All Posts By

Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Macro: UK Inflation Excess Survives Reweighting and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • UK Inflation Excess Survives Reweighting
  • Steno Signals #189 – The Perception Vs. Reality of Inflation: A Growing Divide
  • The Center Cannot Hold
  • Beijing’s Ramped-Up Policy Support May Not Deliver Sufficiently
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 17 March
  • Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 March
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 17 March
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 17 March
  • CX Daily: The Great Wealth Migration: Why the Ultra-Rich Are Fleeing Britain
  • Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 March


UK Inflation Excess Survives Reweighting

By Phil Rush

  • Updated inflation basket weightings can shift the inflation outlook without any new fundamental shock. The seasonal and trend outlook is unaffected by the 2025 update.
  • Although our forecast is broadly unchanged, this still mitigates the risk that reduced weights on energy and sanitation utilities dampen the surge in April and July forecasts.
  • This outcome further emboldens our confidence in our above-consensus forecast. We also note that the average import intensity is now weighted near historic lows.

Steno Signals #189 – The Perception Vs. Reality of Inflation: A Growing Divide

By Andreas Steno

  • Happy Monday from Copenhagen! We have a six-month stopgap funding deal in place in the U.S. until September, but no new debt ceiling legislation.
  • So, despite a shutdown being avoided, we are not yet talking about a new mountain of debt.
  • This is why I think the late-Friday reaction in bond yields was somewhat overdone.

The Center Cannot Hold

By Mark Connors

  • The fracturing of political alliances is a growing risk factor for markets and therefore models.
  • Central Banks (Monetary Policy) have been the main source of risk / relief since the 2008 GFC
  • Since BrExit (2016), political instability has been a growing factor, rewriting trade, fiscal policy and more.

Beijing’s Ramped-Up Policy Support May Not Deliver Sufficiently

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • The latest policy signals show that Beijing is more serious about boosting consumer demand. But these still fall short of the much-needed rebalancing of the economy from investment towards consumption.
  • Promised support should  maintain growth this year but Beijing’s reluctance to go further probably stems from the need to keep its fiscal powder dry, given the uncertainty emanating from Washington.
  • Better-Than-Expected economic data would have validated its cautious approach. Yet, given continued patches of persistent weaknesses, the costs of inaction will grow

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 17 March

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils prices extend rise versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.
  • Increasingly firm margins coincide with closed arbitrage to more distant outlets like Americas, and less feasible arbitrage to logistically-closer markets like India and Middle East.
  • Firm margins and closed arbitrage point to tight supply.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 March

By Iain Pocock

  • Seasonal boost in US base oils demand could be more muted than expected, with uncertainty about end-user consumption incentivizing buyers to maintain lower stocks.
  • Seasonal rise in demand typically cuts surplus supplies and often coincides with plant maintenance work, like this year.
  • Stronger demand and tighter supply typically give refiners more leverage to adjust prices to reflect those firmer fundamentals.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 17 March

By Iain Pocock

  • US Group II base oils export prices mostly stay in narrow range vs vacuum gasoil so far this year.
  • US’ steady price premium contrasts with strong rise in Asia Group II base oils export price premium to Singapore gasoil prices so far this year.
  • US Group I brightstock price rises vs vacuum gasoil so far this year.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 17 March

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils values rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.
  • Firmer base oils values contrast with lower gasoil premium to crude oil, magnifying impact of rising base oils premium.
  • Rising base oils premium points to firm supply-demand fundamentals, especially in Europe and Asia.

