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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Equity Bottom-Up: Del Monte Pacific, Coinbase, Yamazaki Baking, BeiGene Ltd, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, SITC International, Posco International Corporation, The Walt Disney Co, Elastic NV, JCET Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Del Monte: Transformation of a Heritage Food Company
  • Coinbase: Q4 Results KPI Deck
  • Yamazaki Baking: As Margins Double, 100% Upside Is Possible
  • BeiGene Ltd (6160.HK/688235.CH) – There Is No Way to Retreat
  • Out Bullish Outlook on Melco’s Manila City of Dreams Supported by 2021 Gains
  • SITC International (1308 HK): All Priced In
  • Buffett’s Stakes in Japanese Trading Firms & A Review of Korean Trading Firms Amid War in Ukraine
  • Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place
  • Q3 FY’22 Earnings Review: Spectacular Revenue Growth Driven By The Cloud Business
  • JCET (600584.CN): The 1Q22 Will Be a Lower Season, and the Recent Ukraine Crisis Did Post a Shadow.

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Del Monte: Transformation of a Heritage Food Company

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP) Chief Corporate Officer Ignacio (Iggy) Sison and Investor Relations Manager Jennifer Luy.

In the upcoming webinar, Jennifer and Iggy will share a short company presentation, after which they will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Nicolas Van Broekhoven. A live Q&A session will follow.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 15 March 2022, 17:00 SGT.

Dual-listed on the SGX and the Philippine Stock Exchange, Del Monte Pacific Limited is a global branded F&B company that offers premium quality, healthy products. These include packaged fruit, vegetable and tomato, sauces, condiments, pasta, broth, stock, juices, and frozen pineapple under various brands – it also sells fresh pineapples under the S&W brand.

It is proud of its heritage brands – Del Monte, S&W, Contadina, and College Inn – some of which originated in the USA more than 100 years ago. The Group has exclusive rights to use the Del Monte trademarks for packaged products in the United States, South America, the Philippines, Indian subcontinent, and Myanmar, while it owns S&W globally except for Australia and New Zealand. The Group owns the Contadina and College Inn trademarks in various countries.

Corporate Webinars by Smartkarma Corporate Solutions feature discussions with IROs and Executives, discussing their companies, the challenges they face, and the opportunities in their sectors and markets.


Coinbase: Q4 Results KPI Deck

By Alec Tseung

  • Coinbase reported strong Q4 results mainly driven by a significant increase in its transaction revenue.
  • Bearish outlook in Q1’22 and FY22 due to the higher expense guidance from the management and declining crypto asset price and volatility in Q1.
  • Albeit the bearish outlook, we continue to view that Coinbase represents one of the best ways for public equity investors to gain exposure to the growing crypto economy. 

Yamazaki Baking: As Margins Double, 100% Upside Is Possible

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Yamazaki Baking (2212 JP) raised prices in January 2022 due to rising oil prices. We are expecting another price hike very soon to reflect the 60% increase in wheat prices.
  • These price hikes may not increase Yamazaki Baking’s 2022 OP margin significantly above the guided level.
  • However, once input prices normalise following the Russia Ukraine war, we could see Yamazaki Baking’s OP margin reaching 4.0% in the medium term.

BeiGene Ltd (6160.HK/688235.CH) – There Is No Way to Retreat

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • After raising over RMB70 billion,investors have much higher expectation on BeiGene than other biotech/biopharma, because BeiGene is “different”,but the real pressure will come over the next two or three years.
  • Will BeiGene become China’s first truly international pharmaceutical company, or be dragged into mediocrity by the failure of key trials or the failure of commercialization to meet the market’s expectations?
  • It is attractive if the market value is below US$20 billion. However, considering the Russia-Ukraine war and other potential external uncertainties, we advise investors to keep alert.

Out Bullish Outlook on Melco’s Manila City of Dreams Supported by 2021 Gains

By Howard J Klein

  • We have guided bullish on Melco Resorts & Entertainment as an early bet on the improving conditions for its Philippines Entertainment Zone property and other group catalysts.
  • GGR in Entertainment City Zone rose 20% in 2021 to US$1.35b–pandemic easing.
  • Total industry Philippine GGR  for 2021 was up 14.5%  to $2.2b despite a decline in government run Pagcor casinos which had more widespread lockdowns.

