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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jun 13
0

Daily Brief Australia: Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure L, Jupiter Mines and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Dalrymple Bay Infra Placement – Good Track Record but Might Be Too Chunky
  • Exxaro’s Strategic Moves: Potential Full Buyout of Jupiter Mines Following JV Acquisition in Manganese Sector

Dalrymple Bay Infra Placement – Good Track Record but Might Be Too Chunky

By Sumeet Singh

Exxaro’s Strategic Moves: Potential Full Buyout of Jupiter Mines Following JV Acquisition in Manganese Sector

By Special Situation Investments

  • Jupiter Mines’ valuation is implied at A$0.315/share, a 60% premium to current trading levels, following a JV sale.
  • Exxaro Resources acquired a 20% stake in Jupiter Mines at A$0.315/share, indicating interest in further consolidation.
  • The Tshipi Borwa mine, a Tier 1 asset, contributes ~6% to global manganese supply, primarily for steel production.

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Jun 13
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • US treasury yields declined yesterday, led by the short end, given softer than expected CPI data and a solid auction for the 10Y notes.
  • The UST curve bull-steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST down 7 bps at 3.95%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 5 bps to 4.42%.
  • Equities halted a three-day advance, albeit remaining near record-high levels. 

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Jun 13
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Sui (SUI): High Valuation and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Sui (SUI): High Valuation, Early‑Stage Adoption

Sui (SUI): High Valuation, Early‑Stage Adoption

By Tatja Karkkainen

  • Sui commands an ~US$11 bn market cap (FDV US$34 bn) barely two years after launch, yet real‑world usage is still embryonic. 
  • Claimed throughput of 297 k TPS contrasts with currently observed ~48 TPS (peak 335). 
  • A restrictive validator set, modest staking yields, looming token unlocks, and limited developer traction undermine the decentralisation and growth narrative.

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Jun 13
0

Daily Brief China: Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Consun Pharmaceutical, Geely Auto, Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co., Ltd., Everest Medicines, Netdragon Websoft, CaoCao Inc, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery, Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited, Shandong Fengxiang and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off
  • Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Biotech Sep25: Three Changes Likely + One Intra-Review Change
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: 1 Low-Conviction Change + 1 FAF Revision; US$1.3bn One-Way
  • Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK): Big Raise Supported by Cornerstones
  • Everest Medicine Placement: Another Sell-Down by CBC, Some Caution Warranted
  • Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Sep25: Some Changes to Expectations; Trade Idea Successful
  • CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case
  • Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Decent Rebound
  • Eternal Beauty Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Perfumes Growing, Challenges Remain
  • Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG Invites Dissent After Scrapping Scrip Alternative

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 30th April 2025, Zijin Mining (2899 HK)  said it planned to spin off its overseas gold mine assets on the Hong Kong exchange.
  • The newly created unit, Zijin Gold International, owns/operates mines in South America, Central Asia, Africa and Oceania, including the Buritica project in Colombia, the nation’s largest gold mine.
  • A Circular is now out concerning the spin-off, which is not subject to shareholder approval. Pegged to peers, Zijin appears fully valued.

Quiddity Leaderboard Hang Seng Biotech Sep25: Three Changes Likely + One Intra-Review Change

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The Hang Seng Biotech index (HSHKBIO) represents the 50 largest biotech companies listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for the HSHKBIO index rebal event in September 2025.
  • Based on the latest data, we see three ADDs and three DELs.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSTECH Sep25: 1 Low-Conviction Change + 1 FAF Revision; US$1.3bn One-Way

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The HSTECH Index tracks the performance of the top 30 technology companies listed in Hong Kong that have high business exposure to certain technology themes.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSTECH index rebal event in September 2025.
  • We see one low-conviction ADD/DEL and one significant float percentage revision which could collectively trigger roughly US$1.3bn in one-way index flows in September 2025.

Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK): Big Raise Supported by Cornerstones

By Brian Freitas

  • Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co. (002050 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.4bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.  
  • There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22.7% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK). 
  • The H-shares should be added to Southbound Stock Connect in July, to the HSCI in September, and to a global index in December.

