Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Toyota Industries (6201 JP) shares were set to hit the daily upper limit of JPY16,225 due to press reports of a privatisation bid valuing it at JPY6 trillion.
Toyota Industries confirmed receiving a going-private proposal from a special purpose company, while Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said it is considering all possibilities, including a partial investment.
There are still several unknowns, including the price, the identity of the offeror, potential irrevocable commitments, the financing structure, and the timeline.

Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): Novomatic’s Polarising Scheme Offer

Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU) entered into a scheme implementation deed with Novomatic, its controlling shareholder, at A$1.00 per share, a 35.1% premium to the unaffected price.
The final offer is unattractive. Kanen Wealth Management opposes the offer. The lack of irrevocables from Spheria and Allan Gray adds to the vote risk.
Cognizant of the scheme vote risk, Novomatic has the option to switch to an alternative takeover offer, which has a 75% minimum acceptance condition, thereby limiting the downside risk.

Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family Reloads At S$0.895/Share

By David Blennerhassett

Amara Holdings (AMA SP), a property/hotel play, has announced a best-and-final conditional S$0.895/share cash Offer, a 27% to undisturbed and a lifetime high, from the controlling Teo family.
If Amara sounds familiar, in November 2023, the family launched a best-and-final unconditional cash Offer at S$0.60/share as discussed in Amara (AMA SP): Teo Family’s Lifetime High Offer.
This new Offer has a 90% acceptance condition. Irrevocables tally 90.58%. Done and done.

Toyota (7203 JP) Tactical Outlook Following Toyota Industries (6201 JP) Privatization Rumors

By Nico Rosti

Toyota Motor (7203 JP) said in a Tokyo stock exchange filing on Saturday that it is exploring the possibility of investing in a potential buyout of key supplier Toyota Industries.
Bloomberg reported Friday that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Chairman Akio Toyoda and his family proposed acquiring Toyota Industries (6201 JP) in a possible 6 trillion yen ($42 billion) transaction.
The stocks of both companies were rising on Monday, this insight focus on tactical positioning on Toyota Motor:the stock appears very OVERBOUGHT according to our models.

IPO Lock-In Expiry: These 6 Companies Need Closer Look!

By Nimish Maheshwari

India is set to witness INR 4.02 trillion worth of Pre-IPO shares becoming tradeable by June 2025, lead to huge selling pressure among various IPO stocks.
We identified 6 Companies where lock-in is about to expire and analyzed their current status in terms of their business and industry environment.
Some fundamentally good companies also provide opportunities at a good price due to a fall because of selling pressure in these companies after lock-in expiry.

Geely (175 HK): To Be Only Comparable Competitor to BYD in 1Q25

By Ming Lu

Geely’s deliveries reached 46% of BYD in 1Q25, while the number was 23% in 2024.
The delivery growth rate accelerated since December 2024 and reached 54% YoY in March 2025.
We believe, even without production capacity expansion, BEV deliveries can grow significantly YoY in 2Q25 and 3Q25.

Amara Holdings (AMA SP): Conditional VGO at S$0.895

Amara Holdings (AMA SP) has disclosed a voluntary conditional offer from a three-member consortium at S$0.895 per share, a 27.0% premium to the last close price.
Irrevocables, including from the 2023 VGO offeror, represent 90.58% of the outstanding shares, ensuring that the 90% minimum acceptance condition will be satisfied and the offer will be declared unconditional.
The offer price is final. The offer is attractive and represents an all-time high, and is 49.2% above the 2023 VGO price.

Ather Energy IPO | Showroom and Service Center Visits

By Pranav Bhavsar

Ather Energy (1207922D IN) IPO opened today (April 28, 2025) with a price band of Rs 304-321 per share, and will remain open until April 30, 2025.
This insight focuses on our takeaways from visiting various Ather Showroom and Service Centers across the Country.
The product quality, service feedback and product positioning is relatively better than competition. The product is good, business probably not.

