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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Event-Driven: GAPack (468 HK): Hong Kong’s Takeovers Code Needs A PUSU Rule and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • GAPack (468 HK): Hong Kong’s Takeovers Code Needs A PUSU Rule
  • AVJennings (AVJ AU): Competing Offer Brewing
  • EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 23 – 27
  • Extension of Spain’s ‘Anti-Takeover Shield’ and Investor Concerns
  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (31st Dec 2024): Weimob Inc., Midea Real Estate, Pharmaron Beijing
  • UniCredit’s Strategic Stake in Commerzbank and Implications for a Takeover


GAPack (468 HK): Hong Kong’s Takeovers Code Needs A PUSU Rule

By David Blennerhassett

  • In the UK, once a Bidder is named in a possible offer announcement, the Bidder has 28 days to either announce a firm Offer intention or walk away. 
  • This is known as a ‘put up or shut up’ or ‘PUSU’ deadline. Hong Kong’s takeover rules has no such provision.
  • It’s ~21 weeks since co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong tabled a non-binding Offer. With no firm Offer in sight, AND contesting a SAMR ruling, they should fold their tent.

AVJennings (AVJ AU): Competing Offer Brewing

By Arun George

  • On 28 November, Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) disclosed a non-binding indicative proposal from AVID at A$0.67 per share, a 103.0% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • On 27 December, Queensgate Investments became a substantial shareholder, representing 5.39% of outstanding shares. Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP), a Singaporean real-estate developer, owns Queensgate.
  • Ho Bee Land is a strategic investor and is likely contemplating a competing offer, mainly because AVID’s offer is below NTA and AVJennings’s controlling shareholder’s ties to Singapore. 

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 23 – 27

By John Ley

  • Call volumes dominate tradng across single stocks with the Put/Call ratio hitting its 3rd lowest level since the beginning of November. Volumes continue trend lower in place since early November.
  • Auto companies seeing big increases in option volumes with Li Auto and Great Wall Motor moving in opposite directions since the middle of the month.  
  • We add 2 new tables showing the largest volume increases across Puts and Calls – a conveient way to view unusual changes in trading activity.

Extension of Spain’s ‘Anti-Takeover Shield’ and Investor Concerns

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • The Spanish government extended the anti-takeover shield to December 31, 2026, maintaining oversight of foreign direct investments in critical sectors like energy, defense, and technology to safeguard national interests.
  • Investor concerns include regulatory uncertainty, lack of clear criteria, and expanded obligations under the 2023 Foreign Investment Law, deterring foreign investments and delaying significant projects.
  • Balancing security and openness preserves free capital movement benefits, addressing vulnerabilities while avoiding protectionism that could harm competitiveness and strain relationships with foreign partners.

HK CEO & Director Dealings (31st Dec 2024): Weimob Inc., Midea Real Estate, Pharmaron Beijing

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
  • The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: Weimob Inc. (2013 HK), Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK), and Pharmaron Beijing (3759 HK).

UniCredit’s Strategic Stake in Commerzbank and Implications for a Takeover

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • UniCredit increased its economic exposure to Commerzbank to approximately 28%, aligning with its strategy to reach a 29.9% stake, pending ECB approval in early 2025.
  • Commerzbank’s operational inefficiencies and valuation at 0.56x tangible book value highlight challenges for independence, reinforcing the rationale for a potential UniCredit takeover. My core position would be long Commerzbank.
  • Projected synergies for a UniCredit-Commerzbank merger range from €705 million to €1.409 billion annually, with significant upside for Commerzbank’s share price if a takeover occurs.

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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #58 – Our Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2025 and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #58 – Our Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2025
  • Cryptocurrency Analysis – Bitcoin – November 25, 2024


Crypto Moves #58 – Our Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2025

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Nobody enjoys reading lengthy analyses during the holidays between Christmas and New Year’s Eve, and frankly, I am not inclined to write much either.
  • Therefore, this edition of Crypto Moves is a concise one, focusing solely on our boldest predictions for the coming year—specifically for 2025.
  • These forecasts are straightforward and easy to verify a year from now, whether we turn out to be right or wrong.

