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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief ECM: Leapmotor IPO – Weak Demand but Concentrated Allocation and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Leapmotor IPO – Weak Demand but Concentrated Allocation
  • Taiwan Cement Placement- Suffers from Weak Momentum but Deal Is Well Flagged and SI Has Been Growing
  • Onewo Space-Tech IPO Trading – Weak but Relatively Better Demand
  • Leapmotor IPO: Trading Debut
  • Onewo IPO: Trading Debut
  • Lawson Confirms Seijo Ishii IPO
  • Oravel Stays (Oyo) Pre-IPO – Addendum Updates – Don’t Let the +ve EBITDA Mask Its Underlying Issues
  • Leapmotor IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading
  • WCP IPO Trading – Peer Correction Means Price Cut Still Wasn’t Enough
  • Unity Software: The AppLovin Acquisition Story & Other Developments

Leapmotor IPO – Weak Demand but Concentrated Allocation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Leapmotor (9863 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
  • As of end Jun 22, it had delivered a total of 104,829 cars with most of its sales coming from its mini units, T03.
  • In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

Taiwan Cement Placement- Suffers from Weak Momentum but Deal Is Well Flagged and SI Has Been Growing

By Clarence Chu

  • Taiwan Cement (1101 TT) is looking to raise US$437m from its GDS offering.
  • The firm is offering 84m GDSs, or 420m common shares (1:5 conversion), at a 5.1-7.8% discount to its last close.
  • While momentum hasn’t been the greatest, the deal is well flagged and short covering could support share price in the near term.

Onewo Space-Tech IPO Trading – Weak but Relatively Better Demand

By Sumeet Singh

  • Onewo (2602 HK) (OST) raised around US$733m in its Hong Kong IPO. OST is a property management service provider primarily owned by China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK) . 
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, amongst the residential community service providers in China, OST ranked first. It also ranked first in the commercial space integrated services market in China.
  • In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

Leapmotor IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • Leapmotor (9863 HK) priced its H Share at HK$48.00 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$6,057.4 million (US$772 million). The H Share will start trading tomorrow.
  • The H Shares of peers posted no first-day gains and are currently below the listing prices. Market sentiment on peers has remained weak since the release of the prospectus.
  • Leapmotor, at best, should trade in line with median peer multiples. Leapmotor is fairly valued at the IPO price. We continue to remain on the sidelines.

Onewo IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • Onewo (2602 HK) priced its H Share at HK$49.35 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$5.6 billion (US$713 million). The H Share will start trading tomorrow.
  • Notwithstanding the industry headwinds, the H Shares of peers with financially sound parentco backgrounds are trading above the listing prices.
  • Despite peer multiple derating, the IPO price remains attractive compared to peers with financially sound parentco backgrounds. 

Lawson Confirms Seijo Ishii IPO

By Michael Causton

  • Lawson Inc (2651 JP) has confirmed it will list its upscale supermarket subsidiary, Seijo Ishii early next year.
  • Seijo leads in premium supermarket retailing and is growing as fast as the wealth market does, with plenty of room left to expand.
  • Seijo Ishii is now building its own production and import capabilities to increase originality and could begin to challenge even some of their larger rivals.

Oravel Stays (Oyo) Pre-IPO – Addendum Updates – Don’t Let the +ve EBITDA Mask Its Underlying Issues

By Clarence Chu

  • Oyo (1698548D IN) is looking to raise around US$700m in its upcoming India IPO. The IPO will consist of both a primary and secondary portion.
  • Oyo runs a digital platform that serves as a hotel and home aggregator between patrons, which include owners and lessors, and customers, such as travelers and guests booking for accommodation.
  • Since our last notes, Oravel Stays (Oyo) had filed its addendum, containing both its full-year performance for FY22, and its most recent 1Q23 performance (period ending Jun 2022).

Leapmotor IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Leapmotor (9863 HK) has priced its IPO at HK$48 per share, at the lower end of the indicative IPO price range of HK$48-62 per share. 
  • At the above price, the company raised net proceeds of approx. HK$6,057.4m at a market capitalisation of HK$54.9bn and a post-money EV of HK$45.9bn.
  • The HK offering was undersubscribed while the international offering was initially oversubscribed by 2.33x and the unsubscribed portion of the HK offering was later reallocated to international offering.

