Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Today Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced earnings which will mean last year was the trough, not this year. The pipeline looks OK too.
The company also announced a ¥100bn buyback and a change of CEO. The buyback has a big number, but it isn’t particularly exciting.
All in all, there’s positive news here, but it is all much of a muchness, but as it is a nine-figure buyback in 3mos, we take a look.

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP): Strong Q3 Result Triggers Guidance Raise; ¥100B Buyback Announced

By Tina Banerjee

Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) reported better-than-expected performance in Q3FY25, with 3% revenue growth to ¥1,144B, driven by continued strong momentum from Growth and Launch Products. All key parameters beat estimates.
Takeda has upgraded its full year outlook for growth, reflecting strong year-to-date product performance and OPEX efficiencies, as well as revised foreign exchange assumptions. Takeda has also announced ¥100B buyback.
Continued strong performance of its Growth and Launch product portfolio, ripe late-stage pipeline, and expected margin improvement from FY26 envisage long-term growth prospect of the company.

HCA Healthcare: Health Insurance Exchange Growth Driving Our ‘Outperform’ Rating! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

HCA Healthcare concluded the fourth quarter of 2024 with robust business fundamentals, maintaining consistency with previous quarters.
The company displayed resilience amidst challenges, such as significant weather disruptions caused by hurricanes, and a stable operational environment underpinned a reasonable starting point for 2025.
The execution of efficient operational strategies has allowed the organization to stabilize operations in affected regions like North Carolina, Georgia, and West Florida.

PBSV: Company Invests for the Future

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Pharma-Bio Serv(PBSV) Company Sponsored Research Report

AEMD Treats First Patient in Australian Safety

By Zacks Small Cap Research

Zacks Small-Cap Research Note for Aethlon Medical (AEMD)

Pre-IPO Zephyrm Bioscience – Despite Promising Pipeline, Investment Risk Is High

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

There’s great potential for PSCs, which provides new treatment options for complex diseases where traditional therapies are ineffective.The more solid the platform technology, the greater the dividends in later stage.
Zephyrm’s pipeline candidates are promising. However, considering the R&D risks, the uncertainty of future commercialization and product safety profile, we think the investment risk of this Company is relatively high.
Valuation of overseas peers is not high. In our view, valuation performance of Zephyrm would be largely depend on its clinical results of pipeline, which is a gamble for investors.

Aurion Biotech (AURN): Regenerative Eye Disease Biotech Filed for IPO Despite Investor Litigation

AURN001, is an improved formulation designed to be mechanistically identical to Vyznova and to provide enhanced benefits, including manufacturing scalability and extended shelf life.
There is pending litigation between Aurion Biotech and the company’s largest shareholder, Alcon Research.
This company is on a trajectory to set terms and debut in the first half of February.

Beta Bionic Inc (BBNX): IPO Pops, Trades Strong on Opening Day

The stock opened 29.4% above its issue price at $22.00 and closed its debut session at $23.63, delivering a first-day gain of 39.0%.
This was a major victory for the IPO market, marking the highest first-day percentage gain of the year.
Looking ahead, the IPO market’s next test will be from the biotech sector.

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Jan 31

Daily Brief Consumer: Global Food Creators, Whirlpool of India, Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt, Hagihara Industries, Wal-Mart de Mexico SAB de CV, Guess? Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Global Foods Creators (7559) – Another Stupidly Cheap MBO With Rigged DCF
Whirlpool Corporation’s Big Exit: What’s Behind the Stake Reduction?
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Renewing Strategies for 2025
Hagihara Industries Inc. (7856 JP) Research update
Walmex De Mexico (WALMEX *) – Thursday, Oct 31, 2024
GES: Snapping the Store: Shifting to Spring With Vigor; Reiterate Buy, $23 PT
Is the Decline in Number of Listed Companies the Beginning of a Shift to Value-Creating Management?

