Smartkarma Daily Briefs

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments – Ola Electric (1700674D IN) and Mixue Group (MIX HK) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments – Aoki Super (9977 JP), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK), Vinda International (3331 HK).

Temu Versus Dollar Tree: More Online & Offline Adventures in Pursuit of Ultra-Cheap Stuff

By Daniel Hellberg

A recent report shows apparent gains by Temu against US “dollar” store chains
In this insight we introduce the “dollar” store concept and share our experiences
We conclude that Temu & SHEIN don’t likely view some categories as priorities

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Jan 08

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Yanlord Land

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Yanlord Land

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

China Jinmao Holdings
Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
Yanlord Land

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Jan 08

Daily Brief Event-Driven: A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024): STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024): STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving
FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in March
Inabata & Co (8098) – LARGE Equity Secondary Offering by Sumitomo Chemical
LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves
Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jan) – Weiqiao Textile, IRC, Aoki Super, Hollysys, OreCorp, Tietto, Pact
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still Strongly Bought
Hollysys (HOLI US): Vote on 8 February as Hopes of a Rival Offer Fade
EQD | Tears and Despair for the Hang Seng Index May Not Be Over (Yet)
TDCX (TDCX US): Laurent Junique’s NBIO
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jan 2024): Big Names Sold, Banks Bought

A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024): STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving

The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND flows flat/light and NORTHBOUND flows a significant net buy, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 200+bp.
STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just last week. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.

FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in March

With a few weeks to go in the review period, CGN Power (1816 HK) and Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK) could be added to the ETF in March.
China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) and Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) are potential deletions while there is another stock close to deletion zone.
There are a lot of shorts on Yankuang Energy in terms of days of ADV and as a percentage of float while short interest on the other stocks is lower.

Inabata & Co (8098) – LARGE Equity Secondary Offering by Sumitomo Chemical

On Friday after the close, Inabata & Co (8098 JP) announced Sumitomo Chemical (4005 JP) would sell down a large stake in a ~$200mm secondary equity offering.
Mizuho Bank’s Retirement Benefit Trust account sells down too. Sumitomo Chem will keep 10+% and other crossholders remain.
This is “big” at 80 days of ADV with limited early index demand, but a 10% fall would make this cheap enough to buy vs Peers.

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.

Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jan) – Weiqiao Textile, IRC, Aoki Super, Hollysys, OreCorp, Tietto, Pact

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – Aoki Super (9977 JP), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU), Adbri (ABC AU).
Lowest spreads – Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), T&K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), A2B Australia (A2B AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP).

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still Strongly Bought

SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis, still. Hs gave up some ground vs As in Week One.
SOUTHBOUND saw HK$14.4bn of net IN-flows in the 4-day week to 5 Jan 2024. Total flows were HK$96bn.
SOUTHBOUND start the year by buying ETFs, high-div SOEs like China Mobile and CNOOC, coal names, and sports/consumer names.

Hollysys (HOLI US): Vote on 8 February as Hopes of a Rival Offer Fade

Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) shareholders vote on Ascendent’s US$26.50 offer on 8 February. The special meeting will not be held as the 30% shareholding threshold is no longer satisfied.
The proxy statement shows that despite Dazheng Consoritum’s competing public campaign, it has withdrawn its court injunction and has struggled to provide proof of financing.
The proxy statement suggests that the special committee ran a fair process. While shareholders should approve Ascendent’s offer, the 0.2% gross spread indicates an unfavourable risk/reward profile.

EQD | Tears and Despair for the Hang Seng Index May Not Be Over (Yet)

By Nico Rosti

The HSI INDEX index closed December (barely) up, no rally, nullifying completely the MONTHLY time bar count pattern suggesting a LONG MONTHLY trade (the 1-bar reversal has already happened).
The index is approaching the Q3 support at 16449. A WEEKLY bounce is possible from that level, but we don’t know if the bounce can last more than 1 week.
If the index keeps going down this week, it could find support between 16500 and 16000. A longer correction could end in the 15800-15600 price area. Use tight stops.

