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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief China: Sun Art Retail, Tencent, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Hang Seng Index, Sigenergy, Cosco Shipping Ports, iQIYI Inc, Jardine Matheson Holdings, UMP Healthcare and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sun Art (6808 HK): IFA Says MGO Is Not Fair. Rightfully So
  • Tencent (700 HK): Risen 35% Since Our Last Buy, Good Preview for 4Q24
  • SMIC (981.HK): Speculation About the Deepseek Rumor Does Imply Continued Creative Works in the World
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in PUT Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts
  • Sigenergy Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • COSCO Shipping Ports (1199 HK): What’s Interesting After the CKH Port Sale?
  • IQIYI Inc.: How Is Its Competitive Positioning Against Tencent Video & Short-Form Platforms?
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (06-Mar-2025): 7/10 Senior Directors Confident in Data Centres, But Talent Shortage Will Widen
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in CALL Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts
  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Solid H1 2025, Cost-Cutting Initiatives Bearing Fruit


Sun Art (6808 HK): IFA Says MGO Is Not Fair. Rightfully So

By David Blennerhassett

  • Late December 2024, Alibaba (9988 HK) entered an SPA with DCP Capital to offload its 78.7% stake in Sun Art (6808 HK) at HK$1.38/share, a 44.4% discount to last close.
  • The SPA completed on the 27th Feb, triggering an unconditional MGO, also at HK$1.38. FWIW, a deferred payment option raises the Offer Price to a maximum of HK$1.58/share. 
  • The Composite Document is now out, with a Closing Date for tendering on the 27th March. This won’t be extended. The IFA (Somerley) says NOT fair & reasonable.

Tencent (700 HK): Risen 35% Since Our Last Buy, Good Preview for 4Q24

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent’s stock price has risen by 35% since our last buy rating. Downgrade to Hold.
  • Our EPS estimate for 2025 is 12% over the market consensus.
  • We believe both revenue growth and margin will improve in the coming 4Q24 results.

SMIC (981.HK): Speculation About the Deepseek Rumor Does Imply Continued Creative Works in the World

By Patrick Liao

  • There is speculation about Deepseek’s wafer manufacturing yield issue at Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) these days.  
  • The potential concern serves as a signal for a hot topic within the company, carrying two underlying meanings.
  • Although NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is making waves in AI applications, we must not overlook the potential for continued creative developments in the world, such as Deepseek’s solution.  

Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in PUT Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) put options show concentrated positioning at the 19,000 and 20,000 strike levels.
  • Traders continue to establish new positions approximately 15%-20% below current market levels, suggesting protection against major market corrections rather than minor pullbacks. The focus is on near-term risk.
  • Implied volatility has remained stable at 25-30% over the past two weeks, consistent with a broadly sideways movement in the index itself.

Sigenergy Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

  • Sigenergy (SIG CH) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CITIC and BNP Paribas.
  • It provides renewable energy solutions, catering to 1) residential, 2) commercial, and 3) industrial applications.
  • The group markets and sells to distributors and primarily serves the European market.

COSCO Shipping Ports (1199 HK): What’s Interesting After the CKH Port Sale?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Following CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)‘s port disposal, Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK) looks interesting, given its portfolio of port projects, which spans globally.
  • Overseas ports accounted for 38.9% of its noncurrent assets. A disposal of half of such portfolio will generate HK$15.2bn of cash flow, equalling almost 89% of its market capitalisation. 
  • Even without corporate activities, its 6.4x PER, 6.7% dividend yield, and 11.8x EV/EBITDA are inexpensive. The 0.36x P/B for FY25 also deeply undervalued its assets.

IQIYI Inc.: How Is Its Competitive Positioning Against Tencent Video & Short-Form Platforms?

By Baptista Research

  • iQIYI reported a mixed set of results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024.
  • The company observed significant improvements in several operational metrics towards the end of the quarter, fueled by the strong performance of its top-tier content.
  • This uptick in content performance led to an increase in subscribing members and higher user engagement.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (06-Mar-2025): 7/10 Senior Directors Confident in Data Centres, But Talent Shortage Will Widen

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • 70% of Senior Directors are confident in data centres, showing faith in their reliability and efficiency despite challenges.
  • HPL’s acquisition of InterContinental Auckland for $102M marks its entry into the New Zealand market, expanding its portfolio.
  • Stuart Grant’s appointment as head of Hongkong Land’s $8B Shanghai project highlights the company’s commitment to growth and development in the region.

Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in CALL Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Market traders of Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) call options maintain significant holdings in lower strikes, with notable concentration at the 20,000 strike level.
  • Open interest data reveals significant increase in open interest for 25,000 and 26,000 strike calls since late February, reflecting active trading as traders built new positions.
  • Despite increased trading activity and changes in market positioning, implied volatility has remained stable at 25-30% over the past two weeks, reflecting a consistent market sentiment.

UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Solid H1 2025, Cost-Cutting Initiatives Bearing Fruit

By Sameer Taneja

  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK) reported a Revenue/PAT growth of -1.2%/45.7% YoY as cost-cutting initiatives bore fruit for the company in H1 FY25. 
  • Net cash and investments reached 294 mn HKD (representing 88% of the market capitalization) due to robust operating profits and excellent working capital control. 
  • Trading at 7.7x PE and 0.4x EV-EBITDA, with an 8% dividend yield, there is massive value in the name. The key lies in improving ROCE, which remains low- single digit. 

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Daily Brief India: Gensol Engineering, IGI (India) Limited, AGS Transact Technologies, Kitex Garments, Travel Food Services Ltd, PMEA Solar Tech Solutions Limited and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Gensol Engineering: Forensic Analysis
  • IGI Faces Headwinds: Growth Concerns, Market Risks & Uncertainties
  • Forensic Analysis – AGS Transact Technologies: A Story Of Financial Mismanagement
  • The Beat Ideas: Kitex Garments- A Global Inflant Wear Play
  • Travel Food Services Pre-IPO – Flourishing Takeoff and Takeout Services
  • PMEA Solar Pre-IPO – Strong Revenue Growth Paired With Shrinking Efficiency And High Debt


Gensol Engineering: Forensic Analysis

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Gensol Engineering (GENSOL IN)’s credit rating was downgraded to default, triggering a 34% stock decline in just five days. ICRA flagged misleading financial disclosures, high promoter pledges raised serious concerns.
  • The company is grappling with delayed debt repayments, aggressive accounting policies, and uncertainty in equity infusion, impacting its ambitious EV manufacturing and solar EPC expansion plans.
  • Gensol’s governance issues, cross-default risks, and financial opacity create a high-risk scenario for investors. Management must provide clarity on debt servicing, pledged shares, and capital infusion to restore confidence.