Ather Energy IPO- Pioneer, But Falling Behind

By Nitin Mangal

Ather Energy (1207922D IN) kickstarts its INR 29.8 bn worth IPO this week, comprising of fresh issue worth INR 26.3 bn and 11.1 mn OFS valued at INR 3.5 bn.
Ather, a pioneer, was the first entity to launch a smart scooter back in 2018. The company currently is 4th largest EV player with a market share of 10.7%.
Although it shows strong R&D profile and a positive warranty trend, Ather continues its heavy cash burn and has exorbitant wages, loss of market share, increased discounting, etc.

Lions Gate Studios Spin-off Deep Dive

By Richard Howe

Lionsgate Entertainment (LGFA/LGFB) recently approved the spin-off of Lionsgate Studios (LION). The spin-off should happen within a few weeks.
Lionsgate Studio has carved out a niche as a lean, franchise-focused independent studio that thrives in the mid-budget, IP-driven segment of the entertainment industry.
It punches above its weight by targeting profitable genre films, franchise extensions, and strategic licensing — while avoiding the financial risk of mega-budget blockbusters.

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Apr 28

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 25th): Shanghai Petrochemical and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 25th): Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene
Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): Tenaga Nasional, Mr DIY, Genting, Dialog
KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 25th): Shift Up, Leeno Industrial, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics
Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): Delta Electronics, Krung Thai Bank, Ptt E&P, Kasikornbank
TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 25th): TSMC
TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): Nanya Technology, Pharmaessentia, MSI

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 25th): Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene

We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 87.8% as of Apr 25th.
The average A-H premium changed by -2.7ppt week-on-week, led by health care, financials, energy and offset by communication services.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Shanghai Petrochemical, Datang Intl Power Gen, Beigene, Maanshan Iron & Steel.

Bursa Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): Tenaga Nasional, Mr DIY, Genting, Dialog

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Bursa stocks as of Apr 25th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD0.3bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Tenaga Nasional, Mr DIY, Genting, Dialog, Top Glove.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 25th): Shift Up, Leeno Industrial, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Apr 25th which has an aggregated holding worth USD480.8bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD322mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Shift Up, Leeno Industrial, SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics.

Thailand Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): Delta Electronics, Krung Thai Bank, Ptt E&P, Kasikornbank

We analyzed the changes in short interest of Stock Exchange of Thailand as of Apr 25th. We estimate that they had an aggregated short interest worth USD1.9bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Delta Electronics, Krung Thai Bank, Ptt E&P, Kasikornbank, Scc, Gulf Energy Development.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 25th): TSMC

We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 25th which has an aggregated holding worth USD845.1bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD721mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in TSMC (2330 TT).

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 25th): Nanya Technology, Pharmaessentia, MSI

We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 25th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.5bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Nanya Technology, Pharmaessentia, Micro-Star International.

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Apr 28

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Tech Leads Market as S&P 500 Posts 4.6% Weekly Gain and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

Ohayo Japan | Tech Leads Market as S&P 500 Posts 4.6% Weekly Gain
Japan Morning Connection: Rebound Continues with the SPX Clocking Its Best Run Since January
CHMP Meeting Update April 2025: Sixteen New Medicines Recommended For Approval

Ohayo Japan | Tech Leads Market as S&P 500 Posts 4.6% Weekly Gain

By Mark Chadwick

The S&P 500 closed higher by 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.3% on Friday.
Advantest forecasts net sales of 755 billion yen, down 3%, and operating profit of 242 billion yen, up 6%, for the fiscal year ending March 2026
Toyota Industries is considering going private via a takeover bid by a special purpose company (SPC) backed by Toyota and other group companies

Japan Morning Connection: Rebound Continues with the SPX Clocking Its Best Run Since January

By Andrew Jackson

Tech and AI leading gains but the current rally feels like its running out of steam.
Languid outlook from Advantest will not enthuse Japan SPE names.
Shin Etsu blowing the doors off with a Y500bn buyback.

