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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Sep 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

By Joe Jasper

  • Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on the S&P 500, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
  • We see a bounce as possible at these levels, but breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows — or worse.
  • WTI crude oil is breaking below the critical $85 support level, confirming a major top in place. The Bloomberg commodity index needs to break $32.50 to confirm a major top.

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Sep 08
0

Daily Brief ECM: SG Holdings Placement – Had Suffered from Weak Price Momentum and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • SG Holdings Placement – Had Suffered from Weak Price Momentum, Buyback Should Support Share Price
  • JMDC Offering – Smaller Than It Looks
  • CALB IPO: The Bear Case
  • Global Health Pre-IPO – Stiff Competition Makes Growth Look Mediocre
  • Top Material IPO Preview
  • Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – The Beginning of the End of the Overhang
  • Workday Inc: Growing Customer Base
  • Ulta Beauty: The Beauty& Campaign

SG Holdings Placement – Had Suffered from Weak Price Momentum, Buyback Should Support Share Price

By Clarence Chu

  • MUFG Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp are looking to raise a combined US$210m from trimming their respective stakes in SG Holdings (9143 JP).
  • While representing 16 days of three month ADV, comprising only 10.1m shares, 1.57% of the firm’s current market cap, the deal is a small one on an absolute basis.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

JMDC Offering – Smaller Than It Looks

By Travis Lundy

  • In February 2022, Noritsu Koki (7744 JP) – longtime holder of JMDC Inc (4483 JP) – sold 2/3 of its holdings to Omron (6645). Omron made a US$1bn new bet.  
  • Shares fell after Q1 results, and then fell another 7% in 2 days after the company announced a primary offering for ¥22bn to international investors, ¥11bn to Omron. 
  • High PER but Fundamental Forecasts are up-and-to-the-right, and there is a surprising amount of flow mitigation from passive investor activity the next 3 months.

CALB IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • CALB (CALBLZ CH), a leading EV battery manufacturer, is seeking to raise US$2.0 billion through an HKEx IPO, according to press reports.
  • In CALB IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.  
  • The key elements of the bear case rest on its small scale, low profitability and high FCF burn compared to listed peers.   

Global Health Pre-IPO – Stiff Competition Makes Growth Look Mediocre

By Ethan Aw

  • Global Health (Medanta) (GH IN) is looking to raise approximately US$270m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Global Health (GH) is a hospital network that operates under the Medanta brand. The firm currently has five hospitals in operation and one more planned for development.
  • The company has managed to remain profitable throughout COVID-19 and even experienced margin expansion in FY22. However, its post-COVID growth might be short-lived given stiff competition amongst peers.

Top Material IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Top Material is getting ready for an IPO in October in Korea. The IPO price range is from 27,000 won to 30,000 won.
  • Established in 2012, Top Material’s main business is in system engineering. It also provides high performance electrode and cathode materials for the lithium ion based rechargeable batteries.
  • Top Material had sales of 31.9 billion won (up 375% YoY) and operating profit of 4.8 billion won (up 930% YoY) in 2021.

Interglobe Aviation (Indigo) Placement – The Beginning of the End of the Overhang

By Sumeet Singh

  • InterGlobe Aviation Ltd (INDIGO IN)’s co-founder Rakesh Gangwal aims to raise around US$250m via selling 2.8% of the company.
  • He had earlier stated his intention to pare down his stake after a long drawn, and very public battle, with the other co-founder Rahul Bhatia. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Workday Inc: Growing Customer Base

By Baptista Research

  • Workday delivered another all-around beat, outperforming market expectations with respect to its operating indicators, highlighting the ongoing significance of digital transformation for finance and HR.
  • Along with the significant expansion of their core HCM and financial apps, Q2 saw remarkable momentum throughout their broader spectrum of solutions.
  • Customers create apps with Extend customized for their specific use cases, potentially eliminating the need for additional specialized development tools.

Ulta Beauty: The Beauty& Campaign

By Baptista Research

  • Ulta Beauty performed well in this quarter and delivered an all-around beat.
  • Based on point-of-sale statistics from the NPD Group, all key categories for the quarter exceeded its expectations, and they grew their market share in prestige beauty compared to the previous year.
  • Haircare, their second-largest category, experienced double-digit growth for another quarter due to newness and excellent participation in their semi-annual Gorgeous Hair Event.