Cryptocurrency Analysis – Bitcoin – November 25, 2024

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • According to Graph 1, during the period October 25th, 2024 – November 25th, 2024, the price of Bitcoin exhibited an exclusively upward trajectory.
  • From the beginning of the period until November 6th, the digital asset followed a consolidation pattern amid fluctuations in its price and after this sub-period, an overall bullish momentum began.
  • The MA-10 and MA-20 lines started from the same point.

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Daily Brief Macro: 2025 Regime Update: How Does the Opening Scene of 2025 Look? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • 2025 Regime Update: How Does the Opening Scene of 2025 Look?
  • Surging Share Buybacks in Korea in 2024
  • Asia Ex-Japan Funds:  Stock Positioning Update
  • The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Erajaya’s Strong Finish, Grab +ve, and Alfamart’s On-Target
  • US Rig Count Steady for Third Straight Week as Number of Oil and Gas Rigs Remain Flat
  • Greek Economy – December 15, 2024
  • Commodity Analysis – Silver Futures – November 25, 2024


2025 Regime Update: How Does the Opening Scene of 2025 Look?

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone—we hope you enjoyed the holiday season and had a wonderful Christmas.
  • The festive season has been relatively quiet macro-wise, with only a few comments from the PBoC and BoJ.
  • However, markets seem unwilling to move until there is news on the USD front, which has been driving almost all assets since December.

Surging Share Buybacks in Korea in 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • Capitalizing on the lower share prices combined with the government’s pressure for Corporate Value up improvements, the share buybacks surged in Korea in 2024.
  • As of 27 December 2024, the total treasury shares planned acquisition amount by Korean companies increased by 215% YoY to 11.83 trillion won in 2024.
  • There have been some mixed share price performances among the companies announcing meaningful share buyback/cancellation announcements this year.

Asia Ex-Japan Funds:  Stock Positioning Update

By Steven Holden

  • Top holdings remain unchanged: TSMC, Samsung Electronics, and Tencent are almost universally owned. TSMC hits record weights but active funds sell into strength as benchmark weights surpass 10%
  • Hon Hai, Hyundai Motor, and Singtel lead recoveries from prolonged declines. Baidu Inc. and Kweichow Moutai see sharp ownership drops.
  • Momentum leaders include Accton Technology, CATL, and KE Holdings. By contrast, Axis Bank, PDD, and Reliance face stalling ownership.

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Erajaya’s Strong Finish, Grab +ve, and Alfamart’s On-Target

By Angus Mackintosh


US Rig Count Steady for Third Straight Week as Number of Oil and Gas Rigs Remain Flat

By Suhas Reddy

  • The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the third straight week at 589 for the week ending on 27/Dec.
  • For the week ending 20/Dec, US oil production moderately fell to 13.59m bpd from 13.6m bpd the week prior.
  • The number of active US oil and gas rigs remained steady at 483 and 102, respectively. US producers added one rig in North Dakota and cut one in Texas.

Greek Economy – December 15, 2024

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • The 2024 real GDP forecasts for Greece, indicate a growth rate of 2.24%, bringing Real GDP above the €200 billion, which continues the positive trends after the pandemic.
  • The OECD, IMF and European Commission also project a 2.14% growth rate in 2025.
  • The Public debt is expected to fall from €369.099 billion in 2023 to €362.182 billion in 2024, and the Debt to GDP will reach 156.1%, while the downward trend is expected to continue in 2025. 

Commodity Analysis – Silver Futures – November 25, 2024

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • According to Graph 1, during the period October 28th, 2024 – November 25th, 2024, a bearish trend was reflected in the price of silver futures.
  • During this timeframe, there was a significant decrease in the price of the commodity from above $34 to below $31.
  • The MA-10 line was recorded to perform remarkably higher than MA-20 line in the beginning of the period under consideration, until November 8th when it crossed below it, indicating a downward momentum.

