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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Jan 17
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Closes Lower as Tech Stocks Slide and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Closes Lower as Tech Stocks Slide
  • Japan Morning Connection: US Semi-Capex Names Higher on TSMC Numbers…more for JP Also?
  • Takashimaya to Close Sakai Store, Meitetsu Nagoya Future in Doubt
  • Singapore Market Roundup (16-Jan-2025): RHB predicts strong 1HFY2025 earnings growth for SGX.
  • Tech Talk: Next-Gen Data Centers Green and Crypto Data Centers
  • #87 India Insight: China Export Halt; GTRI Suggests Tariff Cuts; Fintech Funding Drops 33%

Ohayo Japan | Wall Street Closes Lower as Tech Stocks Slide

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nasdaq slid 0.9%, with large-cap tech stocks like Nvidia and Tesla underperforming
  • Nintendo has unveiled the Switch 2, the successor to its highly successful console. The new device features a larger screen
  • Tokyo Gas will sell assets, including real estate, to fund growth investments and boost shareholder value, following activist pressure

Japan Morning Connection: US Semi-Capex Names Higher on TSMC Numbers…more for JP Also?

By Andrew Jackson

  • Japan saw big gains for SPE in the last 15 mins of trading on the TSMC capex outlook which should continue today.
  • Luxury names got a shot in the arm from Richemont numbers overnight so likes of Shiseido and Kose  may see a knee jerk higher.
  • Nintendo looks to have largely priced in the Switch 2, but upside remains for component makers.

Takashimaya to Close Sakai Store, Meitetsu Nagoya Future in Doubt

By Michael Causton

  • Despite the tourist boom, sales to locals remain less consistent, with sales actually falling in October and less than stellar results before then. 
  • So more department stores will close this year as owners review aging buildings and weigh whether costs will exceed profit potential longer-term.
  • Even in central Nagoya, plans for major redevelopment of the station area mean Meitetsu Department Store is likely to close. 

Singapore Market Roundup (16-Jan-2025): RHB predicts strong 1HFY2025 earnings growth for SGX.

By Singapore Market Roundup

  • RHB predicts strong earnings growth for SGX in 1HFY2025 with interim DPS of 17.5 cents, indicating positive performance ahead.
  • DBS issues special dividend as UOB plans share buyback, showcasing strong financial health and confidence in future prospects.
  • CGSI forecasts DBS’s 4QFY2024 net profit at $2.7 billion and quarterly dividend rising to 60 cents, suggesting continued profitability.

Tech Talk: Next-Gen Data Centers Green and Crypto Data Centers

By Water Tower Research

  • Computing, and thus data centers, are becoming more critical to nearly every business (thank AI).
  • In this edition of Tech Talk, we focus on green and crypto data centers, highlighting their specific needs, characteristics, market dynamics, and leading vendors.
  • Simply put, a green data center uses many of the standard computer systems and networking equipment of other data centers, but with a strong emphasis on minimizing environmental impact. 

#87 India Insight: China Export Halt; GTRI Suggests Tariff Cuts; Fintech Funding Drops 33%

By Sudarshan Bhandari

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Jan 17
0

Daily Brief Credit: EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

EM Spreads – Weekly News & Views

By Leandro Gubler

  • The LatAm Corporate Index widened by 4 bps to 317 bps in the week ended Wednesday, January 15, 2025. 
  • YPF Priced $1.1bn Bond Due 2034 at 8.5% Yield. PEMEX Commits to Settling Supplier Debts by March
  • Moody’s Upgrades Ratings of Argentine Non-Financial Companies Following Country Ceiling Adjustment

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Jan 17
0

Daily Brief ECM: Chongqing Terminus Smart Technology Pre-IPO: Deteriorating Revenue and Losing Market Share and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Chongqing Terminus Smart Technology Pre-IPO: Deteriorating Revenue and Losing Market Share
  • Smithfield Foods (SFD) : Peeking at the Prospectus of an Upcoming Q1 IPO
  • Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation
  • LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Not All Categories Have Been Growing
  • Geek+ IPO Valuation Analysis: Exit Valuation Would Be Significantly Above Last Private Round of ~$2B
  • Venture Global (VG): Rich Valuation Marks Questions About Being Already Priced for Perfection
  • Beta Bionic, Inc. (BBNX) – Medical Device Company Targeting the Insulin Market Prepares for Q1 IPO