TDCX (TDCX US): Laurent Junique’s NBIO

By David Blennerhassett

TDCX (TDCX US), a Singapore-headquartered digital customer experience (CX) provider, has announced a preliminary non-binding proposal from Laurent Junique, founder/CEO, and largest shareholder (98.3% of the voting power).
Junique is offering US$6.60/ADS, a 39% premium to the 30-day VWAP, but a 63% discount to its IPO price a little over two years ago.
One issue dogging TDCX is the key man risk given Junique’s almost absolute control. Now he’s trying to take the company private on the cheap.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jan 2024): Big Names Sold, Banks Bought

By From 0 to 1 in the Stock Market

The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 5.5bn of A-shares on lighter average activity. BIG net selling flows on the first day of the year for HK going north.
Looking at the change in the weekly position charts over the last year is striking (easiest in the Sectors table to start). Still.

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Jan 08

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba (BABA US): No Where to Go but Up and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Alibaba (BABA US): No Where to Go but Up
Anta Sports (2020 HK): In-Line 4Q23 Operational Update + Submission Of Amer Sports Listing On NYSE
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Contraction Continues; ASE & Chunghwa at Historically Rare Levels
Anta Sports (2020 HK): An Updated Look at Implications of Amer Sports’ IPO
China Consumption Weekly (8 Jan 2024): BYD, Li Auto, PDD, AliPay, Mixue, Baidu
Caregen (214370 KS): ProGsterol May Rebound in 2024; Ophthalmic and COVID-19 Pipeline To Watch
2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK)- New Business Progress Reinforces Optimistic Outlook
2023 Shareholder Letter
Comfortdelgro (CD): The Chinese Is Back
Millennium Services Group Ltd – Bid Implies an EV/EBITDA Multiple In-Line with Peers

Alibaba (BABA US): No Where to Go but Up

By Eric Chen

Alibaba is transforming into a leaner, more efficient and more profitable technology company with sharpened focus on core business and shareholder return.
While we don’t expect growth to define the company in the near future, high single-digit P/E more than compensates for the lack of it.
This worst-performing and cheapest technology stock among global peers stands a big chance of staging a comeback in 2024 in our view.

Anta Sports (2020 HK): In-Line 4Q23 Operational Update + Submission Of Amer Sports Listing On NYSE

By Steve Zhou, CFA

Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) announced a set of in-line 4Q23 operating data.
In addition, the company has filed a registration statement with the U.S. SEC on January 4 for a proposed listing of Amer Sports on the New York Stock Exchange.
Anta currently trades at a forward PE of 17x based on estimated 2024 earnings, compared to a historical forward PE of 24x since 2017.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Contraction Continues; ASE & Chunghwa at Historically Rare Levels

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

TSMC: 7.7% Premium — Spread Has Fallen Further, Likely Can Short a Bit Further
ASE: Drops to 5.1% Premium — Can Consider Going Long at Current Level Due to Maxed Headroom & ASE’s Strong Advanced Chip Packaging Story
CHT: Trading at -0.9% Discount — Good Level to Long the Spread, Rare Discount

Anta Sports (2020 HK): An Updated Look at Implications of Amer Sports’ IPO

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Amer Sports, 52.7% owned by Anta Sports Products (2020 HK), has finally filed a US IPO registration. This is positive for Anta Sports as it can realise Amer’s value.
Reported losses at Amer have increased YoY for 9M23 due to higher finance cost. But, its gross, operating, and adjusted EBITDA margins have all recorded solid improvements.
Assuming Amer is listed at the sector’s average FY23 P/S of 1.6x, Anta Sports may book deemed disposal gain of HK$13.5bn, or about 6.8% of its market capitalisation.

China Consumption Weekly (8 Jan 2024): BYD, Li Auto, PDD, AliPay, Mixue, Baidu

By Ming Lu

Chinese NEV (new energy vehicle) producers’ deliveries grew rapidly in 2023.
PDD closed most “local life” businesses, including hotel booking, movie ticketing, etc.
Jack Ma is no longer the controller of AliPay, the largest online payment app.