CX Daily: The Great Wealth Migration: Why the Ultra-Rich Are Fleeing Britain

By Caixin Global

  • Wealth / The Great Wealth Migration: Why the ultra-rich are fleeing Britain
  • Payment /: UnionPay partners with Cambodia, Thailand to make payments easier
  • Ports /Commentary: Why Li Ka-shing’s Panama ports sale is a good deal

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 March

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils demand could ease, with buyers having already covered requirements for peak-demand season in month of March.
  • Typical slowdown in consumption at start of second quarter of year curbs urgency for blenders to replenish supplies.
  • Expectations of improving availability in Q2 2025 add to attraction of holding off moves to replenish stocks.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Most Read: Proto Corp, JX Advanced Metals, DN Solutions, EcoNaviSta , Canvest Environmental Protection Group, OneConnect Financial Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Big Retail Allocation Means No Fast Entry
  • [Activism Japan] Proto Corp (4298 JP) – Kaname Capital Files an Injunction? Bold Strategy, Cotton…
  • JX Advance Metals IPO Trading – Demand Wasn’t Great
  • UK Inflation Excess Survives Reweighting
  • DN Solutions IPO: Index Inclusion Timing Depends on Lock-Up Expiry Schedule
  • EcoNavista (5585 JP) – Takeover By Eisai (4523)
  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Trading Debut
  • JX Advanced Metals IPO Trading
  • Canvest (1381 HK): Get Involved
  • Ping An’s Strategic Buyout of OneConnect: Navigating Shareholder Approval and Financial Implications Amidst Declining Performance


JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Big Retail Allocation Means No Fast Entry

By Brian Freitas

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) has priced its IPO at ¥820/share, at the top end of the IPO range but lower than the initial indication of ¥862/share.
  • With the bulk of the domestic offering going to retail investors, there is no chance of Fast Entry for the stock in global indices.
  • TOPIX INDEX inclusion will take place at the close on 28 April, while inclusion in major global indices is likely to take place in August and September.

[Activism Japan] Proto Corp (4298 JP) – Kaname Capital Files an Injunction? Bold Strategy, Cotton…

By Travis Lundy

  • Late on the 17th, Proto Corp (4298 JP) released a filing to the TSE saying activist-ish investor and objector to the current MBO, Kaname Capital, had filed an injunction.
  • The injunction suit against two directors says procedures were unfair and the decision violated the duty of due care. They ask the Court to rule the directors halt support and…
  • …that the MBO actor YOKOYAMA Hiroichi not terminate the offer on 21 March 2025. Injunction filings against directors for Tender Offers are rare for a reason.

JX Advance Metals IPO Trading – Demand Wasn’t Great

By Sumeet Singh

  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)’s parent, ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP), raised around US$2.5bn via selling more than half of its stake in JXAM in its Japan IPO.
  • JXAM engages in business activities primarily focused on the development, manufacture and sale of materials made from copper and rare metals, which are used in the semiconductor and ICT fields.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

UK Inflation Excess Survives Reweighting

By Phil Rush

  • Updated inflation basket weightings can shift the inflation outlook without any new fundamental shock. The seasonal and trend outlook is unaffected by the 2025 update.
  • Although our forecast is broadly unchanged, this still mitigates the risk that reduced weights on energy and sanitation utilities dampen the surge in April and July forecasts.
  • This outcome further emboldens our confidence in our above-consensus forecast. We also note that the average import intensity is now weighted near historic lows.

DN Solutions IPO: Index Inclusion Timing Depends on Lock-Up Expiry Schedule

By Brian Freitas

  • DN Solutions (298440 KS) is looking to raise up to KRW 1,573bn (US$1.08bn), valuing the company at KRW 5.66 trillion (US$3.9bn) at the top end of the IPO price range.
  • The highest probability of DN Solutions being added to the KOSPI200 Index is at the June 2026 rebalance. The stock needs to move 60% higher to be added in December 2025.
  • Inclusion in global indices could commence in August/November and will depend on institutional investor lock-up schedules. Flows are small unless the stock moves higher and is included in bigger indices.