Everest Medicine Placement: Another Sell-Down by CBC, Some Caution Warranted

By Nicholas Tan

  • Everest Medicines (1952 HK) aims to raise around US$150m in a secondary sell-down of shares conducted by CBC Group.
  • This comes on the heels of a similar secondary sell down in Jan 2025, whereby CBC sold ~US$100m worth of stock, priced at a 10% discount. 
  • In this note, we comment on the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Quiddity Leaderboard HSIII Sep25: Some Changes to Expectations; Trade Idea Successful

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The Hang Seng Internet & IT (HSIII) index represents the top 30 stocks related to internet and information technology businesses listed in Hong Kong (HKEX).
  • In this insight, we take a look at potential index changes and capping flows for HSIII index rebal event in September 2025.
  • Based on the latest data, we see three ADDs and three DELs and one significant float percentage revision.

CaoCao IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • CaoCao Inc (1646553D CH) is the second-largest ride-hailing player in China. It has filed its PHIP to raise US$200-300 million.   
  • CaoCao was incubated by Geely Auto (175 HK). Geely founder Li Shufu owns 83.9% of CaoCao.
  • The bull case rests on accelerating GTV growth, the improving fundamentals of the core business, reducing losses and shifting to cash generation. 

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Decent Rebound

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • While Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) has a stellar share price performance YTD, it still lags the HSI since 2023. The solid 2H FY25 result should support further upside. 
  • SSS growth has recovered sharply in Apr-May 2025 (the first two months of 1Q FY26), and CTF should reap further benefits from cost management and product transformation.
  • FY26F ROE may reach 27.2%. While its current yield is only 4.6%, it is possible to declare special dividend this year, easily pushing it to over 10%.

Eternal Beauty Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Perfumes Growing, Challenges Remain

By Sumeet Singh

  • Eternal Beauty Holdings (EB) is looking to raise around US$150m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Eternal Beauty is the largest brand management company of perfumes in the combined markets of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, in terms of retail sales in 2023.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note we talk about the PHIP updates.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG Invites Dissent After Scrapping Scrip Alternative

By David Blennerhassett

  • In an unusual move, the Offeror, PAG, and 59.42% shareholder of Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), has opted not to provide a scrip alternative, despite satisfying conditions to do so. 
  • The scrip option condition – not less than 0.5% of shares out expressing interest – was satisfied on the 12th May. Therefore at least 7.9mn shares got snubbed.
  • Evidently PAG reckons the support for the scrip is not worth the trouble. Nor critical in mass to disrupt the Offer. 

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Jun 13
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Elevator Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Emergence of North Korea Reconciliation Related Stocks Starting to Outperform

Emergence of North Korea Reconciliation Related Stocks Starting to Outperform

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the emergence of the North Korea reconciliation related stocks that are starting to outperform. We have seen this playbook before.
  • With the new President Lee Jae-Myung, there is likely to be an outperformance of some of these stocks once again.
  • Among the 6 stocks listed above, we believe Hyundai Elevator is one of best stocks to capitalize on the increased reconciliation with North Korea.

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Jun 13
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan M&A] Hino & Mitsubishi-Fuso Truck to Join; Bagholding Ugly for Minorities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan M&A] Hino & Mitsubishi-Fuso Truck to Join; Bagholding Ugly for Minorities, and a Re-IPO
  • More Accurate Context Behind Tencent’s Nexon Moves Reported by Bloomberg
  • Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off
  • Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK): Big Raise Supported by Cornerstones
  • Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG Invites Dissent After Scrapping Scrip Alternative
  • Fengxiang (9977 HK): No Share Alternative Offer
  • Exxaro’s Strategic Moves: Potential Full Buyout of Jupiter Mines Following JV Acquisition in Manganese Sector
  • Mind the NAV: Long Harbour’s Lowball Pitch for PRS

[Japan M&A] Hino & Mitsubishi-Fuso Truck to Join; Bagholding Ugly for Minorities, and a Re-IPO

By Travis Lundy

  • On the 10th of June, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) subsidiary Hino Motors Ltd (7205 JP) and Mitsubishi-Fuso Truck & Bus Company announced their long-awaited integration plans. We have a deal.
  • An agreement was signed in 2023, but Hino got in big trouble for falsifying testing data on gasoline engine emissions/efficiency. Hino took a hit in 2023, then 2025. Talks advanced. 
  • The deal announced suggests Toyota has thrown itself and Hino minorities under the proverbial Fuso bus. It’s VERY odd. But… it deserves a look because 2026 will see a re-IPO.

More Accurate Context Behind Tencent’s Nexon Moves Reported by Bloomberg

By Sanghyun Park

  • Government aims to sell 30.6% NXC stake by 2027 for ₩4T tax revenue, offering NXC a buyback or selling with management control to attract bidders.
  • The family won’t buy back the 30.6% stake but may allow partial management rights, with Tencent eyeing that stake—not a full $15B Nexon buyout as Bloomberg suggested.
  • Tencent’s targeting that stake chunk only, no control shift, so no mandatory tender offer triggered—at least for now.

