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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 27
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Shin Etsu Chemical, Ramkrishna Forgings , Evolution Mining, Steel Dynamics, Alcoa , Hindustan Zinc, Range Resources, Halliburton Co, Baker Hughes, Eqt Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – OK Earnings, OK Forecast, But Ground-Breaking Buyback
  • Ramkrishna Forgings: Inventory Discrepancies Raise Concern Over Governance
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun25: LONGs up +14% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Some Changes to Expectations
  • Steel Dynamics: An Insight Into Its Shareholder Value & Strategic Capital Allocation!
  • Alcoa’s Strategic Pivot Under Fire: Will Its Bold Moves Be Enough to Weather the Tariff Storm?
  • HZ IN: Operational Targets and Valuation Framework
  • Range Resources: An Insight Into Its In-Basin Demand, Market Dynamics & Critical Growth Levers!
  • Halliburton’s Zeus Frac Fleet: The Silent Move That Could Power Their Growth The Energy Services Market!
  • Baker Hughes: Supply Chain Strategy & Tariff Mitigation to Safeguard Earnings Potential & Maintain Steady Operations!
  • EQT Corporation: Can Its Olympus Midstream & Strategic Integration Enhance Overall Market Competitiveness?

Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063) – OK Earnings, OK Forecast, But Ground-Breaking Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) reported FY earnings to beat January guidance for all four major measures, just slightly. They only guide 1 quarter out, and Q1 is up year-on-year… 
  • …in revenues, but down in OP and NP. Note: OP and NP guidance is nearly identical to what they guided for Q1 last year on ¥585bn revenues (vs ¥610bn now)
  • The BIG news here is a Very Large Buyback. The company has long has huge piles of cash. This buyback (~90% of annual profit) starts to make use of it.

Ramkrishna Forgings: Inventory Discrepancies Raise Concern Over Governance

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Ramkrishna Forgings (RK Forgings) recently reported discrepancies in its inventory during the annual physical verification for FY 2024. 
  • The company has engaged independent external agencies to conduct a joint fact-finding study, aiming to maintain transparency and accountability. 
  • Estimates suggest an adverse impact of 4-5% on the company’s net worth. While the impact on overall inventory is almost 10% of the total inventory, amounting to INR 120 crore

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Jun25: LONGs up +14% Vs SHORTs in a Month; Some Changes to Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the June 2025 index rebal event.
  • We expect one change for ASX 20, one change for ASX 50, two changes for ASX 100, and one change for ASX 200. One month left in the reference period.
  • Our long basket is up 14% vs shorts in a month. Index Rebal is coming back. ASX Index final index changes will be announced publicly on 6th June 2025.

Steel Dynamics: An Insight Into Its Shareholder Value & Strategic Capital Allocation!

By Baptista Research

  • Steel Dynamics, Inc. delivered a solid performance in the first quarter of 2025, demonstrating the company’s operational and financial stability amidst a challenging market environment.
  • The company reported a net income of $217 million or $1.44 per diluted share, supported by adjusted EBITDA of $448 million.
  • Total revenue rose to $4.4 billion, showing a 13% increase from the previous quarter, largely due to record steel shipments.

Alcoa’s Strategic Pivot Under Fire: Will Its Bold Moves Be Enough to Weather the Tariff Storm?

By Baptista Research

  • Alcoa Corporation reported a strong first quarter for 2025, highlighted by improved safety performance and stable production across most operations.
  • The company maintained a commitment to operational excellence, focusing on safety, stability, and continuous improvement amid positive market conditions.
  • A key development was the improvement at the Alumar smelter in Brazil, which is now operating at 91% capacity.

HZ IN: Operational Targets and Valuation Framework

By Rahul Jain

  • Hindustan Zinc’s Q4 FY25 PAT rose 47% YoY to Rs3,003 crore; EBITDA grew 32% YoY; zinc cost of production hit a 16-quarter low at $994/t.
  • FY26 guidance targets 1.12 Mt mined metal, 700–710 MT silver, and zinc cost of production between $1,025–1,050/t, slightly higher due to ore grade normalization.
  • HZL trades at ~21.5x P/E and ~12x EV/EBITDA, at a premium to some global peers, with valuations sensitive to commodity prices, cost trends, and execution on expansion plans.

Range Resources: An Insight Into Its In-Basin Demand, Market Dynamics & Critical Growth Levers!

By Baptista Research

  • Range Resources Corporation reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2025, emphasizing its disciplined operational approach and efficiency gains.
  • The company achieved robust free cash flow while maintaining a low level of capital intensity, which it leveraged to increase shareholder returns and reduce debt.
  • This aligns with Range Resources’ longstanding strategic focus on maintaining a stable base of production and expanding its drilled uncompleted (DUC) inventory, ensuring flexibility for future growth.

