Smartkarma Daily Briefs

There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.

HKBN (1310 HK): China Mobile’s Offer Now Open

By David Blennerhassett

On the 1st August, HKBN Ltd (1310 HK) announced China Mobile (941 HK) had satisfied all pre-cons. The Offer Doc is now out.
The First Close is the 3rd September with payment potentially on or around the 12th September – if the Offer turns unconditional on the First Close.
There is no IFA opinion in this Doc. That will be present in the Response Doc, which is expected to be dispatched on or before the 20th August.

Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

By Sumeet Singh

2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.
Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.
In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.

[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential

By Eric Wen

Luckin reported C2Q25 revenue 9%/11% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP OP 37%/17% higher than our est./cons., driven by the extra demand from food delivery platforms’ promotional campaigns.
As we now expect the food delivery war to persist, we raise Luckin’s C2H25 revenue/OP estimate by 6%/18% and raise the TP to US$45.
Luckin, however, managed margin and expenses well to deliver the profit beat;

Beijing Roborock A/H Listing: Leader in Its Niche but Tariffs and Competition Risks

By Nicholas Tan

Beijing Roborock Technology (688169 CH), a robot vacuum maker, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
It was founded in 2014, backed by Xiaomi, and is a global leader in intelligent home robotics.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation

Innogen, a China-based near-commercial stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CITIC Securities and CICC are the joint sponsors.
In our previous note, we have examined the company’s core product namely efsubaglutide alfa, and updates in various filings.
In this note, we will provide a valuation for the company’s core product.

Vigonvita Life Sciences (旺山旺水) Pre-IPO: Structural Challenges for Commercialization

Vigonvita is looking to raise at least US$100 million via a Hong Kong listing. The book runner is CITIC.
The company refiled its prospectus and dropped VV116, the commercialized COVID-19 anti-viral drug, from its core asset list.
In this note, we look at changes between filings and also further examine the prospect of LV232 and TPN171.

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Compared to competitors, the competitive advantage of Efsubaglutide Alfa is not obvious.The weight loss effect of single target mechanism could be weaker than that of competing dual and triple agonists
Before Innogen filed for listing, some pre-IPO investors chose to transfer the Company’s equity they held at a discount, indicating that these investors lack confidence in the Company’s prospects.
Under the double pressure of a single pipeline and lagging commercialization, pre-IPO valuation of RMB4.65bn is more like a dangerous bubble game.We shared our views on valuation and post-IPO performance.

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Aug 06

Most Read: BASE Inc, BayCurrent Consulting , Royal Gold Inc, Horizon Robotics, King Slide Works, Hoshizaki Corporation, Mirae Asset TIGER Fn Semiconductor Top 10 ETF, Technopro Holdings, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Genting Bhd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation
[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings
[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way
Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows
King Slide Works (2059 TT): Sliding into a Global Index
Hoshizaki Corp (6465 JP): Close Global Index Deletion in August
Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund
[Japan M&A] Nikkei Says Blackstone to Buy TechnoPro Holdings (6028) For “Roughly ¥500bn”
HKEx Consultation Paper (Conclusion) – What Matters for ECM Investors
Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August

Boss Maki Goes Hard on Base (4477) – Interesting Situation

Melco Holdings (6676 JP) chairman Hiroyuki MAKI bought up a 14% stake in BASE Inc (4477 JP) in just under two weeks. It was done quite transparently. He announced daily.
He wants to get to 30% in a Tender Offer. The method, approach, lack of transparency, and similarity to previous situations where he invested has the company wary.
This looks like a Poison Pill case in the offing. It WAS a cheap stock. It is not expensive now. But it is not clear what the endgame is here.

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: Final Liquidity Rankings

The five year data period for the September 2025 Nikkei 225 rebalance is now over (as of 31 July). First obvious news? No Fast Retailing (9983 JP) capping.
That was obvious a couple months ago, and the BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) buying to come has been known for five months.
The Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) Offering last month makes it more likely an ADD than it was in June (when it didn’t replace NTT Data), but not a done deal.

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Sep25 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$400mn One-Way

The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.
This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
There are several expected ADDs/DELs for the September 2025 index rebal event. There will also be flows for the other index members due to capping.

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Index Inclusion & Upweights to Drive US$1bn Inflows

There should be big passive inflows to Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) over the next 6 weeks and that could take the stock higher in the short term.
Southbound Stock Connect investors have bought more than 10% of the Class B shares outstanding since the stock was added to the link a couple of months ago.
Short interest jumped following the Stock Connect inclusion but there has been covering over the last few weeks. Short-term direction for the stock price looks to be higher.