SITC International (1308 HK): All Priced In

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • SITC International (1308 HK) achieved a record net profit which surged 2.3x in FY21, but our concern is that much of news has been well in the share price.
  • While management is optimistic on its outlook, we think challenges are higher costs (port, bunker and charterhire) and little room for further significant freight rate increase. 
  • Its 6.7x P/B for FY22F has well reflected its quality but with ROE likely to dip back in FY22 and FY23, we think upside does not look impressive.

Buffett’s Stakes in Japanese Trading Firms & A Review of Korean Trading Firms Amid War in Ukraine

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we review Warren Buffett’s stakes in Japanese trading  companies and review investment opportunities in Korean trading companies amid a war between Russia and Ukraine. 
  • The recent war between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in higher commodities prices. This has boosted the share prices of commodities related companies globally, including Japanese and Korean trading companies.
  • We would focus on GS Global Corp, Hanwha Corporation, Posco International Corporation, and LX International as Korean trading companies that could continue to outperform the market amid war in Ukraine. 

Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

By Aaron Gabin

  • Disney announced a new ad-based tier for Disney+ last week.
  • The decision to go this direction may imply market saturation, rising competitive intensity, or an inability to hit its subscriber targets organically.
  • Disney’s streaming business is increasingly dominated by low value Hotstar+ subs

Q3 FY’22 Earnings Review: Spectacular Revenue Growth Driven By The Cloud Business

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Elastic NV (ESTC US) , a leading search technology company, reported strong Q3 FY’22 results that topped estimates. Cloud revenue surged 79% year-over-year, and free cash flow was ~$3M. 
  • Elastic NV (ESTC US)  shares underperformed in CY’22, with shares down ~37% YTD versus a ~29% loss on the WCLD – WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund. 
  • Shares of Elastic jumped to ~$87.00/share after the company reported third-quarter earnings the previous week, but then the stock erased early gains due to broader sell-off in tech shares. 

JCET (600584.CN): The 1Q22 Will Be a Lower Season, and the Recent Ukraine Crisis Did Post a Shadow.

By Patrick Liao

  • The 1st quarter is relatively a lower season. Therefore, we expect that the revenue/NM is about RMB$8. 7bn/9.0% in 1Q22 respectively, which declines ~10% QoQ and grow 30% YoY. 
  • To our understanding, QCOM is still the biggest client in JCET. The rest of clients have changing a bit in JCET since Huawei was being driven out.
  • Overall speaking, China is devoted in developing OSAT (Outsource Semiconductor Assembly and Packaging) business, and the gap shall be close to ASEH and Amkor. 

Related tickers: Del Monte Pacific (DMPL.SI), Yamazaki Baking (2212.T), BeiGene Ltd (6160.HK), Melco Resorts & Entertainment (MLCO.O), SITC International (1308.HK), Posco International Corporation (047050.KS), The Walt Disney Co (DIS.N), JCET Group (600584.SS)

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Event-Driven: Core Lithium Ltd, Tata Consultancy Svcs, Softbank Group, Hanjin KAL Corp, Bank of Kyoto, Beijing Enterprises Clean Energy Grp, Tata Motors Ltd, SK Innovation, IMMOFINANZ AG and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Global Rare Earth/​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Adds; Two Close
  • Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN): US$2.4bn Mega Buyback – Letter of Offer Out; TCS Cheap Vs Peers
  • TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade – Updates Factoring in Ukraine
  • TIGER WISE Tour Leisure ETF Rebalancing Preview
  • Bank of Kyoto (8369) – A Complicated Risk Model Clarified
  • BE Clean Energy Back in the Cross Hairs of China Shandong Hi-Speed Financial Group?
  • SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview (June): Down to the Wire
  • Preemptive/Appraisal Rights to Parent Company Shareholders in ECO Listing in Korea
  • CPI/Immofinanz: Additional Acceptance Period, S Immo

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Two Potential Adds; Two Close

By Brian Freitas


Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN): US$2.4bn Mega Buyback – Letter of Offer Out; TCS Cheap Vs Peers

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In early February 2022, Indian IT giant Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) officially announced a INR180bn (~US$2.4bn) Buyback which is one of the largest in Indian stock market history.
  • Today the company published the Letter of Offer confirming the final details and the expected timeline for this Buyback.
  • Below is a closer look at these details and their implications for shareholders.