Halliburton’s Zeus Frac Fleet: The Silent Move That Could Power Their Growth The Energy Services Market!

By Baptista Research

  • Halliburton Company’s first-quarter 2025 financial performance presented a picture of mixed results, amid dynamic and shifting market conditions, impacting its regional operations, revenues, and strategic outlook.
  • The company reported total revenue of $5.4 billion and an adjusted operating margin of 14.5%.
  • A significant highlight from this quarter emanated from international markets, where revenue dipped to $3.2 billion, largely impacted by a 19% decline in Mexico.

Baker Hughes: Supply Chain Strategy & Tariff Mitigation to Safeguard Earnings Potential & Maintain Steady Operations!

By Baptista Research

  • Baker Hughes Company delivered strong results in the first quarter of 2025, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $1.04 billion, marking a 10% year-over-year increase.
  • The performance was driven primarily by the Industrial & Energy Technology (IET) segment, which experienced significant growth and contributed to the company’s overall margin expansion.
  • Revenues for the quarter hit a record, supported by effective operational execution and strategic transformations, despite a challenging macroeconomic backdrop marked by geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainties, and fluctuating oil prices.

EQT Corporation: Can Its Olympus Midstream & Strategic Integration Enhance Overall Market Competitiveness?

By Baptista Research

  • EQT Corporation delivered strong results in the first quarter of 2025, emphasizing its strategic approach to maximizing value amid price volatility.
  • The company reported robust production at the high end of its guidance, aided by effective well performance and minimal winter disruptions.
  • Tactics like increasing production during highdemand winter periods allowed EQT to benefit from favorable Appalachian pricing, significantly boosting its core differential.

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Apr 27
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Renesas Electronics, Tencent, Sage Group, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Auto Trader, Verizon Communications, Etoro Group, Pegasystems Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Renesas 1Q25: Cheap Stock That’s Bottoming Out
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 Apr 2025); First Net Sell in Ages, Led by Heavy SOE Selling
  • Sage Group Plc: Initiation of Coverage- Network Services and Automation Expansion Can Fuel A Revenue Surge Across Regions!
  • Inside TSMC’s Explosive Growth: AI Demand Soars, Tariffs Loom, and a $165 Billion U.S. Gamble!
  • Auto Trader Group: Initiation of Coverage- 6 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!
  • Verizon Communications: Expanding Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) Solutions To Change The Game!
  • EToro IPO Preview: High Crypto Exposure, CopyTrader Technology Is Not “Deep Tech”
  • Pegasystems Incorporated: Is The Pega Cloud ACV Growth Here To Stay?

Renesas 1Q25: Cheap Stock That’s Bottoming Out

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Revenues are still declining by ~teens% YoY but margins shows signs of improvements as end-demand improves and utilization is low. 
  • Renesas doesn’t have an inventory problem and increasing revenues will lead to higher utilization and higher margins. 
  • As Renesas is showing signs of a bottom, the stock is very cheap, trading at -2 standard deviations or 11x 2025 EPS, 9x 2026 EPS.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 Apr 2025); First Net Sell in Ages, Led by Heavy SOE Selling

By Travis Lundy

  • Q1 saw record quarterly inflows by SOUTHBOUND investors at HK$435bn, beating the previous record of Q1 2021 by more than HK$100bn. The first three weeks in April were HK$168bn.
  • The fourth week (this past week) saw net outflows on low volume as SOUTHBOUND investors sold SOEs quite heavily. 
  • 9 of the top 10 Net Sells as % of Volume this past week had China, Beijing, or Shanghai as the first word in their name.

Sage Group Plc: Initiation of Coverage- Network Services and Automation Expansion Can Fuel A Revenue Surge Across Regions!

By Baptista Research

  • Sage Group PLC recently reported a successful year, demonstrating notable growth and a solid financial performance.
  • The company’s annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased for the third consecutive year, with a 11% rise to GBP 2.3 billion.
  • This growth was balanced between new and existing customers, reflecting effective customer retention strategies and upsell accomplishments.

Inside TSMC’s Explosive Growth: AI Demand Soars, Tariffs Loom, and a $165 Billion U.S. Gamble!

By Baptista Research

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) posted a strong set of first-quarter 2025 results, reinforcing its leadership position despite an increasingly complex global backdrop.
  • The company reported a 60% surge in profit to NT$361.56 billion ($11.12 billion), comfortably beating analyst forecasts.
  • Revenue rose 42% year-over-year to NT$839.25 billion ($25.53 billion), although it marked a sequential decline of 5.1% in U.S. dollar terms due to seasonal softness in smartphone demand.

Auto Trader Group: Initiation of Coverage- 6 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!

