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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 26
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Singapore Market Roundup (25-Dec-2024): DBS positive on Seatrium after FPU win; monitoring probe. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Singapore Market Roundup (25-Dec-2024): DBS positive on Seatrium after FPU win; monitoring probe.
  • Thematic Report: Is India Shifting from Essentials to Experiences in Consumer Spending?

Singapore Market Roundup (25-Dec-2024): DBS positive on Seatrium after FPU win; monitoring probe.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • DBS remains optimistic on Seatrium after securing FPU contract despite ongoing investigation.
  • Maybank Securities shows positivity towards SingPost following firing of three executives.
  • Both companies are confident in their respective prospects moving forward, exhibiting strong faith in their decisions.

Thematic Report: Is India Shifting from Essentials to Experiences in Consumer Spending?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Over the last decade, Indian consumer spending has shifted from essentials like food and housing toward services like healthcare and education, reflecting rising incomes and evolving priorities.
  • Although food and beverages remain the largest spending category, their share decreased from 30.5% to 28.2% in the last decade.
  • Within the food and beverage category, there is a growing preference for protein-rich foods and packaged foods while spending on staples like bread and cereals has decreased.

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Dec 26
0

Daily Brief ECM: Pre-IPO Duality Biotherapeutics – Has the Potential to Surpass RemeGen and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Pre-IPO Duality Biotherapeutics – Has the Potential to Surpass RemeGen

Pre-IPO Duality Biotherapeutics – Has the Potential to Surpass RemeGen

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Founder Zhu Zhongyuan is a key figure in biotech landscape.So, when Duality first started its entrepreneurial financing, the process was smooth and the starting point of Duality was not low.
  • The R&D progress of Duality’s pipelines is slower than competing candidates, so they would be in a passive position after market launch. So, Duality’s valuation would be lower than Kelun Bio.
  • Duality’s pipeline still has “good stories” to tell. There’s a chance its valuation could be higher than RemeGen, whose business model/investment logic have been falsified due to weak sales data.

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Dec 26
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Korea: Potential Relegations from K League 1 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea: Potential Relegations from K League 1

Korea: Potential Relegations from K League 1

By Brian Freitas

  • There are quite a few stocks in Korea that have underperformed their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February.
  • There are still 3 weeks left for the stocks to redeem themselves and avoid relegation from the K League, so watch out for big price moves.
  • Based on our estimate of passive assets, trackers will need to trade between US$45m to US$114m of the stocks. Impact will vary between 2.6x-30x of ADV to trade.

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Dec 26
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Micron. So Long Legacy & Hello There HBM and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Micron. So Long Legacy & Hello There HBM, Data Center & Leading Edge
  • Takashimaya (8233 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (26-Dec-2024): AI inkjet tech offers precise semiconductor coating.
  • Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) – Set up for a Stronger 2025
  • United Microelectronics: Key QCOM Advanced Packaging Win Signals Client Shift Away from TSMC
  • Zuiko Corp (6279 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

Micron. So Long Legacy & Hello There HBM, Data Center & Leading Edge

By William Keating

  • Micron’s Q1F25 met expectations on key metrics but the ~9% downward guidance for the current quarter sent the share price into a tailspin
  • Consumer-Related inventory issues and China competition were highlighted as the root causes for the surprise downward guide
  • Micron is ok to cede legacy products to China competition and focus instead on the much more lucrative leading edge products, especially HBM. The transition could be rocky however

Takashimaya (8233 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Operating revenue increased YoY across segments, driven by domestic and overseas department stores, and commercial property development.
  • Operating profit rose YoY, with significant growth in Domestic Department Store, Overseas Commercial Property Development, and Finance segments.
  • Takashimaya Financial Partners Co., Ltd. saw increased revenue and profit due to higher transaction volumes and credit card income.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (26-Dec-2024): AI inkjet tech offers precise semiconductor coating.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • AI inkjet breakthrough in semiconductor manufacturing promises more precise coating, revolutionizing tech industry processes.
  • China’s price war in EV sector causes financial chaos and supply chain disruptions for 2 years, impacting global market.
  • US House considers OLED import ban following patent dispute with Samsung Display Corporation, keeping spotlight on patent issues.

Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) – Set up for a Stronger 2025

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Erajaya Swasembada booked a strong performance in 3Q2024 but 4Q2024 is likely to be the peak seasonal quarter for sales, even with no sales of iPhone 16.
  • Chinese brands have accelerated the availability of affordable handsets, which should help to drive sales. JD Sports will be consolidated in December and Grand Lucky is performing well. 
  • Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) will continue to expand Erajaya Digitial in 2025, Erablue stores already be at 76 stores by November. Valuations remain attractive along with a strong growth profile. 