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Sep 08
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Telecoms – Strong Dollar a Boon for NTT and Softbank Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Telecoms – Strong Dollar a Boon for NTT and Softbank Group, Bad for Mercari
  • European Recession – 3 Japanese Stocks to BUY for a Rebound
  • PCAOB and CSRC‘s Agreement on Audit Terms Could Fail – The Real Test of China ADRs Lies Ahead

Japan Telecoms – Strong Dollar a Boon for NTT and Softbank Group, Bad for Mercari

By Kirk Boodry

  • Within our coverage, NTT and Softbank Group are the main beneficiaries of a stronger dollar. NTT benefits operationally as it generates c. $18-20bn in overseas revenue
  • Softbank benefits in valuation terms as c. 90% of the portfolio is dollar-linked. The forex move from ¥115 to ¥144 boosts asset value by ¥2.4trn or  ¥1,500/share (net)
  • ECommerce play Mercari gets 30% of revenue from the US but that segment is losing money and a stronger dollar expands that on a yen P&L

European Recession – 3 Japanese Stocks to BUY for a Rebound

By Mark Chadwick

  • The European economy is heading for a recession due to surging energy costs
  • We believe that equity markets have already discounted this severe situation to a large extent
  • As governments respond with aggressive fiscal measures, we believe 3 Japanese stocks will be key beneficiaries

PCAOB and CSRC‘s Agreement on Audit Terms Could Fail – The Real Test of China ADRs Lies Ahead

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The Statement of Protocol signed between PCAOB and CSRC/MOF is good for China concept stocks in the short term, but it doesn’t mean the risk of delisting is completely eliminated.
  • From the statements of the two sides, there are still some differences. What the US side emphasizes is “full authority”, but China requires “principle of reciprocity” of regulatory cooperation.
  • It’s difficult to reach final agreement.The trend of China concept stocks delisting from US and relisting on HKEX/A-share would not change. Investors are advised to prepare for Black Swan event.

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Sep 08
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China SCE and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China SCE, CIFI Holdings

Morning Views Asia: China SCE, CIFI Holdings

By Charles Macgregor

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Sep 08
0

Daily Brief ESG: 2022 UNGC Ten Principle Compliance Report on Korean Listed Companies and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • 2022 UNGC Ten Principle Compliance Report on Korean Listed Companies
  • Investment Managers Should Seek Ways to Reflect ESG Investing in Their Investment Performance

2022 UNGC Ten Principle Compliance Report on Korean Listed Companies

By Yujin Oh

  • Major index providers and investment management companies reflect on United Nations Global Compact (UNGC) principles for the assessment of portfolios. This particular UNGC compliance analysis focuses on Korean listed companies.
  • The evaluation of Korea’s 828 listed companies and their sustainable management level utilised Who’s Good’s ESG evaluating framework, ‘Performance Analysis’ and ‘Incident Analysis’ and applied it to the Ten Principles. 
  • Only 10% of the 828 listed companies were members of the UNGC, and 50% of the top 100 companies who scored the highest in UNGC scores, were members of UNGC.  

Investment Managers Should Seek Ways to Reflect ESG Investing in Their Investment Performance

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The lackluster ESG investing trust performance is the main reason for the sharp decline in new setups, as retail investors tend to trade short term.
  • The fact that Japanese companies aren’t leading the world in green practices and are reluctant to disclose their activities are the factors that prevent wash from occurring and being detected.
  • While it’s difficult to evaluate ESG investing in short-term-performance, it’s important to pay attention to how management is taking measures to increase corporate value in ESG perspective in particular G.

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Sep 08
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Could Be A BIG One and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Could Be A BIG One
  • SOHO China (410 HK): Blackstone Deal Potentially Back On As Pan Shiyi Goes “Altruistic”
  • MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Potential Deletes
  • Hitachi Transport (9086 JP) – Tender Launch Likely Soon But Watch for Flow
  • KRX New Deal Index Rebalance: All Forecasts Right as KMW Soars and AfreecaTV Drops
  • KRX K-New Deal Rebalancing: Official Results & Passive Flows
  • DTAC/​True Merger: NBTC Likely to Set Measures to Approve Merger
  • Major Stock Swap Between Hyundai Motor Group and KT Corp
  • Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 1st Sept 2022: A8 New Media, China Fordoo
  • Intention to Float Porsche AG: A Good Deal for Porsche Automobile Holding SE

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Could Be A BIG One

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be up to 6 changes to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) at the December rebalance, mainly driven by the deletions.
  • If there are six changes to the index, estimated one-way turnover is 6.47% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4,124m.
  • There is large short interest on quite a lot of stocks and will play an important role in the rebalance.