TOPIX-Nikkei Skew Trade – Updates Factoring in Ukraine

By Mio Kato

  • The Nikkei is now down 9.57% vs. when we first recommended our skew trade (now up 0.40%). 
  • Despite some frustrating idiosyncratic moves which have prevented the skew trade from outperforming more it has mostly held up. 
  • Looking forward, we believe it is worthwhile assessing upside and downside macro risks for the components of the trade.

TIGER WISE Tour Leisure ETF Rebalancing Preview

By Sanghyun Park

  • The TIGER Tour Leisure ETF shows the fastest AUM growth among the local themed ETFs in Korea. It seems clear that this is due to the reopening expectations.
  • The absolute size of AUM seems small. But the number of components is only 19, and most of them are small caps. So the actual passive impact is not small.
  • Another noteworthy aspect is that the rebalancing is pretty straightforward. It primarily relies on the float-adjusted market caps. So, the rebalancing estimation visibility is relatively high.

Bank of Kyoto (8369) – A Complicated Risk Model Clarified

By Travis Lundy

  • Last May I proposed a model for thinking about the appropriate discount of Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) vs its giant equity portfolio and small operations. It was a sell.
  • In December, the bank changed its shareholder return ratio, which indicated less value destruction, and tighter appropriate discount. The shares rallied and discount narrowed. 
  • Now the Shares Adjusted for Banking Ops Valuation have seen the discount to After-Tax Equity Portfolio Valuation widen sharply in the past 10 days. So here’s the hedging model.

BE Clean Energy Back in the Cross Hairs of China Shandong Hi-Speed Financial Group?

By Arun George


SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview (June): Down to the Wire

By Brian Freitas


Preemptive/Appraisal Rights to Parent Company Shareholders in ECO Listing in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • The KFSC officially unveiled revisions to the guidelines on corporate governance disclosure. The key to these revisions is to regulate the equity carve-out (ECO).
  • These protection measures may include granting PREEMPTIVE or/and APPRAISAL rights to the parent company shareholders in a post-ECO listing.
  • There will be high potential for short-term momentum for POSCO, which has already decided ECO, and SK Innovation (SK On), whose post-ECO listing is practically a foregone conclusion.

CPI/Immofinanz: Additional Acceptance Period, S Immo

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • CPI has revealed a 55.07% stake in Immofinanz. The additional acceptance period will end on 28 May. CPI will likely continue purchasing shares in the market.
  • CPI now also controls 42.55% of S Immo. A combined CPI/Immofinanz/S Immo would have €24bn assets. Scale and sound capital management may bring handsome profits in the longer term.
  • Immofinanz’s shares offer 5.1% 23e FFO yield. Gross spread to offer price is 0.6%. The convertible spread is c.2%. My TP is €25.86/share, 12.2% discount to EPRA NTA. Long IIA VA

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Consumer: Del Monte Pacific, Yamazaki Baking, Tata Motors Ltd, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, The Walt Disney Co, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, Torikizoku and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Del Monte: Transformation of a Heritage Food Company
  • Yamazaki Baking: As Margins Double, 100% Upside Is Possible
  • SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview (June): Down to the Wire
  • Out Bullish Outlook on Melco’s Manila City of Dreams Supported by 2021 Gains
  • Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place
  • Japfa Comfeed – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Torikizoku Holdings (3193): February Sales Affected by Omicron

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Del Monte: Transformation of a Heritage Food Company

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP) Chief Corporate Officer Ignacio (Iggy) Sison and Investor Relations Manager Jennifer Luy.