EcoNavista (5585 JP) – Takeover By Eisai (4523)

By Travis Lundy

  • EcoNaviSta (5585 JP) has a couple of interesting product lines and platforms. That makes it attractive, and scalable. Synergies to a big buyer are reasonably obvious.
  • Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) is that big buyer, having decided to be interested last summer. I could imagine others could be interested too. The tech has uses.
  • For the moment, it is a high EV/Revenue bid on an interesting small company. The chairman, cross-holders, directors, and a couple of financial institutions own 66+%. But…

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


JX Advanced Metals IPO Trading

By Douglas Kim

  • JX Advanced Metals raised 438.6 billion yen (US$3 billion) on its IPO offering after pricing the IPO at 820 yen per share, valuing the company at 761.3 billion yen. 
  • Our base case valuation of JX Advanced Metals is price per share of 863 yen, based on P/E of 9.9x using our estimated net profit of 81 billion yen (2026E).
  • Therefore, we would sell into strength if the share price of JX Advanced Metals rises to the 863 yen to 1,044 yen per share.

Canvest (1381 HK): Get Involved

By David Blennerhassett

  • After SAFE gave the green light on the 19th Feb, I estimated only a week was required to secure the (strangely) outstanding internal guarantees. It took a frustrating three-and-a-half weeks.
  • Nevertheless, all pre-cons are now done. Canvest Environmental (1381 HK)‘s Scheme Document is expected to be dispatched or before the 25th April. 
  • Assuming the Scheme gets up – and it will – expect payment around the 20th June. This is done.

Ping An’s Strategic Buyout of OneConnect: Navigating Shareholder Approval and Financial Implications Amidst Declining Performance

By Special Situation Investments

  • OneConnect received a non-binding acquisition proposal from Ping An Group at $7.98/ADS, requiring 75% shareholder approval.
  • Ping An acquired OneConnect’s virtual banking division for $119m and terminated its cloud services contract in 2024.
  • The buyout is financially attractive for Ping An, acquiring OCFT at net cash levels, with a US$100m consideration.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Analytics and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Australia: Spartan Resources, Ramelius Resources and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) Attractive Offer
  • Will Ramelius have competition for Spartan?


Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) Attractive Offer

By Arun George

  • On 17 March, Spartan Resources (SPR AU) entered a binding scheme with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU). Spartan shareholders will receive A$0.25 cash + 0.6957 RMS shares per SPR share. 
  • The scheme vote is low risk as Ramelius has secured irrevocable commitments from Tembo Capital, 1832 Asset Management, and Fourth Sail Capital (18.89% of outstanding shares). 
  • The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. The scheme meeting is targeted for mid-July. 

Will Ramelius have competition for Spartan?

By Money of Mine

  • Ramelius and Spartan announce a transformational combination deal
  • Deal includes 25 cents cash kicker and 0.6957 Ramelius shares for Spartan shareholders
  • Top three Spartan shareholders, excluding Ramelius, support deal with combined 19% ownership stake

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Singapore: Alliance Global Group, Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • 10 in 10 with Emperador – Embracing Premiumisation for Global Expansion
  • S-REITs That Bucked Recent Market Downturn


10 in 10 with Emperador – Embracing Premiumisation for Global Expansion

By Geoff Howie

  • Emperador’s acquisition of Los Danzantes aligns with its “Contemporise, Premiumise, Internationalise” strategy, enhancing its premium Mezcal offerings.
  • The Dalmore Distillery expansion, doubling capacity, will impact Emperador’s revenue mix 12 years post-completion.
  • Whyte & Mackay’s sustainability initiatives include a Jura Biomass Boiler and carbon capture, targeting carbon neutrality by 2030.

S-REITs That Bucked Recent Market Downturn

By Geoff Howie

  • S-REITs rebounded 5.2% with S$50 million net institutional inflow, led by CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust and Frasers Centrepoint Trust.
  • US Fed Fund Rates outlook turned dovish, with expectations of 75bps cuts by 2026 due to weak consumer gauges.
  • Larger-cap S-REITs averaged 4.8% returns, outperforming smaller-cap counterparts, supported by institutional inflows and index weightings.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief South Korea: Hanwha Ocean , DN Solutions and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Hunting for Outsized Moves in Off-The-Radar Korean Sector ETFs: SOL Shipbuilding & PLUS K-Defense
  • DN Solutions IPO Valuation Analysis
  • DN Solutions Pre-IPO – The Positives – Growing Market Share


