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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: HYBE, Posco Chemical Co Ltd, BGF Co Ltd, Hana Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 58 Companies in Korea in December 2022
  • CSI KRX China-Korea: Rebalancing Results from KRX & Flow Trading Considerations
  • BGF & BGF Retail Pair Trade: Two Sons of BGF Chairman Hong Receive a Combined 20.9% Stake in BGF
  • South Korean Banks Screener; Hana Financial in the Positive Spotlight

End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods for 58 Companies in Korea in December 2022

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss end of the mandatory lock-up periods for 58 stocks in Korea in December 2022, among which 9 are in KOSPI and 49 are in KOSDAQ.
  • These 58 stocks on average could be subject to further selling pressures in December and could underperform relative to the market. 
  • Among these 58 stocks, the top 5 market cap stocks include HYBE, Kakao Games, WCP, Sillajen, and Duksan Neolux. 

CSI KRX China-Korea: Rebalancing Results from KRX & Flow Trading Considerations

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX unveiled the rebalancing results of the CSI KRX China-Korea indices for Korean constituents yesterday.
  • There is still insufficient evidence data to estimate specific passive impact. The previous rebalancing in June showed no clear correlation between constituent changes and price impact.
  • Although it may be risky to trade on this rebalancing, monitoring the correlation of their passive impact at this point, one year after the release, seems worthwhile.

BGF & BGF Retail Pair Trade: Two Sons of BGF Chairman Hong Receive a Combined 20.9% Stake in BGF

By Douglas Kim

  • It was announced today that Hong Jung-Guk (eldest son) received a 10.5% stake in BGF Co. (10 million shares) from his father Hong Suk-Jo. 
  • Hong Jung-Hyeok’s (second son) stake in BGF also increased from 0.03% to 10.5%.
  • We like a pair trade between BGF Co (go long) and BGF Retail (go short). The combination of price momentum and valuation favor BGF vs BGF Retail. 

South Korean Banks Screener; Hana Financial in the Positive Spotlight

By Victor Galliano

  • Six of the seven South Korean banks screen favourably on valuation versus returns metrics to September 2022; we add Hana Financial, to our buy rating on KB Financial
  • Hana has undemanding valuations, and improving pre-provision and post-provision returns,  it also has sound core capital ratio of close to 13%
  • We remain neutral on digital bank KakaoBank where we are deterred by high cost of risk metrics relative to its peers; we continue to seek positive catalysts on this name

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Daily Brief Indonesia: ABM Investama, Saratoga Investama Sedaya, Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia HY Trade Book – November 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ) – A World of Indonesian Themes
  • Indocement (INTP IJ) – Increasing Reach, Reducing Costs, and Improving Sustainability

Asia HY Trade Book – November 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia HY Trade Book for November 2022 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.


Saratoga Investama Sedaya (SRTG IJ) – A World of Indonesian Themes

By Angus Mackintosh


Indocement (INTP IJ) – Increasing Reach, Reducing Costs, and Improving Sustainability

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa (INTP IJ) has had a tough year with rising energy costs prompting price increases which impacted demand but 3Q2022 saw a strong rebound in sales growth.
  • Margins remained under pressure but increasing prices and the use of alternative fuels are helping to offset the impact of energy costs and more recently coal prices have been declining. 
  • Indocement continues to impress with its focus on sustainability, significantly beating on emissions and dust. Valuations look attractive versus history and with a potential recovery in earnings in 2023.

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Daily Brief Australia: Home Consortium Ltd, Warrego Energy, Origin Energy and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE EPRA Nareit Index Rebalance: One Deletion for Australia
  • Reinhart Edges Stokes In Tussle For Warrego Energy
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A Nov 2022 Roundup: Origin, Perpetual, Mori Trust, Uzabase, Chip Eng, Golden Energy
  • Warrego (WGO AU) In a Three-Way Tussle with Hancock’s A$0.23 Offer

FTSE EPRA Nareit Index Rebalance: One Deletion for Australia

By Brian Freitas

  • There are no adds for the FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Asia Index in December. The only deletion is Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU)
  • Passive trackers are estimated to sell 12x ADV on Home Consortium Ltd at the close 16 December. Short interest is nearly the same and there could be some covering.
  • Home Consortium Ltd (HMC AU) has underperformed its peers over the last 12 months and still trades more expensive to its peer group.