Caregen (214370 KS): ProGsterol May Rebound in 2024; Ophthalmic and COVID-19 Pipeline To Watch

By Tina Banerjee

Riding on multiple export contracts, Caregen Co Ltd (214370 KS) was confident of achieving KRW60–100B revenue from ProGsterol in 2023. However, during 9M23, ProGsterol clocked revenue of KRW8.5B.
ProGsterol should rebound in this year, with the resumption of registration process in each country. Direct entry in the U.S. should be the strong catalyst for ProGsterol revenue this year.
Caregen is developing an eye drop for wet macular degeneration. This is in phase 1 trial. The compay is preparing for phase 2 trial for COVID-19 nasal spray in Israel.

2024 High Conviction Update: Innovent (1801.HK)- New Business Progress Reinforces Optimistic Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Innovent has launched head-to-head phase III clinical trial of Mazdutide and Semaglutide. If the challenge is successful, it will have milestone significance. Domestic sales of Mazdutide will look very promising.
Innovent received negative news on CEACAM5 ADC/KRAS G12C.When independent R&D cannot be relied upon, Innovent has to seek new sources of growth to make up for the remaining sales gap.
There’s nothing wrong with Innovent’s development strategy by balancing both success rate and efficiency, although Innovent is hard to become a leader in cutting-edge R&D. We remain optimistic on Innovent.

2023 Shareholder Letter

The last twelve months were, market-wise, interesting. Multiple things have happened that contributed to changes in my thinking-process.
Refining thoughts and the mental mechanism I utilize to approach portfolio management should lead to success, or at least that is my hypothesis.
Continuous learning allows for building more solid premises. Given time, compound interest sharpens them to the point where chances of error are minimum.

Comfortdelgro (CD): The Chinese Is Back

By Henry Soediarko

The share price has increased by around 20% since mid-last year.
A new revenue stream from the booking fee through the Zig app and calls that, albeit small, it was never possible to share upside with cabbies before.
Extension from 15 days to 30 days visa-free for Chinese tourists to come to Singapore on early 2024.

Millennium Services Group Ltd – Bid Implies an EV/EBITDA Multiple In-Line with Peers

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

Human services company Millennium Services Group Ltd (ASX:MIL) has entered a Scheme of Arrangement with an entity associated with Softbank Robotics Singapore for the acquisition of 100% of shares at $1.15/share cash.
Shareholders also have the option to accept a mix of cash and scrip in the new unlisted entity, with certain management committing not less than a total of 30% for this option.
The bid price represents an 89% premium to the last RaaS update note (October 23) and 360% premium from July 1, 2023.

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Jan 08

Daily Brief Macro: 2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong – Part 3 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong – Part 3
What Growth Stock Price Action Reveals About Rate Expectations
Charting Beyond the Sanguine Stock Market
Liquidity Outlook Supportive for Risky Assets as Stubborn Yield Curve Inversion Requires Resolution
[TW2] US Equities Stutter as Sentiments Ease in Election Heavy Year (W/E 5th Jan 2024)
Will Relapse of Eurozone Inflation Propel Euro Against the Dollar?

2024 High Conviction Idea: The Case for a Rotation Out of Japan into Hong Kong – Part 3

By Rikki Malik

Risk-Reward now skewed towards reward in the Hong Kong market.
Barbell strategy with both high-beta and lower volatility dividend stocks.
Some initial ideas included to add or start a portfolio incorporating HK stocks.

What Growth Stock Price Action Reveals About Rate Expectations

By Cam Hui

A divergence has appeared between the top-down and bottom-up expectations of growth.
The top-down consensus is a soft landing, while the bottom-up consensus is no landing, which could put upward pressure on inflation and interest rates.
Investors need to closely monitor these developments as the market could be rattled by a transitory disinflation narrative and a higher-for-longer monetary policy response.

Charting Beyond the Sanguine Stock Market

By Thomas Lam

The upcoming US elections and eventual Fed pivot may sway the stock market positively
But the different states of the US business cycle can prospectively instigate different equity market outcomes
Hence, it is important to monitor the roughly coincident or almost contemporaneous risk of a recession in the US for potential clues

Liquidity Outlook Supportive for Risky Assets as Stubborn Yield Curve Inversion Requires Resolution

By Said Desaque

The mechanisms that drive yield curve steepening in 2024 will have important implications for financial asset returns, notably lower short-term interest rates have historically favoured bonds versus equities.
Yield curve steepening due to faster economic growth will be bullish for equities due to upward revisions to profit expectations across all sectors of the US equity market.
Depletion of the Treasury’s General Account at the Fed and lower participation in the Reverse Repo Programme will boost financial accommodation in 2024, thereby supporting risky assets.