Hunting for Outsized Moves in Off-The-Radar Korean Sector ETFs: SOL Shipbuilding & PLUS K-Defense

By Sanghyun Park

  • March 5 price action overshot passive impact. Theme-trade momentum, one-way institutional flows, and ETF rebalancing (~10% turnover) juiced the move—Hanwha Ocean -5.41%, Samsung Heavy +5.34%, HD KSOE +6.58%.
  • June’s rebalance gets spicier—another ETF, ARIRANG K-Defense ETF (449450 KS), also runs the same 20% reversion on June 13, doubling the flow impact and setting up amplified price action.
  • Key 20% reversion hits: Hanwha Ocean (SOL Shipbuilding) & Hanwha Aerospace (PLUS K-Defense). ~5%p passive outflows (~0.1x DTV) expected, with Hanwha Ocean facing double impact from both ETFs.

DN Solutions IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case valuation of DN Solutions suggests target price of 90,167 won per share, which is 1% higher than the high end of the IPO price range. 
  • Our base case valuation is based on 17.9x P/E using our estimated net profit of 317.9 billion won for DN Solutions in 2025. 
  • Given the lack of upside, we have a Negative View of this IPO. DN Solutions has higher operating margin and ROE but lower revenue growth than its comps. 

DN Solutions Pre-IPO – The Positives – Growing Market Share

By Sumeet Singh

  • DN Solutions (298440 KS) (DNS) aims to raise around US$1.1bn in its Korea IPO via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
  • DNS is engaged in the manufacture and sale of machine tools and the business of automation solutions and services related thereto.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s past performance.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Indonesia: Indika Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia


Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Indika Energy, China Hongqiao, Greenko Energy
  • In the US, advance retail sales came in below estimates at 0.2% m-o-m (0.6% e / -1.2% revised p) in February. Moreover, the January figure was revised downwards to negative 1.2% (from -0.9%), the lowest since July 2021. Seven of the retail report’s 13 categories posted declines, notably motor vehicles, gasoline sales, as well as spending at restaurants and bars.
  • Retail sales (excluding auto and gas) rose 0.5% m-o-m (0.4% e / -0.8% p), while the retail sales control group (which feeds into the government’s calculation of goods spending for GDP) was up 1.0% m-o-m (0.4% e / -1.0% revised p), supported by a rebound in e-commerce activity.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief United States: Palantir Technologies , S&P 500 INDEX, Base Oil, Fortress Biotech, Klarna Group, SpringWorks Therapeutics Inc, Wheaton Precious Metals, JAKKS Pacific and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Palantir’s (PLTR US) High-Flying Stock Is So Expensive It Doesn’t Make Any Sense
  • S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 17 March
  • Sun Pharma’s Acquisition of Checkpoint Therapeutics: Analyzing the CVR Payout Potential and Strategic Implications
  • Klarna Group (KLAR): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of the Next High Profile E-Commerce Company
  • SpringWorks Therapeutics (SWTX): A Compelling Biotech Buyout Thesis with Limited Downside
  • Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 March
  • Wheaton Precious Metals — Q424/FY24 results
  • JAKK: Being More Realistic in Uncertain Times; Reiterate Buy, $40 PT
  • Wheaton Precious Metals — Q424/FY24 results


Palantir’s (PLTR US) High-Flying Stock Is So Expensive It Doesn’t Make Any Sense

By Finimize Research

  • Palantir,  the secretive US tech giant, has dropped 30% in the past month, but with a PER of over 150 times, it could well have much, much further to fall.
  • In the past year, no company executives have bought shares in this firm. Plenty have sold, though. In fact, as a group, they’ve dumped $3 billion worth of the stock.
  • Here’s what Palantir does, what it should earn, its current valuation – and what all of that should tell you as an investor.

S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

By Joe Jasper

  • In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. 
  • The  downward pressure has brought the S&P to the bottom of our range at 5600-5670.
  • Friday’s and Monday’s tape action alleviated oversold conditions as strong demand was a clear positive. We need the 5500-5600 level to hold in order to remain constructive.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 17 March

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils prices extend rise versus feedstock/competing fuel prices.
  • Increasingly firm margins coincide with closed arbitrage to more distant outlets like Americas, and less feasible arbitrage to logistically-closer markets like India and Middle East.
  • Firm margins and closed arbitrage point to tight supply.