SOHO China (410 HK): Blackstone Deal Potentially Back On As Pan Shiyi Goes “Altruistic”

By David Blennerhassett

  • Pan Shiyi and Pan Zhangxin – Chairman and CEO respectively of SOHO China (410 HK) – have tendered their resignations, with immediate effect. 
  • Both are resigning “to focus on supporting the arts and philanthropic pursuits“.
  • That sounds like a “donation” is on the cards. And the Pans selling their stake in SOHO China would nicely fund that donation.

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Potential Deletes

By Brian Freitas

Hitachi Transport (9086 JP) – Tender Launch Likely Soon But Watch for Flow

By Travis Lundy

  • Hitachi Transport System (9086 JP) has had a “long” wait to get its approvals, but EC and China are in, any remaining should be in shortly. 
  • Yesterday, as a footnote on the SG Holdings offering document, there was a comment about SG Holdings selling shares. This was likely more good corporate governance hygiene than warning.
  • Shares are down this morning. I’d expect final approvals and launch quite soon. I would therefore look to buy the dip on flow – block or not.

KRX New Deal Index Rebalance: All Forecasts Right as KMW Soars and AfreecaTV Drops

By Brian Freitas

KRX K-New Deal Rebalancing: Official Results & Passive Flows

By Sanghyun Park

  • KMW replaces AfreecaTV in BBIG. There is no constituent change for Battery and Bio. Seojin and Intellion replace NHN KCP and Danal in Internet. Nexon Games replaces Devsisters in Game.
  • The effective date has been postponed to the 13th, and the ETF operators will conduct the rebalancing trading at the close tomorrow, the 8th.
  • Regarding relative passive impact, KMW and AfreecaTV should receive the most attention, and this pattern is already appearing today.

DTAC/​True Merger: NBTC Likely to Set Measures to Approve Merger

By Arun George

  • The Bangkok Post reports that the Thai regulator (NBTC) will propose ten remedial measures to approve the Total Access Communication (DTAC TB)/True Corp Pcl (TRUE TB) merger.
  • The NBTC board is not expected to issue a final decision as it waits for an interpretation by the Council of State if it can approve or reject the merger.
  • The current share price ratio is 9.511x vs the swap ratio of 10.221x. At last close, DTAC and True’s gross spread to the VTO price is 9.2% and 10.7%, respectively.

Major Stock Swap Between Hyundai Motor Group and KT Corp

By Douglas Kim

  • On 7 September, Hyundai Motor (005380 KS) announced a major stock swap with KT Corp (030200 KS). 
  • KT will exchange about 750 billion won (7.7%) of KT’s treasury stock for 445.6 billion won (1.04%) of Hyundai Motor shares and 300.3 billion won (1.46%) of Hyundai Mobis shares.
  • This stock swap is likely to have a bigger positive impact on KT versus Hyundai Motor and Hyundai Mobis. 

Hong Kong CEO & Director Dealings – 1st Sept 2022: A8 New Media, China Fordoo

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. 
  • These insights may also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing. Stocks mentioned include A8 New Media (800 HK) and China Fordoo Holdings (2399 HK).

Intention to Float Porsche AG: A Good Deal for Porsche Automobile Holding SE

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Volkswagen aims for an IPO of Porsche AG (operating company). 25% of preferreds will be placed and 25% of ords sold to Porsche Automobile Holding SE (combined, 25% equity capital).
  • Thought a holding chain, the Pïech and Porsche families will directly control 25% of the votes of Porsche AG and 39.975% indirectly (total of 64.975%), with just a 24.275% economic interest.
  • Porsche Automobile Holding SE will cover c.30% of the cost of its stake through the extraordinary dividend that Volkswagen will pay. It also gets the ords at a friendly price.

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Sep 08
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Sea Ltd – Just About Doomed and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Sea Ltd – Just About Doomed
  • Evolution Gaming: The World’s Largest Casino, Which You Probably Never Heard Of
  • PureTech Health (PRTC LN): Continued Value Unlocking; Multiple Catalysts Are Pushing Up Stock Price
  • Salesforce.com Inc: Code Builder Update & Other Drivers
  • Capri Holdings: Digital Momentum & Other Drivers
  • Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, Trex
  • Campbell Soup Inc: Online Sales As A Key Driver & Other Factors Driving Growth

Sea Ltd – Just About Doomed

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • It was reported yesterday that Sea Ltd (SE US)‘s e-commerce arm “Shopee” has begun rescinding job offers.
  • Having burnt around $2.0bn during the first six months of 2022 pursuing e-commerce and fintech growth aspirations, this seems like an extreme measure to ensure the company’s survival.
  • With the gaming profitability fading, we are starting to think that even the extreme cost-cutting could be insufficient to overturn Sea’s e-commerce and fintech cash burn.