Global Foods Creators (7559) – Another Stupidly Cheap MBO With Rigged DCF

Today after the close, Global Food Creators (7559 JP) announced that the CEO would sell his 1.23% of the company into an MBO by a company he set up.
The family company which owns 27%, and he would fund the takeover of the other 73% with 1% equity taken from his share sale, and 99% bank loans.
The TOB is at 0.65x book for a cash-rich company. Liquidate the cash and the rest is being taken over at 0.33x book. Aaaaargh.

Whirlpool Corporation’s Big Exit: What’s Behind the Stake Reduction?

By Nippon Investment Bespoke Research UK

Whirlpool Corp (WHR US) plans to sell a 31% stake in Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN) reducing ownership to 20% by 2025, triggering a 20% decline due to valuation concerns.
The implied sale valuation is lower than market expectations, raising concerns about growth, profitability, and stock overvaluation, while the parent company capitalizes on an asset arbitrage opportunity.
Short-Term stock pressure due to stake sale overhang, declining profitability, and reduced parent control, but potential long-term re-rating if operational performance improves.

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Renewing Strategies for 2025

By Angus Mackintosh

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya is set to book a strong finish to the year, with revenues on track to meet guidance and 4Q benefiting from supplier rebates and seasonal festivities.
The company is guiding for revenue growth in 2025 in line with that of 2024, with a plan to open at least 1,000 new Alfamart stores during the year.
The guidance for Lawson and Alfamidi store expansion has yet to be announced but numbers are likely to be similar or higher than 2024. Valuations remain attractive versus growth expectations.

Hagihara Industries Inc. (7856 JP) Research update

Hagihara Industries reported FY24 (Oct year-end) earnings results on 10 December with FY24 operating profit [OP] of ¥2,097mil (+6.0% YoY) on sales of ¥33,118mil (+6.0% YoY) versus an OP target of ¥2,200mil (+11.2% YoY) on sales of ¥32,000mil (+2.4% YoY).
While sales overshot the firm’s guidance, OP fell short due to costs associated with a core system renewal and real estate acquisition tax incurred on the Kasaoka Factory.
Management is guiding for FY25 1H OP of ¥1,160mil (-8.8% YoY) on sales of ¥16,780mil (+2.5% YoY), and FY25 OP of ¥2,400mil (+14.4% YoY) on sales of ¥34,000mil (+2.7% YoY).

Walmex De Mexico (WALMEX *) – Thursday, Oct 31, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Mexican market attractiveness discussed, focusing on Walmart de Mexico y Centroamerica (Walmex)
Mexican equities de-rated due to government policies, leading to discounted valuations for quality businesses like Walmex
Walmex, largest retailer in Mexico and Central America with 3,901 stores, seen as well-run, high-quality business and long-term investment opportunity

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

GES: Snapping the Store: Shifting to Spring With Vigor; Reiterate Buy, $23 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

We are reiterating our Buy rating, $23 price target and projections for Guess?
after visiting stores in the New York City metro area and Long Island.
With Guess?

Is the Decline in Number of Listed Companies the Beginning of a Shift to Value-Creating Management?

By Aki Matsumoto

While the number of listed companies worldwide has been on a declining trend, the TSE has experienced growth in market capitalization, but growth in market capitalization has been slow.
TSE requested companies to raise their P/B, but admits that many companies have yet to reach this goal and that it’ll take considerable time to change to such management style.
Shareholder proposals are increasing. This could hasten the shift to value-creating management, or companies that find it burdensome as a cost of listing may choose to go private.

