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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Oct 29
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Fanuc Corp, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Ibiden, Fanuc, Canon
  • Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

Japan Weekly | Ibiden, Fanuc, Canon

By Mark Chadwick

  • NKY +0.80%WoW;  TOPIX +0.91%WoW;  TSE Mothers +3.0%WoW.  3 days up; 2 days down this week as small caps; high valuation and tech stocks rallied
  • PM Kishida orders additional fiscal stimulus of ¥29.1 trillion.  Including other private sector investment and funding, the total stimulus size to exceed ¥71 trillion.
  • Bank of Japan maintains their ultra looks monetary policy in place at the end of their 2-day policy meeting

Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
  • We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int’l Compass
  • We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.

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Oct 29
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Fanuc Corp, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Ibiden, Fanuc, Canon
  • Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

Japan Weekly | Ibiden, Fanuc, Canon

By Mark Chadwick

  • NKY +0.80%WoW;  TOPIX +0.91%WoW;  TSE Mothers +3.0%WoW.  3 days up; 2 days down this week as small caps; high valuation and tech stocks rallied
  • PM Kishida orders additional fiscal stimulus of ¥29.1 trillion.  Including other private sector investment and funding, the total stimulus size to exceed ¥71 trillion.
  • Bank of Japan maintains their ultra looks monetary policy in place at the end of their 2-day policy meeting

Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
  • We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int’l Compass
  • We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.

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Oct 29
0

Daily Brief Financials: SBI Holdings, Banco Do Brasil Sa, Alam Sutera Realty and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2023: End-Oct 2022
  • September Brazil Bank Data Charts – Arrears Imply Better NPLs Trends to Come; Have Spreads Peaked?
  • Weekly Wrap – 28 Oct 2022

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2023: End-Oct 2022

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
  • A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
  • Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2023 based on trading data as of end-October 2022.

September Brazil Bank Data Charts – Arrears Imply Better NPLs Trends to Come; Have Spreads Peaked?

By Victor Galliano

  • In September, we highlight that data on credit in arrears (15-90 days overdue) showed MoM improvements in all our measures; this implies a positive leading indicator for NPLs
  • System loan growth was +16.8% for the twelve months to September, a slight acceleration from the August YoY rate (+16.7%), due largely to faster corporate loan growth
  • New credit spreads appear to have peaked, even if spreads on average loans are set to remain elevated; we favour Banco do Brasil, for good credit quality and attractive valuations

Weekly Wrap – 28 Oct 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Lippo Karawaci
  2. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  3. JSW Steel Ltd
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Guangzhou R&F Properties

and more…

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Oct 29
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Novartis AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): Better-Than-Expected Q3 Result; Guidance Raised 2nd Time This Year
  • Novartis ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Latest Focus Areas & Key Drivers

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): Better-Than-Expected Q3 Result; Guidance Raised 2nd Time This Year

By Tina Banerjee

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US) reported 18% y/y revenue growth to $2.3 billion, led by 46% growth outside the U.S. on continued strong uptake of Trikafta. U.S. revenue grew 5% y/y.
  • The company raised full-year 2022 product revenue guidance by 2% at the mid-point to $8.8–8.9 billion, representing 17% y/y growth at the mid-point.
  • The company will submit biologics licensing application (BLA) for exa-cel to the FDA, beginning in November 2022 and expects to complete the submission by the end of Q1 2023.

Novartis ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Latest Focus Areas & Key Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report global pharma major, Novartis.
  • The company delivered a mixed set of results for the last quarter, failing to meet Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues but managing an earnings beat.
  • The innovative medicine sales grew consistently in the quarter across the U.S.

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Oct 29
0

Daily Brief Australia: Rio Tinto PLC and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Rio Tinto ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

Rio Tinto ADR: Initiation of Coverage – Business Strategy

By Baptista Research

  • This is our first report on global metals and mining giant, Rio Tinto.
  • The company has been witnessing a decent demand for all of its primary commodities as per recent results.
  • Moreover, the Rio Tinto Safe Production System is still being effectively implemented, and there are now 15 deployments at 11 sites, up from 5 sites at the beginning of the year.