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Daily Brief Australia: Avjennings Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • AVJennings (AVJ AU): Competing Offer Brewing


AVJennings (AVJ AU): Competing Offer Brewing

By Arun George

  • On 28 November, Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) disclosed a non-binding indicative proposal from AVID at A$0.67 per share, a 103.0% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • On 27 December, Queensgate Investments became a substantial shareholder, representing 5.39% of outstanding shares. Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP), a Singaporean real-estate developer, owns Queensgate.
  • Ho Bee Land is a strategic investor and is likely contemplating a competing offer, mainly because AVID’s offer is below NTA and AVJennings’s controlling shareholder’s ties to Singapore. 

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Daily Brief South Korea: Binggrae Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Our Screening Process Methodology for Picking Top Small Cap Stocks in KOSPI in 2025


Our Screening Process Methodology for Picking Top Small Cap Stocks in KOSPI in 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide our screening process methodology for picking top small cap stocks in KOSPI in 2025. 
  • We used a 7 step process to narrow down a list of 30 stocks in KOSPI including market cap, ROE, sales growth, P/E, P/B, and Smartscore.  
  • The top five stocks on the Korean small cap stocks screen include Binggrae, Innocean Worldwide, Hanil Holding, Miwon Chemicals, and Daechang Forging.

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Daily Brief Singapore: 17LIVE Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Smartkarma Corporate Webinar Recap: 17Live’s CEO on the Live Streaming Company’s Outlook


Smartkarma Corporate Webinar Recap: 17Live’s CEO on the Live Streaming Company’s Outlook

By Smartkarma Research

17LIVE is a leading pure-play live streaming platform in Asia with key markets in Japan and Taiwan. Its business lines include Liver live streaming, V-Liver live streaming and other businesses such as in-app games and live commerce. 17LIVE is accessible globally and has fostered a diverse live streaming ecosystem with a loyal and engaged user community, as well as a deep pool of live streamers.

The Smartkarma team spoke to 17Live’s Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director, Jiang Honghui, in an exclusive corporate webinar. Honghui sheds light on the company’s impressive journey and future growth outlook within the vibrant live streaming space.

You can view the webinar via the link below. 


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Daily Brief India: HDFC Limited, Triveni Engineering & Industries, Gokaldas Exports, Zee Entertainment Enterprises and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • SEBI’s Crackdown on Insider Trading in the HDFC-HDFC Bank Merger
  • The Beat Ideas: Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd -Ethanol, Water, Demerger Play
  • India Textiles | Bangladesh Plus One Déjà Vu
  • The Zee Entertainment Audit Saga: NFRA’s Action Against Deloitte


SEBI’s Crackdown on Insider Trading in the HDFC-HDFC Bank Merger

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • SEBI uncovered insider trading during the HDFC-HDFC Bank merger, implicating a Deloitte employee and his associate, who profited Rs. 8.19 lakh using call options and confidential merger details.
  • This case highlights the increasing sophistication of insider trading tactics and reinforces the critical need for stricter compliance to protect investor trust and ensure market transparency.
  • The case demonstrates SEBI’s growing reliance on advanced analytics to identify market anomalies, ensuring accountability even in complex trading schemes involving proxy accounts and derivative instruments.

The Beat Ideas: Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd -Ethanol, Water, Demerger Play

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Triveni Engineering & Industries (TRE IN)’s acquisition of Sir Shadi Lal Enterprise Limited is expected to add to the bottom line as it is located in the same region.
  • The resumption of the molasses-based Ethanol plant would benefit as the previous year’s company closed operations early due to non-availability of cane.
  • The demerger of the turbine is expected to be the major value-creation proposition.

