
In today’s briefing:
- GMO Internet (4784) – Squeeze-Able So Squeezing, Offering Likely Gets Pulled – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE
- NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine
- S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance
- Xero (XRO AU): Index Flows Following the Capital Raise
- Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Update with New Important Market Consultation Implications
- FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
- Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Lockup Expiry Ahead. After 2000% Rally, Is There Still Shine Left?
- Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC’s Takeover
- EB Event Trade Setup: HD KSOE Lining up a New Deal with HD Hyundai Heavy as the Underlying
- Japan Activist Watch | Square Enix, DaitoTrust, Iriso & INES

GMO Internet (4784) – Squeeze-Able So Squeezing, Offering Likely Gets Pulled – AVOID LIKE THE PLAGUE
- GMO Internet (4784 JP) was created by the reverse takeover of a listed cad/media company by its parent company’s “internet infrastructure” business. GMO Internet Group ended up with ~98%.
- In the process, the stock rose 500%. Now, as part of its promise to the TSE allowing TSE Prime membership for the extraordinarily low-float target, the parent is offering shares.
- The squeeze has it at 180x Dec25e EPS, 111x EBIT, 70x book. The offering likely gets pulled and the stock isn’t shortable… so what next? Pain, and an ECLWO.
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance: HUGE Turnover and Trade as Financials Shine
- There are 20 changes a side for the Nifty200 Momentum30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 27 June. We had correctly forecast 39 of the 40 changes.
- Estimated one-way turnover is 68.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of INR 160bn (US$1.9bn). There are 22 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
- The Financials sector has 9 net inclusions to the index while the Information Technology and Consumer Discretionary sectors have 2 net deletions each.
S&P/ASX Indices: Proposed Methodology Changes & The BIG September Rebalance
- S&P DJI have proposed methodology changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices to enhance representativeness and more quickly reflecting changing market conditions.
- The main changes are lowering the minimum float threshold, shortening the market cap calculation period and the liquidity calculation period, and including buffers for additions and deletions.
- We currently forecast 47 changes to the S&P/ASX family of indices in September and the short market cap computation period could lead to more change over the next two months.
Xero (XRO AU): Index Flows Following the Capital Raise
- Xero Ltd (XRO AU) has entered into a binding agreement to acquire Melio Limited for an upfront cash consideration of US$2.5bn in cash and Xero Ltd (XRO AU) stock.
- The cash consideration is being funded mainly through a fully underwritten A$1.85bn (US$1.2bn) institutional placement. There is also a non-underwritten Share Purchase Plan to raise around A$200m.
- Given the large size of the institutional placement, there will be an increase in index shares and the passive buying that follows should mop up over 20% of the placement.
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep25: Update with New Important Market Consultation Implications
- Couple of days ago, I published my index change expectations for the ASX index family in the run up to the September 2025 index review (link).
- After market close yesterday, the index provider announced a market consultation on potential changes to the index methodology which could become effective during the September review if it gets approved.
- This is a short insight with our revised ranks for the potential ADDs and DELs assuming the market consultation gets approved.
FWD Group (1828 HK): Offering Details & Index Entry Timeline
- FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) is looking to raise up to HK$3.99bn (US$508m) in its IPO, valuing the company at HK$48.82bn (US$6.22bn).
- Cornerstone investors will take up more than half the base offering and that will delay index inclusion to well into 2026.
- FWD Group Holdings (FWD HK) could be added to the HSCI Index and Southbound Stock Connect in December. That could bring some buying into the stock from mainland investors.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Lockup Expiry Ahead. After 2000% Rally, Is There Still Shine Left?
- Laopu Gold (6181 HK)’s 365-day lockup on shares held by pre-IPO investors expires tomorrow (June 27), more than doubling its current free float.
- Near-Term pressure on the stock is likely, given the sharp increase in tradable shares, mixed gold price outlook, and limited retail investor access after a steep rally.
- A potential stock split could broaden investor participation, improve liquidity and serve as a catalyst for next leg of stock upside.
Santos (STO AU): Why FIRB Should Block ADNOC’s Takeover
- There is no shortage of opinions on whether FIRB will back/oppose the Santos Offer, as Australia seeks to balance attracting foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.
- The key question is how Australia benefits from Santos becoming a foreign-owned national oil/gas company? Can ADNOC accelerated/bolster existing projects/operations? Can ADNOC better negotiate native title rights for domestic supply?
- And should Australia readily sell 100% in a critical infrastructure complex; yet if the roles were reversed, foreigners are capped at 49% ownership in UAE’s similar critical assets?
EB Event Trade Setup: HD KSOE Lining up a New Deal with HD Hyundai Heavy as the Underlying
- HD KSOE plans a second EB similar to earlier this year: a zero-coupon, 2% HD Hyundai Heavy stake with 13–15% premium, aiming to raise around ₩850 billion.
- With Korea’s Commercial Act revision expected by July 4, EB deals risk director liability; HD KSOE aims to raise cash now before stricter rules limit easy board-approved EB issuance.
- Targeting a short in HD Hyundai Heavy triggered by HD KSOE’s board approval before July 4; consider hedging with a long position in HD KSOE due to ongoing sector catalysts.
Japan Activist Watch | Square Enix, DaitoTrust, Iriso & INES
- Activist investors 3D Investment Partners and Dalton Investments have both taken meaningful stakes in Square Enix – highlights capital inefficiency and poor margin profile
- Daito Trust sits on over ¥100bn in net cash, an arguably excessive cushion for a mature operator with steady cash flows. Silchester have taken note
- Iriso Electronic and INES both trade below book value. Attractive value plays for small cap funds.