IGI Faces Headwinds: Growth Concerns, Market Risks & Uncertainties

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Steep fall in diamond prices leading to slowdown in demand for certification services since its not viable as much for a consumer as it used to be.
  • A leading jeweller in India reiterated that certification demand for diamonds is slowing down due to changing consumer preferences.
  • The International Gemmological Institute, the leading certification agency, is now facing headwinds evident from earnings growth slowdown.

Forensic Analysis – AGS Transact Technologies: A Story Of Financial Mismanagement

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • AGS Transact Technologies (AGSTRA IN)‘ stock plunged 85% in six months due to loan defaults, delayed payments, and severe cash flow issues.
  • The company is on the verge of insolvency as debt defaults, SLA breaches, and auditor concerns mount. Independent directors, executives, and key employees are resigning, signaling deep-rooted financial instability.
  • The management’s revival plan, including selling subsidiaries and restructuring loans, may be too late. The cash management business is highly sensitive to disruptions, making recovery uncertain. 

The Beat Ideas: Kitex Garments- A Global Inflant Wear Play

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Kitex Garments (KTG IN) is the world’s second-largest manufacturer of ready-to-wear clothing for infants and children.
  • KGL is expanding its manufacturing capabilities by establishing two new integrated units in Warangal and Sitarampur, Telangana which will increase capacity to 10.68L pieces per day.
  • Kitex Garments is also planning to merge with Kitex Childrenswear Limited, which sell processed fabrics, rental agreements for factory premises, and special job work contracts for KGL.

Travel Food Services Pre-IPO – Flourishing Takeoff and Takeout Services

By Akshat Shah

  • Travel Food Services Ltd (1450229D IN) is looking to raise about US$238m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Travel Food Services Limited (TFS) operates a network of travel quick service restaurants (Travel QSRs) and private lounges in airports.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

PMEA Solar Pre-IPO – Strong Revenue Growth Paired With Shrinking Efficiency And High Debt

By Rosita Fernandes

  • PMEA Solar Tech Solutions Limited (0991151D IN) (PSTSL) is planning to raise about US$116m through its upcoming India IPO. 
  • PSTSL specializes in manufacturing solar equipments, primarily focusing on module mounting assemblies and rolled products. Its other business includes manufacturing automotive components and other products.
  • The company held an estimated market share of 9% of the overall domestic market for solar tracking and mounting products used in solar trackers, as per CRISIL Report.

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Daily Brief United States: Amazon.com Inc, Booking Holdings, Trimble Navigation, Wingstop Inc, Bausch + Lomb, Visteon Corp, Exact Sciences, MNTN, Vera Bradley, Cf Industries Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & US$13bn Trade
  • Booking Holdings: An Insight Into Its Merchant Model Expansion & Payment Innovations!
  • Trimble Inc.: Is The Strategic Pivot From Traditional Sales To A Subscription-Based Model Paying Off?
  • Wingstop Inc.: Innovative Kitchen Operating Platform To Set The Stage For Long-Term Growth!
  • Bausch + Lomb: Innovative Product Launches in the Surgical Business Can Truly Shape Their Future!
  • Visteon’s Bold Asia Expansion: Looking To Double Revenue by 2027?
  • Exact Sciences Corporation: Is The Oncology Product Pipeline Development to Capture A Lion’s Share of the Market?
  • MNTN, Inc. (MNTN) – Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Performance Marketing Platform Software Company
  • VRA: 4Q Preview: More Green Shoots On the Way; Reiterate Buy, PT
  • CF Industries: Growth of Low Carbon Ammonia to Reinforce Leadership Position In Green Transitions!


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & US$13bn Trade

By Brian Freitas


Booking Holdings: An Insight Into Its Merchant Model Expansion & Payment Innovations!

By Baptista Research

  • Booking Holdings, a major player in the global online travel industry, reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, showcasing a strong performance across several key metrics.
  • The company achieved a 13% year-over-year growth in room nights during the fourth quarter, surpassing its expectations and reflecting robust demand across all major regions.
  • The growth in room nights contributed to a 17% increase in gross bookings and 14% revenue growth, both exceeding the company’s prior guidance.

Trimble Inc.: Is The Strategic Pivot From Traditional Sales To A Subscription-Based Model Paying Off?

By Baptista Research

  • Trimble Inc. concluded its fiscal year with robust performance, exceeding the midpoint of its guidance.
  • The company reported fourth-quarter revenue of $983 million, ARR of $2.26 billion, and EPS of $0.89.
  • On an as adjusted basis, the fourth-quarter revenue increased by 9%, while gross margins significantly exceeded 70% for the first time.

Wingstop Inc.: Innovative Kitchen Operating Platform To Set The Stage For Long-Term Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Wingstop Inc. demonstrated robust financial performance in fiscal year 2024.
  • The company achieved record results, marked by a 19.9% increase in domestic same-store sales and a remarkable 15.8% unit growth with the opening of 349 net new restaurants.
  • This growth pushed system-wide sales up by 36.8% to $4.8 billion, while adjusted EBITDA surged by 44.8% to $212 million, emphasizing Wingstop’s strong operational and strategic foothold in the fast-casual dining sector.

Bausch + Lomb: Innovative Product Launches in the Surgical Business Can Truly Shape Their Future!

By Baptista Research

  • Bausch + Lomb delivered a robust financial performance in the fourth quarter of 2024, marking its fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit constant currency revenue growth.
  • The company achieved a 17% growth in constant currency revenue for the entire year.
  • This trajectory is attributed to the continuous introduction of new products and substantial enhancements in manufacturing processes, notably through the deployment of AI technologies.

Visteon’s Bold Asia Expansion: Looking To Double Revenue by 2027?

