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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs; Still Bearish and Cautious and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs; Still Bearish and Cautious

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs; Still Bearish and Cautious

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. But that all changed in last week’s Compass (4/1/25), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious.
  • A historic selloff has ensued and significant damage has been done as market dynamics have worsened.
  • Until we see some base-building process develop alongside improving market dynamics, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the SPX is below its 200-day MA.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief ECM: Hanwha Aerospace – Lowers Rights Offering Capital Raise Amount To 2.3 Trillion Won and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Hanwha Aerospace – Lowers Rights Offering Capital Raise Amount To 2.3 Trillion Won
  • Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) IPO: Valuation Upside at Risk
  • LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Largest but One of the Slowest
  • Chagee IPO: Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation
  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Tech IPO: Forecasts and Valuation
  • Beijing Yunji Technology Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Park Medi World Pre-IPO Tearsheet

Hanwha Aerospace – Lowers Rights Offering Capital Raise Amount To 2.3 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • On 8 April, Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced that it plans to lower its rights offering capital raise amount from 3.6 trillion won to 2.3 trillion won (US$1.6 billion).
  • The remaining 1.3 trillion won will be secured through a third-party allocation paid-in capital increase targeting three companies, including Hanwha Energy, Hanwha Impact Partners, and Hanwha Energy Singapore. 
  • Hanwha Aerospace disclosed today that it expects sales of 30 trillion won (58% higher than consensus) and operating profit of 3 trillion won (20% higher than consensus) in 2025.

Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) IPO: Valuation Upside at Risk

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Duality, a China-based clinical-stage biotechnology company, launched its IPO to raise up to US$200m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • We look at the deal dynamics and latest developments in the biotech sector.
  • The deal initially presented upside for investors but there’s a portion of its valuation now at risk due to the latest development.

LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Largest but One of the Slowest

By Sumeet Singh

  • LG Electronics (066570 KS) is looking to raise US$1.5bn+ via part-selling its stake in LG Electronics India.
  • LG Electronics India (LGEI) was the market leader in India in major home appliances and consumer electronics (excluding mobile phones) in terms of volume in 1Q25, as per Redseer Report.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous note. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison.

Chagee IPO: Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO.
  • It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss latest industry dynamics, conduct a quick peer comparison and discuss the company’s valuation.

Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Tech IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies (JSZENERGY CH) has announced the terms for its IPO. The company plans to issue 121.5m shares at HK$8.27 per share, raising HK$1.0bn (US$130m).
  • The company’s earnings have seen strong growth during the last 3-4 years driven by its LFP battery products and fall in lithium carbonate prices have helped turn around profitability.
  • However, our analysis on the company’s valuation shows that JZBT’s IPO is expensive and with the ongoing geopolitical tensions, we would remain on the sidelines.

Beijing Yunji Technology Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Beijing Yunji Technology Ltd (1860671D CH)  (BYTL) is planning to raise about US$100m through its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Citic, CBB International.
  • BYTL provides hospitality robotic AI agents, using advanced robotics and AI to enhance customer experiences. Its solutions include physical-interaction robots and AI-driven digitalization systems for streamlined decision-making and operational efficiency.
  • According to the F&S Report, BYTL ranked first globally in 2024 among robotic AI agent companies with multi-layer adaptable robots, leading in concurrent robot operations and total consumers served.

LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • LG Electronics (066570 KS) is looking to raise US$1.5bn+ via part-selling its stake in LG Electronics India.
  • LG Electronics India (LGEI) was the market leader in India in major home appliances and consumer electronics (excluding mobile phones) in terms of volume in 1Q25, as per Redseer Report.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our previous note. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Park Medi World Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Nicholas Tan

  • Park Medi World (1605334D IN)  is looking to raise at least US$147m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Nuvama, CLSA, DAM Capital and Intensive FS.
  • It is the second largest private hospital chain in North India, with an aggregate bed capacity of 3,000 beds.
  • It the largest private hospital chain in terms of bed capacity in Haryana with 1,600 beds located in the state as of 1H25. 