WCP IPO Trading – Peer Correction Means Price Cut Still Wasn’t Enough

By Sumeet Singh

  • WCP raised around US$314m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Korean IPO.
  • WCP designs, manufactures, and sells separators, which are one of the four core materials for secondary Lithium-ion batteries.
  • In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

Unity Software: The AppLovin Acquisition Story & Other Developments

By Baptista Research

  • Unity Software has been in the news for a number of reasons be it the ironSource acquisition or the management’s rejection of Applovin’s $20 billion acquisition offer.
  • While Unity did surpass Wall Street expectations with respect to revenues, the company’s losses were wider than anticipated.
  • On Oculus Quest, Unity Games accounted for 72% of the top-selling games and 80% of the top-performing VR games in July.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: SATS to Buy Worldwide Flight Services (WFS) As Private Equity Exits and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • SATS to Buy Worldwide Flight Services (WFS) As Private Equity Exits
  • Bilibili (9626 HK): Implications of Dual Primary Listing
  • SATS Agrees to Acquire WFS for an EV of S$3.1 Billion
  • Soon-To-Be Cashed-Up Jasmine After Broadband Sale
  • TIGER (FnGuide) Top 10 ETF Rebalancing: Noteworthy Changes Emerging
  • DAX/​​​MDAX/​​​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Porsche AG IPO Makes Things Interesting
  • Biffa Accepts Lowered Bid from Energy Capital Partners
  • EQD | FTSE100 (UKX Index):  GBPUSD Vol Has Exploded Offering Opportunites to Spread Against FTSE100

SATS to Buy Worldwide Flight Services (WFS) As Private Equity Exits

By Brian Freitas

  • SATS (SATS SP) has announced that it is buying Worldwide Flight Services (WFS) from an affiliate of Cerberus Capital Management at an Enterprise Value of €2.25bn (S$3.107bn).
  • The cash consideration is €1.187bn (S$1.639bn) and will likely be financed by an equity fund raising. This could be a rights issue and could be combined with a private placement.
  • Expect the stock to drop once it resumes trading. A significant drop from current levels could provide a buying opportunity as the rights issue could be backstopped.

Bilibili (9626 HK): Implications of Dual Primary Listing

By Brian Freitas


SATS Agrees to Acquire WFS for an EV of S$3.1 Billion

By Arun George

  • SATS (SATS SP) agreed to acquire Worldwide Flight Services (WFS), the world’s largest air cargo handling firm, from Cerberus Capital for a cash consideration of S$1,639 million. 
  • The base funding plan is based on a S$1.7 billion equity raise. The uncertain structure and timing of the equity raise will be a short-term overhang. 
  • The acquisition is conditional on shareholder and regulatory approvals. Assuming no synergies, our pro-forma price per share is S$4.97, a 28.5% upside to the last close.

Soon-To-Be Cashed-Up Jasmine After Broadband Sale

By David Blennerhassett


TIGER (FnGuide) Top 10 ETF Rebalancing: Noteworthy Changes Emerging

By Sanghyun Park

  • There was a substantial increase in the AUM even in the current market condition. More funds must have sought blue chip stocks as relatively safe assets in this volatile market.
  • Celltrion and LG Energy Solution will likely replace KB Financial and Shinhan Financial. On the other hand, POSCO is out of the race even with a +5%p float rate change.
  • LG Energy also has an up-weight event of the KOSPI 200. Since these passive flow events have an interval of only one day, we expect a fairly concentrated passive impact.

DAX/​​​MDAX/​​​SDAX Quiddity Leaderboard Dec 22: Porsche AG IPO Makes Things Interesting

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELETEs for the DAX, MDAX, and SDAX Indices.
  • Based on current share prices, there are no changes for the DAX index. However, there could be multiple changes for the MDAX and SDAX indices.
  • I have also discussed the index implications for the Porsche AG (P911 GR) IPO.