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Oct 29
0

Most Read: Taiwan Glass Industry, Sembcorp Marine, Hitachi Transport System, Keppel Corp, Eoflow, Hang Lung, Samsung Electronics, Lygend Resources & Technology, SBI Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dividend+ Index Rebal Trades – Offsets Other Index Risk
  • Sembcorp Marine & Keppel O&M: Revised Terms & Index Implications
  • Hitachi Transport (9086) – KKR Deal Is Here And There Are Index Implications
  • Keppel & Sembcorp Marine Revise Transaction, Improve Terms to SMM
  • KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150: Rule Clarifications & Rebalancing Predictions
  • Hang Lung Group’s All-Time Low P/B As Hang Lung Props Rolls Over
  • Detailing KRX’s Proposed New Rules (Pre-Registration/Monitoring) For High-Frequency Traders
  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Oct 28th): Aia, Great Wall Motor, Wuxi Biologics
  • Lygend Resources & Technology Pre-IPO – Resting Its Hopes and Dreams on a JV with a Singular Partner
  • JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2023: End-Oct 2022

Taiwan Dividend+ Index Rebal Trades – Offsets Other Index Risk

By Travis Lundy

  • The FTSE Taiwan Dividend+ Index is a fabulously interesting index from an index prediction trading standpoint. Because it works off negative momentum, the bias risk is different from normal indices.
  • And there is a turn. That turn is where what had been bad becomes good, becomes very good, then turns bad again. 
  • This insight proposes a basket to buy, and a basket to short, and if the basket to buy ends up not going in, it is a high quality problem.

Sembcorp Marine & Keppel O&M: Revised Terms & Index Implications

By Brian Freitas

  • Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) will now acquire Keppel O&M from Keppel Corp (KEP SP) at an 8% lower consideration at a revised exchange ratio of 46:54 vs 44:56 earlier.
  • The simplified transaction structure is expected to reduce consent and approval requirements and could reduce completion time by up to 2 months. Expected completion now is December or Jan.
  • At a proforma market cap of S$7bn, there could be selling in Sembcorp Marine from MSCI Singapore and FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX) trackers at the time of implementation.

Hitachi Transport (9086) – KKR Deal Is Here And There Are Index Implications

By Travis Lundy

  • The KKR deal for Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) is here. 
  • Some were worried KKR would walk. That was never a worry. Some worried Russia wouldn’t approve. There was always a way. 
  • This deal should trade tight. New money might be better allocated elsewhere. Arbitrageurs and investors should be wary of the index effects of the TOPIX FFW adjustment tomorrow at close.

Keppel & Sembcorp Marine Revise Transaction, Improve Terms to SMM

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Keppel Corp (KEP SP) and Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) made an announcement of revised structure and revised terms.
  • Under revised terms, Sembcorp will issue fewer shares to Keppel, and it will be a takeover rather than Scheme of Arrangement. Keppel will deliver more shares to shareholders, keeping less. 
  • Just like the first announcement, there is a little here for everyone. Keppel doesn’t do a great job of selling it but it is still win-win. 

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150: Rule Clarifications & Rebalancing Predictions

By Sanghyun Park

  • The 2nd screening only deals with those who have passed the 1st screening. The 2nd screening does NOT include the first company to cross the threshold.
  • Lotte Confectionery will be the only addition to the KOSPI 200. Samyang Holdings or Hyundai Home Shopping Network will leave the index.
  • There will be ten changes in the KOSDAQ 150: eight regular & two special entries. WCP’s special entry still seems uncertain due to the GICS classification issue.

Hang Lung Group’s All-Time Low P/B As Hang Lung Props Rolls Over

By David Blennerhassett

  • Hang Lung Group (10 HK) is currently trading at a miserly 0.15x P/B, its lowest level since records began.
  • It has also been somewhat of a forgetful week for 59.5%-held Hang Lung Properties (101 HK), down 12%, following Wednesday’s 7% decline.
  • HLG’s discount to NAV has retraced back to levels last seen during the 2020 Covid lows. 

Detailing KRX’s Proposed New Rules (Pre-Registration/Monitoring) For High-Frequency Traders

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX proposes three new rules: 1. trader pre-registration, 2. brokerages’ risk management measures, and 3. traders’ risk management tools
  • KRX plans to implement it in January next year with a grace period of three months for the pre-registration after the effective date.
  • The key is to what extent KRX will flexibly monitor and supervise this. If not, market liquidity will be significantly reduced, resulting in a distortion that widens the market spread.

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Oct 28th): Aia, Great Wall Motor, Wuxi Biologics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Oct 28th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Aia (1299 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Aia (1299 HK), Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK).

Lygend Resources & Technology Pre-IPO – Resting Its Hopes and Dreams on a JV with a Singular Partner

By Clarence Chu

  • Lygend Resources & Technology (LR HK) is looking to raise about US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Lygend Resources & Technology (Lygend) is a nickel trading and production firm with a portfolio covering multiple areas across the nickel industry value chain.
  • With the Obi Project expanding the firm’s capacity into the higher margin production segment, Lygend expects sales and profitability to pick up. 

