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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January.
  • Overall, the index recorded a 0.9% decline in the six months ended January 2025, which was lower than the 1.7% drop over the preceding six months.
  • Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended February 15th edged up to 219 k (215 k e / 214 k revised p). 

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: REA Group Dives As CoStar Muscles Into Turf and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: REA Group Dives As CoStar Muscles Into Turf
  • Strategic Reshuffle, Shareholder Adjustments, and Investment Outlook
  • Recent Block Deal Sale on HD Hyundai Marine Solution and Headwinds on Korean Shipbuilding Sector

StubWorld: REA Group Dives As CoStar Muscles Into Turf

By David Blennerhassett

Strategic Reshuffle, Shareholder Adjustments, and Investment Outlook

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Naturgy plans a €2.5 billion share buyback at €26.5 per share, thus increasing free float and liquidity, potentially aiding index inclusion and attracting passive ETF investors.
  • The 2025-2027 strategic plan targets €6.4 billion investments, focusing on networks and renewables while maintaining EBITDA at €5.3 billion and net profit at €1.9 billion.
  • A rising dividend from €1.6 to €1.9/share by 2027, with a 100% payout ratio, provides a 7.4% 27e yield, supported by a 2.3x net debt/EBITDA, ensuring sustainability.

Recent Block Deal Sale on HD Hyundai Marine Solution and Headwinds on Korean Shipbuilding Sector

By Douglas Kim

  • On 19 February, KKR sold 2 million shares (4.49%) stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution at 147,500 won (9.3% discount to the previous day’s closing price), representing 295 billion won.
  • Therefore, we would argue that these major shipbuilding shares in Korea (such as HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hanwha Ocean) could face more difficult headwinds in the coming months. 
  • KKR’s timing of its block deal sale of HD Hyundai Marine Solution also reflects its attempt to partially sell its shares while the stock price is still at lofty levels. 

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Macro: CX Daily: Chinese Carmakers Expand Into Growing Central Asian Markets and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • CX Daily: Chinese Carmakers Expand Into Growing Central Asian Markets
  • [ETP 2025/08] WTI Rises on Supply Disruptions, While Henry Hub Surges on Cold Snap
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Feb 2025
  • Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Economic Activity 2024
  • Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Jan (Forecast)
  • HEW: Doves Drown in Hot Data

CX Daily: Chinese Carmakers Expand Into Growing Central Asian Markets

By Caixin Global

  • Autos /: Chinese carmakers expand into growing Central Asian markets
  • Corruption /: Former ICBC banker gets suspended death sentence for graft
  • Meituan /: Meituan to provide social security benefits for delivery riders

[ETP 2025/08] WTI Rises on Supply Disruptions, While Henry Hub Surges on Cold Snap

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 14/Feb, U.S. crude inventories increased by 4.6m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 3.2m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles surprisingly fell, while distillate stocks dropped more than expected.
  • U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 196 Bcf for the week ending 14/Feb, beating analyst expectations of a 191 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 5.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Occidental’s Q4 adjusted EPS rose 8.1% YoY, beating estimates by 18.1%. However, it posted a net loss of USD 297 million. Wolfe Research, UBS, and Susquehanna raised price targets.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 21 Feb 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • Indonesia’s Growth Concerns: Questioning the reliability of Indonesia’s steady 5% GDP growth, highlighting high real lending rates and the need for interest rate cuts to spur private investment.

  • Japan’s Economic Weakness: Stripping out net exports, Japan’s GDP growth is flat, with rising wages squeezing profits, raising concerns about economic sustainability despite positive headline figures.

  • Thailand’s Investment Issues: Thailand’s GDP growth of 2.5% masks weak private sector investment, with public spending driving growth but failing to translate into meaningful private sector expansion.

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Economic Activity 2024

By Actinver

  • The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) confirmed that economic activity closed 2024 with an annual growth rate of 1.5%.
  • In this context, we will be revising our 2025 growth forecast from 1.2% down to 0.8%, while maintaining our forecast for 2026 at 1.9%.
  • We anticipate a successful renegotiation of the USMCA, though not without some ups and downs during the process.