CHMP Meeting Update April 2025: Sixteen New Medicines Recommended For Approval

By Tina Banerjee

EMA’s human medicines committee (CHMP) recommended sixteen medicines for approval at its April 2025 meeting. CHMP also adopted positive opinion for nine biosimilar medicines.
Among the new medicines, Vertex’s triple combination cystic fibrosis drug Alyftrek, Amgen’s Thyroid eye disease drug Tepezza, and Jazz Pharmaceutical’s billiary tract cancer drug Ziihera have potential to become blockbusters.
The Agency has recommended the refusal of the marketing authorization for Eli Lilly’s Alzheimer’s Disease drug Kisunla. Eli Lilly may ask for a re-examination of the opinion within 15 days.

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Apr 28

Daily Brief ECM: May 1st Marks End of US “De Minimis” Exemption that Has Enabled Growth of SHEIN and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

May 1st Marks End of US “De Minimis” Exemption that Has Enabled Growth of SHEIN, Temu, & AliExpress
ECM Weekly (28 Apr 2025) – Ather, DN Solutions, Lotte, BenQ, Dorf-Ketal, Hi-Think, Kakao, Waaree

May 1st Marks End of US “De Minimis” Exemption that Has Enabled Growth of SHEIN, Temu, & AliExpress

By Daniel Hellberg

Crucial US “de minimis” imports exemption will end this Thursday night, May 1st
Beginning May 2nd, low-value direct-to-US consumer imports subject to duties, reporting
For US consumers, buying from SHEIN et al set to become more expensive, more onerous

ECM Weekly (28 Apr 2025) – Ather, DN Solutions, Lotte, BenQ, Dorf-Ketal, Hi-Think, Kakao, Waaree

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Ather Energy, DN Solutions (298440 KS) and Lotte Global Logistics were live this week, with few other gearing up for launches in Hong Kong.
On the placements front, Kakao Corp (035720 KS) was the only sizable placement over the past week. We did look at a few more IPO linked lockup expiries.

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Apr 28

Daily Brief Macro: Top 80 Companies in Korea by Short Interest and Days to Cover (Potential Short Squeeze Candidates) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

Top 80 Companies in Korea by Short Interest and Days to Cover (Potential Short Squeeze Candidates)
4 Reasons to Be Cautious About the ZBT Buy Signal
An American EM Crisis?
Copper Tracker 28th April 2025: A Huge Positive From The China March Lending Data
Iron Ore Tracker (28-Apr-2025): Iron Ore Within The Band, China Lending Data To The Rescue

Top 80 Companies in Korea by Short Interest and Days to Cover (Potential Short Squeeze Candidates)

By Douglas Kim

In this insight, we discuss potential short squeeze opportunities in the Korean stock market, using short interest and days to cover as main screening tools.
In KOSPI, the top three stocks with highest combination of short interest and days to cover include Doosan Fuel Cell, Posco Future M, and Hotel Shilla.
In this insight, we provided 80 companies (40 companies in KOSPI and KOSDAQ, respectively) that have high combination of short interest and days to cover ratios.

4 Reasons to Be Cautious About the ZBT Buy Signal

By Cam Hui

Last week’s Zweig Breadth Thrust buy signal gave investors reasons to be bullish on stocks, but we beg to differ.
Uncertainty remains high and we struggle to outline a clear intermediate-term bull case for stocks.
Moreover, hard activity-based data is poised to converge toward the soft weak survey-based data in the coming weeks, which has not been fully discounted by the market.

An American EM Crisis?

By Cam Hui

Confidence in the USD and Treasury assets is being eroded.
The U.S. faces stagflation and elevated recession risk in the next 12–18 months.
While investors usually hedge slow growth outcomes by holding USD and Treasuries, they would be better served by holding high-quality non-USD sovereign bonds and gold.

Copper Tracker 28th April 2025: A Huge Positive From The China March Lending Data

By Sameer Taneja

China’s Total Social Financing (TSF) saw a 22% YoY rise, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
COMEX spreads rose above 1200 USD/ton, while Yangshan premiums climbed to 90 USD/ton, reinforcing our positive outlook on copper prices.
Positive Q1 FY25 results from Southern Copper (SCCO US), First Quantum Minerals (FM CN), and Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)‘s positive production update have set the tone for a bullish copper outlook.

