Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• A foreign short seller has released its short thesis note on Vedanta Group, labelling the group as a Ponzi scheme. 
• The report’s central assertion is ‘to repay the debt of holding company Vedanta Resources, Vedanta Limited paid aggressive dividends leading to depletion of financial & operational strength of Vedanta
• Dividend & delisting along with share purchases funded through debt, unreconciled interest, and depleting asset base, stagnancy in expansion plans.

• Kinterra increased its New World Resources (NWC AU) offer to A$0.063, which will be increased to A$0.064 and declared unconditional if Kinterra acquires 30% of voting rights by 11 July.
• Central Asia Metals (CAML LN) has five business days to match Kinterra’s offer. While CAML today lowered its FY2025 production guidance, it retains the headroom to return with revised terms.
• Trump’s recent copper tariffs support the case for the ongoing bidding war. Crucially, none of the bidders has declared their offer best and final. 

• Rubber Board undertakes nationwide EUDR sensitization drives  
• Geo-mapping and traceability systems scaled up across states  
•  Low-risk status to come under EU review in 2026

• Insider buying spanned across 40+ stocks in June 2025, highlighting continued conviction among promoters, directors, and trusts.
• While, there were fewer companies with market cap above USD 1 bn which saw insider buying, this number was significantly higher (35 count) in smaller names.
• Companies which have zoomed after the insider purchases include – LT Foods Ltd (LTFO IN) (+10%), Valor Estate (+11%). In smaller names – Man Industries (India) (MAN IN) (+88%)

• Zijin Mining Group Co. Ltd., China’s largest gold producer, is carving out its fast-growing international operations for an initial public offering (IPO) in Hong Kong, aiming to build a well-funded global powerhouse as gold prices reach record heights.
• Already listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai, Zijin announced Monday that its subsidiary Zijin Gold International Co. Ltd. has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
• The offering — jointly underwritten by Morgan Stanley and Citic Securities — will float up to 15% of the unit’s shares, with an overallotment option of an additional 15% of that tranche.

• Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report

• China Northern Rare Earth issued a mid-year earnings guidance of ¥900–960 million for H1 FY2025, marking a 1,900%+ YoY increase and reflecting strong volume recovery and operational leverage.
• The company is on track to meet our full-year net profit estimate of ¥2.33 billion and EPS of ¥0.65, assuming a seasonally stronger H2.
• Key risks include ongoing export restrictions, global supply chain diversification efforts, and downstream demand volatility, while long-term plans remain aligned with China’s rare earth consolidation and value-added material strategy.

bp is pivoting back towards its traditional upstream oil and gas business, with a renewed focus on shareholder returns. It will remain an integrated energy play with strong differentiating factors (trading, high-quality assets) but with a less aggressive tilt towards renewables, a strategic review of lubricants (Castrol) and a primary focus on maximising shareholder returns. In our view, this pivot could reduce its discount to peers. We believe oil and gas exposure is important in the construction of investors’ portfolios as it offsets the negative impact of energy price spikes.

• The U.S. Department of Defense has committed $550 million to MP Materials through preferred equity, a loan, and offtake guarantees to build a fully domestic rare earth magnet supply chain.
• This positions MP as the U.S. government’s strategic partner for critical magnet materials, accelerating its shift from miner to fully integrated magnet producer.
• With a 10-year NdPr price floor, guaranteed offtake, and minimum EBITDA protections, MP now has robust downside protection and earnings predictability through 2035.