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Smartkarma Daily Briefs

Dec 30
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: InnoScience Suzhou Technology, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • InnoScience (2577 HK): Prices at Low End & Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timeline
  • TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up, What Impact Will It Have on the Foundry Industry?(II)
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Decline from Near Historical Highs; ChipMOS Discount

InnoScience (2577 HK): Prices at Low End & Lists Today; Index Inclusion Timeline

By Brian Freitas

  • InnoScience Suzhou Technology (2577 HK) has priced its IPO at HK$30.86/share, the low end of the range. Over half the shares have been allotted to cornerstone investors.
  • InnoScience Suzhou Technology (2577 HK) should be added to the HSCI in March and will be added to Southbound Stock Connect early March.
  • Inclusion in global indices will take place in 2026 and there will be supply in mid- and late-2025 following lock-up expiries.

TSMC (2330.TT; TSM.US): If Intel Was Split Up, What Impact Will It Have on the Foundry Industry?(II)

By Patrick Liao

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Spread Decline from Near Historical Highs; ChipMOS Discount

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +21.1% Premium; Spread Has Fallen From Previous Short Levels, Remains Elevated
  • UMC: -0.3% Discount; Middle of the Historical Trading Range, Not Compelling
  • ChipMOS: -1.2% Discount; Wait for Deeper Discount Before Going Long

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Dec 30
0

Daily Brief Health Care: Shanghai Henlius Biotech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (29 Dec) – Henlius, Vesync, SDHS New Energy, GA Pack, Makino, Malaysia Airports

Weekly Deals Digest (29 Dec) – Henlius, Vesync, SDHS New Energy, GA Pack, Makino, Malaysia Airports

By Arun George

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Dec 30
0

Daily Brief Financials: ESR Group , Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, NIFTY Index, Nikkei 225 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (30 Dec) – ESR, Canvest, Vesync, GAPack, SDHS New Energy, CPMC, Makino, Arcadium
  • EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 23 – 27
  • EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Stable Index Causes Risk-Premia Markdown.
  • EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly – December 23 – 27

Merger Arb Mondays (30 Dec) – ESR, Canvest, Vesync, GAPack, SDHS New Energy, CPMC, Makino, Arcadium

By Arun George

EQD | Kospi Index Options Weekly – December 23 – 27

By John Ley

  • Since the end of September the Kospi has been diverging from the Nikkie which has rallied as JPY has weakened. Both Kospi and KRW have been moving lower.
  • Vast majority of option trading is in short dated expiries. The largest volume day of the week saw 99% of trading in expires <= Jan 09
  • Implied vols were quiet but there was some increased tilt to skew making out-of-the-money Puts slightly more expensive.

EQD / NSE NIFTY50 Vol Update / Stable Index Causes Risk-Premia Markdown.

By Sankalp Singh

  • Nifty50 trading range was stable over the holiday shortened week. Option Markets responded accordingly, risk-premia was marked down. Monthly IV: 15.0% -> 11.5%.
  • Vol-Regime has switched back to “High & Down” state. Wait-and-watch approach recommended given year-end effects.. 
  • IV selloff has pushed entirety of term-structure into Contango. Skew has extended while Smile has compressed. Smile compression most notable in Monthly 10D Strangles. 

EQD | Nikkei Index Options Weekly – December 23 – 27

By John Ley

  • NKY looks to be playing catch-up with USD/JPY, rising 4.03% on the week and breaking out of recent range after not moving much in the first half of the month.
  • Implied volatility continues to slide lower with 1M implied vol down 2.5 points on the week.
  • Call volumes larger than Put volumes for the first time in a while on Fridays 1.80% price surge.

