Smartkarma Daily Briefs

NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) could raise up to US$824m in its IPO if the overallotment option is exercised and the stock is expected to start trading on 14 July.
Cornerstone investors will own 16.8% of shares out following the IPO but there is no lock-up on these shares. The sponsor will own 20%/25% depending on whether overallotment is exercised.
NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) should be added to the smallcap segment of global indices in November and December while inclusion in local indices will take a lot longer.

StubWorld: Haw Par Looking Stretched

By David Blennerhassett

Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP)‘s discount to NAV has narrowed to a multi-year low; and the implied stub and simple ratio (HPAR/UOB) are similarly elevated. Shares are, however, pretty illiquid.
Preceding my comments on Haw Par – and Singapore Land Group (SPLG SP) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Dah Sing Financial (2356 HK): Discounts On Discounts

By David Blennerhassett

In the setup/unwind tables highlighted in StubWorld: Haw Par Looking Stretched, I see Dah Sing Financial (440 HK) at trading “cheap” to 74.4%-held Dah Sing Banking (2356 HK).
I see DSF at a 51% discount to NAV, around its one-year average. However the simple ratio (DSF/DSB) and implied stub are at multi-year lows.
Separately, DSB is trading at a ~62% discount to NAV – applying its 13.2%-holding in Bank of Chongqing (1963 HK) – around a one-year high. This is, however, a weak stub.

A Tender Offer of Remaining Shares & Delisting of Tongyang Life Insurance by Woori Financial?

It has been reported that Woori Financial Group is considering on acquiring all of the remaining shares (21.2%) of Tongyang Life Insurance and delist it, making it a 100% subsidiary.
We believe that there is a high probability (70-80%+) that Woori Financial Group decides to acquire the remaining 21.2% stake in Tongyang Life Insurance held by minority shareholders.
Between cash and stock, we think that Woori Financial is likely to use cash to complete this deal, although the exact amount of market premium remains uncertain.

Alteogen: 2nd Largest Shareholder Raises Stake & Requests Switching Listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI

On 7 July, it was reported that Hyung In-Woo (second largest shareholder of Alteogen) recently raised his ownership in the company by 0.22% stake (about 39 billion won) last month.
Mr. Hyung has requested to Alteogen to switch the company’s listing from KOSDAQ to KOSPI to improve the company’s image and attract greater capital inflow from passive funds.
Alteogen is currently trading at P/E of 37.7x in 2026 and 31.6x in 2027 which are reasonable, considering the company’s significant sales and profit growth in the next three years.

Capgemini–WNS: A Strategic AI Play with Risk-Arb Clarity and Optionality

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Capgemini to acquire WNS for $76.50 per share in cash; deal implies a 28% premium to VWAP and aims to create a global leader in AI-powered intelligent operations.
WNS traded at a discount to peers pre-offer; Capgemini expects meaningful synergies (~$8.63/share NPV), justifying the 16x P/E takeout. No termination fee is disclosed publicly.
Interloper risk is modest; deal certainty is high. With a 3.83% gross spread (pre-market) and 8.15% annualized return, the arbitrage setup is attractive barring regulatory or shareholder surprises.

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Jul 08

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Health and Happiness (H&H), Tata Steel
The US market was closed for Independence Day on Friday. US President Donald Trump passed his signature tax cut and spending Bill into law on Friday, after it was approved by Congress in a 218-214 vote on Thursday.
The fiscal package includes tax cuts, lower spending on social programmes (e.g. federal food stamps and college student loans) and the elimination of tax benefits encouraging the use of clean energies. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that the new legislation will add more than USD 3 tn to the country’s deficit over the next decade.

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Jul 08

Daily Brief Macro: HEM: Rolling Resilience and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

HEM: Rolling Resilience
Regional Economics: Dollar Dominance Being Eroded, but Not Ended
Rising OPEC+ Supply & Weak Demand To Drag Crude Price Lower
From Big Beautiful Bill to Bunker Busting Bombs
Follow the DoGI
How Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Will Affect Commodity Markets
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July
[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/27] Henry Hub Dropped on Mild Forecasts and Rising Output
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 July
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 July

HEM: Rolling Resilience

By Phil Rush

Economic activity is robust with a tight labour market.
Price and wage inflation are generally above 2%.
Despite predictions of a downturn, the current economic regime remains stable.

Regional Economics: Dollar Dominance Being Eroded, but Not Ended

By Manu Bhaskaran

Structural drivers of the USD’s dominance are weakening, but powerful network effects, unrivalled market depth and lack of viable alternatives will prevent a full dethronement.
Rather than a single replacement, a multicurrency reserve system is set to emerge — which includes several Asian currencies — especially in trade settlement and funding.
Given Asia’s extensive holdings of USD assets, even a slight shift in allocations could send reverberations across currency and financial markets.

