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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Australia: Warrego Energy, Monadelphous, Bigtincan Holdings Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Warrego (WGO AU)’s Rinehart V Stokes Takeover Tussle in Full Swing
  • S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2022): Couple of Changes to Close Out the Year
  • Bigtincan (BTH AU)’s Lightweight A$0.80 Offer from SQN

Warrego (WGO AU)’s Rinehart V Stokes Takeover Tussle in Full Swing

By Arun George

  • Beach Energy (BPT AU)’s revised offer of A$0.25 per share was quickly gazumped by Hancock’s revised off-market proposal of A$0.28 for Warrego Energy (WGO AU). All other terms remain unchanged.
  • Speculation that Strike Energy (STX AU) would also be a takeover target has resulted in its all-scrip offer rising to A$0.248 per share (at last close).
  • Expect another round of the takeover battle as the bidders are well capitalised and the strategic importance of Perth Basin as Australia’s premier onshore basin.

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2022): Couple of Changes to Close Out the Year

By Brian Freitas


Bigtincan (BTH AU)’s Lightweight A$0.80 Offer from SQN

By Arun George

  • Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU) disclosed a non-binding indicative offer of A$0.80 per share offer from SQN, a skinny 17.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The offer is unattractive on several fronts and is the latest beaten-down ASX tech stock to be subject to a PE bid. Expect the Board to reject the offer.
  • Bigtincan also revealed other non-binding expressions of interest. This offer could flush out other potential bidders. At the last close, the gross spread is 6.0%.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Chip Eng Seng Corp, Keppel Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Chip Eng Seng (CHIP SP)’s Revised S$0.75 VGO from the Tangs
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Keppel/Sembcorp, Carbon Revolution, Toyo Construction, Fuji Oil, Toshiba
  • Offer Price for Chip Eng Seng Bumped And Declared Final

Chip Eng Seng (CHIP SP)’s Revised S$0.75 VGO from the Tangs

By Arun George

  • Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP) disclosed a revised conditional VGO from the Tangs at S$0.75, a 4.2% premium to the previous offer of S$0.72. The offer is final.
  • The offeror (47.27% of outstanding shares) and immediate family represent 50.49% of outstanding shares or 48.63% of diluted shares, which is just shy of the 50%+ minimum acceptance condition. 
  • The bump was to increase the chances of privatisation rather than hitting the 50%+ minimum acceptance condition. At the last close, the gross spread is 1.4%. 

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keppel/Sembcorp, Carbon Revolution, Toyo Construction, Fuji Oil, Toshiba

By David Blennerhassett

  • Keppel Corp (KEP SP) shareholders vote next week. Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shareholders are awaiting their Circular. Expect both sets of shareholders will approve. The optics and performance look good.
  • Carbon Revolution Ltd (CBR AU)  SPAC Offer is a high-cost red-herring. Management who support this takeover should be fired.
  • Nintendo Founder Family Office “YFO” bought 25+% of Toyo Construction (1890 JP), then offered to buy it out. Negotiations are ongoing. We still don’t really know what is going on. 

Offer Price for Chip Eng Seng Bumped And Declared Final

By David Blennerhassett

  • In Chip Eng Seng: Low-Balled MBO At $0.72/Share, I thought there was scope for a bump. But then the Tang family bought a 9.02% stake on market.
  • The Tangs have now bumped the Offer Price for Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP) to S$0.75/share, up from S$0.72/share, and declared the terms final.
  • The Offer remains conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle. With 47.27% in the bag, this is done.

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Daily Brief South Korea: KT Corp, Celltrion Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • KOSPI 200 Up/Down Weights: Official Results & Passive Impacts on T-1 Effective
  • TIGER Top 10 Rebalancing: Four Names to Trade on T-1 Effective

KOSPI 200 Up/Down Weights: Official Results & Passive Impacts on T-1 Effective

By Sanghyun Park


TIGER Top 10 Rebalancing: Four Names to Trade on T-1 Effective

By Sanghyun Park

  • Kakao managed to stay out of the relegation zone. Instead, Kia was pushed to the borderline. But POSCO failed to up its float rate, so Kia stayed in.
  • Besides that, LG Energy Solution and Celltrion made it to the index, replacing KB Financial and Shinhan Financial.
  • These passive flows appears to be of sufficient magnitude to cause a substantial price impact on T-1 Effectiveness. But it should also be approached with a fairly short window.

