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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Most Read: Tata Motors ADR, Wharf Holdings, Uzabase Inc, Nexon, OZ Minerals Ltd, Pendal Group, Axis Bank Ltd, Golden Energy & Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Tata Motors ADS Delisting – Here We Go Again – Lots of Fun To Be Had!
  • MSCI Nov 2022 SAIR: In-Line; Plus a Few Surprises
  • Uzabase (3966) Agrees to Carlyle Takeover
  • Tata Motors (TTM) To Delist ADSs: Details & Potential Trades
  • Nexon Q3 In-Line-Ish, Underperformance Achievement Unlocked, Buyback Language Odd
  • OZ Minerals (OZL) – Copper and Comps Have Caught Up
  • Perpetual Rejects EQT/​BPEA/​Regal’s Revised Offer But Seeks Pendal Merger Delay
  • Axis Bank (AXSB IN): Last of the SUUTI Selldown Removes Overhang
  • Axis Bank Placement – Second Deal for the Month but This Is Very Well Flagged
  • Golden Energy (GER SP): Widjaja Family’s Low-Balled Offer

Tata Motors ADS Delisting – Here We Go Again – Lots of Fun To Be Had!

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, with earnings, Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) announced that it would delist its ADS, making an application on or around 13 January.
  • This sounds relatively benign because since 2004 when the ADS was listed, local funding capacity has increased substantially. It may no longer be needed. 
  • But it is MUCH more interesting than that. There is lots of fun to be had here. 

MSCI Nov 2022 SAIR: In-Line; Plus a Few Surprises

By Brian Freitas


Uzabase (3966) Agrees to Carlyle Takeover

By Travis Lundy

  • Carlyle has launched a bid for business news and data service owner Uzabase Inc (3966 JP). The bid is far below the price of a couple years ago. 
  • But the price clears the 2022 high by 1 tick. Some will be OK with this, but some may not be. 
  • At a 72% premium, optically it appears attractive, but given circumstances, it is not a total knockout, though I don’t know who would come in.

Tata Motors (TTM) To Delist ADSs: Details & Potential Trades

By Brian Freitas


Nexon Q3 In-Line-Ish, Underperformance Achievement Unlocked, Buyback Language Odd

By Travis Lundy

  • Nexon (3659 JP) reported Q3 earnings and full-year forecasts today. Revenue came in at the bottom end of August guidance, despite the higher-than-forecast USD/yen rate. 
  • The forecast for full-year is below consensus. This may be seen as disappointing. The stock may fall on this. 
  • But a buyback announcement and relative valuation suggests time to cover the short. 

OZ Minerals (OZL) – Copper and Comps Have Caught Up

By Travis Lundy

  • In August, BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU) launched a $25/share bid – a price it saw as attractive and what target OZ Minerals Ltd (OZL AU) saw as opportunistic. 
  • Copper had fallen, and peer stock prices had fallen too. Since then, copper has rebounded and peers have too so what was a 25-30% premium no longer exists.
  • This means the price of OZL should “enjoy” different dynamics going forward.

Perpetual Rejects EQT/​BPEA/​Regal’s Revised Offer But Seeks Pendal Merger Delay

By David Blennerhassett

  • Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) has announced – and subsequently rejected – a revised non-binding proposal from EQT/BPEA/ Regal Partners (RPL AU) of A$33/share, up from the initial Offer of $30/share.
  • PPT factored in the value, high conditionality, transaction, and execution risks, and determined the proposal was not in the best interests of shareholders.
  • Against PPT’s request for a delay, Pendal (PDL AU) will proceed to the first court hearing for this week to convene a Scheme Meeting, which may occur in mid-December. 

Axis Bank (AXSB IN): Last of the SUUTI Selldown Removes Overhang

By Brian Freitas

  • The Administrator of the Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India (SUUTI) is offering 46.53m shares of Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) at a floor price of INR 830.63/share.
  • This will take SUUTI’s stake in Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) to zero and remove an overhang on the stock.
  • Coming in close to Bain’s partial stake sale last week, the stock could trade heavy. But Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) still trades cheaper than peers.