In the upcoming webinar, Jennifer and Iggy will share a short company presentation, after which they will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Nicolas Van Broekhoven. A live Q&A session will follow.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 15 March 2022, 17:00 SGT.

Dual-listed on the SGX and the Philippine Stock Exchange, Del Monte Pacific Limited is a global branded F&B company that offers premium quality, healthy products. These include packaged fruit, vegetable and tomato, sauces, condiments, pasta, broth, stock, juices, and frozen pineapple under various brands – it also sells fresh pineapples under the S&W brand.

It is proud of its heritage brands – Del Monte, S&W, Contadina, and College Inn – some of which originated in the USA more than 100 years ago. The Group has exclusive rights to use the Del Monte trademarks for packaged products in the United States, South America, the Philippines, Indian subcontinent, and Myanmar, while it owns S&W globally except for Australia and New Zealand. The Group owns the Contadina and College Inn trademarks in various countries.

Corporate Webinars by Smartkarma Corporate Solutions feature discussions with IROs and Executives, discussing their companies, the challenges they face, and the opportunities in their sectors and markets.


Yamazaki Baking: As Margins Double, 100% Upside Is Possible

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Yamazaki Baking (2212 JP) raised prices in January 2022 due to rising oil prices. We are expecting another price hike very soon to reflect the 60% increase in wheat prices.
  • These price hikes may not increase Yamazaki Baking’s 2022 OP margin significantly above the guided level.
  • However, once input prices normalise following the Russia Ukraine war, we could see Yamazaki Baking’s OP margin reaching 4.0% in the medium term.

SENSEX Index Rebalance Preview (June): Down to the Wire

By Brian Freitas


Out Bullish Outlook on Melco’s Manila City of Dreams Supported by 2021 Gains

By Howard J Klein

  • We have guided bullish on Melco Resorts & Entertainment as an early bet on the improving conditions for its Philippines Entertainment Zone property and other group catalysts.
  • GGR in Entertainment City Zone rose 20% in 2021 to US$1.35b–pandemic easing.
  • Total industry Philippine GGR  for 2021 was up 14.5%  to $2.2b despite a decline in government run Pagcor casinos which had more widespread lockdowns.

Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

By Aaron Gabin

  • Disney announced a new ad-based tier for Disney+ last week.
  • The decision to go this direction may imply market saturation, rising competitive intensity, or an inability to hit its subscriber targets organically.
  • Disney’s streaming business is increasingly dominated by low value Hotstar+ subs

Japfa Comfeed – Earnings Flash – FY 2021 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

Japfa Comfeed’s FY 2021 results were better than we had expected, with a strong rebound in Q4 (after COVID-19 lockdowns). The financial risk profile remains stable. That said, cash flows, which can be volatile, were weak. Liquidity has deteriorated, due to a surge in short-term debt to plug the substantial negative FCF.


Torikizoku Holdings (3193): February Sales Affected by Omicron

By Mita Securities

  • February SSS 112.8% vs. 2021, 39.1% vs. 2019 (pre-pandemic)

  • The number of stores at the end of February was 615 (unchanged MoM). The number of directly owned stores was 384 (unchanged MoM).

  • Second Toriki Burger store to open in Shibuya on March 10


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Singapore: Del Monte Pacific and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Del Monte: Transformation of a Heritage Food Company

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Del Monte: Transformation of a Heritage Food Company

By Smartkarma Research

For our next Corporate Webinar we are glad to welcome Del Monte Pacific (DELM SP) Chief Corporate Officer Ignacio (Iggy) Sison and Investor Relations Manager Jennifer Luy.

In the upcoming webinar, Jennifer and Iggy will share a short company presentation, after which they will engage in a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider, Nicolas Van Broekhoven. A live Q&A session will follow.

The Corporate Webinar will be hosted on Tuesday, 15 March 2022, 17:00 SGT.

Dual-listed on the SGX and the Philippine Stock Exchange, Del Monte Pacific Limited is a global branded F&B company that offers premium quality, healthy products. These include packaged fruit, vegetable and tomato, sauces, condiments, pasta, broth, stock, juices, and frozen pineapple under various brands – it also sells fresh pineapples under the S&W brand.

