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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jul 10
0

Daily Brief ECM: [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy
  • Kokusai Electric Placement – Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well
  • MMC Port Holdings Berhad Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Zijin Gold Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Figma Inc (FIG): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Software IPO
  • Pre-IPO Dermavon Holdings- Weak R&D and the Lack of Synergy in Pipelines Lead to Unfavorable Outlook

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy

By Travis Lundy

  • After the close today, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) announced that large holder (and original PE owner) KKR HKE Investment LP would sell down 30mm shares or 12.88% of shares out.
  • This is not expected, but also not unexpected – it’s exactly a year since the first selldown. There is a decent-sized short position, and it isn’t a huge offering.
  • This changes two aspects of the future supply/demand balance. Both are important for how this trades in coming months.

Kokusai Electric Placement – Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)‘s (KE) stock.
  • KKR had sold in the IPO and undertaken an extended selldown in July 2024 as well. Hence, this deal is somewhat well flagged.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

MMC Port Holdings Berhad Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

  • MMC Port Holdings Berhad (MMC) is looking to raise about US$1.5bn in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. The deal will be run by CIMB, Maybank, RHB, and UBS.
  • MMC is Malaysia’s largest container port operator and the country’s leading container hub for transshipment and gateway cargo, according to Drewry.
  • MMC operates five sea ports and a solid product jetty terminal and conducts ship-to-ship transfer (STS) services at an offshore port.

Zijin Gold Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

  • Zijin Gold (2579355D HK)  is looking to raise up to US$2.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley and CITIC.
  • It is a leading gold mining company formed by combining all the gold mines of Zijin Mining,  located outside of China.
  • It held interests in eight gold mines located in gold-rich regions across South America, Oceania, Central Asia and Africa.

Figma Inc (FIG): Peeking at the Prospectus of the Next Software IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • Figma (FIG US) filed for an IPO on the NYSE on July 1st for a debut later this month. 
  • Their revenue was $749.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, representing 48% year-over-year growth.
  • Adobe’s acquisition of Figma collapsed in December 2023 after regulatory hurdles paving the way for this IPO. 

Pre-IPO Dermavon Holdings- Weak R&D and the Lack of Synergy in Pipelines Lead to Unfavorable Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The big gap between the revenue proportion of the two business lines indicates that there’s little synergistic effect, thus further delaying the formation of the “medicine and makeup complementary ecosystem”.
  • The weakness in R&D has led to a low overlap in the demands of existing products among the customer groups,making it impossible to match the medical demand through self R&D.
  • The business model of Dermavon is sales-driven rather than R&D-driven. There are concerns on the Company’s pipeline quality. Dermavon has not proved its sustainable profitability. Valuation should be lower peers.

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Jul 10
0

Daily Brief China: Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Oneconnect Financial Technology, Zijin Gold, Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery, Meituan, Nameson Holdings, Greentown China, Dermavon Holdings, Iron Ore and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?
  • OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Precondition Satisfied for a Below Net Cash Offer
  • Zijin Gold Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): Are We or the Market Wrong?
  • Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown – Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great
  • Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) FY25 Concall And Results: Yield At 14% Following Weak Season
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Pre-IPO Dermavon Holdings- Weak R&D and the Lack of Synergy in Pipelines Lead to Unfavorable Outlook
  • [IO Fundamentals 2025/27] Industrial Cleanup, Trade Tensions, and Diverging Inventory Data

Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?

By David Blennerhassett

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Precondition Satisfied for a Below Net Cash Offer

By Arun George

  • The precondition for Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)’s scheme offer from Ping An is satisfied. The offer is HK$2.068 per share (US$7.976 per ADS). The offer price is final.
  • Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) is hoping that a dire 1Q25 and letters of support will nudge minorities to accept an offer that values OneConnect below net cash. 
  • The high minority participation rate and protest votes at the recent AGM are warning signs that the vote is far from a done deal. Tread carefully.

Zijin Gold Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

  • Zijin Gold (2579355D HK)  is looking to raise up to US$2.0bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley and CITIC.
  • It is a leading gold mining company formed by combining all the gold mines of Zijin Mining,  located outside of China.
  • It held interests in eight gold mines located in gold-rich regions across South America, Oceania, Central Asia and Africa.

Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): Are We or the Market Wrong?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (6168 HK) has an impressive debut, but it is currently expensive, at 4.33x PEG with just a 3-year EPS CAGR of 4.7%.
  • It is overpriced by ROE vs. P/B, given it stands higher than the best-fit line. Its inferior market position in the industry makes it deserve to trade below.
  • At 20% discount to Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), it should value at HK$27.80. Even at par, it still implies an 8.5% downside. 

Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown – Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great

By Sumeet Singh

  • As per news reports, Prosus NV (PRX NA) could look to sell some/all of its Meituan (3690 HK) stake, worth around US$4bn
  • Prosus has held its stake for a few years, owing to the dividend payout by Tencent, but Meituan appears to be planning to take on one of its subsidiaries.
  • In this note, we will talk about the possible selldown and other deal dynamics.

Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) FY25 Concall And Results: Yield At 14% Following Weak Season

By Sameer Taneja

  • Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) reported FY25 revenue/net profit declines of 0.6%/5.3% YoY, respectively, primarily driven by a margin contraction of approximately 40 basis points.
  • The company declared a 1.5-cent final dividend (total dividend 11.3 cents/share), maintaining a 75% payout ratio, resulting in a 14% yield on the current share price. 
  • The stock trades at a 5.5x FY26e PE with a 3x EV-EBITDA and a 14% dividend yield, assuming the company can maintain flat earnings for FY26.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Nissan Motor, Continuum Green
  • UST yields rose slightly yesterday, with yields up for a fifth straight day. There were no apparent catalysts, albeit the move was in line with a broader sell-off in European and Japanese government bonds.
  • The yield on the 2Y UST was unchanged at 3.89%, while that on the 10Y UST advanced 2 bps to 4.40%. Equities were little changed near all-time highs, amid renewed tariff concerns. US President Donald Trump has told reporters at a White House meeting that he plans to announce a 50% tariff on copper imports.

Pre-IPO Dermavon Holdings- Weak R&D and the Lack of Synergy in Pipelines Lead to Unfavorable Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The big gap between the revenue proportion of the two business lines indicates that there’s little synergistic effect, thus further delaying the formation of the “medicine and makeup complementary ecosystem”.
  • The weakness in R&D has led to a low overlap in the demands of existing products among the customer groups,making it impossible to match the medical demand through self R&D.
  • The business model of Dermavon is sales-driven rather than R&D-driven. There are concerns on the Company’s pipeline quality. Dermavon has not proved its sustainable profitability. Valuation should be lower peers.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/27] Industrial Cleanup, Trade Tensions, and Diverging Inventory Data

By Umang Agrawal

  • Beijing’s push to cut inefficient capacity may support steel margins and create a steady floor for iron ore prices.
  • Malaysia’s anti-dumping tariffs of 3.86-57.90% target Chinese steel exports, posing limited short-term impact but signalling broader risks to China’s iron ore demand over time.
  • Portside inventories may continue rising as iron ore arrivals increase and weak pig iron output slows cargo pick-up across Chinese ports.

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Jul 10
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Tops $4 Trillion and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Tops $4 Trillion
  • Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set to Start Higher as Markets Look past Tariff Confusions
  • Q1FY26 Banking Sector Report: How Repo Rate Cuts Are Reshaping the Sector?
  • Cerabyte. Forever Data Storage At A Fraction Of Current Costs?
  • Thematic Report on the Coffee Price Rollercoaster: Implications for India’s FMCG & Processing Sector
  • The Overnight Report: Copper & Pharma Fright
  • Monday Delight: 07/07/25
  • Consumer Products Monthly WTR Consumer Index Lags S&P 600 in 2Q
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on CRC
  • US EV Charging Infrastructure Tracker – June 2025

Ohayo Japan | Nvidia Tops $4 Trillion

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nasdaq rose 0.9% to a record 20,611, led by Nvidia’s 1.6% gain and brief $4 trillion valuation milestone
  • President Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods, citing Brazil’s treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro, escalating trade tensions ahead of the August 1 tariff implementation deadline.
  • Oasis Management, a Hong Kong activist fund, acquired a 5.19% stake in Casio for 15 billion yen, aiming to enhance shareholder value

Japan Morning Connection: Japan Set to Start Higher as Markets Look past Tariff Confusions

By Andrew Jackson

  • KKR to sell a further 12.9% stake of Kokusai Elec, which sets the stage for big upside once dust settles.
  • Home builders surging with mortgage applications at the highest levels since early 2023.
  • Renewables up with AES and Bloom Energy posting big gains and JP names recently outperforming.