Axis Bank Placement – Second Deal for the Month but This Is Very Well Flagged

By Sumeet Singh

  • The Government of India (GoI) aims to raise around US$500m via selling a 1.4% stake in Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN)
  • This won’t be the first selldown by GoI as it has been reducing its stake since 2019. We have covered a number of the past deals in the name.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on other deal dynamics.

Golden Energy (GER SP): Widjaja Family’s Low-Balled Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP) has proposed in-specie-ing its holding in Golden Energy Mines (GEMS IJ), subsequent to which the Widjaja family will undertake an Exit Offer.
  • Ex-GEMS, the family is Offering S$0.16/share. That’s insulting. And the Offer was announced after GEAR’s share price had fallen 26%.  The Exit Offer has been declared final.
  • GEAR’s jewel is the stake in GEMS, and shareholders are afforded future exposure. However, the stub ops are worth considerably more than S$0.16/share. 

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Daily Brief South Korea: KT&G Corporation and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • An Interview with Flashlight Capital Patners CEO Lee Sanghyun on KT&G

An Interview with Flashlight Capital Patners CEO Lee Sanghyun on KT&G

By Douglas Kim

  • This past week, I had an interview with Lee Sanghyun, the founder and CEO of Flashlight Capital Partners (FCP) which is currently an activist investor on KT&G Corporation (033780 KS).
  • Our interview focused on five key issues including valuation, buyback & dividends, ginseng business spin-off, investment horizon, and aligning management’s interests with those of its shareholders.
  • FCP’s shareholder return plan is to 3x higher than the one currently proposed by the company. For further details, see FCP’s website https://flashlightcap.com/. 

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Daily Brief Singapore: Golden Energy & Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP)’s Lacking Offer from the Widjaja Family

Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP)’s Lacking Offer from the Widjaja Family

By Arun George

  • Golden Energy & Resources (GER SP)‘s proposal from the Widjaja family – The distribution proposal (1.3936 GEMS share per share or IDR5,500 per GEMS share) and the delisting proposal (S$0.160).
  • For minorities, the good news is that the distribution share ratio is in line with the control ratio and offers are at a premium to historical share prices/multiples. 
  • The bad news is that the distribution cash alternative is unattractive and the delisting offer values GEAR at a discount to the Stanmore Coal (SMR AU) stake adjusted for debt.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Medco Energi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, China Fortune Land, Country Garden Holdings Co

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, China Fortune Land, Country Garden Holdings Co

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Australia: Origin Energy, Pendal Group and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Origin Energy (ORG AU): Indicative Proposal from Brookfield & MidOcean; Index Implications
  • Perpetual Rejects EQT/​BPEA/​Regal’s Revised Offer But Seeks Pendal Merger Delay

Origin Energy (ORG AU): Indicative Proposal from Brookfield & MidOcean; Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • A Brookfield/MidOcean consortium has made a conditional, non-binding, indicative proposal to acquire 100% of the shares in Origin Energy (ORG AU) at A$9/share in cash.
  • The offer values Origin Energy (ORG AU)‘s equity at A$15.5bn and is a 54.9% premium to the last close. The premium is over 50% even using longer term VWAPs.
  • There will be changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices to maintain the number of index members. We will know more once an indicative timeline is published.

Perpetual Rejects EQT/​BPEA/​Regal’s Revised Offer But Seeks Pendal Merger Delay

By David Blennerhassett

  • Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) has announced – and subsequently rejected – a revised non-binding proposal from EQT/BPEA/ Regal Partners (RPL AU) of A$33/share, up from the initial Offer of $30/share.
  • PPT factored in the value, high conditionality, transaction, and execution risks, and determined the proposal was not in the best interests of shareholders.
  • Against PPT’s request for a delay, Pendal (PDL AU) will proceed to the first court hearing for this week to convene a Scheme Meeting, which may occur in mid-December. 