King Slide Works (2059 TT): Sliding into a Global Index

King Slide Works (2059 TT)‘s stock price has more than doubled over the last 4 months and that should result in global index inclusion in August.
King Slide Works (2059 TT) has outperformed its peer group over the last few months and now trades at a big valuation premium.
There has been a lot of short covering, and positioning in the stock appears to be smaller than the estimated passive buying.

Hoshizaki Corp (6465 JP): Close Global Index Deletion in August

Hoshizaki Corporation (6465 JP)‘s stock price has dropped over the last 3 months, and the lower market cap could result in global index deletion in August.
An early cutoff in the review period could result in the stock staying on in the index but that puts it at risk of deletion in November.
There has been an increase in short interest and cumulative excess volume over the last couple of months and that indicates positioning in the stock.

Korea’s Next Policy Momentum Play: Rapid Unfolding of the National Growth Fund

By Sanghyun Park

From a trading view, no confirmed new ETFs under the National Growth Fund yet; market expects existing ETFs to be the main liquidity and sector play tools instead.
Out of the KRW 150tn, ETF flows likely come from the 100tn private pool—conservative case: ~3% (KRW 4.5tn), base case: 5–7%, aggressive: up to 10% (KRW 15tn).
Even conservatively, about KRW 3 trillion could flow into sector ETFs, a signficant AUM boost, mainly concentrated in AI, defense, aerospace, and biotech—driving notable inflow impact.

[Japan M&A] Nikkei Says Blackstone to Buy TechnoPro Holdings (6028) For “Roughly ¥500bn”

There was an article in mid-May saying Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) might be privatised. It is an appropriate candidate. The stock popped 20% immediately, and has since risen another 20%.
Today’s article follows one which came out ~2 weeks ago with non-sourced editorial content suggesting the price might be 20x EBITDA (i.e. a lot higher).
Today, an article says Blackstone will buy the firm for “Roughly ¥500bn” which would be 3% down from yesterday. Beware the Nikkei. Beware expectations.

HKEx Consultation Paper (Conclusion) – What Matters for ECM Investors

The SEHK recently issued an update in response to its consultation paper in December 2025, with new mechanisms proposed for the IPO in the future.
In this note, we summarize the conclusion by HKEx and the rules to be implemented.
We are of the view that overall, the changes will benefit ECM investors with greater certainty in allocations.

Southeast Asia: Potential Global Index Deletions in August

There are 4 stocks listed in Malaysia and Thailand that could be deleted from passive portfolios in August.
There is a fair bit to sell in the stocks with over US$70m flow and between 10.7-44.5x ADV.
The positioning in most stocks does not cover the estimated passive selling and there could be more selling over the next few weeks.

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Aug 06

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: AEM Holdings: Another CEO and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

AEM Holdings: Another CEO, Another Kitchen Sink?
Ecopro BM: Another Major Rechargeable Battery Play With A Sharp Improvement In Earnings in 2Q 2025
Unicharm Indonesia : Value Proposition
Intel. Was Tesla’s Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?
[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential
Nextracker Bets Big on AI & Robotics—Is This the Future of Solar Infrastructure?
All You Need to Know About Anil Ambani’s 17000Cr Loan Fraud Case
July’s Insider Playbook – Buying Activity In 14 Small Cap Companies
Electro Optic Systems — Major contract announcement
Korean Banks; Keep Buy on Hana (086790 KS), Take Profits on Woori (316140 KS)

AEM Holdings: Another CEO, Another Kitchen Sink?

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

AEM (AEM SP) announced a new CEO, Samer Kabbani, would take over with immediate effect.
The previous CEO, Amy Leong, had only been in the job for about a year. The rapid change of CEO does not instill confidence going into 2Q25 results next week.
New CEO’s frequently kitchen sink upon their appointment, will Samer continue this trend?

Ecopro BM: Another Major Rechargeable Battery Play With A Sharp Improvement In Earnings in 2Q 2025

By Douglas Kim

Ecopro BM reported net profit of 34.3 billion won (up 397% YoY and TB YoY in 2Q25). Profits from its Indonesian investment also contributed to earnings, reaching 40.5 billion won.
The European EV market started to turn around in 2Q 2025 driven by OEM new car launches and customer inventory normalization compared to the end of 2024.
There are increasing signs of a positive turnaround at Ecopro BM. The company’s excellent results in 2Q 2025 are likely to result in higher earnings revisions by the consensus.