Iron Ore Tracker (28-Apr-2025): Iron Ore Within The Band, China Lending Data To The Rescue

By Sameer Taneja

Iron ore prices experienced a modest WoW increase of 0.2%, reflecting easing trade tensions as the US considers reducing some of the stringent tariffs previously imposed.
China’s Total Social Financing (TSF) increased by 22% YoY, reaching 5.89 trillion yuan, surpassing the expected 4.8 trillion yuan and boosting optimism for preemptive stimulus measures.
China’s March steel production rose 5% YoY to 92.8 million tons, underscoring its vital role in the market, contributing 56% to total global production.

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Apr 28

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win) and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)
Merger Arb Mondays (28 Apr) – Seven & I, Shibaura, Makino, Bright Smart, ENN Energy, Tam Jai
Weekly Deals Digest (27 Apr) – Shibaura, Fujitsu General, Gunma/DHFG, Bright Smart, DN Solutions
Ant Group Takes Out Yip’s Controlling Stake In Bright Smart (1428 HK)
Sinarmas Land (SML SP): Potential Outcomes as IFA Says NOT Fair but Reasonable
Deliveroo’s Special of the Day: A DoorDash Takeover
Ather Energy IPO: Expensive and No Immediate Index Inclusion
Novomatic (Finally) Makes A Move On Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU)

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)

On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies.
¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.

Merger Arb Mondays (28 Apr) – Seven & I, Shibaura, Makino, Bright Smart, ENN Energy, Tam Jai

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US).
Lowest spreads: Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Sinarmas Land (SML SP), Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ).

Weekly Deals Digest (27 Apr) – Shibaura, Fujitsu General, Gunma/DHFG, Bright Smart, DN Solutions

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: DN Solutions (298440 KS) seeks to raise US$1.1 billion in a KRX IPO.
Event-Driven developments: Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Fujitsu General (6755 JP), Gunma Bank (8334 JP), Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK), Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK), Dada Nexus (DADA US).

Ant Group Takes Out Yip’s Controlling Stake In Bright Smart (1428 HK)

By David Blennerhassett

When broker Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK) was suspended recently, one possibility was Chairman, Peter Yip Mow-lum, a 50.54% shareholder, cashing out. And that has now unfolded.
Yip has entered into a SPA with fintech giant Ant Group, the operator of Alipay. The agreement has been struck at HK$3.28/share, a 17.6% premium to undisturbed.
Should the SPA complete – the key condition is NDRC approval – an unconditional MGO is triggered, also at HK$3.28. The price is final.

Sinarmas Land (SML SP): Potential Outcomes as IFA Says NOT Fair but Reasonable

Sinarmas Land (SML SP) IFA opined that the Widjaja family’s S$0.31 offer is NOT fair but reasonable, as it is below the valuation range of S$0.350 to S$0.361.
The independent directors have recommended that shareholders accept. Due to a breach of the 10% free float requirement, the shares will be suspended at the close of the offer.
There are four possible outcomes with a medium probability that Sinarmas will follow the Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) and Boustead Projects (BOCJ SP) playbook.

Deliveroo’s Special of the Day: A DoorDash Takeover

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

DoorDash has proposed a cash offer of 180p per share for Deliveroo, representing a 22.7% premium. Deliveroo’s Board is supportive, and the offer values the company at 11.5x EV/NTM EBITDA.
Regulatory risk appears low given limited market overlap between DoorDash and Deliveroo, with a 3–6 month estimated closing timeline; shareholder approval and standard antitrust clearances remain the key conditions.
The deal could trigger a competitive bidding war, particularly from Amazon, a 14% shareholder in Deliveroo, potentially raising valuations towards 13–14x EV/NTM EBITDA and extending the timeline into 2026.

Ather Energy IPO: Expensive and No Immediate Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

Ather Energy is looking to raise INR 30bn (US$349m) in its IPO, valuing the company at INR 120bn (US$1.4bn). The company appears to be expensive compared to peers.
Ather Energy could be added to one global smallcap index in August/November and to another in December/March. Small Cap classification for AMFI and no major local index inclusion.
The continued selloff in Ola Electric will give investors pause, especially given Ather Energy‘s stagnant market share and continued losses. There is supply in Ola Electric with PE/VC investors selling.