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h-Jan (Forecast)

By Actinver

  • We estimate that inflation for the first half of February will come in at 0.09% bw, due to the drop in agricultural prices.
  • Inflation for this period is typically around 0.17% bw.
  • Our low estimate is explained by a -4.93% bw generalized decline in agricultural prices, specifically among tomatoes and onions.

HEW: Doves Drown in Hot Data

By Phil Rush

  • This week, the flurry of hawkish UK data extended into a torrent, with unemployment, wages, inflation, retail sales, and the flash PMI drowning dovish assumptions. Repriced rates don’t reflect the reality in the macro data where reversing hikes may be needed.
  • Final Euro area inflation data and monetary policy decisions from Korea and Thailand are highlights incapable of changing global narratives. Negotiated EA wage data, policy speeches, and Trump’s regular shouting into the void may dominate instead.
  • Note: Smartkarma is now the sole distributor of our research, so clients will only receive all other research from Smartkarma (queries to transition@smartkarma.com).

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Australia: REA Group Ltd and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: REA Group Dives As CoStar Muscles Into Turf

StubWorld: REA Group Dives As CoStar Muscles Into Turf

By David Blennerhassett

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Miwon Specialty Chemical, HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Passive Flow Action Around Kumyang: Eyes on Miwon SC for the Play
  • Recent Block Deal Sale on HD Hyundai Marine Solution and Headwinds on Korean Shipbuilding Sector
  • KOSPI 200 – Upcoming BOK Rate Decision: Navigating Market Moves and Profit Opportunities

Passive Flow Action Around Kumyang: Eyes on Miwon SC for the Play

By Sanghyun Park

  • KRX will replace Kumyang with the top backup from Materials—Miwon Specialty Chemical (268280 KS)—based on the last rebalancing.
  • Kumyang jumped 15% today, but it’s likely just speculative mania off the battery sector bounce—not a sign they dodged KRX’s penalty.
  • Kumyang still trades like a casino, and with this trade volume, its KOSPI 200 exit likely has minimal passive impact. The cleaner trade is on the inclusion name.

Recent Block Deal Sale on HD Hyundai Marine Solution and Headwinds on Korean Shipbuilding Sector

By Douglas Kim

  • On 19 February, KKR sold 2 million shares (4.49%) stake in HD Hyundai Marine Solution at 147,500 won (9.3% discount to the previous day’s closing price), representing 295 billion won.
  • Therefore, we would argue that these major shipbuilding shares in Korea (such as HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hanwha Ocean) could face more difficult headwinds in the coming months. 
  • KKR’s timing of its block deal sale of HD Hyundai Marine Solution also reflects its attempt to partially sell its shares while the stock price is still at lofty levels. 

KOSPI 200 – Upcoming BOK Rate Decision: Navigating Market Moves and Profit Opportunities

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Bank of Korea is expected to cut interest rates to 2.75% on 25 February 2025. The decision, however, is not expected to be unanimous and some analysts argue against.
  • Historical data from 120 BoK announcements and subsequent moves in the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) is examined.
  • Options market pricing seems to lean toward a “surprise and no-change” outcome. Traders can seek opportunities with short straddles or long puts depending on anticipated outcomes.

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief India: Religare Enterprises, Allied Blenders & Distillers, Apcotex Industries, Godawari Power and Ispat, Trualt Bioenergy Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Religare’s New Dawn: The Burman Family Takes Control
  • Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd Q3FY25 Update: Volume Growth, Premiumization
  • Apcotex Industries Ltd Q3FY25 Update: Capacity Utilisation and Industry Dynamics Driving Growth
  • Godawari Power & Ispat Limited Q3 FY25 Update: De-Growth Due to Lower Iron Ore and Pellet Production
  • Trualt Bioenergy Limited Pre-IPO – Built in a Flash: The Rapid Rise to an IPO

Religare’s New Dawn: The Burman Family Takes Control

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • After an 18-month saga, the Burman family has taken control of REL, acquiring 25.16% equity and planning a INR 2,000 crore capital infusion.
  • This takeover ends promoter-less governance, injecting fresh strategic capital to transform Religare into a competitive NBFC and drive long-term recovery.
  • Investors should now view Religare as a turnaround story, with robust governance reforms, lower debt, and renewed focus on core financial services promising sustainable growth.