Chongqing Terminus Smart Technology Pre-IPO: Deteriorating Revenue and Losing Market Share

By Nicholas Tan

  • Chongqing Terminus (2471080D CH) is looking to raise about US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • It operates in China’s public realm AIoT (Artificial Intelligence of Things) industry.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Smithfield Foods (SFD) : Peeking at the Prospectus of an Upcoming Q1 IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • American food giant with $14 billion in sales to go public in Q1
  • Company is a spin-off from WH Group which acquired Smithfield in 2013
  • Breaking down key points of the initial prospectus which was filed  on January 6th

Guming Holdings (Goodme) Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison & Thoughts on Valuation

By Clarence Chu

  • Guming Holdings (GUM HK) (Guming) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Guming Holdings (Guming) sells freshly-made beverages in China. Guming focuses on the mid-priced freshly-made tea beverage market with product prices typically ranging between RMB10-18.
  • In our earlier notes, we had looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we undertake a peer comparison and discuss our thoughts on valuation.

LG Electronics India Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Not All Categories Have Been Growing

By Sumeet Singh

  • LG Electronics (066570 KS) is looking to raise US$1.5bn+ via part-selling its stake in LG Electronics India.
  • LG Electronics India (LGEI) was the market leader in India in major home appliances and consumer electronics (excluding mobile phones) in terms of volume in 1Q25, as per Redseer Report.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Geek+ IPO Valuation Analysis: Exit Valuation Would Be Significantly Above Last Private Round of ~$2B

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Geek+, a Beijing-based warehouse robot maker, filed to list IPO on Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The AI & robotics company plans to raise up to $200M.
  • Their last round was a $208M Series E1 in August 2022 that was led by Vertex Growth Fund, Intel Capital and B Capital China at a ~$2B post-money valuation.
  • Geek+ is growing faster than Doosan Robotics, UBTech Robotics and Shenzhen Dobot. The company will likely trade above their last private round valuation of ~$2B in August of 2022.

Venture Global (VG): Rich Valuation Marks Questions About Being Already Priced for Perfection

By IPO Boutique

  • Largest Cash Raise for a company since July 2024 marking important event for Equity Capital Markets to start the calendar year
  • Rising and volatile natural gas prices combined with rich valuation nearly prices company to perfection
  • Deal color for potential price sensitive IPOs is crucial in determining near-term performance

Beta Bionic, Inc. (BBNX) – Medical Device Company Targeting the Insulin Market Prepares for Q1 IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • ILet Bionic Pancreas Device autonomously determine every insulin dose without requiring a user to count carbohydrate intake
  • Revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 was $44.7 million, more than 3.5x that of their annual revenue of $12.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2023.
  • We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) in the next week for a late January / early February debut.

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Jan 17
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Henlius (2696 HK): So and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 25: Large Flows; Some Inflow Names Could Outperform Index
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 25: Great Momentum for the Exp ADDs Vs Exp DELs Trade
  • Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Lau’s Scheme – The Premium Is Still Wrong. And Now Final
  • Key Info We Need to Know About Boosting Predictability of Dividend Record Dates in Korea
  • Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau Bumps, but the Offer Remains Light
  • Align Partners Goes Activist on Coway
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar 25: Mega Addition for Coke & Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely
  • Smart Share Global’s Privatization Proposal: Evaluating the 20% Spread and Potential Offer Increase
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January’25 Report

Henlius (2696 HK): So, When Was The Last Time A PE/VC Outfit Blocked A Deal?