Biffa Accepts Lowered Bid from Energy Capital Partners

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • ECP lowers its initial offer to 410p/share in cash plus the final dividend of 4.69p/share (28% premium, implied equity value is €1,269 million, implied EV is €1,847 million).
  • The offer represents 1.2x EV/Fwd revenue, 8.3x EV/Fwd EBITDA and 32.1x Fwd P/E. Suez was taken at similar multiples: 1.5x, 8.1x and 27.4x respectively. My updated fair value estimate (DCF-based) is 410.6p.
  • The equity value prior to approach was undemanding. The offer price seems fair. Gross spread (including final dividend) is 2.1%. Reiterate Long BIFF LN.

EQD | FTSE100 (UKX Index):  GBPUSD Vol Has Exploded Offering Opportunites to Spread Against FTSE100

By Simon Harris

  • GBP depreciation and UK mini budget have triggered a spike in volatility to decade highs
  • Currency vol is trading at extreme levels vs Equity vol offering trade opportunities
  • FTSE100 is trading cheap and we suggest a smart way to play upside

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Eisai Co (4523 JP): Positive Trial Result For Alzheimer’s Disease Drug- A Step Closer to Approval and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Eisai Co (4523 JP): Positive Trial Result For Alzheimer’s Disease Drug- A Step Closer to Approval
  • Appier (4180) | Five Reasons to Remain Bullish
  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Injecting Digital Health
  • China Datang Renewable Power (1798): Ideal Name for ESG Fund.
  • Key Market Technicals
  • Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) – Filter Me Please
  • Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Pairs Monitor: SET50 Index Driver, But Taiwan Margins Always Higher
  • Ad-Based Streaming: Are We Sure This Is Netflix’s Panacea (Or Disney?)
  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Multiple Drivers Ahead
  • Joinn Laboratories (6127.HK) 22H1 – It’s Time to Face Reality Before the Magic of Monkeys Disappears

Eisai Co (4523 JP): Positive Trial Result For Alzheimer’s Disease Drug- A Step Closer to Approval

By Tina Banerjee

  • Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) has announced positive clinical trial results for its Alzheimer’s disease (AD) drug candidate, lecanemab. Lecanemab succeeded in slowing cognitive decline by 27%.
  • Importantly, the study shows that removal of aggregated amyloid beta in the brain is associated with a slowing of disease in patients, thereby opening innovation pathway for new treatment options.
  • Eisai aims to file for traditional approval in the U.S. and to submit marketing authorization applications in Japan and Europe by the end of FY23.

Appier (4180) | Five Reasons to Remain Bullish

By Mark Chadwick

  • Appier provides AI software that helps large enterprises to grow and monetize their customer base. 
  • Using Appier’s AI analysis tools, brands can automate the way they interact with shoppers and create new business models more efficiently
  • Business is booming, it is sheltered from macro headwinds and the TAM is expanding aggressively as Appier expands into key US/EMEA markets

Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Injecting Digital Health

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) remains the leading diagnostics company in Indonesia and was a huge beneficiary of the pandemic and hence has seen a recent slowdown.
  • The number of tests per visit increased in 1H2022, as customers returned to more routine testing post COVID plus the company is increasingly employing a digital approach to its business.
  • Prodia is forecast to return to growth over the next two years, with  +11% EPS growth forecast for FY2023E and FY2024E, implying a forward PER of 8.6x.

China Datang Renewable Power (1798): Ideal Name for ESG Fund.

By Henry Soediarko

  • Low valuation against peers in China albeit China Datang Corp Renewable Power (1798 HK) is one of the few pure-play wind farm operators in HK. 
  • Its free cash flow reached its highest in more than 10 years. 
  • The challenging equity market makes China Datang Renewable Power looks even more attractive.

Key Market Technicals

By BluSuit

  • This is certainly a macro development that will influence the direction of the markets.
  • Essentially, what this means is that the markets are showing “signs of breaking” from the Federal Reserves aggressive tightening cycle.
  • Today, we are going to be more focused on market technicals but I wanted to touch briefly on this and will go into more depth this weekend.

Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) – Filter Me Please

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) is one of the most interesting industrial companies in Indonesia but also the largest filter manufacturer in South-East Asia for heavy equipment and autos. 
  • The company mainly produces filters for the replacement market under its Sakura brand, with Indonesia being the major growth driver along with the US but it exports to 120 countries. 
  • The company has an almost second-to-none track record for growth in both profits and dividends, with current valuations looking attractive. 

Delta Taiwan Vs. Thailand Pairs Monitor: SET50 Index Driver, But Taiwan Margins Always Higher

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Since 2Q22 results end-July, Delta Thailand has risen 31% compared to a 3% rise for Delta Taiwan and a 2% rise for Thailand’s SET Index.
  • Delta Taiwan’s gross margin has historically been consistently higher than Delta Thailand’s. Delta Thailand is a significant licensor of IP from its parent, which could be one reason.
  • Historical data shows that the relative valuation can swing back over time and the current divergence of Delta Thailand vs. Delta Taiwan is historically extreme.

Ad-Based Streaming: Are We Sure This Is Netflix’s Panacea (Or Disney?)

By Aaron Gabin

  • Netflix has had a slew of upgrades recently on bullish estimates for its coming advertising supported tier…with the upgrades buying into Netflix’s exorbitant CPM demands.
  • We think advertising supported is revenue accretive for the US and Canada, but question how this works out internationally.
  • Disney is far better positioned for AVOD. It has a developed ad infrastructure, owns all its content, and has better brands to sell advertising against.

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Multiple Drivers Ahead

By Angus Mackintosh

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) continues to see strong sales momentum in July and August after releasing a strong set of 1H2022 results previously with strong momentum expected to year-end.
  • Both petroleum distribution and chemical distribution are seeing strong tailwinds and its gas station business should be a beneficiary of the fuel price hike.
  • AKR Corporindo‘s JIIPE estate booked a large 37-hectare plot sale in August with a potential for more smelter-related buyers to come. Valuations look fair but there are potential catalysts ahead.

Joinn Laboratories (6127.HK) 22H1 – It’s Time to Face Reality Before the Magic of Monkeys Disappears

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The monkeys have become Joinn Laboratories (H) (6127 HK)’s important profit growth point based on the logic chain of “monkey supply shortage – monkey price rise – Joinn’s performance increase”. 
  • Faced with doubts about the future prosperity of CXO, we don’t think Joinn is immune as a part of this industrial chain. Joinn is hard to achieve the V-shaped rebound.
  • Valuations are hard to increase by when the industry is very mature.For investment logic, my favorite is the industry beta, followed by industry beta+alpha. The last is low P/E ratio.

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Daily Brief Thailand: Jasmine International PCL and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Soon-To-Be Cashed-Up Jasmine After Broadband Sale

Soon-To-Be Cashed-Up Jasmine After Broadband Sale

By David Blennerhassett


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Daily Brief Indonesia: Prodia, Selamat Sempurna, AKR Corporindo and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Injecting Digital Health
  • Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) – Filter Me Please
  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Multiple Drivers Ahead

Prodia (PRDA IJ) – Injecting Digital Health

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Prodia (PRDA IJ) remains the leading diagnostics company in Indonesia and was a huge beneficiary of the pandemic and hence has seen a recent slowdown.
  • The number of tests per visit increased in 1H2022, as customers returned to more routine testing post COVID plus the company is increasingly employing a digital approach to its business.
  • Prodia is forecast to return to growth over the next two years, with  +11% EPS growth forecast for FY2023E and FY2024E, implying a forward PER of 8.6x.

Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) – Filter Me Please

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ) is one of the most interesting industrial companies in Indonesia but also the largest filter manufacturer in South-East Asia for heavy equipment and autos. 
  • The company mainly produces filters for the replacement market under its Sakura brand, with Indonesia being the major growth driver along with the US but it exports to 120 countries. 
  • The company has an almost second-to-none track record for growth in both profits and dividends, with current valuations looking attractive. 

AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) – Multiple Drivers Ahead

By Angus Mackintosh

  • AKR Corporindo (AKRA IJ) continues to see strong sales momentum in July and August after releasing a strong set of 1H2022 results previously with strong momentum expected to year-end.
  • Both petroleum distribution and chemical distribution are seeing strong tailwinds and its gas station business should be a beneficiary of the fuel price hike.
  • AKR Corporindo‘s JIIPE estate booked a large 37-hectare plot sale in August with a potential for more smelter-related buyers to come. Valuations look fair but there are potential catalysts ahead.