India Textiles | Bangladesh Plus One Déjà Vu

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • In this insight, we focus on the textile industry dynamics in India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam, particularly focusing on the “Bangladesh Plus One” sourcing strategy.
  • Textile stocks have surged significantly, with an average increase of 13% in one month and 50% year-to-date, driven by investment narratives.
  • Despite optimism in India, Bangladesh and Vietnam maintain competitive advantages, particularly in labor costs and export-oriented policies, affecting India’s market share.

The Zee Entertainment Audit Saga: NFRA’s Action Against Deloitte

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • NFRA imposed a Rs. 2 crore penalty on Deloitte and fined two retired partners for audit lapses in Zee Entertainment Enterprises (Z IN)‘s Rs. 200 crore FD mismanagement involving RPTs.
  • This case exposes serious flaws in audit practices, corporate governance, and related-party transaction scrutiny, emphasizing the rising importance of professional skepticism in financial audits.
  • Audit reports aren’t infallible; investors must independently assess corporate governance and scrutinize financial assumptions, especially in listed companies with complex transactions.

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Daily Brief United States: Bitcoin, Crude Oil, Playa Hotels & Resorts NV, Apellis Pharmaceuticals, Brunswick Corp, Taylor Morrison Home Corp A, Sanmina Corp, ContextLogic , Simpson Manufacturing Co, Inc, Tempur Sealy International and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #58 – Our Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2025
  • US Rig Count Steady for Third Straight Week as Number of Oil and Gas Rigs Remain Flat
  • Is Playa Hotels & Resorts the Perfect Catch for Hyatt? Here’s What Investors Need to Know!
  • Apellis Pharmaceuticals: Ophthalmology Field Team Expansion As A Critical Growth Lever! – Major Drivers
  • Brunswick Corporation’s Next Big Move: Stabilizing Retail
  • Taylor Morrison Home Corporation: An Insight Into Its Recent Land Acquisition & Community Expansion Efforts & Major Growth Drivers
  • Sanmina Corporation: Its Efforts Towards Expansion & Optimization of Manufacturing Capabilities Paying Off? – Major Drivers
  • Contextlogic Inc (LOGC) – Monday, Sep 30, 2024
  • Simpson Manufacturing Company: Expansion of Manufacturing Facilities Driving Our ‘Outperform’ Rating! – Major Drivers
  • Tempur Sealy: International Expansion & Growth As A Pivotal Growth Lever! – Major Drivers


Crypto Moves #58 – Our Predictions for the Crypto Market in 2025

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Nobody enjoys reading lengthy analyses during the holidays between Christmas and New Year’s Eve, and frankly, I am not inclined to write much either.
  • Therefore, this edition of Crypto Moves is a concise one, focusing solely on our boldest predictions for the coming year—specifically for 2025.
  • These forecasts are straightforward and easy to verify a year from now, whether we turn out to be right or wrong.

US Rig Count Steady for Third Straight Week as Number of Oil and Gas Rigs Remain Flat

By Suhas Reddy

  • The US oil and gas rig count remained unchanged for the third straight week at 589 for the week ending on 27/Dec.
  • For the week ending 20/Dec, US oil production moderately fell to 13.59m bpd from 13.6m bpd the week prior.
  • The number of active US oil and gas rigs remained steady at 483 and 102, respectively. US producers added one rig in North Dakota and cut one in Texas.

Is Playa Hotels & Resorts the Perfect Catch for Hyatt? Here’s What Investors Need to Know!

By Baptista Research

  • Playa Hotels & Resorts reported third-quarter 2024 results that exceeded expectations, driven by steady performance in the Yucatan and Dominican Republic segments and improving demand in the Pacific Coast and Jamaica.
  • The company achieved owned resort EBITDA of $36.6 million in the quarter, which included a benefit from business interruption insurance proceeds of approximately $700,000, compared to $1 million in the same period last year.
  • The company’s results reflected the impact of external factors such as Hurricane Barrel, construction disruptions, and travel advisories.