Rising OPEC+ Supply & Weak Demand To Drag Crude Price Lower

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

Crude oil soared on conflict and sank just as fast on ceasefire. Prices surged to a 5-month high following the U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities.
June’s price action was driven by geopolitical shocks, not sustained fundamentals. Oversupply concerns remain dominant.
On 05/Jul, eight key members of OPEC+ alliance agreed to raise oil output in August. Instead of the anticipated 411kbpd increase, the group opted for a steeper hike of 548kbpd.

From Big Beautiful Bill to Bunker Busting Bombs

By Mark Tinker

It had looked like the big story for June was going to be how Build Back Better, the Globalist Mantra used to cover for a huge increase in spending on the Green Industrial Complex, was being attacked by the proposed spending constraints under a different BBB, the Big Beautiful Bill that is now in the process of going through the Senate.
Until that is we got a third BBB, the Bunker Busting Bomb as the US bombed Iran.
As we discussed in the Ratchet and the Sausage Machine, the fall out over the BB Bill between Trump and Musk was less one of direction and more one of ideological purity; Musk despises the pork barrel nature of US political horse trading while Trump 2.0 recognises what is needed to get things done – in this case fulfil his pre election promises and prevent his previous tax cuts from being reversed.

Follow the DoGI

By Thomas Lam

It is essential to track and evaluate the global economy amid a multitude of negative and positive shocks at this time
My experimental Diffusion of Growth Indicator (DoGI) offers a timely directional view of the global economy
The signals from the DoGI combined with the breadth of GDP contractions can effectively assess the likelihood of a global recession

How Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Will Affect Commodity Markets

By The Commodity Report

During the week, Trump muscled his Big Beautiful Bill through a divided congress. With that, the bill got passed even right before 4th of July.
The nearly-900 page bill includes a tax-cut and spending package that is projected to increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion over a decade.
Cost-saving to reduce the government debt seems to be completely from the table. The DODGE department seems compared to this bill like a joke.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July

Asia’s base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil price stays at elevated levels for heavy grades, lower-than-usual levels for light grades.
Base oils margins incentivize refiners to maintain higher production levels for heavy grades, and to consider adjusting production levels for light grades.
Any such moves to maintain or adjust output would coincide with rise in regional production capacity following completion of most plant-maintenance work.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/27] Henry Hub Dropped on Mild Forecasts and Rising Output

By Suhas Reddy

For the week ending 03/Jul, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 8.8% due to cooler weather forecasts, rising output, and U.S. natural gas storage builds.
For the week ending 27/Jun, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 55 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 48 Bcf build.
Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.86 on 03/Jul compared to 0.85 on 27/Jun. Call OI grew by 4.5% WoW, while put OI increased by 5.3%.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 July

US Group II export base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil starts Q3 2025 at slightly lower levels than at start of Q3 2024.
In Q3 2024, US base oils price premium to VGO extends rise after surging from end-Q1 2024.
US base oils price-premium to VGO extends surge in Q3 2024 even with less feasible arbitrage to outlets like Europe, Middle East and India.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 July

Global base oils values mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, even as they remain down from recent highs in Q2 2025.
Firm base oils margins coincide with strong diesel premium to crude oil that incentivizes refiners to boost output of the motor fuel.
Any such move would likely impact light-grade base oils more than heavy grades, whose firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high output of the product.

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Jul 08

Daily Brief Japan: Marui Group, Fast Retailing, Toyo Engineering, United Arrows and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

Marui Group Placement: Clean up by Toho; Improving Fundamentals
FAST RETAILING (9983 JP) | Q3 Preview: Upside Risk into Print, But Tariff Narrative Still Overhangs
Toyo Engineering (6330 JP): Coverage Initiation
United Arrows Finds New Growth Path Through Korean Brand

Marui Group Placement: Clean up by Toho; Improving Fundamentals

By Nicholas Tan

A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$184m from selling their respective stakes in Marui Group (8252 JP) .
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

FAST RETAILING (9983 JP) | Q3 Preview: Upside Risk into Print, But Tariff Narrative Still Overhangs

By Mark Chadwick

Q3 earnings risk skewed to upside: we forecast sales/OP of ¥857b/¥171b vs. Street’s ¥826b/¥152b.
Domestic Uniqlo trends strong; international segment likely resilient despite Inditex’s headline miss.
Tariff impact likely reiterated but remains a FY26 issue, not a near-term earnings swing factor.

Toyo Engineering (6330 JP): Coverage Initiation

By Shared Research

In FY03/25, orders stood at JPY244.2bn (-47.2% YoY), including those received by equity-method affiliates.
Revenue from completed construction contracts was JPY278.1bn (+6.6% YoY), operating profit JPY2.6bn (-61.4% YoY), recurring profit JPY6.5bn (-7.7% YoY), and net income attributable to owners of the parent JPY2.0bn (-79.4% YoY). Major contracts won during the year included a domestic plant for lithium-ion battery electrolyte production, several geothermal power plants in Indonesia, and an LNG-related facility in India. Despite higher revenue from completed construction contracts, operating profit declined YoY due to a drop in GPM caused by project delays. The company booked JPY4.1bn in equity in earnings of affiliates, narrowing the YoY decline in recurring profit relative to operating profit. Extraordinary losses included JPY1.4bn in impairment losses on fixed assets and roughly JPY3.0bn in tax-related expenses at subsidiaries.
As a result, net income attributable to owners of the parent dropped 79.4% YoY.