By Baptista Research

  • Visteon Corporation reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, reflecting a period of strategic progress and solid operational performance.
  • The company secured $3.87 billion in sales for the year, demonstrating alignment with key automotive industry trends, especially in digitalization, software-defined vehicles, and electrification.
  • Record levels were achieved in adjusted EBITDA, at $474 million, and adjusted free cash flow, amounting to $300 million, underscoring strong financial discipline and operational execution.

Exact Sciences Corporation: Is The Oncology Product Pipeline Development to Capture A Lion’s Share of the Market?

By Baptista Research

  • Exact Sciences recently reported its fourth-quarter 2024 financial results, showcasing a mix of both positive momentum and certain challenges.
  • For the full year, Exact Sciences achieved a core revenue growth of 11%, reaching $2.75 billion, and notably expanded its adjusted EBITDA by nearly 48%.
  • The company also doubled its free cash flow and ended the year with a robust $1.04 billion in cash and securities.

MNTN, Inc. (MNTN) – Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Performance Marketing Platform Software Company

By IPO Boutique

  • Their Performance TV software platform allows marketers to combine the powerful storytelling format of TV advertising with the targeting, measurement and attribution capabilities of paid search and social advertising.
  • They had revenue of $176.3 million and $225.6 million and net loss of $53.3 million and $32.9 million in 2023 and 2024, respectively.
  • We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) and debut in the second half of March

VRA: 4Q Preview: More Green Shoots On the Way; Reiterate Buy, PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $5.50 price target and projections for Vera Bradley with the company reporting 4QFY25 (January) results before the open on Wednesday.
  • While we believe 4Q upside is limited, we expect management to point to signs of material progress as they shift the product and category mix to attract a younger generation.
  • Further, we expect the launch of the Spring collection in 1QFY26 has been a key positive and provides a road map to move Vera Bradley back into prominence.

CF Industries: Growth of Low Carbon Ammonia to Reinforce Leadership Position In Green Transitions!

By Baptista Research

  • CF Industries reported strong financial performance for the full year and fourth quarter of 2024, with a full-year adjusted EBITDA of $2.3 billion and a fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $562 million.
  • The company returned $1.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases, marking the highest level of capital return in over a decade.
  • This robust performance allowed for an increase in shareholder value, despite some concerns over cost increases and market volatility.

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Daily Brief Industrials: BayCurrent Consulting , Makino Milling Machine Co, IGI (India) Limited, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, LS Corp, Cosco Shipping Ports, Sigenergy, Deutsche Post, Fluence Corp, Clean Harbors and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Probable – Less Interesting Than Before
  • Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): State of Play
  • IGI Faces Headwinds: Growth Concerns, Market Risks & Uncertainties
  • DN Solutions IPO Might Skip OC—A Unique Trading Opportunity
  • LS Corp: Chairman’s Words Have Big Impact on Share Price
  • COSCO Shipping Ports (1199 HK): What’s Interesting After the CKH Port Sale?
  • Sigenergy Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 6 March (Intl. Distribution Services / PostNL | Havas | DHL)
  • Fluence Corp Ltd – Smoother water ahead
  • Clean Harbors Inc.: Can Its Increase In Incineration Capacity Help Alter The Playing Field?


Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Probable – Less Interesting Than Before

By Travis Lundy

  • The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
  • I see one ADD and one DELETE. Fast Retailing capping is right on the border. BayCurrent will see an upweight.
  • The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): State of Play

By Arun George

  • On 27 December, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced a hostile preconditional tender offer for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) at JPY11,000 per share.
  • The Board has raised several issues with the Nidec proposal through two questionnaires. Some assertions are valid, while others do not stand up to scrutiny.
  • The Board has launched an ambitious MTM plan to thwart the offer and hinted at potential competing offers. Nidec’s offer increasingly needs a bump. 

IGI Faces Headwinds: Growth Concerns, Market Risks & Uncertainties

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Steep fall in diamond prices leading to slowdown in demand for certification services since its not viable as much for a consumer as it used to be.
  • A leading jeweller in India reiterated that certification demand for diamonds is slowing down due to changing consumer preferences.
  • The International Gemmological Institute, the leading certification agency, is now facing headwinds evident from earnings growth slowdown.

DN Solutions IPO Might Skip OC—A Unique Trading Opportunity

By Sanghyun Park

  • With cautious foreign interest, DN Solutions’ big IPO deal might skip the OC and go full local for bookbuilding, setting a new trend in Korean IPOs.
  • If foreign anchor orders drop, local players gain more negotiating power, leading to aggressive bidding and potentially a way more conservative IPO price.
  • Offshore funds passing investment review without an OC could grab more volume, benefiting from local-led down-pricing without lock-up restrictions.

LS Corp: Chairman’s Words Have Big Impact on Share Price

By Douglas Kim

  • On 6 March, LS Group Chairman Koo Ja-Eun publicly stated “If you think duplicate listings are a problem, then just don’t buy the stocks after the listing.”
  • Chairman Koo’s comment was not in the best interest of the major LS Group companies including LS Electric and LS Corp that are publicly traded.
  • LS Group is preparing to list at least five unlisted affiliates including LS E-Link, Essex Solutions, LS Cable, LS MnM, and KOC Electric  in the next 1-3 years. 

COSCO Shipping Ports (1199 HK): What’s Interesting After the CKH Port Sale?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Following CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)‘s port disposal, Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK) looks interesting, given its portfolio of port projects, which spans globally.
  • Overseas ports accounted for 38.9% of its noncurrent assets. A disposal of half of such portfolio will generate HK$15.2bn of cash flow, equalling almost 89% of its market capitalisation. 
  • Even without corporate activities, its 6.4x PER, 6.7% dividend yield, and 11.8x EV/EBITDA are inexpensive. The 0.36x P/B for FY25 also deeply undervalued its assets.

