Smartkarma Daily Briefs

There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

Samsung Heavy Industries (010140.KQ) – Offshore Momentum, LNG Tailwinds Justify Premium

By Rahul Jain

SHI reported robust Q1 2025 results with revenue of KRW 2.49T (+6% YoY) and operating profit of KRW 123B (+58% YoY), reflecting improved offshore project execution and margin expansion.
Management reiterated FY2025 guidance of KRW 10.5T revenue and KRW 630B operating profit, with offshore accounting for ~40% of new orders and a USD 9.8B full-year target
With LNG carrier replacement demand, FLNG ramp-up, and leadership in eco-vessels, SHI’s earnings trajectory supports its 22x FY27E P/E, despite execution and competition risks.

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Jun 16

Daily Brief United States: BILL Holdings , Walmart, Warner Music Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

2024 High Conviction Update: BILL Holdings, Attractive Valuation Levels To Unwind Bearish Positions
Walmart Raises Alarm on Tariffs: What Shoppers Need to Brace For!
Warner Music Group Is Fighting AI With the NO FAKES Act—Why It Could Change the Industry Forever!

2024 High Conviction Update: BILL Holdings, Attractive Valuation Levels To Unwind Bearish Positions

By Andrei Zakharov

BILL Holdings shares have materially underperformed year-to-date and fell ~51%. Shares saw selling pressure post 2QFY25 earnings as results indicated weak outlook.
I see limited room for downside given current valuation of ~3x 2025E EV/Revenue (with ~13% growth) and recent acquisition of AvidXchange at a higher multiple.
I believe BILL’s current attractive valuation levels can be viewed as opportunity to unwind bearish positions and valuation looks more reasonable vs. peers, especially AvidXchange.

Walmart Raises Alarm on Tariffs: What Shoppers Need to Brace For!

Walmart reported a solid first quarter for fiscal 2026, with results exceeding analysts’ expectations and reflecting resilience amid a volatile economic environment.
The company posted adjusted earnings of 61 cents per share, surpassing the 58-cent consensus estimate, and saw revenue grow 2.5% year over year to $165.6 billion.
U.S. same-store sales rose 4.5%, outpacing the projected 3.9% increase.

Warner Music Group Is Fighting AI With the NO FAKES Act—Why It Could Change the Industry Forever!

Warner Music Group (WMG) reported its fiscal second-quarter results for the period ended March 31, 2025.
The company’s financial performance during this period was relatively stable, although it faced a variety of challenges impacting growth.
Total revenue increased by a modest 1%, with Recorded Music revenue also growing by 1% and Music Publishing revenue by 3%.

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Jun 16

Daily Brief China: Cgn Mining, Wanguo International Mining, Pop Mart International Group L, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, HKEX, CaoCao Inc, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences , Bayzed Health Group and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining
MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Stocks at Their Highs
Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?
Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – Firing on All Cylinders, Strong Outlook For FY26
HKEX (388 HK) Options: Unpacking the Top Trades of the Week
CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case
Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Placement Good, A Long Term Bet for Sure
Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy/Infra Index Rebalance: Double Inclusion for CGN Mining

There is 1 add/delete for each of the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index and the MarketVector Global Uranium and Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
Cgn Mining (1164 HK) is an add to both indices. Endesa SA is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Index, Encore Energy is a delete from the Uranium&Nuclear Energy Infrastructure Index.
The net round-trip trade across both indices is US$560m with capping changes resulting in much bigger flow for the MVIS Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Index.

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Stocks at Their Highs

There are no constituent changes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in June but there are plenty of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 4.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$528m. There are 5 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The sell flows in Evolution Mining (EVN AU) will partially offset the buying from the passive S&P/ASX 50 Index trackers.

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Beyond Blind Boxes -Jewellery Debut. Stock Up 200% YTD. Is It Still a Buy?

By Devi Subhakesan

Pop Mart International Group (9992 HK) opened its first dedicated jewellery concept store, POPOP, in Shanghai last Friday, featuring accessories based on its best-selling characters like Labubu, Molly, and Skullpanda.
The jewellery line represents a natural, high-return extension of Pop Mart’s brand. If scaled successfully, it could support overall revenue growth, enhance group margins, and contribute to higher returns.
Expect high margin, high return casual jewellery business to support growth and uplift margins going forward and lead to analyst upgrades to future revenues/earnings.