It is proud of its heritage brands – Del Monte, S&W, Contadina, and College Inn – some of which originated in the USA more than 100 years ago. The Group has exclusive rights to use the Del Monte trademarks for packaged products in the United States, South America, the Philippines, Indian subcontinent, and Myanmar, while it owns S&W globally except for Australia and New Zealand. The Group owns the Contadina and College Inn trademarks in various countries.

Corporate Webinars by Smartkarma Corporate Solutions feature discussions with IROs and Executives, discussing their companies, the challenges they face, and the opportunities in their sectors and markets.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

TMT: Tata Consultancy Svcs, Coinbase, Elastic NV, JCET Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN): US$2.4bn Mega Buyback – Letter of Offer Out; TCS Cheap Vs Peers
  • Coinbase: Q4 Results KPI Deck
  • Q3 FY’22 Earnings Review: Spectacular Revenue Growth Driven By The Cloud Business
  • JCET (600584.CN): The 1Q22 Will Be a Lower Season, and the Recent Ukraine Crisis Did Post a Shadow.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS IN): US$2.4bn Mega Buyback – Letter of Offer Out; TCS Cheap Vs Peers

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In early February 2022, Indian IT giant Tata Consultancy Svcs (TCS IN) officially announced a INR180bn (~US$2.4bn) Buyback which is one of the largest in Indian stock market history.
  • Today the company published the Letter of Offer confirming the final details and the expected timeline for this Buyback.
  • Below is a closer look at these details and their implications for shareholders.

Coinbase: Q4 Results KPI Deck

By Alec Tseung

  • Coinbase reported strong Q4 results mainly driven by a significant increase in its transaction revenue.
  • Bearish outlook in Q1’22 and FY22 due to the higher expense guidance from the management and declining crypto asset price and volatility in Q1.
  • Albeit the bearish outlook, we continue to view that Coinbase represents one of the best ways for public equity investors to gain exposure to the growing crypto economy. 

Q3 FY’22 Earnings Review: Spectacular Revenue Growth Driven By The Cloud Business

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Elastic NV (ESTC US) , a leading search technology company, reported strong Q3 FY’22 results that topped estimates. Cloud revenue surged 79% year-over-year, and free cash flow was ~$3M. 
  • Elastic NV (ESTC US)  shares underperformed in CY’22, with shares down ~37% YTD versus a ~29% loss on the WCLD – WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund. 
  • Shares of Elastic jumped to ~$87.00/share after the company reported third-quarter earnings the previous week, but then the stock erased early gains due to broader sell-off in tech shares. 

JCET (600584.CN): The 1Q22 Will Be a Lower Season, and the Recent Ukraine Crisis Did Post a Shadow.

By Patrick Liao

  • The 1st quarter is relatively a lower season. Therefore, we expect that the revenue/NM is about RMB$8. 7bn/9.0% in 1Q22 respectively, which declines ~10% QoQ and grow 30% YoY. 
  • To our understanding, QCOM is still the biggest client in JCET. The rest of clients have changing a bit in JCET since Huawei was being driven out.
  • Overall speaking, China is devoted in developing OSAT (Outsource Semiconductor Assembly and Packaging) business, and the gap shall be close to ASEH and Amkor. 

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

South Korea: Hanjin KAL Corp, Posco International Corporation, SK Innovation and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • TIGER WISE Tour Leisure ETF Rebalancing Preview
  • Buffett’s Stakes in Japanese Trading Firms & A Review of Korean Trading Firms Amid War in Ukraine
  • Preemptive/Appraisal Rights to Parent Company Shareholders in ECO Listing in Korea

TIGER WISE Tour Leisure ETF Rebalancing Preview

By Sanghyun Park

  • The TIGER Tour Leisure ETF shows the fastest AUM growth among the local themed ETFs in Korea. It seems clear that this is due to the reopening expectations.
  • The absolute size of AUM seems small. But the number of components is only 19, and most of them are small caps. So the actual passive impact is not small.
  • Another noteworthy aspect is that the rebalancing is pretty straightforward. It primarily relies on the float-adjusted market caps. So, the rebalancing estimation visibility is relatively high.

