% YTD, strongly outperforming KOSPI which is up 2.4% YTD.
  • Japan is implementing the adoption of digital textbooks in elementary, junior, and high schools starting in 2024, ahead of Korea.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: ABM Investama and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Jan 07
0

Daily Brief United States: Carnival Corp, iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, MasterCraft Boat Holdings Inc. and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Carnival: Its Recovery Program Is Already Priced In
  • Where Is TLT ETF Headed In 2023 And Why Inflation Won’t Be An Issue
  • MasterCraft: Significantly Undervalued With Secular Growth Prospects

Carnival: Its Recovery Program Is Already Priced In

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • The company’s year-over-year revenue has surged by more than 1.98x.
  • Carnival remains far adrift from its midpoint profit margins and has a sizeable corporate bond to service.
  • A residual income valuation model places a fair value of $9.91 on the stock, placing it in fair value territory.

Where Is TLT ETF Headed In 2023 And Why Inflation Won’t Be An Issue

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • The one-sided downward movement in both equity and bond prices in 2022 was both unusual and expected.
  • The set-up for the next 12 to 18 months is favourable for bonds, both on the short and the long-end of the curve.
  • The one- sided downward movement was both unexpected and expected.

MasterCraft: Significantly Undervalued With Secular Growth Prospects

By Pearl Gray Equity and Research

  • Are you interested in consumer cyclical and industrial stocks while being worried about the macroeconomic outlook? Well, if you are, then MasterCraft (NASDAQ:MCFT) should be on your watchlist.
  • MasterCraft could part itself from the rest of the consumer cyclical segment during a trying macroeconomic environment.
  • The company’s Veblen good status and low debt burden could protect one’s portfolio against macro headwinds.

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief China: iQIYI Inc, Agile Property Holdings, NetEase Inc, Hopson Development, ABM Investama, iShares MSCI China ETF and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • IQIYI (IQ US): Taking a Break
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 06 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 06 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics
  • NetEase(NTES.US) 4Q22 Preview: Enter a Period of Lukewarm Performance
  • Weekly Wrap – 06 Jan 2023
  • Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming — Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

IQIYI (IQ US): Taking a Break

By Eric Chen

  • Since we highlighted the compelling asymmetrical risk-return payoff of IQ last November, the stock has surged 200%, compared to 45% gain for KWEB which tracks China ADRs.
  • We believe the outperformance was driven by more concrete progress in fundamental turnaround including multiple blockbuster drama released, increase in subscription fee and removal of debt overhang.
  • With $7 billion market cap (on diluted basis), IQ already trades at 35 times 2023 earnings, pricing in fair degree of positive prospects. We advise investors to lock in profits.

Chinese Property Weekly – 06 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

Chinese Property Weekly – 06 January 2023 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

NetEase(NTES.US) 4Q22 Preview: Enter a Period of Lukewarm Performance

By Shawn Yang

  • We estimate that NetEase’s 4Q22 revenue/non-GAAP net income will be in line/12% vs cons. Our 2023’s revenue/non-GAAP net income are in line/12% vs cons.
  • In 4Q22, several of NetEase’s mid-tier games saw declines in ranking.  We expect that NetEase will have a period of single digit growth in revenue.
  • We still rate NetEase BUY and raise TP to US$ 87. But NetEase is not our top pick within China internet space.

Weekly Wrap – 06 Jan 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Fosun International
  2. Lippo Karawaci
  3. Agile Property Holdings
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Lifestyle International Holdings

and more…

Asia HY Monthly – December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors’ understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming — Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.
  • We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.
  • And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Hopson Development and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 06 Jan 2023

Weekly Wrap – 06 Jan 2023

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Fosun International
  2. Lippo Karawaci
  3. Agile Property Holdings
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Lifestyle International Holdings

and more…

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free