Chow Tai Fook(1929 HK) – Firing on All Cylinders, Strong Outlook For FY26

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

Resilient FY25 Margins: Despite a 17.5% revenue drop, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) expanded operating margins by 400bps through cost control and premium product mix.
Brand-Led Recovery in FY26: Signature launches, digital sales, and store optimization to drive Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) recovery and sustain high operating leverage.
Valuation Supported by Fundamentals: Valuation at 20.8x P/E (TTM) valuation justified by strong ROE (>20%), margin leadership, and stable dividend payout (~88%) versus regional jewellery peers.

HKEX (388 HK) Options: Unpacking the Top Trades of the Week

By Gaudenz Schneider

Be inspired by sophisticated, live, multi-leg options strategies on HKEX (388 HK), executed over the period from 9 to 13 June.
Highlights: Discover a range of noteworthy strategies, for example a self-financing Diagonal Put Spread using weekly options, or a Diagonal Call Spread generating 3.9% upfront yield.
Why read: This breakdown of complex option strategies sheds light on market sentiment and positioning. Detailed examples provide actionable insights that could inspire similar strategies,

CaoCao IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is the second-largest ride-hailing player in China. It has filed its PHIP to raise US$200-300 million.
In CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case, I highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, I outline the bear case.
The bear case rests on low net take rates, unfavourable trends of key cost items, expected losses in the current year and a stretched balance sheet.

Shanghai Junshi Bioscience (1877 HK): Placement Good, A Long Term Bet for Sure

By Tina Banerjee

Shanghai Junshi Biosciences (1877 HK) is placing 41M H shares for subscription at HK$25.35 per H Share.
Shanghai Junshi intends to use 70% of the net proceeds from the placement for innovative drug development and balance 30% for general corporate purposes such as replenishment of working capital.
Early green shoots in the form of lower R&D expenses and narrowing losses. Junshi offers for a good long-term bet as the company turning profitable will take some time.

Pre-IPO Bayzed Health Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

The positioning of Bayzed is just “a supplement to public hospitals system”, with limited scale and competitiveness, which is a point that investors may need to be aware of.
A big problem in the operation of Bayzed is the loss status/weak profitability. At current gross margin level, it would be difficult for Bayzed to deliver good returns for investors.
Valuation of Bayzed should be lower than Inkon Life Technology and Hygeia. The Pre-IPO valuation is not cheap, and the valuation upside potential may be limited considering weak profitability.

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Jun 16

Daily Brief Japan: Abc Mart Inc, Kitazato, Kioxia Holdings and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

ABC Mart Extends Lead in Japan’s Footwear Market as Competitors Contract
Kitazato (368A JP): Greenshoe Nudges It Closer to Global Index Inclusion, but Shortfall Remains
ECM Weekly (16 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Kitazato, Primo, Kioxia, Xtalpi, Horizon, Keymed, Wuxi

ABC Mart Extends Lead in Japan’s Footwear Market as Competitors Contract

By Michael Causton

The footwear retail sector is a one horse race, with that horse being ABC Mart.
It continues to grow at a respectable rate while increasingly diminutive rivals contract.
ABC Mart is expanding further into the apparel category too, providing more room for future growth.

Kitazato (368A JP): Greenshoe Nudges It Closer to Global Index Inclusion, but Shortfall Remains

By Dimitris Ioannidis

Kitazato (368A JP) is forecasted to fail the market cap and float cap threshold of Global-F SmallCap even with the full exercise of the greenshoe.
Kitazato (368A JP) is expected to come close but miss the float cap threshold of Global-M SmallCap.
The full exercise of the greenshoe increases the probability of inclusion in Global-M SmallCap at the November 2025 review.

ECM Weekly (16 June 2025) – Haitian, Sanhua, Kitazato, Primo, Kioxia, Xtalpi, Horizon, Keymed, Wuxi

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Foshan Haitian Flavouring & Food (603288 CH) launched its IPO, while Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd. (002050 CH) has been pre-marketing.
On the placements front, there were a number of large deals acros the region, along with some large lockup expiries.