By David Blennerhassett

  • You might have to go all the back to Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)‘s 2012/2013 unconditional cash offer, which was ostensibly blocked by First Eagle AND Elliott Advisors.
  • Otherwise, it’s slim pickings. Past Schemes or Tender Offers arguably failed as minorities were simply not supportive. There are exceptions, like Soho China (410 HK) and TCM (570 HK)
  • IF LVC wish to remain active in this space/region, they appear to be going about it in a counterproductive way. I still don’t understand why they would want to block.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Jun 25: Large Flows; Some Inflow Names Could Outperform Index

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500 names.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in June 2025.
  • Currently, we see 6 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 300 index and 50 ADDs/DELs for the CSI 500 index.

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext & ChiNext 50 Jun 25: Great Momentum for the Exp ADDs Vs Exp DELs Trade

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • We see 10 changes for the ChiNext index and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 index in the next index rebal event. Combined it is about US$1bn to trade one-way.

Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Lau’s Scheme – The Premium Is Still Wrong. And Now Final

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 6th December 2024, Lifestyle China (2136 HK), a PRC department store operator, announced a Scheme from Thomas Lau, its chairman/CEO and major shareholder (74.91%, including concert parties).
  • The HK$0.913 Offer price was miserly 21.7% premium to last close. But not declared final. 
  • The Offer deserved a bump, and Lau has obliged. However, the revised HK$0.98/share bid, a 30.6% premium to undisturbed, remains underwhelming. Lau has declared terms final.

Key Info We Need to Know About Boosting Predictability of Dividend Record Dates in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Major banks, Hyundai Motor, POSCO Holdings, and companies like HMM, which updated their articles, will likely set dividend record dates pre-AGM in the mid-to-late February window.
  • Track backwardation in March futures for mispricings. Companies will likely follow last year’s playbook: AGM in mid-to-late March, record date 3–4 weeks prior, announcement 2 weeks ahead.
  • Opportunity lies in the March futures basis spread between February contract and record date announcement. Watch those for potential dividend hikes and futures mispricing ahead.

Lifestyle China (2136 HK): Thomas Lau Bumps, but the Offer Remains Light

By Arun George

  • Lifestyle China (2136 HK) disclosed a revised offer from Mr Thomas Lau at HK$0.98 per share, a 7.3% premium to the previous HK$0.913 offer. The offer has been declared final. 
  • The bump was unsurprising. Crucially, the shares have traded above the revised offer on 20 of the 25 trading days since the previous offer was announced. 
  • The revised offer remains light, and minorities remain unimpressed. The high AGM minority participation rates remain a vote risk. Head for the exit as the shares are trading at terms. 

Align Partners Goes Activist on Coway

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 16 January, it was reported that Align Partners started to go activist on Coway Co Ltd (021240 KS).
  • Align Partners sent a public letter to Coway demanding improvements to shareholder returns and measures to enhance the independence of the board of directors.
  • The combination of higher shareholder returns, low valuations, and Align Partners putting further activist pressure are likely to lead to continued outperformance of Coway relative to KOSPI this year. 

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar 25: Mega Addition for Coke & Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
  • We see up to four M&A-related intra-review changes in the run up to the March 2025 review.
  • Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and one change for the F250 index during the March 2025 rebalance. 

Smart Share Global’s Privatization Proposal: Evaluating the 20% Spread and Potential Offer Increase

By Dalius Tauraitis

  • Smart Share Global received a non-binding privatization proposal at $1.25/ADS, with a 20% spread after fees.
  • The buyer group holds 16% economic interest and 64% voting power; Trustar Capital’s involvement signals deal commitment.
  • EM’s power bank rental business is breakeven; cashflow positive mainly due to $440m cash pile interest income.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January’25 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened, 11 tightened) with few changes in the trends.
  • Telecom Italia savers are trading at 18.5% premium to ords; Handelsbanken B at 32.4% premium to A. The discount of Grifols B has tightened, some await a comeback from Brookfield. 
  • Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, Roche, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.