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Jan 31

Daily Brief Financials: Mediobanca SpA, Veritas Finance Ltd, Bajaj Finance Ltd, Financial Products Group Co, M&A Capital Partners, NIFTY Index, Strike, ABRDN European Logistics Income and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

BMPS’s Hostile Takeover Bid for Mediobanca: Strategic and Financial Implications
Veritas Finance Pre-IPO Tearsheet
What the Airtel-Bajaj Finance Partnership Means for Their Growth Plans?
Financial Products Group Co (7148 JP): Q1 FY09/25 flash update
M&A Capital Partners (6080 JP): Q1 FY09/25 flash update
EQD | Nifty 50 Option Strategy – Implied Volatility Is Not as Rich as It Seems
Strike (6196 JP): Q1 FY09/25 flash update
Abrdn European Logistics Income Trust Liquidation: 23% Upside Potential Amid Asset Sales

BMPS’s Hostile Takeover Bid for Mediobanca: Strategic and Financial Implications

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Hostile Takeover Attempt: BMPS launched a €13.3B all-share bid for Mediobanca, offering a 5% premium, but Mediobanca rejected it, citing governance conflicts and strategic misalignment.
Shareholder and Dilution Risks: BMPS shareholders face 39.3% dilution, while Delfin and Caltagirone’s post-merger 24% stake raises governance concerns, potentially sidelining smaller investors.
The deal faces integration risks, and Mediobanca’s shareholder resistance, with BMPS’s falling stock price erasing the initial premium, making success increasingly uncertain.

Veritas Finance Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

Veritas Finance Ltd (1392490D IN) is looking to raise around US$323m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are ICICI, HDFC, Jefferies, Kotak and Nuvama.
Veritas Finance Limited (VFL) is a retail focused non-banking finance company (NBFC) in India primarily providing loans to micro small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and self-employed individuals.
As per the CRISIL report, the firm was the fastest-growing NBFC in terms of AUM growth during FY22-24, growing at a CAGR of 61.76%.

What the Airtel-Bajaj Finance Partnership Means for Their Growth Plans?

Airtel-Bajaj Finance partnership is a game-changer in the digital financial services sector in India. It combines the strengths of both companies to create a powerful platform.
By leveraging Airtel’s extensive distribution network and Bajaj Finance’s financial expertise, this collaboration has the potential to disrupt the market and challenge established players.
It follows the successful playbook of other global partnerships and demonstrates how digital platforms and financial institutions can work together to enhance financial accessibility

Financial Products Group Co (7148 JP): Q1 FY09/25 flash update

In Q1 FY09/25, revenues increased by 14.6% YoY, while operating and recurring profits decreased by 7.7% and 7.4% respectively.
The Leasing Fund Business reported a 26.5% YoY revenue decline, with a segment profit margin of 87.7%, down 1.2pp YoY.
The International Real Estate Fund Business achieved a 356.6% YoY revenue increase, with a gross profit margin of 90.6%, up 8.5pp YoY.

M&A Capital Partners (6080 JP): Q1 FY09/25 flash update

Revenue in Q1 FY09/25 reached JPY7.3bn, a 131.8% YoY increase, driven by higher average fees per deal.
Operating profit and recurring profit both increased by 465.1% YoY to JPY3.3bn, with net income rising 465.7% YoY.
The company revised its dividend policy, increasing the payout ratio target to 30%, raising FY09/25 dividends to JPY51.84.

EQD | Nifty 50 Option Strategy – Implied Volatility Is Not as Rich as It Seems

By Gaudenz Schneider

NIFTY Index implied volatility could be seen as rich when compared to its own history and in comparison to realized volatility.
Putting implied volatility into context with NIFTY Index market levels and trends will lead to a different conclusion. Implied volatility is not nearly as rich as conventional measures suggest.
This Insight provides a quantitative indication at which price implied volatility can be assessed as rich, given current relative index levels.

Strike (6196 JP): Q1 FY09/25 flash update

Revenue was JPY3.7bn (-0.3% YoY), with operating profit at JPY531mn (-60.5% YoY) and recurring profit at JPY523mn (-61.1% YoY).
Strike closed 105 M&A deals (-0.9% YoY), with 288 new contracts (+25.2% YoY) and 1,083 contract backlogs.
Cost of revenue increased 40.5% YoY to JPY1.8bn, while SG&A expenses rose 27.2% YoY to JPY1.3bn.