United Arrows Finds New Growth Path Through Korean Brand

By Michael Causton

United Arrows is best known for building its own chains but has had a choppy few years spent fixing merchandising, supply chains and a poor e-commerce unit.
It now believes it can take a leaf from the playbook of Mash Holdings by signing promising overseas brands as a way to accelerate growth.
The first of these is the Korean brand, Nice Weather, a sort of lifestyle convenience store beloved by Gen Z.

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Jul 08

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly – June Acceleration; Old Getting Sold and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly – June Acceleration; Old Getting Sold, Dividends the New Darling
DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM): Six Billion Peso Buy Back To Counter Negative News
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Spreads Near Record Highs After U.S. Market Holiday
Rio Tinto Sees Royal Gold Snap-Up Horizon Copper, Which Has a Controlling 25% Stake in Entree
ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand
Protean EGov: Navigating the PAN 2.0 Headwind and Charting a Diversified Future
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 07, 2025
Shanghai Conant Optical (2276 HKG): Lens of Strong Fundamentals Makes the Growth Optics Visible
Taiwan Tech Weekly: US Targets Malaysia & Thailand; Wind Power Fuels Taiwan’s AI Infrastructure Push
FAST RETAILING (9983 JP) | Q3 Preview: Upside Risk into Print, But Tariff Narrative Still Overhangs

Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly – June Acceleration; Old Getting Sold, Dividends the New Darling

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

The US$10.23bn net inflow through the Southbound Stock Connect in June marked a near-doubling from the May slump (US$5.85 bn), though it’s still lower than the 15-month average (US$12.1 bn).
Investors bought high dividend yield SOEs heavily (e.g. China Construction Bank), and sold Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba. Healthcare companies – Innovent Biologics and CSPC Pharma were bought, underscoring investors’ defensive stance.
Investors’ dividend yield fascination seems unabated. Some technology stocks (Tencent) do not seem overbought. Despite large buying, EV and ecommerce heavyweights (Meituan) are declining. Investors’ appetite in them could slump.

DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM): Six Billion Peso Buy Back To Counter Negative News

By Sameer Taneja

The DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM) share price has slipped from a peak of 65 Pesos on June 17th to under 30 Pesos/share as gaming restriction proposals dampen sentiment.
The bill proposed by Senator Gatchalian prohibits e-wallets, imposes high minimum cash-ins, and stricter advertising regulations. In addition, the Finance department is proposing a tax on online gaming.
The stock now trades at 8.3x PE FY25e. The company has announced a buyback of 6 billion pesos (5% of outstanding shares on current market capitalization).

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Spreads Near Record Highs After U.S. Market Holiday

TSMC: +26.3% Premium; Near Record High After U.S. 4th of July Holiday
UMC: +4.7% Premium; One of the Highest Levels in History — Short
ASE: +4.6% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level Before Going Long or Short

Rio Tinto Sees Royal Gold Snap-Up Horizon Copper, Which Has a Controlling 25% Stake in Entree

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Royal Gold Inc (RGLD US) launched a cash takeover bid of 2 CAD/share (85% premium) on Horizon Copper.
Recall, Horizon Copper (HCU CN) has a 25% controlling stake in Entree Resources (ETG CN).
Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)is too bureaucratic to counterbid as the CEO transition paralyses the organization.

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

By Nicolas Baratte

ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible)
But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away.
The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.

Protean EGov: Navigating the PAN 2.0 Headwind and Charting a Diversified Future

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Protean’s exclusion from the PAN 2.0 project raises concerns about potential long-term revenue loss, especially as tax services contribute significantly to its current business.
Protean’s strategic diversification into pension services, digital identity solutions, and international markets positions it well for long-term growth, reducing reliance on tax services.
With INR800 crore in cash reserves and zero debt, Protean is financially resilient, allowing it to invest in new growth areas, making it attractive for long-term investors despite short-term volatility.

Australian Broker Call Extra Edition – Jul 07, 2025

By FNArena

Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report

Shanghai Conant Optical (2276 HKG): Lens of Strong Fundamentals Makes the Growth Optics Visible

By Tina Banerjee

Shanghai Conant Optical (2276 HK) to utilize proceeds from its January placement for the research, development, design and manufacturing of lenses and vision solutions for smart glasses and XR headsets.
The company will construct an automated RX resin lens production line with a focus on high-end customized lenses, at a cost of $4M, to be funded by internal accruals.
The company declared that based on the preliminary assessments, it expects its 1H25 net profit to increase by 30% mainly due to strong volume growth and higher ASP.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: US Targets Malaysia & Thailand; Wind Power Fuels Taiwan’s AI Infrastructure Push