Sigenergy Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

  • Sigenergy (SIG CH) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CITIC and BNP Paribas.
  • It provides renewable energy solutions, catering to 1) residential, 2) commercial, and 3) industrial applications.
  • The group markets and sells to distributors and primarily serves the European market.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 6 March (Intl. Distribution Services / PostNL | Havas | DHL)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • IDS / PostNL | CAT greenlights GBP 878.5m class action case against Royal Mail • Havas | reiterates guidance; 1 for 10 reverse stock-split; ask for approval share buyback • DHL | better than expected fourth quarter thanks to focus on yield

Fluence Corp Ltd – Smoother water ahead

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Fluence Corporation (ASX:FLC) specialises in the delivery of water and wastewater solutions in industrial, municipal and commercial industries across the globe.
  • The company has released its FY24 full year result which is in line with previously amended guidance.
  • The Q4 cashflow statement and a Q4 financial and operating update was released in January 2025 and included significant detail and guidance for FY25.

Clean Harbors Inc.: Can Its Increase In Incineration Capacity Help Alter The Playing Field?

By Baptista Research

  • Clean Harbors presented both positive and negative elements in its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, demonstrating the company’s position in the environmental and industrial services sector.
  • The company achieved a strong year with consolidated EBITDA growth of 10%, buoyed by its Environmental Services (ES) segment’s solid performance.
  • This segment marked an increase in momentum, leading to a 9% revenue growth with improved adjusted EBITDA margins of over 25%.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: JX Advanced Metals, Gensol Engineering, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, Vale Indonesia Tbk, Alamos Gold , Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings, Nicola Mining, Nutrien , Reliance Steel & Aluminum, Mec Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • JX Advance Metals IPO: Priced Reasonably but The Timing Isn’t Great
  • Gensol Engineering: Forensic Analysis
  • German Rubber Industry In The Throes Of Crisis As Relocations Loom
  • Vale Indonesia: Q4/24 Earnings Drop on Volume, Nickel Price Decline
  • Alamos Gold Inc.: Island Gold District Advancements Signaling Strategic Growth Trajectory!
  • Nanshan Aluminium Pre-IPO: Largest SEA Producer but Most of Revenue Comes from Two Customers
  • NIM: Draft Permit Received for Dominion Creek Project Bulk Sample
  • Nutrien’s Gas Price Advantage: How North America’s Edge Boosts Profits!
  • Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.: Diversified Market Exposure to Solidify As A Robust Player In Industrial Distribution Landscape!
  • MEC Co., Ltd (4971 JP): Research Update


JX Advance Metals IPO: Priced Reasonably but The Timing Isn’t Great

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • JX Advance has announced the terms for its IPO and set the pricing at ¥810-820 per share, at a much lower pricing range than previously expected ¥862 per share.
  • ENEOS is planning to offer 465.2m shares at the IPO raising around ¥377-381bn (US$2.5bn) at a market capitalisation and EV of ¥760bn and ¥857bn respectively.
  • Our SOTP valuation suggests that JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s shares are priced reasonably, however, given the negative sentiment over AI and tech stocks, we remain cautious.

Gensol Engineering: Forensic Analysis

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Gensol Engineering (GENSOL IN)’s credit rating was downgraded to default, triggering a 34% stock decline in just five days. ICRA flagged misleading financial disclosures, high promoter pledges raised serious concerns.
  • The company is grappling with delayed debt repayments, aggressive accounting policies, and uncertainty in equity infusion, impacting its ambitious EV manufacturing and solar EPC expansion plans.
  • Gensol’s governance issues, cross-default risks, and financial opacity create a high-risk scenario for investors. Management must provide clarity on debt servicing, pledged shares, and capital infusion to restore confidence.

German Rubber Industry In The Throes Of Crisis As Relocations Loom

By Vinod Nedumudy

  •  One in five companies in rubber industry mulling shifting in 2025  
  • Regulatory burdens and high energy costs among major concerns  
  •  Place ‘first-touch principle’ in EUDR, erase reverse burden of proof  

Vale Indonesia: Q4/24 Earnings Drop on Volume, Nickel Price Decline

By Graeme Cunningham

  • Vale Indonesia’s Q4/24 results came in -28% below expectations driven mainly by a revenue decline, as core costs fell, and other expenses and net financing income rose
  • The revenue drop was from by a -7.1% decline in volume and -11.5% drop in the nickel matte price, while fuel efficiency improved and fuel costs dropped overall
  • The P/B continued to slide in Q4/24 to 0.82, along with an ROE down to 1.0%, but even given the inexpensive multiple, weak nickel could weigh on the stock

Alamos Gold Inc.: Island Gold District Advancements Signaling Strategic Growth Trajectory!

By Baptista Research

  • Alamos Gold’s latest financial performance and potential future trajectory present a mixed picture of strength and challenges.
  • The company recently completed a successful year, marked by the acquisition of the Magino mine and the expansion into the Quebec region, establishing a strong foundation for future operations.
  • The acquisition of the Magino mine, adjacent to a high-grade Island Gold operation, stands out as an important strategic move that aims to create one of Canada’s largest and most cost-effective gold mining operations.

Nanshan Aluminium Pre-IPO: Largest SEA Producer but Most of Revenue Comes from Two Customers

By Nicholas Tan


NIM: Draft Permit Received for Dominion Creek Project Bulk Sample

By Atrium Research

  • Nicola announced that it received a draft permit for the 10,000t bulk sample at the Dominion Creek Mineral Project.
  • As a reminder, NIM owns a 75% economic interest in the high-grade gold and silver project with its partner High Range Exploration owning the remaining.
  • The bulk sample will be processed at Nicola’s Merritt Milling Facility providing a potential third source of ore to the mill by Q3/25.

Nutrien’s Gas Price Advantage: How North America’s Edge Boosts Profits!

By Baptista Research

  • Nutrien’s recent financial results and strategic outlook provide a complex picture of the company’s current standing and future prospects.
  • In 2024, Nutrien achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $5.4 billion, reflecting the challenges and opportunities presented by varying market conditions.
  • The year saw a decrease in fertilizer prices, which negatively impacted overall earnings despite higher volumes and improved downstream retail performance.

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.: Diversified Market Exposure to Solidify As A Robust Player In Industrial Distribution Landscape!

By Baptista Research

  • Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.’s recent earnings report provides a complex picture of its financial performance and strategic initiatives during 2024.
  • Positively, the company reported resilience in a tough market, achieving strong financial results through strategic decisions and acquisitions.
  • The company’s non-GAAP earnings per share for 2024 were $15.92, demonstrating benefits from targeted growth strategies, diverse market penetration, and strict pricing discipline.