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Daily Brief India: Policybazaar, Axis Bank Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • PB Fintech (Policy Bazaar) Lockup Expiry – US$1bn+, Stock Down 60% but Everyone Is in the Money
  • Axis Bank (AXSB IN): Last of the SUUTI Selldown Removes Overhang

PB Fintech (Policy Bazaar) Lockup Expiry – US$1bn+, Stock Down 60% but Everyone Is in the Money

By Sumeet Singh

  • In Nov 2021, PB Fintech raised around US$793m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.  The lock-up on its pre-IPO shareholder will expire soon.
  • The company operates two platforms: Policybazaar operates in India’s online insurance product and service industry; and Paisabazaar platform operates in India’s online credit industry. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the upcoming lockup expiry.

Axis Bank (AXSB IN): Last of the SUUTI Selldown Removes Overhang

By Brian Freitas

  • The Administrator of the Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India (SUUTI) is offering 46.53m shares of Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) at a floor price of INR 830.63/share.
  • This will take SUUTI’s stake in Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) to zero and remove an overhang on the stock.
  • Coming in close to Bain’s partial stake sale last week, the stock could trade heavy. But Axis Bank Ltd (AXSB IN) still trades cheaper than peers.

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Daily Brief United States: The Walt Disney Co, Wynn Resorts, Arlo Technologies Inc, ACCO Brands, Xperi and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Disney 4Q2022: Cord Cutting Exacerbating DTC Losses
  • Wynn Resorts Ltd: Possible Macau Openings, Las Vegas Recovery,big Investor Takes 6.1% Position
  • ARLO: Service in a Tough Market, PT to $8
  • ACCO: Free Cash Flow Begins to Show
  • XPER: New Launches Reduce Execution Risk

Disney 4Q2022: Cord Cutting Exacerbating DTC Losses

By Aaron Gabin

  • Across the board miss as DTC losses peak, park margins weaken, and linear likely to fall off a cliff. 
  • Big FY2023 guide down on revenues (HSD vs. LDD previously) and OI growth (HSD vs. ~25% consensus previously). 
  • Disney profitability lower for longer as macro headwinds on parks, accelerating cord cutting, and pushed out D+ profitability means OI likely down $2B in both FY23-24.

Wynn Resorts Ltd: Possible Macau Openings, Las Vegas Recovery,big Investor Takes 6.1% Position

By Howard J Klein

  • Billionaire US investor Tillman Fertitta has bought into what he believes is an undervalued stock as the Las Vegas market recovery speeds up.
  • Stock could now be in play as Fertitta, Wynn’s ex-wife and Macau giant Galaxy now control a al of 20%  the outstanding shares.
  • Stock is up 18% since Fertitta’s buy last week. It could well be in play.

ARLO: Service in a Tough Market, PT to $8

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ARLO affirmed the slowdown in consumer purchasing that began in September and is expecting the market to remain soft through the middle of 2023
  • While ARLO had reduced channel inventory in the second quarter, it had started to ship more product into the channel by the time there was a shift in the market
  • Number of paid subscribers continues to rise in Q3 with ARLO adding 195 thousand. ARLO is expecting paid subscriber growth to continue as the channel sells units to the consumer

ACCO: Free Cash Flow Begins to Show

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ACCO had already warned of the sales shortfall in the third quarter but followed through on exhibiting the free cash flow capabilities of the business.
  • Retailers have changed their purchasing habits and that has led to slower sales at ACCO. 
  • Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, back to school season begins in Brazil and Australia, which should give a lift to sales. 

XPER: New Launches Reduce Execution Risk

By Hamed Khorsand

  • XPER reported third quarter results after becoming a separate operating business at the beginning of October
  • XPER is progressing in adding new customers for its different product lines with revenue expected to ramp in subsequent quarters
  • The third quarter did not have much in the form of surprises with XPER maintaining its full year guidance. 