Evolution Gaming: The World’s Largest Casino, Which You Probably Never Heard Of

By Steven Chen

  • Although lesser-known, this Swedish company dominates one of the most lucrative segments of the global casino industry.
  • In our view, it is probably the only investable casino company, and despite its size, still has a massive growth runway ahead.
  • Our DCF model implies a 15%-20% total return for the company’s long-term shareholders.

PureTech Health (PRTC LN): Continued Value Unlocking; Multiple Catalysts Are Pushing Up Stock Price

By Tina Banerjee

  • PureTech Health (PRTC LN) has raised approximately $115.4 million through partial offloading of stake in Karuna Therapeutics Inc (KRTX US). PureTech will continue to hold 3.5% of Karuna’s outstanding shares.
  • Following the transactions, PureTech has updated guidance to extend its operational runway to Q1 2026 from prior cash runway guidance into Q1 2025.
  • Karuna plans to submit a new drug application for KarXT in schizophrenia with the FDA in mid-2023. As a co-inventor of KarXT, PureTech has the right to receive royalty.

Salesforce.com Inc: Code Builder Update & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Salesforce has generated excellent revenue growth, profitability, and cash flows in its last result, surpassing Wall Street expectations on all counts despite operating in a challenging financial climate.
  • With new clients like the U.S.
  • Department of Veterans Affairs, Workday, and Uber, Service Cloud grew 14% year over year or 18% in constant currency.

Capri Holdings: Digital Momentum & Other Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Capri has seen a decent performance across all three of its luxury residences and 2022 has been delivering better results than the management had anticipated.
  • The company delivered an all-around beat with a revenue of $1.36 billion, which exceeded management and market expectations.
  • Fendace combined unique features with classic silhouettes from two renowned Italian luxury brands, Fendi and Versace.

Breaking Estimate Short Candidates: Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, Trex

By Eric Fernandez, CFA

  • This model finds companies facing recent sharp cuts in estimates. These shorts can have very disparate characteristics.
  • The key judgement involves whether the negative revisions are temporary or if they are indications of ongoing weakness in the business. 
  • Breaking Estimates stocks often continue to decline after the cuts.  This week we flag:  Upstart, Cerence, Zillow, Trex

Campbell Soup Inc: Online Sales As A Key Driver & Other Factors Driving Growth

By Baptista Research

  • The demand for Campbell’s portfolio of brands continued to be strong in the last quarter and it was able to match the market’s revenue expectations through its result.
  • The company was able to deliver an earnings beat as it enhanced supply chain performance and put into place efficient revenue management to combat inflation.
  • Their Win in Soup approach will remain strong in fiscal 2023 largely due to innovation.

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Sep 08
0

Daily Brief Macro: India: De-Leveraged and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • India: De-Leveraged, and Hence Set on a Path of Investment-Led Growth
  • CX Daily: The Weak Link in China’s New-Energy Power Plan: Weather

India: De-Leveraged, and Hence Set on a Path of Investment-Led Growth

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • Amid a global deceleration, India’s real GDP grew 13.5%YoY in Apr-Jun’22, led by GFCF(+20%YoY) and PCE(+26%YoY). Actual growth was under-estimated because of errors in deflators for GDP and net exports. 
  • Nominal GDP growth of 26.7%YoY enabled corporate tax revenue to rise 35%YoY and income taxes 50%YoY, bringing the 12mma of the fiscal deficit down to 6.1% of GDP. 
  • As the government’s market borrowing declines, it will crowd-in more private investment, enabling real GDP to grow 8% in FY23 despite the global slowdown. Stay Overweight. 

CX Daily: The Weak Link in China’s New-Energy Power Plan: Weather

By Caixin Global

  • In Depth: The weak link in China’s new-energy power plan: weather

  • Debate rages after residents barred from earthquake evacuation due to Covid curbs

  • Xi tells nation to mobilize for ‘core technology’ breakthrough

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Sep 08
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Sea Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Sea Ltd – Just About Doomed

Sea Ltd – Just About Doomed

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • It was reported yesterday that Sea Ltd (SE US)‘s e-commerce arm “Shopee” has begun rescinding job offers.
  • Having burnt around $2.0bn during the first six months of 2022 pursuing e-commerce and fintech growth aspirations, this seems like an extreme measure to ensure the company’s survival.
  • With the gaming profitability fading, we are starting to think that even the extreme cost-cutting could be insufficient to overturn Sea’s e-commerce and fintech cash burn.

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Sep 08
0

Daily Brief Australia: Australian Strategic Materials and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Potential Deletes

MVIS Global Rare Earth/​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Potential Deletes

By Brian Freitas

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