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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Another Play on the Market Rally and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Another Play on the Market Rally
  • Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Key IPhone Suppliers Didn’t Rally With Apple; Opportunity for Rebound?
  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2024
  • Tesla’s Q3 2024 Earnings: Production Surge, China Growth, and FSD Innovations Await
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-Oct-2024): AI server liquid cooling status: efficient or not?
  • Tong Ren Tang Technologies (1666.HK) – Undervalued; Performance Will Rebound After a Brief Headwind
  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK) FY24 Results and Concall: 7x FY25PE,1.2x EV-EBITDA and 9% Dividend Yield
  • KULR Technology Group Inc.
  • Xlmedia (XLM) – Tuesday, Jul 2, 2024
  • AFT Pharmaceuticals – Maxigesic IV reaches the Chinese shores


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Another Play on the Market Rally

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Dongxiang (3818 HK) stands on a discount of 82.1% to NAV after factoring in the recent market rally, not limiting to its Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) holdings.
  • Its listed equities may have gained Rmb314m, but the HK$41m market capitalisation growth has not reflected this. The gains on its unlisted investments have not been included yet.  
  • CNDX is now more likely to have a positive swing in the bottom line in FY25. Its tiny sportswear business has also witnessed a sequential moderation in sales decline. 

Apple Supply Chain Monitor: Key IPhone Suppliers Didn’t Rally With Apple; Opportunity for Rebound?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Key iPhone components suppliers’ share prices have substantially underperformed Apple, particularly Largan Precision, Genius Electronic Optical, and Zhen Ding.
  • There are reasons for iPhone 16 upgrade optimism. We also note that key suppliers failed to rally with Apple shares post-Fed rate cut.
  • Apple suppliers’ 2025E forecasts haven’t fallen much so far, despite the negative stock market reaction. If negative iPhone 16 reports prove exaggerated, Largan, Genius, and Zhen Ding could rebound.

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 4Q 2024.
  • Volatility has been high in the Korean stock market in the past several weeks resulting in some interesting widening of some gaps among numerous holdcos and opcos in Korea. 
  • Of the 38 pair trades, 19 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and the other 19 opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period. 

Tesla’s Q3 2024 Earnings: Production Surge, China Growth, and FSD Innovations Await

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Tesla aims for 462,000 deliveries in Q3 2024, with analysts predicting actual numbers could reach 470,000 units. This increase highlights strong demand, particularly in China.
  • Vehicle registrations in China rose nearly 20% QoQ, driven by the Model Y’s popularity. Despite expiring subsidies, Tesla expects Q3 deliveries to exceed its previous best quarter by 5%.
  • Tesla’s stock is up only 4.85% year-to-date, significantly lagging the S&P 500’s 21% rise. Factors include declining EV demand, price cuts affecting margins, and increased competition.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-Oct-2024): AI server liquid cooling status: efficient or not?

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Liquid cooling solutions for AI servers are evolving rapidly to provide more efficient and effective cooling for high-performance computing needs.
  • L&T Semicon in India plans to mass produce its first chip within the next two years, showing growth and innovation in the semiconductor industry.
  • Taiwan is focusing on modular, intelligent, and collaborative robotics solutions for niche markets, with a shift away from humanoids in its approach to robotics.

Tong Ren Tang Technologies (1666.HK) – Undervalued; Performance Will Rebound After a Brief Headwind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Considering 23H1 high base, it can be understood that 24H1 achieved a low single-digit growth. If excluding gain on disposal of subsidiaries, net profit in 24H1 would have negative growth.
  • Mainland China contributed about 90% of total revenue, but an imminent risk is VBP, which will pose a challenge to the pricing autonomy of Tong Ren Tang’s OTC TCM drugs. 
  • After absorbing the high base impact of 2023 this year, performance growth would return to double digits in 2025. Tong Ren Tang is undervalued. Reasonable valuation is P/E of 15.