Novomatic (Finally) Makes A Move On Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU)

By David Blennerhassett

Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), an Aussie gaming supplier, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Austria’s Novomatic, Ainsworth’s largest shareholder (52.9%). A from Offer has been long rumoured.
Novomatic is offering A$1.008/share (best & final), a 35% premium to last close. The Offer does NOT require FIRB signing off. The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards.
Expect shareholder pushback. The Offer consideration is 64% below what Novomatic paid for its controlling stake in 2016.

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Apr 28

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Intel Q125 Earnings. Outlook Disappoints As LBT Shows Senior Executives The Door and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

Intel Q125 Earnings. Outlook Disappoints As LBT Shows Senior Executives The Door
Singapore Retail Sector: Will It Be Impacted by Improved Connectivity with Malaysia?
Keyence (6861 JP): A Beneficiary of Rising Interest Rates
Bright Smart (1428 HK): To Sell or Not to Sell?
GPIL: Mining to Recycling
China New Higher Education (2001 HK): Stays Cheap at 1.7x PER and 0.3x P/B
Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) 25Q1 Results – Concerns Behind and the Valuation Outlook
Japan Pure Chemical (4973 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
Kokuyo Co Ltd (7984 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update

Intel Q125 Earnings. Outlook Disappoints As LBT Shows Senior Executives The Door

By William Keating

Intel reported Q125 revenues of $12.7 billion, down 0.4% YoY, down 11% QoQ but still $500 million above the guided midpoint, precisely the same beat as in the prior quarter.
Looking ahead, Intel forecasted current quarter revenues of $11.8 billion at the midpoint, this time extending the range from $1 billion in the prior quarter to $1.2 billion
LBT is in the process of undertaking sweeping changes to his ELT, flattening its structure, taking on multiple additional reports and showing many senior executives the door. That’s good.

Singapore Retail Sector: Will It Be Impacted by Improved Connectivity with Malaysia?

By Devi Subhakesan

The upcoming Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System and the ease of cross-border movements could impact Singapore’s retail sector as more consumers may choose to spend across the border.
DFI Retail CEO cited this as rationale for exiting Singapore based grocery retail business under Cold Storage and Giant’s brands. Sheng Siong group said it will carefully monitor this development.
Singapore retail prices for branded consumer discretionary and staples are between 30%-50% higher than in Malaysia. With greater ease of commute and shipping, this price differential may not be sustainable.

Keyence (6861 JP): A Beneficiary of Rising Interest Rates

By Scott Foster

Keyence stands to benefit from a rising return on its large holdings of cash and securities, which are also available for investment and higher dividends.
The company’s engineering-service business model should keep gross and operating margins high while it continues to expand overseas.
Projected valuations at the low end of their 5-year ranges. Recession and abrupt appreciation of the yen are the primary risks.

Bright Smart (1428 HK): To Sell or Not to Sell?

By Osbert Tang, CFA

The offer price of HK$3.28 by Ant Financial is attractive – 2.9x P/B and 8.3x PER, both on 12-month forward basis. It is also appealing relative to peers.
Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK)‘s massive outperformance against the HSI showed its strong marketing and execution capabilities. Ant Financial will bring many synergies to it.
Risk-Averse investors may take this opportunity to cash out, but we are on the long-term bull camp and prefer to hold for further upside.

GPIL: Mining to Recycling

By Rahul Jain

GPIL operates integrated iron ore mining, pellet, and steel facilities with captive power assets in Chhattisgarh.
Acquired 51% stake in Jammu Pigments to enter non-ferrous recycling.
Focused on mining and pellet capacity expansion, with selective growth in recycling and smaller steel projects.