[TW2] US Equities Stutter as Sentiments Ease in Election Heavy Year (W/E 5th Jan 2024)

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

US equities snapped a 9-week consecutive winning streak. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones clocked their worst start to a year since 2016.
Crude Oil Futures rallied 4.9% on fears of rising conflicts across the Suez Canal. All other major commodities closed lower during the first trading week of the year.
Half the world population and one-third of the Countries vote in 2024. Seventy countries will hold elections. Portfolio managers must pay more attention to politics than before.

Will Relapse of Eurozone Inflation Propel Euro Against the Dollar?

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

Eurozone is exposed to the risk of inflation relapse on continuing geopolitical risks. Potential energy and goods inflation will force the ECB to defer its rate cuts.
Inflation rose 2.9% YoY reversing a 2-year low (2.4%) observed in November. Core inflation, softened to 3.4% marking its lowest point since March 2022.
US headline job numbers look healthy. Details spell trouble. Payroll data was revised lower by 71k for Oct & Nov. Average work week contracted, and participation rate declined.

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Jan 08

Daily Brief Australia: Millennium Services Group Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Millennium Services Group Ltd – Bid Implies an EV/EBITDA Multiple In-Line with Peers

Millennium Services Group Ltd – Bid Implies an EV/EBITDA Multiple In-Line with Peers

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

Human services company Millennium Services Group Ltd (ASX:MIL) has entered a Scheme of Arrangement with an entity associated with Softbank Robotics Singapore for the acquisition of 100% of shares at $1.15/share cash.
Shareholders also have the option to accept a mix of cash and scrip in the new unlisted entity, with certain management committing not less than a total of 30% for this option.
The bid price represents an 89% premium to the last RaaS update note (October 23) and 360% premium from July 1, 2023.

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Jan 08

Daily Brief South Korea: Caregen Co Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

Caregen (214370 KS): ProGsterol May Rebound in 2024; Ophthalmic and COVID-19 Pipeline To Watch

Caregen (214370 KS): ProGsterol May Rebound in 2024; Ophthalmic and COVID-19 Pipeline To Watch

By Tina Banerjee

Riding on multiple export contracts, Caregen Co Ltd (214370 KS) was confident of achieving KRW60–100B revenue from ProGsterol in 2023. However, during 9M23, ProGsterol clocked revenue of KRW8.5B.
ProGsterol should rebound in this year, with the resumption of registration process in each country. Direct entry in the U.S. should be the strong catalyst for ProGsterol revenue this year.
Caregen is developing an eye drop for wet macular degeneration. This is in phase 1 trial. The compay is preparing for phase 2 trial for COVID-19 nasal spray in Israel.

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✓ Company Data and News
✓ Events & Webinars

Jan 08

Daily Brief Singapore: Comfortdelgro Corp, Yanlord Land and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Comfortdelgro (CD): The Chinese Is Back
Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Yanlord Land

Comfortdelgro (CD): The Chinese Is Back

By Henry Soediarko

The share price has increased by around 20% since mid-last year.
A new revenue stream from the booking fee through the Zig app and calls that, albeit small, it was never possible to share upside with cabbies before.
Extension from 15 days to 30 days visa-free for Chinese tourists to come to Singapore on early 2024.

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust, Yanlord Land

By Charles Macgregor

China Jinmao Holdings
Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
Yanlord Land

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Jan 08

Daily Brief Indonesia: Tower Bersama Infrastructure and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.