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Jun 16

Daily Brief India: Inventurus Knowledge Solutions and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

Inventurus IPO Lockup: US$2.4bn Lockup Release; Pre-IPO Investors May Monetize

Inventurus IPO Lockup: US$2.4bn Lockup Release; Pre-IPO Investors May Monetize

By Nicholas Tan

Inventurus Knowledge Solutions (IKSINCD IN) raised around US$295m in its India IPO in Dec 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
It is a technology-enabled healthcare solutions provider, assisting physician enterprises in US, Canada and Australia, with a core focus in the US.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

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Jun 15

Most Read: KE Holdings , Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls, Nexon, Hyundai Rotem Company, HLB Inc, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Genesis Minerals, Vingroup Jsc, FnGuide Inc and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: 10 Changes & Big Impact
Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK): Big Raise Supported by Cornerstones
Tencent To Acquire Nexon? Time and Price Lining Up for a Final Deal?
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
HLB Merger Arb’s Unique Timing Dynamics for a Juicy 8% Swap Spread
A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 June 2025): HUGE H-Share Outperf Across The Board, “Beautiful Skew Move”
HEW: Geopolitics Blow Hot And Warm
MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes
MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add, Capping & Float Changes
Korea Small Cap Gem #36: FnGuide [Increasing Moat for Its Index Business]

CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index Rebalance: 10 Changes & Big Impact

There are 5 constituent changes for the CSI Hong Kong Connect Internet Index in June. Plus there are capping changes for some stocks.
A lot of the adds have moved significantly in the last couple of days, so the impact over the next couple of days will be smaller.
There could be opportunities to trade the reversion strategy. Getting borrow may not be easy on some names.

Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK): Big Raise Supported by Cornerstones

Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co. (002050 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.4bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.
There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22.7% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK).
The H-shares should be added to Southbound Stock Connect in July, to the HSCI in September, and to a global index in December.

Tencent To Acquire Nexon? Time and Price Lining Up for a Final Deal?

By Douglas Kim

Tencent has been interested in acquiring Nexon for more than six years. However, the timing and price were not right for such a deal to take place in the past.
The higher probability scenario is for Kim’s family members to sell when the timing and price is right. This time around, a $15 billion could be the right price.
Late founder Kim’s family members own a 44.4% stake in Nexon through NXC Corp and its affiliate NXMB BV. Kim’s wife and daughters own a 67.6% stake in NXC Corp.

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.
There will be 3 ADDs for the MV Global Defense Index in June 2025.
We expect one-way flow of US$505mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 8.8%.

HLB Merger Arb’s Unique Timing Dynamics for a Juicy 8% Swap Spread

By Sanghyun Park

Some local desks think the company pushed the timeline back to align with a potential FDA Class 1 approval for Rivoceranib expected by July.
No word yet if it’s Class 1 or 2; Class 2 means November decision. Despite risks, local hedge desks are building arb plays, betting on the July FDA timing dynamics.
No FDA decision by July means Class 2 and a sell-off, hitting HLB Co. hardest. Class 1 approval boosts both stocks, cuts cancellation risk, and sets the 8% spread floor.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 June 2025): HUGE H-Share Outperf Across The Board, “Beautiful Skew Move”

AH spreads are SHARPLY narrower. The effect is dramatic across the “skew” i.e. very wide AH premia contracted more than very narrow premia. BYD is on its own.
This smells very much like someone knows something. I expect RMB dual counters may be in the works. Caixin had an article Friday.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

HEW: Geopolitics Blow Hot And Warm

By Phil Rush

Israel’s attack on Iran squeezes supply in an unwelcome shock that is harder for central bankers to look through post-pandemic. Warming US-China relations had less impact.
Avoidance measures have helped mitigate the tariff shock so far, with US CPI holding steady. The importance of recent disappointing UK demand data is easy to overstate.
The BoE is set to hold rates, probably with two dovish dissents and no commitment to August. UK inflation should slow with airfares normalising and a vehicle tax correction.

MV Australia Resources Index Rebalance: Two Adds, Float & Capping Changes

Capricorn Metals (CMM AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) will be added to the Vaneck Vectors Australian Re (MVR AU) in June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8% and a round-trip trade of A$49m.
There has been short covering in both adds over the last couple of years. While short interest is relatively smaller in Capricorn Metals, it is much higher in Genesis Minerals.