Unicharm Indonesia : Value Proposition

By Punit Khanna

Unicharm Indonesia looks very attractive on the basis os excess cash on its books and cash flow it generates. Trades at <1x EV?EBDITA
Its number 1 diaper and feminine pads company which is facing earnings headwinds
Any plans by the management to return cash, consumer demand recovery can lead to rerating in the stock.

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Intel. Was Tesla’s Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?

By William Keating

Tesla & Samsung just inked an eight year, $16.5 billion foundry deal set to run from July 24, 2025 through December 31, 2033.
Had Intel snagged this deal, it would have been a lifesaver for the company. Not getting it likely triggered the updated “Risk Factors” section in their latest 10K.
This isn’t Intel playing politics, there’s no point. It’s LBT laying it on the line for investors. Continued investment in 14A is no longer a given. It’s that simple…

[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, BUY, TP US$45) TP Change]:Solid Execution Showcases Consolidator Potential

By Eric Wen

Luckin reported C2Q25 revenue 9%/11% higher than our est./cons., and non-GAAP OP 37%/17% higher than our est./cons., driven by the extra demand from food delivery platforms’ promotional campaigns.
As we now expect the food delivery war to persist, we raise Luckin’s C2H25 revenue/OP estimate by 6%/18% and raise the TP to US$45.
Luckin, however, managed margin and expenses well to deliver the profit beat;

Nextracker Bets Big on AI & Robotics—Is This the Future of Solar Infrastructure?

By Baptista Research

Nextracker, a provider of advanced solar tracking systems, reported its financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, showcasing both strengths and underlying challenges.
The company achieved a significant year-over-year revenue increase of 20% to $864 million, buoyed by strong global demand and robust operational execution.
Adjusted EBITDA similarly grew by 23% to $215 million, representing an EBITDA margin of 25%, a 100 basis point improvement from the prior year.

All You Need to Know About Anil Ambani’s 17000Cr Loan Fraud Case

By Nimish Maheshwari

Anil Ambani is being investigated by the ED for a massive INR 17,000 crore loan fraud case involving Reliance Group companies.
The case centers on allegations of fund diversion and financial irregularities related to loans from a consortium of nearly 20 public and private banks.
The investigation is being conducted under the PMLA, which involves even arrest and a parallel probe by SEBI into alleged fund diversion by Reliance Infrastructure.

July’s Insider Playbook – Buying Activity In 14 Small Cap Companies

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

July 2025 saw significant buying by promoters and key management in 14 companies, signaling insider confidence across diverse sectors.
Engineering, Pharmaceuticals, Consumer, Infrastructure, and Financials stood out with consistent insider purchases.
Notable Companies:Shoppers Stop (SHOP IN),Anup Engineering (ANUP IN), D.B. Corp Ltd (DBCL IN) , La Opala Rg Ltd (LOG IN) , and Paisalo Digital (PAISALO IN) saw aggressive accumulation.

Electro Optic Systems — Major contract announcement

By Edison Investment Research

EOS Optic Systems has announced a landmark order. The group has been developing High Energy Laser Weapons (HELW) systems to expand on its traditional kinetic systems for a number of years. The €71.4m order provides a clear validation of the group’s strategy and technology as well as an income stream for the next three years.

Korean Banks; Keep Buy on Hana (086790 KS), Take Profits on Woori (316140 KS)

By Victor Galliano

We stick with Hana Financial as our sole buy in Korean banks; even though it does not top our proprietary scorecard, it remains attractively valued and its returns are improving
We downgrade Woori to a neutral from a buy, with Woori now trading at a PBV premium to Hana; historically, this has been an indicator of future poor share performance
KB Financial ranks top in our scorecard; KB is one watch, but remains a neutral due to limited appeal in terms of valuation

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Aug 06

Daily Brief United States: Microstrategy Inc Cl A, Intel Corp, NEXTracker , Beta Bionics, Smithfield Foods, NextDecade Corp, Base Oil and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

S&P500 September 2025 Initial Forecast: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Emerges Post-Earnings
Intel. Was Tesla’s Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?
Nextracker Bets Big on AI & Robotics—Is This the Future of Solar Infrastructure?
Beta Bionic Inc (BBNX) Six Month Summary: From Breakout to Breakdown
Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) Six Month Summary: Rough Start with a Resilient IPO Turnaround
Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on NextDecade (NEXT) – August 4, 2025
Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 August
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 4 August

