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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

May 19
0

Daily Brief Credit: EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

By Leandro Gubler

  • The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 17 bps to 315 bps in the week ending Friday, May 16, 2025, and is now trading 26 bps below its 3-month average.
  • MELI 1Q25: Impressive Growth, Little Room for Further Spread Compression / YPF 1Q25: Margin Expansion and Strategic Progress Back Outperformance View
  • Suzano 1Q25: Credit Metrics Improve Despite EBITDA Miss, Remain Outperform / Minerva 1Q25: Integration and Deleveraging Underpin Outperformance View

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May 19
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: [Japan Buybacks] ¥7.3trln of Buybacks Announced In the Last Month – Data on Each and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • [Japan Buybacks] ¥7.3trln of Buybacks Announced In the Last Month – Data on Each, Plus History
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.
  • Merger Arb Mondays (19 May) – Seven & I, Nissin, Welcia/Tsuruha, Mayne, ESR, OneConnect, Frasers
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong
  • Reject Shop (TRS AU): 23rd June Vote On Dollarama’s Offer
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May ’25 Report

[Japan Buybacks] ¥7.3trln of Buybacks Announced In the Last Month – Data on Each, Plus History

By Travis Lundy

  • Buybacks are a central part of Corporate Japan’s effort to improve corporate/capital governance. Lots of cross-holders want/need to sell. Lots of companies want to reduce excess equity.
  • This earnings season has seen a LOT of new buybacks announced. ¥7.3trln in the last month and that doesn’t even include the biggest buybacks extant by March-end companies.
  • We are experimenting with new ways of displaying data/analytics for buybacks in Japan. To that end, we have a new tool. We hope users find it useful. We invite feedback.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.

By Travis Lundy

  • AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) AH is negative now, maybe on HSTECH inclusion expectations.
  • I didn’t expect much out of Geneva last weekend. I was wrong in that there was a big announcement, but maybe not wrong because content was pretty slim.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Merger Arb Mondays (19 May) – Seven & I, Nissin, Welcia/Tsuruha, Mayne, ESR, OneConnect, Frasers

By Arun George

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes averaged more than HK$100bn a day this past week, which gets us back above halfway to the peak earlier this spring. Net flows were negative HK$8bn+.
  • Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, financials, utilities, and energy REALLY stand out. Among top sells, industrials, info tech, and consumer discretionary are tops.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Reject Shop (TRS AU): 23rd June Vote On Dollarama’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 27th March, Reject Shop (TRS AU), a discount variety store, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Canadian outfit Dollarama (DOL CN).
  • Dollarama Offered A$6.68/share, a 112% premium to last close. The Offer does NOT require FIRB signing off. The Offer has the backing of TRS’ largest shareholder, Kin Group (20.8%). 
  • The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 23 June, and expected payment on or before the 22nd July. The IE (Kroll) says “fair & reasonable“.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May ’25 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.
  • The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A is at irrational highs (54.2%); the discount of Grifols B has tightened (Brookfield is again knocking at the door). 
  • Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.

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May 19
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25, Main Business Growth Recovered to 12% YoY, Buy
  • KE (BEKE): In 1Q25, Rental and New Home Revenues Up by 94% and 64%
  • How Nexon (3659) Got Its Mojo Back
  • Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Leqembi at a Growth Juncture as New Markets Open Up; Margins Under Pressure
  • China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast
  • Belrise Industries IPO: Strategic OEM Partner, Deleveraging Move Faces Structural Headwinds
  • Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM): Inflection In Q1 2025, More Catalysts To Come
  • PC Monitor: Asus Results Warn of Coming Slowdown; PCs’ Next Edge AI Shift
  • SGX Group (SGX SP): Likely More Listings. Triggered by Trade Tensions, Tax Perks

Alibaba (BABA): 4Q25, Main Business Growth Recovered to 12% YoY, Buy

By Ming Lu

  • Management claimed 4Q25 total revenue should grow by 10% YoY excluding two sold subsidiaries.
  • The growth rate of customer management revenue rose to two digits in 4Q25.
  • The main business margin was stable and most of the minor business margins rose YoY in 4Q25.

KE (BEKE): In 1Q25, Rental and New Home Revenues Up by 94% and 64%

By Ming Lu

  • In 1Q25, BEKE’s active stores increased by 29% YoY and total revenue increased by 42% YoY.
  • New home revenue and rental revenue grew by 64% YoY and 94% YoY in 1Q25.
  • We believe the stock price can double and is undervalued for the concerns on the general property market.