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Jan 17
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth
  • TSMC Results / Guidance Beat. 2025 Capex and AI Revenue up Strongly.
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Results and 1Q25 Guidance; CoWoS Grows 45% CAGR; Setup of 10 Fabs WW.
  • Forensic Analysis: Kalyan Jewellers on Allegations and Rumours ~ Cause And Reality
  • Legend Biotech Surges Amid Takeover Speculation—What’s Next for CARVYKTI?
  • Estée Lauder: Activist Buzz & Takeover Speculations – What’s Next For The Cosmetics Giant?
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (16-Jan-2025): Scape secures $434M from Korea’s NPS.
  • The Beat Ideas: Natco Pharma, The Cheapest Pharma Stock
  • Wintermar Offshore Marine (WINS IJ) – Well-Positioned for the Upcycle
  • Toyota’s EV Woes: Struggling To Find The Fast Lane In Electric Mobility

TSMC 4Q24 Results Signal Multi-Year Market Share Gains; Margin Strength; Sustainable Industry Growth

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC 4Q24 Gross Margin Comes In At High End of Range; Profit +57% YoY
  • TSMC’s Latest Strong Capex Guidance is Good News for Industry Sentiment
  • Long-Term Gross Margins — Will Recently High Gross Margins Become a “New Normal”?

TSMC Results / Guidance Beat. 2025 Capex and AI Revenue up Strongly.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • 4Q24 beat Consensus by ~4%, 1Q25 guidance ~7% above Consensus at OP level.
  • 2025 revenue up mid-20%. AI revenues will double or more depending on capacity bottlenecks (2023 5%, 2024 15% of total revenues). 2025 Capex US$40bn, from 2024 30bn. 
  • The stock is trading at 18.8x 2025 and 15.8x 2026 Consensus EPS.  This is cheap for the ~25% growth outlook over 2025-26.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): 4Q24 Results and 1Q25 Guidance; CoWoS Grows 45% CAGR; Setup of 10 Fabs WW.

By Patrick Liao

  • Revenue reached USD$26.88 billion (compared to guidance of 26.1-26.9 billion USD) / NTD$868.46 billion  (+14.3% QoQ, +38.8% YoY); Gross margin at 59%,within the guided range of 57-59%.
  • Revenue expected to be in the range of USD$25-25.8 billion (-5.5% QoQ) impacted by seasonal factors, offset by AI demand. Gross margin: 57-59%.   
  • AI revenue is expected to double in 2025. With the advancement of AI technologies, the company anticipates mid-40s CAGR for AI accelerators within a five-year period (2024-2029),

Forensic Analysis: Kalyan Jewellers on Allegations and Rumours ~ Cause And Reality

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Steep decline in the stock price triggered a wave of speculation and rumours, further fueling the negative sentiment surrounding Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN).
  • The rumours ranged from serious allegations of inventory overvaluation and IT raids to concerns about changes in franchisee agreements and even accusations of bribery.
  • While Kalyan Jewellers (KALYANKJ IN) has dismissed the overvaluation allegations, its inventory turnover ratio (ITR) has consistently lagged behind the industry leader Titan Co Ltd (TTAN IN) .

Legend Biotech Surges Amid Takeover Speculation—What’s Next for CARVYKTI?

By Baptista Research

  • Legend Biotech has been making headlines with its breakthrough CAR-T therapy, CARVYKTI, which has revolutionized the treatment of multiple myeloma.
  • This pioneering therapy, co commercialized with Johnson & Johnson, has achieved record-setting launches and boasts a significant survival benefit over standard treatments.
  • The company’s robust clinical pipeline, recent partnerships, and aggressive manufacturing expansions signal strong growth potential.

Estée Lauder: Activist Buzz & Takeover Speculations – What’s Next For The Cosmetics Giant?

By Baptista Research

  • Estée Lauder Companies, a titan in the global cosmetics industry, has recently found itself at the epicenter of takeover and activist speculation.
  • Reports have reignited discussions about potential acquisition interest and the involvement of activist investors.
  • Betaville’s “uncooked” alert suggested renewed whispers of a takeover, while past rumors linked activist investor Nelson Peltz to Estée Lauder, although significant hurdles persist given the family’s control over the company.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (16-Jan-2025): Scape secures $434M from Korea’s NPS.

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Scape, a living platform, receives a significant investment of $434 million from Korea’s NPS, boosting its growth and expansion.
  • Ho Bee Land makes a competitive bid of $242 million for an Australian builder, directly challenging Proprium Capital in the real estate market.
  • Korea’s NPS joins forces with Almanac Realty in a $800 million real estate joint venture, solidifying their presence in the industry.

The Beat Ideas: Natco Pharma, The Cheapest Pharma Stock

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Natco Pharma (NTCPH IN) is pivoting toward niche, high-value generics like Revlimid and Semaglutide, leveraging robust R&D, strategic acquisitions, and geographic expansions for long-term market leadership.
  • This approach combats conventional generic pricing pressures, delivers stronger profit margins, and positions Natco for sustainable, innovation-driven success in increasingly competitive regulated markets.
  • Natco’s willingness to tackle complex molecules and patent challenges demonstrates resilience, signaling a more diversified pipeline, prudent capital use, and potential for robust shareholder returns.

Wintermar Offshore Marine (WINS IJ) – Well-Positioned for the Upcycle

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Wintermar Offshore Marine has seen a distinct turnaround in its fortunes over the last two years and is now well-positioned to benefit from an upcycle in the Offshore Services space. 
  • Charter rates have started to move up in an environment with low vessel supply, especially in the high-tier space where Wintermar has most exposure with new vessels being added. 
  • Wintermar has net cash, putting it in a strong position to increase its fleet into the upcycle driven by increased offshore exploration in Southeast Asia. Valuations remain attractive.

Toyota’s EV Woes: Struggling To Find The Fast Lane In Electric Mobility

By Baptista Research

  • Toyota Motor Corporation, the world’s largest automaker by production volume, finds itself at a critical juncture in the global automotive industry.
  • Despite a commendable first-half operating income of ¥2.464 trillion for fiscal 2025 and a full-year forecast of ¥4.3 trillion, the company’s electrification strategy—or lack thereof—remains a contentious issue.
  • While Toyota has mastered the art of hybrid and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, it continues to lag significantly behind competitors like Tesla and BYD in the electric vehicle (EV) space.

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Jan 17
0

Daily Brief Macro: Korea: Policy Rate Held At 3.0% (Consensus 2.75%) in Jan-25 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea: Policy Rate Held At 3.0% (Consensus 2.75%) in Jan-25
  • UK: GDP Scrapes Statistical Bottom
  • Eurozone Economy: Quarterly Macro Note – December 30, 2024

Korea: Policy Rate Held At 3.0% (Consensus 2.75%) in Jan-25

By Heteronomics AI

  • The Bank of Korea maintained its base interest rate at 3.00%, defying market expectations of a 25bp cut, citing stabilising inflation and heightened risks from domestic political instability and exchange rate volatility.
  • Domestic economic recovery remains fragile, with weak consumption and investment trends, while external challenges, including US protectionist policies and strong dollar dynamics, further constrain growth prospects, projected at 1.9% for 2025.
  • Future rate cuts will depend on balancing inflationary stability, financial risks, and economic uncertainties, with the Bank signalling a cautious approach to monetary easing amid volatile domestic and international conditions.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

UK: GDP Scrapes Statistical Bottom

By Phil Rush

  • UK GDP disappointed the consensus again by only rebounding 0.1% m-o-m in November, continuing the stagnation since the election was called and risking a Q4 contraction.
  • The services PMI’s December upturn suggests the recovery could extend. That would also be consistent with residual seasonality, which has been closely followed in 2024.
  • Recent weakness will help the BoE cut again in February. Reversing this dynamic could make it the last, but we expect another in May before hikes return in 2026.

Eurozone Economy: Quarterly Macro Note – December 30, 2024

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • The Euro area economy is approaching the end of the year on a subdued note and facing weakened momentum.
  • Surveys indicate modest economic activity with recent Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) providing limited optimism through only slight improvements in the composite index.
  • Both Germany and France continue to face significant challenges, primarily driven by persistent weaknesses in the manufacturing sector. 