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 30th April 2025, Zijin Mining (2899 HK)  said it planned to spin off its overseas gold mine assets on the Hong Kong exchange.
  • The newly created unit, Zijin Gold International, owns/operates mines in South America, Central Asia, Africa and Oceania, including the Buritica project in Colombia, the nation’s largest gold mine.
  • A Circular is now out concerning the spin-off, which is not subject to shareholder approval. Pegged to peers, Zijin appears fully valued.

Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls (2050 HK): Big Raise Supported by Cornerstones

By Brian Freitas

  • Zhejiang Sanhua Intellignt Controls Co. (002050 CH)‘s global offering opens today and the raise could reach up to US$1.4bn if the offer-size adjustment option and the overallotment option are exercised.  
  • There is a large allocation to cornerstone investors. The discount of around 22.7% to the A-shares is attractive given the recent trend for Midea (300 HK) and CATL (3750 HK). 
  • The H-shares should be added to Southbound Stock Connect in July, to the HSCI in September, and to a global index in December.

Fengxiang (9977 HK): PAG Invites Dissent After Scrapping Scrip Alternative

By David Blennerhassett

  • In an unusual move, the Offeror, PAG, and 59.42% shareholder of Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK), has opted not to provide a scrip alternative, despite satisfying conditions to do so. 
  • The scrip option condition – not less than 0.5% of shares out expressing interest – was satisfied on the 12th May. Therefore at least 7.9mn shares got snubbed.
  • Evidently PAG reckons the support for the scrip is not worth the trouble. Nor critical in mass to disrupt the Offer. 

Fengxiang (9977 HK): No Share Alternative Offer

By Arun George

  • PAG has decided not to introduce the share alternative offer. Therefore, its offer for Shandong Fengxiang (9977 HK) will be all-cash at HK$2.00 per H share.
  • The recent Goldlion and Soundwill deal breaks have undoubtedly increased the vote risk, particularly as the blocking stake is below the HKEx substantial shareholder disclosure threshold. 
  • The decision not to introduce the share alternative offer underscores PAG’s confidence in the vote. The lack of protest votes at the recent AGM is helpful for the scheme vote. 

Exxaro’s Strategic Moves: Potential Full Buyout of Jupiter Mines Following JV Acquisition in Manganese Sector

By Special Situation Investments

  • Jupiter Mines’ valuation is implied at A$0.315/share, a 60% premium to current trading levels, following a JV sale.
  • Exxaro Resources acquired a 20% stake in Jupiter Mines at A$0.315/share, indicating interest in further consolidation.
  • The Tshipi Borwa mine, a Tier 1 asset, contributes ~6% to global manganese supply, primarily for steel production.

Mind the NAV: Long Harbour’s Lowball Pitch for PRS

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • PRS trades near offer price; market expects completion, but IRR is low unless pullback entry.
  • Revised offer or interloper could unlock material upside versus deep NAV discount.
  • Scheme route likely adds time, but brings execution certainty—watch for end-June updates.

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Jun 13
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H, Jupiter Mines, Crude Oil, Mineros SA, Vedanta Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off
  • Exxaro’s Strategic Moves: Potential Full Buyout of Jupiter Mines Following JV Acquisition in Manganese Sector
  • [ETP 2025/24] WTI Rises on Trade Hopes, Geopolitics; Henry Hub Slips on Weak Near-Term Outlook
  • MSA: Heavily Cash Flowing, Dividend Paying Gold Producer
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Fully Valued Ahead Of (Expected) Gold Unit Spin-Off

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 30th April 2025, Zijin Mining (2899 HK)  said it planned to spin off its overseas gold mine assets on the Hong Kong exchange.
  • The newly created unit, Zijin Gold International, owns/operates mines in South America, Central Asia, Africa and Oceania, including the Buritica project in Colombia, the nation’s largest gold mine.
  • A Circular is now out concerning the spin-off, which is not subject to shareholder approval. Pegged to peers, Zijin appears fully valued.

Exxaro’s Strategic Moves: Potential Full Buyout of Jupiter Mines Following JV Acquisition in Manganese Sector

By Special Situation Investments

  • Jupiter Mines’ valuation is implied at A$0.315/share, a 60% premium to current trading levels, following a JV sale.
  • Exxaro Resources acquired a 20% stake in Jupiter Mines at A$0.315/share, indicating interest in further consolidation.
  • The Tshipi Borwa mine, a Tier 1 asset, contributes ~6% to global manganese supply, primarily for steel production.