How Nexon (3659) Got Its Mojo Back

By Michael Allen

  • Nexon underperformed the software segment by 32% in the past 12 months, and analysts expect earnings to decline over the next 5 years.
  • But the company beat Q1 consensus EBIT estimates.by 54% and the stock lurched 17% the very next day.
  • Nexon’s business is immune to tariffs and tends to perform well in recessions. The company’s pipeline appears to be stronger than anyone imagined.

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Leqembi at a Growth Juncture as New Markets Open Up; Margins Under Pressure

By Tina Banerjee

  • In FY25, Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) reported 6% YoY growth in revenue, driven by 3Ls. Operating profit rose 2% YoY and net profit climbed 9% YoY to ¥46B.
  • Eisai guided for FY26 revenue of ¥790B, flat YoY. Revenue for Leqembi is expected to grow significantly (¥76.5B, up 73% YoY). Operating profit is expected to remain flat at ¥54.5B.
  • Leqembi’s potential market expansion holds promise, especially in the developed economies with the proportion of aged population gradually on the rise and with a dearth of suitable treatment options available.

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

By Nicolas Baratte

  • More US restrictions on export of SPE Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms (CXMT, SMIC, YMTC). The big increase in Chinese spending was done over 2023-24, it’s declining in 2025-26. 
  • Chinese domestic SPE vendors are growing fast and gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. ASML is a monopoly below 65nm. KLA is very dominant. Focus on best 2: ASML, KLA.
  • China’s efforts to grow its own supply chain and equipment makers will continue, AMEC and Naura are the leaders. Consolidation could start. 

Belrise Industries IPO: Strategic OEM Partner, Deleveraging Move Faces Structural Headwinds

By Rahul Jain

  • Belrise Industries, founded by the Badve family, is a leading auto component maker launching its Rs2,150 crore IPO from May 21–23, 2025, at a price band of Rs85–90.
  • It supplies key chassis and metal parts to top OEMs like Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, and HMSI, playing a critical role across ICE and EV platforms.
  • While most proceeds are earmarked for debt repayment, high working capital needs suggest leverage could rebuild as the business scales.

Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM): Inflection In Q1 2025, More Catalysts To Come

By Sameer Taneja

  • Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE PM) reported an encouraging Q1 2025 with revenue/operating income up 82%/72% YoY, buoyed by the acquisition of PDS. 
  • Despite acquiring 91.6% of PDS (as of 15 May 2025), the company has net cash and investments of 4.8 bn pesos, representing more than 30% of its current market capitalization. 
  • Trading at 13x PE, with a >6% forward dividend yield, and ex-cash ROCE>20%, the stock is cheap. We believe there is a long runway for growth with multiple catalysts.

PC Monitor: Asus Results Warn of Coming Slowdown; PCs’ Next Edge AI Shift

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • ASUS beat 1Q25 expectations, but flagged tariff risks and a potential PC demand slowdown in 2H25 as consumers front-load purchases ahead of pricing uncertainty.
  • PC segment growth outperformed the market, led by >30% YoY gains in commercial PCs and strong momentum in AI-capable and gaming systems.
  • On-Device AI execution is emerging as the next PC evolution; Asus is preparing for this shift with GX10 edge devices and deeper integration of AI across product lines.

SGX Group (SGX SP): Likely More Listings. Triggered by Trade Tensions, Tax Perks

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Reported surge in listing interest on SGX (SGX SP) driven by escalating U.S.- China trade tensions and associated geopolitical uncertainties.
  • Singapore’s proactive policy toolkit announced in February 2025  offer issuers both cost savings and regulatory certainty and could play a role in attracting more companies to list in Singapore.
  • An uptick in listings on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) can set off a virtuous cycle, strengthen valuation multiples  and lead to upward revisions to 2026 earnings forecasts.

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May 19
0

Daily Brief Macro: S&P 500: A Healing Patient Who Needs Rest and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500: A Healing Patient Who Needs Rest
  • “What-Ifs”
  • What the Trade Détente Means for Investors

S&P 500: A Healing Patient Who Needs Rest

By Cam Hui

  • The bullish recovery of the S&P 500 has been astounding in speed and magnitude.
  • We are upgrading the signal of our Trend Asset Allocation Model from bearish to neutral.
  • In the short run, the rally has left the market extended and it may need to take a breather.

“What-Ifs”

By Thomas Lam

  • What if the proportion of core CPI categories experiencing upward inflation momentum is on the rise?
  • What if the improvement in the more persistent categories of CPI inflation has more-or-less stalled?
  • What if longer-term inflation expectations are no longer wiggling sideways or actually creeping higher?