MEC Co., Ltd (4971 JP): Research Update

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

  • MEC’s (4971 JP) reported FY24 (Dec year-end) results, producing OP of ¥4,562mil (+83.0% YoY) on sales of ¥18,234mil (+30.1% YoY).
  • FY24 Chemical segment sales rose +27.0% YoY to ¥17,478mil, thanks to 1) a steady increase in demand for chemicals used in high-end packages, and 2) a gradual recovery in demand associated with PCs, smartphones, and general servers.
  • MEC is guiding for FY25 1H OP of ¥2,250mil (-4.8% YoY) on sales of ¥9,600mil (+8.1% YoY), and full-year OP of ¥5,000mil (+9.6% YoY) on sales of ¥20,000mil (+9.7% YoY).

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Amazon.com Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Tencent, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), AGS Transact Technologies, Trimble Navigation, iQIYI Inc, Mediatek Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & US$13bn Trade
  • TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex
  • Tencent (700 HK): Risen 35% Since Our Last Buy, Good Preview for 4Q24
  • TSMC US$100bn Investment in Arizona: Some Context
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Held Press Conference Regarding Further Investment of USD$100bn in US.
  • SMIC (981.HK): Speculation About the Deepseek Rumor Does Imply Continued Creative Works in the World
  • Forensic Analysis – AGS Transact Technologies: A Story Of Financial Mismanagement
  • Trimble Inc.: Is The Strategic Pivot From Traditional Sales To A Subscription-Based Model Paying Off?
  • IQIYI Inc.: How Is Its Competitive Positioning Against Tencent Video & Short-Form Platforms?
  • MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy


Select Sector Indices and S&P Equal Weight Rebalance Preview: Capping Changes & US$13bn Trade

By Brian Freitas


TSMC Addresses U.S. Expansion Concerns: Strengthens TSMC Position & Positive for Semi Industry Capex

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC just held a press conference this evening in Taiwan regarding its expanded U.S. investment plans. TSMC said it won’t impact Taiwan investments; it is actually accelerating its Taiwan investments.
  • Additionally, we see TSMC’s aggressive U.S. expansion significantly weakening Intel’s ability to compete, as it removes one of Intel’s major differentiators–domestic U.S. production.
  • Maintain Structural Long rating on TSMC — Expanded U.S. investment fortifies the company’s global leadership. ALSO — Positive news for semiconductor manufacturing equipment companies internationally and in Taiwan. ASML, etc.

Tencent (700 HK): Risen 35% Since Our Last Buy, Good Preview for 4Q24

By Ming Lu

  • Tencent’s stock price has risen by 35% since our last buy rating. Downgrade to Hold.
  • Our EPS estimate for 2025 is 12% over the market consensus.
  • We believe both revenue growth and margin will improve in the coming 4Q24 results.

TSMC US$100bn Investment in Arizona: Some Context

By Nicolas Baratte

  • TSMC’s first 3 Fabs (capacity 80k wafer/month for US$65bn) start production from 2025 to 2030. The newly announced next 3 Fabs (90k, $100bn) should roll  out over 2030-35.
  • Given Capex in the US is 70% higher than in Taiwan, wafer price will be ~45% higher.
  • That’s probably why only 12% of TSMC EUV capacity will be in the US by 2030. Customers want more supply security but cost matters.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): TSMC Held Press Conference Regarding Further Investment of USD$100bn in US.

By Patrick Liao

  • TSMC Chairman Dr. CC Wei pointed out that TSMC builds production lines everywhere to meet customers’ demands. TSMC has never gone against this principle.  
  • On the 3rd of March, U.S. President Trump and TSMC Chairman jointly announced at the White House that TSMC would reinvest at least $100 billion in the U.S.
  • Regarding concerns from the public that TSMC might gradually shift its production focus to the U.S., TSMC made it clear that this would not happen.

SMIC (981.HK): Speculation About the Deepseek Rumor Does Imply Continued Creative Works in the World

By Patrick Liao

  • There is speculation about Deepseek’s wafer manufacturing yield issue at Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) these days.  
  • The potential concern serves as a signal for a hot topic within the company, carrying two underlying meanings.
  • Although NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is making waves in AI applications, we must not overlook the potential for continued creative developments in the world, such as Deepseek’s solution.  

Forensic Analysis – AGS Transact Technologies: A Story Of Financial Mismanagement

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • AGS Transact Technologies (AGSTRA IN)‘ stock plunged 85% in six months due to loan defaults, delayed payments, and severe cash flow issues.
  • The company is on the verge of insolvency as debt defaults, SLA breaches, and auditor concerns mount. Independent directors, executives, and key employees are resigning, signaling deep-rooted financial instability.
  • The management’s revival plan, including selling subsidiaries and restructuring loans, may be too late. The cash management business is highly sensitive to disruptions, making recovery uncertain. 

Trimble Inc.: Is The Strategic Pivot From Traditional Sales To A Subscription-Based Model Paying Off?

By Baptista Research

  • Trimble Inc. concluded its fiscal year with robust performance, exceeding the midpoint of its guidance.
  • The company reported fourth-quarter revenue of $983 million, ARR of $2.26 billion, and EPS of $0.89.
  • On an as adjusted basis, the fourth-quarter revenue increased by 9%, while gross margins significantly exceeded 70% for the first time.

IQIYI Inc.: How Is Its Competitive Positioning Against Tencent Video & Short-Form Platforms?

By Baptista Research

  • iQIYI reported a mixed set of results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024.
  • The company observed significant improvements in several operational metrics towards the end of the quarter, fueled by the strong performance of its top-tier content.
  • This uptick in content performance led to an increase in subscribing members and higher user engagement.