Allied Blenders & Distillers Ltd Q3FY25 Update: Volume Growth, Premiumization

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Allied Blenders & Distillers (9844250Z IN) ‘s Q3 FY25 results showed robust growth in revenue at Rs. 2,346 crores (up 15.5% sequentially, 12.9% YoY) and strong premiumisation with expanded export reach.
  • Enhanced margins driven by effective cost optimization and profitable state brand mix highlight ABDL’s resilience and ability to capture premium market trends, strengthening its competitive position in India’s spirits industry.
  • The company aims to grow the aggregate market share of its four millionaire brands and consolidate its position in the P&A whisky segment through its three millionaire brands

Apcotex Industries Ltd Q3FY25 Update: Capacity Utilisation and Industry Dynamics Driving Growth

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Apcotex Industries (APCO IN) operational revenue rose 38.2% YoY to INR 3,553 million in Q3 FY25, driven by strong volume gains and a 30% YoY increase in export volumes.
  • Robust volume and export growth, alongside management’s capacity and anti-dumping initiatives, position Apcotex for margin recovery and long-term revenue expansion.
  • The company expects margins to improve in Q4, driven by better capacity utilisation and an improving situation in the XNB (Nitrile Latex) business due to duties imposed by the US.

Godawari Power & Ispat Limited Q3 FY25 Update: De-Growth Due to Lower Iron Ore and Pellet Production

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Godawari Power and Ispat (GODPI IN) Q3 FY25 results show revenue and EBITDA declines due to lower iron ore and pellet production, despite improved volumes in HB wires and fabricated products.
  • These declines highlight operational challenges affecting profitability, emphasizing the need for capacity expansion and enhanced cost controls in a competitive global steel market.
  • The company dropped the plan to set up a greenfield integrated steel plant of 2 million tons. Instead, GPIL is evaluating alternative projects with lower capacity and capex.

Trualt Bioenergy Limited Pre-IPO – Built in a Flash: The Rapid Rise to an IPO

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Trualt Bioenergy Ltd (2350587D IN) (TBL) is planning to raise about US$120m through its upcoming India IPO. 
  • TBL is one of India’s largest biofuels producers. As of FY24, TBL’s business verticals were Ethanol, ENA (Extra Neutral Alcohol), CBG (Compressed Biogas), FOM (Fermented Organic Manure), CO2 (Carbon Dioxide).
  • As per the CRISIL Report, TBL held the distinction of being the largest ethanol producer in India based on installed capacity, as of Mar 24.

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief China: Mixue Group, Baidu, Genuine Biotech, Lenovo, Fuji Soft Inc, Dollar Index, Cainiao Smart Logistics Network and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • MIXUE IPO – Decent Cornerstone, past Sentiment Overhang
  • MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case
  • Mixue Group IPO: Value For Money Pricing and Attractive Valuations
  • [Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, SELL, TP US$80) TP Change]: AI Monetization by How Much & At What Cost?
  • Genuine Biotech (真实生物) Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Feb-2025): Brookfield sells Sydney complex for $210M
  • Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk
  • CaiNiao Q3FY: Revenue Declines Y/Y, Margins, Too | X-Border Logistics Pricing Under Intense Pressure

MIXUE IPO – Decent Cornerstone, past Sentiment Overhang

By Sumeet Singh

  • Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$450m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO pricing.

MIXUE Group (2097 HK) IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Mixue Group (MIX HK), a world-leading manufacturer of freshly made drinks, is seeking to raise US$445 million through an HKEx IPO. 
  • According to CIC, Mixue is the largest freshly made drinks company in China and worldwide, according to the number of stores as of September 30, 2024.
  • The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation. 