MarketVector Vietnam Local Index Rebalance: One Add, Capping & Float Changes

BAF Viet Nam Agriculture JSC (BAF VN) will be added to the MarketVector Vietnam Local Index at the close on 20 June.
Estimated one-way turnover is 9% and that results in a round-trip trade of US$74m. There are 5 stocks with more than 1x ADV to trade from passives.
Vingroup Jsc (VIC VN) and Vinhomes (VHM VN) stock prices have soared over the last few months and capping results in selling at this rebalance.

Korea Small Cap Gem #36: FnGuide [Increasing Moat for Its Index Business]

By Douglas Kim

FnGuide has been able to capitalize on its excellent brand name in the financial industry (especially for research used in equity trading) to profitably expand into the index development business.
Although the index business accounted for 25% of its sales in 2024, it has been the fastest growing business in the past six years.
Valuations are reasonable and it is trading at 27% below four year historical EV/EBITDA basis. We like FnGuide as a long-term investment story.

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Jun 15

Daily Brief ESG: One of the Clues to Know How Serious a Company Is About Shifting to Management that Creates Value and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

One of the Clues to Know How Serious a Company Is About Shifting to Management that Creates Value

One of the Clues to Know How Serious a Company Is About Shifting to Management that Creates Value

By Aki Matsumoto

The driver of higher stock valuations is overseas investors, and engagement by overseas investors is likely to have a positive effect on return on capital and stock valuations.
In many aspects, companies seem to be unwilling to face shareholders. If they don’t confront shareholders and proceed with management reforms, they will not be able to implement serious initiatives.
It can be hypothesized that the behavior of prioritizing control over the AGM over engaging with shareholders provides a clue as to the seriousness of a company’s efforts.

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Jun 15

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): APAC Healthcare Weekly (June 15)- CSPC and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

APAC Healthcare Weekly (June 15)- CSPC, Wuxi Bio, Samsung Bio, Daiichi Sankyo, SanBio, Cochlear

APAC Healthcare Weekly (June 15)- CSPC, Wuxi Bio, Samsung Bio, Daiichi Sankyo, SanBio, Cochlear

By Tina Banerjee

CSPC entered research collaboration with AstraZeneca for oral small molecule drug discovery utilizing CSPC’s AI-driven drug discovery platform. Wuxi Biologics kicked off construction of new microbial manufacturing site in China.
Samsung Biologics signed a CDMO contract worth more than KRW100B (~$73M) with an unnamed European pharmaceutical company. Daiichi Sankyo initiates Phase 3 trial of Enhertu in first-line breast cancer.
SanBio has completed filing a partial change application of marketing approval of Akuugo. Cochlear introduces Nucleus Nexa system, the world’s first and only smart cochlear implant system.

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Jun 15

Daily Brief Industrials: Hyundai Rotem Company, Azoom, Hino Motors Ltd, Sandvik AB, Copart Inc, Cgn Mining, Enersys and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: US$1.1bn Round-Trip Trade as Stocks Soar
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jun 2025)
Last Week in Event SPACE: Hino Motors, Hong Kong’s Peg, Zijin Mining, MINISO
Sandvik’s Bold Manufacturing Play: Can It Weather the Next Global Crisis? – Initiation of Coverage
Copart Is Winning Big From Insurance Chaos—Here’s How It’s Snatching Market Share!
[Quiddity Index] MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations
EnerSys Just Unlocked a Multi-Billion Dollar Opportunity With Its Motive Power Breakthrough; What Lies Ahead?

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Defense Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

The MV Global Defense Industry Index represents the performance of companies in national defense industries.
There will be 3 ADDs for the MV Global Defense Index in June 2025.
We expect one-way flow of US$505mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 8.8%.

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: US$1.1bn Round-Trip Trade as Stocks Soar

Hyundai Rotem, RENK Group and Karman Holdings will be added to the MV Global Defense Industry Index after the close of trading on 20 June.
Constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.8% and a round-trip trade of US$1.1bn.
The index has moved up steadily over the last few years and the ETF has taken in a big chunk of money over the last 6 months.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jun 2025)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
GMO Financial Gate (4051 JP) and Azoom (3496 JP) have confirmed their moves to the Prime Market which would trigger TOPIX Inclusions for these names at the end of July.
Kitazato (368A JP) is expected to get listed in the Prime market in late-June and that name would also have a TOPIX Inclusion at the end of July.