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The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

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Jan 08

Daily Brief China: Alibaba (ADR), CNOOC Ltd, Wuxi Biologics, Anta Sports Products, Weiqiao Textile Co, China Mobile, Hang Seng Index, PDD Holdings, BYD and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Alibaba (BABA US): No Where to Go but Up
A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024): STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving
FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in March
Anta Sports (2020 HK): In-Line 4Q23 Operational Update + Submission Of Amer Sports Listing On NYSE
Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jan) – Weiqiao Textile, IRC, Aoki Super, Hollysys, OreCorp, Tietto, Pact
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still Strongly Bought
Anta Sports (2020 HK): An Updated Look at Implications of Amer Sports’ IPO
EQD | Tears and Despair for the Hang Seng Index May Not Be Over (Yet)
Temu Versus Dollar Tree: More Online & Offline Adventures in Pursuit of Ultra-Cheap Stuff
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jan 2024): Big Names Sold, Banks Bought

Alibaba (BABA US): No Where to Go but Up

By Eric Chen

Alibaba is transforming into a leaner, more efficient and more profitable technology company with sharpened focus on core business and shareholder return.
While we don’t expect growth to define the company in the near future, high single-digit P/E more than compensates for the lack of it.
This worst-performing and cheapest technology stock among global peers stands a big chance of staging a comeback in 2024 in our view.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 5 Jan 2024): STAY Long Hs Vs As: A Premia Still Wide, High Div SOEs Moving

The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND flows flat/light and NORTHBOUND flows a significant net buy, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 200+bp.
STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year. 52wk wide discounts were just last week. Wide A/H premia in renewables space look vulnerable.

FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Changes in March

With a few weeks to go in the review period, CGN Power (1816 HK) and Yankuang Energy Group (1171 HK) could be added to the ETF in March.
China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) and Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) are potential deletions while there is another stock close to deletion zone.
There are a lot of shorts on Yankuang Energy in terms of days of ADV and as a percentage of float while short interest on the other stocks is lower.

Anta Sports (2020 HK): In-Line 4Q23 Operational Update + Submission Of Amer Sports Listing On NYSE

By Steve Zhou, CFA

Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) announced a set of in-line 4Q23 operating data.
In addition, the company has filed a registration statement with the U.S. SEC on January 4 for a proposed listing of Amer Sports on the New York Stock Exchange.
Anta currently trades at a forward PE of 17x based on estimated 2024 earnings, compared to a historical forward PE of 24x since 2017.

Merger Arb Mondays (08 Jan) – Weiqiao Textile, IRC, Aoki Super, Hollysys, OreCorp, Tietto, Pact

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads – Aoki Super (9977 JP), Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU), Adbri (ABC AU).
Lowest spreads – Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), T&K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), A2B Australia (A2B AU), Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP).

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jan 2024); High Div SOEs Still Strongly Bought

SOUTHBOUND flows showing momentum tendencies this past week on a single-stock basis, still. Hs gave up some ground vs As in Week One.
SOUTHBOUND saw HK$14.4bn of net IN-flows in the 4-day week to 5 Jan 2024. Total flows were HK$96bn.
SOUTHBOUND start the year by buying ETFs, high-div SOEs like China Mobile and CNOOC, coal names, and sports/consumer names.

Anta Sports (2020 HK): An Updated Look at Implications of Amer Sports’ IPO

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Amer Sports, 52.7% owned by Anta Sports Products (2020 HK), has finally filed a US IPO registration. This is positive for Anta Sports as it can realise Amer’s value.
Reported losses at Amer have increased YoY for 9M23 due to higher finance cost. But, its gross, operating, and adjusted EBITDA margins have all recorded solid improvements.
Assuming Amer is listed at the sector’s average FY23 P/S of 1.6x, Anta Sports may book deemed disposal gain of HK$13.5bn, or about 6.8% of its market capitalisation.

EQD | Tears and Despair for the Hang Seng Index May Not Be Over (Yet)

By Nico Rosti

The HSI INDEX index closed December (barely) up, no rally, nullifying completely the MONTHLY time bar count pattern suggesting a LONG MONTHLY trade (the 1-bar reversal has already happened).
The index is approaching the Q3 support at 16449. A WEEKLY bounce is possible from that level, but we don’t know if the bounce can last more than 1 week.
If the index keeps going down this week, it could find support between 16500 and 16000. A longer correction could end in the 15800-15600 price area. Use tight stops.

Temu Versus Dollar Tree: More Online & Offline Adventures in Pursuit of Ultra-Cheap Stuff

By Daniel Hellberg

A recent report shows apparent gains by Temu against US “dollar” store chains
In this insight we introduce the “dollar” store concept and share our experiences
We conclude that Temu & SHEIN don’t likely view some categories as priorities

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 5 Jan 2024): Big Names Sold, Banks Bought