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2023: End-Oct 2022

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
  • A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the potential forward inclusions and removals every month.
  • Below is a look at potential Inclusions and Removals for the JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebalance to come in August 2023 based on trading data as of end-October 2022.

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
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Oct 29
0

Daily Brief United States: Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Intel Corp, iShares MSCI EAFE ETF, Micron Technology, Nike and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): Better-Than-Expected Q3 Result; Guidance Raised 2nd Time This Year
  • Intel 3Q22: Still Too Optimistic
  • Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders
  • Micron Technology: The New York Mega Fab & Other Drivers
  • Nike Inc: The Connected Partnership & Other Drivers

Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US): Better-Than-Expected Q3 Result; Guidance Raised 2nd Time This Year

By Tina Banerjee

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX US) reported 18% y/y revenue growth to $2.3 billion, led by 46% growth outside the U.S. on continued strong uptake of Trikafta. U.S. revenue grew 5% y/y.
  • The company raised full-year 2022 product revenue guidance by 2% at the mid-point to $8.8–8.9 billion, representing 17% y/y growth at the mid-point.
  • The company will submit biologics licensing application (BLA) for exa-cel to the FDA, beginning in November 2022 and expects to complete the submission by the end of Q1 2023.

Intel 3Q22: Still Too Optimistic

By Aaron Gabin

  • Intel put forth a significant cost cutting program to generate $3B in savings in 2023 and $8-10B by 2025.
  • CEO Gelsinger’s PC forecasting track record is horrendous, we wouldn’t bet on a down MSD 2023 market.
  • Datacenter…which once carried near 60% margins hit breakeven this quarter… an astonishing fall.

Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
  • We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int’l Compass
  • We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.

Micron Technology: The New York Mega Fab & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Micron delivered a mixed set of results for the previous quarter, missing out on the revenue expectations of Wall Street but managing an earnings beat.
  • As a result, demand is being reduced for the other parts of the supply chain, which already have more than enough inventory, because the servers cannot be built.
  • Therefore, although the overall demand for clouds is generally healthy, this is one factor that is having an impact on it.

Nike Inc: The Connected Partnership & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Nike successfully delivered yet another all-around beat in the first quarter of the new fiscal with its key brands, Nike, Jordan, and Converse continue to enjoy strong consumer affinity and demand.
  • For the quarter, their revenue grew by double-digits and the company generated the highest net revenue quarter ever for Nike Digital.
  • Customers are still supporting Nike Digital, as evidenced by the Nike commerce app’s record-breaking Q1 traffic.

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Oct 29
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Alam Sutera Realty and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 28 Oct 2022

Weekly Wrap – 28 Oct 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Lippo Karawaci
  2. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  3. JSW Steel Ltd
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Guangzhou R&F Properties

and more…

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Oct 29
0

Daily Brief India: Alam Sutera Realty and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Wrap – 28 Oct 2022

Weekly Wrap – 28 Oct 2022

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.

In this Insight:

  1. Lippo Karawaci
  2. Seazen (Formerly Future Land)
  3. JSW Steel Ltd
  4. China Jinmao Holdings
  5. Guangzhou R&F Properties

and more…

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Oct 29
0

Daily Brief China: Lygend Resources & Technology, Atour Lifestyle Holdings, Tencent, Tianqi Lithium and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lygend Resources & Technology Pre-IPO – Resting Its Hopes and Dreams on a JV with a Singular Partner
  • Atour Lifestyle Holdings IPO Analysis
  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (28 October 2022)
  • Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (28 October 2022)

Lygend Resources & Technology Pre-IPO – Resting Its Hopes and Dreams on a JV with a Singular Partner

By Clarence Chu

  • Lygend Resources & Technology (LR HK) is looking to raise about US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO.
  • Lygend Resources & Technology (Lygend) is a nickel trading and production firm with a portfolio covering multiple areas across the nickel industry value chain.
  • With the Obi Project expanding the firm’s capacity into the higher margin production segment, Lygend expects sales and profitability to pick up. 

Atour Lifestyle Holdings IPO Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT US) is a leading upper midscale hotel chain group in China is getting ready for an IPO in the US.
  • We believe that a valuation range of RMB12.8 billion ($1.8 billion) to RMB16.9 billion ($2.3 billion) is appropriate for Atour Lifestyle Holdings. 
  • Unless the IPO is priced sufficiently lower than the intrinsic value of the company, many institutional investors will likely pass on the IPO given the Bearish market sentiment.

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Southbound Connect: Weekly Moves (28 October 2022)

By David Blennerhassett

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (28 October 2022)

By David Blennerhassett

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