What the Trade Détente Means for Investors

By Cam Hui

  • The prospect of a Sino-American trade détente has taken recession risk off the table. 
  • The S&P 500 is on course to recover from a bear market, but faces headwinds from policy unpredictability. 
  • Investors should position in a diversified portfolio of global assets and gradually diversify away from USD exposure.

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May 19
0

Most Read: Rainbow Robotics, Technopro Holdings, BYD, Sankyo Co Ltd, NetEase , Cosco Shipping Development, Midea Group, China Literature, Seven & I Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Samsung Group ETF Rebalancing Event to Watch for in June
  • [Japan M&A] TechnoPro Holdings (6028) May Be Up For Grabs
  • HSTECH Index Rebalance: BYD (1211 HK) To Replace China Literature (772 HK) As Trade Hits US$6bn
  • [Japan Buybacks] ¥7.3trln of Buybacks Announced In the Last Month – Data on Each, Plus History
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance: Why Did Pop Mart (9992 HK) Miss?
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) & ZTO Express (2057 HK) Added; Inching Towards a 100
  • [Quiddity Index] Six Hang Seng Index Family Indices: Flows for June 6 Rebal
  • TechnoPro (6028 JP): A Good Privatisation Candidate
  • Merger Arb Mondays (19 May) – Seven & I, Nissin, Welcia/Tsuruha, Mayne, ESR, OneConnect, Frasers

Samsung Group ETF Rebalancing Event to Watch for in June

By Sanghyun Park

  • With Samsung finalizing the call option on Rainbow Robotics in February, the FTC will add it to Samsung Group in March, ensuring its inclusion in the ETF by June.
  • With the market cap boost from the call option, Rainbow Robotics is set to easily exceed 2% weight in the ETF by June.
  • The rebalancing from June 2-9 will direct 30% of daily volume into Rainbow Robotics, likely enough to move the needle on price action, especially on the first day.

[Japan M&A] TechnoPro Holdings (6028) May Be Up For Grabs

By Travis Lundy

  • Technopro Holdings (6028 JP) is a temp/contract staffing platform which specialises in engineering staff (IT engineers far more than machinery, construction, chemicals). The company has been growing.
  • Overnight, an article appeared in MergerMarket – a high-dollar M&A-related news service – saying the company was going through a sale process. The company confirmed it was one possibility.
  • The stock went limit up. This quick writeup looks at the framework of the idea, and possibilities.

HSTECH Index Rebalance: BYD (1211 HK) To Replace China Literature (772 HK) As Trade Hits US$6bn

By Brian Freitas

[Japan Buybacks] ¥7.3trln of Buybacks Announced In the Last Month – Data on Each, Plus History

By Travis Lundy

  • Buybacks are a central part of Corporate Japan’s effort to improve corporate/capital governance. Lots of cross-holders want/need to sell. Lots of companies want to reduce excess equity.
  • This earnings season has seen a LOT of new buybacks announced. ¥7.3trln in the last month and that doesn’t even include the biggest buybacks extant by March-end companies.
  • We are experimenting with new ways of displaying data/analytics for buybacks in Japan. To that end, we have a new tool. We hope users find it useful. We invite feedback.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Why Did Pop Mart (9992 HK) Miss?

By Brian Freitas

A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.

By Travis Lundy

  • AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) AH is negative now, maybe on HSTECH inclusion expectations.
  • I didn’t expect much out of Geneva last weekend. I was wrong in that there was a big announcement, but maybe not wrong because content was pretty slim.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance: Midea (300 HK) & ZTO Express (2057 HK) Added; Inching Towards a 100

By Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] Six Hang Seng Index Family Indices: Flows for June 6 Rebal

By Travis Lundy

  • In this insight, we present the flows to buy and sell for each of the top 6 Hang Seng Index Family indices based on estimated tracking AUM.
  • The indices: Hang Seng Index (HSI), HS Tech Index (HSTECH), HS China Enterprise Index (HSCEI), HS HK Biotech (HSHKBIO), HS Internet & Infotech (HSIII), and HS Healthcare Index (HSHCI).
  • By Quiddity calculations based on the 16 May close, there is one-way flow across these six indices of HK$34,556,596,089.99 (approximately), to trade on 6 June. 