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Jan 17
0

Daily Brief Australia: Wisetech Global and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Wisetech Global Ltd : Valuation Summary – December 13, 2024

Wisetech Global Ltd : Valuation Summary – December 13, 2024

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • To establish a comparable universe we benchmarked and divided into tiers the 25 most comparable companies after a preliminary screen of over 2,000 technology listed companies.
  • To derive reliable forecast assumptions, we conducted ratios trend analysis (using income statement ratios, balance sheet common size analysis, liquidity ratio and operating statistics, leverage ratios, and additional profitability ratios) as well as a comparative ratio analysis (the same ratio analysis as per above for each company in the peer group, as presented below), which allowed us to develop multiple forecast scenarios and sense check the forecasted financials.

  • For the purpose of the final recommendation we used the “Upside” scenario, to show that even with optimistic forecasting assumptions, fundamentals fail to justify the current market price. 

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Jan 17
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Hyundai Motor, Coway Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Key Info We Need to Know About Boosting Predictability of Dividend Record Dates in Korea
  • Align Partners Goes Activist on Coway

Key Info We Need to Know About Boosting Predictability of Dividend Record Dates in Korea

By Sanghyun Park

  • Major banks, Hyundai Motor, POSCO Holdings, and companies like HMM, which updated their articles, will likely set dividend record dates pre-AGM in the mid-to-late February window.
  • Track backwardation in March futures for mispricings. Companies will likely follow last year’s playbook: AGM in mid-to-late March, record date 3–4 weeks prior, announcement 2 weeks ahead.
  • Opportunity lies in the March futures basis spread between February contract and record date announcement. Watch those for potential dividend hikes and futures mispricing ahead.

Align Partners Goes Activist on Coway

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 16 January, it was reported that Align Partners started to go activist on Coway Co Ltd (021240 KS).
  • Align Partners sent a public letter to Coway demanding improvements to shareholder returns and measures to enhance the independence of the board of directors.
  • The combination of higher shareholder returns, low valuations, and Align Partners putting further activist pressure are likely to lead to continued outperformance of Coway relative to KOSPI this year. 

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Jan 17
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Wintermar Offshore Marine and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Wintermar Offshore Marine (WINS IJ) – Well-Positioned for the Upcycle

Wintermar Offshore Marine (WINS IJ) – Well-Positioned for the Upcycle

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Wintermar Offshore Marine has seen a distinct turnaround in its fortunes over the last two years and is now well-positioned to benefit from an upcycle in the Offshore Services space. 
  • Charter rates have started to move up in an environment with low vessel supply, especially in the high-tier space where Wintermar has most exposure with new vessels being added. 
  • Wintermar has net cash, putting it in a strong position to increase its fleet into the upcycle driven by increased offshore exploration in Southeast Asia. Valuations remain attractive.

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Jan 17
0

Daily Brief United States: Estee Lauder Companies Cl A, Roche Holding , Smithfield Foods, Halliburton Co, Venture Global LNG, Pfizer Inc, JPMorgan Chase & Co, Beta Bionic, Schlumberger Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Estée Lauder: Activist Buzz & Takeover Speculations – What’s Next For The Cosmetics Giant?
  • Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January’25 Report
  • Smithfield Foods (SFD) : Peeking at the Prospectus of an Upcoming Q1 IPO
  • [Earnings Preview] Halliburton Expected to Post Subdued Q4 Results on Tepid Upstream Activity
  • Venture Global (VG): Rich Valuation Marks Questions About Being Already Priced for Perfection
  • PFIZER INC. Equity Research Flash Note – December 13, 2024
  • JPM – 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR
  • Beta Bionic, Inc. (BBNX) – Medical Device Company Targeting the Insulin Market Prepares for Q1 IPO
  • [Pre Earnings Options Flash] Schlumberger’s OI PCR Indicates Neutral Sentiment Ahead of Q4 Results

Estée Lauder: Activist Buzz & Takeover Speculations – What’s Next For The Cosmetics Giant?