By Baptista Research

  • Auto Trader Group reported its half-year results for the period ending September 30, 2024, demonstrating a mix of robust performance indicators and notable challenges.
  • During this period, the company attained record levels of platform engagement, significantly surpassing nearest competitors in consumer involvement.
  • Moreover, Auto Trader made a promising start in monetising its Deal Builder product, although hurdles in translating market engagement into higher stock levels impacted overall revenue performance.

Verizon Communications: Expanding Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) Solutions To Change The Game!

By Baptista Research

  • Verizon Communications Inc. presented its first-quarter results for 2025, indicating a strong start to the year with robust financial performance.
  • The company recorded a 2.7% increase in wireless service revenue, meeting the high end of its guidance range, and reported an all-time high adjusted EBITDA of $12.6 billion, marking a 4% growth.
  • Free cash flow improved by over $900 million, which supports its capital allocation priorities, including debt reduction and dividend growth, setting a positive tone as Verizon navigates a complex economic environment.

EToro IPO Preview: High Crypto Exposure, CopyTrader Technology Is Not “Deep Tech”

By Andrei Zakharov

  • EToro Group Ltd., a social investment network and trading-app provider, plans to raise up to $400M in upcoming US IPO.
  • Israeli social trading platform was valued at ~$10B during a planned merger with a publicly-listed SPAC in 2022. However, the SPAC deal collapsed.  
  • EToro launched copy trading services in 2010 and made a big bet on crypto segment. Revenue from cryptoassets accounted for ~96% of total revenue and income in 2024.

Pegasystems Incorporated: Is The Pega Cloud ACV Growth Here To Stay?

By Baptista Research

  • Pegasystems Inc. delivered a strong performance in the first quarter of 2025, highlighted by significant growth in annual contract value (ACV) and impressive cash flow results.
  • ACV increased by $74 million, marking over 13% year-over-year growth.
  • This was largely driven by robust adoption of the Pega GenAI Blueprint, which has revolutionized how the company engages with clients and partners by allowing rapid demonstration of Pega’s platform capabilities.

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Apr 27
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Makino Milling Machine Co, Csx Corp, Danaher Corp, General Electric , Intertek, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon Technologies , Snap On Inc, United Airlines Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mayne Pharma, Piedmont/Sayona, Jamco, Makino Milling, Sinarmas, Dada Nexus
  • CSX Corporation: An Insight Into Intermodal Market Dynamics & The Biggest Forces Driving Them Forward!
  • Danaher Corporation: Navigating Market Volatility to Protect Its Market Position!
  • GE Aerospace: Building Aircraft Engine Efficiency, Technological Advancements & Other Major Drivers!
  • Intertek Group PLC: Initiation of Coverage- Strategic Innovation & Market Access Expansion Can Help Maintain Its Solid Market Position!
  • Lockheed Martin: 7 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!
  • Northrop Grumman: B-21 Raider Production Advancements Driving Our ‘Outperform’ Rating!
  • RTX Technologies’ Backlog Boom vs. Tariff Trouble: What Lies Ahead For The Defense Major?
  • Snap-on Inc.: Will Its Software & Artificial Intelligence Integration Help Alter The Playing Field?
  • United Airlines Is Focused On Mastering Aircraft Supply Chain To Stay Ahead … But Is It Working?

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mayne Pharma, Piedmont/Sayona, Jamco, Makino Milling, Sinarmas, Dada Nexus

By David Blennerhassett

CSX Corporation: An Insight Into Intermodal Market Dynamics & The Biggest Forces Driving Them Forward!

By Baptista Research

  • CSX Corporation’s latest earnings provided a comprehensive view of the challenges and opportunities facing the company in the first quarter of 2025.
  • CSX’s total revenue for the quarter stood at $3.4 billion, a 7% decline from the previous year.
  • This downturn was attributed to several factors, including lower benchmark coal prices and reduced fuel surcharge revenues.

Danaher Corporation: Navigating Market Volatility to Protect Its Market Position!

By Baptista Research

  • Danaher Corporation reported its first quarter of 2025 financial results, surpassing expectations in revenue, earnings, and cash flow.
  • The company benefited from robust performance in bioprocessing and a spike in respiratory demand at its subsidiary, Cepheid.
  • Utilization of the Danaher Business System (DBS) enabled the company to drive innovation, market share gains, and efficiency.

GE Aerospace: Building Aircraft Engine Efficiency, Technological Advancements & Other Major Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • General Electric Company (GE) Aerospace’s earnings presentation for the first quarter of 2025 presents a mixed picture of financial performance, strategic advancements, and ongoing challenges.
  • The company delivered a robust financial outcome, with orders up 12% and revenue growing by 11%, primarily driven by strong demand in both services and equipment segments.
  • Profits surged by 38% to $2.1 billion, pushing the margins to 23.8%.

