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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 07
0

Daily Brief ESG: President Yoon’s Impeachment: Impact on Korean Capital Markets and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • President Yoon’s Impeachment: Impact on Korean Capital Markets
  • Political Problems Are Preventing a Solution to the Problem of Declining Birthrates

President Yoon’s Impeachment: Impact on Korean Capital Markets

By SUSTINVEST

  • On April 4, 2025 (KST), South Korea’s Constitutional Court formally removed former President Yoon Suk Yeol from office in accordance with the constitutional order.
  • This decision is expected to significantly reduce political uncertainty. However, external factors such as the U.S. government’s reciprocal tariff policies will continue to have substantial impact on Korean markets.
  • June’s presidential election favors government change. Global investors should watch the Democratic Party’s capital market reform proposals.

Political Problems Are Preventing a Solution to the Problem of Declining Birthrates

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Eliminating income limits on child allowances seems to be the right policy because the wealthier families have more children. However, it lacks viewpoints toward the growing number of unmarried people.
  • It seems effective to solve the problem of the growing income disparity and the child-rearing/housework being disproportionately placed on women, and taking appropriate measures for those who desire diverse lifestyles.
  • Policies don’t reach the ever-increasing number of singles. Rather than solutions to declining birthrate, priority is given to policies that distribute money to those who are more certain to vote.

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Apr 07
0

Daily Brief ECM: Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case
  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Tech IPO: Growth Fueled By Volume
  • ECM Weekly (7 Apr 2025) – CATL, Maynilad, Chagee, Lotte Logistics, Sigenergy, Duality, Wuxi XDC

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
  • In Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on unsustainable growth rates, pressure on KPIs, signs of margin pressure, increasing S&M expenses and weakening forward growth indicators.

Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Tech IPO: Growth Fueled By Volume

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies (JSZENERGY CH)  (JZBT) is a lithium-ion battery manufacturer in China who is focused on developing a diverse portfolio of market-driven and technology-fueled battery products.
  • The company has filed for an IPO on the HKEx and plans to raise proceeds of around US$130m through the issue of 121m shares.
  • The company’s earnings have seen strong growth over the years driven by its LFP battery products and fall in lithium carbonate prices have helped turn around profitability.

ECM Weekly (7 Apr 2025) – CATL, Maynilad, Chagee, Lotte Logistics, Sigenergy, Duality, Wuxi XDC

By Sumeet Singh

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Apr 07
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Cratered and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Cratered
  • Japan Morning Connection: Trump Panic Tactic Working Hook, Line, and Sinker

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Cratered

By Mark Chadwick

  • The S&P 500 sank nearly 6%, capping its worst week since 2020
  • About 90% of TSE Prime Market stocks declined on Friday, with semiconductor and tech stocks, particularly hard hit.
  • Nintendo postponed U.S. preorders for its Switch 2 gaming device, originally scheduled for April 9, 2025, to assess potential impacts of Trump’s new tariffs.

Japan Morning Connection: Trump Panic Tactic Working Hook, Line, and Sinker

By Andrew Jackson

  • Big drops for futures and commodity markets to start the week, so expect heavy selling across the board to start.
  • Vietnam signalling willingness to cut US tariffs sending related footwear/clothing names who manufacture in country sharply higher.
  • Nintendo cancelling its US Switch2 pre-sales sending ADR’s lower only to snap back as market remains bullish on new console.

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Apr 07
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Merger Arb Mondays (07 Apr) – Seven & I and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (07 Apr) – Seven & I, Makino, HKBN, OneConnect, Dada, Insignia, Domain, Dropsuite
  • Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) Gets an NBIO from Ki Corp & PSA
  • [Alert] Sell Howard Hughes (HHH)
  • Weekly Update (HAVAS, ANGI)

Merger Arb Mondays (07 Apr) – Seven & I, Makino, HKBN, OneConnect, Dada, Insignia, Domain, Dropsuite

By Arun George

Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) Gets an NBIO from Ki Corp & PSA

By Brian Freitas

  • Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) was demerged from Abacus Property Group in 2023 and the stock has traded in a range since listing.
  • Now, Ki Corp and Public Storage (PSA US) have made a conditional and non-binding proposal to take Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) private at A$1.47/share.
  • The offer is a 27% premium to the last close of the stock and is higher than the price that the stock has traded at since listing.