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Daily Brief Japan: Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co, Toyo Construction and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Set to Benefit from Roaring OTC Business and New Rx Drug Launch
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Bigtincan, Carbon Revolution, Warrego, Toyo, Hitachi T’sport

Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical (4530 JP): Set to Benefit from Roaring OTC Business and New Rx Drug Launch

By Tina Banerjee

  • Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical Co (4530 JP) reported revenue growth of 8% y/y and 26% q/q to ¥33B in Q2FY23, mainly driven by a 14% y/y 47% q/q increase in OTC business.
  • This year, the company received FDA approval for Xelstrym transdermal system for ADHD. Xelstrym is the first-and-only FDA-approved transdermal amphetamine patch.  
  • With the resumption of sporting/outdoor events in Japan, Salonpas is expected to continue its growth trajectory. For FY23, Hisamitsu is targeting Salonpas revenue of ¥32.5 billion (+4.5% y/y).

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Bigtincan, Carbon Revolution, Warrego, Toyo, Hitachi T’sport

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Alibaba (ADR), KT Corp, Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, Tencent, Bigtincan Holdings Ltd, Palo Alto Networks, Fleetcor Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (4th Dec 2022) – Skymark, Daiei, Sunshine, Lygend, Weilong, NRI, Zomato, Goto, Bobcat
  • KOSPI 200 Up/Down Weights: Official Results & Passive Impacts on T-1 Effective
  • EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades
  • EQD | Tencent (700 HK): We Identify Three Derivative Trades into Year-End
  • Bigtincan (BTH AU)’s Lightweight A$0.80 Offer from SQN
  • Palo Alto Networks: Acquisition of Cider Security & Other Drivers
  • FLEETCOR Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

ECM Weekly (4th Dec 2022) – Skymark, Daiei, Sunshine, Lygend, Weilong, NRI, Zomato, Goto, Bobcat

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
  • On the IPO front, the two Japanese IPO set the ball rolling for the year end rush, with a few more lined up in Hong Kong along with Sunshine.
  • There were a few largish selldowns in Japan and India and given Hong Kong’s recent performace, it will see some deals soon as well.

KOSPI 200 Up/Down Weights: Official Results & Passive Impacts on T-1 Effective

By Sanghyun Park


EQD | Volatility Update: Weekly Review of Vol Changes and Best Trades

By Simon Harris

  • Weekly summary of vol changes and moves across Global Markets
  • Analysing ATM volatility and skew changes over the last 5 days
  • We suggest a few trades to take advantage of the implied vol surfaces

EQD | Tencent (700 HK): We Identify Three Derivative Trades into Year-End

By Simon Harris

  • Stock has recovered from an October low but may be running out of steam 
  • Realised vol has been high and implied vols have not fallen as much as other equity assets
  • We suggest three trade ideas into year-end to take advantage of the vol surface and spot level

Bigtincan (BTH AU)’s Lightweight A$0.80 Offer from SQN

By Arun George

  • Bigtincan Holdings Ltd (BTH AU) disclosed a non-binding indicative offer of A$0.80 per share offer from SQN, a skinny 17.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The offer is unattractive on several fronts and is the latest beaten-down ASX tech stock to be subject to a PE bid. Expect the Board to reject the offer.
  • Bigtincan also revealed other non-binding expressions of interest. This offer could flush out other potential bidders. At the last close, the gross spread is 6.0%.

Palo Alto Networks: Acquisition of Cider Security & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Palo Alto had a strong first quarter and managed to surpass Wall Street expectations in terms of top-line growth as well as profitability.
  • As the macroeconomic situation shifts, the company is ramping up its efforts to create incremental operating leverage in its business.
  • Another interesting fact is that Palo Alto has consistently outperformed other tech and cybersecurity stocks even in market lows.

FLEETCOR Technologies Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • FLEETCOR Technologies is a well-known digital payment solutions provider to businesses across the world.
  • The company’s financial results have been reasonably good in recent times and have exceeded management expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.
  • Corporate payments have been increasing in double-digits as per the company’s recent results due to strong new sales, domestically and abroad.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Far Eastern New Century, Chip Eng Seng Corp, Monadelphous, Keppel Corp, Toyo Construction and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, CSI300/500, SSE50/180/380, ChiNext, SZSE1000, CH50, EPRA
  • Chip Eng Seng (CHIP SP)’s Revised S$0.75 VGO from the Tangs
  • S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2022): Couple of Changes to Close Out the Year
  • FTSE TWSE 50 & 100 Dec 22 Rebal: Greatek Deletion Confirmed; One Surprise Change
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Keppel/Sembcorp, Carbon Revolution, Toyo Construction, Fuji Oil, Toshiba
  • Offer Price for Chip Eng Seng Bumped And Declared Final
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Bigtincan, Carbon Revolution, Warrego, Toyo, Hitachi T’sport