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu Property, Tata Motors, Softbank Group
  • US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that Washington will impose an additional 50% tariff on China effective April 9th, if Beijing does not back down from its 34% retaliatory tariffs.
  • Mr Trump’s post also stated that the US will terminate all talks with China, while commencing negotiations with other countries. Separately, the President told reporters at the White House that he was not looking at a pause on tariffs, but added that “many countries” were seeking negotiations and there would be fair deals in certain cases.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Key Implications of SK Inc’s Disposal of SK Siltron and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Key Implications of SK Inc’s Disposal of SK Siltron
  • Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Ki Corp/Public Storage’s NBIO at A$1.47
  • Potential Sale of a Controlling Stake in SK Siltron to Hahn & Co
  • Industrivärden’s Q1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

Key Implications of SK Inc’s Disposal of SK Siltron

By Sanghyun Park

  • SK Inc is selling SK Siltron to cut its 68% debt-to-equity ratio. The sale could reduce borrowings below ₩5T and lower debt ratio to 30-40%.
  • Chey Tae-won’s divorce lawsuit risks his majority stake in SK Inc. Selling Siltron helps raise ₩1T for alimony without touching his SK Inc shares, potentially reducing the holding company discount.
  • SK Inc-SK Square merger is unlikely soon, despite asset sales and preparation on both sides, as SK Square recently reaffirmed no current merger plans. Setting a position now seems premature.

Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Ki Corp/Public Storage’s NBIO at A$1.47

By Arun George

  • On 7 April, Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from Ki Corporation and Public Storage (PSA US) at A$1.47, a 26.7% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • While below NTA (implying a P/NTA of 0.92x), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. It represents an all-time high. 
  • A binding offer is conditional on due diligence (expected to take six weeks) and Board recommendation. The Board should work to secure a binding offer closer to NTA.   

Potential Sale of a Controlling Stake in SK Siltron to Hahn & Co

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss about SK Inc (034730 KS) which is considering on selling the controlling stake of SK Siltron.
  • If SK is successful in selling 70.6% stake in SK Siltron for about 5 trillion won, it could result in more than 3 trillion won cash inflow for SK Inc. 
  • Our base case valuation of SK Inc is NAV of 13.9 trillion won (NAV per share of 192,217 won), representing a 61% upside from current levels.

Industrivärden’s Q1 2025: NAV Evolution, Discount, Target NAV, Replication

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Industrivärden offers cost-efficient, long-term exposure to Swedish industrial blue chips, with a high-quality balance sheet and 21% upside potential to our NAV-based target price of SEK 380.2.
  • While the portfolio remains concentrated in five core holdings, recent underperformance has opened a value gap; Volvo and Sandvik remain key drivers of upside in a cyclical rebound.
  • The current 5.5% NAV discount is below historical norms, but insider buying and improved fundamentals suggest scope for re-rating as market sentiment stabilizes around Industrivärden’s core assets.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Power Integrations Powers Up with GaN Breakthroughs—Is It Time To BUY Into the Future? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Power Integrations Powers Up with GaN Breakthroughs—Is It Time To BUY Into the Future?
  • NCR Voyix: How Its Gradual Transition to a Recurring Revenue Model Is Panning Out In Terms Of Financial Impact!
  • Frontdoor Just Launched a Game-Changing App—Is This the Future of Home Services?
  • Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC
  • Braze Inc: How Are They Demonstrating Resilience in a Dynamic Competitive Landscape?
  • Lululemon Athletica Faces New Tariff Pressures Through Vietnam
  • Cable One’s Billion-Dollar Bet: Can Tech Upgrades & Customer Gains Help Them Outrun the Competition?
  • GameStop’s Secret Weapon: How Smart Vendor Deals Could Revive Its Fortunes!
  • DoubleVerify Just Partnered With Meta and TikTok—Is This the Ultimate Social Media Power Play?
  • PVH Corporation’s Mixed Bag: Calvin Klein & Tommy Hilfiger Shine But Global Headwinds & China Are A Cause Of Concern!

Power Integrations Powers Up with GaN Breakthroughs—Is It Time To BUY Into the Future?

By Baptista Research

  • Power Integrations, Inc., a company renowned for its high-performance electronic components focused on power conversion, reported its fourth quarter and full-year results, highlighting a mix of challenges and opportunities.
  • The company’s Q4 revenue reached $105 million, marking an 18% increase year-over-year but a sequential decline of 9%.
  • Despite these mixed signals, revenue for 2024 stood at $419 million, reflecting a 6% decrease from the previous year.