S&P500 September 2025 Initial Forecast: MicroStrategy (MSTR) Emerges Post-Earnings

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US) became eligible for inclusion in S&P500 following its quarterly earnings of $10bn on 31 July.
Robinhood Markets (HOOD US), Microstrategy Inc Cl A (MSTR US), and AppLovin (APP US) are the main candidates for addition from TMI at the September 2025 review.
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc (IBKR US) and Emcor Group Inc (EME US) are the main candidates for addition from MidCap at the September 2025 review.

Intel. Was Tesla’s Deal With Samsung The Death Knell For IFS?

By William Keating

Tesla & Samsung just inked an eight year, $16.5 billion foundry deal set to run from July 24, 2025 through December 31, 2033.
Had Intel snagged this deal, it would have been a lifesaver for the company. Not getting it likely triggered the updated “Risk Factors” section in their latest 10K.
This isn’t Intel playing politics, there’s no point. It’s LBT laying it on the line for investors. Continued investment in 14A is no longer a given. It’s that simple…

Nextracker Bets Big on AI & Robotics—Is This the Future of Solar Infrastructure?

By Baptista Research

Nextracker, a provider of advanced solar tracking systems, reported its financial performance for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, showcasing both strengths and underlying challenges.
The company achieved a significant year-over-year revenue increase of 20% to $864 million, buoyed by strong global demand and robust operational execution.
Adjusted EBITDA similarly grew by 23% to $215 million, representing an EBITDA margin of 25%, a 100 basis point improvement from the prior year.

Beta Bionic Inc (BBNX) Six Month Summary: From Breakout to Breakdown

The company priced an upsized 12.0 million share offering at $17.00—above the initial range—and opened 29.4% higher at $22.00.
In March, amid broader sector weakness across the medical device space, the stock broke below its IPO price.
The company did report better than expected sales in its most recent quarterly report last week with guidance raised giving long term investors more confidence in its execution moving forward.

Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) Six Month Summary: Rough Start with a Resilient IPO Turnaround

The company priced 26.08 million shares at $20.00—a reduced offering from the original 34.8 million shares and below the initial $23–$27 range.
Since then, Smithfield has staged a steady and impressive climb. On Monday, shares reached a new post-IPO high of $25.22—a 26% gain from the issue price.
A lesson can be learned: when the market punishes early entries, strong fundamentals and time can still pave the road to recovery.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on NextDecade (NEXT) – August 4, 2025

By Water Tower Research

Last week, the WTR Sustainable Index was down 5.7% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.4%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 4.2%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 2.2%).
Energy Technology (40% of the index) was down 5.2%, while Transportation Solutions (33% of the index) was down 5.0%, Climate Tech and Clean Tech (20% of the index) was down 4.2%, and Climate Tech Mining and Processing (7% of the index) was down 17.3%.
Top 10 Performers: NXHSF, LISMF, KARX, AMSC, GNRC, AWLIF, NWTN, TPCS, CPSH, GRDAF

Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 4 August

US base oils demand likely to stay lower amid signs of healthy availability of supply.
Healthy availability of supply, buyers’ sufficient stocks and seasonal slowdown in consumption incentivize buyers to hold back.
Ongoing fall in US base oils export prices adds to signs of weaker domestic demand.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 4 August

Asia’s Group II heavy-grade base oils price-premium to gasoil holds steady at lower level, close to levels in Q4 2024.
Lower heavy-grade base oils margins and falling regional cargo price point to weaker supply-demand fundamentals.
Even at lower level, price-premium remains at level that incentivizes refiners to maintain steady output of the product.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 4 August

Global base oils prices mostly fall relative to feedstock/competing fuel prices, with export values under more pressure.
Even at lower levels, price-differentials mostly hold at levels that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain output of most base oils grades.
FOB Asia base oils cargo prices hold steady versus Singapore gasoil.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 4 August

Group II heavy-grade base oils premium to light grades is almost the same in US, Europe and Asia markets at same time and for first time in more than five years.
Similar price-spreads in all those markets contrast with diverging fundamentals driving those similar price-spreads, especially in Europe.
Similar price-spreads in US vs other markets follow sustained weakness of US heavy-grade prices because of persistent surplus supply.