Intertek Group PLC: Initiation of Coverage- Strategic Innovation & Market Access Expansion Can Help Maintain Its Solid Market Position!

By Baptista Research

  • Intertek Group PLC reported a solid financial performance for the fiscal year 2024, slightly surpassing market expectations.
  • The company achieved its fourth consecutive year of mid-single-digit like-for-like revenue growth, with a 6.6% increase at constant exchange rates, supported by both volume and price enhancements.
  • Operating profit rose by 13% at constant currency, coupled with a robust operating margin improvement of 100 basis points to 17.4%.

Lockheed Martin: 7 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!

By Baptista Research

  • Lockheed Martin reported its first quarter results for 2025, showcasing a generally strong performance across several metrics.
  • The company achieved a year-over-year sales increase of 4%, signaling continued growth momentum.
  • Performance was bolstered by operating margins of 11.6% across its business sectors and earnings per share (EPS) growth of 14%, reaching $7.28.

Northrop Grumman: B-21 Raider Production Advancements Driving Our ‘Outperform’ Rating!

By Baptista Research

  • Northrop Grumman’s financial performance and strategic positioning in the military defense sector appear resilient amidst several challenges.
  • The company reported first-quarter sales of $9.5 billion in 2025, reflecting a 7% decrease from the previous year, primarily due to contracting delays and timing of material receipts.
  • This shortfall was compounded by an almost $100 million reduction in expected sales from the B-21 program, attributed to higher manufacturing costs stemming from process changes required to meet accelerated production rates and increased material costs linked to macroeconomic factors.

RTX Technologies’ Backlog Boom vs. Tariff Trouble: What Lies Ahead For The Defense Major?

By Baptista Research

  • Raytheon Technologies Corporation reported a strong first quarter, delivering 8% organic sales growth, 120 basis points of segment margin expansion, and a $900 million improvement in free cash flow compared to the prior year.
  • Commercial aftermarket sales rose 21%, commercial original equipment sales increased 3% despite a tough comparison, and defense sales grew by 4%.
  • Segment profitability was supported by volume increases, cost reduction activities, and a favorable defense sales mix, leading to 18% growth in segment operating profit.

Snap-on Inc.: Will Its Software & Artificial Intelligence Integration Help Alter The Playing Field?

By Baptista Research

  • Snap-on Incorporated’s first quarter of 2025 reflected mixed results influenced by a variety of external factors and internal strategies.
  • The company’s sales totaled $1,141.1 million, indicating a 3.5% decline year-over-year, also impacted by a 2.3% organic sales decrease and $13.9 million in unfavorable foreign currency translation.
  • Despite this, Snap-on demonstrated resilience with a slight improvement in its gross margin, which rose 20 basis points to 50.7%, highlighting the benefits of RCI (Rapid Continuous Improvement) initiatives.

United Airlines Is Focused On Mastering Aircraft Supply Chain To Stay Ahead … But Is It Working?

By Baptista Research

  • United Airlines Holdings presented its first quarter 2025 earnings amid a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by softer demand for air travel.
  • The company managed to demonstrate resilience by achieving a pre-tax margin that was the highest since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • The core themes underpinning United’s current performance include having won over brand-loyal customers, contributing to its solid financial metrics even in tougher economic times.

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Apr 27
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Makino Milling Machine Co, Csx Corp, Danaher Corp, General Electric , Intertek, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon Technologies , Snap On Inc, United Airlines Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mayne Pharma, Piedmont/Sayona, Jamco, Makino Milling, Sinarmas, Dada Nexus
  • CSX Corporation: An Insight Into Intermodal Market Dynamics & The Biggest Forces Driving Them Forward!
  • Danaher Corporation: Navigating Market Volatility to Protect Its Market Position!
  • GE Aerospace: Building Aircraft Engine Efficiency, Technological Advancements & Other Major Drivers!
  • Intertek Group PLC: Initiation of Coverage- Strategic Innovation & Market Access Expansion Can Help Maintain Its Solid Market Position!
  • Lockheed Martin: 7 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!
  • Northrop Grumman: B-21 Raider Production Advancements Driving Our ‘Outperform’ Rating!
  • RTX Technologies’ Backlog Boom vs. Tariff Trouble: What Lies Ahead For The Defense Major?
  • Snap-on Inc.: Will Its Software & Artificial Intelligence Integration Help Alter The Playing Field?
  • United Airlines Is Focused On Mastering Aircraft Supply Chain To Stay Ahead … But Is It Working?

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Mayne Pharma, Piedmont/Sayona, Jamco, Makino Milling, Sinarmas, Dada Nexus

By David Blennerhassett

CSX Corporation: An Insight Into Intermodal Market Dynamics & The Biggest Forces Driving Them Forward!