MWC Barcelona Showcased The 6G Showdown: MediaTek Vs. Qualcomm in the Race for Wireless Supremacy

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • The Stakes in the 6G Race: 100x Data Speeds & AI-Driven Networks
  • Qualcom’s Strategy vs. Mediatek’s Gameplan to Win the 6G Battle — Takeaways from MWC 2025 in Barcelona
  • Investment Takeaways: MediaTek vs. Qualcomm — Maintain Structural Long for Mediatek but Qualcomm Could Offer Near-Term Relative Value Play

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Daily Brief Industrials: BayCurrent Consulting , Makino Milling Machine Co, IGI (India) Limited, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, LS Corp, Cosco Shipping Ports, Sigenergy, Deutsche Post, Fluence Corp, Clean Harbors and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Probable – Less Interesting Than Before
  • Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): State of Play
  • IGI Faces Headwinds: Growth Concerns, Market Risks & Uncertainties
  • DN Solutions IPO Might Skip OC—A Unique Trading Opportunity
  • LS Corp: Chairman’s Words Have Big Impact on Share Price
  • COSCO Shipping Ports (1199 HK): What’s Interesting After the CKH Port Sale?
  • Sigenergy Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 6 March (Intl. Distribution Services / PostNL | Havas | DHL)
  • Fluence Corp Ltd – Smoother water ahead
  • Clean Harbors Inc.: Can Its Increase In Incineration Capacity Help Alter The Playing Field?


Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Probable – Less Interesting Than Before

By Travis Lundy

  • The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
  • I see one ADD and one DELETE. Fast Retailing capping is right on the border. BayCurrent will see an upweight.
  • The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): State of Play

By Arun George

  • On 27 December, Nidec Corp (6594 JP) announced a hostile preconditional tender offer for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) at JPY11,000 per share.
  • The Board has raised several issues with the Nidec proposal through two questionnaires. Some assertions are valid, while others do not stand up to scrutiny.
  • The Board has launched an ambitious MTM plan to thwart the offer and hinted at potential competing offers. Nidec’s offer increasingly needs a bump. 

IGI Faces Headwinds: Growth Concerns, Market Risks & Uncertainties

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Steep fall in diamond prices leading to slowdown in demand for certification services since its not viable as much for a consumer as it used to be.
  • A leading jeweller in India reiterated that certification demand for diamonds is slowing down due to changing consumer preferences.
  • The International Gemmological Institute, the leading certification agency, is now facing headwinds evident from earnings growth slowdown.

DN Solutions IPO Might Skip OC—A Unique Trading Opportunity

By Sanghyun Park

  • With cautious foreign interest, DN Solutions’ big IPO deal might skip the OC and go full local for bookbuilding, setting a new trend in Korean IPOs.
  • If foreign anchor orders drop, local players gain more negotiating power, leading to aggressive bidding and potentially a way more conservative IPO price.
  • Offshore funds passing investment review without an OC could grab more volume, benefiting from local-led down-pricing without lock-up restrictions.

LS Corp: Chairman’s Words Have Big Impact on Share Price

By Douglas Kim

  • On 6 March, LS Group Chairman Koo Ja-Eun publicly stated “If you think duplicate listings are a problem, then just don’t buy the stocks after the listing.”
  • Chairman Koo’s comment was not in the best interest of the major LS Group companies including LS Electric and LS Corp that are publicly traded.
  • LS Group is preparing to list at least five unlisted affiliates including LS E-Link, Essex Solutions, LS Cable, LS MnM, and KOC Electric  in the next 1-3 years. 

COSCO Shipping Ports (1199 HK): What’s Interesting After the CKH Port Sale?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Following CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)‘s port disposal, Cosco Shipping Ports (1199 HK) looks interesting, given its portfolio of port projects, which spans globally.
  • Overseas ports accounted for 38.9% of its noncurrent assets. A disposal of half of such portfolio will generate HK$15.2bn of cash flow, equalling almost 89% of its market capitalisation. 
  • Even without corporate activities, its 6.4x PER, 6.7% dividend yield, and 11.8x EV/EBITDA are inexpensive. The 0.36x P/B for FY25 also deeply undervalued its assets.

Sigenergy Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

  • Sigenergy (SIG CH) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CITIC and BNP Paribas.
  • It provides renewable energy solutions, catering to 1) residential, 2) commercial, and 3) industrial applications.
  • The group markets and sells to distributors and primarily serves the European market.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 6 March (Intl. Distribution Services / PostNL | Havas | DHL)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • IDS / PostNL | CAT greenlights GBP 878.5m class action case against Royal Mail • Havas | reiterates guidance; 1 for 10 reverse stock-split; ask for approval share buyback • DHL | better than expected fourth quarter thanks to focus on yield

Fluence Corp Ltd – Smoother water ahead

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Fluence Corporation (ASX:FLC) specialises in the delivery of water and wastewater solutions in industrial, municipal and commercial industries across the globe.
  • The company has released its FY24 full year result which is in line with previously amended guidance.
  • The Q4 cashflow statement and a Q4 financial and operating update was released in January 2025 and included significant detail and guidance for FY25.

Clean Harbors Inc.: Can Its Increase In Incineration Capacity Help Alter The Playing Field?

By Baptista Research

  • Clean Harbors presented both positive and negative elements in its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, demonstrating the company’s position in the environmental and industrial services sector.
  • The company achieved a strong year with consolidated EBITDA growth of 10%, buoyed by its Environmental Services (ES) segment’s solid performance.
  • This segment marked an increase in momentum, leading to a 9% revenue growth with improved adjusted EBITDA margins of over 25%.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Seven & I Holdings, Sun Art Retail, VGI PCL, Astra International, Nongshim Co Ltd, Trial Holdings, Booking Holdings, Kitex Garments and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • 7&I (3382) Possibility of YUUUUUGE Buyback?
  • 7&I (3382) – A Starting Point for the Standalone Plan – The Good, The Bad, The Ugly
  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Board’s Plan to Unlock Value Is a Stop-Gap Measure
  • Sun Art (6808 HK): IFA Says MGO Is Not Fair. Rightfully So
  • Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: One Intra-Review Replacement Soon! Three Regular Changes Later
  • Astra International (ASII IJ) – Resilience in Motion
  • Nongshim Raises Instant Noodles Prices
  • Trial a Top 10 Retailer After Seiyu Purchase from KKR (With Big Synergies)
  • Booking Holdings: An Insight Into Its Merchant Model Expansion & Payment Innovations!
  • The Beat Ideas: Kitex Garments- A Global Inflant Wear Play


7&I (3382) Possibility of YUUUUUGE Buyback?