NCR Voyix: How Its Gradual Transition to a Recurring Revenue Model Is Panning Out In Terms Of Financial Impact!

By Baptista Research

  • NCR Voyix’s latest earnings offers crucial insights into the company’s strategic position and operational performance over the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • The company reported a decline in revenue, notably from its hardware division, aligning with expectations of a challenging market environment.
  • The total revenue stood at $682 million, with adjusted EBITDA showing a significant increase by 75% to $114 million, aided by cost-cutting measures and a focus on recurring revenue streams.

Frontdoor Just Launched a Game-Changing App—Is This the Future of Home Services?

By Baptista Research

  • Frontdoor’s financial performance in the third quarter of 2024 reflects both achievements and challenges for the company as it navigates a fluctuating market environment.
  • The company reported a 3% increase in revenue to $540 million compared to the same period last year, alongside a notable rise in gross profit margin by 550 basis points to reach 57%.
  • Net income saw a substantial uptick of 40% to $100 million, while Adjusted EBITDA increased by 29% to $165 million.

Is the Valuations Divergence Justified? Mediatek Vs TSMC

By Nicolas Baratte

  • From mid-Feb-25 to yesterday, MTK’s stock has declined -18% versus TSM -25%. Similar enough.  But Mediatek is trading at average forward PEx 16.6x whereas TSMC is cheap at 12.8x. 
  • Consensus forecasts more growth for TSM over 2025-27, a strong 2025 with EPS up 33%. Less growth for MTK, a slow 2025 with EPS up 9%. Why MTK more expensive? 
  • Higher growth but lower PEx, how much risk in TSM earnings? Low valuations could reflect a misunderstanding on the impact of US import tariffs. 

Braze Inc: How Are They Demonstrating Resilience in a Dynamic Competitive Landscape?

By Baptista Research

  • Braze, a customer engagement platform, reported its fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results, showcasing several key developments and financial performance metrics.
  • The company recorded revenue of $160.4 million, marking a 22% year-over-year increase and a 5% growth from the previous quarter.
  • This performance highlights the continued high return on investment (ROI) and enduring value of the Braze Customer Engagement Platform, bolstered by effective global team execution.

Lululemon Athletica Faces New Tariff Pressures Through Vietnam

By Baptista Research

  • Lululemon Athletica Inc. recently reported its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results, marking another year of growth, while also spotlighting both achievements and challenges.
  • The company reported total revenue for the fourth quarter, excluding the 53rd week, increased by 8% year-over-year, or 9% on a constant currency basis.
  • Operating margin expanded by 40 basis points to 28.9%, and earnings per share rose by 16%.

Cable One’s Billion-Dollar Bet: Can Tech Upgrades & Customer Gains Help Them Outrun the Competition?

By Baptista Research

  • Cable One’s recent earnings presented a mixed set of financial results for its fourth quarter and full-year 2024.
  • The company, while navigating competitive pressures and changes in subscriber programs, managed to demonstrate some resilience in strategies aimed at stabilizing its business.
  • On the positive side, Cable One reported growth in its business broadband revenue by 2.6% year-over-year, driven by rising demand across its carrier, enterprise, and wholesale segments.

GameStop’s Secret Weapon: How Smart Vendor Deals Could Revive Its Fortunes!

By Baptista Research

  • GameStop Corporation reported its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results for 2022 with a noticeable shift toward profitability and efficient operations amidst a challenging retail environment.
  • The company’s transformation over the past couple of years has been a story of significant restructuring and strategic shifts aimed at revitalizing its financial health and market positioning.
  • A notable positive from the results is GameStop’s turnaround from a net loss in the fourth quarter of 2021 to a net income of $48.2 million in the same period of 2022.

DoubleVerify Just Partnered With Meta and TikTok—Is This the Ultimate Social Media Power Play?

By Baptista Research

  • DoubleVerify, a company providing digital media measurement solutions, concluded 2024 with several notable achievements and a number of challenges that shape both its financial performance and future outlook.
  • Overall, DoubleVerify delivered substantial growth in revenue, achieving a 15% year-over-year increase to $657 million.
  • This growth was driven by significant momentum across its three main revenue streams.