Abrdn European Logistics Income Trust Liquidation: 23% Upside Potential Amid Asset Sales

By Dalius Tauraitis

ASLI is undergoing a managed wind-down with a 23% upside to NAV estimates, selling properties above NAV.
Recent sales include three assets for €45m, with further large assets in due diligence, supporting NAV estimates.
Risks include potential higher disposal costs and management incentives, but a margin of safety exists with current pricing.

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Jan 31

Most Read: Fast Retailing, Sigma Healthcare, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg, Global Food Creators, Takeda Pharmaceutical, Hanwha Ocean , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Namura Shipbuilding, Dropsuite Ltd and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?
Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade
Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks
Daihatsu Diesel’s (6023) Big Buyback and Quasi Change of Control
Global Foods Creators (7559) – Another Stupidly Cheap MBO With Rigged DCF
Takeda Pharma (4502) – Strong Results
SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Throws off Some Serious Flow Trading Plays with Plenty of Juice
Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium
Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Jan 2025 Ranks
Dropsuite (DSE AU): NinjaOne’s A$5.90/Share Scheme

Fast Retailing (9983) Capping Decision This Week – Single or Double Dose?

Unless Fast Retailing (9983) underperforms Nikkei 225 by 10% by Friday close, there will be a capping exercise at the next Nikkei 225 Rebalance at the end of March 2025.
The evolution of tech stock movement in Japan in the next day or three is important to watch. There will be effects.
The setup very near-term could be pretty interesting, and worth watching.

Fast Retailing (9983 JP): Double Capping & The Reverse Funding Trade

By Brian Freitas

With 3 days left in the review period, Fast Retailing (9983 JP) has a 11.29% weight in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). That means double capping in March.
If Fast Retailing (9983 JP) underperforms the other index stocks by 1.8% from now to the close on 31 January, there will only be a single level of capping.
Double capping will result in big selling on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) and big inflows into the other index constituents. Smaller impact for single level capping.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks

By Brian Freitas

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) and Chemist Warehouse (CWG) shareholders have approved the merger with 99.86% and 100% of the votes cast in favour.
The Second Court Hearing is on 3 February and the merger will be implemented on 12 February, which is when the passive buying could commence.
Sigma Healthcare has continued to trade higher on a record margin and sales expansion for CWG and expected passive buying that could top A$3bn over the next few months.

Daihatsu Diesel’s (6023) Big Buyback and Quasi Change of Control

Yesterday, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg (6023 JP) announced that it would buy back shares in a Tender Offer and that its controlling “parent” would also sell shares to a private company.
The accretion is significant, and the shareholder structure changes significantly. It is not quite an Exedy-like situation though. The register changes but it doesn’t clear.
But the backdrop is considerably different than the MTMP, and that means this smallcap is worth a closer look.

Global Foods Creators (7559) – Another Stupidly Cheap MBO With Rigged DCF

Today after the close, Global Food Creators (7559 JP) announced that the CEO would sell his 1.23% of the company into an MBO by a company he set up.
The family company which owns 27%, and he would fund the takeover of the other 73% with 1% equity taken from his share sale, and 99% bank loans.
The TOB is at 0.65x book for a cash-rich company. Liquidate the cash and the rest is being taken over at 0.33x book. Aaaaargh.

Takeda Pharma (4502) – Strong Results

Today Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced earnings which will mean last year was the trough, not this year. The pipeline looks OK too.
The company also announced a ¥100bn buyback and a change of CEO. The buyback has a big number, but it isn’t particularly exciting.
All in all, there’s positive news here, but it is all much of a muchness, but as it is a nine-figure buyback in 3mos, we take a look.

SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Throws off Some Serious Flow Trading Plays with Plenty of Juice

By Sanghyun Park

This 20% reversion and 30% cap setup creates solid flow trades. With just 13 holdings, SOL ETF’s weight swings hard—Hanwha Ocean’s already pushing 27% post-rebal.
Constituent changes drive the biggest dislocations—still the main setup. “The other 10” names are FICS-screened by market cap (May/Nov cut), making rotations fairly predictable.
With AUM only ramping recently, this ETF is still in price discovery mode. Pre-positioning ahead of flows has juice, making it a prime target for aggressive flow trading.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: How Apple Helped TSMC Become #1; Also Morris Chang Comments on TSMC ADR Premium

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

PC Monitor: Snapdragon’s Surge, AMD’s Gains, Intel’s Test; Long Asus & Dell
Memory Monitor: Is DeepSeek a Problem for SK Hynix & Micron’s HBM DRAM Growth?
TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): Earthquake Impact Limited; Setting Newest Production Line Not Viable in US.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Jan 2025 Ranks

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-January 2025.

Dropsuite (DSE AU): NinjaOne’s A$5.90/Share Scheme

By David Blennerhassett

Dropsuite (DSE AU), a backup, recovery and protection software company, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Texas-based IT automation outfit NinjaOne.
NinjaOne is offering A$5.90/share, a 34.1% premium to last close. Apart from Dropsuite’s shareholder approval, the Offer requires FIRB signing off. The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards.
The Offer also has the backing of Dropsuite’s largest shareholder, Topline Capital (31%). Board & management hold a further 9%. Implementation is expected late May 2025. This is done.

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Jan 30

Daily Brief Private Markets: Episode 102: Deeeeeepseeeeeeek! and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

Episode 102: Deeeeeepseeeeeeek!
The AI Model That Tanked the Stock Market

Episode 102: Deeeeeepseeeeeeek!

By The Circuit

Deepseek, formerly a quantitative hedge fund, has transitioned to building foundational AI models, causing a stir in the tech community
Their recent paper on transformer LLM models has sparked interest and confusion, particularly regarding training and inference costs
Despite claims of training on a small pool of GPUs, it is speculated that Deep Seq has access to tens of thousands of GPUs, challenging traditional notions of cost and capabilities in AI research.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

The AI Model That Tanked the Stock Market

By Odd Lots

Market sees major losses in tech complex, catalyzed by introduction of Chinese AI model Deepseek
Concerns arise about cheap Chinese competitor impacting market heavily invested in AI companies
Zvi Moshevitz, AI expert, discusses Deepseek model’s training cost and optimization techniques

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Jan 30

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): DeepSeek AI: A Buzz or a Revolution? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

DeepSeek AI: A Buzz or a Revolution?
Ohayo Japan | Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft Hit Hard
#93 India Insight: Indian Media Sues OpenAI, L&T Loses Submarine Tender, UBS Explores JV in India.
DeepSeek R1: An Attempt at Rearranging the World’s AI Furniture & Global Influence
Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Signals from Tech and Semi’s but After-Mkt Moves Pointing Higher
Palladium Price to Double Within a Decade
Platinum Demand to Grow from 2025 Onwards
Japan’s Retail Week

DeepSeek AI: A Buzz or a Revolution?

A relatively unknown Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has recently caused a stir in Silicon Valley challenging the dominance of established giants like OpenAI, Alphabet (GOOGL US) Meta Platforms (Facebook) (META US).
DeepSeek’s V3 model has a total of 671Bn parameters, or settings inside the AI model that it adjusts as it learns, it is actually only using 37Bn at a time.
The reported $5.5 million figure is not the total cost for developing DeepSeek-V3, it represents a significant portion of the training expenses.

Ohayo Japan | Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft Hit Hard

By Mark Chadwick

US markets fall as tech stocks slide – Fed holds rates, Nvidia drops 4% on export concerns, Meta and Microsoft decline post-earnings, while Tesla rises despite weak results.
Fed cautious on inflation and rates – Officials see trade and immigration pressures, inflation remains elevated, job market solid, and a higher bar for further rate cuts.
Strong earnings from Japan Inc. – Advantest’s profit up 2.7x, Makita’s net profit up 65%, & Shin Etsu’s profit rises 6%.