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Dec 29
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: How Much Higher Can TSLA Go? A Pullback Could Hit in Two Weeks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • How Much Higher Can TSLA Go? A Pullback Could Hit in Two Weeks
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 27th): China Southern Air, Guolian Securities, GWM, SMIC, Pharmaron, ZTE
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 27th): Tencent, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Weimob, Alibaba

How Much Higher Can TSLA Go? A Pullback Could Hit in Two Weeks

By Nico Rosti

  • Tesla (TSLA US) has been completelly defying gravity law in the weeks past the US Elections. If you are a long-term TSLA holder you may want to cover soon.
  • The rally may encounter strong resistance in the next 2 weeks, a pullback could happen in that time frame.
  • The analysis of our QUANTCHARTS can help pinpoint the support levels where to add positions again to existing TSLA holdings.

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 27th): China Southern Air, Guolian Securities, GWM, SMIC, Pharmaron, ZTE

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 97.3% as of Dec 27th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -3.2ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, real estate.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Southern Air, Guolian Securities, GWM, SMIC, Pharmaron, ZTE, Tigermed.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Dec 27th): Tencent, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Weimob, Alibaba

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of December 27th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for Tencent, SMIC, China Mobile, ICBC, Weimob, Alibaba.

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Dec 29
0

Daily Brief ESG: There Are Still Very Many Companies with High Cash on Hand Relative to Sales and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • There Are Still Very Many Companies with High Cash on Hand Relative to Sales

There Are Still Very Many Companies with High Cash on Hand Relative to Sales

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Of course, it’s desirable to be able to use cash to find effective investments, but it is important to return cash on hand with an immediate impact on ROE improvement.
  • Looking at all listed companies, there are a great many companies that have a large amount of cash on hand relative to sales.
  • Denso’s measures to reduce policy shareholdings plus share buybacks will directly improve ROE, even if the background was a desire to stem the rise in foreign shareholdings.

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Dec 29
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 29)- Wuxi AppTech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 29)- Wuxi AppTech, SK Bioscience, Kaken Pharma, Shionogi, Daiichi Sankyo

APAC Healthcare Weekly (Dec 29)- Wuxi AppTech, SK Bioscience, Kaken Pharma, Shionogi, Daiichi Sankyo

By Tina Banerjee

  • Wuxi AppTech is selling its US and UK-based cell and gene therapy unit to Altaris for an undisclosed sum. SK Bioscience expanded vaccine development partnership with Sanofi.
  • Celltrion received FDA approval for global phase 3 trial of Darzalex biosimilar. Shionogi has announced dissolution of two joint ventures (established in Shanghai and Hong Kong) with Ping An Insurance.
  • Kaken Pharmaceutical entered into a license agreement with J&J for the global development, manufacturing, and commercialization of a STAT6 program for an upfront payment of $30M.

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Dec 29
0

Daily Brief ECM: China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.29) – Haier Biomedical Plans to Merge with and Absorb Shanghai RAAS and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.29) – Haier Biomedical Plans to Merge with and Absorb Shanghai RAAS

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.29) – Haier Biomedical Plans to Merge with and Absorb Shanghai RAAS

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Haier Biomedical plans to merge with and absorb Shanghai RAAS through the issuance of shares, and both parties have signed a letter of intent for the potential merger.
  • Haier’s acquisition of RAAS helps connect the software and hardware of the blood industry and strengthen the company’s dominant position in the entire industry chain in the blood products industry.
  • The market value/financial performance of these two are far apart. If the acquisition is completed, it will help Haier improve financial performance, which is obviously more beneficial for Haier. 

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Dec 29
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Vesync (2148 HK): The Yang Family’s Scheme Offer Is Light but Likely Done and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Vesync (2148 HK): The Yang Family’s Scheme Offer Is Light but Likely Done
  • (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Makino, Henlius, GAPack, Nec Networks, Suntec REIT, VCredit, Pentamaster
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

Vesync (2148 HK): The Yang Family’s Scheme Offer Is Light but Likely Done

By Arun George

  • Vesync (2148 HK) disclosed a Cayman scheme privatisation offer from the Yang family at HK$5.60, a 33.3% premium to the last close price of HK$4.20. The offer is final.   
  • While the offer is marginally above the IPO price, it is light compared to sell-side price targets, peer multiples and historical trading ranges.
  • Nevertheless, the scrip option, irrevocables and no disinterested shareholder holding a blocking stake facilitate the scheme vote. The offer could be completed by May. 