PVH Corporation’s Mixed Bag: Calvin Klein & Tommy Hilfiger Shine But Global Headwinds & China Are A Cause Of Concern!

By Baptista Research

  • PVH Corp’s recent earnings reflects a mix of achievements and challenges in the fiscal year 2024 and sets cautious expectations for 2025.
  • The company, which owns iconic brands Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, surpassed its initial 2024 guidance both in terms of revenue and non-GAAP EPS.
  • However, it faced a decrease in overall revenue compared to previous years, largely attributed to divestitures and external economic factors.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Macro: UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs
  • Trump, Tariffs, and Trade Wars
  • Europe Vs NATO & Trump – U/W Bonds
  • Bond Market Monitor:                TRUMPolined Recession
  • CX Daily: Trump Tariffs Put Global Trade System in Crisis as Countries Retaliate
  • Paetongtarn’s Parliamentary Win of Little Help to Struggling Economy
  • Macro Bite – India : Why RBI Should Cut Fast and Deep
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April

UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs

By Phil Rush

  • The UK output destroyed by reciprocal US tariffs is only partly due to the direct impact of the new 10% rate (worth ~0.2% of GDP) and generally weaker US prospects (0.1%).
  • Global GDP growth is depressed by this policy, indirectly destroying demand for UK exports from elsewhere (0.2%), especially if countries harm themselves by retaliating.
  • An overall 0.6% GDP hit has two-sided risks and a skew lowered by likely negotiations. Fears of items dumping into the UK market are overblown excuses for protectionism.

Trump, Tariffs, and Trade Wars

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • President Trump’s radical tariff measures will usher in a new era of greater volatility, slower growth, financial stresses and geopolitical downsides.
  • The coming weeks will be marked by uncertainty as the domestic political pushback in the US interacts unpredictably with retaliation by trading partners and the economic fallout. 
  • In Asia, monetary easing can mitigate only part of the impact. Fiscal policy is needed but is constrained in most of the region, given pre-existing debt and deficits. 

Europe Vs NATO & Trump – U/W Bonds

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Bond holders should be concerned  about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest,  and the looming surge in defence spending.   Stay underweight European government bonds.
  • Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do –  Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.
  • Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.

Bond Market Monitor:                TRUMPolined Recession

By Warut Promboon

  • President Trump’s announcement of tariffs stunned the market and warrants our pessimism on the US economy.
  • One of the worst policy blunders in our lifetime should help put the US into a recession this year
  • We recommend a long position in short-rated and variable rate bonds as well as precious metals such as gold.

CX Daily: Trump Tariffs Put Global Trade System in Crisis as Countries Retaliate

By Caixin Global

  • Tariffs / Cover Story: Trump tariffs put global trade system in crisis as countries retaliate and stock markets plummet
  • Legal battle /In Depth: How one acre in Shanghai sparked a 20-year legal battle
  • Stocks /: China markets sink as trade war intensifies

Paetongtarn’s Parliamentary Win of Little Help to Struggling Economy

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • The Thai prime minister comfortably survived a vote of no confidence, suggesting that the marriage of convenience holding her coalition government together is still viable for now
  • The parties in the coalition, however, are still engaged in power struggles, causing political and policy instability as well as impede coherent policy for the rest of the term
  • Distracted as it thus is, the government is not well-placed to address the challenges emanating from a more hostile trade environment and weakening domestic fundamentals

Macro Bite – India : Why RBI Should Cut Fast and Deep

By Priyanka Kishore

  • Downside growth risks dominate following the sweeping tariffs announced by the US, which is India’s largest export partner
  • Negative impact on labour-intensive exports will disproportionately hurt overall GDP growth
  • Growth will be best supported by large and frontloaded rate cuts

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • US Group II base oils export price-discount to CFR India prices widens further through March 2025 even ahead of imposition of US tariffs and slump in crude oil prices.
  • US Group I brightstock export price flips to rare discount to CFR India price in recent weeks.
  • Ongoing weakness of US export prices points to weaker-than-usual domestic demand.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils prices face growing upward pressure versus feedstock/diesel prices following slump in crude oil prices.
  • Firming base oils premium points to tightening supply and rising demand, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.
  • Recent slump in crude oil prices reflects concern about slowdown in global economic activity and subsequent drop in demand.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils prices resume rise versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
  • Rising margins point to still-firm supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q2 2025.
  • That dynamic could change in coming weeks if economic growth slows, compounding typical seasonal dip in demand from end of second quarter.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Australia: Abacus Storage King and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Ki Corp/Public Storage’s NBIO at A$1.47