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hino Motors, Hong Kong’s Peg, Zijin Mining, MINISO

By David Blennerhassett

Is Hino (7205 JP) a short or a long at ¥366/share? Suggest short, but also selling more as the stock goes up, and buying back the short on big dips.
A Bloomberg op-ed piece concludes it is time to move on from “from an archaic currency regime“. That conclusion on the Hong Kong peg appears presumptuous. And uninformed.
A spin-off makes sense as Zijin (2899 HK) capitalises on the upward cycle in gold prices. However, Zijin is trading at a single-digit NAV discount. Before any holding company discount.

Sandvik’s Bold Manufacturing Play: Can It Weather the Next Global Crisis? – Initiation of Coverage

Sandvik’s first quarter of 2025 showcased varied performance across its business segments and regions, colored by a mix of positive and challenging elements within the broader macroeconomic context.
The company’s Mining segment showed significant momentum, driven by robust demand and major orders in Australia and South America, contributing to a 7% increase in organic order intake.
Conversely, the Cutting Tools and Infrastructure divisions displayed continued strain from economic uncertainties, with notable declines in key markets such as Europe and North America.

Copart Is Winning Big From Insurance Chaos—Here’s How It’s Snatching Market Share!

Copart, Inc.’s Q3 2025 earnings highlight several noteworthy aspects of its performance and market dynamics, offering a balanced view of the company’s current standing and future challenges.
The company’s global unit sales increased by 1%, with a more notable rise of 2% on a per-business-day basis.
This growth, however, masks a flat performance in the U.S. segment and a decrease in U.S. insurance unit volume by nearly 1% year-over-year.

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy Jun25 Rebalance Results: Flow Expectations

The MV Global Uranium & Nuclear Energy index represents the performance of the biggest and the most liquid companies in the Uranium and Nuclear industries.
Cgn Mining (1164 HK) will be an ADD and Endesa SA (ELE SM) will be a DELETE in June 2025.
There are also some big capping flows so we expect a one-way flow of US$227mn for June 2025, which translates to a turnover of 15.7%.

EnerSys Just Unlocked a Multi-Billion Dollar Opportunity With Its Motive Power Breakthrough; What Lies Ahead?

EnerSys reported its fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2025 results, reflecting both strengths and challenges that are integral to its ongoing business strategy and market environment.
The company achieved a notable 7% increase in revenue for the fourth quarter, marking its second-highest revenue quarter ever, with a record adjusted diluted EPS of $1.86.
A significant contribution came from the Motive Power segment, which exhibited strong margin growth, and overall, EnerSys reported solid contributions from the recently acquired Bren-Tronics.

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Jun 15

Daily Brief Event-Driven: HLB Merger Arb’s Unique Timing Dynamics for a Juicy 8% Swap Spread and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

HLB Merger Arb’s Unique Timing Dynamics for a Juicy 8% Swap Spread
A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 June 2025): HUGE H-Share Outperf Across The Board, “Beautiful Skew Move”
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 13 June 2025); Volumes Up, TECH Down, HEALTHCARE Bought Big
Last Week in Event SPACE: Hino Motors, Hong Kong’s Peg, Zijin Mining, MINISO
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: New World Res., Fuji Corp, TRYT, Shinsung Tongsang, Austal, Mitsu. Shokuhin

HLB Merger Arb’s Unique Timing Dynamics for a Juicy 8% Swap Spread

By Sanghyun Park

Some local desks think the company pushed the timeline back to align with a potential FDA Class 1 approval for Rivoceranib expected by July.
No word yet if it’s Class 1 or 2; Class 2 means November decision. Despite risks, local hedge desks are building arb plays, betting on the July FDA timing dynamics.
No FDA decision by July means Class 2 and a sell-off, hitting HLB Co. hardest. Class 1 approval boosts both stocks, cuts cancellation risk, and sets the 8% spread floor.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 13 June 2025): HUGE H-Share Outperf Across The Board, “Beautiful Skew Move”

AH spreads are SHARPLY narrower. The effect is dramatic across the “skew” i.e. very wide AH premia contracted more than very narrow premia. BYD is on its own.
This smells very much like someone knows something. I expect RMB dual counters may be in the works. Caixin had an article Friday.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 13 June 2025); Volumes Up, TECH Down, HEALTHCARE Bought Big