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Aug 06

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 1st): Tokyo Electron and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 1st): Tokyo Electron, Advantest, Hitachi, SoftBank, Fujikura
KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): HANWHA SOLUTIONS, Hyundai Motor, Samsung SDI, LG H&H

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Aug 1st): Tokyo Electron, Advantest, Hitachi, SoftBank, Fujikura

We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Aug 1st. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD16,072m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Tokyo Electron, Advantest, Hitachi, SoftBank, Fujikura, Japan Tobacco, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial, IHI, Shimano, Capcom, Tokyo Electron, Advantest, Hitachi, Softbank, Fujikura, Japan Tobacco.

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 1st): HANWHA SOLUTIONS, Hyundai Motor, Samsung SDI, LG H&H

We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Aug 1st. The aggregated short interest was USD9.7bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in HANWHA SOLUTIONS, Hyundai Motor, Samsung SDI, LG H&H, Hanwha Vision.

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Aug 06

Daily Brief Japan: Technopro Holdings, Shibaura Electronics, Softbank Group, Hochiki Corp, Takara Standard, Organo Corp, Azbil Corp, Beenos Inc, Decollte Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

[Japan M&A] Nikkei Says Blackstone to Buy TechnoPro Holdings (6028) For “Roughly ¥500bn”
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Yageo’s Calculus
TechnoPro (6028 JP): Blackstone’s Rumoured Takeunder Offer
Softbank Group (9984 JP) Outlook (Pre-Earnings Price Range Forecast)
Hochiki Corp (6745 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
Takara Standard (7981 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
Organo Corp (6368 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
Azbil Corp (6845 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update
Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update
Decollte Holdings (7372 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update

[Japan M&A] Nikkei Says Blackstone to Buy TechnoPro Holdings (6028) For “Roughly ¥500bn”

There was an article in mid-May saying Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) might be privatised. It is an appropriate candidate. The stock popped 20% immediately, and has since risen another 20%.
Today’s article follows one which came out ~2 weeks ago with non-sourced editorial content suggesting the price might be 20x EBITDA (i.e. a lot higher).
Today, an article says Blackstone will buy the firm for “Roughly ¥500bn” which would be 3% down from yesterday. Beware the Nikkei. Beware expectations.

Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Yageo’s Calculus

By Arun George

Reuters reports that the Ministry of Finance of Japan reclassified Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from a Type 1 (non-designated business sector) to Type 3 (core designated company).
Reportedly, Yageo’s application was made with a view to Shibaura’s businesses falling under the core category. A blocked deal would set back Prime Minister Ishiba’s goal to improve China relations.
The change to Shibaura’s designation to core helps explain the elongated approval process, as the Ministry of Finance and Yageo need time to agree on acceptable undertakings.

TechnoPro (6028 JP): Blackstone’s Rumoured Takeunder Offer

By Arun George

The Nikkei reports that Blackstone (BX US) will launch the tender offer for Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) just below JPY4,900, a 44.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
While the rumoured offer is 1.5% below the last close, it is attractive as it resulted from an auction and represents a pre-media rumour all-time high.
It is unclear if the offer is preconditional on regulatory approvals. Blackstone is likely to secure irrevocables from activists like Orbis to project a secure path to completion.

Softbank Group (9984 JP) Outlook (Pre-Earnings Price Range Forecast)

By Nico Rosti

Softbank Group (9984 JP) is about to release its earnings on August 7th.
The stock pulled back last week but this week is rallying. The rally can easily reach Q2 (12416) and Q3 (13003) resistance zones, if the earnings are good.
If the earnings are disappointing, look for initial support at 11145 (Q3). If earnings are really disappointing, look at 10086 (outliers zone).

Hochiki Corp (6745 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

Q1 consolidated revenue reached JPY22.4bn, a 7.1% YoY increase, marking the 13th consecutive quarter of growth.
Operating profit surged approximately 2.2x YoY to JPY1.1bn, with an OPM increase of 2.4pp to 4.8%.
Orders increased by 8.9% YoY to JPY34.5bn, while the order backlog decreased by 3.0% YoY to JPY39.5bn.

Takara Standard (7981 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

In Q1 FY03/26, revenue was JPY61.4bn (+7.1% YoY), operating profit JPY4.2bn (+35.8% YoY), net income JPY3.1bn (+48.7% YoY).
Revenue growth in new detached housing market was JPY19.2bn (+12.6% YoY), driven by higher unit prices and demand.
Revenue in the remodeling market increased to JPY19.6bn (+0.9% YoY), supported by enhanced product specifications and customer-aligned proposals.

