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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Sep 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: US Fresh Sell Levels and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • US Fresh Sell Levels
  • Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

US Fresh Sell Levels

By Thomas Schroeder

  • US bounce in line off of SPX 3,900 support. Index trendline resistances will offer fresh sell points with NDX our top short pick in the US.
  • RTY was our long pick off of 1,775 support, to trade a bounce toward trendline and will then turn bearish again.
  • NDX 12,500 zone the fresh short area. DAX and weaker Asia still a high conviction short group.

Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

By Joe Jasper

  • We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.
  • This includes the S&P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) — add exposure.
  • While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.

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Sep 10
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Renova and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Renova, Mitsubishi Motors, Mercari

Japan Weekly | Renova, Mitsubishi Motors, Mercari

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nikkei was up +2.15% over the past week (-2% YTD): the yen was 1.2% weaker at ¥142/$
  • The news was focused on the sharp drop in the yen with even the BoJ Governor Kuroda noting some undesirable effects
  • The proportion of female directors rose to 9%, a slight increase over 7.4% in the previous year

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Sep 10
0

Daily Brief Credit: Chinese Property Weekly – 9 September 2022 – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Chinese Property Weekly – 9 September 2022 – Lucror Analytics

Chinese Property Weekly – 9 September 2022 – Lucror Analytics

By Charles Macgregor

The Chinese Property Weekly focuses on providing updates in the Chinese real-estate sector, including recent regulatory and company developments, top and bottom performers, rating actions, as well as a list of bond maturities in the next 30 days.

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Sep 10
0

Daily Brief Macro: CX Daily: How China Is Trying To Get Debt Dodgers To Pay Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • CX Daily: How China Is Trying To Get Debt Dodgers To Pay Up

CX Daily: How China Is Trying To Get Debt Dodgers To Pay Up

By Caixin Global

  • In Depth: How China is trying to get debt dodgers to pay up

  • Record numbers apply for China’s teachers exam amid bleak job market

  • Trending in China: Good samaritans ‘coldly’ told to self-isolate after helping with overturned ambulance

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Sep 10
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Bilibili: Profitability Sinks and Top Line Growth to Further Drop with Cost Controls and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Bilibili: Profitability Sinks and Top Line Growth to Further Drop with Cost Controls
  • Fushan Energy: Back to Interesting Levels
  • Lupin Ltd (LPC IN): Muted Q1FY23 Results as The US Sales Dipped Significantly
  • Indonesian Banks 2Q22 Screener; Stick with Bank Mandiri, and Negara Is Our Value Pick
  • GTX: Turbocharged Free Cash Flow

Bilibili: Profitability Sinks and Top Line Growth to Further Drop with Cost Controls

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Bilibili reported 2Q2022 results yesterday. Revenue grew 9.2% YoY to RMB4.91bn (in-line with consensus), however, it declined 2.9% YoY sequentially driven by YoY decrease in revenue from mobile games.
  • Operating losses for the quarter further widened to RMB2.2bn (vs consensus RMB2.1bn) which accounted for 44.6% of revenues compared to 33.8% in the same period a year ago.
  • Bilibili Inc (BILI US)  has taken several measure to improve its deteriorating profitability including headcount reduction, S&M cost cuts and close down of unprofitable businesses.

Fushan Energy: Back to Interesting Levels

By Sameer Taneja

  • Shougang Fushan Resources (639 HK) is back to interesting levels after a correction in HK/China and now trades at 4.5x PE/1.3x EV-EBITDA FY22e and a dividend yield of 17%. 
  • With >50% of the market capitalization in cash (accounting for the dividend liability), there is an excellent margin of safety in the name.
  • A further correction of coking coal prices by 20% from these levels to 1700-1800 RMB/ton would still have the stock trading at a >10% dividend yield. 

Lupin Ltd (LPC IN): Muted Q1FY23 Results as The US Sales Dipped Significantly

By Tina Banerjee

  • Lupin Ltd (LPC IN) reported muted Q1FY23 performance, with revenue declining 15% y/y and 7% q/q to INR36 billion. Revenue from North America is down 24% y/y and 29% q/q.
  • Price erosion in the U.S. coupled with shelf stock adjustment on the higher trade inventory are creating a dent to the quarterly numbers.
  • We would like to see a sustainable revival in the company’s North America revenue performance and margin improvement, before taking any position in the stock.