[ETP 2025/24] WTI Rises on Trade Hopes, Geopolitics; Henry Hub Slips on Weak Near-Term Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 06/Jun, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.6m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.4m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
  • The EIA reported a 109 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 108 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 5.4% above the five-year average but 8.6% below year-ago levels.
  • Shell targets 12 MMT of new LNG capacity by 2030, while TotalEnergies partners with Mistral AI to enhance its low-carbon, multi-energy strategy using artificial intelligence.

MSA: Heavily Cash Flowing, Dividend Paying Gold Producer

By Atrium Research

  • Mineros is focused on the production of gold across its two producing assets in Colombia and Nicaragua having produced 213Koz in 2024.
  • MSA currently pays the highest dividend amongst its peers at 5.6% and has various growth initiatives in the works.
  • Despite being one of the best performing gold producers amongst its peers (up 276% since January 2024), MSA is still undervalued, trading at just 3.8x 2025E cash flow of $129M.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • US treasury yields declined yesterday, led by the short end, given softer than expected CPI data and a solid auction for the 10Y notes.
  • The UST curve bull-steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST down 7 bps at 3.95%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 5 bps to 4.42%.
  • Equities halted a three-day advance, albeit remaining near record-high levels. 

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Jun 13
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Decent Rebound and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Decent Rebound
  • Emergence of North Korea Reconciliation Related Stocks Starting to Outperform
  • Alphawave Ditches WiseWave Before Embracing Qualcomm Bid. But Why?
  • TSMC: Review of Client Roadmaps, Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 12 June (ABN Amro | Besi | Heineken | KPN | InPost | DHL)
  • Team Internet Group — Ten-year deal to run the .co domain
  • Denso Corp(6902 JP)–Value Zone, Upgraded Growth Outlook, Sooner Resolution of Cross-Holding Overhang
  • WTR Biotech Spotlight Podcast Recap Apimeds Pharmaceuticals US, Inc. (APUS)
  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Positive Momentum Persists, New Agreements Adds Steam
  • Molten Ventures — FY25 results: Staying resilient

Chow Tai Fook (1929 HK): A Decent Rebound

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • While Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) has a stellar share price performance YTD, it still lags the HSI since 2023. The solid 2H FY25 result should support further upside. 
  • SSS growth has recovered sharply in Apr-May 2025 (the first two months of 1Q FY26), and CTF should reap further benefits from cost management and product transformation.
  • FY26F ROE may reach 27.2%. While its current yield is only 4.6%, it is possible to declare special dividend this year, easily pushing it to over 10%.

Emergence of North Korea Reconciliation Related Stocks Starting to Outperform

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the emergence of the North Korea reconciliation related stocks that are starting to outperform. We have seen this playbook before.
  • With the new President Lee Jae-Myung, there is likely to be an outperformance of some of these stocks once again.
  • Among the 6 stocks listed above, we believe Hyundai Elevator is one of best stocks to capitalize on the increased reconciliation with North Korea.

Alphawave Ditches WiseWave Before Embracing Qualcomm Bid. But Why?

By William Keating

  • Qualcomm’s recently rumoured desire to acquire UK-listed Alphawave finally came to fruition on June 9 with a US$2.4 billion offer
  • Just two days earlier, on June 7, Alphawave announced that the company had disposed of its interest in China-based JV, WiseWave Technology
  • What is WiseWave Technology, why did Alphawave invest in it and why is it now divesting that interest prior to the Qualcomm acquisition?

TSMC: Review of Client Roadmaps, Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC May Sales at Record High; Rumored A16 Pricing Underscores Strategic Moat in Advanced Nodes
  • Review of Client Roadmaps Shows TSMC Positioned as Indispensable Enabler of AI and Advanced Compute Products
  • We Maintain Our Structural Long Rating on TSMC; Inexpensive Despite Recent Rally

What’s News in Amsterdam – 12 June (ABN Amro | Besi | Heineken | KPN | InPost | DHL)

By The IDEA!