China New Higher Education (2001 HK): Stays Cheap at 1.7x PER and 0.3x P/B

By Osbert Tang, CFA

China New Higher Education (2001 HK)‘s gearing (including contract liabilities) has come down to 61.2% in 1H25, from 69.9% in FY24 and 84.1% in FY23 – an encouraging trend.
Net profit grew 8.6%, even faster than the full-year consensus forecast of 3.5% growth. There are multiple drivers that support its medium-term outlook.
CNHE trades on 1.7x PER and 0.3x P/B, but the FY25 ROE is a solid 16.6%. Should the payout ratio remain unchanged, its yield will reach 28.4%.

Ping An Healthcare and Technology (1833 HK) 25Q1 Results – Concerns Behind and the Valuation Outlook

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

PAGD achieved a dual increase in revenue and profit in 25Q1, which was mainly driven by the revenue from F-end business and B-end corporate health management business (up 43% YoY).
We always question PAGD’s capability of expanding new customers and business externally, apart from relying on the resource support of Ping A Group.This makes PAGD difficult to match high valuations.
Our forecast for 2025 revenue is RMB5.1 billion.If based on P/S of 3x, market value is RMB15.3 billion. Market value of RMB24 billion could be the peak of PAGD’s valuation

Japan Pure Chemical (4973 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Revenue in FY03/25 grew 10.4% YoY, with operating profit increasing 41.8% YoY, driven by generative AI demand.
Net income surged 188.1% YoY due to gains on the sale of shares, despite slowing automotive sales.
JPC anticipates steady demand for AI-related applications and expects revenue growth in FY03/26 despite higher expenses.

Kokuyo Co Ltd (7984 JP): Q1 FY12/25 flash update

By Shared Research

Revenue increased by 3.5% YoY to JPY99.5bn, driven by demand in the Furniture business for office relocations.
Operating profit rose by 14.4% YoY to JPY13.5bn, with a 1.6pp increase in GPM due to price revisions.
Net income attributable to owners of the parent decreased by 16.4% YoY, despite increases in operating and recurring profits.

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Apr 28

Most Read: Toyota Industries, JX Advanced Metals, Shin Etsu Chemical, Bright Smart Securities And, Alibaba Group Holding , Sigma Healthcare, Laopu Gold, Seven & I Holdings, Fujitsu General and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)
The End-April TOPIX Rebalance – US$2.1bn a Side
Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – OK Earnings, OK Forecast, But Ground-Breaking Buyback
Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): Ant’s Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$3.28
Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading
Alibaba (9988 HK): Volatility Surface Favoring Diagonal and Calendar Spreads
Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Next Round of Passive Buying Around the Corner
Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation
Merger Arb Mondays (28 Apr) – Seven & I, Shibaura, Makino, Bright Smart, ENN Energy, Tam Jai
Fujitsu General (6755 JP): Done Deal as Precondition Satisfied

Toyota Industries (6201) – SURPRISE! It’s a TOYODA Takeover Proposal (Good Governance May Not Win)

On Friday after the close, media reports surfaced that Toyota Motor (7203 JP) Group chairman and founding family member had put forth a take-private proposal to Toyota Industries (6201 JP).
The number quoted was ¥6trln market cap (most) or EV (FT), financed by personal funds, 3 megabanks, and reportedly some group companies.
¥6trln market cap would be +50%. ¥6trln EV +16%. Simultaneously shocking but somehow not surprising. Opportunistic, and surprisingly elegant as a family/group/cultural solution. More below.

The End-April TOPIX Rebalance – US$2.1bn a Side

This year there are 10 Free Float Weight Changes for April. There are 20 Liquidity Factor Changes, 2 Inclusions, and 3 M&A-related downweights. There are 90+ Share Count Change Downweights.
This is a bigger Big April Basket than normally comes around. And there are some big flows. All trades are 28 April at the close.
Total flow is ~US$2.1bn a side. 64 trades of >2 days of ADV, and of those, 27 with >US$10mm to trade (7 of US$50mm+). Top 20 in USD average 5dADV.

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – OK Earnings, OK Forecast, But Ground-Breaking Buyback

Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) reported FY earnings to beat January guidance for all four major measures, just slightly. They only guide 1 quarter out, and Q1 is up year-on-year…
…in revenues, but down in OP and NP. Note: OP and NP guidance is nearly identical to what they guided for Q1 last year on ¥585bn revenues (vs ¥610bn now)
The BIG news here is a Very Large Buyback. The company has long has huge piles of cash. This buyback (~90% of annual profit) starts to make use of it.