Abacus Storage King (ASK AU): Ki Corp/Public Storage’s NBIO at A$1.47

By Arun George

  • On 7 April, Abacus Storage King (ASK AU) disclosed a non-binding proposal from Ki Corporation and Public Storage (PSA US) at A$1.47, a 26.7% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • While below NTA (implying a P/NTA of 0.92x), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. It represents an all-time high. 
  • A binding offer is conditional on due diligence (expected to take six weeks) and Board recommendation. The Board should work to secure a binding offer closer to NTA.   

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief South Korea: SK Inc, Hanwha Aerospace, Samsung Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Key Implications of SK Inc’s Disposal of SK Siltron
  • Hanwha Aerospace – Lowers Rights Offering Capital Raise Amount To 2.3 Trillion Won
  • Potential Sale of a Controlling Stake in SK Siltron to Hahn & Co
  • Samsung Elec Better 1Q25 on Smartphone. 2-4Q25 Upside Due to Memory Price Recovery

Key Implications of SK Inc’s Disposal of SK Siltron

By Sanghyun Park

  • SK Inc is selling SK Siltron to cut its 68% debt-to-equity ratio. The sale could reduce borrowings below ₩5T and lower debt ratio to 30-40%.
  • Chey Tae-won’s divorce lawsuit risks his majority stake in SK Inc. Selling Siltron helps raise ₩1T for alimony without touching his SK Inc shares, potentially reducing the holding company discount.
  • SK Inc-SK Square merger is unlikely soon, despite asset sales and preparation on both sides, as SK Square recently reaffirmed no current merger plans. Setting a position now seems premature.

Hanwha Aerospace – Lowers Rights Offering Capital Raise Amount To 2.3 Trillion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • On 8 April, Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) announced that it plans to lower its rights offering capital raise amount from 3.6 trillion won to 2.3 trillion won (US$1.6 billion).
  • The remaining 1.3 trillion won will be secured through a third-party allocation paid-in capital increase targeting three companies, including Hanwha Energy, Hanwha Impact Partners, and Hanwha Energy Singapore. 
  • Hanwha Aerospace disclosed today that it expects sales of 30 trillion won (58% higher than consensus) and operating profit of 3 trillion won (20% higher than consensus) in 2025.

Potential Sale of a Controlling Stake in SK Siltron to Hahn & Co

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss about SK Inc (034730 KS) which is considering on selling the controlling stake of SK Siltron.
  • If SK is successful in selling 70.6% stake in SK Siltron for about 5 trillion won, it could result in more than 3 trillion won cash inflow for SK Inc. 
  • Our base case valuation of SK Inc is NAV of 13.9 trillion won (NAV per share of 192,217 won), representing a 61% upside from current levels.

Samsung Elec Better 1Q25 on Smartphone. 2-4Q25 Upside Due to Memory Price Recovery

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 1Q25 better than Consensus by a good margin, guided Operating Profit KRW 6.6tn versus Consensus 5.3tn. Better Smartphone and Memory price. Risk of demand boosted ahead of US tariffs. 
  • Consensus expects sequential growth from 1Q to 4Q25 on better memory prices and HBM3E contribution (late, small, but finally). 
  • The stock is cheap and outperforming, flat YTD and flat since the market correction started mid-Feb-25. Also outperforming SK Hynix. Main risk is AI demand outlook.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief United States: Chagee Holdings, Power Integrations, Ncr Corporation, S&P 500 INDEX, frontdoor Inc, Pvh Corp, GameStop, Cable One Inc, DoubleVerify, Lululemon Athletica and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Chagee IPO: Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation
  • Power Integrations Powers Up with GaN Breakthroughs—Is It Time To BUY Into the Future?
  • NCR Voyix: How Its Gradual Transition to a Recurring Revenue Model Is Panning Out In Terms Of Financial Impact!
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs; Still Bearish and Cautious
  • Frontdoor Just Launched a Game-Changing App—Is This the Future of Home Services?
  • PVH Corporation’s Mixed Bag: Calvin Klein & Tommy Hilfiger Shine But Global Headwinds & China Are A Cause Of Concern!
  • GameStop’s Secret Weapon: How Smart Vendor Deals Could Revive Its Fortunes!
  • Cable One’s Billion-Dollar Bet: Can Tech Upgrades & Customer Gains Help Them Outrun the Competition?
  • DoubleVerify Just Partnered With Meta and TikTok—Is This the Ultimate Social Media Power Play?
  • Lululemon Athletica Faces New Tariff Pressures Through Vietnam