Buffett’s Stakes in Japanese Trading Firms & A Review of Korean Trading Firms Amid War in Ukraine

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we review Warren Buffett’s stakes in Japanese trading  companies and review investment opportunities in Korean trading companies amid a war between Russia and Ukraine. 
  • The recent war between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in higher commodities prices. This has boosted the share prices of commodities related companies globally, including Japanese and Korean trading companies.
  • We would focus on GS Global Corp, Hanwha Corporation, Posco International Corporation, and LX International as Korean trading companies that could continue to outperform the market amid war in Ukraine. 

Preemptive/Appraisal Rights to Parent Company Shareholders in ECO Listing in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • The KFSC officially unveiled revisions to the guidelines on corporate governance disclosure. The key to these revisions is to regulate the equity carve-out (ECO).
  • These protection measures may include granting PREEMPTIVE or/and APPRAISAL rights to the parent company shareholders in a post-ECO listing.
  • There will be high potential for short-term momentum for POSCO, which has already decided ECO, and SK Innovation (SK On), whose post-ECO listing is practically a foregone conclusion.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

China: Beijing Enterprises Clean Energy Grp, BeiGene Ltd, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, SITC International, JCET Group, Agile Property Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • BE Clean Energy Back in the Cross Hairs of China Shandong Hi-Speed Financial Group?
  • BeiGene Ltd (6160.HK/688235.CH) – There Is No Way to Retreat
  • Out Bullish Outlook on Melco’s Manila City of Dreams Supported by 2021 Gains
  • SITC International (1308 HK): All Priced In
  • JCET (600584.CN): The 1Q22 Will Be a Lower Season, and the Recent Ukraine Crisis Did Post a Shadow.
  • Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Hopson Development, Sino-Ocean Service, Yuzhou Group

BE Clean Energy Back in the Cross Hairs of China Shandong Hi-Speed Financial Group?

By Arun George


BeiGene Ltd (6160.HK/688235.CH) – There Is No Way to Retreat

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • After raising over RMB70 billion,investors have much higher expectation on BeiGene than other biotech/biopharma, because BeiGene is “different”,but the real pressure will come over the next two or three years.
  • Will BeiGene become China’s first truly international pharmaceutical company, or be dragged into mediocrity by the failure of key trials or the failure of commercialization to meet the market’s expectations?
  • It is attractive if the market value is below US$20 billion. However, considering the Russia-Ukraine war and other potential external uncertainties, we advise investors to keep alert.

Out Bullish Outlook on Melco’s Manila City of Dreams Supported by 2021 Gains

By Howard J Klein

  • We have guided bullish on Melco Resorts & Entertainment as an early bet on the improving conditions for its Philippines Entertainment Zone property and other group catalysts.
  • GGR in Entertainment City Zone rose 20% in 2021 to US$1.35b–pandemic easing.
  • Total industry Philippine GGR  for 2021 was up 14.5%  to $2.2b despite a decline in government run Pagcor casinos which had more widespread lockdowns.

SITC International (1308 HK): All Priced In

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • SITC International (1308 HK) achieved a record net profit which surged 2.3x in FY21, but our concern is that much of news has been well in the share price.
  • While management is optimistic on its outlook, we think challenges are higher costs (port, bunker and charterhire) and little room for further significant freight rate increase. 
  • Its 6.7x P/B for FY22F has well reflected its quality but with ROE likely to dip back in FY22 and FY23, we think upside does not look impressive.

JCET (600584.CN): The 1Q22 Will Be a Lower Season, and the Recent Ukraine Crisis Did Post a Shadow.