TechnoPro (6028 JP): A Good Privatisation Candidate

By Arun George

  • Technopro Holdings (6028 JP)  shares were up 20.7% on Friday based on a Mergermarket report that is conducting a privatisation auction with bids due in six weeks.
  • Technopro responded that it has been continuously exploring various strategic alternatives, including privatisation, to enhance shareholder value. TechnoPro has the characteristics to make a good privatisation target. 
  • The precedent is Bain’s privatisation of Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) at a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.5x. A similar multiple implies a JPY4,400 offer. TechnoPro can justify a higher multiple. 

Merger Arb Mondays (19 May) – Seven & I, Nissin, Welcia/Tsuruha, Mayne, ESR, OneConnect, Frasers

By Arun George

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May 19
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Cosco Shipping Development, Belrise Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.
  • Belrise Industries IPO: Strategic OEM Partner, Deleveraging Move Faces Structural Headwinds

A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.

By Travis Lundy

  • AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) AH is negative now, maybe on HSTECH inclusion expectations.
  • I didn’t expect much out of Geneva last weekend. I was wrong in that there was a big announcement, but maybe not wrong because content was pretty slim.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Belrise Industries IPO: Strategic OEM Partner, Deleveraging Move Faces Structural Headwinds

By Rahul Jain

  • Belrise Industries, founded by the Badve family, is a leading auto component maker launching its Rs2,150 crore IPO from May 21–23, 2025, at a price band of Rs85–90.
  • It supplies key chassis and metal parts to top OEMs like Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, and HMSI, playing a critical role across ICE and EV platforms.
  • While most proceeds are earmarked for debt repayment, high working capital needs suggest leverage could rebuild as the business scales.

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May 19
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Contemporary Amperex Technology, Tencent, Nexon, GMO Internet, ASML Holding NV, Telecom Italia SPA, Asustek Computer and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (18 May) – CATL, Hengrui, ESR, OneConnect, Mayne, Nissin, Nippon Road, TechnoPro
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong
  • CATL (3750 HK): Fast-Entry to Global Indices Unlikely Despite $150B Market Cap
  • How Nexon (3659) Got Its Mojo Back
  • ECM Weekly (19 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Green Tea, SMPP, Unisound, Renesas, Genda, GMO, PayTM
  • GMO Internet Placement: Extremely Overvalued at the Moment
  • China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May ’25 Report
  • PC Monitor: Asus Results Warn of Coming Slowdown; PCs’ Next Edge AI Shift

Weekly Deals Digest (18 May) – CATL, Hengrui, ESR, OneConnect, Mayne, Nissin, Nippon Road, TechnoPro

By Arun George

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 16 May 2025); Volumes Pick Up, Net Flows Drop; Banks Still Strong

By Travis Lundy

  • Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes averaged more than HK$100bn a day this past week, which gets us back above halfway to the peak earlier this spring. Net flows were negative HK$8bn+.
  • Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, financials, utilities, and energy REALLY stand out. Among top sells, industrials, info tech, and consumer discretionary are tops.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

CATL (3750 HK): Fast-Entry to Global Indices Unlikely Despite $150B Market Cap

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • CATL (3750 HK) is forecasted to fail the fast-entry float cap threshold of both global indices due to unlisted shares, locked cornerstone investors and domestic offering.
  • Stock price needs to rise by ~30% on the first trading day to achieve fast-entry to one global index. Offer price is 263HKD and the adjustment option has been exercised.
  • The security is expected to be added to Global Standard in August 2025 and to Global All-World in December 2025, with an elevated free float following the 6-month cornerstone lock-up.

How Nexon (3659) Got Its Mojo Back

By Michael Allen

  • Nexon underperformed the software segment by 32% in the past 12 months, and analysts expect earnings to decline over the next 5 years.
  • But the company beat Q1 consensus EBIT estimates.by 54% and the stock lurched 17% the very next day.
  • Nexon’s business is immune to tariffs and tends to perform well in recessions. The company’s pipeline appears to be stronger than anyone imagined.

ECM Weekly (19 May 2025) – CATL, Hengrui, Green Tea, SMPP, Unisound, Renesas, Genda, GMO, PayTM

By Sumeet Singh

GMO Internet Placement: Extremely Overvalued at the Moment

By Nicholas Tan

  • GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)  is looking to sell its 33.4% stake in its subsidiary GMO Internet (4784 JP)  to meet free-float requirements.
  • Shares are very overvalued at the moment and should be worth a mere fraction of its current trading value.
  • We have looked at the company’s deal dynamics in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss the firm’s outlook as well as valuation.