Chagee IPO: Peer Comp and Thoughts on Valuation

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  is planning to raise up to US$500m through its upcoming US IPO.
  • It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we discuss latest industry dynamics, conduct a quick peer comparison and discuss the company’s valuation.

Power Integrations Powers Up with GaN Breakthroughs—Is It Time To BUY Into the Future?

By Baptista Research

  • Power Integrations, Inc., a company renowned for its high-performance electronic components focused on power conversion, reported its fourth quarter and full-year results, highlighting a mix of challenges and opportunities.
  • The company’s Q4 revenue reached $105 million, marking an 18% increase year-over-year but a sequential decline of 9%.
  • Despite these mixed signals, revenue for 2024 stood at $419 million, reflecting a 6% decrease from the previous year.

NCR Voyix: How Its Gradual Transition to a Recurring Revenue Model Is Panning Out In Terms Of Financial Impact!

By Baptista Research

  • NCR Voyix’s latest earnings offers crucial insights into the company’s strategic position and operational performance over the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • The company reported a decline in revenue, notably from its hardware division, aligning with expectations of a challenging market environment.
  • The total revenue stood at $682 million, with adjusted EBITDA showing a significant increase by 75% to $114 million, aided by cost-cutting measures and a focus on recurring revenue streams.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs; Still Bearish and Cautious

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. But that all changed in last week’s Compass (4/1/25), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious.
  • A historic selloff has ensued and significant damage has been done as market dynamics have worsened.
  • Until we see some base-building process develop alongside improving market dynamics, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the SPX is below its 200-day MA.

Frontdoor Just Launched a Game-Changing App—Is This the Future of Home Services?

By Baptista Research

  • Frontdoor’s financial performance in the third quarter of 2024 reflects both achievements and challenges for the company as it navigates a fluctuating market environment.
  • The company reported a 3% increase in revenue to $540 million compared to the same period last year, alongside a notable rise in gross profit margin by 550 basis points to reach 57%.
  • Net income saw a substantial uptick of 40% to $100 million, while Adjusted EBITDA increased by 29% to $165 million.

PVH Corporation’s Mixed Bag: Calvin Klein & Tommy Hilfiger Shine But Global Headwinds & China Are A Cause Of Concern!

By Baptista Research

  • PVH Corp’s recent earnings reflects a mix of achievements and challenges in the fiscal year 2024 and sets cautious expectations for 2025.
  • The company, which owns iconic brands Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, surpassed its initial 2024 guidance both in terms of revenue and non-GAAP EPS.
  • However, it faced a decrease in overall revenue compared to previous years, largely attributed to divestitures and external economic factors.

GameStop’s Secret Weapon: How Smart Vendor Deals Could Revive Its Fortunes!

By Baptista Research

  • GameStop Corporation reported its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results for 2022 with a noticeable shift toward profitability and efficient operations amidst a challenging retail environment.
  • The company’s transformation over the past couple of years has been a story of significant restructuring and strategic shifts aimed at revitalizing its financial health and market positioning.
  • A notable positive from the results is GameStop’s turnaround from a net loss in the fourth quarter of 2021 to a net income of $48.2 million in the same period of 2022.

Cable One’s Billion-Dollar Bet: Can Tech Upgrades & Customer Gains Help Them Outrun the Competition?

By Baptista Research

  • Cable One’s recent earnings presented a mixed set of financial results for its fourth quarter and full-year 2024.
  • The company, while navigating competitive pressures and changes in subscriber programs, managed to demonstrate some resilience in strategies aimed at stabilizing its business.
  • On the positive side, Cable One reported growth in its business broadband revenue by 2.6% year-over-year, driven by rising demand across its carrier, enterprise, and wholesale segments.

