In today’s briefing:
- Impact of US Tariffs on Inflation, Disposable Income and GDP
- Why Silver Is Falling?
- Ohayo Japan | Market Rallies, Then Crashes
- Fashion E-Commerce in Japan: Stores Are Key Too
- India’s Rs.1.5T Q4 2025 Boost: Private Sector & Renewables Lead, Yearly Lag Persists
- Japan Morning Connection: Reciprocal Tariff Deadline Looms but Japan Is Front of the Line in Talks
- Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Origin Materials (ORGN)
- Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound
- Biopharma Week in Review – Concerning FDA Resignation; Tariffs Trigger Deeper Selloff
Impact of US Tariffs on Inflation, Disposable Income and GDP
- The US imposed sweeping 2025 tariffs, including a 27% reciprocal tariff on India, raising average import tariffs from 2.5% to over 15%.
- Tariffs are expected to raise US consumer prices by 2.3%, cut household income by $3,800 annually, and lower real GDP growth by up to 0.9 percentage points in 2025.
- Global trade dynamics are shifting. India may see a 50 bps GDP hit, but relatively smaller impact versus peers opens space for strategic realignment with US trade flows.
Why Silver Is Falling?
- Silver prices recently plunged 14%, driven by US tariffs, concerns over global trade slowdowns, and reduced industrial demand, overshadowing long-term fundamentals like strong green tech demand.
- The price drop reflects heightened economic uncertainty, triggered by geopolitical shifts, tariffs, and weak demand forecasts, leading to a sharp sell-off in silver, particularly affecting industrial applications.
- Despite short-term volatility, silver’s industrial demand remains robust, and long-term supply shortages persist. Tariffs and global trade concerns will continue influencing price fluctuations in the near term.
Ohayo Japan | Market Rallies, Then Crashes
- US stocks sank as tariff tensions with China escalated, with major indexes reversing gains amid rare levels of sustained market volatility.
- Japan gains priority in US tariff talks, but Tokyo warns proposed duties could hurt its auto sector and reduce investment in the US.
- AVI, holding 2.3% of Rohto, urged the firm to scale back regenerative medicine, citing poor commercialization prospects and plans to publicize its demand.
Fashion E-Commerce in Japan: Stores Are Key Too
- The Japanese fashion e-commerce market is undergoing rapid transformation: while online sales continue to grow, the channel’s share of total fashion sales has fluctuated due to strong in-store performance.
- Even the best exemplars of effective integration of online and offline and personalised marketing have seen e-commerce share fall as physical store sales have risen faster for many.
- Omnichannel models continue to evolve, with great examples of deeper integration of stores and digital through staff activities like blogging and Live Commerce.
India’s Rs.1.5T Q4 2025 Boost: Private Sector & Renewables Lead, Yearly Lag Persists
- Project completions rose to Rs.1.5 trillion in March 2025, surpassing Rs.1.3 trillion in December 2024, but yearly performance lags behind 2023-24 and 2022-23.
- Private sector led with Rs.675 billion, while central government completed Rs.463 billion, boosted by the Rs.257 billion P-75 Submarines Project finalized in January 2025.
- Renewable energy dominated completions at Rs.326 billion, with Adani Green’s Rs.65 billion solar projects in Rajasthan enhancing India’s green energy capacity.
Japan Morning Connection: Reciprocal Tariff Deadline Looms but Japan Is Front of the Line in Talks
- US falters over the day after a strong start with renewed tariff concerns depressing sentiment.
- Banks and insurance rallied with Treasury yields over the day rising despite the pullback from equities.
- US / Japan bilateral talks may push the BoJ into action.
Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Origin Materials (ORGN)
- The WTR Sustainable Index was down 7.2% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 9.1%), the Russell 2000 Index (down 9.7%), and the Nasdaq Index (down 9.8%).
- Energy Technology (12.8% of the index) was down 9.0%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (45.0% of the index) was down 8.8%, ClimateTech Mining was down 3.0%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (21.6% of the index) was down 6.4%.
- Top 10 Performers: PGTK, GWTI, MVST, NRM, LEV, AZRE, JEV, VIHD, ENG, RUN
Tariff Shock Creates Overreaction: Indian Metal Stocks Poised for a Tactical Rebound
- U.S. tariff surprises triggered a sharp correction in global commodity prices and Indian metal stocks.
- Despite limited U.S. exposure, Indian metal producers were hit hard—despite strong domestic demand and top-tier cost positioning.
- Valuation reset appears overdone; further dips offer a compelling entry point. Vedanta, JSW Steel, Jindal Steel and Power and NMDC are best bets in our view.
Biopharma Week in Review – Concerning FDA Resignation; Tariffs Trigger Deeper Selloff
- The forced resignation of the FDA’s CBER Director Peter Marks shook the biopharma market, as he called out RFK Jr.’s goal of confirming vaccine “misinformation and lies.”
- President Donald Trump’s broad reciprocal tariffs weakened biopharma further, as the exemption for pharmaceuticals was unclear and eventual tariffs on drug products are now largely expected.
- The FDA uncertainty and stagflation fears remain an overhang on the industry.
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