#93 India Insight: Indian Media Sues OpenAI, L&T Loses Submarine Tender, UBS Explores JV in India.

By Sudarshan Bhandari

Indian media firms, including NDTV, Network18, and the Indian Express, filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, accusing the company of scraping their content to train AI models without proper copyright permission.
Larsen & Toubro (LT IN) lost a Rs 70,000 crore tender for building six submarines after its bid was deemed non-compliant by the Defence Ministry.
UBS is in advanced talks with India’s 360 One WAM to form a joint venture aimed at expanding its wealth management presence in India, a rapidly growing market for HNI.

DeepSeek R1: An Attempt at Rearranging the World’s AI Furniture & Global Influence

By Pyari Menon

DeepSeek R1 is more than an open-source AI platform; it’s a geopolitical tool designed to reshape global collaboration, attract talent, and influence AI standards under the guise of transparency.
DeepSeek R1’s low-budget claim crafts the illusion of cost-efficiency, aimed at redirecting capital away from expensive U.S.-based AI ventures toward China’s AI ecosystem.
Launched during Trump’s inward-focused rhetoric, DeepSeek projects China as a viable, inclusive, and progressive alternative to the U.S., signaling a collaborative economic and trade option for nations.

Japan Morning Connection: Mixed Signals from Tech and Semi’s but After-Mkt Moves Pointing Higher

By Andrew Jackson

Huge print from ASML set a positive tone, but the potential for tighter NVDA restrictions weighed on sentiment.
Big selling for Corning off the highs as guidance not enough to justify the run… may see weakness in Fujikura and Furukawa.
Strong numbers from Advantest will also help sentiment for Japan SPE.

Palladium Price to Double Within a Decade

By Gaius King

Investment community is too bearish on Pd, a strategic metal, it has strong growth dynamics looking forward. Future supplies will be physically constrained, whether from Russia and/or South Africa.
Palladium (Pd) demand to grow 26% over the next decade. Production dominated by Russia and South Africa. Russian production sustainability under question
Virtually all global Pd production is via by-product. Significant price rises required to incentivise additional supply

Platinum Demand to Grow from 2025 Onwards

By Gaius King

Global platinum demand declined ~18% in the past decade, with the consumption nadir will be reached during 2025.
Decline in diesel vehicle sales have plateaued, with Industrial/chemical demand to exceed autocatalyst by 2035.
Platinum prices to remain flat for foreseeable future, but others in the basket may climb (e.g. palladium).

Japan’s Retail Week

By Michael Causton

Key events in Japanese retailing this week include Muji raising forecasts for this FY and opening its biggest store ever, at 8,500 sqm as it goes after the food market.
LINE Yahoo acquires Beenos in a bid to capture more of the fast-expanding cross-border e-commerce market.
Fast growing, and Zozo-owned, online mall Yutori buys a cosmetics brand and in a sign of the serous labour shortage, Familymart moves to single manager franchises.

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Jan 30

Daily Brief ECM: Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Sector Sentiment Sours and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Sector Sentiment Sours, Exercise Caution on IPO
Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Disease Biotech IPO Garnering Attention from Sector Investors
SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis
SailPoint IPO Valuation Analysis: Paying Debt With IPO Proceeds and $1B+ ARR in FY26
Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Biotech Order Book Is “Hot”; Set for Friday IPO Debut
Ather Energy Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Outpaced by Rivals

Infinity Natural Resources (INR): Sector Sentiment Sours, Exercise Caution on IPO

While this company is well-positioned in its sector and has a prudent growth strategy and balance-sheet flexibility, the short term “sector winds” are now blowing in a different direction.
Venture Global (VG) debuted last Friday with a major price cut and a more disappointing debut.
Our sources state that the official message regarding the deal is that the offering is multiple-times oversubscribed from long-only and energy-dedicated funds.

