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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Singapore: Jardine Cycle & Carriage and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • JCNC Is Still Overstretched Vs. Astra

JCNC Is Still Overstretched Vs. Astra

By David Blennerhassett

  • Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP) is currently trading at a ~12% discount to NAV, just outside its narrowest post-Covid.
  • A key catalyst for the recent narrowing was JCNC’s inclusion in the SIMSCI Index at the end of last month.
  • JCNC is expensive here – relative to historical values –  and from an implied stub perspective.

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Daily Brief India: Dish TV India and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Dish TV: Finale Still Awaits

Dish TV: Finale Still Awaits

By Nitin Mangal

  • Dish TV India (DITV IN) has been under the limelight for quite a while. ever since the legal tussle with shareholders.
  • The last six months have seen several events happening at the corporate governance level; the trials of churn in board and the required shareholders approvals has troubled the company.
  • Even though there have been monumental changes in the board such as resignation of Mr.Goel, the battle with the shareholders is still far from the finale.

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Daily Brief China: Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings, Agile Property Holdings, 21Vianet Group, Seazen (Formerly Future Land), CIFI Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Yue Yuen (551 HK): Putting Their Best Feet Forward
  • Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (551.HK) – Challenging Prospects Overshadow Undervaluation
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 09 December 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Chinese Property Weekly – 09 December 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Quick Idea’s
  • Seazen Group Placement – Won’t Do Much to Debt Profile, However Momentum Has Been Very Strong
  • Weekly Wrap – 09 Dec 2022
  • Weekly Wrap – 09 Dec 2022

Yue Yuen (551 HK): Putting Their Best Feet Forward

By David Blennerhassett

  • Despite a softening global demand backdrop, Yue Yuen Industrial (551 HK), a global leader in the manufacture of athletic/outdoor and casual footwear, recently recorded its best 9M results since 2017.
  • Yue Yuen’s shares have only just recovered from a 20-year low.
  • From both a historical perspective and relative to peers, Yue Yuen is undemanding here. 

Yue Yuen Industrial Holdings (551.HK) – Challenging Prospects Overshadow Undervaluation

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Yue Yuen is essentially a large traditional manufacturing company, which once benefitted from China’s cheap labor and has brilliant history. But challenges seem inevitable as labor costs gradually increase.
  • Despite 22Q1-Q3 solid performance, in the environment of high inventory of brand customers and downward pressure on global economy, the order visibility of Yue Yuen in 22Q4/23Q1 could be low.
  • Either domestic demand or external demand, the overall situation may not be optimistic. Yue Yuen’s valuation is basically lower than its peers. However, we still recommend investors to remain vigilant.

Chinese Property Weekly – 09 December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Chinese Property Weekly – 09 December 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.


Quick Idea’s

By Turtles all the way down

  • 111, inc (YI) has run up to $3.25. For a spread of only about 11%.
  • Which is not all that attractive since there is no definitive agreement signed. So I am closing it with a quick 13% gain here.
  • These Chinese merger situations sometimes randomly spike up, and I think it is wise to trade around them when upside isn’t as juicy anymore.

Seazen Group Placement – Won’t Do Much to Debt Profile, However Momentum Has Been Very Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • Seazen (Formerly Future Land) (1030 HK) is looking to raise US$175m from its top-up placement.
  • The deal is a relatively small one at just 9.5 days of three month ADV and 4.9% of current mcap.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

Weekly Wrap – 09 Dec 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. China SCE
  2. Hopson Development
  3. Sino-Ocean Group
  4. Greentown China
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


Weekly Wrap – 09 Dec 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. China SCE
  2. Hopson Development
  3. Sino-Ocean Group
  4. Greentown China
  5. China Jinmao Holdings

and more…


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Daily Brief Japan: Softbank Group, NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone), Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Can Son-San Take Over Softbank Group Through Buybacks?
  • 2023 High Conviction: NTT (Buy) – Surging DoCoMo Underappreciated as Markets Step Back from Value
  • Softbank Group – China Rebound Has Helped After End-Of-Buyback Hangover
  • Going Private Is an Option for Both the Companies and Investors

Can Son-San Take Over Softbank Group Through Buybacks?

By Travis Lundy

  • On Thursday 8 December, an article showed up in Bloomberg suggesting Son-san had “increased his stake” as the company bought back shares, giving him more rights, “edging towards a buyout.”
  • That is a stretch. He went from below one-third to above one-third, giving him an explicit veto on shareholder super-majority resolutions, but it’s minor. He now has 34.2%.
  • The suggestion: if he got two-thirds, he could squeeze out minorities without a Tender Offer. Technically true, but not easy. I dig deeper and propose how it could be done.

2023 High Conviction: NTT (Buy) – Surging DoCoMo Underappreciated as Markets Step Back from Value

By Kirk Boodry

  • We have tweaked our numbers after Q2 results and catching up with the company.  In particular, we come away with more confidence in wireless / fintech growth
  • NTT looks cheap at 11x FY22e EPS v 12x for KDDI even as relative growth is expected to be better with ~9% EPS growth
  • Shares have outperformed TOPIX (+18% YTD v -3%) and this should continue in 2023 as solid financial performance and an attractive shareholder returns story provide support

Softbank Group – China Rebound Has Helped After End-Of-Buyback Hangover

By Kirk Boodry

  • Alibaba is up 20% QTD and the public Vision Fund portfolio is on track for its first positive quarter in almost two years thanks to China upside, mostly for Didi
  • That has kept the share price elevated even as the discount to fair value has expanded since buybacks ended at Q2 results
  • At 34% now, there is room for the discount to expand further as the range before the buyback surge was generally closer to 40%

Going Private Is an Option for Both the Companies and Investors

By Aki Matsumoto

  • While it’s natural for a rational investor to disagree with a company that cannot generate a return commensurate with the risk, the existence of cross-shareholdings in Japanese companies complicates matters.
  • The benefit of listing is raising capital on favorable terms by trading shares at a value greater than shareholders’ equity, but there are not many Japanese companies trading at premium.
  • Going private is one option for companies that are unable to find growth investment opportunities and accumulate cash on their balance sheets. In this regard, Japanese equities are of interest.

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Daily Brief Private Markets: Singapore-Based Glints Lays off 18% of Employees and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • Singapore-Based Glints Lays off 18% of Employees
  • What Is ChatGPT and What Does It Bring to the Table?
  • Osome Rakes in US$25M Series B to Grow Its Accounting Solutions Beyond SG
  • Malaysian Earned Wage Access Startup Paywatch Bags US$9M for Philippines, HK Expansion

Singapore-Based Glints Lays off 18% of Employees

By Tech in Asia

  • Glints, a Singapore-based careers platform, is laying off employees “based on market conditions and business priorities,” the firm’s co-founder Oswald Yeo said in his address to staff.

  • The development comes after the startup raised US$50 million in a series D funding round in August.
  • In the same month, the firm claimed that its annual revenue and gross profits grew 2.5x over the past 12 months.

What Is ChatGPT and What Does It Bring to the Table?

By Tech in Asia

  • OpenAI, a US-based AI firm set up by Elon Musk and Sam Altman, released the preview version of a chatbot model called ChatGPT (Chat Generative Pre-Training).
  • Immediately, the model took the internet world by storm, as the chatbot produced accurate, human-like answers (most of the time) to questions and commands.

  • In a nutshell, the model was trained using a form of supervised fine-tuning called reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF).

Osome Rakes in US$25M Series B to Grow Its Accounting Solutions Beyond SG

By e27

  • Osome helps SMEs set up through a simple platform with easy-to-use software and an expert accountant to take care of financial admin

  • Singapore-based Osome, which has developed an accounting and corporate compliance app for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), has raked in US$25 million in a Series B round
  • The firm plans to expand its Asia operations, primarily in Singapore and Hong Kong

Malaysian Earned Wage Access Startup Paywatch Bags US$9M for Philippines, HK Expansion

By e27

  • Paywatch claims its solution has reached a 50 per cent engagement rate among its Malaysian users this year.

  • Paywatch, an earned wage access (EWA) service provider operating in South Korea and Malaysia, announced a US$9 million pre-Series A financing
  • Paywatch will utilise the money to grow its product offerings, strengthen its presence in existing markets, and accelerate expansion into new markets

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China SCE and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, CIFI Holdings, Greentown China, Hopson Development, Sino-Ocean Service

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, CIFI Holdings, Greentown China, Hopson Development, Sino-Ocean Service

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: I-Tail Corporation IPO Trading – Should Be Able to Provide Some Holiday Cheer and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • I-Tail Corporation IPO Trading – Should Be Able to Provide Some Holiday Cheer
  • I-Tail Corporation IPO: Trading Debut
  • Tian Tu Capital Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Hampered by Weakened Market Sentiment. Guiding Weak FY22
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Trading Debut
  • Growatt IPO: PHIP Update
  • VinFast Auto IPO: The Bull Case
  • VinFast Auto Pre-IPO – The Negatives – … But Starting Low
  • PagerDuty Inc: Major Drivers
  • Pre-IPO Medbanks Network Technology – PHIP Updates: The Business Model Has yet to Be Verified
  • Box Inc: Major Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, Key Risks (12/22)

I-Tail Corporation IPO Trading – Should Be Able to Provide Some Holiday Cheer

By Sumeet Singh

  • I-Tail, an OEM in the wet pet food category, raised around US$600m in its Thailand IPO. It is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group (TU TB).
  • As per ITC, it was the number two pet food company in Asia and in the top ten pet food companies globally. ITC expertise lies in fish-based wet pet food.
  • In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuation. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics

I-Tail Corporation IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


Tian Tu Capital Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Hampered by Weakened Market Sentiment. Guiding Weak FY22

By Clarence Chu

  • Tian Tu Capital (1390587D CH) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Tiantu Capital (TTC) is a private equity/venture capital investor and fund manager with a focus on Chinese consumer brands and companies.
  • The fund manages capital from investors including institutional investors, multinational corporations, financial institutions, and high net-worth individuals. It also directly invests through its own capital as well.

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


Growatt IPO: PHIP Update

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Growatt is a distributed energy solution provider with the #1 market share for PV inverters and energy storage inverters, allowing them strong potential to benefit from a growing market.
  • In November 2022, the company received approval from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the IPO has a placeholder value of US$1bn, making it HKEX’s fourth largest IPO of 2022.
  • In this follow-up insight, we have highlighted and discussed some of the key new data points from the company’s latest Post Hearing Information Pack (PHIP).

VinFast Auto IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • VinFast (1905332D VN), a Vietnamese EV (electric vehicle) manufacturer and a majority-owned affiliate of Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN), has filed for a US$1.0 billion IPO to list on Nasdaq.
  • VinFast is in the middle of a transition from an ICE to a pure-play EV manufacturer. VF 8, its second EV SUV, will be delivered in the US in 4Q22. 
  • The key elements of the bull case rest on a credible EV roadmap, speed-to-market, solid consumer interest and models with attractive range-to-price ratios and total cost of ownership.

VinFast Auto Pre-IPO – The Negatives – … But Starting Low

By Sumeet Singh

  • VinFast (1905332D VN)  is looking to raise up to US$1bn in its upcoming US IPO.
  • VinFast is a full-scale mobility platform focused primarily on designing and manufacturing premium EVs, electric scooters and electric buses.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

PagerDuty Inc: Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PagerDuty performed well in the last quarter despite the relatively uncertain environment and delivered an all-around beat.
  • The company saw a good performance in financial services, tech retail, and other verticals.
  • Total paid and free customers on its platform grew, and consumers continued to adopt more products and services and expand users.

Pre-IPO Medbanks Network Technology – PHIP Updates: The Business Model Has yet to Be Verified

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Specialty Pharmacy Business is the main revenue contributor,but it’s hard for Medbanks to achieve breakeven or turn loss into profits by relying on this business due to its low margin.
  • Physician Research Assistance and Health Insurance Services have higher margin, but they have to face different challenges based on our analysis. They are hard to turn things around.
  • In fact, Medbanks does not control the core resources or establish high barriers in front of competition. Whether its ecological story would finally work still needs time to verify. 

Box Inc: Major Drivers, Financial Forecasts, DCF & Comparables Valuation, Key Risks (12/22)

By Baptista Research

  • Box had a mixed third quarter, with revenue below Wall Street expectations but stronger than expected earnings.
  • Their leading security and data governance tools, Box Governance and Box Shield have received many significant upgrades.
  • The Box Shield ethical wall feature was also made public during the quarter.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Good Morning Japan |Equities Continue to Hold; China Stocks on Fire; Japan Major SQ and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Good Morning Japan |Equities Continue to Hold; China Stocks on Fire; Japan Major SQ
  • China’s EV-Makers Race to Secure Orders Before Subsidies End
  • Unrestrained Investment Creates Looming Glut for China’s Solar Supply Chain, Analysts Say
  • Logistics Begins Slow Recovery as China Eases Covid Controls

Good Morning Japan |Equities Continue to Hold; China Stocks on Fire; Japan Major SQ

By Mark Chadwick

  • Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the best macro, stock and thematic overnight news that impacts your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW TO KEEP ABREAST.
  • OVERSEAS: SPX continue to hold as Tech leads the rebound; FTC moves to block MSFT acquistion of Activision (good); China stocks continue to be bid; Broadcom strong;  PPI on Friday
  • JAPAN: Major SQ  futures point to +0.4% open on the NKY;  Govt continues to push forward with Nuclear rebirth(postive MHI);  Kishida outlines how to pay for massive defense spending rise

China’s EV-Makers Race to Secure Orders Before Subsidies End

By Caixin Global

  • Chinese electric-vehicle (EV) makers are pulling out all the stops to lure buyers into placing orders by the end of 2022, before subsidies for new-energy vehicle (NEV) purchases are completely phased out
  • Carmakers are adopting these sales strategies because they want to “get in ahead of rivals” to secure as many orders as possible before 2023 amid growing speculation that China’s passenger NEV market will likely enter a phase of readjustment
  • Government subsidies were introduced in 2010 to spur the growth of the industry — alongside other support policies such as tax breaks for buyers

Unrestrained Investment Creates Looming Glut for China’s Solar Supply Chain, Analysts Say

By Caixin Global

  • China, by far the world’s largest producer of solar panels and components, will likely face a glut of the photovoltaic (PV) materials next year
  • Polysilicon, the main raw material used in solar PV manufacturing, will be in “severe oversupply” in 2023 as reckless investments by industry newcomers are set to double annual production capacity
  • Silicon wafers, which are made of polysilicon and used to manufacture solar cells, could also face a production surplus

Logistics Begins Slow Recovery as China Eases Covid Controls

By Caixin Global

  • Logistics services in China are recovering at a sluggish pace, despite the government relaxing its “zero-Covid” policy.
  • Some truck freight firms have resumed operations at terminals and distribution centers in major cities after local governments eased large-scale Covid lockdowns.
  • But logistics service providers are operating far below capacity as many delivery terminals and distribution centers face lingering, though smaller, restrictions amid a spike in Covid cases.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: JAFCO (8595) Cancels Tender Offer – I Offer a Modest Proposal For Good Governance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • JAFCO (8595) Cancels Tender Offer – I Offer a Modest Proposal For Good Governance
  • China Rebalances at the Close Today- BIG Flows
  • Nitro Software (NTO AU): Potentia Raises to A$2.00 as the Battle Heats Up
  • Infosys (INFY)’s US$1.1bn Buyback
  • KODEX Battery Rebalancing Results Out: From Today to Next Tuesday
  • Targetable Names on KOSPI for Dividend Arbitrage: DPS Estimates & Current Basis
  • EQD | KOSPI2 Index: Short-Term Trading Opportunity Using Derivatives
  • Nitro Software: Potentia Matches KKR’s $2.00/Offer

JAFCO (8595) Cancels Tender Offer – I Offer a Modest Proposal For Good Governance

By Travis Lundy

  • Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP) announced the reference period VWAP for the Tender Offer Buyback was ¥2,362.4136 vs target ¥2,525. Murakami-san refused to play, so the Tender Offer is cancelled.
  • This is good news and bad news. The announcement wording doesn’t make JAFCO look good, but they will continue discussions with City Index Eleventh. But there is potential.
  • I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection (Jonathan Swift, 1729)

China Rebalances at the Close Today- BIG Flows

By Brian Freitas


Nitro Software (NTO AU): Potentia Raises to A$2.00 as the Battle Heats Up

By Arun George

  • Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) has received a revised Potentia off-market takeover offer at A$2.00 per share, an 11.1% premium to its previous offer and in line with Alludo’s offer.
  • By bumping its offer, adding a scrip alternative and signalling a potentially higher price on due diligence access, Potentia has ramped up the pressure on the Board.
  • Potentia/Alludo offer remains at the low end of the IE’s valuation range. Alludo would have anticipated this move and likely will have factored in the need to raise its offer.

Infosys (INFY)’s US$1.1bn Buyback

By Travis Lundy


KODEX Battery Rebalancing Results Out: From Today to Next Tuesday

By Sanghyun Park

  • As expected, Sungeel Hitech (365340) made it to the index. And C&I System (222080) and Wonik PNE (217820) were added, whereas Ecopro (086520) and Dongwha Enterprise (025900) were deleted.
  • Among the existing constituents, Samsung SDI (006400), Ecopro BM (247540), SK Innovation (096770), L&F (066970), and SKC (011790) are expected to have a relatively significant impact.
  • Looking at the last rebalancing, the impact/price correlation was most significant on Day 1. So, we should consider aiming for LONG/SHORT today for those with a high relative impact.

Targetable Names on KOSPI for Dividend Arbitrage: DPS Estimates & Current Basis

By Sanghyun Park

  • Targetable names on KOSPI for dividend arbitrage: SK Telecom (017670), Woori Financial (316140), SK Hynix (000660), KB Financial (105560), Korea Zinc (010130), and HMM (011200) 
  • Samsung Electronics (005930)‘ basis does not reflect special dividends, even though speculations have not disappeared entirely.
  • As the current basis hasn’t widened to an entirely sufficient level, we need to target arb trade openings focusing on the above stocks a bit more aggressively.

EQD | KOSPI2 Index: Short-Term Trading Opportunity Using Derivatives

By Simon Harris

  • KOSPI2 Index failed to break above the 200dma and has retreated
  • The index has now fallen back towards the 50dma and we see an short-term opportunity to play the upside
  • Use weekly options to play a short-term bounce and get the best risk-reward

Nitro Software: Potentia Matches KKR’s $2.00/Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Potentia Capital has bumped its Offer for Nitro Software Ltd (NTO AU) to A$2.00/share, matching KKR’s earlier Offer.
  • Potential’s proposal – which also boasts a scrip alternative for those investors wishing to remain invested – is open for tendering, and has no minimum acceptance threshold. 
  • Nitro’s board has yet to provide a view on Potentia’s revised terms.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Food & Life: Can’t Avoid Headlines For Too Long & Starting to Fall Back Towards The Rest of The Pack and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Food & Life: Can’t Avoid Headlines For Too Long & Starting to Fall Back Towards The Rest of The Pack
  • Buy Shenzhou on Margin Recovery
  • Asia Gaming: Wynn Macau Poised to Move up as Balance Sheet Is Bolstered and Headwinds Begin to Ease
  • Overearning Short Candidates: Builders FirstSource, IBM, Forward Air Co, Deere & Co.
  • BOC HK – Negative Lending Growth, As Credit Costs Ratchet Higher?
  • Credicorp (BAP US); Opportunity to Come from the Peruvian Political Crisis
  • Elastic NV: Improvements To The Elastic Search Platform & Other Drivers
  • Agnico Eagle Mines: The Real Money Printing Press
  • Okta Inc: Improvements In The Okta Workforce Identity Cloud & Other Developments
  • Snowflake Inc: Investment In OpenAP & Other Drivers

Food & Life: Can’t Avoid Headlines For Too Long & Starting to Fall Back Towards The Rest of The Pack

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Food & Life (3563 JP), best known for its affordable conveyor belt Sushi restaurant chain Sushiro, is looking to break out after dropping more than 60% in the last year.
  • This breakout coincides with Sushiro’s overseas growth as the segment revenue and OP grew 27% and 108% QoQ respectively in the previous quarter.
  • Given its tendency hit the headlines, mostly for the wrong reasons, risks rewards aren’t that great. Multiples have downside potential with Sushiro’s profitability falling towards peers.

Buy Shenzhou on Margin Recovery

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • Gross margin is under pressure throughout 2022 but will recover in 2023
  • Brands have been focusing on destocking and the inventory levels trend down
  • Capacity is expected to grow by 10% to low teens y/y in 2023

Asia Gaming: Wynn Macau Poised to Move up as Balance Sheet Is Bolstered and Headwinds Begin to Ease

By Howard J Klein

  • Parent Wynn Resorts Ltd’s. REIT deal for its Boston property,  proceeds of US$1.7b rings its balance sheet cash to US$4.4b.
  • 3Q22 results earnings miss entirely due to China zero covid policy that could begin to ease earlier than anticipated by the market.
  • At a P/E (ttm) of 8.44 the stock is yet to reflect a more positive tone  of its strengthened balance sheet, 6.1% stake in the parent bought by an activist.

Overearning Short Candidates: Builders FirstSource, IBM, Forward Air Co, Deere & Co.

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

  • This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. 
  • The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. 
  • These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings.

BOC HK – Negative Lending Growth, As Credit Costs Ratchet Higher?

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Credit costs at present are only 20bps of loans, these can move to 100bps or higher
  • Population data even before 2H22 shows contraction, with negative implications
  • Property prices are turning down even faster, which is banks’ loan collateral

Credicorp (BAP US); Opportunity to Come from the Peruvian Political Crisis

By Victor Galliano

  • The ousting of Peruvian President Pedro Castillo follows his failed attempt to dissolve Congress; Vice-President Dina Boularte was sworn in yesterday as the new first female Peruvian President
  • Political instability is not uncommon in Peru, but an end to Castillo’s chaotic, market-unfriendly administration with its high turnover in ministerial posts should improve investor sentiment and encourage increased FDI
  • When we screen Peruvian bell-weather Credicorp against its LatAm peers, we conclude that, although it is not deep value, it is attractive versus its own history and selected peers

Elastic NV: Improvements To The Elastic Search Platform & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Elastic NV managed to deliver an all-around beat in the last result as it continues making progress across innovation.
  • The company has recently announced innovations over the Elastic Search platform, the prominent data analytics platform for search-powered solutions for transforming the way organizations observe, search, and protect their data.
  • This quarter, Elastic expanded business with RDD, the leading supply chain, print, packaging, and marketing solutions provider.

Agnico Eagle Mines: The Real Money Printing Press

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Agnico Eagle Mines has already delivered outstanding results in a period of less than 6 months.
  • The risk profile of Agnico remains low with an exceptionally high dividend yield.
  • The company appears very attractive in spite of the inflationary headwinds, according to the company’s chief executive.

Okta Inc: Improvements In The Okta Workforce Identity Cloud & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Okta is delivered a decent set of third-quarter results beating revenue expectations of Wall Street and delivering narrower than expected losses.
  • Since the beginning of the year, Okta’s business with public sector businesses has grown by more than 65% thanks to outstanding successes in the worker and customer identity clouds.
  • The management also unveiled improvements to the Okta Workforce Identity Cloud, enhancing its one control plane for managing identities across all business users and resources.

Snowflake Inc: Investment In OpenAP & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Snowflake delivered yet another all-around beat as the company continues to achieve robust growth along with improved unit economics, operational profit, and free cash flow.
  • Despite the weakening global macro context, Snowflake’s data strategy for contemporary businesses and institutions has helped it survive.
  • Besides, the Snowflake Data Cloud continues to be well-received by major businesses and institutions.

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