Sun Pharma’s Acquisition of Checkpoint Therapeutics: Analyzing the CVR Payout Potential and Strategic Implications

By Special Situation Investments

  • Checkpoint Therapeutics is being acquired by Sun Pharma for $4.1/share plus a non-transferable CVR worth up to $0.70/share.
  • The CVR payout depends on EU approval of Unloxcyt, with four scenarios based on approval timing and dosing schedule.
  • Shareholder approval is likely due to FBIO’s control and Armistice Capital’s support, with a 66% premium over pre-announcement levels.

Klarna Group (KLAR): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of the Next High Profile E-Commerce Company

By IPO Boutique

  • Their total revenue was $1.90 billion, $2.28 billion, and $2.81 billion and their net profit (loss) was ($1.04 billion), ($244 million), and $21 million in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively.
  • The company was once valued at $46 billion in a SoftBank-led funding round. Klarna saw its valuation slashed by 85% in 2022 to $6.7 billion in its most recent fundraising.
  • The company made headlines when CNBC reported that Klarna will be the exclusive provider of buy now, pay later loans for Walmart (WMT US).

SpringWorks Therapeutics (SWTX): A Compelling Biotech Buyout Thesis with Limited Downside

By Triple S Special Situations Investing

  • SpringWorks Therapeutics represents a highly attractive risk-reward opportunity with substantial upside potential from an imminent acquisition.
  • The company is currently in play with confirmed acquisition talks and multiple signs pointing to a transaction at a significant premium to current levels.
  • Current price: $50, Target price: $70-85, representing approximately 50% upside with limited downside risk.

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 17 March

By Iain Pocock

  • Seasonal boost in US base oils demand could be more muted than expected, with uncertainty about end-user consumption incentivizing buyers to maintain lower stocks.
  • Seasonal rise in demand typically cuts surplus supplies and often coincides with plant maintenance work, like this year.
  • Stronger demand and tighter supply typically give refiners more leverage to adjust prices to reflect those firmer fundamentals.

Wheaton Precious Metals — Q424/FY24 results

By Edison Investment Research

Wheaton’s adjusted EPS for Q424 exceeded our prior expectations by 1.9%, largely due to better average realised prices for its precious metals. As a consequence, it recorded record revenue, record adjusted EPS and record cash flow for both Q4 and FY24 and raised its quarterly dividend by 6.5%, or 1c/share. It ended the year with US$134.4m more net cash on its balance after its contingent payment to Salobo was delayed into FY25. We have upgraded our forecasts for FY25 very slightly. However, after a quarter in which production outstripped sales by a material amount in Q4 (against the historical trend), there is also the potential for an accelerated ‘flush through’ effect of production into sales earlier than normal in the current year.


JAKK: Being More Realistic in Uncertain Times; Reiterate Buy, $40 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating and $40 price target, and updating our projections after meeting with JAKKS management.
  • We note since our last publication, the U.S. government has placed an additional round of 10% tariffs on China, JAKKS main manufacturing supplier.
  • Further, given the current uncertain economic environment and worries over consumer spending, we believe the company’s key non-movie driven top line growth drivers will continue at a measured pace.