By Patrick Liao

  • The 1st quarter is relatively a lower season. Therefore, we expect that the revenue/NM is about RMB$8. 7bn/9.0% in 1Q22 respectively, which declines ~10% QoQ and grow 30% YoY. 
  • To our understanding, QCOM is still the biggest client in JCET. The rest of clients have changing a bit in JCET since Huawei was being driven out.
  • Overall speaking, China is devoted in developing OSAT (Outsource Semiconductor Assembly and Packaging) business, and the gap shall be close to ASEH and Amkor. 

Morning Views Asia: Central China Securities, Hopson Development, Sino-Ocean Service, Yuzhou Group

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Financials: Bank of Kyoto, Spring Valley Acquisition Corp, Fantom, Vietnam Prosperity Jsc Bank, Bank Of Baroda and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Bank of Kyoto (8369) – A Complicated Risk Model Clarified
  • NuScale Could Thrive in a Post-Russia World
  • Getting Started With Fantom
  • Vietnam Prosperity JSCB (VPB VN/BUY)
  • Pick of the Week – Bank of Baroda

Bank of Kyoto (8369) – A Complicated Risk Model Clarified

By Travis Lundy

  • Last May I proposed a model for thinking about the appropriate discount of Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) vs its giant equity portfolio and small operations. It was a sell.
  • In December, the bank changed its shareholder return ratio, which indicated less value destruction, and tighter appropriate discount. The shares rallied and discount narrowed. 
  • Now the Shares Adjusted for Banking Ops Valuation have seen the discount to After-Tax Equity Portfolio Valuation widen sharply in the past 10 days. So here’s the hedging model.

NuScale Could Thrive in a Post-Russia World

By subSPAC

  • Europe was coping with a major energy crisis Prior to Russia’s Invasion of decided Ukraine, that resulted in prices skyrocketing to more than four times what they were at the inception of the pandemic.
  • NuScale’s solutions overcome many of the pitfalls that traditionally plague Nuclear Energy, from relevance to cost & safety
  • NuScale’s SPAC deal is a bet on the future of mass adoption of SMRs over the next decade.

Getting Started With Fantom

By Etherbridge

  • This week we will cover Fantom, a layer 1 network that has taken an interesting approach to solve the blockchain trilemma.
  • Fantom is a layer 1 smart contract platform that is very similar to Ethereum in that it can power a wide variety of applications
  • It has a different design to that of Ethereum and is powered by a framework called Lachesis

Vietnam Prosperity JSCB (VPB VN/BUY)

By Mirae Asset Securities

[Vietnam] Banking March 07, 2022 (Upgrade) Upside: +20.2%

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pick of the Week – Bank of Baroda

By Edelweiss

  • Established in 1908 by Maharaja Sayajirao Gaekwad of Baroda, BoB was one of the 14 banks that were nationalised in 1969
  • The bank has merged with Dena and Vijaya Bank and is now the second largest PSU bank in the country
  • It has been one of the early players to have identified the potential and importance of international presence
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

United States: Gold, Coinbase, Spring Valley Acquisition Corp, Elastic NV, The Walt Disney Co, Fantom and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Gold Highs in Sight
  • Coinbase: Q4 Results KPI Deck
  • NuScale Could Thrive in a Post-Russia World
  • Q3 FY’22 Earnings Review: Spectacular Revenue Growth Driven By The Cloud Business
  • Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place
  • Getting Started With Fantom

Gold Highs in Sight

By Shyam Devani

  • Gold measured in equally weighted terms against the worlds largest currencies is approaching the all time high
  • There seems is not sufficient policy tools in this environment to tackle inflation
  • Further gains in Gold, Silver & Platinum are should be seen

Coinbase: Q4 Results KPI Deck

By Alec Tseung

  • Coinbase reported strong Q4 results mainly driven by a significant increase in its transaction revenue.
  • Bearish outlook in Q1’22 and FY22 due to the higher expense guidance from the management and declining crypto asset price and volatility in Q1.
  • Albeit the bearish outlook, we continue to view that Coinbase represents one of the best ways for public equity investors to gain exposure to the growing crypto economy. 