DoubleVerify Just Partnered With Meta and TikTok—Is This the Ultimate Social Media Power Play?

By Baptista Research

  • DoubleVerify, a company providing digital media measurement solutions, concluded 2024 with several notable achievements and a number of challenges that shape both its financial performance and future outlook.
  • Overall, DoubleVerify delivered substantial growth in revenue, achieving a 15% year-over-year increase to $657 million.
  • This growth was driven by significant momentum across its three main revenue streams.

Lululemon Athletica Faces New Tariff Pressures Through Vietnam

By Baptista Research

  • Lululemon Athletica Inc. recently reported its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results, marking another year of growth, while also spotlighting both achievements and challenges.
  • The company reported total revenue for the fourth quarter, excluding the 53rd week, increased by 8% year-over-year, or 9% on a constant currency basis.
  • Operating margin expanded by 40 basis points to 28.9%, and earnings per share rose by 16%.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief China: Bestechnic Shanghai , Duality Biotherapeutics, Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies, Beijing Yunji Technology Ltd, Yuexiu Property , Mixue Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Central Huijin’s ETF Creations Skew Performance
  • Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) IPO: Valuation Upside at Risk
  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Tech IPO: Forecasts and Valuation
  • Beijing Yunji Technology Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Mixue Group (2097 HK) – Updates on Valuation Outlook and Growth Forecast Based on 2024 Results

STAR50/STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: Central Huijin’s ETF Creations Skew Performance

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 1 change for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4 changes for the STAR100 Index in June.
  • We estimate turnover of 1.9% for the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX) and 4.5% for the STAR100 Index. The estimated round-trip trade is CNY 7.5bn (US$1.02bn).
  • Large ETF inflows could have led to the recent underperformance of a long add/ short delete trade. That could reverse once markets stabilize or when the passives trade the rebalance.

Duality Biotherapeutics (映恩生物) IPO: Valuation Upside at Risk

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Duality, a China-based clinical-stage biotechnology company, launched its IPO to raise up to US$200m via a Hong Kong listing.
  • We look at the deal dynamics and latest developments in the biotech sector.
  • The deal initially presented upside for investors but there’s a portion of its valuation now at risk due to the latest development.

Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Tech IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

  • Jiangsu Zenergy Battery Technologies (JSZENERGY CH) has announced the terms for its IPO. The company plans to issue 121.5m shares at HK$8.27 per share, raising HK$1.0bn (US$130m).
  • The company’s earnings have seen strong growth during the last 3-4 years driven by its LFP battery products and fall in lithium carbonate prices have helped turn around profitability.
  • However, our analysis on the company’s valuation shows that JZBT’s IPO is expensive and with the ongoing geopolitical tensions, we would remain on the sidelines.

Beijing Yunji Technology Ltd Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Beijing Yunji Technology Ltd (1860671D CH)  (BYTL) is planning to raise about US$100m through its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Citic, CBB International.
  • BYTL provides hospitality robotic AI agents, using advanced robotics and AI to enhance customer experiences. Its solutions include physical-interaction robots and AI-driven digitalization systems for streamlined decision-making and operational efficiency.
  • According to the F&S Report, BYTL ranked first globally in 2024 among robotic AI agent companies with multi-layer adaptable robots, leading in concurrent robot operations and total consumers served.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Yuexiu Property, Tata Motors, Softbank Group
  • US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that Washington will impose an additional 50% tariff on China effective April 9th, if Beijing does not back down from its 34% retaliatory tariffs.
  • Mr Trump’s post also stated that the US will terminate all talks with China, while commencing negotiations with other countries. Separately, the President told reporters at the White House that he was not looking at a pause on tariffs, but added that “many countries” were seeking negotiations and there would be fair deals in certain cases.

Mixue Group (2097 HK) – Updates on Valuation Outlook and Growth Forecast Based on 2024 Results

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Revenue growth of MIXUE in 2024 was the lowest in recent three year but is still higher than competitors.Together with higher profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. 
  • Based on 2024 results, we adjusted our forecast for the next three years. Declining performance growth is inevitable, but successful internationalization helps reassure its high growth outlook in the future
  • Due to concerns, investors need to pay attention to the performance verification.If 2025H1 net profit growth is significantly lower than 30% YoY, investors should be alert to a potential correction.

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