Q1FY26 Banking Sector Report: How Repo Rate Cuts Are Reshaping the Sector?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Despite a 100-bps rate cut by RBI, banks face margin pressure as lending rates fall faster than deposit repricing. 
  • Credit growth has slowed sharply, while deposit growth is improving unevenly – tightening liquidity conditions, especially for private banks and SFBs.
  • Valuations remain attractive despite near-term earnings stress, supported by stable asset quality, treasury gains, and long-term confidence in sector fundamentals.

Cerabyte. Forever Data Storage At A Fraction Of Current Costs?

By William Keating

  • Cerabyte has a stated vision of achieving $1 per petabyte per month, a cost reduction of 1000x within the next two decades. That’s a bold vision.
  • Magnetic tape storage continues to play a crucial role in data centers and its technology continues to advance with the latest LTO-10 cassette announced by Fujifilm in June 2025
  • Microsoft’s Project Silica, launched in 2019, appears to take a very similar approach albeit there are as yet no stated plans for commercialisation. 

Thematic Report on the Coffee Price Rollercoaster: Implications for India’s FMCG & Processing Sector

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Since 2021, coffee prices have surged up to 300%, driven by supply disruptions in major producers like Brazil and Vietnam. Recent price corrections provides relief still volatility remains high. 
  • The price fluctuations directly affect Indian coffee processors, with increased working capital requirements and lower PAT margin. Stabilizing prices can improve profitability and working capital cycles. 
  • FMCG giants like Nestle and Tata Consumer Products faced margin pressures due to volatile coffee prices. While recent declines provide relief, continued price uncertainty requires adaptive strategies for cost management.

The Overnight Report: Copper & Pharma Fright

By FNArena

  • The RBA threw a spanner in the markets’ almost universally anticipated -25bps rate cut, but both ASX200 and the AUD recovered to the previous day’s levels.
  • The RBA will now cut in August, right?
  • After a muted overnight session, with more Trump tariff rumblings on copper and pharmaceuticals, the ASX200 futures suggest a slightly softer start to Wednesday.

Monday Delight: 07/07/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • Each week, I’ll share five intriguing investment ideas that recently caught my attention. These ideas are meant to spark your research and help you kickstart the week ahead with fresh insights.
  • Because these ideas are the result of my first-level idea generation process, they require more in depth research. Therefore, the ideas will often be concise, with occasional references to valuable work from other practitioners that I encourage you to explore.
  • If you have something fascinating to share that could benefit me and the wider community, don’t hesitate to send it my way—I’d love to hear from you!

Consumer Products Monthly WTR Consumer Index Lags S&P 600 in 2Q

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Consumer Stock Index trailed the Small Cap S&P 600 in 2Q, declining 2.4% versus the 1.1% gain in the broader index.
  • The underperformance of our index was mostly due to a larger decline in prospective earnings, coupled with a lesser expansion in its prospective P/E ratio.
  • Our index saw prospective earnings decline 7.2% in 2Q versus a 5.0% decline in the S&P 600, while its prospective P/E ratio expanded 0.8x in 2Q to 15.7x versus the 0.9x expansion to 15.3x in the S&P 600.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor Focus on CRC

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was up 0.5% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 1.7%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 3.5%), and the Nasdaq Index (up 1.5%).
  • Energy Technology (13.9% of the index) was up 6.8%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (49.3% of the index) was up 2.7%, ClimateTech Mining was down 10.7%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.9% of the index) was up 0.9%.
  • Top 10 Performers: HCNWF, GWH, RUN, FLNC, LIS, STEM, FLUX, GRB, NRGV, AMTX

US EV Charging Infrastructure Tracker – June 2025

By Garvit Bhandari

  • The current EV charging infrastructure in the US remains inadequate and needs to grow rapidly to meet future demand.
  • According to The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), U.S. will need 1.0 million Level 2 and 182,000 DC Fast charging points by 2030 to support the charging of electric vehicles.
  • Based on the current growth rates, U.S. is likely to fall short of these numbers by 2030. The pace of growth needs to pick up rapidly.