UMP Healthcare (722 HK) FY24 Results and Concall: 7x FY25PE,1.2x EV-EBITDA and 9% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK) reported a tepid FY24 owing to weak sentiment in HK. Revenues were up 3% YoY; profits were down 27% YoY ( adj profits -34% YoY). 
  • The environment in HK is gradually improving, and we believe there is a steady recovery on the horizon for the company.
  • The stock trades at 7x FY25 PE and more than 58% of its market cap in net cash, with a yield trending towards 9%. 

KULR Technology Group Inc.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • KULR Technology Group, Inc. develops and commercializes high-performance thermal management technologies for electronics, batteries, and other components across a range of applications.
  • Currently, it is focused on high performance aerospace and Department of Defense applications, such as space exploration, satellite communications, and underwater vehicles, and applying them to mass market commercial applications, such as lithium-ion battery energy storage, electric vehicles, 5G, cloud computer infrastructure, consumer and industrial devices.
  • It is also applying its zero-vibration technology to fans in commercial markets which could be a large revenue opportunity.

Xlmedia (XLM) – Tuesday, Jul 2, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • XLMedia (XLM) has historically disappointed investors on AIM as a value trap
  • Potential catalyst for over 100% upside in next 12 months
  • Key factors in place for a turnaround, including cornerstone investor and focus on US gambling market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


AFT Pharmaceuticals – Maxigesic IV reaches the Chinese shores

By Edison Investment Research

AFT Pharmaceuticals has taken another major step in extending its international footprint, with the signing of an exclusive license agreement for Maxigesic IV in China, the second-largest pharma market globally after the US. The agreement has been signed with Xizang Weixinkang Pharmaceutical, a major hospitals injectables focused company, and includes an upfront payment of US$300k along with development and sales-related milestones and royalty payments. Partner Hyloris Pharmaceuticals is entitled to a minority share of the payment, which we believe will be 35%, in line with the deal structure with Hikma in the US. China is a key lever for AFT’s international growth efforts, and we expect Maxigesic IV to be AFT’s second product to be launched in the country, following the anticipated launch of Crystaderm in Q4 CY24.


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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Crisp: Up Is Soon The Only Way and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp: Up Is Soon The Only Way
  • Reawakening The Animal Spirits


Crypto Crisp: Up Is Soon The Only Way

By Mads Eberhardt

  • We have emphasized multiple times that we have been eagerly anticipating the fourth quarter of this year, driven by numerous factors that make us extremely bullish.
  • With September’s liquidity squeeze now behind us, we expect U.S. Dollar liquidity to rise significantly through the remainder of the year.
  • Additionally, there are several other strong tailwinds: robust seasonal trends, Chinese stimulus measures, the post-fourth Bitcoin halving phase—which historically delivers substantial returns—the possibility of positive focus on crypto during the U.S. presidential election, and a market that tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment, many of the reasons for which were discussed in Crypto Moves #42.

Reawakening The Animal Spirits

By Delphi Digital

  • Global liquidity trifecta: US, China, and Japan’s policy shifts hint at a bullish environment for risk assets, including crypto.
  • BTC’s trend reversal? Early signs of a market shift suggest a potential breakout as investor sentiment changes.
  • Solana ecosystem is gaining momentum—real-world applications and a booming DeFi landscape are setting the stage for a strong 2024.

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Daily Brief Macro: Week at a Glance – Squuuuuuuuuueeeeeeze! and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Week at a Glance – Squuuuuuuuuueeeeeeze!
  • Asia Economics: Despite Geopolitical Risks, Emerging Asia Is at an Upward Turning Point
  • Commodities Rip Higher on China Stimulus
  • CHINA: Why so Many Investors/Analysts Got It Wrong and What’s Really Happening
  • China’s Serial Rate Cuts: What Are Them and Are They Effective in Reviving the Falling Economy (2)
  • CX Daily: China’s Stimulus Bomb Sparks Optimism, But Economy May Still Struggle
  • EA: Disinflating Towards an October Cut
  • US: Benign Core PCE Provides Smooth Passage to Small, Steady Rate Cuts


Week at a Glance – Squuuuuuuuuueeeeeeze!