By Baptista Research

  • CSX Corporation’s latest earnings provided a comprehensive view of the challenges and opportunities facing the company in the first quarter of 2025.
  • CSX’s total revenue for the quarter stood at $3.4 billion, a 7% decline from the previous year.
  • This downturn was attributed to several factors, including lower benchmark coal prices and reduced fuel surcharge revenues.

Danaher Corporation: Navigating Market Volatility to Protect Its Market Position!

By Baptista Research

  • Danaher Corporation reported its first quarter of 2025 financial results, surpassing expectations in revenue, earnings, and cash flow.
  • The company benefited from robust performance in bioprocessing and a spike in respiratory demand at its subsidiary, Cepheid.
  • Utilization of the Danaher Business System (DBS) enabled the company to drive innovation, market share gains, and efficiency.

GE Aerospace: Building Aircraft Engine Efficiency, Technological Advancements & Other Major Drivers!

By Baptista Research

  • General Electric Company (GE) Aerospace’s earnings presentation for the first quarter of 2025 presents a mixed picture of financial performance, strategic advancements, and ongoing challenges.
  • The company delivered a robust financial outcome, with orders up 12% and revenue growing by 11%, primarily driven by strong demand in both services and equipment segments.
  • Profits surged by 38% to $2.1 billion, pushing the margins to 23.8%.

Intertek Group PLC: Initiation of Coverage- Strategic Innovation & Market Access Expansion Can Help Maintain Its Solid Market Position!

By Baptista Research

  • Intertek Group PLC reported a solid financial performance for the fiscal year 2024, slightly surpassing market expectations.
  • The company achieved its fourth consecutive year of mid-single-digit like-for-like revenue growth, with a 6.6% increase at constant exchange rates, supported by both volume and price enhancements.
  • Operating profit rose by 13% at constant currency, coupled with a robust operating margin improvement of 100 basis points to 17.4%.

Lockheed Martin: 7 Major Game-Changers Impacting Its 2025 Performance & Beyond!

By Baptista Research

  • Lockheed Martin reported its first quarter results for 2025, showcasing a generally strong performance across several metrics.
  • The company achieved a year-over-year sales increase of 4%, signaling continued growth momentum.
  • Performance was bolstered by operating margins of 11.6% across its business sectors and earnings per share (EPS) growth of 14%, reaching $7.28.

Northrop Grumman: B-21 Raider Production Advancements Driving Our ‘Outperform’ Rating!

By Baptista Research

  • Northrop Grumman’s financial performance and strategic positioning in the military defense sector appear resilient amidst several challenges.
  • The company reported first-quarter sales of $9.5 billion in 2025, reflecting a 7% decrease from the previous year, primarily due to contracting delays and timing of material receipts.
  • This shortfall was compounded by an almost $100 million reduction in expected sales from the B-21 program, attributed to higher manufacturing costs stemming from process changes required to meet accelerated production rates and increased material costs linked to macroeconomic factors.

RTX Technologies’ Backlog Boom vs. Tariff Trouble: What Lies Ahead For The Defense Major?

By Baptista Research

  • Raytheon Technologies Corporation reported a strong first quarter, delivering 8% organic sales growth, 120 basis points of segment margin expansion, and a $900 million improvement in free cash flow compared to the prior year.
  • Commercial aftermarket sales rose 21%, commercial original equipment sales increased 3% despite a tough comparison, and defense sales grew by 4%.
  • Segment profitability was supported by volume increases, cost reduction activities, and a favorable defense sales mix, leading to 18% growth in segment operating profit.

Snap-on Inc.: Will Its Software & Artificial Intelligence Integration Help Alter The Playing Field?

By Baptista Research

  • Snap-on Incorporated’s first quarter of 2025 reflected mixed results influenced by a variety of external factors and internal strategies.
  • The company’s sales totaled $1,141.1 million, indicating a 3.5% decline year-over-year, also impacted by a 2.3% organic sales decrease and $13.9 million in unfavorable foreign currency translation.
  • Despite this, Snap-on demonstrated resilience with a slight improvement in its gross margin, which rose 20 basis points to 50.7%, highlighting the benefits of RCI (Rapid Continuous Improvement) initiatives.

United Airlines Is Focused On Mastering Aircraft Supply Chain To Stay Ahead … But Is It Working?

By Baptista Research

  • United Airlines Holdings presented its first quarter 2025 earnings amid a challenging macroeconomic environment characterized by softer demand for air travel.
  • The company managed to demonstrate resilience by achieving a pre-tax margin that was the highest since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • The core themes underpinning United’s current performance include having won over brand-loyal customers, contributing to its solid financial metrics even in tougher economic times.