Indonesian Banks 2Q22 Screener; Stick with Bank Mandiri, and Negara Is Our Value Pick

By Victor Galliano

  • In 2Q22, the six Indonesian banks retain their strong capital adequacy ratios, healthy credit quality and good NPL coverage; yet we see select credit quality headwinds, especially in MSME credit
  • We maintain our positive view on Bank Mandiri, with its attractive pre-provision profitability and healthy cost of risk, whilst trading on attractive multiples; we prefer Bank Negara to Bank Rakyat
  • We await stronger signals from Bank Permata for its “turn around” potential, especially if management can improve credit quality, and keep lowering its cost of risk to boost returns

GTX: Turbocharged Free Cash Flow

By Hamed Khorsand

  • Garrett Motion (GTX) has elected to pay its quarterly dividend on its Series A Preferred shares in cash in lieu of stock.
  • We believe this is a signal to investors on how the business has performed in the Q3 after GTX affirmed its full year adjusted free cash flow guidance in August
  • The use of cash removes the compounding effect through issuing more shares, which would nullify the share buyback program GTX has in place

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Sep 10
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Tyro Payments Rejects Potentia’s Proposal. MCB Accepts and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Tyro Payments Rejects Potentia’s Proposal. MCB Accepts
  • Poongsan Corp: Spin-Off of Defense Business Is Negative for Existing Minority Shareholders

Tyro Payments Rejects Potentia’s Proposal. MCB Accepts

By David Blennerhassett

  • Tyro Payments (TYR AU) has rejected a proposal from a Potentia-led consortium at A$1.27/share, by way of a Scheme. 
  • Mike Cannon-Brookes’ Grok Ventures, holding 12.5% and Tyro’s largest shareholder, has backed the Offer. 
  • Tyro’s board considered the proposal to be materially below Tyro’s fundamental value and highly opportunistic. Tyro’s share price was down 66% ytd prior to Potentia’s approach.

Poongsan Corp: Spin-Off of Defense Business Is Negative for Existing Minority Shareholders

By Douglas Kim

  • On 7 September, Poongsan Corp announced a physical division spin-off of its defense business unit. This is likely to have a negative impact on the existing shareholders of Poongsan Corp.
  • Its proposal to spin off the defense business comes at a bad time when investors are very cautious about companies trying to spin off valuable businesses into a separate entity.
  • Poongsan’s spin-off is excluded from the need to include stock purchase rights.

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Sep 09
0

Daily Brief South Korea: WCP, Model Solution and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • WCP: First Day IPO Trading Strategy
  • Model Solution IPO Valuation Analysis

WCP: First Day IPO Trading Strategy

By Douglas Kim

  • The IPO book building for WCP starts on 14 September. We have updated our earnings estimates following the company’s 2Q 2022 results.
  • Our base case target price of WCP is 78,317 won per share, which is 2% lower than the low end of the IPO price range of 80,000 won.
  • To derive our target price, we used 22.4x EV/EBITDA in 2023, which is the average multiple of its peers in 2023.

Model Solution IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of Model Solution is implied market cap of 156 billion won and target price of 24,417 won. 
  • The IPO valuation range is from 24,000 won to 27,000 won and our target price would be close to the low end of the IPO price range.
  • Given the low upside relative to the IPO price range, we have a Negative view of this IPO. 

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Sep 09
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Gokomodo and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • East Ventures Leads $26m Round of Indonesian Agritech Firm

East Ventures Leads $26m Round of Indonesian Agritech Firm

By Tech in Asia

  • Gokomodo, an Indonesia-based agriculture supply chain platform, said it earned US$26 million in a series A round led by East Ventures.
  • Gokomodo is a B2B startup that offers digital procurement, digital commerce, and distribution services.
  • Its clients also have the option of buying competitive products through the company’s ecommerce storefront.