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Happy Monday, let’s dive into the most critical stuff we are on the look out for this week.
  • Morning moves: It seems like physical commodities markets are catching up to the China stimulus story from last week, in tandem with the Hang Seng.
  • Over the end of last, Japan’s elections pushed USD/JPY lower, leading investors to sell the Nikkei rather aggressively due to a clear hawkish expected lean from the new PM Ishiba.

Asia Economics: Despite Geopolitical Risks, Emerging Asia Is at an Upward Turning Point

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Economic policy in the US and China, the two most important economic partners for emerging Asia,  is turning more supportive of global growth.
  • Oil prices are also entering a period of “lower for longer”; Saudi Arabia’s signal of reversing its production cuts will exert downward pressure on oil prices, largely to Asia’s benefit.
  • The overall result of these developments is to open up more scope for policy loosening, strengthen export demand and encourage more investments, to emerging Asia’s benefit. 

Commodities Rip Higher on China Stimulus

By Money of Mine

  • Recent policy changes in China have sparked a surge in commodity prices and stock markets
  • China’s focus on stimulating the real economy over asset prices sets them apart from Western policies
  • Chinese government has implemented measures such as interest rate cuts and lower bank reserve requirements to boost liquidity and investment

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


CHINA: Why so Many Investors/Analysts Got It Wrong and What’s Really Happening

By David Mudd

  • HK/China stock markets are re-rating quickly sentiment became overly pessimistic.
  • A stock market bottom precedes a property market bottom by years.
  • China’s markets have languished due to the government’s focus on supply-side solutions.  That focus has now shifted to include demand-side stimulus efforts as the PBOC Put accelerates.

China’s Serial Rate Cuts: What Are Them and Are They Effective in Reviving the Falling Economy (2)

By Alex Ng

  • Our earlier articles state the natures and description of several monetary actions by PBOC last week, highlighting a possibility of stock rallly
  • This article on the other hand dicussess the economic benefits of the monetary policies, which are more relevant from the authority’s point of view.
  • For stock market still, we believe the RMB 800 billion fund, given a RMB 2-3 trillions daily transaction volume and 60% LTV leverage , has long been dumped into market.

CX Daily: China’s Stimulus Bomb Sparks Optimism, But Economy May Still Struggle

By Caixin Global

  • Stimulus / Cover Story: China’s stimulus bomb sparks optimism, but economy may still struggle
  • Asia New Vision Forum /Asia New Vision Forum: China expected to be world’s biggest economy by 2050, Thornton says
  • Political /: Ex-local lawmaker becomes latest official punished for his reading material

EA: Disinflating Towards an October Cut

By Phil Rush

  • Headline EA inflation disappointed consensus expectations by dropping another 0.4pp to 1.77% amid lower energy prices and stagnant industrial goods prices.
  • Although the outcome was within 1bps of our forecast, it has been grinding lower in recent weeks. The likely rebound above 2% looks increasingly small and fleeting.
  • The expected rebound restrained the ECB, so its diminishment while demand disappoints now makes an October rate cut likely in addition to the December move.

US: Benign Core PCE Provides Smooth Passage to Small, Steady Rate Cuts

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • Core PCE inflation was 2.7%YoY in Aug’24, too high to allow another 50bp cut in Nov’24, despite the fourth consecutive MoM (annualized) gain in core PCE of less than 2%.
  • The Jul’23-Feb’24 acceleration in base money (10.2%YoY in Feb’24) contributed crucially to the Jan-Apr’24 spike in core PCE. Slower base money, and steadily accelerating M2, made things better since May’24. 
  • Mild, steady acceleration in M2 (i.e., small rate cuts every 6 weeks) should allow core inflation to keep receding. Faster rate cuts are possible once inflation is genuinely at 2%YoY. 

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Daily Brief South Korea: Young Poong Precision, Young Poong, K Bank and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Choi Family Launches a Counter Tender Offer for Young Poong Precision
  • Choi Drops a Counter-Tender for Young Poong Precision at ₩30,000 Before the Market Bell Tomorrow
  • Young Poong Precision (036560 KS): Choi’s Opening Salvo
  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2024
  • K Bank IPO – Should Price Below Its Range


Choi Family Launches a Counter Tender Offer for Young Poong Precision

By Douglas Kim

  • Choi family has launched a counter tender offer for Young Poong Precision at the tender offer price of 30,000 won (20% higher than MBK’s 25,000 won tender offer price). 
  • The tender offer involves a plan to acquire 3,837,500 shares (24.36% of outstanding shares) of Young Poong Precision.
  • All eyes are on the court’s decision on the injunction application for ‘prohibition of acquisition of treasury stocks by Korea Zinc’, which is expected to be announced on 2 October.

Choi Drops a Counter-Tender for Young Poong Precision at ₩30,000 Before the Market Bell Tomorrow

By Sanghyun Park

  • Choi aims to acquire 3.84 million shares (24.36%) of Young Poong Precision at ₩30,000 each, with a tender period from October 2 to November 1, managed by Hana Securities.
  • Seoul Economic Daily may not be as prominent, but they reliably scoop this type of news, making it likely Choi will announce their counter-tender for Young Poong Precision tomorrow.
  • MBK targets the full 49.14% stake, while the Choi family seeks about half, creating proration risk, which may still make MBK’s lower offer more appealing to shareholders.

Young Poong Precision (036560 KS): Choi’s Opening Salvo

By David Blennerhassett

  • The Choi family have launched a Tender Offer to acquire 3.937mn shares (25%) of Young Poong Precision (036560 KS) (YPP) at ₩30,000/share,  20% above MBK/Young Poong (000670 KS)‘s revised terms.
  • YPP’s key attraction is its 1.85% stake in Korea Zinc (010130 KS), which is the ultimate prize in this tussle between the Choi and Jang families. 
  • Choi’s Offer runs from today (2nd October) to 21 October. There is no minimum acceptance threshold. If successful, the Choi’s stake increases to 60.45% from 35.45% currently.  

Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 4Q 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 4Q 2024.
  • Volatility has been high in the Korean stock market in the past several weeks resulting in some interesting widening of some gaps among numerous holdcos and opcos in Korea. 
  • Of the 38 pair trades, 19 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and the other 19 opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period. 

K Bank IPO – Should Price Below Its Range

By Sumeet Singh

  • K Bank (279570 KS) plans to raise up to US$740m in its upcoming South Korean IPO. 
  • K Bank is one of three Internet-only banks in Korea. It provides a full range of commercial banking products and services.
  • In our previous note, we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: AAC Technologies Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Monthly – September 2024 In Review – Lucror Analytics


Asia Monthly – September 2024 In Review – Lucror Analytics

By Felix Fischer

In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in September 2024. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan.

In addition, we summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on developments in the Asian corporate USD bond market.


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Daily Brief United States: Copper, Bitcoin, Tesla , Bitcoin Pro, Nasdaq-100 Stock Index, KULR Technology Group , CytoSorbents , Coterra Energy , IDEXX Laboratories and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Commodities Rip Higher on China Stimulus
  • Crypto Crisp: Up Is Soon The Only Way
  • Tesla’s Q3 2024 Earnings: Production Surge, China Growth, and FSD Innovations Await
  • Reawakening The Animal Spirits
  • Still No Decisive Breakout as SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; Ideal Time to Shift to Defensives
  • KULR Technology Group Inc.
  • KULR Technology Group Inc.
  • CTSO: CytoSorbents submits DrugSorb-ATR Marketing Application to the U.S. FDA. The company also provides Q3 2024 financial update.
  • Coterra Energy Inc: Strategic Resource Allocation Across Basins & Critical Growth Catalysts! – Major Drivers
  • IDEXX Laboratories Inc.: Expanding Diagnostic Offerings & Executing Global Expansion & Strategic Acquisitions! – Major Drivers


Commodities Rip Higher on China Stimulus

By Money of Mine

  • Recent policy changes in China have sparked a surge in commodity prices and stock markets
  • China’s focus on stimulating the real economy over asset prices sets them apart from Western policies
  • Chinese government has implemented measures such as interest rate cuts and lower bank reserve requirements to boost liquidity and investment

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Crypto Crisp: Up Is Soon The Only Way

By Mads Eberhardt

  • We have emphasized multiple times that we have been eagerly anticipating the fourth quarter of this year, driven by numerous factors that make us extremely bullish.
  • With September’s liquidity squeeze now behind us, we expect U.S. Dollar liquidity to rise significantly through the remainder of the year.
  • Additionally, there are several other strong tailwinds: robust seasonal trends, Chinese stimulus measures, the post-fourth Bitcoin halving phase—which historically delivers substantial returns—the possibility of positive focus on crypto during the U.S. presidential election, and a market that tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment, many of the reasons for which were discussed in Crypto Moves #42.

Tesla’s Q3 2024 Earnings: Production Surge, China Growth, and FSD Innovations Await

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Tesla aims for 462,000 deliveries in Q3 2024, with analysts predicting actual numbers could reach 470,000 units. This increase highlights strong demand, particularly in China.
  • Vehicle registrations in China rose nearly 20% QoQ, driven by the Model Y’s popularity. Despite expiring subsidies, Tesla expects Q3 deliveries to exceed its previous best quarter by 5%.
  • Tesla’s stock is up only 4.85% year-to-date, significantly lagging the S&P 500’s 21% rise. Factors include declining EV demand, price cuts affecting margins, and increased competition.

Reawakening The Animal Spirits

By Delphi Digital

  • Global liquidity trifecta: US, China, and Japan’s policy shifts hint at a bullish environment for risk assets, including crypto.
  • BTC’s trend reversal? Early signs of a market shift suggest a potential breakout as investor sentiment changes.
  • Solana ecosystem is gaining momentum—real-world applications and a booming DeFi landscape are setting the stage for a strong 2024.

Still No Decisive Breakout as SPX Tests 5783 Resistance; Ideal Time to Shift to Defensives

By Joe Jasper

  • $SPX remains below 5783, the upper-end of important target/resistance area we’ve discussed for a month+ (5670-5783). 5670 was prior all-time high set in July, while 5783 is 2% above 5670.
  • It’s hard to call it a “decisive” breakout if SPX isn’t even 2% above its prior high.  In 2007, SPX made a top after climbing 1-2% above its prior high.
  • The 2007 topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, with similar backdrops to today including new Fed cutting cycle, recession indicators going off, yield curve un-inverting, defensives outperforming

KULR Technology Group Inc.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • KULR Technology Group, Inc. develops and commercializes high-performance thermal management technologies for electronics, batteries, and other components across a range of applications.
  • Currently, it is focused on high performance aerospace and Department of Defense applications, such as space exploration, satellite communications, and underwater vehicles, and applying them to mass market commercial applications, such as lithium-ion battery energy storage, electric vehicles, 5G, cloud computer infrastructure, consumer and industrial devices.
  • It is also applying its zero-vibration technology to fans in commercial markets which could be a large revenue opportunity.

KULR Technology Group Inc.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • KULR Technology Group, Inc. develops and commercializes high-performance thermal management technologies for electronics, batteries, and other components across a range of applications.
  • Currently, it is focused on high performance aerospace and Department of Defense applications, such as space exploration, satellite communications, and underwater vehicles, and applying them to mass market commercial applications, such as lithium-ion battery energy storage, electric vehicles, 5G, cloud computer infrastructure, consumer and industrial devices.
  • It is also applying its zero-vibration technology to fans in commercial markets which could be a large revenue opportunity.

CTSO: CytoSorbents submits DrugSorb-ATR Marketing Application to the U.S. FDA. The company also provides Q3 2024 financial update.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • CytoSorbents is commercializing its E.U. approved CytoSorb blood purification technology to treat life-threatening conditions in the intensive care unit and cardiac surgery.
  • First half 2024 product sales improved 12% from last year while product gross margins rose to 75%.
  • The company also seeks U.S. and Canadian approval of a second product, DrugSorb-ATR, to reduce perioperative bleeding risk in patients on blood thinners during cardiac surgery.

Coterra Energy Inc: Strategic Resource Allocation Across Basins & Critical Growth Catalysts! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Coterra Energy held its 2024 Earnings Call, reporting robust results for the second quarter.
  • The company highlighted strong financial performance alongside diligent execution of operational strategies, despite facing a 42% drop in realized natural gas prices between Q1 and Q2 2024.
  • Ensuing from this price drop, revenue only saw a modest 12% decline, illustrating Coterra Energy’s resilience and strong market positioning.

IDEXX Laboratories Inc.: Expanding Diagnostic Offerings & Executing Global Expansion & Strategic Acquisitions! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • IDEXX Laboratories recently reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2024.
  • The company saw organic revenue growth of 7%, driven by a 7% increase in Companion Animal Group (CAG) Diagnostic recurring revenues and a 10% growth in its water business.
  • Despite facing macroeconomic and sector-specific challenges, including a 2% decline in U.S. same-store clinical visit growth, IDEXX demonstrated resilience by leveraging solid execution strategies such as high premium instrument placements and gains in veterinary software and diagnostic imaging revenues.

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group Holding , Longfor Properties, China Dongxiang, AAC Technologies Holdings, Tong Ren Tang Technologies Co, Ltd., UMP Healthcare and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: $800m Round-Trip Trade
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: High & Low Probability Changes
  • China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Another Play on the Market Rally
  • Asia Monthly – September 2024 In Review – Lucror Analytics
  • Tong Ren Tang Technologies (1666.HK) – Undervalued; Performance Will Rebound After a Brief Headwind
  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK) FY24 Results and Concall: 7x FY25PE,1.2x EV-EBITDA and 9% Dividend Yield


HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: $800m Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) ended on 30 September.
  • We do not forecast any constituent changes for the index. Capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.15% and a round-trip trade of HK$6.1bn (US$785m).
  • If any stocks have outsized moves on expectations of being added to or deleted from the index, there could be opportunities to enter trades.

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: High & Low Probability Changes

By Brian Freitas


China Dongxiang (3818 HK): Another Play on the Market Rally

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Dongxiang (3818 HK) stands on a discount of 82.1% to NAV after factoring in the recent market rally, not limiting to its Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) holdings.
  • Its listed equities may have gained Rmb314m, but the HK$41m market capitalisation growth has not reflected this. The gains on its unlisted investments have not been included yet.  
  • CNDX is now more likely to have a positive swing in the bottom line in FY25. Its tiny sportswear business has also witnessed a sequential moderation in sales decline. 

Asia Monthly – September 2024 In Review – Lucror Analytics

By Felix Fischer

In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in September 2024. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan.

In addition, we summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on developments in the Asian corporate USD bond market.


Tong Ren Tang Technologies (1666.HK) – Undervalued; Performance Will Rebound After a Brief Headwind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Considering 23H1 high base, it can be understood that 24H1 achieved a low single-digit growth. If excluding gain on disposal of subsidiaries, net profit in 24H1 would have negative growth.
  • Mainland China contributed about 90% of total revenue, but an imminent risk is VBP, which will pose a challenge to the pricing autonomy of Tong Ren Tang’s OTC TCM drugs. 
  • After absorbing the high base impact of 2023 this year, performance growth would return to double digits in 2025. Tong Ren Tang is undervalued. Reasonable valuation is P/E of 15.

UMP Healthcare (722 HK) FY24 Results and Concall: 7x FY25PE,1.2x EV-EBITDA and 9% Dividend Yield

By Sameer Taneja

  • UMP Healthcare (722 HK) reported a tepid FY24 owing to weak sentiment in HK. Revenues were up 3% YoY; profits were down 27% YoY ( adj profits -34% YoY). 
  • The environment in HK is gradually improving, and we believe there is a steady recovery on the horizon for the company.
  • The stock trades at 7x FY25 PE and more than 58% of its market cap in net cash, with a yield trending towards 9%. 