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): Ant’s Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$3.28

Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK)‘s Chairman entered a SPA with Ant Holdco to sell his 50.55% stake at HK$3.28, a 7.5% premium to the last close.
The SPA completion requires approval from both the NDRC and SFC. Unusually, Ant has the option of extending the long-stop date, reflecting a possibility of extra scrutiny by the regulators.
Under Rule 26.1 of the Code, upon completion, Ant will be required to make an unconditional mandatory cash offer at HK$3.28. The MGO price is final and a knockout offer.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Top Trades and Strategic Insights from HKEX Options Trading

By Gaudenz Schneider

Over the past five trading days, Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
Diagonal Spreads account for nearly 30% of all strategies. Many of these strategies sell short term risk to finance longer term protection.
Several structures hedge against low probability tail events. One such strategy traded 100 contracts.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Volatility Surface Favoring Diagonal and Calendar Spreads

By Gaudenz Schneider

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) one-month implied volatility has decreased from recent peaks but remains above the 70th percentile, while realized volatility exceeds 80% (96th percentile).
A relatively flat term structure and skew render Calendar and Diagonal Spreads interesting strategies.
Open interest extends to March 2026, with balanced call and put interest across all expiries.

Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU): Next Round of Passive Buying Around the Corner

By Brian Freitas

There was big passive buying in Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) in March from S&P/ASX trackers following the completion of the merger with Chemist Warehouse Group.
Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) should be added to a global index in May and those passive trackers will have a lot of stock to buy.
While there will be positioning in the stock, it appears lighter than the estimated passive buying. Shorts are being covered and that could provide a boost.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Global Index Inclusion Likely Derailed by Full Circulation

By Brian Freitas

Laopu Gold (6181 HK) was on track to be added to a global index given its large H-share market cap and a free float that was close to 20%.
Completion of the full circulation in April pushed H-share market cap higher while free float market cap remained the same. Crucially, free float dropped below 15%.
Laopu Gold (6181 HK) could miss index inclusion in May, while inclusion in August will need some selling from non-float investors following lock-up expiry in June.

Merger Arb Mondays (28 Apr) – Seven & I, Shibaura, Makino, Bright Smart, ENN Energy, Tam Jai

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Oneconnect Financial Technology (6638 HK), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US).
Lowest spreads: Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Sinarmas Land (SML SP), Millennium & Copthorne Hotels Nz (MCK NZ).

Fujitsu General (6755 JP): Done Deal as Precondition Satisfied

The precondition for Paloma Rheem Holdings’ tender offer for Fujitsu General (6755 JP) is satisfied. The offer is from 28 April to 28 May.
Despite an arguably light offer and less than ideal process, this is a done deal due to a lack of opposition and no competing offer.
At the last close and for a 5 June payment, the gross and annualised spreads are 1.3% and 14.1%, respectively.

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Apr 28

Daily Brief Singapore: Sheng Siong, Sinarmas Land and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

Singapore Retail Sector: Will It Be Impacted by Improved Connectivity with Malaysia?
Sinarmas Land (SML SP): Potential Outcomes as IFA Says NOT Fair but Reasonable

Singapore Retail Sector: Will It Be Impacted by Improved Connectivity with Malaysia?

By Devi Subhakesan

The upcoming Johor Bahru-Singapore Rapid Transit System and the ease of cross-border movements could impact Singapore’s retail sector as more consumers may choose to spend across the border.
DFI Retail CEO cited this as rationale for exiting Singapore based grocery retail business under Cold Storage and Giant’s brands. Sheng Siong group said it will carefully monitor this development.
Singapore retail prices for branded consumer discretionary and staples are between 30%-50% higher than in Malaysia. With greater ease of commute and shipping, this price differential may not be sustainable.

Sinarmas Land (SML SP): Potential Outcomes as IFA Says NOT Fair but Reasonable