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group, Hangzhou Great Star Industrial Co.,, Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding, Beijing Sinohytec Co Ltd, Tencent, Medco Energi and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK) Pre-Earnings: Will See Growth Again, At Least 43% Upside
  • Hangzhou GreatStar Industrial GDR Listing – Wider Discount Here and Momentum Has Been Strong
  • Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607 HK): Stable Core Business; New Drug Approvals to Accelerate Growth
  • Beijing SinoHytec A/H Listing – A Whole Lot of Promise but Not Much Earnings to Show for It Yet
  • Tencent (700 HK) Earning Preview: To Stop Decreasing in 3Q22, and an Upside of 67%
  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, China Fortune Land, Country Garden Holdings Co
  • Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607.HK)- Low Profitability Is Big Problem; Share Price Would Underperform

Alibaba (9988 HK) Pre-Earnings: Will See Growth Again, At Least 43% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • We believe the revenue growth will recover from zero in 1Q23 to 4% YoY in 2Q23.
  • We believe the operating margin will improve in the following two years because the company is cutting unprofitable businesses.
  • We set an upside of 43% according to other retailing giants’ price / sales ratios.

Hangzhou GreatStar Industrial GDR Listing – Wider Discount Here and Momentum Has Been Strong

By Clarence Chu

  • Hangzhou Great Star Industrial Co., (002444 CH) is looking to raise around US$150m in its Swiss GDR listing. Huatai is the sole bookrunner in the deal. 
  • The firm is offering 11.5m GDRs (1 GDR to 5 A-shares) for sale at a 16.1-18.7% discount to last close.
  • The deal would represent just 2.3 days of three month ADV and 4.3% of the firm’s current mcap.

Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607 HK): Stable Core Business; New Drug Approvals to Accelerate Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding (2607 HK) reported strong result for the first nine months of 2022, with revenue increasing 8.5% to RMB174.6B. Notably, total revenue growth accelerated to 13% in 3Q22.
  • With a leading market positioning and nation-wide distribution network, the company is well-positioned to benefit from the sector tailwinds. Easing of restrictions will provide a major impetus to the company.
  • The company has been improving its innovative drug pipeline. It has 42 innovative products in its pipeline, six of which are in pivotal studies.

Beijing SinoHytec A/H Listing – A Whole Lot of Promise but Not Much Earnings to Show for It Yet

By Sumeet Singh

  • Beijing Sinohytec Co Ltd (688339 CH) (BSH) is looking to raise up to US$400m via its H-shares listing.
  • BSH provides fuel cell systems in China, focusing on the design, development and manufacture of fuel cell systems and stacks mainly for commercial vehicles, such as buses and trucks.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s past performance and other deal dynamics.

Tencent (700 HK) Earning Preview: To Stop Decreasing in 3Q22, and an Upside of 67%

By Ming Lu

  • We believe Tencent’s revenue will stop declining in 3Q22 and bounce back thereafter.
  • We believe FinTech will grow fast, but online game will still be stagnant.
  • We expect Tencent will have an upside of 67% for year end 2023.

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, China Fortune Land, Country Garden Holdings Co

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Shanghai Pharmaceuticals (2607.HK)- Low Profitability Is Big Problem; Share Price Would Underperform

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The majority revenue of Shanghai Pharmaceuticals comes from pharmaceutical distribution business, but the pharmaceutical manufacturing business has much higher gross margin,which drives up the overall profit margin of the Company.
  • Due to VBP, profit margin is under pressure. Weak demand for COVID-19 vaccines, decreasing long-term profitability and concerns on synergistic effect of cooperation with Yunnan Baiyao cast doubt on outlook.
  • Compared with peers, the valuation of Shanghai Pharmaceuticals doesn’t show decent upside potential. High valuation expectations cannot be supported due to industry trend. Its share prices could underperform.