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Jul 10
0

Daily Brief Japan: Kokusai Electric , Toyota Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy
  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger
  • Kokusai Electric Placement – Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well
  • Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525) – KKR’s Secondary Sale Marks Typical PE Exit

[Japan ECM] Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering – Expect It Very Well Bid, and the Back End Squeezy

By Travis Lundy

  • After the close today, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) announced that large holder (and original PE owner) KKR HKE Investment LP would sell down 30mm shares or 12.88% of shares out.
  • This is not expected, but also not unexpected – it’s exactly a year since the first selldown. There is a decent-sized short position, and it isn’t a huge offering.
  • This changes two aspects of the future supply/demand balance. Both are important for how this trades in coming months.

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

By Arun George

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

By Brian Freitas

Kokusai Electric Placement – Well Flagged but past Deal Didn’t Do Well

By Sumeet Singh

  • KKR is looking to raise approximately US$620m through an accelerated secondary offering for around 13% of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)‘s (KE) stock.
  • KKR had sold in the IPO and undertaken an extended selldown in July 2024 as well. Hence, this deal is somewhat well flagged.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525) – KKR’s Secondary Sale Marks Typical PE Exit

By Rahul Jain

  • On July 9, 2025, KKR announced it would reduce its stake in Kokusai Electric from ~23.5% to ~10.6% through a ¥90 billion overnight secondary offering.
  • KKR’s move reflects a classic private equity monetization strategy following operational improvements and a successful IPO.
  • While the sale caused a modest short-term share reaction (~2% dip), such liquidity events rarely impact long-term value—fundamentals remain the key driver for patient investors.

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Jul 10
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Greentown China, Nissan Motor, Continuum Green
  • UST yields rose slightly yesterday, with yields up for a fifth straight day. There were no apparent catalysts, albeit the move was in line with a broader sell-off in European and Japanese government bonds.
  • The yield on the 2Y UST was unchanged at 3.89%, while that on the 10Y UST advanced 2 bps to 4.40%. Equities were little changed near all-time highs, amid renewed tariff concerns. US President Donald Trump has told reporters at a White House meeting that he plans to announce a 50% tariff on copper imports.

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Jul 10
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace
  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger
  • Treasury Cancellation Bill Latest: 10% Holding Cap for Existing Ones — Targets Screened in Excel
  • Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?
  • OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Precondition Satisfied for a Below Net Cash Offer
  • Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown – Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great
  • Brightstar Lottery (fka IGT) Capital Return is Better Than Expected

Toyota Industries (6201 JP): Vocal Activism Gathering Pace

By Arun George

Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Small Index Impact for Now, but Could Lead to Something Bigger

By Brian Freitas

Treasury Cancellation Bill Latest: 10% Holding Cap for Existing Ones — Targets Screened in Excel

By Sanghyun Park

  • Market focus is now on retroactive impact — existing treasury holdings above 10% must be canceled within a year, flipping earlier expectations that they’d be exempt.
  • DP’s fast-tracking the bill, targeting a September vote and mid-October go-live, with this Commercial Act tweak topping their legislative priority list.
  • Excel below shows 230 stocks above the 10% treasury cap, including 35 large-caps — prime candidates for momentum trades as the mandatory buyback burn bill gains steam.

Chinese RCBs: Two Bailouts. How Many More At Risk?

By David Blennerhassett

OneConnect Financial (6638 HK/OCFT US): Precondition Satisfied for a Below Net Cash Offer

By Arun George

  • The precondition for Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK)’s scheme offer from Ping An is satisfied. The offer is HK$2.068 per share (US$7.976 per ADS). The offer price is final.
  • Ping An Insurance (H) (2318 HK) is hoping that a dire 1Q25 and letters of support will nudge minorities to accept an offer that values OneConnect below net cash. 
  • The high minority participation rate and protest votes at the recent AGM are warning signs that the vote is far from a done deal. Tread carefully.

Meituan Possible US$4bn Selldown – Will End up Being Well-Flagged but Sentiment Isn’t Great

By Sumeet Singh

  • As per news reports, Prosus NV (PRX NA) could look to sell some/all of its Meituan (3690 HK) stake, worth around US$4bn
  • Prosus has held its stake for a few years, owing to the dividend payout by Tencent, but Meituan appears to be planning to take on one of its subsidiaries.
  • In this note, we will talk about the possible selldown and other deal dynamics.