NuScale Could Thrive in a Post-Russia World

By subSPAC

  • Europe was coping with a major energy crisis Prior to Russia’s Invasion of decided Ukraine, that resulted in prices skyrocketing to more than four times what they were at the inception of the pandemic.
  • NuScale’s solutions overcome many of the pitfalls that traditionally plague Nuclear Energy, from relevance to cost & safety
  • NuScale’s SPAC deal is a bet on the future of mass adoption of SMRs over the next decade.

Q3 FY’22 Earnings Review: Spectacular Revenue Growth Driven By The Cloud Business

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Elastic NV (ESTC US) , a leading search technology company, reported strong Q3 FY’22 results that topped estimates. Cloud revenue surged 79% year-over-year, and free cash flow was ~$3M. 
  • Elastic NV (ESTC US)  shares underperformed in CY’22, with shares down ~37% YTD versus a ~29% loss on the WCLD – WisdomTree Cloud Computing Fund. 
  • Shares of Elastic jumped to ~$87.00/share after the company reported third-quarter earnings the previous week, but then the stock erased early gains due to broader sell-off in tech shares. 

Disney: Streaming Trapped Between a Rock and Hard Place

By Aaron Gabin

  • Disney announced a new ad-based tier for Disney+ last week.
  • The decision to go this direction may imply market saturation, rising competitive intensity, or an inability to hit its subscriber targets organically.
  • Disney’s streaming business is increasingly dominated by low value Hotstar+ subs

Getting Started With Fantom

By Etherbridge

  • This week we will cover Fantom, a layer 1 network that has taken an interesting approach to solve the blockchain trilemma.
  • Fantom is a layer 1 smart contract platform that is very similar to Ethereum in that it can power a wide variety of applications
  • It has a different design to that of Ethereum and is powered by a framework called Lachesis

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Macro: War + inflation can lead to stagflation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • War + inflation can lead to stagflation
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN @Smartkarma – Rough for Sea Ltd, Grab’s Tumble, and Farm Fresh IPO
  • FSC and KRX Jointly Announce Revisions to Spinoffs and Double Listings in Korea
  • Heightened Uncertainty Around The World – Mar 2022
  • The Philippines: Pessimism Over The Economy Is Overdone

War + inflation can lead to stagflation

By Market Radar

  • The last ten days have been critical and even distressing. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a terrible event. This event is heartbreaking from a human point of view, and it had heavy consequences on markets too.
  • The fear led investors to put money on the most classical safe havens, like Gold, Treasury, Bund, Dollar and Yen
  • On the other side, equities have been severely hit, especially in Europe.

The Week That Was in ASEAN @Smartkarma – Rough for Sea Ltd, Grab’s Tumble, and Farm Fresh IPO

By Angus Mackintosh


FSC and KRX Jointly Announce Revisions to Spinoffs and Double Listings in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • On 6 March, the Financial Services Commission (FSC) and the Korea Exchange (KRX) jointly announced revisions and guidelines to spin-offs and double listings in Korea.
  • The new guidelines of the FSC and KRX regarding the spin-offs/double listings is positive and a step in the right direction to improve the corporate governance of companies in Korea.
  • On the other hand, one of the consequences of these changes could be that the parent companies may take more time to complete IPOs of their promising affiliates.

Heightened Uncertainty Around The World – Mar 2022

By Cappuccino Finance

  • It’s been a crazy past two years. Pandemic, world-wide lockdown, toilet paper shortage, people turning vaccines into a political matter, and etc
  • Now, Russia’s invasion added a whole new level of uncertainty on top of an already unstable world.
  • Oil price has been shooting up ever since rumors started about the invasion, and since the war broke out, it is literally skyrocketing.

The Philippines: Pessimism Over The Economy Is Overdone

By Nicholas Chia

  • As the Covid-19 situation improves, Metro Manila and 38 other areas have progressed to the lowest level of the national alert system. Businesses can now operate at full capacity.
  • The release of pent-up demand bodes well for the economy, at least for 1H22, evinced by the acceleration in credit growth, and the normalisation in credit card loans.
  • A mix of short-term and secular trends will support the economy further. Higher deployment caps for OFW nurses, the relaxation of border controls, and election-related spending will boost growth.

Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma