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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Apr 03
0

Most Read: Nick Scali Ltd, BYD, Shin Kong Financial Holding, Kokusai Electric , Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), Hanmi Semiconductor, Chagee Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion
  • Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows
  • BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Buy-The-Dip Scenarios With Passive Buying from HSI/HSCEI Trackers
  • Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) Deal Gets FSC Approval – Still A Good Swap
  • Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split
  • CATL A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium
  • Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?
  • Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Jun25: Taishin-Shin Kong Merger Could Cause Two Changes
  • Tariff Transition Smoothing
  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case

BYD (1211 HK): God’s Eye & Potential HSTECH Index Inclusion

By Brian Freitas

Northern Star’s Acquisition of De Grey Mining: The Many Index Implications & Flows

By Brian Freitas

BYD (1211 HK) Tactical Outlook: Buy-The-Dip Scenarios With Passive Buying from HSI/HSCEI Trackers

By Nico Rosti

  • A recent insight by Brian Freitas signals that BYD (1211 HK)buying from global index trackers is done (more passive buying from HSI/HSCEI trackers may come later this month).
  • As of Tuesday, the stock is currently in the middle of a modest pullback, 1 week down, reached a support area where the probability of a bounce is around 50%.
  • We are at the start of the month, it may be early to benefit from the passive buying discussed by Brian Freitas, however this pullback could support a buy-the-dips strategy.

Shin Kong (2888 TT)/Taishin (2887 TT) Deal Gets FSC Approval – Still A Good Swap

By Travis Lundy

  • Late Monday, The Financial Supervisory Commission approved the merger where Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) is to be absorbed by Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT). Announcement here.
  • Yesterday, the chairmen of both Shin Kong and Taishin decided the merger base date, which has been set a bit further out than even I expected, at 24 July 2025.
  • The terms tightened yesterday. There is still a worthwhile switch to be done (or arb if you have cheap borrow), and NEWCO is cheap to peers, STILL.

Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Still Probable Unless Kokusai Elec (6525) Offering/Split

By Travis Lundy

  • The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
  • Kokusai did NOT get added, waiting for a split, an offering, or time to pass. Only one sector change was made. So we see One ADD and One DELETE.
  • The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.

CATL A/H Listing – Thoughts on A/H Premium

By Sumeet Singh

  • Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH), one of the world’s largest battery solutions providers, aims to raise at least US$5bn in its H-share listing.
  • CATL is the global leader in new energy vehicle battery solutions, in China and globally, as per SNE Research. Its A-shares have been listed since 2018.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about its recent updates and provide our thoughts on valuations.

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

By Brian Freitas

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Jun25: Taishin-Shin Kong Merger Could Cause Two Changes

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the June 2025 index rebal event.
  • Currently, we see one change for T50 and one change for T100.

Tariff Transition Smoothing

By Phil Rush

  • President Trump’s tariffs embed structural cost pressures, compounding supply chain changes and creating a stagflationary shock central banks cannot offset.
  • Potential retaliation risks raising inflation expectations, constraining the extent to which monetary policy can smooth transitional pains through temporary easing.
  • We still believe any dovish policy imperative is likely to be short, shallow, and reversed, with central banks forced to remain flexible and focused on shorter horizons again.

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$400-500 million through a Nasdaq IPO. 
  • According to iResearch, as of December 31, 2024, Chagee was the largest premium freshly made tea drink brand in China by the number of stores.
  • The bull case rests on a strong brand, leading market share, peer-leading revenue growth, top-tier profitability and cash generation.   

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Apr 02
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): Samsung Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): Samsung Electronics, Shinhan Group, KB Financial
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (March): $24 Bn Monthly Inflows

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 28th): Samsung Electronics, Shinhan Group, KB Financial

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Mar 28th which has an aggregated short of USD 3.6bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Samsung Electronics, Shinhan Group, KB Financial, Samsung Biologics.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (March): $24 Bn Monthly Inflows

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
  • We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
  • We highlight flows of Alibaba, China Mobile, Xiaomi, Guotai Junan, Ke.

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Apr 02
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Marginal Gains Ahead of Tariff Announcement and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Marginal Gains Ahead of Tariff Announcement
  • Japan Morning Connection: Pre-Tariff Relief Rally Will Start Japan Higher to Start
  • ₹22,919 Cr PLI for Components: A Game-Changer Bet to Deepen Electronics Value Chain
  • Monday Delight: 31/03/25
  • Japan Shopping Mall Sector in 2025: Robust Sales, Fewer Doors
  • Electrifying 2W Sales in March – Bajaj Auto Takes the Lead
  • CHMP Meeting Update: Five New Medicines Recommended for Approval, Rejects Kisunla Application
  • What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 1 April (dsm-firmenich | Shell)

Ohayo Japan | Marginal Gains Ahead of Tariff Announcement

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks closed mixed, with the S&P 500 rising 0.4% to 5,633 and the Nasdaq Composite rebounding 0.9%
  • OpenAI announced a $40 billion investment round, valuing the company at $300 billion – nearly double its $157 billion valuation from October 2024
  • Mitsubishi Heavy Industries has secured a ¥32 billion contract with Japan’s Ministry of Defense to develop a new ground-launched missile

Japan Morning Connection: Pre-Tariff Relief Rally Will Start Japan Higher to Start

By Andrew Jackson

  • Micron higher on brighter industry guidance for DRAM, with NAND hikes also due this month.
  • Sanken +10.75% yesterday with MS now on board for ON semi’s pursuit of Allegro Microsystems.
  • Bullish broker initiation for space defence laggard play -83% below 2024 highs.

₹22,919 Cr PLI for Components: A Game-Changer Bet to Deepen Electronics Value Chain

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India approved a INR 22,919 crore PLI scheme for non-chip electronic components, targeting PCBs, display modules, resistors, and more moving beyond finished goods to core sub-assemblies.
  • This marks a critical shift toward deep localization and import substitution, enhancing India’s value capture, margins, and positioning in the global electronics supply chain.
  • This PLI redefines India’s electronics play from low-margin assembly to high-value component manufacturing—benefiting players like Dixon, Amber, and Kaynes, and supporting a strategic export pivot.

Monday Delight: 31/03/25

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • Piaggio likely needs no introduction, as it is the company behind the iconic Vespa scooter.
  • In addition to Vespa, Piaggio owns the motorcycle brands Aprilia and Moto Guzzi, though approximately 50% of its revenue comes from scooter sales.
  • The strength of Piaggio’s brands is reflected in its exceptional Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of over 30%.

Japan Shopping Mall Sector in 2025: Robust Sales, Fewer Doors

By Michael Causton

  • The number of new mall developments in 2024 in Japan held steady but will collapse in 2025 due to higher costs, lower demand and a lack of labour.
  • At the same time, for existing malls, sales were robust through 2023 and 2024 and look set to continue at higher levels despite consumer restraint.
  • Both locals and tourists alike use malls for leisure, entertainment and shopping and, as the number of malls falls, and upgrades continue, efficiency is improving.

Electrifying 2W Sales in March – Bajaj Auto Takes the Lead

By Sreemant Dudhoria

  • March recorded the highest electric two-wheeler sales since the last festive season. But will this momentum sustain, or is it just a year-end sales push?
  • EV penetration in two-wheeler sales has reached its highest level in the financial year 2025.
  • Bajaj Auto Ltd (BJAUT IN),TVS Motor (TVSL IN) are the top picks in the electric two wheeler category.Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN)has been the most inconsistent player despite having major volumes.

CHMP Meeting Update: Five New Medicines Recommended for Approval, Rejects Kisunla Application

By Tina Banerjee

  • CHMP has recommended five medicines for approval at its March 2025 meeting, including two innovative drugs and three biosimilars.
  • The Committee Recommended not granting a marketing authorization for Eli Lilly’s Kisunla (donasemab), a medicine intended for the treatment of early Alzheimer’s disease.
  • The committee recommended extensions of indication for seven medicines that are already authorized in the EU, while recommended to refuse extending the marketing authorisation for Pemazyre for myeloid/lymphoid neoplasms.

What’s New(s) in Amsterdam – 1 April (dsm-firmenich | Shell)

By The IDEA!