Mixue Group IPO: Value For Money Pricing and Attractive Valuations

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Mixue Group (MIX HK)  is offering 17.06 million shares at HK$202.50 apiece to raise HK$3.45 billion ($444 million) in its initial public offering in Hong Kong
  • Mixue’s IPO was launched today morning  and will close on Wednesday 26th February. The stock is due to list on HK bourses on 3rd March.
  • Mixue, China’s value-for-money freshly made beverage leader, has priced its IPO shares attractively given its robust growth track record and long term competitive strengths.

[Baidu, Inc. (BIDU US, SELL, TP US$80) TP Change]: AI Monetization by How Much & At What Cost?

By Ying Pan

  • BIDU reported C4Q24 top line, non-GAAP op. profit and GAAP net income in-line, (22%) and (7.0%) vs. our est. and (3.7%), (24%) and in line vs. cons. 
  • While monetization on a largely in-house app repertoire can ensure AI revenue to start kicking in in C2H25, we are concerned on the size of this revenue, 
  • We maintain our SELL but raise TP to US$80 to reflect a short-term trading opportunity around AI monetization.

Genuine Biotech (真实生物) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Genuine Biotech is looking to raise at least US$100 million via a Hong Kong listing.
  • Genuine Biotech has commercialized product and is expanding indication of its core product from HIV to cancer.
  • The company’s founder has experience of R&D in the relevant area in leading NMCs.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • In the US, the Conference Board leading economic index fell 0.3% (-0.1% e / 0.1% revised p) to 101.5 in January.
  • Overall, the index recorded a 0.9% decline in the six months ended January 2025, which was lower than the 1.7% drop over the preceding six months.
  • Separately, initial jobless claims for the week ended February 15th edged up to 219 k (215 k e / 214 k revised p). 

Asia Real Estate Tracker (21-Feb-2025): Brookfield sells Sydney complex for $210M

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Brookfield has sold a Sydney logistics complex for $210M to Ontario Teachers’, KIC, and Gateway.
  • CapitaLand Investment has closed a $130M private credit fund in Korea.
  • Sun Hung Kai has bought a $77M residential plot, the cheapest land sale in 11 years in Hong Kong.

Major Top for the U.S. Dollar (DXY) = Risk-On; Bullish Outlook Despite Near-Term Downside Risk

By Joe Jasper

  • Our outlook remains bullish on global equities (MSCI ACWI). We’ve been bullish since early-November 2023, save for a two month period from late-July to late-September 2024 when we were neutral.
  • We also believe the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields have put in major tops, which is a crucial risk-on signal for global equities.
  • With more and more countries breaking out, we remain bullish as long as ACWI-US is above $116, S&P 500 is above 5770-5850, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 5030.

CaiNiao Q3FY: Revenue Declines Y/Y, Margins, Too | X-Border Logistics Pricing Under Intense Pressure

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In the December quarter, CaiNiao’s revenue declined -1% Y/Y; EBITA margin fell, too
  • CaiNiao’s revenue growth has de-coupled from the growth of Alibaba’s international segment
  • We believe price pressure on Chinese X-border logistics exceeds pressure within X-border retail

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief United States: Royalty Pharma , Confluent, Tyler Technologies, Fidelity National Info Serv, Crude Oil, Blackline Inc, IAC , Freshworks, GLOBALFOUNDRIES , Diodes Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Royalty Pharma: These Are The Major Shifts That Could Redefine Biopharma Royalties!
  • Confluent Inc.: Expanding Product Offerings To Possibly Disrupt the Market!
  • Tyler Technologies: Is The Growth in Transactional Revenue & Payments Processing Here To Stay?
  • Fidelity National Information Services: Will Its Focus On Core Banking & Digital Transformation Pay Off?
  • [ETP 2025/08] WTI Rises on Supply Disruptions, While Henry Hub Surges on Cold Snap
  • BlackLine Inc.: Optimizing Go-To-Market Strategies For Growth Trajectories!
  • IAC Inc.: Can Its Traffic Growth & Monetization Efforts Drive Sustained Revenue Growth?
  • Freshworks Inc.: Advancements in AI & IT Solutions To Drive Market Penetration Across Various Customer Segments!
  • GlobalFoundries: Will Its Geopolitical Strategy Help Tilt The Competitive Dynamics In Its Favor?
  • Diodes Incorporated: Is It Really Capitalizing On The AI Server and Data Center Growth & What Are The Underlying Risks?