Wheaton Precious Metals — Q424/FY24 results

By Edison Investment Research

Wheaton’s adjusted EPS for Q424 exceeded our prior expectations by 1.9%, largely due to better average realised prices for its precious metals. As a consequence, it recorded record revenue, record adjusted EPS and record cash flow for both Q4 and FY24 and raised its quarterly dividend by 6.5%, or 1c/share. It ended the year with US$134.4m more net cash on its balance after its contingent payment to Salobo was delayed into FY25. We have upgraded our forecasts for FY25 very slightly. However, after a quarter in which production outstripped sales by a material amount in Q4 (against the historical trend), there is also the potential for an accelerated ‘flush through’ effect of production into sales earlier than normal in the current year.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief China: Canvest Environmental Protection Group, OneConnect Financial Technology, China Mobile, Tencent Music, Tencent, Xiaomi Corp, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Vesync, Li Auto , Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Canvest (1381 HK): Get Involved
  • Ping An’s Strategic Buyout of OneConnect: Navigating Shareholder Approval and Financial Implications Amidst Declining Performance
  • China Mobile (941 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights
  • Tencent Music (TME, 1698 HK): 4Q24, Historical Margins Better than Game Time
  • Tencent Earnings: Implied Vs Realized Price Changes and a Post Earnings Pattern
  • Xiaomi (1810 HK): 4Q24, Much Better than Expected, But Vehicle Still Overvalued
  • Asian Equities: Keep an Eye on These Earnings Inflections
  • Vesync (2148 HK): What Did the FY24 Results Tell?
  • [Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Target Price Change]: Still No Convinced on a 2025 Turnaround
  • Nanshan Aluminium IPO: Orphaned Security with Margin Risk


Canvest (1381 HK): Get Involved

By David Blennerhassett

  • After SAFE gave the green light on the 19th Feb, I estimated only a week was required to secure the (strangely) outstanding internal guarantees. It took a frustrating three-and-a-half weeks.
  • Nevertheless, all pre-cons are now done. Canvest Environmental (1381 HK)‘s Scheme Document is expected to be dispatched or before the 25th April. 
  • Assuming the Scheme gets up – and it will – expect payment around the 20th June. This is done.

Ping An’s Strategic Buyout of OneConnect: Navigating Shareholder Approval and Financial Implications Amidst Declining Performance

By Special Situation Investments

  • OneConnect received a non-binding acquisition proposal from Ping An Group at $7.98/ADS, requiring 75% shareholder approval.
  • Ping An acquired OneConnect’s virtual banking division for $119m and terminated its cloud services contract in 2024.
  • The buyout is financially attractive for Ping An, acquiring OCFT at net cash levels, with a US$100m consideration.

China Mobile (941 HK): Expected Move on Profit Announcement and Option Insights

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • China Mobile (941 HK) / China Mobile (600941 CH) will release 2024 results on Thursday 20 March 2025. 
  • Historically, the stock shows minimal post-earnings volatility, with rare exceptions. Options markets project moderate movement. Opportunities exist for investors with strong directional conviction.
  • Given China Mobile’s recent history of dividend increases and strong stock performance, a significant dividend boost is possible.

Tencent Music (TME, 1698 HK): 4Q24, Historical Margins Better than Game Time

By Ming Lu

  • TME’s revenue continued to grow in 4Q24, as shrinking game business became insignificant.
  • The operating margin reached its historical high, which means music’s margin is high than game’s.
  • We believe the stock price will be double at the end of 2025.

Tencent Earnings: Implied Vs Realized Price Changes and a Post Earnings Pattern

By John Ley

  • We take a detailed look at the implied earnings move priced into Tencent options compared to historical outcomes.
  • Post-Earnings price movements are analyzed to assess directional tendencies and magnitude based on earnings beats and misses.
  • An interesting post-earnings pattern emerges, with an options strategy outlined.

Xiaomi (1810 HK): 4Q24, Much Better than Expected, But Vehicle Still Overvalued

By Ming Lu

  • In 4Q24, all business lines grew even faster than we expected in the preview note.
  • We are confident in its revenue growth and operating margin in 2025.
  • We however still believe the market overvalues its electric vehicle business.

Asian Equities: Keep an Eye on These Earnings Inflections

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Change in earnings estimate directions, especially when estimates start increasing after a long period of decline, are what we call “inflections”. These, we believe, are the strongest share price catalysts. 
  • We identify nine market-sectors across Asia ex Japan exhibiting upward earnings inflections. Four are from financials, two from telecoms and one each from utilities, consumer durables and industrials.
  • These market-sectors are from HK/China (3), Korea (1), ASEAN (5). Financials’ domination indicates that a broader Asian macroeconomic recovery could be under way. Eight companies are primarily driving the upgrades.