Brightstar Lottery (fka IGT) Capital Return is Better Than Expected

By Richard Howe

  • Brightstar Lottery (fka IGT) announced a better than expected capital return program following the closing of the Apollo transaction.
  • Brightstar will pay a $3 special dividend (7/14 ex date) and buy back $500MM of stock.
  • Brightstar is in a quiet period, but I would expect it to aggressively buy back stock following its earnings report on July 29, 2025.

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Jul 10
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525) – KKR’s Secondary Sale Marks Typical PE Exit and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525) – KKR’s Secondary Sale Marks Typical PE Exit
  • Travel Food Services IPO: Capitalizing on the Global Airport F&B Boom
  • A Pair Trade Between SM Entertainment (Long) Vs HYBE (Short)
  • Samsung 2Q25: It’s Even Worse than the Official Leak
  • Meta Just Bought into EssilorLuxottica.
  • Arena REIT (ARF AU) Vs National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Statistical Arbitrage in Two Australian REITs
  • Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): Are We or the Market Wrong?
  • Lifestyle Communities Ltd – The Overnight Report: Nvidia Tops US$4trn
  • TechChain Insights: Zhen Ding – How Next Generation PCBs/Substrates Will Be Critical for AI Devices
  • Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) FY25 Concall And Results: Yield At 14% Following Weak Season

Kokusai Electric (TSE: 6525) – KKR’s Secondary Sale Marks Typical PE Exit

By Rahul Jain

  • On July 9, 2025, KKR announced it would reduce its stake in Kokusai Electric from ~23.5% to ~10.6% through a ¥90 billion overnight secondary offering.
  • KKR’s move reflects a classic private equity monetization strategy following operational improvements and a successful IPO.
  • While the sale caused a modest short-term share reaction (~2% dip), such liquidity events rarely impact long-term value—fundamentals remain the key driver for patient investors.

Travel Food Services IPO: Capitalizing on the Global Airport F&B Boom

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Travel Food Services leads India’s airport QSR sector with a 24% market share and expands internationally through strategic partnerships, capitalizing on the growing global travel F&B market. 
  • With a debt-free balance sheet and robust margins, TFS ensures scalable growth through strategic joint ventures and partnerships, minimizing capital expenditure while expanding operations. 
  • With its diverse brand portfolio and a presence in high-traffic airports across India and abroad. The company’s expansion into new airports ensures sustained growth in the travel food services sector.

A Pair Trade Between SM Entertainment (Long) Vs HYBE (Short)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss a pair trade between SM Entertainment Co (041510 KS) (long) vs HYBE (352820 KS) (short).
  • There is an increasing probability that HYBE’s founder Bang Si-hyuk could face some jail time in which case there could be some vacuum of management leadership at HYBE.
  • Despite its recent outperformance, SM Entertainment’s valuation is much more attractive than HYBE (SM is trading at 9.6x EV/EBITDA vs 18.5x for HYBE in 2026).

Samsung 2Q25: It’s Even Worse than the Official Leak

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 1st July the Korean media was “pre-announcing” 2Q25 operating profit to be “weaker than expected”, declining “by more than 15% from the first quarter” to KRW mid-5 trillion range. 
  • Samsung official announcement is worse: operating profit KRW 4.6tn, down -56% YoY and -31% QoQ. This suggests a lower margins mix (less HBM, higher Foundry losses) and more Opex. 
  • Last week, Consensus was expecting 2Q OP KRW 6.7tn, now down to 6.1tn. The reported 4.6tn is a nasty miss that implies that Consensus is way too high for 2H25. 

Meta Just Bought into EssilorLuxottica.

By Fallacy Alarm

  • We won’t be generation heads-down forever. Handsets are impractical as our primary device to interact with information technology.

  • When we use them, we lose touch to the real world. Headsets are the obvious next step to allow for a more integrated experience.

  • Meta has been betting on the handset-to-headset transition for more than a decade. And they have been doing so with courage and determination.