Apellis Pharmaceuticals: Ophthalmology Field Team Expansion As A Critical Growth Lever! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Apellis Pharmaceuticals reported its third-quarter 2024 financial results, highlighting key developments and offering insights into future expectations.
  • The company, co-founded and led by CEO Dr. Cedric Francois, focuses on targeting C3 to address complement-mediated diseases.
  • During the third quarter, Apellis saw progress in commercial demand for SYFOVRE, although net product revenue for SYFOVRE dipped slightly by 1.7% due to factors like higher gross-to-net adjustments and contracting dynamics.

Brunswick Corporation’s Next Big Move: Stabilizing Retail

By Baptista Research

  • Brunswick Corporation’s third-quarter performance in 2024 showcased a mix of resilience and caution amidst a challenging marine market.
  • The company reported sales down by 20% and an adjusted EPS of $1.17, reflecting a decrease compared to the previous year due to weakening market conditions.
  • Nevertheless, Brunswick’s recurring revenue streams, such as the Engine Parts & Accessories (P&A) business, Propulsion’s repower business, and Freedom Boat Club, contributed significantly, underpinning the company’s financial performance.

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation: An Insight Into Its Recent Land Acquisition & Community Expansion Efforts & Major Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Taylor Morrison Home Corporation reported a robust performance for the third quarter of 2024, showcasing the efficacy of its diversified consumer and geographic strategy amidst economic uncertainty and weather-related challenges.
  • During the quarter, the company delivered 3,394 homes with an average selling price of $598,000, contributing to over $2 billion in revenue.
  • The home closings gross margin stood at 24.8%, representing an encouraging increase from previous quarters and indicating effective cost management and pricing strategies.

Sanmina Corporation: Its Efforts Towards Expansion & Optimization of Manufacturing Capabilities Paying Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sanmina Corporation recently presented its financial performance for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024.
  • The company exhibited a commendable year-end financial performance, with revenue reaching $2.02 billion, surpassing their forecast of $1.9 billion to $2.0 billion, marking a sequential increase of 9.6%.
  • Despite facing a challenging fiscal year largely characterized by inventory adjustment with clients, Sanmina achieved non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.43, exceeding expectations.

Contextlogic Inc (LOGC) – Monday, Sep 30, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • ContextLogic is a cash and NOL shell trading at a discount with potential to double in value through NOL maximization strategies
  • Assets include cash and $2.8 billion in Federal NOLs, with a previous market value decline due to ownership of Wish.com
  • Strategy involves acquiring a business with taxable earnings to maximize NOL value, offering investors potential upside from NOL monetization.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Simpson Manufacturing Company: Expansion of Manufacturing Facilities Driving Our ‘Outperform’ Rating! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Simpson Manufacturing Company’s third quarter 2024 results provide an insight into its current operational and financial positioning.
  • The company’s net sales reached $587.2 million, showing a modest increase over the prior year, despite pressures in both U.S. and European housing markets.
  • This resilience is partly attributed to Simpson’s growth strategy, as North American volume growth outperformed U.S. housing starts by approximately 500 basis points.

Tempur Sealy: International Expansion & Growth As A Pivotal Growth Lever! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the third quarter of 2024, Tempur Sealy reported a modest 2% increase in net sales, amounting to $1.3 billion.
  • This was accompanied by a 6% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $275 million year-over year.
  • The company’s GAAP EPS grew 14% to $0.73 per share, while the adjusted EPS saw a 7% increase to $0.82 per share.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Cisarua Mountain Dairy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Rising Star in Staples


Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Rising Star in Staples

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy stands out as a rising star amongst consumer staples in Indonesia driven by strong growth in both dairy through Cimory and premium foods through the Kanzler brand.
  • The company will continue to benefit from lower raw material costs, as it buys six months ahead and is investing in promotions to drive the growth of new products.
  • CMRY has launched Cimory Bites and Crispy Nuggets Spicy which will drive near terns growth, along with a focus on General Trade and MCM channels. Valuations are attractive versus growth.