Reinhart Edges Stokes In Tussle For Warrego Energy

By David Blennerhassett

  • Gina Rinehart’s Hancock Prospecting has joined the bidding war for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) with a A$0.23/share, all cash, off-market Offer versus Beach Energy (BPT AU)‘s management-backed A$0.20/share Scheme Offer.
  • Hancock has already lodged the Bidder’s Statement. There is no minimum acceptance condition attached to  this offer.
  • Warrego currently recommends Beach’s Offer, subject to no superior proposal emerging. Beach has matching rights under the SID entered into on the 14 November. 

(Mostly) Asia M&A Nov 2022 Roundup: Origin, Perpetual, Mori Trust, Uzabase, Chip Eng, Golden Energy

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of November, 11 new deals (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$20bn.
  • The average premium for the new deals announced (or first discussed) in November was ~52%, and a year-to-date average of 41%.
  • This compares to the average premium for all deals in 2021 (165 deals), 2020 (158 deals), and 2019 (145 deals) of 33%, 31%, and 31.5% respectively.

Warrego (WGO AU) In a Three-Way Tussle with Hancock’s A$0.23 Offer

By Arun George

  • Hancock’s offer of A$0.23 is at a 15% premium to Beach Energy (BPT AU)’s A$0.20 offer and a 21.1% premium to Strike Energy (STX AU)’s scrip value on 29 November. 
  • The Hancock off-market offer for Warrego Energy (WGO AU) has no minimum acceptance condition or a material adverse change clause. The offer closes on 31 January 2023.
  • STX could be Hancock’s next logical target to facilitate Perth Basin consolidation. Between STX and BPT, BPT is more likely to return with an improved offer.  

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Daily Brief India: Balrampur Chini Mills, BLS International Services, ABM Investama, Lava International, Mahindra & Mahindra and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd- Forensic Analysis
  • BLS International Services Ltd: Forensic Analysis
  • Asia HY Trade Book – November 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Lava International IPO: Forensic Analysis
  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Wake up and Smell the Coffee

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Balrampur Chini Mills (BRCM IN) is one of the major integrated sugar manufacturing companies in India. Besides sugar, the company also engages in the business of ethanol and power generation.
  • Balrampur has managed to turnaround its free cash flows and earnings quality. Additionally, it has also stabilized working capital on the back of declining debt. 
  • While there are not many red flags, care must be given to inventory reconciliation with bank statement.

BLS International Services Ltd: Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • BLS International Services (BLSIN IN) is engaged in business of providing outsourcing and administrative task of Visa, Passport and Consular services to various Diplomatic Missions across the world.
  • BLS is troubled with several forensic discomforts. One should take into account the discomforts on the subsidiaries end and other linked entities like DSS Gulf Realtors.
  • Other forensic setbacks include alarming bad debts, misstatement of operating cash flows and several grey areas pertaining to disclosure norms followed by the company.

Asia HY Trade Book – November 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia HY Trade Book for November 2022 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.


Lava International IPO: Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Lava International (9263793Z IN)  is one of the leading end-to-end focused mobile handset and mobile handset Solutions Company based in India, with operations in a number of countries.
  • Major business risk arises from external environment, as Lava is one of the prominent leaders in feature phone segment, where the market is dying. 
  • Key forensic takeaways pertain to ECL provisioning and some absurd trend in line items. There are several discomforts on the governance end as well which must not be ignored.