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Daily Brief South Korea: LG Energy Solution, WCP, SK Telecom and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • TIGER (FnGuide) Top 10 ETF Rebalancing: Noteworthy Changes Emerging
  • WCP IPO Trading – Peer Correction Means Price Cut Still Wasn’t Enough
  • Launch of KRX/S&P ESG High Dividends Index

TIGER (FnGuide) Top 10 ETF Rebalancing: Noteworthy Changes Emerging

By Sanghyun Park

  • There was a substantial increase in the AUM even in the current market condition. More funds must have sought blue chip stocks as relatively safe assets in this volatile market.
  • Celltrion and LG Energy Solution will likely replace KB Financial and Shinhan Financial. On the other hand, POSCO is out of the race even with a +5%p float rate change.
  • LG Energy also has an up-weight event of the KOSPI 200. Since these passive flow events have an interval of only one day, we expect a fairly concentrated passive impact.

WCP IPO Trading – Peer Correction Means Price Cut Still Wasn’t Enough

By Sumeet Singh

  • WCP raised around US$314m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Korean IPO.
  • WCP designs, manufactures, and sells separators, which are one of the four core materials for secondary Lithium-ion batteries.
  • In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

Launch of KRX/S&P ESG High Dividends Index

By Douglas Kim

  • KRX plans to launch KRX/S&P ESG High Dividends Index on 4 October. This index will be composed of stocks in KOSPI 200 which have high dividend yields and ESG scores.
  • We provided a list of 20 stocks in KOSPI with high dividend yields with at least 500 billion won in market cap and those that have higher ESG scores.
  • Amid a major downturn in the global stock markets, there is a greater emphasis on the preservation of capital and increasing capital allocation to higher dividend yielding stocks.

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Daily Brief Macro: Dr BoE Brings Bonds to Heel for Healing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Dr BoE Brings Bonds to Heel for Healing
  • The Philippines: Limited Upside To Peso Even If Dollar Strength Abates
  • CX Daily: Cash-Strapped Local Governments Turn to Financing Vehicles to Plug Fiscal Shortfalls
  • CX Daily: Has China’s Monetary Policy Reached Its Limit?

Dr BoE Brings Bonds to Heel for Healing

By Phil Rush

  • UK market misfunctioning has forced the BoE to intervene in-between meetings. It will buy gilts every day until 14 October without an overall limit.
  • That aggressive intervention is reassuringly responding to the real issue rather than blindly following commentators calling for rate hikes to match dysfunctional pricing.
  • The BoE has postponed its active gilt sales until 31 October. However, the forced U-turn within a week should highlight the risk of its worryingly non-state-dependent policy.

The Philippines: Limited Upside To Peso Even If Dollar Strength Abates

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Both the consumer and business confidence surveys shine a light on the negative spillovers from rising inflationary pressures in the Philippines.
  • CPI inflation may have peaked, in our view, but the higher price pressures will weigh on household spending just as the effects of monetary tightening become more apparent.
  • Longer-Term, a structurally weaker Peso is likely under the incumbent administration, given the dearth of FDI from a timid reform agenda and slowing remittances and BPO revenues.

CX Daily: Cash-Strapped Local Governments Turn to Financing Vehicles to Plug Fiscal Shortfalls

By Caixin Global

  • In Depth: Cash-strapped local governments turn to financing vehicles to plug fiscal shortfalls

  • Communist Party elects delegates ahead of 20th National Congress

  • Charts of the Day: Yuan’s cross-border settlements grew in 2021


CX Daily: Has China’s Monetary Policy Reached Its Limit?

By Caixin Global

  • Monetary / In Depth: Has China’s monetary policy reached its limit?