Royalty Pharma: These Are The Major Shifts That Could Redefine Biopharma Royalties!

By Baptista Research

  • Royalty Pharma has reported robust financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, underscoring its position as a leading funder of innovation within the life sciences sector.
  • With a significant emphasis on strategic capital deployment, Royalty Pharma achieved portfolio receipts of $2.8 billion, marking a commendable 13% growth and surpassing initial guidance expectations of 5% to 9%.
  • This financial performance reflects the company’s adept management and its capacity to expand its portfolio effectively.

Confluent Inc.: Expanding Product Offerings To Possibly Disrupt the Market!

By Baptista Research

  • Confluent, Inc. exhibited several key strengths and challenges in its recent financial performance.
  • The company’s subscription revenue for the fiscal year grew by 24% to $250.6 million, driven by a 38% increase in Confluent Cloud revenue and a 10% growth in Confluent Platform revenue.
  • This reflects continued strong demand for enterprise-grade data streaming solutions, particularly in regulated industries.

Tyler Technologies: Is The Growth in Transactional Revenue & Payments Processing Here To Stay?

By Baptista Research

  • Tyler Technologies’ fourth-quarter results reflect a period of strong financial performance, characterized by significant growth and expansion across its key operational pillars.
  • The company experienced 12.5% revenue increase, largely spurred by a 21.9% jump in subscription revenues, particularly within their SaaS offerings which saw close to 23% growth.
  • This rise in subscription income underscores a strategic pivot towards cloud-based solutions, which remained a focal point in Tyler’s strategy, evident by accelerated SaaS adoption and a reduction in on-premise license revenues.

Fidelity National Information Services: Will Its Focus On Core Banking & Digital Transformation Pay Off?

By Baptista Research

  • Fidelity National Information Services, Inc. (FIS) presented its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, outlining a strategic focus on driving commercial excellence, targeting growth vectors, and enhancing profitability.
  • The company reported overall revenue growth for 2024 and noted that its growth trajectory is set to accelerate in 2025.
  • In 2024, FIS reported a revenue growth rate between 3% to 4%, slightly below the company’s initial expectations due to one-time items affecting the quarter.

[ETP 2025/08] WTI Rises on Supply Disruptions, While Henry Hub Surges on Cold Snap

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 14/Feb, U.S. crude inventories increased by 4.6m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 3.2m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles surprisingly fell, while distillate stocks dropped more than expected.
  • U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 196 Bcf for the week ending 14/Feb, beating analyst expectations of a 191 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 5.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.
  • Occidental’s Q4 adjusted EPS rose 8.1% YoY, beating estimates by 18.1%. However, it posted a net loss of USD 297 million. Wolfe Research, UBS, and Susquehanna raised price targets.

BlackLine Inc.: Optimizing Go-To-Market Strategies For Growth Trajectories!

By Baptista Research

  • BlackLine, a cloud-based platform for finance and accounting professionals, reported its Q4 2024 earnings with mixed performance metrics.
  • The company achieved 9% revenue growth despite the adverse impact of a strong U.S. dollar, which added currency headwinds.
  • Non-GAAP operating margin was recorded at 18%, and the revenue renewal rate showed improvement, positioning at 96%—a significant metric in customer retention and satisfaction.