By Travis Lundy

  • Last Thurs the MBO died. Tuesday an article said the ACT deal had died. Then 7&i denied that. Yesterday an article said Bain’s York Holdings deal would be approved today.
  • That meant a Board meeting which would approve receipt of ~¥700bn of cash. What to do with it?
  • Just now, Bloomberg says Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP)‘s board will consider a massive buyback. THAT is the capital allocation news my last piece suggested necessary. It’s HUGE.

7&I (3382) – A Starting Point for the Standalone Plan – The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

By Travis Lundy


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Board’s Plan to Unlock Value Is a Stop-Gap Measure

By Arun George

  • The Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) Board announced a plan to unlock and distribute significant value to shareholders.
  • The initial excitement focused on the positives of leadership changes, US Assets IPO, a higher-than-expected valuation for the Superstore Business and a considerable buyback. 
  • The negatives of a long-dated buyback, inevitable rejection of the Couche-Tard offer, an uncertain US Assets IPO and ongoing HoldCo discount suggest the initial excitement will fizzle out. 

Sun Art (6808 HK): IFA Says MGO Is Not Fair. Rightfully So

By David Blennerhassett

  • Late December 2024, Alibaba (9988 HK) entered an SPA with DCP Capital to offload its 78.7% stake in Sun Art (6808 HK) at HK$1.38/share, a 44.4% discount to last close.
  • The SPA completed on the 27th Feb, triggering an unconditional MGO, also at HK$1.38. FWIW, a deferred payment option raises the Offer Price to a maximum of HK$1.58/share. 
  • The Composite Document is now out, with a Closing Date for tendering on the 27th March. This won’t be extended. The IFA (Somerley) says NOT fair & reasonable.

Quiddity Leaderboard SET50 Jun25: One Intra-Review Replacement Soon! Three Regular Changes Later

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The SET50 index tracks the performance of the top 50 largest and most liquid names listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs/DELs for SET 50 in the run up to the index rebal event in June 2025.
  • The GULF-INTUCH M&A event could trigger an intra-review change within the next few weeks. Then there could be more regular index changes in June 2025.

Astra International (ASII IJ) – Resilience in Motion

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Astra International recently released finely balanced set of FY2024 results, with weaker auto sales offset by stronger 2W and financial segment performance, with other segments also performing above expectations.
  • Financial services growth was driven by stronger multifinance growth, whilst the heavy equipment division saw stronger growth from mining contracting and gold offsetting slower growth from coal mining.
  • Astra continues investing in sustainable energy, nickel, and healthcare and looks for new opportunities. Valuations remain attractive on less than 6x forward PER and yield > 8%. 

Nongshim Raises Instant Noodles Prices

By Douglas Kim

  • Nongshim announced that it plans to increase the prices of its instant noodles and snack products starting next week. 
  • Nongshim plans to raise the retail prices of 14 instant noodle products by 7.2% on average and three snack products by 7.4% starting Monday (10 March).
  • We estimate the consensus to raise their earnings estimates by 5-10%+ in 2025 and 2026, driven by the higher product prices of major instant noodles and snacks. 

Trial a Top 10 Retailer After Seiyu Purchase from KKR (With Big Synergies)

By Michael Causton

  • Trial was already one of Japan’s leading discount retailers with a strong network of stores down south in Japan although rather low margins.
  • Buying Seiyu transforms this local retailer into a national champion and one of the top 10, with a highly complementary set of stores, product expertise, warehouses and tech.
  • Together, the two will now be able to take on Aeon, Seven & I, PPI and other major retailers in building the first true national grocery chains in Japan.

Booking Holdings: An Insight Into Its Merchant Model Expansion & Payment Innovations!

By Baptista Research

  • Booking Holdings, a major player in the global online travel industry, reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 financial results, showcasing a strong performance across several key metrics.
  • The company achieved a 13% year-over-year growth in room nights during the fourth quarter, surpassing its expectations and reflecting robust demand across all major regions.
  • The growth in room nights contributed to a 17% increase in gross bookings and 14% revenue growth, both exceeding the company’s prior guidance.

The Beat Ideas: Kitex Garments- A Global Inflant Wear Play

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Kitex Garments (KTG IN) is the world’s second-largest manufacturer of ready-to-wear clothing for infants and children.
  • KGL is expanding its manufacturing capabilities by establishing two new integrated units in Warangal and Sitarampur, Telangana which will increase capacity to 10.68L pieces per day.
  • Kitex Garments is also planning to merge with Kitex Childrenswear Limited, which sell processed fabrics, rental agreements for factory premises, and special job work contracts for KGL.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co, Exact Sciences, Biomarin Pharmaceutical, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, Kestra Medical Technologies, UMP Healthcare and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Dwindling International Revenue on Competition; No Near-Term Respite
  • Exact Sciences Corporation: Is The Oncology Product Pipeline Development to Capture A Lion’s Share of the Market?
  • BioMarin Pharmaceutical: Expansion of VOXZOGO & Enzyme Replacement Therapy Growth Propelling Our ‘Buy’ Rating!
  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals: An Insight Into Commercial Expansion of Next-Generation ASO Therapies and Wainua’s Market Potential!
  • Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS): IPO Pops 35% at Open, Holds Gains Amidst Volatile Backdrop
  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Solid H1 2025, Cost-Cutting Initiatives Bearing Fruit


Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB): Dwindling International Revenue on Competition; No Near-Term Respite

By Tina Banerjee

  • Bumrungrad Hospital Pub Co (BH TB) reported marginal revenue growth in 2024, with margins expanding on lower expenses. Revenue from international patients witnesses contraction, while domestic patient volumes provide traction.
  • Competition from peers like BDMS remains a concern in near term. With the entire Ramadan period falling in 1Q25, Bumrungrad’s international patient revenue is expected to remain muted in 1Q25.
  • The share prices of Bumrungrad are expected to remain under pressure with the commencement of operation at BIH Phuket being the only near-term trigger for the company.

Exact Sciences Corporation: Is The Oncology Product Pipeline Development to Capture A Lion’s Share of the Market?