Maze Therapeutics Inc. (MAZE): Kidney Disease Biotech IPO Garnering Attention from Sector Investors

The company is performing an abbreviated four-day roadshow and has gained momentum with interest from sector-dedicated investors.
According to our sources, the deal was considered oversubscribed at launch from a mix of new and existing investors.
Typically, the biotech IPOs that are eager to come out of the gates in January have fared overwhelmingly better than those that trickle out later in the year.

SGIC IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

Our base case valuation of Seoul Guarantee Insurance is target price of 32,463 won per share, which is 2.1% higher than the high end of the IPO price range.
All in all, we are not particularly impressed with SGIC’s lack of top-line sales growth and worsening operating profit and margins in 1Q-3Q 2024.
Despite the much lower IPO price range and a promise for higher shareholder returns, we remain Negative on this IPO.

SailPoint IPO Valuation Analysis: Paying Debt With IPO Proceeds and $1B+ ARR in FY26

By Andrei Zakharov

SailPoint, a founder-led provider of identity security for the modern enterprise, aims to raise up to $1B to pay off debt.
The company ended last quarter at $813M of implied ARR and I see a clear path to $1B+ ARR in FY26 ended Jan 30, 2026.
I believe SailPoint may consider IPO at valuation above take-private transaction of ~$6.9B in 2022. The company is expected to go public in February.

Metsera Inc (MTSR): Obesity Drug Biotech Order Book Is “Hot”; Set for Friday IPO Debut

The GLP-1 market has experienced a recent boom and Metsera is capitalizing on this with a well-times IPO.
According to our sources, the deal is well-oversubscribed with the books closing Wednesday at 4pm for a Friday debut.
The company is seeking a mega valuation of$1.8b if priced at the high-end of the range. An IPO valuation at these levels would put the company in “rare-company”.

Ather Energy Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Outpaced by Rivals

By Sumeet Singh

Ather Energy is looking to raise about US$536m in its upcoming India IPO.
Ather is a pure play electric vehicle company in India designing and developing E2Ws, battery packs, charging infrastructure, associated software and accessories, also manufacturing battery packs and assembling E2Ws in-house.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Jan 30

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Daihatsu Diesel’s (6023) Big Buyback and Quasi Change of Control and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Daihatsu Diesel’s (6023) Big Buyback and Quasi Change of Control
Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approves CWG Merger
CyberAgent 1Q: Media Business Continues to Show Solid Growth
Makita (6586) | Powering Up
Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
[Earnings Review] Halliburton Q4 Performance Impacted by North America Weakness
Jafco- Continues to Perform
Thai Banks 4Q24 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB) Is in the Early Re-Rating Stages
Did Hynix Meet Expectations ?
[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Chevron’s Options Activity Reflects Market Caution Ahead of Q4 Earnings

Daihatsu Diesel’s (6023) Big Buyback and Quasi Change of Control

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Yesterday, Daihatsu Diesel Mfg (6023 JP) announced that it would buy back shares in a Tender Offer and that its controlling “parent” would also sell shares to a private company.
The accretion is significant, and the shareholder structure changes significantly. It is not quite an Exedy-like situation though. The register changes but it doesn’t clear.
But the backdrop is considerably different than the MTMP, and that means this smallcap is worth a closer look.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approves CWG Merger

By Tina Banerjee

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) announced that more than 99% of the shareholders cast vote in favor of the merger with CWG. The merger now remains subject to court approval.
The court hearing is scheduled on February 3, 2025. If the Court approves the merger, it is expected that implementation of the merger scheme will occur on February 12, 2025.
CWG continued healthy performance, with double-digit like-for-like retail network sales growth and 400bps EBIT margin expansion in H1FY25. We are bullish on the long-term growth prospect of the merged entity.