[Alert] Sell Howard Hughes (HHH)

By Richard Howe

  • Just a quick update: I’ll be selling my position in Howard Hughes (HHH) to fund a purchase of Havas (HAVAS).

  • Howard Hughes remains an attractive company that isn’t directly impacted by potential tariffs—aside from broader recession-related risks.

  • However, with Pershing Square attempting to take the company private, I don’t feel I have a clear edge in the current situation.

Weekly Update (HAVAS, ANGI)

By Richard Howe

  • This week, IAC Inc (IAC) spun off Angi Inc (ANGI). The first day of trading was April 1st.

  • Angi operates the largest digital marketplace for home services in the U.S., connecting homeowners with contractors across Angi’s Ads and Leads platform (formerly HomeAdvisor/Angie’s List) and Services (pre-priced jobs fulfilled via Angi’s network)

  • ANGI has fallen sharply despite no tariff exposure.

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Apr 07
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for the US Tariffs! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for the US Tariffs!
  • Komeri (8218) Rare, Tariff-Proof Domestic Growth Idea at a Steep Discount
  • HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener: Tariff Drag On The Sector
  • SK Bioscience (302440 KS): New Vaccine Trial and ITD Turnaround To Improve Long-Term Outlook
  • CKI (1038 HK): It Is the Best Time
  • Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization – Updates on Valuation Outlook Based on 2024 Results
  • Zuiko Corp (6279 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Brace Yourself for the US Tariffs!

By Patrick Liao

  • We aim at nearly 0% growth QoQ for Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US)‘s revenue in 2Q25, but US tariff can be a changing factor since April, 2025.
  • Taiwan Financial Supervisory Commission is announcing on April 6th, 2025 with three temporary methods to prevent a sudden slump of Taiwan stock market today.  
  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR (TSM US) is taking about 39.2% of Taiwan stock market value, which is the single largest stock in Taiwan.  

Komeri (8218) Rare, Tariff-Proof Domestic Growth Idea at a Steep Discount

By Michael Allen

  • Komeri plans to expand their addressable market by 75% and to double their current market share to 21%.
  • Same store sales of the company’s Pro Stores rose an average of more than 7% in the past 8 quarters, and selling area is expanding at more than 25% annually.
  • Yet Komeri trades at just 11x earnings, compared to about 16x for Topix and 18x for the median retail stock.

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener: Tariff Drag On The Sector

By Sameer Taneja

  • Tariff introductions in Vietnam were 46%, PRC 34%, Bangladesh 37%, Indonesia 32%, etc, have rocked the textile complex, and share prices have reacted negatively. 
  • The companies with the maximum revenue exposure to the US market are Stella International (1836 HK), with 47%, Crystal International (2232 HK), with 38%, and Lever Style (1346 HK), with 58%.
  • We anticipate that the negative sentiment will continue to hinder the sector until a reasonable negotiation occurs. In the meantime, there are no beneficiaries in this trade war.

SK Bioscience (302440 KS): New Vaccine Trial and ITD Turnaround To Improve Long-Term Outlook

By Tina Banerjee

  • SK Bioscience (302440 KS) has initiated phase 3 trial of Sanofi-partnered pneumococcal conjugate vaccine candidate in Australia. This year, Phase 3 trial will be initiated in U.S., Korea, and EU.
  • This year, SK Bioscience has initiated global Phase 1/2 trials of mRNA Japanese Encephalitis vaccine candidate in Australia and New Zealand. The company aims to secure interim results by 2026.
  • ITD Biologika is targeting for a 17% revenue CAGR during 2024–2028. The company aims to achieve EBITDA margin of 25%+ by 2028 and become IPO ready.

CKI (1038 HK): It Is the Best Time

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)‘s share price should pick up as its portfolio of non-US infrastructure assets will become increasingly attractive.
  • Its assets will benefit from re-pricing as global inflation rates trend higher. Meanwhile, it will gain from the translation of foreign earnings back to HK$.
  • The secured 5.7% and 6.2% dividend yield for FY25F and FY26F makes CKI appealing, especially given a track record of 28 consecutive years of dividend hike.

Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization – Updates on Valuation Outlook Based on 2024 Results

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • 2024 results is significantly below expectations. While revenue had negative growth, SG&A expenses remain high.Coupled with net fair value losses after tax on investment properties, we saw ugly net profit.
  • As consumer confidence won’t improve in short term, coupled with competition/corporate strategy lag, we adjusted next three-year growth based on 2024 results. This may increase the success rate of privatization.
  • Reasonable valuation of Goldlion is 9-14x P/E due to short-term headwinds.If performance picks up due to effective expansion in online channels or popular products launched, P/E may improve to 12-15x.

Zuiko Corp (6279 JP): Full-year FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • FY02/25 revenue was JPY20.0bn (-8.2% YoY), with a net loss of JPY788mn, impacted by declining sales in Japan and China.
  • FY02/26 revenue is projected at JPY22.0bn (+10.3% YoY), with expected operating profit of JPY1.0bn and EPS of JPY31.0.
  • ZUIKO’s medium-term plan targets FY02/28 revenue of JPY30bn+, with JPY8.0bn from new businesses, and OPM of 8.1%.

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Apr 07
0

Daily Brief Macro: A Big Bear and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • A Big Bear, or Just A Plain Vanilla Correction?
  • Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” – Part 2:  Trading Opportunities.
  • US Embraces Modern Mercantilism Via Higher Tariffs to Boost Capital Accumulation
  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

A Big Bear, or Just A Plain Vanilla Correction?

By Cam Hui

  • The latest Trump tariff announcements have sparked a risk-off stampede.
  • Even though the macro and fundamental backdrop is deteriorating, sellers are becoming exhausted and a relief rally should materialize in the coming week.
  • Both the top-down outlook and technical structure of the stock market argue for a bear market, and any rally should be interpreted as a countertrend move.

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” – Part 2:  Trading Opportunities.

By Rikki Malik

  • Act 1 of the US bear market is likely complete, with diverging price signals from stocks, bonds and the dollar.
  • This will be a rebound bounce to sell into, as we are not going back to previous highs.
  • Looking at companies servicing high-income consumers is a good hunting ground for shorts.

US Embraces Modern Mercantilism Via Higher Tariffs to Boost Capital Accumulation

By Said Desaque

  • President Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs has shocked equity markets, creating comparisons with President Nixon’s shock decision in 1971 to suspend the dollar’s convertibility into gold.    
  • Markets initially betted that Europe would enjoy faster growth due to the arrival of tariffs and higher defence spending, but Europe still remains heavily reliant on net exports, particularly Germany. 
  • The US will win a trade war versus Europe due to a large loss external demand, while the US has joined China in pursuing modern mercantilism to enhance sovereign power. 

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

By Sameer Taneja

  • Executive Chairman John Welborn presented the investment case for Fenix Resources (FEX AU) at the Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong on March 26th/27th.  
  • The company’s imminent production of 4 million tons of iron ore (~$100 USD/ton), is projected to generate AUD 200 million in operating cash flow, matching its current market capitalization.
  • The company briefly touched on its M&A opportunity with Coziron Resources (CZR AU), which is expected to add 40 million tons of reserves and further increase production. 

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Apr 07
0

Daily Brief Australia: Treasury Wine Estates, Abacus Storage King, Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU): Passive Selling Adds to Tariff Woes
  • Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) Gets an NBIO from Ki Corp & PSA
  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU): Passive Selling Adds to Tariff Woes

By Brian Freitas

  • Given its portfolio mix, Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU) does not expect a material impact on its business from the blanket 10% tariff on all goods imported from Australia/New Zealand.
  • However, there is a high probability that Treasury Wine Estates (TWE AU) will be deleted from a global index in May and that will lead to large selling from passives.
  • There has been an increase in short interest and an increase in other positioning. Trading will be volatile but there could be a downward bias over the next few weeks.

Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) Gets an NBIO from Ki Corp & PSA

By Brian Freitas

  • Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) was demerged from Abacus Property Group in 2023 and the stock has traded in a range since listing.
  • Now, Ki Corp and Public Storage (PSA US) have made a conditional and non-binding proposal to take Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) private at A$1.47/share.
  • The offer is a 27% premium to the last close of the stock and is higher than the price that the stock has traded at since listing.