United Microelectronics: Key QCOM Advanced Packaging Win Signals Client Shift Away from TSMC

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • UMC Secures Key Qualcomm Advanced Packaging Order; Breakthrough in High-Growth Chip Supply Chain Segment
  • Why TSMC Remains Critical for QCOM Manufacturing, Yet UMC Provides a Strong Strategic Counterbalance
  • UMC Must Prove Itself, but QCOM Win Sparks Optimism for Sentiment and Outlook Recovery — Maintain TSMC as Structural Long & Rate UMC as Outperform

Zuiko Corp (6279 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue decreased to JPY13.9bn, a 17.6% YoY decline, with significant drops in Japan and China sales.
  • Operating loss of JPY303mn and recurring loss of JPY176mn were reported, with a net loss of JPY734mn.
  • FY02/25 revenue forecast revised to JPY20.0bn, with expected operating profit and recurring profit declines.

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Dec 26
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung Engineering and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea: Potential Relegations from K League 1

Korea: Potential Relegations from K League 1

By Brian Freitas

  • There are quite a few stocks in Korea that have underperformed their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February.
  • There are still 3 weeks left for the stocks to redeem themselves and avoid relegation from the K League, so watch out for big price moves.
  • Based on our estimate of passive assets, trackers will need to trade between US$45m to US$114m of the stocks. Impact will vary between 2.6x-30x of ADV to trade.

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Dec 26
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Erajaya Swasembada and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) – Set up for a Stronger 2025

Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) – Set up for a Stronger 2025

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Erajaya Swasembada booked a strong performance in 3Q2024 but 4Q2024 is likely to be the peak seasonal quarter for sales, even with no sales of iPhone 16.
  • Chinese brands have accelerated the availability of affordable handsets, which should help to drive sales. JD Sports will be consolidated in December and Grand Lucky is performing well. 
  • Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ) will continue to expand Erajaya Digitial in 2025, Erablue stores already be at 76 stores by November. Valuations remain attractive along with a strong growth profile. 

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Dec 26
0

Daily Brief United States: Micron Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Micron. So Long Legacy & Hello There HBM, Data Center & Leading Edge

Micron. So Long Legacy & Hello There HBM, Data Center & Leading Edge

By William Keating

  • Micron’s Q1F25 met expectations on key metrics but the ~9% downward guidance for the current quarter sent the share price into a tailspin
  • Consumer-Related inventory issues and China competition were highlighted as the root causes for the surprise downward guide
  • Micron is ok to cede legacy products to China competition and focus instead on the much more lucrative leading edge products, especially HBM. The transition could be rocky however

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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Dec 26
0

Daily Brief Japan: Takashimaya, Zuiko Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Takashimaya (8233 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update
  • Zuiko Corp (6279 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

Takashimaya (8233 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Operating revenue increased YoY across segments, driven by domestic and overseas department stores, and commercial property development.
  • Operating profit rose YoY, with significant growth in Domestic Department Store, Overseas Commercial Property Development, and Finance segments.
  • Takashimaya Financial Partners Co., Ltd. saw increased revenue and profit due to higher transaction volumes and credit card income.

Zuiko Corp (6279 JP): Q3 FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue decreased to JPY13.9bn, a 17.6% YoY decline, with significant drops in Japan and China sales.
  • Operating loss of JPY303mn and recurring loss of JPY176mn were reported, with a net loss of JPY734mn.
  • FY02/25 revenue forecast revised to JPY20.0bn, with expected operating profit and recurring profit declines.

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Dec 26
0

Daily Brief China: Duality Biotherapeutics and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Pre-IPO Duality Biotherapeutics – Has the Potential to Surpass RemeGen

Pre-IPO Duality Biotherapeutics – Has the Potential to Surpass RemeGen

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Founder Zhu Zhongyuan is a key figure in biotech landscape.So, when Duality first started its entrepreneurial financing, the process was smooth and the starting point of Duality was not low.
  • The R&D progress of Duality’s pipelines is slower than competing candidates, so they would be in a passive position after market launch. So, Duality’s valuation would be lower than Kelun Bio.
  • Duality’s pipeline still has “good stories” to tell. There’s a chance its valuation could be higher than RemeGen, whose business model/investment logic have been falsified due to weak sales data.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
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  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Dec 26
0

Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Honda Motor, Posco DX, LG CNS, Kioxia Holdings , Hyundai Motor , Micron Technology, Matsuya Co Ltd, Samsung Engineering, SGX Rubber Future TSR20 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • 7&I (3382 JP) – Share Price Dipping Deeper Means Dipping Toes Deeper
  • Honda (7267 JP) – MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback
  • KOSPI Size Indices: Overlap Between Global Passive Selling & Downward Migrations
  • LG CNS IPO: Limited Float Pushes Back Passive Buying
  • ECM Weekly (22nd Dec 2024) – LG CNS, Kioxia, Vishal Mega, IGI, Sai Life, Ventive, Paras
  • Korea FSC Official: New Rule to Block “Treasury Stock Magic” Takes Effect on 31st
  • Micron. So Long Legacy & Hello There HBM, Data Center & Leading Edge
  • Matsuya Targets ¥20 Billion Online
  • Korea: Potential Relegations from K League 1
  • Vietnam Rubber Group (VRG) Showcases Its EUDR Preparedness At Annual Rubber Conference