By Baptista Research

  • Estée Lauder Companies, a titan in the global cosmetics industry, has recently found itself at the epicenter of takeover and activist speculation.
  • Reports have reignited discussions about potential acquisition interest and the involvement of activist investors.
  • Betaville’s “uncooked” alert suggested renewed whispers of a takeover, while past rumors linked activist investor Nelson Peltz to Estée Lauder, although significant hurdles persist given the family’s control over the company.

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: January’25 Report

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Since mid-December, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (8 have widened, 11 tightened) with few changes in the trends.
  • Telecom Italia savers are trading at 18.5% premium to ords; Handelsbanken B at 32.4% premium to A. The discount of Grifols B has tightened, some await a comeback from Brookfield. 
  • Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, Roche, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.

Smithfield Foods (SFD) : Peeking at the Prospectus of an Upcoming Q1 IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • American food giant with $14 billion in sales to go public in Q1
  • Company is a spin-off from WH Group which acquired Smithfield in 2013
  • Breaking down key points of the initial prospectus which was filed  on January 6th

[Earnings Preview] Halliburton Expected to Post Subdued Q4 Results on Tepid Upstream Activity

By Suhas Reddy

  • Halliburton’s revenue is projected to decline 1.7% YoY, with EPS down 18.6%, driven by subdued upstream activity induced by oil price volatility and weak global demand.
  • Halliburton expects a 1%-3% QoQ revenue decline, and a 75-125 bps margin drop in its Completion and Production segment for Q4.
  • In contrast, revenue from its Drilling and Evaluation (D&E) segment is forecasted to grow between 0% to 2%, with margins flat or improving by up to 50 bps.

Venture Global (VG): Rich Valuation Marks Questions About Being Already Priced for Perfection

By IPO Boutique

  • Largest Cash Raise for a company since July 2024 marking important event for Equity Capital Markets to start the calendar year
  • Rising and volatile natural gas prices combined with rich valuation nearly prices company to perfection
  • Deal color for potential price sensitive IPOs is crucial in determining near-term performance

PFIZER INC. Equity Research Flash Note – December 13, 2024

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • Our estimations for FY 2024 annual revenue range at around $62,766 million and for FY 2025 at around $63,080 million.
  • The company’s annual revenue was $58,496 million in 2023 compared to $100,330 million in 2022, post- ing a significant decrease by 41.7%.
  • Pfizer’s gross profit for FY 2023 was $33,542 million, decreased by 49.1% compared to $65,986 million for the corresponding period of 2022. 

JPM – 4Q24 Results Show Continued Strength in Core Income, Rising Non-Accruals Well Covered by LLR

By Daniel Tabbush

  • The 4Q24 results from JPM are strong with net profit up 50% YoY and 9% QoQ
  • The bank shows almost no deposit growth YoY but there is reasonable loan growth
  • While non-accrual loans are rising, JPM holds substantially and rising LLR for these

Beta Bionic, Inc. (BBNX) – Medical Device Company Targeting the Insulin Market Prepares for Q1 IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • ILet Bionic Pancreas Device autonomously determine every insulin dose without requiring a user to count carbohydrate intake
  • Revenue for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 was $44.7 million, more than 3.5x that of their annual revenue of $12.0 million for the year ended December 31, 2023.
  • We anticipate this company to set terms (share size, price range) in the next week for a late January / early February debut.

[Pre Earnings Options Flash] Schlumberger’s OI PCR Indicates Neutral Sentiment Ahead of Q4 Results

By Suhas Reddy

  • Schlumberger will report its Q4 earnings on 17/Jan, with revenue and EPS projected to rise sequentially and annually. Analysts hold a bullish outlook despite macroeconomic challenges.
  • Schlumberger’s OI PCR at 0.70, signalling neutral sentiment, with an 80% IV percentile indicating high volatility.
  • For the 17/Jan expiry, SLB’s OI shows calls concentrated at strikes 45, 47.5, and 50, while puts dominate at 37.5, 40, and 42.5, with lower put OI at key levels.

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