By Baptista Research

  • Exact Sciences recently reported its fourth-quarter 2024 financial results, showcasing a mix of both positive momentum and certain challenges.
  • For the full year, Exact Sciences achieved a core revenue growth of 11%, reaching $2.75 billion, and notably expanded its adjusted EBITDA by nearly 48%.
  • The company also doubled its free cash flow and ended the year with a robust $1.04 billion in cash and securities.

BioMarin Pharmaceutical: Expansion of VOXZOGO & Enzyme Replacement Therapy Growth Propelling Our ‘Buy’ Rating!

By Baptista Research

  • BioMarin Pharmaceutical reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2024.
  • The company recorded an impressive 18% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching a total of $2.85 billion for the year.
  • This growth was primarily driven by the strong performance of its commercial portfolio, particularly VOXZOGO for achondroplasia, which saw a 56% increase in revenue year-over-year.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals: An Insight Into Commercial Expansion of Next-Generation ASO Therapies and Wainua’s Market Potential!

By Baptista Research

  • Ionis Pharmaceuticals, a biotech company with a focus on RNA-targeted drug discovery, has transitioned into a fully integrated commercial stage entity, marked by its first independent product launch of TRYNGOLZA.
  • This drug, approved by the FDA for familial chylomicronemia syndrome (FCS), aims to reduce triglyceride levels and the risk of acute pancreatitis.
  • The launch moved quickly, getting the medication to patients within weeks of approval.

Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS): IPO Pops 35% at Open, Holds Gains Amidst Volatile Backdrop

By IPO Boutique

  • Kestra Medical Technologies priced 11.9mm shares (upsized from 10.0mm) at $17.00 ($1 Above the $14-$16 range) and opened at $22.95 for a gain of 35%.
  • Kestra Medical Technologies (KMTS US) is the second medical device company to go public with success in 2025.
  • The equity capital markets area is still under scrutiny as a whole following the lackluster debuts of the two large IPOs in 2025.

UMP Healthcare (722 HK): Solid H1 2025, Cost-Cutting Initiatives Bearing Fruit

By Sameer Taneja

  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK) reported a Revenue/PAT growth of -1.2%/45.7% YoY as cost-cutting initiatives bore fruit for the company in H1 FY25. 
  • Net cash and investments reached 294 mn HKD (representing 88% of the market capitalization) due to robust operating profits and excellent working capital control. 
  • Trading at 7.7x PE and 0.4x EV-EBITDA, with an 8% dividend yield, there is massive value in the name. The key lies in improving ROCE, which remains low- single digit. 

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Daily Brief Financials: Japan Post Bank, Hang Seng Index, Jardine Matheson Holdings, Insignia Financial, CapitaLand Ascendas REIT, China Vanke and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Post Bank US$4bn Deal Updates – Needs to Correct More. Discount Vs Deal Performance Analysis
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in PUT Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (06-Mar-2025): 7/10 Senior Directors Confident in Data Centres, But Talent Shortage Will Widen
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in CALL Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts
  • Insignia Financial (IFL AU): The Field Narrows As Bain And CC Capital Bump Terms
  • CLAR SP: Bullish in Singapore Industrial and Strong Asset Portfolio to Drive Shareholders Returns
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Japan Post Bank US$4bn Deal Updates – Needs to Correct More. Discount Vs Deal Performance Analysis

By Sumeet Singh

  • Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
  • JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
  • We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about updates and look at discounts vs performance for past secondary deals.

Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in PUT Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) put options show concentrated positioning at the 19,000 and 20,000 strike levels.
  • Traders continue to establish new positions approximately 15%-20% below current market levels, suggesting protection against major market corrections rather than minor pullbacks. The focus is on near-term risk.
  • Implied volatility has remained stable at 25-30% over the past two weeks, consistent with a broadly sideways movement in the index itself.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (06-Mar-2025): 7/10 Senior Directors Confident in Data Centres, But Talent Shortage Will Widen

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • 70% of Senior Directors are confident in data centres, showing faith in their reliability and efficiency despite challenges.
  • HPL’s acquisition of InterContinental Auckland for $102M marks its entry into the New Zealand market, expanding its portfolio.
  • Stuart Grant’s appointment as head of Hongkong Land’s $8B Shanghai project highlights the company’s commitment to growth and development in the region.

Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in CALL Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Market traders of Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) call options maintain significant holdings in lower strikes, with notable concentration at the 20,000 strike level.
  • Open interest data reveals significant increase in open interest for 25,000 and 26,000 strike calls since late February, reflecting active trading as traders built new positions.
  • Despite increased trading activity and changes in market positioning, implied volatility has remained stable at 25-30% over the past two weeks, reflecting a consistent market sentiment.

Insignia Financial (IFL AU): The Field Narrows As Bain And CC Capital Bump Terms

By David Blennerhassett

  • Bain Capital and CC Capital have both bumped indicative terms to $5/share,  a 63% premium to Insignia Financial (IFL AU)’s undisturbed closing share price of $3.06 on December 11 2024.
  • Both suitors have been granted four weeks of exclusivity. Confirmatory due diligence is expected to be completed within six weeks. IFL’s board is supportive at A$5/share or more. 
  • Where’s Brookfield on all this? A local media source previously reported that at least one suitor was losing interest. 

CLAR SP: Bullish in Singapore Industrial and Strong Asset Portfolio to Drive Shareholders Returns

By Jacob Cheng

  • CLAR is Singapore’s largest industrial REIT with S$16bn of assets across key markets with exposure in business parks, logistics and data centers
  • We think CLAR has a well diversified and resilient asset portfolio which can withstand any external shocks and drive organic growth
  • We think there is some interest rate risk but in general the impact is limited.  S-REITs were over-corrected YTD and valuation is not demanding

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Longfor Group, Cikarang Listrindo
  • The Chinese government has announced a GDP growth target of “around 5%” for 2025 (matching the growth target and actual level achieved in 2024), according to Premier Li Qiang’s annual government work report unveiled during the Two Sessions meeting.
  • Meanwhile, the government has raised the fiscal budget deficit target to 4% of GDP (vs. 3% previously), and lowered its annual CPI inflation target to “around 2%” (reflecting downward pressure on prices).

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