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  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
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Apr 27
0

Daily Brief Consumer: Trip.com, Sumber Alfaria Trijaya Tbk Pt, Guangzhou Automobile Group, Fujitsu General, BYD, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Next PLC, Pearson Plc, Tesla , Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)
  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Good Reason for Optimism
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 Apr 2025):  AH Premia Fall Sharply; “Feels” Risk-On But Noisy Spreads
  • Fujitsu General (6755 JP): Done Deal as Precondition Satisfied
  • BYD (1211 HK): Rev up by 36% in 1Q25, Scale to Bring 60% Upside
  • Expect Gradual Improvement in the Quality of Listed Companies as More Companies Go Private
  • NEXT Plc: Initiation of Coverage- Is the Zalando Alliance The Hidden Catalyst for International Growth?
  • Pearson Plc: Initiation of Coverage- Could U.S. Policy Shifts Be the Secret Catalyst Behind Its Growth Surge?
  • Tesla’s Bold New Move: Affordable Cars, Robotaxis, and a Stock Surge Investors Didn’t Expect!
  • LVMH: Initiation of Coverage- Can Its Latest Brand Revitalization & Portfolio Management Be A Potential Game Changer?

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | March and Q125 Demand Growth Weak Vs Trend (April 2025)

By Daniel Hellberg

  • March demand growth improved vs weak February, but Q125 showed clear slowdown vs trend
  • Relatively strong demand growth for outbound travel is no longer lifting airline load factors
  • Near-Term, we no longer view Chinese travel as attractive, as stocks appear to lack catalysts

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) – Good Reason for Optimism

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Sumber Alfaria Trijaya booked a slower-than-expected finish to FY2024, with some compression to margins, but mainly due to the temporary impact of investment in the business and higher promotions.  
  • The company has seen a strong start to FY2025, with SSSG growing at a faster pace than FY2024, with a strong performance over the run-up to Ramadan.  
  • Alfamart will continues to expand its store network in 2025, with Lawson under AMRT to bring future synergy benefits. Valuations look attractive with a more positive outlook for earnings.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 Apr 2025):  AH Premia Fall Sharply; “Feels” Risk-On But Noisy Spreads

By Travis Lundy

  • AH Premia fall sharply. Spread curve torsion is mild but present, with narrow AH Premia widening, and wide premia narrowing.
  • For a month I thought warning signs were flashing and spreads could widen. That has taken a pause. I am not comfortable it will remain paused or Hs will outperform.
  • The Quiddity Portfolio is pretty hunkered down and nearly flat H/A risk. But benefits from wider spreads coming in, narrow spreads widening, and liquidity dropping. Alpha good again this week.

Fujitsu General (6755 JP): Done Deal as Precondition Satisfied

By Arun George

  • The precondition for Paloma Rheem Holdings’ tender offer for Fujitsu General (6755 JP) is satisfied. The offer is from 28 April to 28 May.
  • Despite an arguably light offer and less than ideal process, this is a done deal due to a lack of opposition and no competing offer. 
  • At the last close and for a 5 June payment, the gross and annualised spreads are 1.3% and 14.1%, respectively.

BYD (1211 HK): Rev up by 36% in 1Q25, Scale to Bring 60% Upside

By Ming Lu

  • In 1Q25, BYD’s revenue increased by 36% YoY and sales volume increased by 60% YoY.
  • We believe BYD’s scale advantage will help cashflow and the competition in the coming market concentration.
  • The P/E band suggests an upside of 59% for the end of 2025.

Expect Gradual Improvement in the Quality of Listed Companies as More Companies Go Private

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Although it’ll take some time for quality of existing listed companies to improve, a gradual improvement in quality of companies is likely for the time being as more companies delist.
  • The TSE’s “request” was not only for activist investors, but also for other investors who shared the view that the stock market should not be left in the doldrums.
  • A certain number of companies that fail to meet TSE listing criteria will move to the regional stock exchanges, leading to a gradual improvement in the quality of the TSE.

NEXT Plc: Initiation of Coverage- Is the Zalando Alliance The Hidden Catalyst for International Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • NEXT, a prominent UK-based retail company, has reported its latest financial results, demonstrating both strengths and challenges in its operations.
  • This summary captures the core aspects of NEXT’s performance, the strategic decisions made, and the roadmap ahead as outlined in their recent earnings call.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Pearson Plc: Initiation of Coverage- Could U.S. Policy Shifts Be the Secret Catalyst Behind Its Growth Surge?

By Baptista Research

  • Pearson PLC’s 2024 performance showcased a blend of strategic advancements and financial resilience.
  • The company reported a robust financial outcome, aligning with market expectations.
  • A key highlight was the sales growth of 3% and a significant profit increase of 10%, resulting in an EBIT margin of 16.9%.

Tesla’s Bold New Move: Affordable Cars, Robotaxis, and a Stock Surge Investors Didn’t Expect!