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Sep 09
0

Daily Brief United States: Target Corp, NVIDIA Corp, Lululemon Athletica, Iridium Communications, Marathon Oil, Cummins Inc, Ross Stores Inc, Gap Inc/The and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Tarjay: Legendary Retailer on Markdown
  • NVIDIA Corporation: Supporting The Metaverse
  • LULU: Revisiting Lululemon
  • Lululemon Athletica: Expansion In Spain & Other Drivers
  • IRDM: Smartphone Validation
  • Marathon Oil: Enhancement of Retail Operations & Other Drivers
  • Cummins Inc: The Meritor Acquisition & Other Drivers
  • Ross Stores: New Store Additions & Other Drivers
  • Gap Inc: New Experience Centre & Other Updates

Tarjay: Legendary Retailer on Markdown

By Enlightened Capital

  • Summary: Resilience and Growth Through Turmoil, Asymmetric Opportunity Today
  • Target TGT 4.54%↑ has been a highly controversial retailer for years.
  • Recall that in 2007, Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square invested in the business, ultimately building a 10% stake and launching an activist campaign to get on the board and force a sale-leaseback of Target’s extraordinarily valuable real estate.

NVIDIA Corporation: Supporting The Metaverse

By Baptista Research

  • Nvidia has been among the priciest semiconductor stocks for a while now.
  • The company matched market expectations and delivered an earnings beat though the stock is still very expensive.
  • We provide the stock of Nvidia with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the target price.

LULU: Revisiting Lululemon

By Investment Talk

  • The last time I penned my thoughts about Lululemon was December 2021 during a period when the core business shined and Lulu’s Mirror acquisition began to show the early signs of wilting in the face of declining demand.
  • I was grateful that management’s commentary implied they would avoid throwing everything at an attempt to make Mirror, a business which comprised <3% of Lulu’s revenue at the time, work.
  • They have since repurposed the business into a two-tiered subscription offering, branded under the parent’s more reputable name.

Lululemon Athletica: Expansion In Spain & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Throughout the second quarter, Lululemon’s momentum remained strong.
  • The company’s total revenue accelerated by 29% compared to last year and 28% on a 3-year CAGR basis, helping the company surpass Wall Street expectations.
  • It has been benefitting heavily from this launch as hiking has become increasingly popular among visitors since the pandemic.

IRDM: Smartphone Validation

By Hamed Khorsand

  • The announcement of Apple (AAPL) embedding satellite communications into its latest iPhone opens the door for Iridium Communications (IRDM) to benefit from competing handset makers in doing the same
  • The AAPL news establishes a business plan where service providers would not be threatened by phones bypassing their network.
  • IRDM has already been embedded in personal communication devices that have been widely popular the last couple of years

Marathon Oil: Enhancement of Retail Operations & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Marathon’s previous quarter was one of its best financial performances since transitioning to an independent E&P company.
  • Despite these factors, the company delivered an all-around beat and continues to reward its shareholders with capital returns.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Cummins Inc: The Meritor Acquisition & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cummins delivered a third consecutive all-around beat in a quarter that was marked by a number of significant developments including many ke partnerships.
  • The company announced partnerships with Daimler Truck, Scania, and North America for delivering fuel cell electric powertrains for heavy-duty truck applications, with Komatsu on developing haulage equipment zero-emission which includes hydrogen fuel cell solutions for the large mining haul truck applications.
  • It also achieved a significant milestone in the quarter related to two acquisitions, namely Meritor and Jacobs Vehicle Systems.

Ross Stores: New Store Additions & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ross Stores had quite a disappointing quarter where its revenues were well below Wall Street expectations.
  • Comparable store sales were low in comparison to a strong increase in the second quarter of the last year.
  • We provide the stock of Ross Stores with a ‘Hold’ rating with a revision in the market price.

Gap Inc: New Experience Centre & Other Updates

By Baptista Research

  • Gap saw a decline in its overall revenues in the past quarter but its results were still above analyst expectations.
  • The company’s overall revenues of $3.86 billion were down 8% from the prior year or 7% when measured in constant currency but it did deliver an earnings beat.
  • Further, they anticipate the near-term downturn in demand at Gap outlets, which they attribute to the persistent backlash from lower-income consumers.