  • On February 13, 2025, when publishing in FY24 results, dsm-firmenich announced its intention to repurchase ordinary shares with an aggregate market value of EUR 1bn and reduce its issued capital.
  • This share repurchase program will start for an initial EUR 500m and will be increased to EUR 1bn upon the completion of the previously announced sale of the company’s stake in the Feed Enzymes Alliance.
  • As of today, April 1, 2025, the company intends to begin repurchasing ordinary shares for a total amount of EUR 580m, of which EUR 80m to cover commitments under the Group’s share-based compensation plans and EUR 500m to reduce its issued capital.

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Apr 02
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Fushan Energy (639 HK): Cash 80% of Market Cap and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Fushan Energy (639 HK): Cash 80% of Market Cap, 100% Payout Implies 12% Trailing Dividend Yield
  • KE (BEKE US, 2423 HK): 2024 Result, Accelerating Quarter by Quarter, Upside Above 100%
  • ENN Energy (2688 HK): Valuing ENN Natural Gas H-Share
  • Intel Vision: Lip Bu Tan’s First Keynote As Intel CEO
  • China TCM (570.HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook Based on 2024 Results
  • Gap Trade Opportunities in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 2Q 2025
  • India Air Conditioners | Who’s Chilling How
  • Vodafone Idea: Another Lifeline, But Structural Challenges Persist
  • Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update
  • Notes from Conversation with ANGI IR

Fushan Energy (639 HK): Cash 80% of Market Cap, 100% Payout Implies 12% Trailing Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • Shougang Fushan Resources’ (639 HK) FY24 revenues/profits were down 14%/21% YoY due to the decline in coking coal prices, which were 14% YoY to 1666 RMB/ton (on similar volumes). 
  • At 1295 RMB/ton, spot prices are 25% lower than last year’s average, yet the stock is supported by cash, which represents 80% of its market capitalization (10 billion HKD).
  • The company provided a 100% payout of 30 HKD cents, resulting in a 12% dividend yield; however, at current spot prices, the yield is 7%.

KE (BEKE US, 2423 HK): 2024 Result, Accelerating Quarter by Quarter, Upside Above 100%

By Ming Lu

  • Exhibiting home revenue recovered significantly in 4Q24, while new home revenue recovered from 3Q24.
  • The growth rate of active stores and active agents accelerated quarter by quarter.
  • We conclude an upside of 105% and a price target of US$42.00. Buy.

ENN Energy (2688 HK): Valuing ENN Natural Gas H-Share

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • We calculated that after the privatisation of ENN Energy (2688 HK), the EPS of ENN Natural Gas (600803 CH) will be Rmb1.94 for FY25F and Rmb2.11 for FY26F.
  • By using ENN Energy’s undisturbed PER (with and without a 10% discount) and Kunlun Energy (135 HK)‘s ex-cash PER, ENN-NG H-share is worth 6.8-7.9x for FY25F and 6.3-7.2x for FY26F.
  • ENN-NG H-share is hence valued at HK$14.11-16.37, implying that ENN Energy’s value under the privatisation proposal is HK$66.02-72.67, which is lower than Somerly’s HK$80 estimate.

Intel Vision: Lip Bu Tan’s First Keynote As Intel CEO

By William Keating

  • Rather than love, than money, than fame, give me the truth
  • I intend to under promise and over deliver. I will not be satisfied until we delight you
  • How long will I stay at Intel? I’m here for as long as it takes

China TCM (570.HK) – Updates on Performance Forecast and Valuation Outlook Based on 2024 Results

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • TCM finished drugs and TCM decoction pieces businesses could be the second and third growth curve of China TCM when the concentrated TCM granules business is facing VBP headwinds.
  • 2024 would be the performance low point. Due to 2024 low base, we would see positive growth in 2025.Performance recovery is expected in next three years based on our forecast.
  • Annual profit of RMB1 billion is achievable. If based on 10x P/E, market value is RMB10 billion.We think if valuations fall below RMB10 billion, investors can consider buying on dips.

Gap Trade Opportunities in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 2Q 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trade opportunities involving Korean preferred and common shares in 2Q 2025.
  • The following five pairs (between common and prefs) have experienced more than 10% difference in their share prices in the past six months. 
  • These five pairs (LG Chem, Amorepacific Corp, Amorepacific Group, CJ Cheiljedang, and Korea Investment Holdings) are more likely to revert to closing their gaps in the coming weeks. 

India Air Conditioners | Who’s Chilling How

By Pranav Bhavsar

Vodafone Idea: Another Lifeline, But Structural Challenges Persist

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • GoI converts ₹36,950 crore of spectrum dues into equity, increasing its stake to ~49%. Promoters’ stake diluted to ~25.5%, with public shareholders now owning just ~23.8%. 
  • While the move eases cash outflows till H1FY28, Vodafone Idea’s AGR dues, weak subscriber base, and funding needs remain material headwinds.
  • Structural concerns remain unresolved, and further dilution risks persist along with loosing market share.

Oisix ra daichi (3182 JP): Q3 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In January 2024, SHiDAX Corporation was consolidated as a subsidiary, boosting sales and EBITDA in Q4 FY03/24.
  • Cumulative Q3 FY03/25 progress rates: 75.9% sales, 93.7% EBITDA, 84.4% operating profit, 110.5% net income.
  • B2C Subscription sales decreased YoY, but segment profit increased due to higher ARPU and cost-efficient acquisitions.

Notes from Conversation with ANGI IR

By Richard Howe

  • On March 31st 2025 I spoke to Mark Schneider of investor relations from IAC.
  • Mark currently covers investor relations for Angi, Inc as well. but Angi will be hiring its new head of investor relations soon.
  • Our conversation was productive and increased my confidence in the outlook for Angi.

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Apr 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

By Joe Jasper

  • Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
  • Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
  • We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a “sell rallies” regime

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Apr 02
0

Daily Brief ECM: Wuxi XDC Placement – Following Biologics Playbook and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Wuxi XDC Placement – Following Biologics Playbook, past Deals Have Been Mixed
  • SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): IPO for Yield Chasers, Traditional Players on the Sidelines
  • Sigenergy Technology Pre-IPO – Achieved Market Leadership Within Two Years in a Nascent Industry
  • Maynilad Water Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Growth Hasn’t Always Been as Strong

Wuxi XDC Placement – Following Biologics Playbook, past Deals Have Been Mixed

By Sumeet Singh

  • WuXi AppTec (2359 HK) aims to raise around US$250m via selling around 3.5% stake in WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK).
  • WuXi XDC Cayman (WXDC) is a contract research, development, and manufacturing organization (CRDMO) focused on the global antibody drug conjugates (ADC) and broader bioconjugate market providing integrated and end-to-end services.
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

SmartStop Self Storage (SMA): IPO for Yield Chasers, Traditional Players on the Sidelines

By IPO Boutique

  • According to our sources, the deal is multiple-times oversubscribed — our sources stated around 5x. 
  • Self-Storage was Monday’s second best performing sub-sector (+1.8%) as the overall REIT sector (+0.7%) slightly outperformed the broader market.
  • While the “typical” IPO investor may not be “enthused”, the timing for this type of deal “may” be ideal for yield-chasers.

Sigenergy Technology Pre-IPO – Achieved Market Leadership Within Two Years in a Nascent Industry

By Troy Wong

  • Sigenergy Technology (Sigenergy) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Sigenergy is a market leader in the stackable all-in-one DESS solutions market. Since inception, its sales grew exponentially as it expands its distribution network, causing net loss to narrow significantly.
  • There are various areas of risks regarding its high customer and supplier concentration, high raw material sensitivity, high related party transactions, and having a short operating history.

Maynilad Water Services Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Growth Hasn’t Always Been as Strong

By Sumeet Singh

  • Maynilad Water Services (MYNLD PH)  (MWS) is looking to raise at least US$633m in its upcoming Philippines IPO.
  • MWS is a leading global water utility player operating the largest concession by population served within a single concession area in the Philippines and Southeast Asia (SEA), as per GlobalData.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

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Apr 02
0

Daily Brief Credit: Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Greentown China – Strong Earnings, Good Net Debt Reduction

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • In the US, New York Fed President John Williams said tariffs could produce “more prolonged effects” on inflation, as indirect effects from the new duties “might not be fully felt for a couple of years”.
  • Mr Williams added that “there’s a lot of uncertainty about how the economy will evolve and a lot of uncertainty about all the policy actions”, and hence expects the US central bank to keep interest rates unchanged for “some time”.
  • Treasuries gained for a second day yesterday on continued safe-haven flows, ahead of US President Donald Trump’s expected announcement of reciprocal tariffs tomorrow.

Greentown China – Strong Earnings, Good Net Debt Reduction

By Leonard Law, CFA

  • Greentown China’s FY 2024 results were robust, considering its above-industry sales, stable margins and meaningful net debt reduction.
  • In particular, the property development gross margin remained strong relative to peers.
  • Importantly, the company has demonstrated good access to onshore and offshore financing.

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Apr 02
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: T&D Holdings (8795) – A Really Good Look (Divs Up and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • T&D Holdings (8795) – A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)
  • Skyworth Group (751 HK)’s Latest Partial Buyback. Thoughts On Proration
  • KCC Corp: Considering on Issuing an Overseas EB for Its 10% Stake in Samsung C&T
  • Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Binding Offer a Done Deal
  • Complete Breakdown of the HLB Merger Swap Details
  • AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Firm Offer As Ho Bee Walks
  • Event-Driven Investment Opportunities: NIOX Merger, NZME SOTP, SAGA Privatization and More
  • Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu Returns To The Well?
  • AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Binding Proposal at A$0.655
  • Hindware Home Innovation Ltd: Will Restructuring Change the Company’s Fortunes?

T&D Holdings (8795) – A Really Good Look (Divs Up, Big Buyback, Good Historical Stats)

By Travis Lundy

  • Yesterday, post-close, T&D Holdings (8795 JP)  announced ¥40 for 31-Mar-25 FY-end dividend (¥80/yr) and ¥120/share/year in the year to March 2026 on a higher planned payout ratio.
  • The company also announced guidance for Adjusted Profit for 2025 at ¥130bn (up), and guidance for March 2026 at ¥140bn (lower growth than this past year). 
  • They announced the current ¥50bn buyback was 87.5% complete (they have until 13 May to complete) and a new buyback starting 19 May to spend up to ¥100bn over 10.5mos.

Skyworth Group (751 HK)’s Latest Partial Buyback. Thoughts On Proration

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 23 December 2022, Skyworth Group (751 HK) announced (another) partial buyback, at HK$3.80/share, a 20.25% premium to undisturbed. On the 28 March, terms were bumped to $5.00/share. 
  • At the close of the Offer, the Wong Concert Group held 50.35%, and were no longer subject to the creeper rule. The Group now holds 56.04%
  • Yet another Partial Offer has been announced (HK$3.11/share, a 15.19% premium)), which will lift the Group’s stake to 66.45%.  Minimum pro-ration is 37.84%. It is likely to go higher.

KCC Corp: Considering on Issuing an Overseas EB for Its 10% Stake in Samsung C&T

By Douglas Kim

  • Kcc Corp (002380 KS) is considering on issuing an overseas exchangeable bond (EB) for its 10% stake in Samsung C&T (028260 KS).
  • KCC is the second largest shareholder of Samsung C&T with a 10% stake in the company which is worth 2 trillion won (US$1.4 billion).
  • Our NAV valuation of KCC Corp suggests NAV per share of 332,947 won, which is 27% higher than current price.

Dada Nexus (DADA US): JD.com’s Binding Offer a Done Deal

By Arun George

  • Dada Nexus (DADA US) disclosed a binding proposal from JD.com Inc (ADR) (JD US) at US$2.00 per ADS, a 41.8% premium to the undisturbed price of US$1.41 (24 January).
  • The shareholder vote is low-risk (two-thirds voting threshold), as JD.com represents 63.2% of voting power. The dissenting condition (less than 12% of outstanding shares) is waivable. 
  • Although the offer is unattractive, this is a done deal. The transaction is expected to close within the third quarter of 2025.

Complete Breakdown of the HLB Merger Swap Details

By Sanghyun Park

  • Appraisal rights are for HLB Life Science holders only. Record date: April 16. Objection: May 28–June 11. Exercise: June 12–July 2. Spread’s fat—over 11% today.
  • Swap spread closed at 2.3%. With short selling back, execution looks clean. Classic arb: short HLB Inc, long HLB Life Science, cover with new HLB Inc shares post-merger.
  • HLB has a cult-like retail base that follows management blindly. Despite headline cancellation risk, real odds may be lower, meaning the swap spread could be seriously mispriced—prime arb setup.

AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Firm Offer As Ho Bee Walks

By David Blennerhassett

  • The AVID consortium’s late-November A$0.67/share NBIO appeared a lock; until Ho Bee Land Ltd (HOBEE SP) lobbed a A$0.70/share NBIO in January. Ho Bee also acquired a 5.39% stake. 
  • AVJennings (AVJ AU) granted both suitors exclusive due diligence, the terms of which expired in February. AVJ said at the time it remained in “active discussions” with both.
  • AVJ and AVID have now entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed at A$0.655/share. A special dividend – included in the Scheme consideration – could add A$0.072/share in franking credits. 

Event-Driven Investment Opportunities: NIOX Merger, NZME SOTP, SAGA Privatization and More

By Special Situation Investments

  • NIOX Group received a non-binding takeover proposal from Keensight Capital at 81p/share, with a 9% spread.
  • Øystein Spetalen surpassed 50% ownership in SAGA Pure, triggering a mandatory bid under Norwegian securities law.
  • Pacific Current Group’s tender was undersubscribed; River Capital increased its stake to 40.48%, while Regal Funds exited.

Jinke Smart (9666 HK): Boyu Returns To The Well?

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 27th September 2022, Boyu Group launched a HK$12/share VGO for PRC-incorporated property management play Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), a 33.04% premium to last close.
  • Boyu and concert parties held 53.05%, and the Offer was contingent on regulatory approvals and 7.71% of shares out tendering. 4.79% tendered. Boyu also acquired 7.15% in the market.
  • Two days after announcing very ordinary FY24 results, Jinke shares were suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. Presumably Boyu is on the acquisition path again. Another VGO or a privatisation?

AVJennings (AVJ AU): AVID’s Binding Proposal at A$0.655

By Arun George

  • Avjennings Ltd (AVJ AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with AVID at A$0.655, 2.2% below its previous A$0.67 offer and a 98.5% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The key conditions are shareholder and regulatory approvals (FIRB and OIO). The vote is low-risk as SC Global (54.02% of outstanding shares) will vote in favour. 
  • Despite the marginally lower price, the offer is attractive, as evidenced by the hefty takeover premium. This is a done deal, with the scheme meeting expected in mid-June.

Hindware Home Innovation Ltd: Will Restructuring Change the Company’s Fortunes?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Hindware Home Innovation (HINDWARE IN) plans to demerge its consumer appliances division into a separate listed entity.
  • Demerger removes loss-making drag, improving profitability and segment-specific valuation clarity.
  • Unlocks hidden value; better execution with new CEO with clear growth trajectory may lead further value creation for shareholders.

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Apr 02
0

Daily Brief Macro: EA Disinflates March’s Excess and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • EA Disinflates March’s Excess
  • Helixtap China Report: Short-term Downward Bias In China Demand Outlook Amid Tariff Tensions
  • Asian Equities: India – Brace for Another Leg Down in the Near Term
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/13] Henry Hub Rebounds on Declining Output and Rising LNG Exports
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/13] WTI Climbed on Tariffs and Inventory Draws
  • RBI Rate Decision: Impact on Nifty 50 and NSE Banks, Insights and Strategies
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March
  • Challenges To The Dollar – Make For A Sell
  • -50% Orange Juice Price Implosion
  • Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March

EA Disinflates March’s Excess

By Phil Rush

  • Euro area inflation slightly undershot consensus expectations in March, consistent with the correlation of surprises and energy prices. Yet it was 7bps above our forecast.
  • Services prices drove core inflation down to 2.4%, creating some dovish space. However, the headline outcome reversed last month’s upside to match February forecasts.
  • Resilience in the real economy still justifies more cautious easing close to neutral, so we expect graduated cuts to skip April for June, but the risk of an extra cut has risen.