Arena REIT (ARF AU) Vs National Storage REIT (NSR AU): Statistical Arbitrage in Two Australian REITs

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Arena REIT (ARF AU) vs. National Storage REIT (NSR AU) Price-Ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
  • This relative value opportunity can be implemented as a long-short pair trade or as relative over-/underweights in a long only context.
  • Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

Zhou Liu Fu (6168 HK): Are We or the Market Wrong?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Zhou Liu Fu Jewellery (6168 HK) has an impressive debut, but it is currently expensive, at 4.33x PEG with just a 3-year EPS CAGR of 4.7%.
  • It is overpriced by ROE vs. P/B, given it stands higher than the best-fit line. Its inferior market position in the industry makes it deserve to trade below.
  • At 20% discount to Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK), it should value at HK$27.80. Even at par, it still implies an 8.5% downside. 

Lifestyle Communities Ltd – The Overnight Report: Nvidia Tops US$4trn

By FNArena

  • A global perspective on what happened overnight

TechChain Insights: Zhen Ding – How Next Generation PCBs/Substrates Will Be Critical for AI Devices

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Zhen Ding Technology Holding (4958 TT) is leveraging its full-stack PCB and IC substrate portfolio to position itself as a critical enabler of AI hardware across cloud, channel, and edge applications. 
  • AI-Linked hardware is expected to account for over 70% of Zhen Ding’s revenue in 2025, up sharply from 45% in 2024 and just 8% in 2023.
  • Zhen Ding shares remain substantially below their 52-week highs; we see the company well-placed in terms of long-term drivers. Well placed for an upcoming AI robotics boom.

Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) FY25 Concall And Results: Yield At 14% Following Weak Season

By Sameer Taneja

  • Nameson Holdings (1982 HK) reported FY25 revenue/net profit declines of 0.6%/5.3% YoY, respectively, primarily driven by a margin contraction of approximately 40 basis points.
  • The company declared a 1.5-cent final dividend (total dividend 11.3 cents/share), maintaining a 75% payout ratio, resulting in a 14% yield on the current share price. 
  • The stock trades at a 5.5x FY26e PE with a 3x EV-EBITDA and a 14% dividend yield, assuming the company can maintain flat earnings for FY26.

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Jul 10
0

Daily Brief Macro: Labour’s Collapsing Credibility and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Labour’s Collapsing Credibility
  • Why America’s Manufacturing Dreams Might Be Economic Nightmares
  • US Equities Hit All-Time Highs—but Are Markets Ignoring Growing Risks?
  • RBNZ: Policy Rate Held At 3.25% (Consensus 3.25%) in Jul-25
  • Malaysia: 25bp Rate Cut to 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Jul-25
  • [IO Fundamentals 2025/27] Industrial Cleanup, Trade Tensions, and Diverging Inventory Data
  • CX Daily: Huawei Cedes Some Control Over Sales to Automaking Partners, Sources Say

Labour’s Collapsing Credibility

By Phil Rush

  • Labour failed to campaign on a platform up to the UK’s structural problems, depriving it of the support to deliver change in its first year. Reform UK now lead most polls.
  • Spending cut U-turns compound the fiscal hole exposed by the slippage of optimistic assumptions, making further tax hikes and more persistent deficits seem inevitable.
  • Far-centrism has been rejected, but challenges to Labour’s right and left break its ability to triangulate back towards success. Investors may not stay so forgiving.

Why America’s Manufacturing Dreams Might Be Economic Nightmares

By Viral Kishorchandra Shah

  • Germany’s GDP declined 0.2% in 2024, Japan’s industrial production contracted 1.1%. Meanwhile, America’s service-focused economy outperforms manufacturing-heavy competitors consistently.
  • Tooling costs are 10x higher in America than China. Even 145% tariffs insufficient—need 350% tariffs to make domestic manufacturing viable.
  • US services exports surpass lost manufacturing profits. Services employ 84% of private sector, pay more than manufacturing ($36 vs $35/hour).

US Equities Hit All-Time Highs—but Are Markets Ignoring Growing Risks?

By Ron William

  • Surface Strength, Underlying Fragility: Despite record highs in U.S. equities, narrow market breadth, inter-market divergences, and macro-cycle pressures signal growing instability beneath the surface.
  • Rising Tail Risks: Geopolitical tensions (e.g., fragile Iran-Israel ceasefire) and shifting U.S. trade policy (potential 70% tariffs) threaten to disrupt market momentum and trigger volatility.
  • Prepare for Inflection: Timing models and liquidity indicators point to a Q3 turning point; investors should rebalance toward quality, raise cash, and deploy tactical hedges ahead of possible late-year turbulence.

RBNZ: Policy Rate Held At 3.25% (Consensus 3.25%) in Jul-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • The RBNZ unanimously held the OCR at 3.25% after six consecutive cuts, marking the first pause in its easing cycle as inflation edges towards the top of the 1-3% target band.
  • The Committee maintains an explicit easing bias, signalling that further rate cuts are expected if medium-term inflation pressures continue to ease as projected.
  • Future monetary policy decisions will be heavily influenced by global trade tensions, domestic economic recovery momentum, and inflation expectations amid an explicitly uncertain outlook.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Malaysia: 25bp Rate Cut to 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Jul-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • BNM trimmed the OPR to 2.75%, a move anticipated by just over half of surveyed economists, reflecting a mildly surprising tilt towards accommodation.
  • Future rate decisions hinge on tariff negotiations, subsidy rationalisation, and whether subdued core inflation persists within the 1.5%–2.5% comfort band.
  • With liquidity bolstered by an earlier SRR cut and inflation benign, the MPC retains scope for one further 25 bp reduction should external demand weaken further, but ringgit stability and fiscal adjustments will temper the pace of any additional easing.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/27] Industrial Cleanup, Trade Tensions, and Diverging Inventory Data

By Umang Agrawal

  • Beijing’s push to cut inefficient capacity may support steel margins and create a steady floor for iron ore prices.
  • Malaysia’s anti-dumping tariffs of 3.86-57.90% target Chinese steel exports, posing limited short-term impact but signalling broader risks to China’s iron ore demand over time.
  • Portside inventories may continue rising as iron ore arrivals increase and weak pig iron output slows cargo pick-up across Chinese ports.

CX Daily: Huawei Cedes Some Control Over Sales to Automaking Partners, Sources Say

By Caixin Global

  • Huawei /: Huawei cedes some control over sales to automaking partners, sources say
  • IPO /: Li Ka-shing’s son takes insurer FWD public in Hong Kong
  • Hikvision /: Chinese surveillance-gear maker fights Canadian ban

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Jul 10
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Daily Brief Industrials: MMC Port Holdings Berhad, Transcat and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • MMC Port Holdings Berhad Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • What Do Investors See in Sleepy Transcat?

MMC Port Holdings Berhad Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

  • MMC Port Holdings Berhad (MMC) is looking to raise about US$1.5bn in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. The deal will be run by CIMB, Maybank, RHB, and UBS.
  • MMC is Malaysia’s largest container port operator and the country’s leading container hub for transshipment and gateway cargo, according to Drewry.
  • MMC operates five sea ports and a solid product jetty terminal and conducts ship-to-ship transfer (STS) services at an offshore port.

What Do Investors See in Sleepy Transcat?

By J Capital Research

  • Transcat (NASDAQ: TRNS) is a roll-up of companies that serve the pharmaceutical, aerospace, utilities, oilfield, and other industries with measurement equipment, calibration services, and sales.
  • TRNS sells and rents equipment and maintains a fleet of vans that it dispatches to client premises to adjust their measuring equipment.
  • Listed since 1972, the company has never paid a dividend and has no plans to do so.

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Jul 10
0

Daily Brief Industrials: MMC Port Holdings Berhad, Transcat and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • MMC Port Holdings Berhad Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • What Do Investors See in Sleepy Transcat?

MMC Port Holdings Berhad Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Troy Wong

  • MMC Port Holdings Berhad (MMC) is looking to raise about US$1.5bn in its upcoming Malaysia IPO. The deal will be run by CIMB, Maybank, RHB, and UBS.
  • MMC is Malaysia’s largest container port operator and the country’s leading container hub for transshipment and gateway cargo, according to Drewry.
  • MMC operates five sea ports and a solid product jetty terminal and conducts ship-to-ship transfer (STS) services at an offshore port.

What Do Investors See in Sleepy Transcat?

By J Capital Research

  • Transcat (NASDAQ: TRNS) is a roll-up of companies that serve the pharmaceutical, aerospace, utilities, oilfield, and other industries with measurement equipment, calibration services, and sales.
  • TRNS sells and rents equipment and maintains a fleet of vans that it dispatches to client premises to adjust their measuring equipment.
  • Listed since 1972, the company has never paid a dividend and has no plans to do so.

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