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | Wake up and Smell the Coffee

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) ‘s production data provides more questions than answers.
  • The drop in production for Thar and XUV 700 in October in spite of the high order backlog is surprising. 
  • Considering the industry outlook and the existing sales and production for these two models, we believe this demand forecast may not materialise

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Daily Brief China: Yum China Holdings Inc, Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group, Lygend Resources & Technology, iShares China Large-Cap (FXI), ABM Investama, Alibaba Health Information Technology, Sunshine Insurance, Weilong Delicious Global, WuXi AppTec Co Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance: JD Health, Yum China IN; Longfor, Xpeng OUT
  • CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Four Changes in December
  • Lygend Resources & Technology IPO: Trading Debut
  • EQD | FXI (FXI US): – Could Chinese Equities Lead the Way Higher? Use Options for Delta-Revisited
  • Asia HY Trade Book – November 2022 – Lucror Analytics
  • Alibaba Health 1H: Cost Enhancements Support Margins but Sustainabaility Remains to Be Seen
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Lygend Resources & Technology IPO Trading – Tepid Subscription but Potential Upside Remains
  • Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comp and Valuation
  • WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) – Interpretation of the Recent Proposed Disposal of A Shares

FTSE China 50 Index Rebalance: JD Health, Yum China IN; Longfor, Xpeng OUT

By Brian Freitas


CES China Semiconductor Chips Index Rebalance: Four Changes in December

By Brian Freitas


Lygend Resources & Technology IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


EQD | FXI (FXI US): – Could Chinese Equities Lead the Way Higher? Use Options for Delta-Revisited

By Simon Harris

  • Chinese equities have been on a volatile path but are finally gaining some upside momentum
  • Dollar seems to have peaked and USDCNH is retreating with renewed optimism for the Chinese economy reopening. 
  • We revisit the trade and look at potential restructuring options

Asia HY Trade Book – November 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Asia HY Trade Book for November 2022 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia (ex-Japan) HY and crossover credits.


Alibaba Health 1H: Cost Enhancements Support Margins but Sustainabaility Remains to Be Seen

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Alibaba Health reported 1HFY03/2023 results on Monday. Revenue increased 22.9% YoY to RMB11.5bn and reported an adjusted net profit of RMB350m vs net loss of RMB283m reported in 1HFY03/2022.
  • Adjusted operating loss for the quarter decreased to RMB30m compared to RMB586m reported in the same quarter last year.
  • Ali Health’s fulfilment and S&M costs were the highest among peers and cutting down these costs has helped the company reduce its operating losses.

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Lygend Resources & Technology IPO Trading – Tepid Subscription but Potential Upside Remains

By Clarence Chu

  • Lygend Resources & Technology (2245 HK) raised US$470m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Lygend Resources & Technology (Lygend) is a nickel trading and production firm with a portfolio covering multiple areas across the nickel industry value chain.
  • In this note we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Weilong Delicious Global Pre-IPO – Updated Peer Comp and Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Weilong Delicious Global (WDG HK), a spicy snack food company in China, aims to raise around US$200m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • According to F&S, WDG ranked first among spicy snack food enterprises in China, with a market share of 6.2%, and in the seasoned flour product and spicy vegetable snacks categories.
  • In this note, we provide an update to our earlier peer comparison and valuations.

WuXi AppTec (603259.CH/2359.HK) – Interpretation of the Recent Proposed Disposal of A Shares

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • WuXi AppTec announced its proposed disposal of A Shares again. Investors’re worried about the signal behind – Performance growth has reached certain limit. There’s the possibility of a turning point.
  • Such proposed disposal (regardless of share price) could continue to weigh on the valuation performance of the whole CXO sector – There is still “bubble” in share price.
  • In fact, Li Ge (Founder of WuXi AppTec) knows CXO industry much better than anyone, when he decides to resolutely reduce his shareholding, it is very telling. 

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Daily Brief United States: Crowdstrike Holdings Inc, Credit Acceptance, Oracle Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • FY3Q23: If It’s All Macro, Do You Buy the Dip?
  • A Blessing in Disguise
  • Oracle: What To Expect As It Reports Q2 2023 Results

FY3Q23: If It’s All Macro, Do You Buy the Dip?

By Aaron Gabin

  • First ever ARR miss, and big initial guide down on FY2024 ARR growth: low 30s vs. 37% into the Q. Pretty shocking given Crowdstrike’s track record.
  • Macro Macro Macro – deal close times pushed out for SMBs and Enterprise customers reworking timing of deal starts to match opex budgets.
  • Stock is overly punished down 20% and trading at 9x forward sales for a platform consolidator with 30% FCF margins.