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Makino, Henlius, GAPack, Nec Networks, Suntec REIT, VCredit, Pentamaster

By David Blennerhassett

Last Week in Event SPACE: Honda, Shanghai Henlius, Exedy, Arcadium Lithium

By David Blennerhassett

  • Honda (7267 JP)  announced a HUGE ¥1.1trln buyback. At ~¥1500/share, this would increase EPS by 17+%.  Buy the shares in the low ¥1,400s. Expect this to be a range trade.
  • Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)‘s Circular is now out. Hoome straight and done deal. 
  • Murakami-San has started selling Exedy Corp (7278 JP), earlier than expected. Best to get out first, ask questions later.

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Dec 29
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Harvest Time and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Harvest Time
  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Barbell Strategies and Fintech to Dominate in 2025
  • Edelweiss: Strong Q2FY25 | Focus on Value Unlocking
  • RPSG Ventures (RPSGV): BPO Business Has Normalized | FMCG Business Is Scaling Up
  • Nesco: Mixed Q2FY25, However Long-Term Prospects Remain Intact
  • SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings
  • InterDigital Inc.: These Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers
  • Acuity Brands: The Intelligent Spaces Expansion & Other Major Drivers
  • JAMF Holdings: International Expansion Powering Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers
  • Lithia Motors: Product Diversity & Pricing Strategy As A Strategic Growth Enabler! – Major Drivers

Grab Holdings (GRAB US) – Harvest Time

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Grab Holdings has expressed excitement for 2025, as it harvests the investments it has made in its laddered approach to new product offerings from Saver to Grab Unlimited in 2024. 
  • Having grown transacting users in 2024 through its Saver offering, Grab will focus on growing its premium offers in 2025. Groceries should outperform along with its offline dining initiatives. 
  • Grab will focus on lending growth at its DigiBanks in Malaysia, and Singapore in 2025 and will double down on its advertising offerings. Grab will book a 2025 net profit.

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) – Barbell Strategies and Fintech to Dominate in 2025

By Angus Mackintosh

  • GoTo Gojek Tokopedia remains optimistic for the coming year, with increasing focus on converting hemat users to take up more premium products and it expands its suite of fintech offerings. 
  • Focus on profitability will remain core, with an emphasis on product-led initiatives such as GoFood Plus and GoFood Express, and increasing emphasis on growing its fintech offering across products. 
  • GoTo is increasingly using AI to improve both the customer experience and improve efficiencies. Advertising will increasingly become a tool to improve take rates with Tokopedia providing valuable cash flow.  

Edelweiss: Strong Q2FY25 | Focus on Value Unlocking

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Edelweiss reported a strong Q2FY25 performance led by consistent scaling up of its businesses, especially the asset management businesses. Its insurance businesses are also growing rapidly but are loss-making currently.
  • The credit businesses are also growing well with the shift to the co-lending model. 75%+ of lending in NBFC is now being done through the co-lending model. 
  • Edelweiss’ focus is on value unlocking and debt reduction. The asset management businesses are ripe for unlocking and Edelweiss is exploring a stake sale via IPO for its alternatives business.

RPSG Ventures (RPSGV): BPO Business Has Normalized | FMCG Business Is Scaling Up

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • The FMCG business continues to sustain annualized revenue of INR 500cr+ and with Q2FY25 revenue at INR 146cr, it is possible that annualized revenue may now sustain at INR 550cr+.
  • After having bottomed out a couple of quarters ago, the BPO business – Firstsource Solutions (“FSL”), is now performing strong with 6.9% QoQ and 22.7% YoY growth in revenue.
  • Revenue in the Sports business varies significantly each quarter based on scheduling of the sports events. Accordingly, in Q2FY25, revenues were not significant at INR 20cr.

Nesco: Mixed Q2FY25, However Long-Term Prospects Remain Intact

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • Q2FY25 performance was mixed. IT Parks segment reported good growth at 2.5% QoQ and 8.5% YoY. BEC growth was mediocre at 8.5% YoY; QoQ is not comparable due to seasonality.
  • Nesco Foods reported 10% YoY growth, which was decent but could have been better, given this business is relatively new and has significant potential. EBIT margin also declined YoY.
  • Nesco is venturing into expressway wayside amenities development and management business, which appears synergistic and has potential to provide additional growth lever going forward.

SK Hynix(000660.KS): Insisting on HBM Technology and Continuing to Surpass Samsung in Net Earnings

By Patrick Liao

InterDigital Inc.: These Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • InterDigital, Inc.’s third-quarter 2024 results reveal a blend of strategic progress and financial growth, marking a potentially positive trajectory for the company, though not without challenges.
  • Key achievements include surpassing their revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and EPS targets, which catalyzed an upward revision of their 2024 revenue guidance by $145 million to $860 million.
  • This growth is primarily attributed to new license agreements with major industry players like OPPO Group, which now includes coverage of their branded devices, thereby resolving pending litigations.

Acuity Brands: The Intelligent Spaces Expansion & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Acuity Brands, a prominent player in the lighting and building management industry, reported a solid performance for its fiscal 2024 fourth quarter and full year, showcasing both growth and strategic progress.
  • The company’s net sales reached $1 billion in the fourth quarter, marking a 2% year-over-year increase, driven by gains in its Lighting and Intelligent Spaces businesses.
  • This growth is attributed to their strong product vitality and strategic pricing, helping to manage costs effectively.

JAMF Holdings: International Expansion Powering Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Jamf, a leading software company specializing in Apple device management and security solutions, reported strong third-quarter 2024 results, surpassing revenue and non-GAAP operating income expectations.
  • The company’s year-over-year revenue growth reached 12%, with subscription revenue comprising a dominant 98% of total revenue.
  • Non-GAAP operating income rose significantly to $27.7 million, reflecting a margin improvement from 9% to 17%.

Lithia Motors: Product Diversity & Pricing Strategy As A Strategic Growth Enabler! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lithia Motors, a significant player in the automotive retail sector, reported its financial results for the third quarter of 2024, showcasing both strengths and challenges.
  • The company’s revenue for the quarter reached a record $9.2 billion, representing an impressive 11% increase from the same period last year.
  • This growth was attributed to strategic expansions, improvements in cost efficiencies, and operational execution.

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Dec 29
0

Daily Brief Macro: Three Presidents in One Month in South Korea – What’s Next? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Three Presidents in One Month in South Korea – What’s Next?
  • U.S. November Core PCE Prices Significantly Softer than Core CPI

Three Presidents in One Month in South Korea – What’s Next?

By Douglas Kim

  • The acting South Korean President Han Duck-Soo was impeached by the South Korea’s Parliament on 27 December. Choi Sang-Mok (finance minister) is now the new, acting President of South Korea.
  • There could be multiple impeachments of acting Presidents in the next several weeks which would be unprecedented and raise further concerns about the lack of political stability in South Korea. 
  • Amid all this political uncertainty, Yoon Suk-Yeol’s approval rating has been improving sharply to more than 30%.

U.S. November Core PCE Prices Significantly Softer than Core CPI

By Alex Ng

  • November PCE prices at 0.1% overall and core has sharply underperformed gains of 0.3% in both overall and core CP
  • It eases some of the inflationary concerns generated by two straight gains of 0.3% in September and October core PCE prices.
  • Gains of 0.3% in personal income and 0.4% in spending are also on the low side of consensus, though still respectable in real terms.

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