China – US: More US Restrictions on Chinese Firms, but Chinese Equipment Firms Are Growing Fast

By Nicolas Baratte

  • More US restrictions on export of SPE Semi Production Equipment to Chinese firms (CXMT, SMIC, YMTC). The big increase in Chinese spending was done over 2023-24, it’s declining in 2025-26. 
  • Chinese domestic SPE vendors are growing fast and gaining share from AMAT, LAM, TEL. ASML is a monopoly below 65nm. KLA is very dominant. Focus on best 2: ASML, KLA.
  • China’s efforts to grow its own supply chain and equipment makers will continue, AMEC and Naura are the leaders. Consolidation could start. 

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May ’25 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.
  • The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A is at irrational highs (54.2%); the discount of Grifols B has tightened (Brookfield is again knocking at the door). 
  • Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.

PC Monitor: Asus Results Warn of Coming Slowdown; PCs’ Next Edge AI Shift

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • ASUS beat 1Q25 expectations, but flagged tariff risks and a potential PC demand slowdown in 2H25 as consumers front-load purchases ahead of pricing uncertainty.
  • PC segment growth outperformed the market, led by >30% YoY gains in commercial PCs and strong momentum in AI-capable and gaming systems.
  • On-Device AI execution is emerging as the next PC evolution; Asus is preparing for this shift with GX10 edge devices and deeper integration of AI across product lines.

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May 19
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: YPF SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

By Leandro Gubler

  • The LatAm Aggregate Index contracted by 17 bps to 315 bps in the week ending Friday, May 16, 2025, and is now trading 26 bps below its 3-month average.
  • MELI 1Q25: Impressive Growth, Little Room for Further Spread Compression / YPF 1Q25: Margin Expansion and Strategic Progress Back Outperformance View
  • Suzano 1Q25: Credit Metrics Improve Despite EBITDA Miss, Remain Outperform / Minerva 1Q25: Integration and Deleveraging Underpin Outperformance View

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May 19
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Eisai Co Ltd, Mirxes Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Leqembi at a Growth Juncture as New Markets Open Up; Margins Under Pressure
  • Pre-IPO Mirxes Holding (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP): Leqembi at a Growth Juncture as New Markets Open Up; Margins Under Pressure

By Tina Banerjee

  • In FY25, Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) reported 6% YoY growth in revenue, driven by 3Ls. Operating profit rose 2% YoY and net profit climbed 9% YoY to ¥46B.
  • Eisai guided for FY26 revenue of ¥790B, flat YoY. Revenue for Leqembi is expected to grow significantly (¥76.5B, up 73% YoY). Operating profit is expected to remain flat at ¥54.5B.
  • Leqembi’s potential market expansion holds promise, especially in the developed economies with the proportion of aged population gradually on the rise and with a dearth of suitable treatment options available.

Pre-IPO Mirxes Holding (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • GASTROClear’s clinical application may be limited by doctors’ lack of sufficient trust/recognition. GASTROClear could mainly be commercialized in the non-clinical market in China first. However, the competition is more intense.
  • The dual pressure of lack of medical insurance reimbursement and higher pricing may lead to lower-than-expected market penetration.It’s not easy for Mirxes’ revenue to return to the level of 2021.
  • Short-Term valuation depends on market sentiment, but in long term, it still depends on the commercialization performance and the improvement of cash flow. The IPO pricing is expensive.

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May 19
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Cosco Shipping Development, Belrise Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.
  • Belrise Industries IPO: Strategic OEM Partner, Deleveraging Move Faces Structural Headwinds

A/H Premium Tracker (To 16 May 2025):  AH Premia Contract Small Again. BYD and CMB Go Negative.

By Travis Lundy

  • AH spreads are slightly narrower, but performance is concentrated in fewer names and broad spread volatility is up. BYD (1211 HK) AH is negative now, maybe on HSTECH inclusion expectations.
  • I didn’t expect much out of Geneva last weekend. I was wrong in that there was a big announcement, but maybe not wrong because content was pretty slim.
  • The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.

Belrise Industries IPO: Strategic OEM Partner, Deleveraging Move Faces Structural Headwinds

By Rahul Jain

  • Belrise Industries, founded by the Badve family, is a leading auto component maker launching its Rs2,150 crore IPO from May 21–23, 2025, at a price band of Rs85–90.
  • It supplies key chassis and metal parts to top OEMs like Bajaj Auto, Hero MotoCorp, and HMSI, playing a critical role across ICE and EV platforms.
  • While most proceeds are earmarked for debt repayment, high working capital needs suggest leverage could rebuild as the business scales.

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