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Daily Brief Japan: Toshiba Corp, Totoku Electric, Nexon, Yokogawa Electric, Uzabase Inc, Pan Pacific International Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba – Realistic Valuation Disappoints Markets
  • Super High Premium Buyout for Totoku Electric (5807) By Carlyle
  • Nexon (3659) | More Buybacks in the Pipeline
  • Nexon Q3 In-Line-Ish, Underperformance Achievement Unlocked, Buyback Language Odd
  • Yokogawa Electric (6841 JP): High Energy Prices Point to Further Upside
  • Uzabase (3966) Agrees to Carlyle Takeover
  • PPIH: Combating Cost Inflation Through Personal Brands Growth

Toshiba – Realistic Valuation Disappoints Markets

By Mio Kato

  • The Nikkei reported on Monday that JIP’s bid values Toshiba at roughly ¥2.2trn. 
  • The stock has dropped to a level just below this valuation suggesting some anticipation of a Bain/JIC bid above that valuation. 
  • While that is plausible, the cautiousness of JIP’s bid highlights the fundamental downside risk here in our view.

Super High Premium Buyout for Totoku Electric (5807) By Carlyle

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, Carlyle announced a buyout of Totoku Electric (5807 JP) at ¥5,660/share, which was a cool 155% premium to Tuesday’s close of ¥2,215. The stock was limit up today. 
  • It will be limit up tomorrow, and the next day. And probably the next day. 
  • This is a very interesting outcome. But it is actually not as expensive as it “looks.”

Nexon (3659) | More Buybacks in the Pipeline

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nexon is our top pick within the Japanese Gaming Sector 
  • We see continued strong growth in revenue driven by existing game franchises in addition to new pipeline opportunities
  • Nexon is cash rich, debt free and is returning more and more money back to shareholders

Nexon Q3 In-Line-Ish, Underperformance Achievement Unlocked, Buyback Language Odd

By Travis Lundy

  • Nexon (3659 JP) reported Q3 earnings and full-year forecasts today. Revenue came in at the bottom end of August guidance, despite the higher-than-forecast USD/yen rate. 
  • The forecast for full-year is below consensus. This may be seen as disappointing. The stock may fall on this. 
  • But a buyback announcement and relative valuation suggests time to cover the short. 

Yokogawa Electric (6841 JP): High Energy Prices Point to Further Upside

By Scott Foster

  • Strong 1H orders and the second upward revision to guidance this fiscal year have lifted the share price to a new high.
  • The energy shortage and high energy prices should continue to drive demand for Yokogawa’s oil, gas and power related industrial control equipment. Demand from other users is also rising.
  • Valuations suggest 15% to 20% additional upside potential for the share price. Recession or a strengthening of the yen could put this at risk, so watch the order flow.

Uzabase (3966) Agrees to Carlyle Takeover

By Travis Lundy

  • Carlyle has launched a bid for business news and data service owner Uzabase Inc (3966 JP). The bid is far below the price of a couple years ago. 
  • But the price clears the 2022 high by 1 tick. Some will be OK with this, but some may not be. 
  • At a 72% premium, optically it appears attractive, but given circumstances, it is not a total knockout, though I don’t know who would come in.

PPIH: Combating Cost Inflation Through Personal Brands Growth

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)’s 1QFY23 was broadly in line with consensus estimates with revenue and OP of ¥473.7bn (consensus: ¥473.8bn) and ¥23.9bn (consensus: ¥23.8bn) respectively.
  • Personal brands growth and Asia expansion are driving up PPIH’s margins while most companies in the consumer sphere are failing to pass down cost inflation.
  • With signs of OP moving to the pre-UNY acquisition level, we think that there’s an upside to the company’s medium-term guidance and consensus.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: CCB and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Short Interest Weekly: CCB, Alibaba, Trip.com, AIA

HK Short Interest Weekly: CCB, Alibaba, Trip.com, AIA

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 28th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in CCB, Alibaba, trip.com, and AIA.

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