CyberAgent 1Q: Media Business Continues to Show Solid Growth

CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP) reported 1QFY09/2025 results today. 1Q revenues beat consensus but reported OP fell below consensus due to weak gaming margins.
The key highlight of the quarter was the strong results of the Media business whose revenues saw strong growth with strengthened profitability.
Though game earnings were slightly weak during 1Q, we would not be too worried as app analysis data reveals that the segment is off to a strong start in 2QFY09/2025.

Makita (6586) | Powering Up

By Mark Chadwick

Margin recovery drives stock higher – Operating profit beat estimates, margins rebounded to 13.6%, and forex gains provided a boost despite weak sales.
European rebound offers upside – Makita, with 20% market share, is set to benefit from a forecasted 2025 construction sector recovery after two years of contraction.
Valuation remains attractive – With improving ROIC, inventory normalisation, and steady growth prospects, a DCF model suggests an 18% upside for the stock.

Jafco Co Ltd (8595 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

Revenue increased by 73.9% YoY to JPY25.4bn, with operating profit rising 149.6% YoY to JPY11.2bn.
Capital gains reached JPY10.9bn, with JPY7.6bn from IPO-related share sales and JPY3.4bn from unlisted shares.
Total investment executed in cumulative Q3 FY03/25 was JPY30.6bn, with JPY14.5bn for domestic VC investments.

[Earnings Review] Halliburton Q4 Performance Impacted by North America Weakness

By Suhas Reddy

Halliburton’s Q4 revenue fell by 2.3% YoY and missed estimates by 0.4% due to weakness in North America. However, its EPS beat estimates by 0.7%.
Completion & Production revenue fell 4.2% YoY due to reduced activity in North and Latin America. Drilling & Evaluation revenue grew 0.4% YoY driven by growth in the Middle East.
In Q4, Halliburton repurchased USD 309 million in stock and generated USD 1.1 billion in free cash flow. Full-year repurchases totalled USD 1.6 billion.

Jafco- Continues to Perform

By Rikki Malik

The company has had good 2024 absolute and relative to Topix performance.
Will Jafco continue this winning streak into 2025 and beyond?
Results for the quarter ending December 2024 are encouraging with exit multiples increasing

Thai Banks 4Q24 Screener; Krung Thai (KTB TB) Is in the Early Re-Rating Stages

By Victor Galliano

Krung Thai remains our core value pick among the Thai banks driving its solid post-provision profitability higher, delivering double-digit ROE, a sound balance sheet and attractive PBV and PE ratios
Krung Thai has the highest core capital ratios as well as delivering the best ROE of the peer group, along with one of the best efficiency ratios versus its peers
Its share price performance has been strong, yet we believe that this positive momentum should continue as Krung Thai still has scope to narrow the valuation gap with SCBx

Did Hynix Meet Expectations ?

By Ken S. Kim

As we hit Chinese New Year break, we want to examine if Hynix’s earnings and investor call met investor expectations
6 key questions going in and where we are post SK Hynix (000660 KS) reporting and before Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) reports early February
The consensus is that the key questions were not answered. Well, not all answered and some remains to be seen.

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Chevron’s Options Activity Reflects Market Caution Ahead of Q4 Earnings

By Suhas Reddy

Chevron to report its Q4 earnings on 31/Jan, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually. For 2024 also, revenue and EPS are expected to drop.
As of 29/Jan, Chevron’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 21.12%, with an IV rank of 43.95% and an IV percentile of 75%.
Chevron’s OI by strike for the 31/ Jan expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 162.5, 165, and 167.5, while puts are prominent at strikes of 150, 152.5, and 155.

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Jan 30

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Event Driven: Vedanta Ltd: A Story of Wealth Creation Through Demerger and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Event Driven: Vedanta Ltd: A Story of Wealth Creation Through Demerger
Play the Timing Sweet Spot Between KOSPI 200 Rebal and Short Selling Coming Back into Play
Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Shareholders Approve Merger; Passives Could Start Buying in Two Weeks
Dropsuite (DSE AU): NinjaOne’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

Event Driven: Vedanta Ltd: A Story of Wealth Creation Through Demerger