By Baptista Research

  • Tesla’s first quarter of 2025 earnings revealed a company navigating immediate difficulties while maintaining focus on long-term opportunities.
  • Despite declines in sales, operating income, and profit margins compared to the previous year, Tesla’s stock surged 5.4%, largely because investors had anticipated weak results after a 13% year-over-year drop in deliveries.
  • Critical to the stock’s resilience was the reaffirmation that Tesla’s timeline for launching a lower-priced vehicle remains intact, with production expected to begin in the first half of 2025.

LVMH: Initiation of Coverage- Can Its Latest Brand Revitalization & Portfolio Management Be A Potential Game Changer?

By Baptista Research

  • LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton S.E. reported a year characterized by resilience against a backdrop of global economic challenges.
  • The company saw marginal organic revenue growth, but a decline in operating income, largely influenced by significant non-recurring expenses related to major events such as the sponsorship of the Olympics and the renovation of Notre Dame.
  • These strategic brand visibility investments also mark a considerable outlay impacting current operating margins.

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Apr 27
0

Daily Brief Financials: Bright Smart Securities And, Marsh & Mclennan, Moody’s Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): Ant’s Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$3.28
  • Marsh & McLennan: Why Oliver Wyman Holds The Key To Its Future Growth!
  • Moody’s Corporation: How Is The Management Capitalizing On Private Credit Market Demand To Up Their Game!

Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK): Ant’s Possible Unconditional MGO at HK$3.28

By Arun George

  • Bright Smart Securities And (1428 HK)‘s Chairman entered a SPA with Ant Holdco to sell his 50.55% stake at HK$3.28, a 7.5% premium to the last close.
  • The SPA completion requires approval from both the NDRC and SFC. Unusually, Ant has the option of extending the long-stop date, reflecting a possibility of extra scrutiny by the regulators.
  • Under Rule 26.1 of the Code, upon completion, Ant will be required to make an unconditional mandatory cash offer at HK$3.28. The MGO price is final and a knockout offer.  

Marsh & McLennan: Why Oliver Wyman Holds The Key To Its Future Growth!

By Baptista Research

  • Marsh McLennan had a solid start to 2025, reporting a 9% increase in revenue for the first quarter, driven by a 4% growth in underlying revenue and contributions from acquisitions made in 2024.
  • The company saw growth across all four of its businesses: Marsh, Guy Carpenter, Mercer, and Oliver Wyman.
  • Adjusted operating income rose by 8%, although the adjusted operating margin slightly declined by 20 basis points, reflecting some seasonality at McGriff.

Moody’s Corporation: How Is The Management Capitalizing On Private Credit Market Demand To Up Their Game!

By Baptista Research

  • Moody’s Corporation (Moody’s) reported strong financial performance in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting the resilience of its business model amidst market volatility and economic uncertainties.
  • The company achieved a record revenue of $1.9 billion, which represents an 8% year-over-year increase.
  • Both its Moody’s Investors Service (MIS) and Moody’s Analytics (MA) segments experienced 8% revenue growth.

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Apr 27
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Intuitive Surgical, Quest Diagnostics, Shanghai Henlius Biotech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Intuitive Surgical: Procedure Growth & Market Expansion to Strengthen Its Market Position!
  • Quest Diagnostics: Investment in Technology & Data Management For A Competitive Edge!
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.27)- Flaws Behind BeiGene’s Breakeven, Fosun Increased Stake in Henlius

Intuitive Surgical: Procedure Growth & Market Expansion to Strengthen Its Market Position!

By Baptista Research

  • Intuitive Surgical Inc.’s recent earnings reveal a mixed performance with both strengths and challenges.
  • Positively, the company reported strong operational outcomes in the first quarter of 2025.
  • Da Vinci procedures saw a substantial 17% growth, driven predominantly by robust performances in general surgery across the US and certain international markets, such as India and Korea.

Quest Diagnostics: Investment in Technology & Data Management For A Competitive Edge!

By Baptista Research

  • Quest Diagnostics reported strong results for the first quarter of 2025 with a 12% increase in revenues, primarily driven by acquisitions, organic growth, and increased demand for advanced diagnostics.
  • The company’s strategy, focused on expanding its advanced diagnostics portfolio in key clinical areas and increasing automation and AI usage, appears to be paying dividends, as evidenced by the robust revenue growth in its physician and hospital channels.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.27)- Flaws Behind BeiGene’s Breakeven, Fosun Increased Stake in Henlius

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The rise of innovative drugs in China is actually in line with the interests of large pharmaceutical companies and MNCs. The only ones get “hurt” are small overseas startups/small biotech.
  • BeiGene’s turnaround from losses to profits has entered the countdown.However, investors may not be happy with the net profit margin brought by single revenue driver Brukinsa based on our calculation.
  • Fosun has increased its stake in Henlius by acquiring additional shares at HK$24.6/share, bringing its total ownership to 63.43%.This sends positive signals. A falling stock price is a buying opportunity.