Organo Corp (6368 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

Organo’s Q1 FY03/26 results: Orders JPY59.6bn (+13.0% YoY), revenue JPY38.1bn (+20.5% YoY), operating profit JPY7.0bn (+73.8% YoY).
Revised full-year FY03/26 forecast: Orders JPY180.0bn (+19.0% YoY), revenue JPY175.0bn (+7.2% YoY), operating profit JPY34.0bn (+9.3% YoY).
Electronics industry growth: Semiconductor projects in Taiwan, Japan, US, and increased sales of water treatment chemicals.

Azbil Corp (6845 JP): Q1 FY03/26 flash update

Q1 FY03/26 sales decreased by 5.3% YoY, but operating profit increased by 22.1% due to price hikes.
Orders declined due to fewer multi-year renewals, but segment profit rose by 58.7% YoY from profitability measures.
Orders and sales fell significantly due to Azbil Telstar stake sale, impacting segment profit and margins.

Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update

Q2 FY09/24 results show a 1.0% YoY decrease in GMV to JPY84.9bn and a 30.7% YoY revenue decline.
In Q3 FY09/25, GMV increased due to cross-border e-commerce initiatives, despite foreign exchange challenges affecting user demand.
BEENOS achieved 78.6% of GMV, 76.8% of revenue, 91.2% of operating profit, and 85.4% of net income targets.

Decollte Holdings (7372 JP): Q3 FY09/25 flash update

The company reported revenue of JPY4.7bn (+8.4% YoY) and operating profit of JPY446mn (+60.3% YoY) in Q3 FY09/25.
Photo wedding services saw revenue rise by JPY319mn (+7.8% YoY), with photo shoots up 6.7% YoY.
The fitness gym business experienced a 21.0% YoY revenue drop due to the closure of the Ashiya store.

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Aug 06

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On

Was That It?; Downgrading Discretionary and Energy; Gr/Val Breakout; Market Dynamics Remain Risk-On

By Joe Jasper

Volatility finally picked up last Friday, and the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) both gapped lower to close below their 20-day MAs for the first time in over three months.
With that said, all of the major indexes (SPX, QQQ, DJI, IWM) rallied yesterday to fill their gaps from Friday and SPX and QQQ have reclaimed above their 20-day MAs.
This is a bullish signal that suggests any further pullback is likely to be relatively shallow, and should be treated as a buying opportunity.

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Aug 06

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Hong Kong Ratifies Stablecoin Legislation and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Hong Kong Ratifies Stablecoin Legislation
Japan Morning Connection: Apple Suppliers Continue Higher but SMCI and AMD Disappoint After-Hours
NSDL Vs. CDSL: Who Can Drive More Growth Ahead in This Duopoly?

Hong Kong Ratifies Stablecoin Legislation

By David Blennerhassett

Hong Kong’s Stablecoins Ordinance issued by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority on the 1st August 2025, is the world’s first dedicated legislation targeting stablecoins.
Stablecoins, like Tether (USDT CURNCY), are considered a less volatile type of cryptocurrency as they are pegged to fiat currencies (like the US$/euro), short-term treasuries, and commodities (such as gold).
Proponents of stablecoins, backed by real currency, just need to espouse how they can be a surrogate/improvement on just using … the real currency.

Japan Morning Connection: Apple Suppliers Continue Higher but SMCI and AMD Disappoint After-Hours

By Andrew Jackson

Skyworks and Cirrus both beating should help the likes of Nitto Denko and Alps.
SMCI tanking -16% as investor confidence shaken by a swift U-turn from previous bullish guidance.
Mitsubishi Heavy continues to surge with its earnings lifted by strong growth for its gas turbine business.

NSDL Vs. CDSL: Who Can Drive More Growth Ahead in This Duopoly?

By Nimish Maheshwari

India’s depository duopoly shows strong growth, with NSDL (NSDL IN) leading in institutional assets and Central Depository Services (CDSL IN) dominating the expanding retail investor base.
Financially, CDSL shows superior growth (37% revenue CAGR) and higher profitability margins, while NSDL has grown revenue at a 23% CAGR.
NSDL’s settlement value market share has declined to 66% from 82% in FY19, as competitor CDSL gains ground by partnering with high-volume, new-age retail brokers.