  • Cyberattack / Alleged U.S. cyberattack targeted China’s key telecom infrastructure

  • Pensions / China announces tax breaks to kick start personal pensions market


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Daily Brief India: Oyo and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Oravel Stays (Oyo) Pre-IPO – Addendum Updates – Don’t Let the +ve EBITDA Mask Its Underlying Issues

Oravel Stays (Oyo) Pre-IPO – Addendum Updates – Don’t Let the +ve EBITDA Mask Its Underlying Issues

By Clarence Chu

  • Oyo (1698548D IN) is looking to raise around US$700m in its upcoming India IPO. The IPO will consist of both a primary and secondary portion.
  • Oyo runs a digital platform that serves as a hotel and home aggregator between patrons, which include owners and lessors, and customers, such as travelers and guests booking for accommodation.
  • Since our last notes, Oravel Stays (Oyo) had filed its addendum, containing both its full-year performance for FY22, and its most recent 1Q23 performance (period ending Jun 2022).

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Daily Brief China: Leapmotor, Bilibili, Onewo, China Datang Corp Renewable Power, CNY, Joinn Laboratories (H), CIFI Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Leapmotor IPO – Weak Demand but Concentrated Allocation
  • Bilibili (9626 HK): Implications of Dual Primary Listing
  • Onewo Space-Tech IPO Trading – Weak but Relatively Better Demand
  • Leapmotor IPO: Trading Debut
  • Onewo IPO: Trading Debut
  • Leapmotor IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading
  • China Datang Renewable Power (1798): Ideal Name for ESG Fund.
  • Consequential Currency
  • Joinn Laboratories (6127.HK) 22H1 – It’s Time to Face Reality Before the Magic of Monkeys Disappears
  • Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, CIFI Holdings

Leapmotor IPO – Weak Demand but Concentrated Allocation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Leapmotor (9863 HK) raised around US$800m in its Hong Kong IPO. LM is a smart EV company based in China, founded in 2015.
  • As of end Jun 22, it had delivered a total of 104,829 cars with most of its sales coming from its mini units, T03.
  • In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

Bilibili (9626 HK): Implications of Dual Primary Listing

By Brian Freitas


Onewo Space-Tech IPO Trading – Weak but Relatively Better Demand

By Sumeet Singh

  • Onewo (2602 HK) (OST) raised around US$733m in its Hong Kong IPO. OST is a property management service provider primarily owned by China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK) . 
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, amongst the residential community service providers in China, OST ranked first. It also ranked first in the commercial space integrated services market in China.
  • In this note, we will talk about the demand for the deal and other trading dynamics.

Leapmotor IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • Leapmotor (9863 HK) priced its H Share at HK$48.00 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$6,057.4 million (US$772 million). The H Share will start trading tomorrow.
  • The H Shares of peers posted no first-day gains and are currently below the listing prices. Market sentiment on peers has remained weak since the release of the prospectus.
  • Leapmotor, at best, should trade in line with median peer multiples. Leapmotor is fairly valued at the IPO price. We continue to remain on the sidelines.

Onewo IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • Onewo (2602 HK) priced its H Share at HK$49.35 per share to raise net proceeds of HK$5.6 billion (US$713 million). The H Share will start trading tomorrow.
  • Notwithstanding the industry headwinds, the H Shares of peers with financially sound parentco backgrounds are trading above the listing prices.
  • Despite peer multiple derating, the IPO price remains attractive compared to peers with financially sound parentco backgrounds. 

Leapmotor IPO: Thoughts on First Day Trading

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Leapmotor (9863 HK) has priced its IPO at HK$48 per share, at the lower end of the indicative IPO price range of HK$48-62 per share. 
  • At the above price, the company raised net proceeds of approx. HK$6,057.4m at a market capitalisation of HK$54.9bn and a post-money EV of HK$45.9bn.
  • The HK offering was undersubscribed while the international offering was initially oversubscribed by 2.33x and the unsubscribed portion of the HK offering was later reallocated to international offering.

China Datang Renewable Power (1798): Ideal Name for ESG Fund.

By Henry Soediarko

  • Low valuation against peers in China albeit China Datang Corp Renewable Power (1798 HK) is one of the few pure-play wind farm operators in HK. 
  • Its free cash flow reached its highest in more than 10 years. 
  • The challenging equity market makes China Datang Renewable Power looks even more attractive.