A Blessing in Disguise

By Steven Chen

  • We try to stay away from the fool’s errand of forecasting the economy;
  • But often, we notice that high-quality businesses actually benefit from harsh economic conditions in terms of (long-term) shareholder value;
  • We provided an example of a company that we own to illustrate how.

Oracle: What To Expect As It Reports Q2 2023 Results

By Vladimir Dimitrov, CFA

  • Oracle’s share price drop presented a good opportunity for long-term shareholders to average down.
  • Lagging analysts’ sentiment still presents an opportunity for future multiple repricing.
  • Headwinds for profitability will likely be an issue for investors with short-term investment horizons.

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Daily Brief Japan: Toyo Construction, Softbank Group, Appier Group, Nippon Shinyaku, Rakuten Inc, Sky Perfect Jsat and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyo Construction (1890) – Creeping Up On The Next “Tender Offer Start Date”….. Uh…. Maybe
  • Softbank Group (9984 JP) –The Masa Hurdles
  • Appier (4180) Nearing A TSE Prime (And TOPIX) Announcement?
  • Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Viltepso Has Strong Muscle Power; New Seizure Drug Launch in Japan
  • Rakuten (Neutral) – Follow up After Results: Mobile Issues Far from Over
  • Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy) – Q2 Follow up Plus Amazon Proof of Concept for Space Compass

Toyo Construction (1890) – Creeping Up On The Next “Tender Offer Start Date”….. Uh…. Maybe

By Travis Lundy

  • In March 2022, Toyo Construction (1890 JP) agreed to be taken over by equity affiliate stake owner INFRONEER Holdings (5076 JP) at what was a low price.
  • Nintendo Founder Family Office “YFO” objected, and bought 25+% of the company, then offered to buy it out 30% higher. Toyo Construction objected.
  • Four months later they finally signed an NDA and then started negotiating. Early in November the target date for a Tender Offer start by YFO was pushed to early December.

Softbank Group (9984 JP) –The Masa Hurdles

By Victor Galliano

  • Masayoshi’s debt with Softbank group is big, and due to the poor performance of SoftBank Vision Fund 2, Masa’s equity interest as a co-investor is now zero
  • Internal hedge fund Northstar, in which Masa has a 33.3% stake, is in liquidation leaving Masa’s share of his Northstar debt to SoftBank at USD1.2bn
  • SoftBank’s collateral on Masa debt includes the Vision Fund 2 equity, as well as SoftBank shares and other personal assets; we expect SoftBank’s NAV discount of c 25% to widen

Appier (4180) Nearing A TSE Prime (And TOPIX) Announcement?

By Travis Lundy

  • On 17 Feb 2022, Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA wrote about Appier Group (4180 JP) suggesting it was a TOPIX inclusion candidate in the not-distant future.
  • In mid-August 2022, he reiterated his opinion. Three days later, the company said they had applied for TSE Prime membership. We are coming up on the timing for an announcement.
  • It would mean buying, but the shareholder structure is interesting, and intentions are not easy to read. But if they announce imminently, the calendar makes the event even more interesting.

Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP): Viltepso Has Strong Muscle Power; New Seizure Drug Launch in Japan

By Tina Banerjee

  • Driven by continued strong performance of Viltepso and other partnered drugs, Nippon Shinyaku (4516 JP)  is expected to report accelerated revenue growth momentum.
  • Viltepso is expected to be the top selling drug of Nippon Shinyaku in FY23. For FY23, the drug is expected to report revenue of ¥14.7 billion (+90% y/y).
  • In November, Nippon Shinyaku launched Fintepla (fenfluramine) for the treatment of seizures in patients with Dravet syndrome (DS) as an add-on therapy to other anti-epileptic medicines in Japan.

Rakuten (Neutral) – Follow up After Results: Mobile Issues Far from Over

By Kirk Boodry

  • Rakuten’s successful junk bond sale means the Rakuten Bank IPO will happen next year and not in December as some had feared
  • More detail on mobile shows that network costs including D&A are 4x that of service revenue and slightly higher QoQ. Roaming alone is higher than service revenue 
  • And that means Rakuten can’t aggressively go after new subscribers unless it wants operating losses to accelerate. Bad for Rakuten but good news for incumbents KDDI, NTT and Softbank. 