  • In today’s edition: • ABN Amro | restructuring within Corporate Banking • BE Semiconductor Industries | increases long-term financial targets • Heineken | intends to invest USD 2.75bn in Mexico until 2028 • KPN | VodafoneZiggo secures access to part of Delta Fiber’s network • KPN | CEO denounces ‘populistic discussion’ on high broadband tariffs • InPost | court dismisses motion for injunction against Yodel • DHL | CMA to start DHL/EVRi merger inquiry

Team Internet Group — Ten-year deal to run the .co domain

By Edison Investment Research

Team Internet’s 10-year deal to run the .co top-level domain (TLD) enhances the growth prospects for Domains, Identity and Software (DIS), the group’s highest-quality division in terms of revenue diversity and visibility. Growth prospects may strengthen with ICANN’s planned new Generic Top-Level Domains (gTLD) Program, scheduled for 2026. This is welcome news at a time when visibility for Search is low. Our estimates are unchanged, but we see upside potential to our 55p/share sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation for DIS as prospects strengthen, and believe that the current valuation factors in modest prospects for DIS and Comparison and no value for Search.

Denso Corp(6902 JP)–Value Zone, Upgraded Growth Outlook, Sooner Resolution of Cross-Holding Overhang

By Sreemant Dudhoria,CFA

  • Cross-Holding Overhang Easing:Denso Corp (6902 JP) accelerates exit from Toyota Industries stake via tender offer, unlocking capital and aligning with capital efficiency and governance reforms.
  • Profitability Set to Improve: FY2026 profit outlook strong, driven by reduced quality-related costs, better operating leverage, and ongoing cost controls post fuel pump recall.
  • Valuation Comfort with Growth Drivers: Stock trades below historical average P/E; SDV, electrification, and semiconductor focus positions Denso well for re-rating amid sector tailwinds.

WTR Biotech Spotlight Podcast Recap Apimeds Pharmaceuticals US, Inc. (APUS)

By Water Tower Research

  • Apimeds US is a clinical-stage biopharma company that is developing an intradermal bee venom-based toxin, Apitox, for pain associated with inflammatory conditions, including knee OA and multiple sclerosis (MS), for the US market.
  • Apitox is licensed from Apimeds, Inc. in South Korea (Apimeds Korea), where the therapy has Korean approval as Apitoxin for treatment of OA.
  • Honeybee venom has anti-inflammatory and analgesic properties.

Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Positive Momentum Persists, New Agreements Adds Steam

By Tina Banerjee

  • Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) and Knight Therapeutics (GUD CN) entered into exclusive license and supply agreements to commercialize Myfembree, Orgovyx, and vibegron in Canada.
  • Sumitomo Pharma and Novo Nordisk A/S (NOVOB DC) have entered into a co-promotion agreement in Japan for Ozempic subcutaneous injection.
  • Streamlining efforts and scouting for new revenue streams augurs well. Sumitomo stock remains in contention, up 27% in last 5 days.

Molten Ventures — FY25 results: Staying resilient

By Edison Investment Research

Molten Ventures confirmed the key highlights from its FY25 trading statement published in April, including a positive uptick in portfolio valuations and, in turn, a 4% NAV per share total return in H225 (1.4% in FY25 to end-March 2025), strong cash realisations of c £135m in FY25 (ahead of the original guidance of £100m) and a robust cash balance of £89m at end-March 2025. Molten has collected a further £30m in proceeds so far in FY26 from the exits of Lyst and Freetrade. The company earmarked £30m of its FY25 proceeds for share buybacks amid a continued wide discount to NAV (c 53% at present), of which £24m has been executed to date.

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Jun 13
0

Daily Brief Macro: UK: Retreating To Trend Again and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • UK: Retreating To Trend Again
  • US Treasuries: YOU BREAK IT YOU BOUGHT IT!
  • Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Industrial Activity
  • [ETP 2025/24] WTI Rises on Trade Hopes, Geopolitics; Henry Hub Slips on Weak Near-Term Outlook
  • Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 13 June 2025
  • Middle East FX, June 12th 2025

UK: Retreating To Trend Again

By Phil Rush

  • Residual seasonality shocked the consensus again, this time on the downside, as the spurious surge is replaced with stagnation for the rest of the year in our view.
  • The 0.3% m-o-m decline dragged GDP back toward its trend, wiping out the highly supportive statistical carryover effect for Q2, which we now forecast at 0.1% q-o-q.
  • BoE forecasts are on track, allowing the MPC’s bias to slow easing to materialise with a pause. We expect cuts to keep being rolled later, with no more delivered in this cycle.

US Treasuries: YOU BREAK IT YOU BOUGHT IT!