US Eyes New AI Chip Restrictions on Malaysia and Thailand
Chip and AI Boom Driving Taiwan’s Offshore Wind Expansion — Local Stocks to Watch
China Set to Become World’s Largest Semiconductor Foundry Hub by 2030 — But One Needs to Consider Leading Edge Capacity vs. Mature Capacity

FAST RETAILING (9983 JP) | Q3 Preview: Upside Risk into Print, But Tariff Narrative Still Overhangs

By Mark Chadwick

Q3 earnings risk skewed to upside: we forecast sales/OP of ¥857b/¥171b vs. Street’s ¥826b/¥152b.
Domestic Uniqlo trends strong; international segment likely resilient despite Inditex’s headline miss.
Tariff impact likely reiterated but remains a FY26 issue, not a near-term earnings swing factor.

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Jul 08

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Tencent, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Figma, ASML Holding NV, Wns Holdings Ltd Adr, Protean, aka Brands Holding Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly – June Acceleration; Old Getting Sold, Dividends the New Darling
Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Spreads Near Record Highs After U.S. Market Holiday
Figma IPO Preview: Fast-Growing Disruptor In The Design Software Market
ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand
Capgemini–WNS: A Strategic AI Play with Risk-Arb Clarity and Optionality
Protean EGov: Navigating the PAN 2.0 Headwind and Charting a Diversified Future
Figma IPO Valuation Analysis: Premium Multiple Is Deserved, High Growth and Rule of 60 Story
Taiwan Tech Weekly: US Targets Malaysia & Thailand; Wind Power Fuels Taiwan’s AI Infrastructure Push
AKA: Snapping the Store: Evolving & Advancing; Reiterate Buy, $30 Price Target

Asian Equities: Southbound Monthly – June Acceleration; Old Getting Sold, Dividends the New Darling

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

The US$10.23bn net inflow through the Southbound Stock Connect in June marked a near-doubling from the May slump (US$5.85 bn), though it’s still lower than the 15-month average (US$12.1 bn).
Investors bought high dividend yield SOEs heavily (e.g. China Construction Bank), and sold Tencent, Xiaomi, Alibaba. Healthcare companies – Innovent Biologics and CSPC Pharma were bought, underscoring investors’ defensive stance.
Investors’ dividend yield fascination seems unabated. Some technology stocks (Tencent) do not seem overbought. Despite large buying, EV and ecommerce heavyweights (Meituan) are declining. Investors’ appetite in them could slump.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: Spreads Near Record Highs After U.S. Market Holiday

TSMC: +26.3% Premium; Near Record High After U.S. 4th of July Holiday
UMC: +4.7% Premium; One of the Highest Levels in History — Short
ASE: +4.6% Premium; Wait for More Extreme Level Before Going Long or Short

Figma IPO Preview: Fast-Growing Disruptor In The Design Software Market

By Andrei Zakharov

Figma Inc., a VC-backed collaborative design software maker, filed for long-awaited IPO. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are the lead bankers on the offering.
The San Francisco-based company was valued at $12.5B in a 2024 tender offer. Figma is well-positioned with a strong brand among designers and a growing footprint in enterprise segment.
With strong financial profile and network effects, driven by large scale and efficient GTM strategy, the company remains the leader in collaborative design software market.

ASML Downgrades, Semi Production Equipment Demand

By Nicolas Baratte

ASML has been underperforming for 18 months. Recent downgrades are a delayed recognition of reality. ASML’s management goals for 2030 (10% revenue growth Cagr) are ok (plausible)
But growth is slowing fast in 2H25-1H26. Growth should re-accelerate in 2H26 as the impact of China and Mature node lower spending, multiple delays (Intel, Samsung) is fading away.
The stock is getting cheaper, but lacks catalysts for another 2-3 quarters. Trading at 25x forward PEx, that’s reasonable given the firm’s intrinsic qualities.

Capgemini–WNS: A Strategic AI Play with Risk-Arb Clarity and Optionality

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Capgemini to acquire WNS for $76.50 per share in cash; deal implies a 28% premium to VWAP and aims to create a global leader in AI-powered intelligent operations.
WNS traded at a discount to peers pre-offer; Capgemini expects meaningful synergies (~$8.63/share NPV), justifying the 16x P/E takeout. No termination fee is disclosed publicly.
Interloper risk is modest; deal certainty is high. With a 3.83% gross spread (pre-market) and 8.15% annualized return, the arbitrage setup is attractive barring regulatory or shareholder surprises.

Protean EGov: Navigating the PAN 2.0 Headwind and Charting a Diversified Future

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Protean’s exclusion from the PAN 2.0 project raises concerns about potential long-term revenue loss, especially as tax services contribute significantly to its current business.
Protean’s strategic diversification into pension services, digital identity solutions, and international markets positions it well for long-term growth, reducing reliance on tax services.
With INR800 crore in cash reserves and zero debt, Protean is financially resilient, allowing it to invest in new growth areas, making it attractive for long-term investors despite short-term volatility.

Figma IPO Valuation Analysis: Premium Multiple Is Deserved, High Growth and Rule of 60 Story

By Andrei Zakharov

Figma Inc. is planning to go public in the second half of July. The amount the company intends to raise is not yet disclosed, but it’s likely to exceed $1B.
I like Figma’s high growth, rule of 60 story, cash flow generation and solid balance sheet. They are profitable and still growing 40%+ YoY while doing $800M+ in LTM revenue.
I believe Figma’s premium multiple is justified given its best-in-class metrics, top-tier VC investors and Adobe’s attempt to acquire the design software maker for ~$20B in 2022.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: US Targets Malaysia & Thailand; Wind Power Fuels Taiwan’s AI Infrastructure Push

By Small Cap Consumer Research

US Eyes New AI Chip Restrictions on Malaysia and Thailand
Chip and AI Boom Driving Taiwan’s Offshore Wind Expansion — Local Stocks to Watch
China Set to Become World’s Largest Semiconductor Foundry Hub by 2030 — But One Needs to Consider Leading Edge Capacity vs. Mature Capacity

AKA: Snapping the Store: Evolving & Advancing; Reiterate Buy, $30 Price Target

We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $30 price target for A.k.A. Brands after visiting Princess Polly stores in California and the Culture Kings flagship in Las Vegas.
We believe overall momentum in the brand has remained strong, with continued high demand and the Princess Polly customer quickly snapping up impressive fashion items at full prices.
The theme for Princess Polly remains expansion, from the opening of the newest store (in Glendale), to adding the potential to display 20%+ more units, increasing the level of newness even further and tying offerings close to their debut on the website.

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Jul 08

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Entree Resources, Crude Oil, South32 Ltd, Base Oil, Goliath Resources and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Rio Tinto Sees Royal Gold Snap-Up Horizon Copper, Which Has a Controlling 25% Stake in Entree
Rising OPEC+ Supply & Weak Demand To Drag Crude Price Lower
South32 Ltd – The Overnight Report: Tariff Truce’s Soft Extension
How Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Will Affect Commodity Markets
Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July
Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 July
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 July
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/27] WTI Climbed Higher, But Oversupply Jitters Capped Gains
Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 July
GOTRF: Zacks SCR Update of Coverage of Goliath Resources Ltd.

Rio Tinto Sees Royal Gold Snap-Up Horizon Copper, Which Has a Controlling 25% Stake in Entree

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Royal Gold Inc (RGLD US) launched a cash takeover bid of 2 CAD/share (85% premium) on Horizon Copper.
Recall, Horizon Copper (HCU CN) has a 25% controlling stake in Entree Resources (ETG CN).
Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN)is too bureaucratic to counterbid as the CEO transition paralyses the organization.

Rising OPEC+ Supply & Weak Demand To Drag Crude Price Lower

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

Crude oil soared on conflict and sank just as fast on ceasefire. Prices surged to a 5-month high following the U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities.
June’s price action was driven by geopolitical shocks, not sustained fundamentals. Oversupply concerns remain dominant.
On 05/Jul, eight key members of OPEC+ alliance agreed to raise oil output in August. Instead of the anticipated 411kbpd increase, the group opted for a steeper hike of 548kbpd.

South32 Ltd – The Overnight Report: Tariff Truce’s Soft Extension

By FNArena

A global perspective on what happened overnight

How Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill Will Affect Commodity Markets

By The Commodity Report

During the week, Trump muscled his Big Beautiful Bill through a divided congress. With that, the bill got passed even right before 4th of July.
The nearly-900 page bill includes a tax-cut and spending package that is projected to increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion over a decade.
Cost-saving to reduce the government debt seems to be completely from the table. The DODGE department seems compared to this bill like a joke.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 July

Asia’s base oils price-premium to Singapore gasoil price stays at elevated levels for heavy grades, lower-than-usual levels for light grades.
Base oils margins incentivize refiners to maintain higher production levels for heavy grades, and to consider adjusting production levels for light grades.
Any such moves to maintain or adjust output would coincide with rise in regional production capacity following completion of most plant-maintenance work.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 July

US Group II export base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil starts Q3 2025 at slightly lower levels than at start of Q3 2024.
In Q3 2024, US base oils price premium to VGO extends rise after surging from end-Q1 2024.
US base oils price-premium to VGO extends surge in Q3 2024 even with less feasible arbitrage to outlets like Europe, Middle East and India.

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 7 July

Asia’s base oils demand could weaken in coming weeks amid seasonal slowdown in consumption.
Signs of more prolonged and widespread drop in regional lube consumption from year-earlier levels would magnify impact of seasonal slowdown.
Weaker demand in recent months cushions impact of tighter regional supply during that period.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/27] WTI Climbed Higher, But Oversupply Jitters Capped Gains

By Suhas Reddy

WTI futures rose 2.3% for the week ending 03/Jul, buoyed by Iran’s standoff with the UN and stronger-than-expected economic data from China.
The U.S. rig count fell by eight to 539. The oil rig count fell by seven to 425, while gas rigs dropped by one to 108.
WTI OI PCR fell to 0.90 on 03/Jul compared to 0.93 on 27/Jun. Call OI rose by 3.3% WoW, while put OI inched up by 0.6%.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 July

By Small Cap Consumer Research

Global base oils values mostly hold firm versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, even as they remain down from recent highs in Q2 2025.
Firm base oils margins coincide with strong diesel premium to crude oil that incentivizes refiners to boost output of the motor fuel.
Any such move would likely impact light-grade base oils more than heavy grades, whose firm margins incentivize refiners to maintain high output of the product.

GOTRF: Zacks SCR Update of Coverage of Goliath Resources Ltd.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Goliath Resources provides investors with exposure to gold, silver, and copper resource exploration, as well as leverage to an increasing in-ground inventory with discovery upside, during a gold price market that has reached new all-time highs.
The downside is limited by the expected significant positive news flow ongoing in 2025.
Since our last update, the Company raised more than C$40 million at premiums to fund and expand the 2025 drill program.

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Jul 08

Daily Brief Industrials: LS Corp, Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200, MegaRobo Technologies, Toyo Engineering, Ilika and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

KRX Virtually Locks In Parentco Payout Rules for Spin-Off IPOs
Tariff Risk Returns: Market Signals and Asia’s Volatility Momentum
MegaRobo Pre-IPO Tearsheet
Toyo Engineering (6330 JP): Coverage Initiation
Friday Take Away: 27 June 2025

KRX Virtually Locks In Parentco Payout Rules for Spin-Off IPOs

By Sanghyun Park

KRX is set to spotlight Philenergy’s 2023 IPO as the model, pushing spin-off deals to reward parentco holders—like Philoptics’ move to hand out IPO shares.
Philoptics doubled pre-Philenergy IPO on crazy momentum, then round-tripped post-listing. Setups like this hint at bigger parentco moves ahead in future spin-off IPO plays.
SK Enmove IPO is scrapped; but SK Plasma (SK Discovery) still live; LS E-Link (LS Corp) also likely to be an early test case for the new parentco compensation framework.

Tariff Risk Returns: Market Signals and Asia’s Volatility Momentum

By Gaudenz Schneider

Context: The 90-day pause on US reciprocal tariffs expires on July 9, 2025. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India, now face a return to steep US tariffs.
Highlights: Markets reacted sharply to the original tariff announcement in April, with volatility peaking. While implied volatility eased in May, it has since climbed again, suggesting rising investor concern.
Why Read: As markets face renewed risk of stress, this Insight helps investors understand which markets and sectors are most exposed, how volatility is evolving, and how best to position.

MegaRobo Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

MegaRobo Technologies (MRT HK) is looking to raise at least US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by Morgan Stanley, Huatai, Deutsche Bank, CCB International.
It is a leading provider of autonomous agents in robotic applications in China, dedicated to improving productivity and driving innovation for businesses across both laboratory and manufacturing settings.
It serves a diversified customer base with over 880 customers. Key account customers newly acquired in 2022, had a repurchase rate of 74%, and a revenue retention rate of 115%.

Toyo Engineering (6330 JP): Coverage Initiation

By Shared Research

In FY03/25, orders stood at JPY244.2bn (-47.2% YoY), including those received by equity-method affiliates.
Revenue from completed construction contracts was JPY278.1bn (+6.6% YoY), operating profit JPY2.6bn (-61.4% YoY), recurring profit JPY6.5bn (-7.7% YoY), and net income attributable to owners of the parent JPY2.0bn (-79.4% YoY). Major contracts won during the year included a domestic plant for lithium-ion battery electrolyte production, several geothermal power plants in Indonesia, and an LNG-related facility in India. Despite higher revenue from completed construction contracts, operating profit declined YoY due to a drop in GPM caused by project delays. The company booked JPY4.1bn in equity in earnings of affiliates, narrowing the YoY decline in recurring profit relative to operating profit. Extraordinary losses included JPY1.4bn in impairment losses on fixed assets and roughly JPY3.0bn in tax-related expenses at subsidiaries.
As a result, net income attributable to owners of the parent dropped 79.4% YoY.

Friday Take Away: 27 June 2025

By Hybridan

The developer of solid-state battery technology will be reporting Finals to April 2025 on 17 July.
Ilika has developed ceramic-based lithium-ion technology which differentiates it from existing batteries by offering competitive energy density and charge times, while being inherently safe and easier to recycle.
There was cash of £10m at the Interims and in May 2025 a further £4.3m was raised at 33p a share.

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Jul 08

Daily Brief Consumer: DigiPlus Interactive , Marui Group, Travel Food Services Ltd, Aristocrat Leisure, Fast Retailing, Health And Happiness (H&H), NIQ Global Intelligence, United Arrows, Betterware de Mexico Sab de CV and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM): Six Billion Peso Buy Back To Counter Negative News
Marui Group Placement: Clean up by Toho; Improving Fundamentals
Travel Food Services: $250M OFS, Niche Travel QSR but Valuations Seem Full Amidst near Term Weakness
Travel Food Services IPO – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation
Australian Broker Call *Extra* Edition – Jul 07, 2025
FAST RETAILING (9983 JP) | Q3 Preview: Upside Risk into Print, But Tariff Narrative Still Overhangs
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
NIQ Global Intelligence Plc (NIQ): Peeking at the Prospectus of a Consumer Intelligence Company
United Arrows Finds New Growth Path Through Korean Brand
BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: Shifting the Model?; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT

DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM): Six Billion Peso Buy Back To Counter Negative News

By Sameer Taneja

The DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM) share price has slipped from a peak of 65 Pesos on June 17th to under 30 Pesos/share as gaming restriction proposals dampen sentiment.
The bill proposed by Senator Gatchalian prohibits e-wallets, imposes high minimum cash-ins, and stricter advertising regulations. In addition, the Finance department is proposing a tax on online gaming.
The stock now trades at 8.3x PE FY25e. The company has announced a buyback of 6 billion pesos (5% of outstanding shares on current market capitalization).

Marui Group Placement: Clean up by Toho; Improving Fundamentals

By Nicholas Tan

A group of shareholders are looking to raise US$184m from selling their respective stakes in Marui Group (8252 JP) .
While the deal shouldn’t come as a surprise, given the ongoing cross-shareholding unwind narrative in Japan, the timing of such a selldown isn’t always certain.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Travel Food Services: $250M OFS, Niche Travel QSR but Valuations Seem Full Amidst near Term Weakness

By Himanshu Dugar

TFS operates QSRs and lounge in airports. They are present in the top 14 airports in India accounting for 26% of Indian-airport QSR and ~45% of the Indian-airport Lounge revenues
FY26 performance is expected to be flattish as 1H results will lap impact of Adani operated airports being moved from TFS books to Joint venture with 25% stake.
FY27 onwards growth is estimated at 15+% with EBITDA margins of 34-37%. We estimate FY27 revenues of ~2,000cr with PAT of 450-500cr implying the deal is being priced at 30-33x

Travel Food Services IPO – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Valuation

By Akshat Shah

Travel Food Services Ltd (1450229D IN) is looking to raise about US$233m in its India IPO.
Travel Food Services Limited (TFS) operates a network of travel quick service restaurants (Travel QSRs) and private lounges in airports.
We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the RHP updates and IPO valuations.

Australian Broker Call Extra Edition – Jul 07, 2025

By FNArena

Extra Edition of the Broker Call Report

FAST RETAILING (9983 JP) | Q3 Preview: Upside Risk into Print, But Tariff Narrative Still Overhangs

By Mark Chadwick

Q3 earnings risk skewed to upside: we forecast sales/OP of ¥857b/¥171b vs. Street’s ¥826b/¥152b.
Domestic Uniqlo trends strong; international segment likely resilient despite Inditex’s headline miss.
Tariff impact likely reiterated but remains a FY26 issue, not a near-term earnings swing factor.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Health and Happiness (H&H), Tata Steel
The US market was closed for Independence Day on Friday. US President Donald Trump passed his signature tax cut and spending Bill into law on Friday, after it was approved by Congress in a 218-214 vote on Thursday.
The fiscal package includes tax cuts, lower spending on social programmes (e.g. federal food stamps and college student loans) and the elimination of tax benefits encouraging the use of clean energies. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that the new legislation will add more than USD 3 tn to the country’s deficit over the next decade.

NIQ Global Intelligence Plc (NIQ): Peeking at the Prospectus of a Consumer Intelligence Company

By IPO Boutique

The company, better known as NielsenIQ, describes itself as a leading global consumer intelligence company positioned at the nexus of brands, retailers and consumers.
The company is private equity backed with a majority stake owned by Advent International.
With revenues over the last three months relatively flat versus the year prior, it will be “interesting” to see how (or if) the market “embraces” this company.

United Arrows Finds New Growth Path Through Korean Brand

By Michael Causton

United Arrows is best known for building its own chains but has had a choppy few years spent fixing merchandising, supply chains and a poor e-commerce unit.
It now believes it can take a leaf from the playbook of Mash Holdings by signing promising overseas brands as a way to accelerate growth.
The first of these is the Korean brand, Nice Weather, a sort of lifestyle convenience store beloved by Gen Z.

BWMX: Snapping the Catalog: Shifting the Model?; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT

We are reiterating our Buy rating.
projections and $22.50 price target for Betterware de Mexico after reviewing the July 2025 catalog.
The catalog story for 2025 has been greater newness, slowly reducing the number of discounted SKUs to levels at or below last year and raising overall pricing (to the highest levels in the last three years).

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Jul 08

Most Read: Horizon Robotics, Shin Kong Financial Holding, Hanwha Corporation, Pop Mart International Group L, NTT DC REIT, FWD Group Holdings, OCI Holdings , China Longyuan Power, Dah Sing Financial, Tongyang Life Insurance and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change
Shin Kong/Taishin Merger Flows and Perhaps Unforeseen Problems
Minority Shareholders of Hanwha Corp Preferred Shares Demand Better Protection
HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace J&T Global (1519 HK)
NTT DC REIT IPO: Global Index Inclusions Later This Year + A Kicker
FWD IPO Trading – Tepid Demand
Korea’s Next Policy Trade: Locals’ Screens for Dividend Tax Reform Plays
A/H Premium Tracker (To 4 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys Wide Spread Hs
Dah Sing Financial (2356 HK): Discounts On Discounts
A Tender Offer of Remaining Shares & Delisting of Tongyang Life Insurance by Woori Financial?

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: Universe Expansion Could Lead to One Change

The review period for the September rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index ended on 30 June, the changes will be announced on 22 August and implemented on 5 September.
No constituent changes will result in a one-way turnover of 4.1% and that will mean a round-trip trade of HK$15.2bn (US$1.94bn).
An expansion of the index universe could lead to one constituent change and that increases the one-way turnover to 6.2% and the round-trip trade to HK$23.1bn (US$2.94bn).

Shin Kong/Taishin Merger Flows and Perhaps Unforeseen Problems

By Travis Lundy

A new factoid about the merger between the Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) merger of FHCs came to my notice last week.
There is withholding tax on a portion of the Taishin shares to be received. The last day of trading will be 11 July 2025. Expect repercussions.
This week will see multiple index events, combined with the risk arb events, and the WHT may affect how passive investors trade the events.

Minority Shareholders of Hanwha Corp Preferred Shares Demand Better Protection

Minority shareholders of Hanwha Corp preferred shares are demanding better protection (such as converting preferred shares into common shares) and are criticizing the potential delisting of its shares.
We provide four major scenarios that could occur for Hanwha Corp preferred shares (000885 KS) in the coming weeks.
The fact that Hanwha Group companies are on such positive momentum, it would be in the best interest for Hanwha to improve shareholder value of the Hanwha Corp’s preferred shares.

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Pop Mart (9992 HK) Could Replace J&T Global (1519 HK)

The review period for the September rebalance of the HSCEI INDEX ended on 30 June, the results will be announced on 22 August and will be implemented on 5 September.
Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) could be added to the index while J&T Global Express (1519 HK) could be deleted from the index.
There is a possibility of Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) being added to the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) as well.

NTT DC REIT IPO: Global Index Inclusions Later This Year + A Kicker

NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) could raise up to US$824m in its IPO if the overallotment option is exercised and the stock is expected to start trading on 14 July.
Cornerstone investors will own 16.8% of shares out following the IPO but there is no lock-up on these shares. The sponsor will own 20%/25% depending on whether overallotment is exercised.
NTT DC REIT (NTTDCR SP) should be added to the smallcap segment of global indices in November and December while inclusion in local indices will take a lot longer.

FWD IPO Trading – Tepid Demand

By Sumeet Singh

FWD Group Holdings (1828 HK), a pan-Asian life insurer founded by Richard Li, raised around US$442m in its HK IPO.
FWD is a pan-Asia life insurer operating in ten markets including Hong Kong (and Macau), Thailand (and Cambodia), Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia.
We looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note we talk about the trading dynamics.

Korea’s Next Policy Trade: Locals’ Screens for Dividend Tax Reform Plays

By Sanghyun Park

With the governance trade fading, local desks are rotating into dividend tax reform—bipartisan tailwinds and rising political chatter are driving early positioning ahead of potential rerating.
Local desks are screening for names with 35%+ payout and 30%+ individual ownership, key thresholds tied to the ruling party’s dividend tax reform bill gaining traction in policy circles.
The real trade is in names with individual top holders—direct beneficiaries of the tax reform—most exposed to theme flows and likely to lead on dividend hikes if the bill passes.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 4 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Continues as SB Buys Wide Spread Hs

By Travis Lundy

AH premia flat among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It has paid well to be long wide H discounts.
Last week I said, “It has paid to be long the H on those H/A pairs with the biggest H discounts. I would continue to ride that trend.” Ride on.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers. Technical issue delayed this week’s Monitor.

Dah Sing Financial (2356 HK): Discounts On Discounts

By David Blennerhassett

In the setup/unwind tables highlighted in StubWorld: Haw Par Looking Stretched, I see Dah Sing Financial (440 HK) at trading “cheap” to 74.4%-held Dah Sing Banking (2356 HK).
I see DSF at a 51% discount to NAV, around its one-year average. However the simple ratio (DSF/DSB) and implied stub are at multi-year lows.
Separately, DSB is trading at a ~62% discount to NAV – applying its 13.2%-holding in Bank of Chongqing (1963 HK) – around a one-year high. This is, however, a weak stub.

A Tender Offer of Remaining Shares & Delisting of Tongyang Life Insurance by Woori Financial?