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Apr 26
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 25th): AIA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 25th): AIA, China Hongqiao, Swire Pacific

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 25th): AIA, China Hongqiao, Swire Pacific

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Apr 25th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK), Swire Pacific (19 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), China Hongqiao (1378 HK).

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Apr 26
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Strong on Trade Optimism and Weaker Yen and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Strong on Trade Optimism and Weaker Yen
  • #141 India Insight: Adani Sells 400 MHz to Artl, ITC Signs 14 Hotels, Saudi-Ind to Build Refineries
  • Thematic Report: Opportunity for India; US Anti-Dumping Duty on Solar Imports
  • How Trump’s Tariffs Are Reshaping India’s Shrimp Export Market?
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 25/04/2025

Japan Strategy Weekly | Stocks Strong on Trade Optimism and Weaker Yen

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nikkei 225 surged 2.7% over the week, reclaiming the 35,000 level as easing U.S.-China trade tensions and a softer yen bolstered investor sentiment.
  • Tokyo core CPI jumped to 3.4% in April 2025 (highest in two years), driven by reduced energy subsidies and April food price increases.
  • The weaker yen supported export-dependent sectors, such as machinery, auto parts and tech hardware. For individual stocks, it is all about results and capital policies. 

#141 India Insight: Adani Sells 400 MHz to Artl, ITC Signs 14 Hotels, Saudi-Ind to Build Refineries

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Adani Group has exited the captive telecom space by offloading 400 MHz 5G spectrum to Bharti Airtel; this boosts Airtel’s 5G expansion while signaling Adani’s strategic retreat from telecom.
  • ITC’s Fortune Hotels signed 14 and launched 7 new hotels this year; this rapid expansion strengthens its mid-market hospitality presence and capitalizes on India’s surging domestic travel demand.
  • India and Saudi Arabia have agreed to jointly construct two oil refineries, this deepens energy ties and supports India’s fuel security amid rising consumption.

Thematic Report: Opportunity for India; US Anti-Dumping Duty on Solar Imports

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The imposition of reciprocal anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duties (CVD) on solar imports to the United States, particularly targeting four major Asian exporters-Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam-presents an opportunity for India
  • Though India lacks competitive pricing and optional capacity to meet the demand, 
  • Waaree Energies emerges as a potential winner, considering its facilities in India and the US and a strong order book.

How Trump’s Tariffs Are Reshaping India’s Shrimp Export Market?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The Trump administration imposed a 26% reciprocal tariff on Indian shrimp exports, significantly impacting India’s USD 4 billion shrimp export market, as India supplies 37% of U.S. shrimp imports.
  • Ecuador, benefiting from a lower tariff rate, gains a competitive edge, making its shrimp exports cheaper compared to India, allowing it to capture more market share in the U.S. market.
  • Companies like Avanti Feeds (AVNT IN) , Apex Frozen Foods (APEX IN) and Waterbase Ltd (WB IN) may face headwinds in raw shrimp export whereas tailwinds in prepared shrimp Exports. 

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 25/04/2025

By Auctus Advisors

  • Panoro Energy (PEN NO)C; Target price of NOK49 per share: Reserves addition much larger than expected – YE24 2P reserves were independently estimated at 42.3 mmbbl (+7.6 mmbbl vs YE23, representing a Reserve Replacement Ration of 309%).
  • This figure far exceeds our previous expectation of 34.5 mmbbl for YE24 2P reserves – an estimate that included a 4 mmbbl addition in 1H24 to counterbalance 2024 production.
  • The higher than expected reserves addition is driven by robust reservoir performance in Gabon coupled with the conversion of contingent resources into 2P reserves in EG.

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Apr 26
0

Daily Brief ECM: Deepexi Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Deepexi Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Gold Plus Glass Industry Pre-IPO – Volatile Margins and Rising Debt

Deepexi Technology Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Deepexi Technology (1843779D CH) (DT) is looking to raise atleast US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by CITIC, CMBC, Guotai, Bocom International and SPDB International.
  • The firm specializes in delivering AI solutions to enterprises to integrate their data, decisions and operations efficiently at scale. 
  • DT ranked first among specialized providers of large model AI application solutions in China’s enterprise large model AI application solution market in terms of revenue in 2024, according to F&S.

Gold Plus Glass Industry Pre-IPO – Volatile Margins and Rising Debt

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Gold Plus Glass Industry Ltd (GPGI IN) is planning to raise about US$200m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • Gold Plus Glass Industry Ltd (GPGI) is engaged in the manufacturing of float glass, mirrors, and other value-added types of glass.
  • According to the CRISIL Report, GPGI was India’s second-largest float glass manufacturer, holding a 22% market share as of Sept 2023. 

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