Vesync (2148 HK): What Did the FY24 Results Tell?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • While Vesync (2148 HK)‘s net profit grew 20.1% in FY24, there is a marked slowdown in 2H24 (+7.4%) vs. 1H24 (+37.5%), suggesting increased operating pressure. 
  • North American sales slowed to 10.7% growth in 2H24, from 13% in 1H24. The deteriorating financial and operating performance affirmed that privatisation is an exit opportunity.
  • Its PER discount (on privatiation price) to peers has widened to 35-38%, compared with 25-30% in Dec. Its US exposure makes it unable to reap benefits from China market stimulus.

[Li Auto Inc. (LI US, SELL, TP US$20) Target Price Change]: Still No Convinced on a 2025 Turnaround

By Eric Wen

  • Li Auto (LI) reported C4Q24 revenue 2.1%/in-line vs. estimate/consensus, and non-GAAP net income is 8.4%/10.3% vs. our estimate/consensus, thanks to OPEX savings which we believe may not be sustainable
  • We cut 2025 vehicle delivery estimates by 7% and slashed net income forecasts by 33% due to delayed model launches and intensified competition
  • We cut LI’s TP from US$25 to US$20 and keep at SELL.

Nanshan Aluminium IPO: Orphaned Security with Margin Risk

By Nicholas Tan

  • Nanshan Aluminium International Holdings (NAI HK)  is looking to raise up to US$358m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • NA is a leading high-quality alumina manufacturer in Southeast Asia.  The firm sources bauxite domestically in Indonesia and utilizes low-temperature Bayer process.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss latest industry dynamics, conduct a quick peer comparison and discuss the company’s valuation.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Japan: Proto Corp, EcoNaviSta , JX Advanced Metals, SanBio Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Activism Japan] Proto Corp (4298 JP) – Kaname Capital Files an Injunction? Bold Strategy, Cotton…
  • EcoNavista (5585 JP) – Takeover By Eisai (4523)
  • JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Trading Debut
  • JX Advanced Metals IPO Trading
  • SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP): Full-year FY01/25 flash update
  • SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP): Losses Narrow; AKUUGO Upbeat on Successful Commercial Runs; FY26 Key


[Activism Japan] Proto Corp (4298 JP) – Kaname Capital Files an Injunction? Bold Strategy, Cotton…

By Travis Lundy

  • Late on the 17th, Proto Corp (4298 JP) released a filing to the TSE saying activist-ish investor and objector to the current MBO, Kaname Capital, had filed an injunction.
  • The injunction suit against two directors says procedures were unfair and the decision violated the duty of due care. They ask the Court to rule the directors halt support and…
  • …that the MBO actor YOKOYAMA Hiroichi not terminate the offer on 21 March 2025. Injunction filings against directors for Tender Offers are rare for a reason.

EcoNavista (5585 JP) – Takeover By Eisai (4523)

By Travis Lundy

  • EcoNaviSta (5585 JP) has a couple of interesting product lines and platforms. That makes it attractive, and scalable. Synergies to a big buyer are reasonably obvious.
  • Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) is that big buyer, having decided to be interested last summer. I could imagine others could be interested too. The tech has uses.
  • For the moment, it is a high EV/Revenue bid on an interesting small company. The chairman, cross-holders, directors, and a couple of financial institutions own 66+%. But…

JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


JX Advanced Metals IPO Trading

By Douglas Kim

  • JX Advanced Metals raised 438.6 billion yen (US$3 billion) on its IPO offering after pricing the IPO at 820 yen per share, valuing the company at 761.3 billion yen. 
  • Our base case valuation of JX Advanced Metals is price per share of 863 yen, based on P/E of 9.9x using our estimated net profit of 81 billion yen (2026E).
  • Therefore, we would sell into strength if the share price of JX Advanced Metals rises to the 863 yen to 1,044 yen per share.

SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP): Full-year FY01/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • SanBio reported no operating revenue for FY01/25, with an operating loss of JPY3.5bn, narrowing from JPY4.5bn.
  • Non-operating income was JPY628mn, primarily from foreign-exchange gains, while non-operating expenses totaled JPY134mn.
  • The company expects no operating revenue for FY01/26, forecasting operating expenses of JPY3.5bn, focusing on AKUUGO® approval.

SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP): Losses Narrow; AKUUGO Upbeat on Successful Commercial Runs; FY26 Key

By Tina Banerjee

  • During FY25, SanBio Co Ltd (4592 JP) did not generate any revenue and incurred an operating expense of ¥3.5B, down 23% YoY.
  • The company successfully completed two commercial production runs to accumulate inventories in preparation for launch of Akuugo. The earliest possible timing for shipment is assumed to be Q2FY26.
  • SanBio has a cash runway through FY26. Further, in March, the company has raised funds of ¥2.1B through third party placement.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief India: Kolte Patil Developers, Coromandel International, Fujiyama Power Systems Ltd, Bajaj Finserv , Anthem Biosciences and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Blackstone’s ₹1,800 Crore Residential Bet on Kolte-Patil
  • Coromandel’s Strategic Play for NACL Industries: Bottom of the Agrochem Cycle Bargain?
  • Fujiyama Power Systems Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Bajaj Finserv Acquires Full Control of Bajaj Allianz Life & General Insurance
  • Anthem Biosciences Pre-IPO – The Positives – Portfolio Expansion, Increasing Capacity to Fuel Growth


Blackstone’s ₹1,800 Crore Residential Bet on Kolte-Patil

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Blackstone (BX US) is investing INR 1,800 crore to acquire a 66% stake in Kolte Patil Developers (KPDL IN), marking its first big move into India’s residential real estate market.
  • This deal signals rising institutional interest in India’s housing sector and sets the stage for a potential residential REIT, similar to Blackstone’s office REIT playbook.
  • The residential segment, long seen as fragmented and informal, may now see valuation re-ratings, increased M&A activity, and formalization driven by global capital.

Coromandel’s Strategic Play for NACL Industries: Bottom of the Agrochem Cycle Bargain?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Coromandel International (CRIN IN),a key Murugappa Group company, acquired a 53% controlling stake in NACL Industries for INR 820Crs on March 12, 2025 at INR 76.70 per share.
  • NACL Industries is a Hyderabad-based agrochemical firm with manufacturing units, a diverse product portfolio, and technical export capabilities, including a presence in contract manufacturing.
  • With this merger at decent valuation, Murugappa group(which is known for efficient capital allocation) certainly make it more efficient and value accretive for their business. 

Fujiyama Power Systems Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Fujiyama Power Systems Ltd (1742651D IN) (FPSL) is planning to raise about US$138m through its upcoming India IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Motilal, SBI.
  • FPSL was established in 1996. The company specializes in solar panel and inverter manufacturing, covering on-grid, hybrid, and off-grid solutions, along with lead acid and lithium-ion battery production. 
  • As per CARE Report, it was the 1st Indian company to develop an SMT-based inverter with a single card in 2000. 

Bajaj Finserv Acquires Full Control of Bajaj Allianz Life & General Insurance

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Bajaj Finserv (BJFIN IN) has acquired Allianz’s 26% stake in both insurance JVs for INR 24,180 crore, gaining full control of Bajaj Allianz Life and General Insurance.
  • This unlocks platform-wide integration across lending, wealth, and insurance, setting Bajaj up as a full-stack financial services powerhouse with total strategic control.
  • With valuations set and consolidation likely, India’s insurance sector enters a new era- where scale, tech, and single ownership will drive future leadership.

Anthem Biosciences Pre-IPO – The Positives – Portfolio Expansion, Increasing Capacity to Fuel Growth

By Akshat Shah

  • Anthem Biosciences (1234D IN) is looking to raise up to US$400m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Anthem Biosciences (ABS) is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation (CRDMO) with fully integrated operations spanning drug discovery, development, and manufacturing.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars