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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: ZTO Express Cayman , Samsung C&T, Park24 Co Ltd, Shenzhen International, S.F. Holding, Omni HR and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Increase in Velocity Could Lead to 3 Changes in March
  • Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 1Q 2025
  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Dec 2024 Ranks
  • Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Realisation of Asset Values
  • S.F. Holding (6936 HK) – Here’s Why Post-IPO Share Price Performance Is So “Boring”
  • Omni HR raises US$7.4M to simplify multi-country workforce management | e27


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Increase in Velocity Could Lead to 3 Changes in March

By Brian Freitas


Korean Holdcos Vs Opcos Gap Trading Opportunities in 1Q 2025

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we highlight the recent pricing gap divergences of the major Korean holdcos and opcos which could provide trading opportunities in 1Q 2025.
  • The recent martial law cancellation and numerous impeachments of acting Presidents have raised political uncertainty in Korea resulting in widening of some gaps among numerous holdcos and opcos in Korea.
  • Of the 38 pair trades, 25 of them involved holdcos outperforming opcos in the past six months and the other 13 opcos outperforming holdcos in the same period.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Dec 2024 Ranks

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
  • The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
  • Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-December 2024.

Shenzhen Intl (152 HK): Realisation of Asset Values

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • The listing of Air China Cargo and progress on the transformation and upgrading of its South China Logistics Park again demonstrated Shenzhen International (152 HK)‘s asset value. 
  • Its 8.8% stake in Air China Cargo is now valued at HK$10.6bn, or 61% of its market capitalisation, suggesting its other assets are almost free.
  • Government approval on the South China Logistics Park transformation Phase I has been obtained, implying potential land value gains to be booked. 

S.F. Holding (6936 HK) – Here’s Why Post-IPO Share Price Performance Is So “Boring”

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The Time-definite express services are actually a double-edged sword for S.F.- Although it helps S.F. establish core competitiveness, such strategy limits the Company’s market share and growth ceiling in China.
  • The issue here is that S.F. has encountered growth bottlenecks, but due to its heavy asset model, the only truly suitable solution is internationalization, which however is full of uncertainties.
  • S.F. is facing many challenges. The IPO final offer price of HK$34.3 is expensive, which might explain why S.F.’s share price has been a bit “boring” since its listing.

Omni HR raises US$7.4M to simplify multi-country workforce management | e27

By e27

  • Omni HR, a SaaS-based employee management startup based in Singapore, has closed US$7.4 million in funding.
  • The round was led by Picus Capital, with participation from Alpha JWC Ventures, January Capital, and Ratio Ventures.
  • This deal brought the startup’s total funding raised to date to US$9.8 million.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: DiDi Global and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Didi Global Q324 Results & Two Key Reasons Company May Consider A New Listing in 2025


Didi Global Q324 Results & Two Key Reasons Company May Consider A New Listing in 2025

By Daniel Hellberg

  • In Q324, Didi grew slowly, but core margin improved significantly on higher “take rate”
  • Q324 liquidity position sound, but pace of 2024 investment difficult to sustain
  • Two important reasons Didi could list shares in ’25, even if cash needs aren’t urgent

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Daily Brief Consumer: ITC Ltd, Endeavour Group /Australia, Macromill, Inc, Sun Art Retail, KT&G Corporation, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, JNBY Design Ltd, Cove and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ITC Hotels: Index Implications of Demerger from ITC Ltd (ITC IN)
  • Australia: Six Stocks in Passive Selling Crosshairs for February
  • ITC Hotels Demerger: Listing Anticipation and Index Implications
  • Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumping Its Offer Is Inevitable
  • Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): BABA Takes Massive Hit After Inking SPA @ HK$1.38
  • ITC Hotels Demerger: An Emerging Behemoth & Hospitality Play
  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (November and December 2024)
  • Can TSE’s “Examples of Bad Disclosures” Help Companies Shift to Shareholder-Oriented Management?
  • HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener:  Winners and Losers, Picks For 2025
  • Singapore’s Cove nets US$4.5M to scale co-living in South Korea, Japan | e27


ITC Hotels: Index Implications of Demerger from ITC Ltd (ITC IN)

By Brian Freitas

  • ITC Ltd (ITC IN) will demerge its Hotels business with the ex-date set as 6 January and shareholders receiving 1 share of ITC Hotels for 10 shares of ITC Ltd.
  • ITC Ltd (ITC IN) shareholders will own 100% of ITC Hotels – 60% will be owned directly and 40% will be owned through their shareholding in ITC Ltd (ITC IN).
  • There will be a lot of selling in ITC Hotels within a few days of listing from different passive index trackers and that could provide buying opportunities for those interested.

Australia: Six Stocks in Passive Selling Crosshairs for February

By Brian Freitas

  • Up to six Aussie stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in February. The final list of deletions depends on stock performance over the next 2-3 weeks.
  • If deleted, passive trackers will need to sell between A$370m-A$500m in the stocks. Impact is high at between 7-24 days of ADV.
  • The potential deletions have underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX) over every time period from 1 week to 3 months. Positioning is still low in a few stocks.

ITC Hotels Demerger: Listing Anticipation and Index Implications

By Nimish Maheshwari


Macromill (3978 JP): CVC Bumping Its Offer Is Inevitable

By Arun George

  • On 26 December, CVC extended its Macromill, Inc. (3978 JP) offer period by 10 business days to 17 January. The offer price remained unchanged, but it was not declared final.
  • The extension is unsurprising as the shares have traded above terms for 30 out of 32 trading days. The emergence of Oasis as the largest shareholder is an added complication. 
  • Lowering the minimum acceptance condition is not a viable option. A bump is increasingly likely. Trading patterns suggest a minimum required revised offer of around JPY1,200.

Sun Art Retail (6808 HK): BABA Takes Massive Hit After Inking SPA @ HK$1.38

By David Blennerhassett

  • HK$1.38/Share. That’s the key takeaway as Alibaba Group (9988 HK)  enters an SPA to offload its 78.7% stake in Sun Art (6808 HK) at HK$1.38/share, a 14.13% discount to undisturbed. 
  • The buyer, Paragon Shine, an entity under Chinese PE outfit DCP Capital, is paying ~HK$12.3bn compared to BABA’s HK$28.1bn purchase of a 51% stake in October 2020. 
  • Should the SPA complete, an unconditional MGO is triggered.  But the question is: why would BABA be cashing out at this price? 

ITC Hotels Demerger: An Emerging Behemoth & Hospitality Play

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • ITC Ltd (ITC IN) Hotels demerger aims to unlock the intrinsic value of the hotels business and enable a sharper focus on growth.
  • ITC Hotels is aiming to reach a portfolio of 200+ hotels with 18,000+ keys by 2030 from a robust pipeline of 140 Hotels with about 13000 Keys in 2024.
  • ITC Hotels inheriting a strong balance sheet with zero debt and cash reserves may list around 113-170 per share.

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (November and December 2024)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that have been buying back their shares in the Korean stock market in November and December 2024.
  • On average, the share buyback announcements for the 52 companies that announced share buybacks in Korea represented 2.2% of outstanding shares.
  • Major companies that have announced share buybacks in Korea in the past two months include Celltrion, Samsung Electronics, Doosan Bobcat, and Hyundai Motor. 

Can TSE’s “Examples of Bad Disclosures” Help Companies Shift to Shareholder-Oriented Management?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The most common example of poor disclosure is “Disclosure is merely a list of initiatives. The timing of achievement, numerical targets, necessary resources, etc. should be explained.
  • Poor disclosure examples that “do not analyze issues or consider additional actions in a flexible manner” may not have a well-reasoned plan to disclose at this stage.
  • It is clear that many companies are not sufficiently considering the reduction or withdrawal of unprofitable businesses, as evidenced by their low return on sales and return on capital.

HK-Listed Apparel & Footwear Screener:  Winners and Losers, Picks For 2025

By Sameer Taneja


Singapore’s Cove nets US$4.5M to scale co-living in South Korea, Japan | e27

By e27

  • Singapore-based flexible living platform Cove has announced a US$4.5 million funding round from existing investors, including Eurazeo and Keppel, along with Manchharam.
  • The capital will fuel the startup’s regional expansion and transition to an asset acquisition model. This strategic shift will allow it to design and develop properties specifically tailored to the needs of its target market: young professionals and students.
  • Cove’s expansion into South Korea and Japan is already underway, and the company has formed strategic joint ventures in both markets.

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Daily Brief Financials: ESR Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2024: De Grey, Insignia, ESR Group, Fosun Tourism, HKBN, Pentamaster, Beenos


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2024: De Grey, Insignia, ESR Group, Fosun Tourism, HKBN, Pentamaster, Beenos

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of December 2024, 13 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$16bn.
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in December was ~46%. The average premium in 2024 was ~43%.
  • This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Fulcrum Therapeutics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Fulcrum Therapeutics: Why Is There An Acquisition Interest Despite $80M Losmapimod Setback!


Fulcrum Therapeutics: Why Is There An Acquisition Interest Despite $80M Losmapimod Setback!

By Baptista Research

  • Fulcrum Therapeutics reported its financial results and business developments for the third quarter of 2024 and reported that it is realigning its focus towards the advancement of pociredir, an oral HbF inducer intended for the treatment of sickle cell disease, and its preclinical pipeline.
  • Previously, Fulcrum Therapeutics had been developing losmapimod for the treatment of facioscapulohumeral muscular dystrophy (FSHD).
  • However, the Phase III REACH trial did not demonstrate a significant difference between losmapimod and placebo on the primary or key secondary endpoints.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Weimob, AIA, Jd, Hkex


HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Weimob, AIA, Jd, Hkex

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Dec 20th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in Tencent,  Weimob, AIA, Jd, Hkex.

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Daily Brief Private Markets: KKday lands US$70M funding to bolster M&As in Asia Pacific and more

By | Daily Briefs, Private Markets

In today’s briefing:

  • KKday lands US$70M funding to bolster M&As in Asia Pacific, AI projects | e27
  • KPay nets US$55M for expansion amid Asia’s fintech slowdown | e27
  • Taiwan’s TMYTEK secures US$40M Series B to boost 5G, satellite tech | e27


KKday lands US$70M funding to bolster M&As in Asia Pacific, AI projects | e27

By e27

  • KKday, an e-commerce platform for tours, experiences and activities, has raised approximately US$70 million in a new financing round.
  • New and existing investors, including Cool Japan Fund, Taiwan’s National Development Fund, ZUU & De Capital Fund, CHBVC, and Darwin Ventures, participated in the round.
  • KKday has also secured several credit lines from financial institutions.

KPay nets US$55M for expansion amid Asia’s fintech slowdown | e27

By e27

  • KPay Group, a Hong Kong- and Singapore-based financial management and business operations platform, has secured US$55 million in its Series A funding round.
  • This round was led by Apis Growth Markets Fund III and Apis Global Growth Fund III, managed by Apis Partners, a UK-based ESG and impact-native global private equity asset manager.
  • The investment will fuel KPay’s expansion plans across key Asian economies, including Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand.

Taiwan’s TMYTEK secures US$40M Series B to boost 5G, satellite tech | e27

By e27

  • TMY Technology (TMYTEK), a Taiwanese provider of millimetre-wave (mmWave) solutions, has raised US$40 million in its Series B funding round. Amazing Microelectronic Corp. and EZconn Corporation led the round, which was participated in by CDIB Capital Group.
  • The funding will accelerate the company’s global expansion plans and bolster its research and development capabilities. It will focus on optimising mmWave phased array antenna modules.
  • TMYTEK, one of SparkLabs Taiwan’s portfolio companies, also aims to debut on the Taipei Exchange (TPEX) in 2025.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Charted Insights: India’s Fundraising Booms and Market Cycles; A Data-Driven Analysis and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Charted Insights: India’s Fundraising Booms and Market Cycles; A Data-Driven Analysis
  • FDI in India: 2000 to 2024 – A Journey to $1 Trillion
  • Portfolio Update: December 2024
  • Thematic Report: How India’s Steady and Structural Economic Changes Charting Path of Growth?


Charted Insights: India’s Fundraising Booms and Market Cycles; A Data-Driven Analysis

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Periods of market euphoria often create fertile ground for substantial fundraising activity, where companies—both established and speculative—seize the opportunity to raise capital. 
  • IPO surges and other equity fundraisers reflect heightened investor confidence and an increased appetite for risk.
  • However, as history shows, such periods of exuberance are often harbingers of steep market corrections.

FDI in India: 2000 to 2024 – A Journey to $1 Trillion

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • What’s New? India surpasses $1 trillion in cumulative FDI inflows since 2000, reflecting steady economic liberalization and targeted policy reforms post-2014.
  • Why It Matters?The milestone highlights India’s appeal as a global investment destination but reveals the need for balanced, inclusive growth across states and sectors.
  • How It Changes Your View?Despite high FDI, uneven distribution and low FDI-to-GDP ratio suggest India must optimize policies to maximize investment impact and address trade imbalances.

Portfolio Update: December 2024

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • Welcome to my last portfolio update! Yes, you read that right! In the coming weeks, I’ll be announcing why I stop publicly sharing the details of my investments.
  • But don’t worry—there’s even more exciting news ahead!
  • I’ve made the decision to leave my current job by the end of this year to dedicate 100% of my time to stock picking. This shift also means I’ll be expanding the offerings on Contrarian Cashflows to deliver even greater value to you. Stay tuned for more details soon!

Thematic Report: How India’s Steady and Structural Economic Changes Charting Path of Growth?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • India’s economy is surging, fueled by a record-high capital expenditure of 3.4% of GDP and a remarkable revenue growth to Rs. 25.8 trillion from Rs. 9.4 trillion in 2015-16
  • Despite global headwinds, the rupee remains resilient, backed by $684.8 billion in forex reserves. 
  • India is poised to become a global economic leader, mirroring China’s ascent, with its thriving services sector and ambitious growth targets.

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Daily Brief Credit: Bond Market Monitor: 2025 as Another Year for USD Bonds and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Bond Market Monitor: 2025 as Another Year for USD Bonds


Bond Market Monitor: 2025 as Another Year for USD Bonds

By Warut Promboon

  • The biggest event in 2024 which will impact rates in 2025 is perhaps the victory of Donald Trump, who promised to cut taxes and raise tariffs.
  • We do not believe the US economy could continue to grow at 3% annually with expectation of a recession in 2026. For 2025, we see declining consumption and sticky inflation.
  • Elevated rates are positive on fixed rate USD bonds as long as there is no rate hike of which we believe for 2025. 

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: EQD | FXI – Buy January Straddle and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | FXI – Buy January Straddle
  • Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Jan25), TSE Updates
  • EQD | HSI – Buy January Straddle
  • JSW Energy X O2 Power: 25 GW Powerhouse


EQD | FXI – Buy January Straddle

By John Ley

  • The implied move for January is considerably less than what has been experienced historically.
  • January punches above its weight in terms of both historic volatility (most volatile month) and the amount of price movement relative to that historic volatility.
  • 71% of the last 21 January’s have had a larger absolute return for the month than the current implied move of 5.7%. Average January move has been 8.62%.

Japan CorpGovReports: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Jan25), TSE Updates

By Travis Lundy

  • TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
  • 609 new CGRs were filed since 31-Nov-2024. Our tools show every report, links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. Input a name, see the changes.
  • A surprising number of smaller companies have yet to file a MCoCC/SP Awareness report. As cross-holdings get sold down, I expect they will become activists targets in 2025.

EQD | HSI – Buy January Straddle

By John Ley

  • The implied move for January is less than what has been historically experienced. Twenty of the last 27 years have had price movement > current implied move.
  • January punches above its weight in terms of both historic volatility (most volatile month) and the amount of price movement relative to that historic volatility.
  • January is one of the most volatility months of the year, only October having a higher average historic volatility

JSW Energy X O2 Power: 25 GW Powerhouse

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The acquisition of O2 Power brings with it a robust portfolio of 4,696 MW of renewable energy assets, wherein JSWE’s Current operational capacity stands at 7740 MW
  • JSW Energy’s total locked-in generation capacity will reach nearly 24,708 MW by June 2027, marking a substantial increase of 23% from its previous capacity of 20,012 MW
  • JSW Energy can leverage its in-house EPC and O&M capabilities to unlock further value from the 4.7 GW portfolio.

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