Sky Perfect JSAT (Buy) – Q2 Follow up Plus Amazon Proof of Concept for Space Compass

By Kirk Boodry

  • We are publishing updated forecasts and commentary for Sky Perfect after meeting the company post-results 
  • Media results were predictably weak but the company hopes to make up ground in H2 as it ramps up marketing spend to support sport packages that launch in Spring
  • Amazon’s reveal that it has tested LEO-based satellite software highlights cloud platform interest in space ICT infrastructure like that being pursued by Sky Perfect JSAT and NTT

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Daily Brief ESG: Is TSE Being Too Strict with the Honor Students and Too Lenient with the Underdogs? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Is TSE Being Too Strict with the Honor Students and Too Lenient with the Underdogs?

Is TSE Being Too Strict with the Honor Students and Too Lenient with the Underdogs?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • There are 236 companies with a trading unit of more than 500,000 yen, while there are 967 companies with a trading unit of less than 50,000 yen on the TSE.
  • It’s fair to amend the law to abolish the share unit system, but changing the law takes time. It’s also unclear why “between 50,000 yen and 500,000 yen” is appropriate.
  • While TSE still allows 300 companies that don’t meet the listing criteria to be listed on prime market, TSE requires companies with higher stock prices to increase their administrative burden.

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Daily Brief ECM: Doosan Bobcat Placement – Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Have Been a Mixed Bag and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Doosan Bobcat Placement – Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Have Been a Mixed Bag
  • Sunshine Insurance Group Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Fastest in One Segment, Slowest in the Other
  • Fangzhou Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bear Case
  • Sunshine Insurance Group IPO – Needs to Correct by Only 50%

Doosan Bobcat Placement – Momentum Is Strong but past Deals Have Been a Mixed Bag

By Ethan Aw

  • Doosan Bobcat Inc (241560 KS) aims to sell a US$145m block. Its recent price momentum is strong but past deals have shown mixed results. 
  • The deal doesn’t appear to be well flagged and is a relatively large one to digest, representing 20.9 days of its three month ADV.  
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.

Sunshine Insurance Group Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Fastest in One Segment, Slowest in the Other

By Sumeet Singh

  • Sunshine Insurance Group (SIG), a life, health and P&C insurance company, aims to raise up to US$1bn in its HK IPO.
  • SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&H) and property and casualty (P&C) insurance in China.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

Fangzhou Group Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Fangzhou Group (FANGZHOU HK) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming HK IPO. The deal will be run by Citibank, UBS and ABC International. 
  • Fangzhou Group is an online chronic disease management platform in China, considered the largest in terms of average MAU in 2021, according to CIC.
  • It focuses on common and chronic diseases such as hypertension, cardiovascular and respiratory chronic diseases, providing tailored medical care and precision medicine covering the full disease cycle for patients.

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Sunshine Insurance (SUN HK), a Chinese life and P&C insurance company, is pre-marketing a US$1.0 billion HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
  • In Sunshine Insurance Group IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on Sunshine Life’s VNB margin decline and agent channel pressure; Sunshine P&C’s regulatory pressure on premiums and the group’s declining investment yield.

Sunshine Insurance Group IPO – Needs to Correct by Only 50%

By Sumeet Singh

  • Sunshine Insurance Group (SIG), a life, health and P&C insurance company, aims to raise around US$950m in its HK IPO.
  • SIG is an integrated insurance provider which offers both life and health (L&H) and property and casualty (P&C) insurance in China.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Replicating a CTA Via Factor Exposures and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Replicating a CTA Via Factor Exposures

Replicating a CTA Via Factor Exposures

By Nicolas Rabener

  • Strategies can be copied by recreating them from scratch or using factor exposures
  • CTAs can be replicated via factor exposure analysis by utilizing only 4 asset classes
  • Not a perfect replication, but surprisingly good given the limited input

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