IAC Inc.: Can Its Traffic Growth & Monetization Efforts Drive Sustained Revenue Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • IAC’s recent earnings outlined significant changes and challenges, highlighting both strategic adjustments and the impact of previous business decisions.
  • The company has faced considerable difficulties in two of its principal businesses: Angi Inc. and Dotdash Meredith.
  • For Angi Inc., the shift from a previous $260 million EBITDA to just $35 million was a primary concern.

Freshworks Inc.: Advancements in AI & IT Solutions To Drive Market Penetration Across Various Customer Segments!

By Baptista Research

  • Freshworks’ latest financial performance and strategic initiatives offer a complex picture with both strengths and potential challenges.
  • Over the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2024, the company delivered strong financial results, marking significant improvements in revenue and profit margins compared to prior estimates.
  • Freshworks recorded a revenue increase of 22% year-over-year, reaching $194.6 million in Q4 alone, while reporting a notable non-GAAP operating margin of 21%.

GlobalFoundries: Will Its Geopolitical Strategy Help Tilt The Competitive Dynamics In Its Favor?

By Baptista Research

  • GlobalFoundries Inc., a prominent player in the semiconductor manufacturing sector, exhibited a blend of positive outcomes and persistent challenges in its fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results.
  • On the positive side, the fourth quarter slightly surpassed the midpoint of the company’s revenue guidance, achieving approximately $1.83 billion, although this was a minor 1% decline compared to the same quarter in the prior year.
  • The company also reported a significant milestone, as it generated over $1 billion in adjusted free cash flow, exceeding its target and marking robust performance despite industry headwinds.

Diodes Incorporated: Is It Really Capitalizing On The AI Server and Data Center Growth & What Are The Underlying Risks?

By Baptista Research

  • Diodes Incorporated’s fourth quarter and full-year fiscal 2024 performance reveals a mixed financial picture, reflecting both the headwinds in the global economic environment and the company’s strategic initiatives to foster growth and stabilization.
  • In the fourth quarter, Diodes reported revenue of $339.3 million, marking a 5% increase from the fourth quarter of 2023, despite a sequential decline from the prior quarter’s $350.1 million.
  • This uptick demonstrates a return to year-over-year growth, driven largely by the company’s expanding presence and increased point-of-sale activities in Asia, notably China and Southeast Asia, where economic conditions have shown signs of improvement.

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Japan: TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, World Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Not Promptly Retiring Treasury Stock Has Increased the Market Cap of Japanese-Style Calculations
  • World Buys Mitsubishi Clothing Business

Not Promptly Retiring Treasury Stock Has Increased the Market Cap of Japanese-Style Calculations

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The fact that few companies promptly retire treasury stock is the reason for the large gap between market capitalization including treasury stock and market capitalization calculated without including treasury stock.
  • It’s odd that EV/EBITDA of a company will be smaller after cancelling treasury shares than before, but this shouldn’t be too much trouble for institutional investors who analyze it closely.
  • Although this gap may widen for more companies as more cross-shareholdings will be bought back with treasury stock, the increase in share repurchases is a favorable development.

World Buys Mitsubishi Clothing Business

By Michael Causton

  • World may finally have found the key to real growth after years of trying to build a fashion retail business in shopping centres, but with limited success.
  • The big problem was that it didn’t have the supply chain skills to compete with the big retailers like Uniqlo and Adastria.
  • Buying the supplier that helped grow those same chains means World now has a real chance to enter the big leagues.

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Utilities: Naturgy Energy Group SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Strategic Reshuffle, Shareholder Adjustments, and Investment Outlook

Strategic Reshuffle, Shareholder Adjustments, and Investment Outlook

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Naturgy plans a €2.5 billion share buyback at €26.5 per share, thus increasing free float and liquidity, potentially aiding index inclusion and attracting passive ETF investors.
  • The 2025-2027 strategic plan targets €6.4 billion investments, focusing on networks and renewables while maintaining EBITDA at €5.3 billion and net profit at €1.9 billion.
  • A rising dividend from €1.6 to €1.9/share by 2027, with a 100% payout ratio, provides a 7.4% 27e yield, supported by a 2.3x net debt/EBITDA, ensuring sustainability.

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