Consequential Currency

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • I usually work with a base case view and not the most optimistic or pessimistic take, and this note is no different.
  • Its approach is forming an opinion on more probable in the next move and avoiding click baits 2-3 σ price targets.
  • I was expecting to do this note the following Monday as I thought with the NPC meeting and directive to state banks to act accordingly, any downward pressure on CNY would be avoided or measured.

Joinn Laboratories (6127.HK) 22H1 – It’s Time to Face Reality Before the Magic of Monkeys Disappears

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The monkeys have become Joinn Laboratories (H) (6127 HK)’s important profit growth point based on the logic chain of “monkey supply shortage – monkey price rise – Joinn’s performance increase”. 
  • Faced with doubts about the future prosperity of CXO, we don’t think Joinn is immune as a part of this industrial chain. Joinn is hard to achieve the V-shaped rebound.
  • Valuations are hard to increase by when the industry is very mature.For investment logic, my favorite is the industry beta, followed by industry beta+alpha. The last is low P/E ratio.

Morning Views Asia: AAC Technologies Holdings, CIFI Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: Eisai Co Ltd, Appier Group, Lawson Inc, Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Eisai Co (4523 JP): Positive Trial Result For Alzheimer’s Disease Drug- A Step Closer to Approval
  • Appier (4180) | Five Reasons to Remain Bullish
  • Lawson Confirms Seijo Ishii IPO
  • Criteria for TOPIX Components and Prime Market Listing Criteria Should Be Discussed Separately
  • Continuing Deflationary Cycle Will Not Raise Younger Generation’s Desire to Marry and Have Children

Eisai Co (4523 JP): Positive Trial Result For Alzheimer’s Disease Drug- A Step Closer to Approval

By Tina Banerjee

  • Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) has announced positive clinical trial results for its Alzheimer’s disease (AD) drug candidate, lecanemab. Lecanemab succeeded in slowing cognitive decline by 27%.
  • Importantly, the study shows that removal of aggregated amyloid beta in the brain is associated with a slowing of disease in patients, thereby opening innovation pathway for new treatment options.
  • Eisai aims to file for traditional approval in the U.S. and to submit marketing authorization applications in Japan and Europe by the end of FY23.

Appier (4180) | Five Reasons to Remain Bullish

By Mark Chadwick

  • Appier provides AI software that helps large enterprises to grow and monetize their customer base. 
  • Using Appier’s AI analysis tools, brands can automate the way they interact with shoppers and create new business models more efficiently
  • Business is booming, it is sheltered from macro headwinds and the TAM is expanding aggressively as Appier expands into key US/EMEA markets

Lawson Confirms Seijo Ishii IPO

By Michael Causton

  • Lawson Inc (2651 JP) has confirmed it will list its upscale supermarket subsidiary, Seijo Ishii early next year.
  • Seijo leads in premium supermarket retailing and is growing as fast as the wealth market does, with plenty of room left to expand.
  • Seijo Ishii is now building its own production and import capabilities to increase originality and could begin to challenge even some of their larger rivals.

Criteria for TOPIX Components and Prime Market Listing Criteria Should Be Discussed Separately

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The ongoing panel discussions also call for increasing TOPIX liquidity as a market need. However, TSE seems to think that it has completed the TOPIX reform for the time being.
  • TSE appears to be insisting that the criteria for TOPIX stock selection be consistent with the prime market listing criteria of 10 billion Yen in tradable market capitalization.
  • On the periodic replacement of TOPIX components, TSE isn’t looking at the urgent need of improving liquidity as issue to be addressed after the completion of the staged-weighting-reduction (February 2025).

Continuing Deflationary Cycle Will Not Raise Younger Generation’s Desire to Marry and Have Children

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Even couples who have decided to get married are squeezing wedding expenses, indicating that financial reasons are overshadowing the factors that keep young people from getting married.
  • Real wages have continued to decline over the past 25 years, and real income per household is known to be lower in 2018 than it was in 1980.
  • The deflationary cycle that has carried out by procuring cheap labor from overseas under the guise of technical intern trainees and women as non-regular workers doesn’t seem to be sustainable.

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