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Sep 09
0

Daily Brief China: Onewo Space-Tech, People’s Insurance (PICC), Binjiang Service Group, YSB Inc, Dongfang Electric, Bilibili, Cummins Inc and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Onewo Space-Tech Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • People’s Insurance (PICC) (1339.HK) – The Rally (If Any) May Not Last Despite Undervalued
  • Binjiang H1 2022: Management Soundbites
  • Onewo Space-Tech IPO: A Deep Dive into the Largest Business Segment
  • YSB Inc Pre-IPO – The Negatives – However, It Comes at a Cost to Profitability
  • Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): At Full Throttle
  • Bilibili (9626 HK): 2Q22, Game Fell, But to Reduce Expense
  • Cummins Inc: The Meritor Acquisition & Other Drivers

Onewo Space-Tech Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK) aims to raise upto US$2bn in its Hong Kong IPO. OST is a property management service provider primarily owned by China Vanke (2202 HK). 
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, amongst the residential community service providers in China, OST ranked first. It also ranked first in the commercial space integrated services market in China.
  • In this note, we provide our earnings estimates and thoughts on valuation.

People’s Insurance (PICC) (1339.HK) – The Rally (If Any) May Not Last Despite Undervalued

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • People’s Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK)’s 2022H1 performance outpaced the industry peers, mainly driven by the improved performance of motor vehicle insurance business and non-vehicle insurance business. 
  • While non-life insurance business is the foundation/main driver of growth,life insurance business is the drag on performance, the successful transformation of which is an important factor to drive up valuation.
  • PICC’s is undervalued. The major catalyst could be the upcoming 20th National Congress, expecting some rally during this period. Due to unfriendly macro, the rally may not last long.

Binjiang H1 2022: Management Soundbites

By Sameer Taneja

  • Binjiang Service Group (3316 HK) presents a unique opportunity for investment in the property management space trading at 11.6x/9.4x FY22/23 PE, with a dividend yield of 5.2% FY22e (60% payout).
  • The company has >35% of its market capitalization in cash, and the parent so far has been a relatively safer investment option compared to the rest in the property space.
  • If the company is willing to continue paying >60%, we believe it can rerate to multiples comparable with SOEs of 16-20x PE.

Onewo Space-Tech IPO: A Deep Dive into the Largest Business Segment

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Onewo Space-Tech (ONEWO HK)  is a leading property management service provider in China focused on offering basic property management services.
  • Backed by China Vanke Co Ltd (H) (2202 HK) , the company has filed for an IPO on the HKEx and plans to raise proceeds of around US$2bn.
  • In this insight, we discuss the company’s business model and deep dive into the largest business segment Community Space Living Consumption Services.

YSB Inc Pre-IPO – The Negatives – However, It Comes at a Cost to Profitability

By Clarence Chu

  • YSB Inc (YSB HK) is looking to raise about US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.  
  • YSB Inc. (YSB) operates a pharmaceutical platform, digitizing the pharmaceutical transaction and service segment.
  • However, gross margins have fluctuated owing to a changing sales mix. Growth has also come at the cost of profitability and YSB has consistently burned cash over its track period.

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): At Full Throttle

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Strong new orders in 2H22 and FY23 are the drivers for Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) after it posted a 31.6% earnings growth and new orders of Rmb36.7bn in 1H22.
  • Demand outlook for its major products including coal-fired, gas turbine, renewable, pumped storage and hydrogen energy are all very encouraging. 
  • We estimate order backlog will equal to 1.6x FY22F revenue by year-end. Despite solid outperformance, DEC is still cheap at 12.6x and 9.8x PERs for FY22 and FY23.

Bilibili (9626 HK): 2Q22, Game Fell, But to Reduce Expense

By Ming Lu

  • In 2Q22, the revenue growth rate was lower than we expected, especially in the game business.
  • We believe the May layoff will reduce operating expenses in following quarters.
  • We set an upside of 8.3% and a price target of HK$197.

Cummins Inc: The Meritor Acquisition & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cummins delivered a third consecutive all-around beat in a quarter that was marked by a number of significant developments including many ke partnerships.
  • The company announced partnerships with Daimler Truck, Scania, and North America for delivering fuel cell electric powertrains for heavy-duty truck applications, with Komatsu on developing haulage equipment zero-emission which includes hydrogen fuel cell solutions for the large mining haul truck applications.
  • It also achieved a significant milestone in the quarter related to two acquisitions, namely Meritor and Jacobs Vehicle Systems.

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