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, CSI300/500, SSE50/180/380, ChiNext, SZSE1000, CH50, EPRA

By Brian Freitas


Chip Eng Seng (CHIP SP)’s Revised S$0.75 VGO from the Tangs

By Arun George

  • Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP) disclosed a revised conditional VGO from the Tangs at S$0.75, a 4.2% premium to the previous offer of S$0.72. The offer is final.
  • The offeror (47.27% of outstanding shares) and immediate family represent 50.49% of outstanding shares or 48.63% of diluted shares, which is just shy of the 50%+ minimum acceptance condition. 
  • The bump was to increase the chances of privatisation rather than hitting the 50%+ minimum acceptance condition. At the last close, the gross spread is 1.4%. 

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2022): Couple of Changes to Close Out the Year

By Brian Freitas


FTSE TWSE 50 & 100 Dec 22 Rebal: Greatek Deletion Confirmed; One Surprise Change

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 and Taiwan Mid-Cap 100 indices for the December 2022 Rebalance were announced after the close on Friday. 
  • There will be one change for the Taiwan 50 Index and three changes for the Taiwan Mid-Cap 100 Index.
  • In this insight, we take a closer look at the possible explanations for this surprise and our index flow expectations for this Rebalance event.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keppel/Sembcorp, Carbon Revolution, Toyo Construction, Fuji Oil, Toshiba

By David Blennerhassett

  • Keppel Corp (KEP SP) shareholders vote next week. Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shareholders are awaiting their Circular. Expect both sets of shareholders will approve. The optics and performance look good.
  • Carbon Revolution Ltd (CBR AU)  SPAC Offer is a high-cost red-herring. Management who support this takeover should be fired.
  • Nintendo Founder Family Office “YFO” bought 25+% of Toyo Construction (1890 JP), then offered to buy it out. Negotiations are ongoing. We still don’t really know what is going on. 

Offer Price for Chip Eng Seng Bumped And Declared Final

By David Blennerhassett

  • In Chip Eng Seng: Low-Balled MBO At $0.72/Share, I thought there was scope for a bump. But then the Tang family bought a 9.02% stake on market.
  • The Tangs have now bumped the Offer Price for Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP) to S$0.75/share, up from S$0.72/share, and declared the terms final.
  • The Offer remains conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle. With 47.27% in the bag, this is done.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Bigtincan, Carbon Revolution, Warrego, Toyo, Hitachi T’sport

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: TA Chen Stainless Pipe, Warrego Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE TWSE Dividend+ Dec 22: Confirmed Index Changes and Revised Capping Flow Expectations
  • Warrego (WGO AU)’s Rinehart V Stokes Takeover Tussle in Full Swing

FTSE TWSE Dividend+ Dec 22: Confirmed Index Changes and Revised Capping Flow Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the FTSE TWSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index for the December 2022 index review were confirmed after market close on Friday 2nd December 2022. 
  • There will be 26 ADDs and 5 DELs which are mostly in line with Quiddity’s expectations.
  • In this insight, we take a look at our revised expectations for capping flows taking into account the confirmed index changes for the December 2022 review

Warrego (WGO AU)’s Rinehart V Stokes Takeover Tussle in Full Swing

By Arun George

  • Beach Energy (BPT AU)’s revised offer of A$0.25 per share was quickly gazumped by Hancock’s revised off-market proposal of A$0.28 for Warrego Energy (WGO AU). All other terms remain unchanged.
  • Speculation that Strike Energy (STX AU) would also be a takeover target has resulted in its all-scrip offer rising to A$0.248 per share (at last close).
  • Expect another round of the takeover battle as the bidders are well capitalised and the strategic importance of Perth Basin as Australia’s premier onshore basin.

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars

Daily Brief Financials: Bitcoin and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Web3 Mini Report 2022

Web3 Mini Report 2022

By Etherbridge

  • Last year Etherbridge published a Web3 mini report where we reviewed some of the most significant Web3 sectors and a few up-and-coming ones. 
  • The year has been challenging for all markets in general, and crypto has been no exception. Internal human errors and poorly designed token mechanics resulted in a crypto credit crisis, exacerbating the market crash further.
  • Nevertheless, the underlying technology across the blockchain stack has continued to evolve and improve, with some fundamental breakthroughs happening in scaling and other critical infrastructure. 

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Daily Brief Industrials: Far Eastern New Century, Chip Eng Seng Corp, Monadelphous, Keppel Corp, Toyo Construction and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, CSI300/500, SSE50/180/380, ChiNext, SZSE1000, CH50, EPRA
  • Chip Eng Seng (CHIP SP)’s Revised S$0.75 VGO from the Tangs
  • S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2022): Couple of Changes to Close Out the Year
  • FTSE TWSE 50 & 100 Dec 22 Rebal: Greatek Deletion Confirmed; One Surprise Change
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Keppel/Sembcorp, Carbon Revolution, Toyo Construction, Fuji Oil, Toshiba
  • Offer Price for Chip Eng Seng Bumped And Declared Final
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Bigtincan, Carbon Revolution, Warrego, Toyo, Hitachi T’sport

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, CSI300/500, SSE50/180/380, ChiNext, SZSE1000, CH50, EPRA

By Brian Freitas


Chip Eng Seng (CHIP SP)’s Revised S$0.75 VGO from the Tangs

By Arun George

  • Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP) disclosed a revised conditional VGO from the Tangs at S$0.75, a 4.2% premium to the previous offer of S$0.72. The offer is final.
  • The offeror (47.27% of outstanding shares) and immediate family represent 50.49% of outstanding shares or 48.63% of diluted shares, which is just shy of the 50%+ minimum acceptance condition. 
  • The bump was to increase the chances of privatisation rather than hitting the 50%+ minimum acceptance condition. At the last close, the gross spread is 1.4%. 

S&P/​​​ASX Index Rebalance (Dec 2022): Couple of Changes to Close Out the Year

By Brian Freitas


FTSE TWSE 50 & 100 Dec 22 Rebal: Greatek Deletion Confirmed; One Surprise Change

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The index changes for the FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 and Taiwan Mid-Cap 100 indices for the December 2022 Rebalance were announced after the close on Friday. 
  • There will be one change for the Taiwan 50 Index and three changes for the Taiwan Mid-Cap 100 Index.
  • In this insight, we take a closer look at the possible explanations for this surprise and our index flow expectations for this Rebalance event.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keppel/Sembcorp, Carbon Revolution, Toyo Construction, Fuji Oil, Toshiba

By David Blennerhassett

  • Keppel Corp (KEP SP) shareholders vote next week. Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) shareholders are awaiting their Circular. Expect both sets of shareholders will approve. The optics and performance look good.
  • Carbon Revolution Ltd (CBR AU)  SPAC Offer is a high-cost red-herring. Management who support this takeover should be fired.
  • Nintendo Founder Family Office “YFO” bought 25+% of Toyo Construction (1890 JP), then offered to buy it out. Negotiations are ongoing. We still don’t really know what is going on. 

Offer Price for Chip Eng Seng Bumped And Declared Final

By David Blennerhassett

  • In Chip Eng Seng: Low-Balled MBO At $0.72/Share, I thought there was scope for a bump. But then the Tang family bought a 9.02% stake on market.
  • The Tangs have now bumped the Offer Price for Chip Eng Seng Corp (CHIP SP) to S$0.75/share, up from S$0.72/share, and declared the terms final.
  • The Offer remains conditional on a 50% acceptance hurdle. With 47.27% in the bag, this is done.

(Mostly) Asia-Pac Weekly Risk Arb Wrap: Bigtincan, Carbon Revolution, Warrego, Toyo, Hitachi T’sport

By David Blennerhassett


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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
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Daily Brief Consumer: Perfect Medical Health, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A), Warner Music Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (2 Dec): Perfect Medical, Hong Kong Aerospace, ESR Group, Tian An
  • High Conviction Idea: Yili
  • Warner Music Group Corp.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings (2 Dec): Perfect Medical, Hong Kong Aerospace, ESR Group, Tian An

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights may flag those companies where shares have been pledged. Stocks mentioned include: Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), Hong Kong Aerospace Technology (1725 HK), and ESR Group (1821 HK).

High Conviction Idea: Yili

By Xin Yu, CFA

  • Yili is the largest dairy company in China with established entry barriers of brand and products.
  • Yili aims to join the world’s top three dairy enterprises by 2025 and strives to seize first place by 2030.
  • Management announced the plan of a revenue CAGR of ~10% y/y between 2021 and 2025 and margin improvement of 50bps each year.

Warner Music Group Corp.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

By Baptista Research

  • Warner Music Group is one of the top three giants in the music entertainment business across the world.
  • Despite the numerous macro challenges, the company achieved double-digit growth for the previous year and outperformed management expectations in several important metrics, such as total revenue, and operating cash flow.
  • The company’s music publishing business has shown a remarkable performance and the highlight remains its strong digital revenues which have witnessed a strong momentum given the growth in streaming.

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