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Daily Brief India: AAC Technologies Holdings, Casagrand Premier Builder Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Monthly – September 2024 In Review – Lucror Analytics
  • Casagrand Premier Builder Pre-IPO Tearsheet


Asia Monthly – September 2024 In Review – Lucror Analytics

By Felix Fischer

In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in September 2024. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan.

In addition, we summarise the Top/Bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on developments in the Asian corporate USD bond market.


Casagrand Premier Builder Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Casagrand Premier Builder Ltd (0949880D IN) is looking to raise about US$131m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by JM Fin and Motilal Oswal.
  • Casagrand Premier Builder is a residential developer in India. It constructs apartments and independent villas spanning luxury, mid-end and affordable categories in the states of Karnataka, Telangana and Tamil Nadu.
  • According to CBRE, it was the largest residential developer in Chennai with ~24% share in terms of launches and ~20% in terms of demand during 1st Jan’17 to 31st Mar’24.

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Daily Brief Japan: Fast Retailing, Tokyo Metro, Aica Kogyo, Rigaku Holdings, Daiseki Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping…. Again…
  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Aica Kogyo (4206) – Small Offering Chips Away At Cross-Holdings
  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case
  • Daiseki Co Ltd (9793 JP): 1H FY02/25 flash update


Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping…. Again…

By Travis Lundy

  • At end-September, the Nikkei 225 semi-annual review imposed a “cap” on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) in the Average, applying a 0.9 coefficient to the Price Adjustment Factor.
  • At its current weight, Fast Retailing will be capped again in March 2025. If the stock outperforms Nikkei 225 by another 3% before 31 January 2025, it could be double-capped.
  • And an additional 16% would mean ¥1.1trln of sales in March. But like last time, this is a rubber band which stretches. Too far, and selling pressure is obvious.

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Aica Kogyo (4206) – Small Offering Chips Away At Cross-Holdings

By Travis Lundy

  • On Monday, 30 September, shareholders of US$1.4bn market cap chemicals and housing materials supplier Aica Kogyo (4206 JP) announced a Secondary Share Sale. It’s small at 2% of market cap.
  • The Offering is 2.1mm shares including greenshoe. The company also raised its H1 dividend guidance slightly (¥53/share to ¥56/share) and announced a buyback which should cover 57% of the offering.
  • It’s a small deal. There are a lot more cross-holdings behind that but the company is cash-rich and the company is very cheap/underlevered on an LBO basis.

Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is Japan’s leading manufacturer of X-ray analysis, measurement and testing instruments. It is seeking to raise up to US$760 million. 
  • In Japan, Rigaku’s XRD (X-ray diffraction) has a high market share of 75%. Around 70% of its revenue is derived from customers outside Japan.   
  • The bull case rests on high customer switching costs, peer-leading revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, FCF generation, and low leverage.

Daiseki Co Ltd (9793 JP): 1H FY02/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Consolidated 1H sales decreased by 8.3% YoY to JPY32.8bn, meeting the company’s target of JPY32.7bn.
  • Consolidated operating profit for 1H decreased by 5.5% YoY to JPY7.3bn, exceeding the target of JPY6.7bn.
  • Net income attributable to owners of the parent increased by 2.1% YoY to JPY4.9bn, surpassing company forecasts.

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Most Read: T Gaia Corp, Fast Retailing, Alibaba Group Holding , Tokyo Metro, Young Poong Precision, Longfor Properties, Namoi Cotton Co Operative, Rigaku Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • T-Gaia (3738 JP) – Potential Premium Takeout Story Turns To An Ugly Takeunder
  • Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping…. Again…
  • HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: $800m Round-Trip Trade
  • Tokyo Metro IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Choi Family Launches a Counter Tender Offer for Young Poong Precision
  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: High & Low Probability Changes
  • Choi Drops a Counter-Tender for Young Poong Precision at ₩30,000 Before the Market Bell Tomorrow
  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights
  • Namoi Cotton (NAM AU): Well Played LDC
  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case


T-Gaia (3738 JP) – Potential Premium Takeout Story Turns To An Ugly Takeunder

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, just before the close, the Nikkei put out a scoop that Bain would buy T Gaia Corp (3738 JP) for ¥140bn. Sounds big. It was a 30% discount.
  • There is a three Tender Offer process whereby minorities, who could be squeezed out regardless, are offered the opportunity to block the deal by not tendering at ¥2,670.
  • This not-quite “majority of minority” of the super-minority is an interesting governance condition established by the Special Committee. It bears some study.

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Considering Fast Retailing Capping…. Again…

By Travis Lundy

  • At end-September, the Nikkei 225 semi-annual review imposed a “cap” on Fast Retailing (9983 JP) in the Average, applying a 0.9 coefficient to the Price Adjustment Factor.
  • At its current weight, Fast Retailing will be capped again in March 2025. If the stock outperforms Nikkei 225 by another 3% before 31 January 2025, it could be double-capped.
  • And an additional 16% would mean ¥1.1trln of sales in March. But like last time, this is a rubber band which stretches. Too far, and selling pressure is obvious.

HSTECH Index Rebalance Preview: $800m Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the December rebalance of the Hang Seng TECH Index (HSTECH INDEX) ended on 30 September.
  • We do not forecast any constituent changes for the index. Capping changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 2.15% and a round-trip trade of HK$6.1bn (US$785m).
  • If any stocks have outsized moves on expectations of being added to or deleted from the index, there could be opportunities to enter trades.

Tokyo Metro IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)‘s shareholders aim to raise up to US$2.3bn in its Japan IPO.
  • Tokyo Metro (TKM) is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines with a total of 180 stations.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

Choi Family Launches a Counter Tender Offer for Young Poong Precision

By Douglas Kim

  • Choi family has launched a counter tender offer for Young Poong Precision at the tender offer price of 30,000 won (20% higher than MBK’s 25,000 won tender offer price). 
  • The tender offer involves a plan to acquire 3,837,500 shares (24.36% of outstanding shares) of Young Poong Precision.
  • All eyes are on the court’s decision on the injunction application for ‘prohibition of acquisition of treasury stocks by Korea Zinc’, which is expected to be announced on 2 October.

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: High & Low Probability Changes

By Brian Freitas


Choi Drops a Counter-Tender for Young Poong Precision at ₩30,000 Before the Market Bell Tomorrow

By Sanghyun Park

  • Choi aims to acquire 3.84 million shares (24.36%) of Young Poong Precision at ₩30,000 each, with a tender period from October 2 to November 1, managed by Hana Securities.
  • Seoul Economic Daily may not be as prominent, but they reliably scoop this type of news, making it likely Choi will announce their counter-tender for Young Poong Precision tomorrow.
  • MBK targets the full 49.14% stake, while the Choi family seeks about half, creating proration risk, which may still make MBK’s lower offer more appealing to shareholders.

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George


Namoi Cotton (NAM AU): Well Played LDC

By David Blennerhassett

  • A$0.77/Share. That’s Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC)’s revised unconditional bid. Plus it now holds 47.66% after Samuel Terry Asset Management, Namoi’s largest shareholder, tendered into the revised term.
  • Expect Namoi Cotton Co Operative (NAM AU)‘s board to shortly back LDC’s Offer. LDC’s Offer is $0.02/share above Olam Agri’s conditional bid.
  • After LDC first approached Namoi in November last year, this is now done. Expect Olam to tender its stake, and fold its tent. 

Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) is Japan’s leading manufacturer of X-ray analysis, measurement and testing instruments. It is seeking to raise up to US$760 million. 
  • In Japan, Rigaku’s XRD (X-ray diffraction) has a high market share of 75%. Around 70% of its revenue is derived from customers outside Japan.   
  • The bull case rests on high customer switching costs, peer-leading revenue growth, top-quartile profitability, FCF generation, and low leverage.

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