Smartkarma Daily Briefs

• Introduction to the Odd Lots Podcast with hosts Jill Wiesenthal and Tracy Alloway
• Discussion with guest Sean Sham Sankar, CTO of Palantir, about defense spending and technology
• Focus on the importance of data integration and human decision-making in the defense industry

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• Amazon faced ~900 Mn FX headwind in 4Q’24 which was ~700 mn higher than assumed.
• For the third consecutive quarters, AWS grew 19% YoY. Ads grew by +18% YoY, and revenues in other segments increased by mostly High Single Digit (HSD) rate.
• I’ll discuss more about AWS later, but let’s talk more about Amazon ex-AWS first.

• The first software IPO of 2025 is checking all the boxes and is expected to deliver strong returns versus issue price when it debuts on February 13th.
• There are currently two anchor orders on this deal which have each indicated for up to 20% of the offering (AllianceBernstein & Dragoneer Investment Group). 
• The IPO market is “eager and ready” for the technology window to open up. We like the risk-reward profile of this deal at this time. 

• Occidental’s Q4 revenue and EPS are expected to drop 2.6% and 9.5% YoY, with full-year 2024 declines of 3.8% and 10%, respectively.
• Occidental’s average realised worldwide oil price dropped by 7.4% QoQ and 11.6% YoY to USD 69.73/b. Conversely, its average realised global NGL price rose by 6.5% QoQ and 4.2% YoY.
• The STRATOS plant, one of the largest DAC projects globally, will begin operations by mid-2025. It is expected to capture up to 500,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.

• ExxonMobil reported earnings of $34 billion for the year, marking its third-highest result over the past decade, despite facing softer market conditions.
• This financial outcome underscores ExxonMobil’s robust operational efficiency and strategic agility.
• The five-year average return on capital employed (ROCE) stands at an industry leading 11%.

• Palantir Technologies Inc. saw a significant surge in its stock price following a robust earnings report that surpassed analyst expectations.
• The company projected full-year 2025 revenue of approximately $3.75 billion, exceeding the $3.54 billion consensus estimate.
• Adjusted operating income is anticipated to be around $1.56 billion, highlighting Palantir’s continued momentum in artificial intelligence and government contracts.

• BP set to report its Q4 and 2024 earnings on 11/Feb, with revenue and EPS projected to fall by 10% YoY and 57%, respectively.
• As of 06/Feb, BP’s implied volatility (IV) stands at 35.21%, with an IV rank of 82.9% and an IV percentile of 99%.
• BP’s OI by strike for the 07/Feb expiry shows calls concentrated at strikes 31.5, 32, and 32.5, while puts dominate at 29.5, 30, and 30.5.

• Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. reported strong fiscal second-quarter results for 2025, characterized by a 9% growth in recurring revenues and a significant 70% increase in adjusted earnings per share (EPS).
• A key driver of the revenue growth was organic expansion of 7%, as well as a boost from the acquisition of SIS.
• Additionally, Broadridge set a new quarterly record with its event-driven revenues, demonstrating the company’s ability to capitalize on transient market opportunities.

• For the week ending 31/Jan, US crude inventories increased by 8.7m barrels, exceeding expectations of a 2.4m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks fell more than expected.
• US natural gas inventories fell by 174 Bcf for the week ending 31/Jan, beating analyst expectations of a 167 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 4.4% below the 5-year seasonal average.
• TotalEnergies’ Q4 adjusted earnings rose 8.1% QoQ and beat estimates by 4.8% led by robust growth in the LNG and Integrated Power divisions.

• Apple delivered a solid revenue forecast for the current quarter, reassuring investors after mixed holiday results that highlighted both strengths and challenges.
• The company expects revenue growth in the low- to mid-single digits, aligning with analysts’ projections.
• This guidance helped stabilize Apple’s stock after initial concerns about weaker-than-expected sales in China and a slight decline in iPhone revenue.