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Aug 06

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Ports, Tata Motors
UST yields fell slightly yesterday, led by the long end, with yield movements muted ahead of this week’s heavy slate of bond auctions. The yield on the 2Y UST declined 1 bp to 3.68%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 2 bps to 4.19%.
Equities recovered from last Friday’s sell-off, driven by solid earnings and expectations of Fed rate cuts.

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Aug 06

Daily Brief ECM: Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements
Beijing Roborock A/H Listing: Leader in Its Niche but Tariffs and Competition Risks
Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust Placement: DPU Accretive Acquisition for a Familiar Asset
Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation
Knowledge Realty Trust IPO – Steady FY25 Growth, Digestible Pricing
Vigonvita Life Sciences (旺山旺水) Pre-IPO: Structural Challenges for Commercialization
Beta Bionic Inc (BBNX) Six Month Summary: From Breakout to Breakdown
Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) Six Month Summary: Rough Start with a Resilient IPO Turnaround

Hong Kong 2025 Placements – Year so Far and Trends for Potential Primary Placements

By Sumeet Singh

2025 has seen a sharp turnaround in HK placements, with 36 US$100m+ deals so far. This compares to only 14 in 2022, 13 in 2023, and 15 in 2024.
Most of the 2025 placements have been primary raising and have come from a handful of sectors/backdrops.
In this note, we try to identify the possible primary placements that could take place over the rest of the year.

Beijing Roborock A/H Listing: Leader in Its Niche but Tariffs and Competition Risks

By Nicholas Tan

Beijing Roborock Technology (688169 CH), a robot vacuum maker, aims to raise around US$500m in its H-share listing.
It was founded in 2014, backed by Xiaomi, and is a global leader in intelligent home robotics.
In this note, we look at its past performance and other deal dynamics that might impact the listing.

Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust Placement: DPU Accretive Acquisition for a Familiar Asset

By Nicholas Tan

Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT SP) is looking to raise at least S$500M (US$388m) in a primary placement.
The deal represents 9.7 days of 3 month ADV and ~3% of market cap.
In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Innogen (银诺医药) Pre-IPO: Thoughts on Valuation

Innogen, a China-based near-commercial stage biotech company, is looking to raise at least USD 100 million via a Hong Kong listing. CITIC Securities and CICC are the joint sponsors.
In our previous note, we have examined the company’s core product namely efsubaglutide alfa, and updates in various filings.
In this note, we will provide a valuation for the company’s core product.

Knowledge Realty Trust IPO – Steady FY25 Growth, Digestible Pricing

By Akshat Shah

Knowledge Realty Trust (258259D IN) is looking to raise around US$551m in its India IPO. It has undertaken a pre-IPO placement round of around INR14bn (US$160m) in June 2025.
Knowledge Realty Trust (KRT) owns and manages a high-quality office portfolio in India covering 87% of India’s office supply and gross absorption between CY16-1QCY25, as per the CBRE report.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we talk about implied valuations in the IPO price range.

Vigonvita Life Sciences (旺山旺水) Pre-IPO: Structural Challenges for Commercialization

Vigonvita is looking to raise at least US$100 million via a Hong Kong listing. The book runner is CITIC.
The company refiled its prospectus and dropped VV116, the commercialized COVID-19 anti-viral drug, from its core asset list.
In this note, we look at changes between filings and also further examine the prospect of LV232 and TPN171.

Beta Bionic Inc (BBNX) Six Month Summary: From Breakout to Breakdown

The company priced an upsized 12.0 million share offering at $17.00—above the initial range—and opened 29.4% higher at $22.00.
In March, amid broader sector weakness across the medical device space, the stock broke below its IPO price.
The company did report better than expected sales in its most recent quarterly report last week with guidance raised giving long term investors more confidence in its execution moving forward.

Pre-IPO Guangzhou Innogen Pharmaceutical Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Compared to competitors, the competitive advantage of Efsubaglutide Alfa is not obvious.The weight loss effect of single target mechanism could be weaker than that of competing dual and triple agonists
Before Innogen filed for listing, some pre-IPO investors chose to transfer the Company’s equity they held at a discount, indicating that these investors lack confidence in the Company’s prospects.
Under the double pressure of a single pipeline and lagging commercialization, pre-IPO valuation of RMB4.65bn is more like a dangerous bubble game.We shared our views on valuation and post-IPO performance.

Smithfield Foods Inc (SFD) Six Month Summary: Rough Start with a Resilient IPO Turnaround