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

By Sameer Taneja

  • Executive Chairman John Welborn presented the investment case for Fenix Resources (FEX AU) at the Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong on March 26th/27th.  
  • The company’s imminent production of 4 million tons of iron ore (~$100 USD/ton), is projected to generate AUD 200 million in operating cash flow, matching its current market capitalization.
  • The company briefly touched on its M&A opportunity with Coziron Resources (CZR AU), which is expected to add 40 million tons of reserves and further increase production. 

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Apr 07
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, SK Bioscience , Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • President Yoon’s Impeachment: Impact on Korean Capital Markets
  • SK Bioscience (302440 KS): New Vaccine Trial and ITD Turnaround To Improve Long-Term Outlook
  • Kospi Index Options Weekly (Mar 31 – Apr 4): Rising Vol, Local and Global Political Undercurrents

President Yoon’s Impeachment: Impact on Korean Capital Markets

By SUSTINVEST

  • On April 4, 2025 (KST), South Korea’s Constitutional Court formally removed former President Yoon Suk Yeol from office in accordance with the constitutional order.
  • This decision is expected to significantly reduce political uncertainty. However, external factors such as the U.S. government’s reciprocal tariff policies will continue to have substantial impact on Korean markets.
  • June’s presidential election favors government change. Global investors should watch the Democratic Party’s capital market reform proposals.

SK Bioscience (302440 KS): New Vaccine Trial and ITD Turnaround To Improve Long-Term Outlook

By Tina Banerjee

  • SK Bioscience (302440 KS) has initiated phase 3 trial of Sanofi-partnered pneumococcal conjugate vaccine candidate in Australia. This year, Phase 3 trial will be initiated in U.S., Korea, and EU.
  • This year, SK Bioscience has initiated global Phase 1/2 trials of mRNA Japanese Encephalitis vaccine candidate in Australia and New Zealand. The company aims to secure interim results by 2026.
  • ITD Biologika is targeting for a 17% revenue CAGR during 2024–2028. The company aims to achieve EBITDA margin of 25%+ by 2028 and become IPO ready.

Kospi Index Options Weekly (Mar 31 – Apr 4): Rising Vol, Local and Global Political Undercurrents

By John Ley

  • Volatility percentiles are flashing red, and we explore what recent price action could signal for the week ahead.
  • Implied vol rose meaningfully, approaching historical extremes, with more pressure likely as the week begins.
  • Options hedge adjustments are discussed following a strong move in both price and vol.

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Apr 07
0

Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 01 – 04): Lowest Implied Vol Amid a Global Meltdown

Nifty Index Options Weekly (Apr 01 – 04): Lowest Implied Vol Amid a Global Meltdown

By John Ley

  • Nifty remains the global market with the lowest implied volatility and has been outperforming its peers in this sell off.
  • We assess where Nifty is likely to open on Monday and the expected impact on implied vol and discuss whether hedging should be considered. 
  • We highlight the absence of a flight-to-quality bid in this global meltdown and what that could mean for relative returns vs. the SP500.

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Apr 07
0

Daily Brief United States: Howard Hughes Holdings , ANGI Homeservices and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • [Alert] Sell Howard Hughes (HHH)
  • Weekly Update (HAVAS, ANGI)

[Alert] Sell Howard Hughes (HHH)

By Richard Howe

  • Just a quick update: I’ll be selling my position in Howard Hughes (HHH) to fund a purchase of Havas (HAVAS).

  • Howard Hughes remains an attractive company that isn’t directly impacted by potential tariffs—aside from broader recession-related risks.

  • However, with Pershing Square attempting to take the company private, I don’t feel I have a clear edge in the current situation.

Weekly Update (HAVAS, ANGI)

By Richard Howe

  • This week, IAC Inc (IAC) spun off Angi Inc (ANGI). The first day of trading was April 1st.

  • Angi operates the largest digital marketplace for home services in the U.S., connecting homeowners with contractors across Angi’s Ads and Leads platform (formerly HomeAdvisor/Angie’s List) and Services (pre-priced jobs fulfilled via Angi’s network)

  • ANGI has fallen sharply despite no tariff exposure.

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