7&I (3382 JP) – Share Price Dipping Deeper Means Dipping Toes Deeper

By Travis Lundy

  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) shares are in a lull here. Winter doldrums without news as the Ito consortium gets its ducks in a row and 7&i sells York.
  • Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) is waiting patiently. They have the ability to wait, and to fund, and pay up. 
  • An article/show is causing a dip today on top of last week’s weakness. This is a dip to buy.

Honda (7267 JP) – MAMMOTH New ¥1.1Trln Stock Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, along with the announcement of Memorandum of Understanding between Honda Motor (7267 JP), and Nissan Motor (7201 JP) to work towards negotiating a Joint Holding Company by June 2025… 
  • Honda cancelled their existing ¥100bn buyback, and initiated a truly mammoth NEW Buyback – up to 1.1 billion shares (23.7% of TSO), spending up to ¥1.1trln on market through Dec-2025.
  • Assuming the stock pops, it is probably “only” worth 15-18%, but that’s still a LOT. At that rate it boosts BVPS by 8+% on its own, and EPS by 17%.

KOSPI Size Indices: Overlap Between Global Passive Selling & Downward Migrations

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the March rebalance of the KOSPI Size Indices commenced on 1 December and will end on 28 February.
  • A quarter of the way through the review period, we forecast 37 migrating stocks. Among new listings, 1 could be added to LargeCap, 3 to MidCap and 2 to SmallCap.
  • Four downward migrations were deleted from a global index in November. Now, three more downward migrations could be deleted from the same global index in February.

LG CNS IPO: Limited Float Pushes Back Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • LG CNS (LGCNSZ KS) is looking to raise up to KRW 1,199bn (US$830m), valuing the company at KRW 6 trillion (US$4.15bn) at the top end of the IPO price range.
  • As a member of the IT sector, inclusion in the KOSPI200 Index will only take place via Fast Entry (near impossible) or as a large-scale company.
  • Inclusion in global indices could commence in September 2025 and will be easier if the identity of the pre-IPO minority shareholders is disclosed or if the strategic investors sell.

ECM Weekly (22nd Dec 2024) – LG CNS, Kioxia, Vishal Mega, IGI, Sai Life, Ventive, Paras

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, all of the India listings managed to do well, while Kioxia Holdings (285A JP) managed to provide steady returns as well.
  • On the placements front, there were only a few deals in India, led by Mankind Pharma. 

Korea FSC Official: New Rule to Block “Treasury Stock Magic” Takes Effect on 31st

By Sanghyun Park

  • Korea FSC announced on the 24th that the updated Capital Markets Act rules, approved by the Cabinet, will take effect on the 31st.
  • Banning new shares to treasury stocks during spin-offs could shift board focus in Korea, reducing big shareholder influence and prioritizing the broader shareholder base.
  • The capital markets law change could shift shareholder returns from buybacks to dividends, marking a key inflection point for traders, especially in Korea’s preferred stock market.

Micron. So Long Legacy & Hello There HBM, Data Center & Leading Edge

By William Keating

  • Micron’s Q1F25 met expectations on key metrics but the ~9% downward guidance for the current quarter sent the share price into a tailspin
  • Consumer-Related inventory issues and China competition were highlighted as the root causes for the surprise downward guide
  • Micron is ok to cede legacy products to China competition and focus instead on the much more lucrative leading edge products, especially HBM. The transition could be rocky however

Matsuya Targets ¥20 Billion Online

By Michael Causton

  • Department store sales to locals plummeted in October, resulting in the first decline in 32 months.
  • While sluggish clothing sales was one factor, another was crowded luxury concessions putting off locals from visiting.
  • Matsuya thinks it has the answer: keeping locals and tourists separate using a new online store.

Korea: Potential Relegations from K League 1

By Brian Freitas

  • There are quite a few stocks in Korea that have underperformed their peers and could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February.
  • There are still 3 weeks left for the stocks to redeem themselves and avoid relegation from the K League, so watch out for big price moves.
  • Based on our estimate of passive assets, trackers will need to trade between US$45m to US$114m of the stocks. Impact will vary between 2.6x-30x of ADV to trade.

Vietnam Rubber Group (VRG) Showcases Its EUDR Preparedness At Annual Rubber Conference

By Vinod Nedumudy

  • 40-45% of production forest areas in Vietnam certified for sustainable  management 
  • VRG sold over 800 tons EUDR rubber netting an additional US$250/ton
  • Member firms abroad readying to sign contracts on EUDR rubber

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