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Daily Brief China: Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Evergrande, ICBC (H), Weimob Inc., China Shineway Pharmaceutical and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • GAPack (468 HK): Hong Kong’s Takeovers Code Needs A PUSU Rule
  • Scams of 2024: From Digital Frauds to Corporate Collapses
  • EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 23 – 27
  • The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (December 26)
  • China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK) – The Outlook Is Deteriorating
  • HK CEO & Director Dealings (31st Dec 2024): Weimob Inc., Midea Real Estate, Pharmaron Beijing


GAPack (468 HK): Hong Kong’s Takeovers Code Needs A PUSU Rule

By David Blennerhassett

  • In the UK, once a Bidder is named in a possible offer announcement, the Bidder has 28 days to either announce a firm Offer intention or walk away. 
  • This is known as a ‘put up or shut up’ or ‘PUSU’ deadline. Hong Kong’s takeover rules has no such provision.
  • It’s ~21 weeks since co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong tabled a non-binding Offer. With no firm Offer in sight, AND contesting a SAMR ruling, they should fold their tent.

Scams of 2024: From Digital Frauds to Corporate Collapses

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • 2024 witnessed an unprecedented rise in financial crimes, including an 8x surge in Indian banking fraud, massive cryptocurrency heists, and large-scale corporate fraud like Evergrande’s $78 billion scandal.
  • These scams exposed vulnerabilities in technology, governance, and public awareness, underscoring the urgent need for robust regulatory frameworks, enhanced corporate accountability, and public education.
  • The evolving sophistication of financial crimes highlights the necessity for vigilance, technological resilience, and proactive measures by individuals, businesses, and governments to mitigate risks in an interconnected world.

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly December 23 – 27

By John Ley

  • Call volumes dominate tradng across single stocks with the Put/Call ratio hitting its 3rd lowest level since the beginning of November. Volumes continue trend lower in place since early November.
  • Auto companies seeing big increases in option volumes with Li Auto and Great Wall Motor moving in opposite directions since the middle of the month.  
  • We add 2 new tables showing the largest volume increases across Puts and Calls – a conveient way to view unusual changes in trading activity.

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (December 26)

By David Mudd

  • Mainland China investors continued to increase their purchases of Hong Kong shares through the southbound connect platform after Trump’s win. Mainland investors bought a record HK$800B of HK shares in 2024.
  • Weimob Inc. (2013 HK) announced it is connecting its Weimob mini-programs to Tencent’s (700 HK) WeChat mini-shop. This move further integrates the SaaS company into Tencent’s ecosystem.
  • Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) announced a license agreement with US-based Aadi Bioscience (AADI US).  Also, Wuxi was not included in the Senate version of the BioSecure legislation improving investor sentiment.

China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK) – The Outlook Is Deteriorating

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Shineway’s 24Q1-Q3 performance is disappointing. So, we adjusted our forecast- 2024 Revenue could be about RMB3.7-4 billion, down 11-18% YoY. Net profit could reach about RMB1.05-1.1 billion, up 8-13% YoY.  
  • VBP is the biggest headwinds – Injection products/TCM formula granules/OTC medications all face VBP, which brings uncertainties to future performance. It’s uncertain whether the 2025 performance will rebound as expected.
  • Shineway seems to have lost growth momentum after COVID-19.Considering large cash balance, it doesn’t make much sense to hold the Company long term if it doesn’t significantly raise its dividend.

HK CEO & Director Dealings (31st Dec 2024): Weimob Inc., Midea Real Estate, Pharmaron Beijing

By David Blennerhassett

  • The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
  • Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
  • The key stocks mentioned in this regular insight include: Weimob Inc. (2013 HK), Midea Real Estate Holding (3990 HK), and Pharmaron Beijing (3759 HK).

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