Helixtap China Report: Short-term Downward Bias In China Demand Outlook Amid Tariff Tensions

By Arusha Das

  • Trade war impacts the trade flow 
  • Arbitrage narrows on wintering 
  • Fluctuating inventory level indicates at a whimsical buying pattern 

Asian Equities: India – Brace for Another Leg Down in the Near Term

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • Indian equity’s recent spike overlooks near-term risks – possible cuts in consensus EPS estimates, risks arising from reciprocal tariffs and another bout of likely INR depreciation. Valuations are again expensive.
  • Our analysis of sector fundamentals foretells earnings estimate cuts in most sectors. Financials, and to a lesser extent, consumer discretionary could see upgrades. Expanding trade deficit could drive INR decline.
  • In the near term we are cautious about India. For country-dedicated investors we recommend increasing exposure to financials (particularly large cap private banks), select consumer discretionary, and defensives like utilities.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/13] Henry Hub Rebounds on Declining Output and Rising LNG Exports

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 28/Mar, U.S. natural gas prices gained 4.6% due to rising LNG exports and a drop in daily natural gas output.
  • Henry Hub gained 1.7% on 27/Mar (Thu), driven by lower output, record LNG exports, and stronger demand forecasts, despite a build in U.S. natural gas storage.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR decreased to 0.98 on 28/Mar from 1.05 on 21/Mar. Call OI fell by 10.1% WoW, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/13] WTI Climbed on Tariffs and Inventory Draws

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures rose 1.6% for the week ending 28/Mar, driven by escalating trade tensions and declining U.S. crude oil inventories.
  • The U.S. rig count fell by one to 592. The oil rig count dropped by two to 484, and gas rigs rose by one to 103.
  • WTI OI PCR grew to 0.91 on 28/Mar from 0.90 on 21/Mar. Call OI increased by 7.0% WoW, while put OI grew by 7.3%.

RBI Rate Decision: Impact on Nifty 50 and NSE Banks, Insights and Strategies

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to announce a monetary policy decision on Wednesday 9 April 2025. 
  • Market Expectations: The market anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut, supported by a strong consensus. However, the RBI has surprised markets in 28% of its rate decisions over the past decade.
  • Index Sensitivity to Rate Decisions: Historical data shows the NSE Nifty Bank Index reacts more significantly to RBI announcements than the NIFTY 50 Index.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 31 March

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils prices extend dip versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
  • Margins hold firm for heavy grades, pointing to still-strong supply-demand fundamentals.
  • Firm margins partially cushion impact of weaker light-grade margins.

Challenges To The Dollar – Make For A Sell

By Sharmila Whelan

  • We still like the US dollar this year but medium to long-term the currency is challenged.
  • The share of the dollar in international reserves is declining steadily.
  • The biggest threat is not renminbi internationalisation by mBridge and other multi central bank digital currency platforms. 

-50% Orange Juice Price Implosion

By The Commodity Report

  •  -50% Orange Juice Price Implosion After a crazy price surge – orange juice futures traded at the ICE have more than halved since the start of the year.
  • While reaching its temporary high of 539 USX in December, the forward contract is now trading at 247 USX.
  • The price is now back at levels it was trading at the beginning of 2024. Compared to 2020 futures pricing is still up 150%. (yeah you read that right)

Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 31 March

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils demand could hold firm over the coming weeks as buyers replenish low stocks and lube consumption holds steady.
  • Rising crude oil prices could provide additional support.
  • Seasonal slowdown in demand from end of second quarter typically starts to curb buying interest several weeks before then.

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Apr 02
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Kcc Corp, Voltas Ltd, ST Engineering and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • KCC Corp: Considering on Issuing an Overseas EB for Its 10% Stake in Samsung C&T
  • India Air Conditioners | Who’s Chilling How
  • STI Books 5.3% Total Return in 1Q25

KCC Corp: Considering on Issuing an Overseas EB for Its 10% Stake in Samsung C&T

By Douglas Kim

  • Kcc Corp (002380 KS) is considering on issuing an overseas exchangeable bond (EB) for its 10% stake in Samsung C&T (028260 KS).
  • KCC is the second largest shareholder of Samsung C&T with a 10% stake in the company which is worth 2 trillion won (US$1.4 billion).
  • Our NAV valuation of KCC Corp suggests NAV per share of 332,947 won, which is 27% higher than current price.

India Air Conditioners | Who’s Chilling How

By Pranav Bhavsar

STI Books 5.3% Total Return in 1Q25

By Geoff Howie

  • ST Engineering led STI with a 46% rally, 12M Consensus Estimate Target Price rose 36% to S$6.85.
  • Net creation of S$36M in units increased combined AUM of two STI tracking ETFs from S$2.3B to S$2.6B.
  • STI stocks booked S$1.63 billion net institutional outflow in 1Q25, mainly from STI Banks and S-REIT Sector.

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