By David Mudd

  • The US Administration is undermining foreign demand for dollar assets at the same time, supply for US treasury debt is rapidly expanding.
  • The Fed is constrained from lowering the Fed Funds rate due to rising yields in the long end of the treasury market. 
  • The long end of the US Treasury market is feeling the effects of Trump’s tariff policies.  The US equity market will follow as risk premiums rise.

Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Industrial Activity

By Actinver

  • Industrial activity advanced 0.1% MoM in a mixed report.
  • Notably, manufacturing showed resilience, with growth recorded in nearly all industries.
  • The observed figure came in below our estimate of 0.4% MoM and was in line with market consensus. 

[ETP 2025/24] WTI Rises on Trade Hopes, Geopolitics; Henry Hub Slips on Weak Near-Term Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 06/Jun, U.S. crude inventories fell by 3.6m barrels (vs. expectations of a 2.4m barrel decline). Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose more than expected.
  • The EIA reported a 109 Bcf storage build, while analysts forecasted a 108 Bcf increase. Storage levels are 5.4% above the five-year average but 8.6% below year-ago levels.
  • Shell targets 12 MMT of new LNG capacity by 2030, while TotalEnergies partners with Mistral AI to enhance its low-carbon, multi-energy strategy using artificial intelligence.

Walker’s Weekly: Dr. Jim’s Summary of Key Global Macro Developments – 13 June 2025

By Dr. Jim Walker

  • India cuts interest rates as currency pressure eases, aiming to boost private investment without triggering inflation concerns.

  • China’s exports rise overall despite a sharp drop to the US, showing strength through trade diversification.

  • Regional trade flows shift sharply, with Taiwan and Vietnam surging ahead of potential tariffs, while uncertainty clouds second-half investment outlook.

Middle East FX, June 12th 2025

By Denis Collot

  • Since retaking the White House , President Trump and his former chum have been busy gutting any kind of independent agencies in charge of oversight.
  • Not a good time to be a whistle blower, you are on your own. One we mentioned before, the PCAOB : Public Company Accounting Oversight Board.
  • It was created in 2002 to oversee accounting professionals and auditing companies in the wake of the Enron and WorldCom’s scandals. 

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Jun 13
0

Daily Brief India: SAI Life Sciences, Oswal Pumps, Vedanta Resources, Divi’s Laboratories and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Sai Life Sciences IPO Lockup – US$840m Lockup Release; TPG Asia up 5.8x with a 24.8% Stake
  • Oswal Pumps IPO – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Divi’s Laboratories (DIVI IN): Double-Digit Growth and Margin Improvement to Continue

Sai Life Sciences IPO Lockup – US$840m Lockup Release; TPG Asia up 5.8x with a 24.8% Stake

By Akshat Shah

  • SAI Life Sciences (SAILS12 IN) raised around US$360m in its India IPO in Dec 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
  • Sai Life Sciences is a contract research, development and manufacturing organisation providing end-to-end services across drug discovery, development and manufacturing value-chain, for small to global pharmaceutical innovators and biotechnology firms.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

Oswal Pumps IPO – RHP Updates & Thoughts on Peer Comp and Valuation

By Akshat Shah

  • Oswal Pumps (1019841D IN) is looking to raise about US$162m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal has been downsized from an earlier size of around US$250m.
  • Oswal Pumps Ltd (OPL) specializes in the manufacturing of solar-powered and conventional pumps, electric motors, and related components for agricultural, residential, and industrial applications.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the RHP updates and IPO valuations.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Trung Nguyen

  • US treasury yields declined yesterday, led by the short end, given softer than expected CPI data and a solid auction for the 10Y notes.
  • The UST curve bull-steepened, with the yield on the 2Y UST down 7 bps at 3.95%, while the yield on the 10Y UST fell 5 bps to 4.42%.
  • Equities halted a three-day advance, albeit remaining near record-high levels. 

Divi’s Laboratories (DIVI IN): Double-Digit Growth and Margin Improvement to Continue

By Tina Banerjee

  • Divi’s Laboratories (DIVI IN) ended FY25 on a strong note. Continued momentum in CS business, recovery in generic business, and significant margin improvement are the key highlights of Q4FY25 result.
  • Divi’s is witnessing sustained momentum in CS, with a healthy uptick in RFPs and regular site visits. Favorable product mix, stable raw material, and logistics prices will improve overall margin.
  • Moving ahead, the company is looking to maintain double-digit revenue growth. This compares favorably with less than 2% revenue CAGR over the last three years.

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